Baltic
Dry Index. 1150 -50 Brent Crude 73.82
Spot Gold 2713 US 2 Year Yield 4.15 unch.
Increased wages, higher pensions, more unemployment insurance, all are of no avail if the purchasing power of money falls faster.
Bernard Baruch.
2024’s great stock bubble, bubbles on, what could possibly go wrong?
Look away from that falling Baltic Dry (shipping) Index and rising gold price now.
Asia markets rise after Wall Street gains on tame
inflation data; Aussie jobless rate drops to 8-month low
Updated Thu, Dec 12 2024 12:43 AM EST
Asia-Pacific markets were mostly higher
Wednesday, following gains on Wall Street that saw the Nasdaq Composite surge to
record highs after November’s inflation report met expectations.
Traders in Asia assessed jobs data from Australia, which showed the country’s
unemployment rate fell to an 8-month low of 3.9% in November, dropping from
4.1% the month prior. A poll of economists from Reuters had expected the rate
to rise to 4.2%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.28%
to close at 8,330.3.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.3% in
trading, while the Topix gained 1%.
South Korea’s Kospi index was up 0.9%,
while the small-cap Kosdaq was up 0.4% as investors assess the political
turmoil in the country.
On Thursday, South Korean President Yoon
Suk Yeol said he had no
intention to resign from office despite pressure from the public and
opposition parties following his brief martial law declaration last week.
China’s CSI 300 was up 0.9%. Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng index was
up 1.2% as investors awaited the city’s industrial production data for the
third quarter, which will be released later in the day.
In the U.S. on Wednesday, relatively tame
inflation data fueled hopes for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve
next week.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 1.77% to end at
20,034.89 and post an all-time high and a closing record.
The broad market S&P 500 gained 0.82% to
close at 6,084.19. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average was the outlier, falling 99.27 points, or
0.22%, to 44,148.56.
Nvidia rose
more than 3%, while Tesla advanced
nearly 6%, alongside a broader rise in several major companies.
Asia markets live: Australia job numbers, Hong Kong industrial output
CNBC Daily Open: Nasdaq climbs past 20,000,
powered by megacap tech gains
Published Wed, Dec 11 2024 8:35 PM EST
What you need to know today
U.S. inflation meets expectations
U.S.
inflation quickened in November, climbing to 2.7% on-year from
October’s 2.6%, while core inflation — which strips out food and energy prices
— remained unchanged at 3.3%. Both metrics were in line with forecasts. While
the inflation rate was higher, the majority of traders still expect the Fed to
lower its benchmark rate later this month, with the CME’s FedWatch Tool reporting a 95% likelihood.
Nasdaq reaches new high
Alphabet and Tesla climbed to
fresh highs on Wednesday, joining Amazon and Meta to propel the Nasdaq past
20,000 points for the first time. The four tech giants added roughly $416
billion in market cap for the day. The Nasdaq Composite surged
1.77% to close at 20,034.89. The S&P 500 gained 0.82%, but
the Dow Jones Industrial
Average fell 0.22%.
ETFs cross $1 trillion of inflows
The
exchange-traded fund industry has surpassed $1
trillion of total inflows for the first time ever, according to
research firm ETFGI and the Investment Company Institute. The fund that has enjoyed the
biggest demand so far this year is the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO),
which raked in roughly $100 billion. U.S. ETFs now have more than $10 trillion
in assets. The previous record for U.S. ETF inflows was about $920 billion in
2021.
OPEC cuts demand forecast again
OPEC has cut its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast for a fifth
straight month and by its largest amount yet, according to Reuters.
OPEC expects global oil demand to rise by 1.61 million barrels per day, down
from the previous forecast of 1.82 million bpd last month. It also cut its 2025
growth estimate to 1.45 million bpd from 1.54 million bpd. China accounted for
part of the latest downgrade, with Chinese oil demand expected to rise by
430,000 bpd in 2024, down from 760,000 bpd increase predicted in July.
[PRO] Alphabet’s quantum leap
The Nasdaq Composite crossed the
psychologically important 20,000-point mark for the first time ever on
Wednesday, partly thanks to Alphabet’s quantum
computing breakthrough. Wall Street analysts predict the shares can
run further.
The bottom line
Tech investors were cheering Wednesday as
four of the seven megacap tech stocks closed at all-time highs, with Amazon,
Meta, Tesla and Alphabet adding roughly $416 billion in market cap for the day.
The gains in tech come as November’s
inflation reading met expectations. The reading clears the way for the Fed to
cut rates, which is likely to send tech shares higher.
The enthusiasm could be short lived, however, in light of U.S. president-elect
Donald Trump’s plans to raise tariffs which will likely be inflationary.
The Fed will have to halt its easing cycle if inflation remains stubborn,
removing one of the key impetuses behind the tech rally.
Tesla, whose stock has risen by about
71% this year, may be the outlier since the bulk of its gains have come on the
back of Trump’s election
victory last month.
More
CNBC Daily Open: Nasdaq climbs past 20,000, powered by megacap tech gains
Stock futures slip after Nasdaq notches record
close above 20,000: Live updates
Updated Thu, Dec 12 2024 12:16 AM EST
U.S. stock futures slid Thursday morning
after the tech-heavy Nasdaq
Composite finished above the 20,000 level for the first time.
Futures tied to the Nasdaq 100 slipped
0.16%. S&P 500 futures were
down 0.14%. Dow Jones
Industrial Average futures fell 96 points, or about 0.22%.
In extended trading, software giant Adobe declined 9% following
the company’s weaker-than-expected revenue guidance for the current quarter.
During Wednesday’s regular trading
session, the Nasdaq gained around 1.8%, topping the 20,000 threshold and
posting an all-time high and a closing record. The broad market S&P 500 added 0.8%.
Meanwhile, the 30-stock Dow underperformed,
falling around 99 points, or 0.2%.
Equities are “rebounding from a poor start
to the week,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide.
To be sure, “Expectations are elevated, and valuations are at the highest level
since the technology bubble,” Hackett added. “While seasonality and technical
tailwinds are supportive through year end, investors are likely to be more
discerning and selective next year as risk and reward are scrutinized.”
November’s consumer
price index report also came in line with economists’ estimates,
leading investors to anticipate another rate cut from the Federal Reserve at
its policy meeting next week. The CPI reading, which tracks prices across a
basket of goods and services, rose 0.3% month over month and grew at a 12-month
rate of 2.7%. Fed funds futures trading data reflects a nearly 99% likelihood
that central bank policymakers will lower rates next week, according to
the CME FedWatch tool.
Additional inflation data awaits on
Thursday morning, with the release of the producer price index report for
November. Economists polled by Dow Jones see a 0.2% increase on a monthly
basis. Weekly jobless claims are also due.
On the earnings front, chip giant Broadcom, home furnishings
company RH and
retailer Costco Wholesale are
due to post results after the close.
Stock market today: Live updates
Finally, the world’s oldest surviving bond, it’s Dutch.
Happy 400th birthday to the world’s oldest bond
10 December 2024
Over hundred years ago [?400?] — on New
Year’s Day in 1624 — drifting ice on the river Lek in the Netherlands smashed
up a dike outside Utrecht. This was a pretty big problem in a country that is
roughly one-third below sea level.
Soon, the region was flooded, with even
Amsterdam threatened by the water. The locals eventually managed to staunch the
flood, but they still needed to do a full, durable rebuild — which would be
extremely expensive.
Fortunately, the Dutch were brilliant,
sophisticated financial pioneers, and had developed the era’s most vibrant bond
market. The local water authority — called Hoogheemraadschap Lekdijk Bovendams
— swiftly sold over 50 bonds that raised about 23,000 Carolus guilders to
finance the repairs.
Of these bonds the only surviving one is a
1,200 guilder bond sold on December 10, 1624, to a wealthy woman in
Amsterdam called Elsken Jorisdochter. In return for her money, the water board
promised Jorisdochter, her descendants or anyone who owned the bearer bond 2.5
per cent interest in perpetuity.
Remarkably, this bond is still alive and
pays €13.61 of interest a year. Yesterday, the current owner — the New York
Stock Exchange — collected £299.42 of owed interest for the bond’s 400th
birthday, which FT Alphaville was able to attend.
More
Happy 400th birthday to the world’s oldest bond
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Is
the same true for the USA next?
Why
Unemployment in Canada Is Worse than It Looks
We’re
reaping the pain of needlessly high interest rates and an overhyped ‘labour
shortage.’
10
December 2024
Statistics
Canada recently released its labour force data for November. This month’s data
reflected an unusual combination of good news and bad news.
There
was a strong gain in employment: 51,000 new jobs. That is a very respectable
pace of job creation.
But
counterintuitively, there was also a major jump in the unemployment rate. It
increased from 6.5 per cent in October to 6.8 per cent in November. The number
of officially unemployed increased to over 1.5 million — the highest since July
2021, back when the labour market was just coming out of COVID lockdowns.
How
did we get both higher employment and higher unemployment at the same time? The
answer lies on the supply side of the labour market
While
employment (the demand for labour) grew by 51,000 in November, the apparent
supply of labour (measured by the “labour force” — people either working or
actively seeking work) grew by 138,000. Even 51,000 new jobs couldn’t keep up,
and the result was higher unemployment despite higher employment.
There
were two reasons for the big jump in labour supply in November. Canada’s
population is still growing very rapidly, despite recent federal government
efforts to slow down inflows of both permanent immigration and temporary
migrants (the latter of which surged dramatically after 2022, as employers
turned to migrant labour to address so-called labour shortages).
The
working-age population grew 80,000 in November. In the last year, it’s grown by
1.2 million (or 3.6 per cent), historically fast.
This
was amplified in November by a rebound in the participation rate — that is, the
proportion of the working-age population in the labour force (working, or
actively seeking it).
The
participation rate has been slowly sliding for the last two years. This has
been a predictable consequence of higher interest rates and the resulting
economic slowdown: people are less likely to join the labour market and search
for work when fewer vacancies are available. That decline in participation
reverses improvements that occurred after the COVID lockdowns — when, for a
short while, help-wanted signs were everywhere, leading more potential workers
to throw their hats in the ring.
---- A light
shone on hidden non-employment
November’s
unusual combination of strong job creation alongside rising unemployment casts
a spotlight on deeper issues raised by population growth and labour force
participation in Canada.
Declining
participation in the last two years has meant that the slackening of Canada’s
labour market under the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes has been significantly
worse than the unemployment rate suggests. In effect, due to lower
participation, much of the growth in non-employment among working-age Canadians
was hidden from the official unemployment statistics.
More
Why Unemployment in Canada Is Worse than It Looks | The Tye
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Biden's
COVID-19 Response Eroded Civil Liberties
Tue,
December 10, 2024 at 11:00 AM GMT
When
Joe Biden was sworn in as president in January 2021, he had good reason to be
optimistic about the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite being widely
criticized for—and arguably losing his first reelection because of—the
perceived insufficiencies of his coronavirus response, President Donald Trump
had successfully overseen Operation Warp Speed. As a result of this
public-private partnership, federal health officials were able to grant
emergency authorization for COVID-19 vaccines by the end of 2020, a much faster
than expected timetable. In the first few months of Biden's presidency,
millions of Americans got vaccinated and COVID-19 cases dropped rapidly.
The
fantastic news was short-lived. Infection numbers began to climb
again in
the summer of 2021 with the rise of the delta variant. While health officials
had initially suggested that the vaccines would prevent infection—a claim
also repeated
by Biden himself—it
turned out that they offered limited protection in this regard. More
Americans died
of COVID-19 during Biden's first year in office than Trump's last.
How
did Biden respond to these problems? By doubling down on the most intrusive and
least justified pandemic prevention policies: mandates and lockdowns. These
policies proved incredibly ineffective at stopping COVID-19.
In
September 2021, Biden declared
a national vaccine mandate—not just for federal workers, but for 80 million
employees of private companies as well. Despite having personally assured
Americans that he would not require them to get vaccinated if he was elected
president, Biden left employees of businesses that employed more than 100
people no choice but to comply. He did not seek approval from Congress. Rather,
Biden simply declared that he already possessed the power to impose a vaccine
mandate under workplace safety laws. His own press secretary, Jen Psaki, had previously
declared that
the administration believed such a mandate is "not the role of the federal
government"; Biden apparently changed his mind. Weeks later, the Supreme
Court struck
down the mandate,
declaring it an unconstitutional overreach.
Biden
also required
masks and social distancing for the federal work force. While the
administration did not formally require masks and distancing in private
settings, the administration's health advisers certainly encouraged state and
local officials to adopt such policies. Rochelle Walensky, head of the Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) under Biden, continued to issue
guidance in support of such disruptive mitigation efforts well
into 2022.
Most
notoriously, the CDC offered explicit
justifications for
government officials all over the country to keep schools closed, even as it
became increasingly clear that COVID-19 was not particularly threatening for
school-aged kids or a significant vector for out-of-school transmission. State
and local governments listened, at least in blue states. By year two of the
pandemic, many restaurants, offices, warehouses, and movie theaters were again
open for business, even as schools in those areas remained closed. This was
completely backward, and it continues to have profound effects on young people
who suffered learning
loss from
being kept out of the classroom for so long.
Throughout
his time in office, Biden empowered officials to violate Americans' liberties
in the name of fighting COVID-19. There is little evidence those policies
worked.
Biden's COVID-19 Response Eroded Civil Liberties
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Storm
Darragh leaves UK solar farm in pieces in blow to green energy
Published: 21:34, 9 December 2024 | Updated: 14:16, 10
December 2024
Owners of a solar farm torn
to pieces were among those counting the cost of killer Storm Darragh - as
recovery work was ongoing on Monday.
Hundreds of panels at the
giant 190-acre Porth Wen solar farm in Anglesey, North Wales - only built two
years ago - were blown off their mountings, some ripped to shreds.
The site at Llanbadrig, in
the north of the island which is owned by French power firm EDF Energy and
powers up to 9,500 households, now needs significant repairs.
Elsewhere on the island of
Anglesey, blades were sheared off a wind turbine which then reportedly
caught fire.
Work was continuing yesterday
to reconnect thousands of homes left without power and reopen a string of
railway lines in Wales and the West Country which were blocked by fallen trees.
Storm Darragh brought severe
gusts which reached 96mph at Berry Head, Devon, and gales to the whole Irish Sea coast
extending eastwards inland.
A rare red weather warning
was issued for the west of England and Wales warning people not to go out
unless essential and avoid making journeys by road.
More
Storm Darragh leaves UK solar farm in pieces in blow to green energy |
Daily Mail Online
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Fundamentals
might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the
last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania
runs wild and prices go parabolic... There is no training, classroom or
otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's
the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market.
Paul Tudor Jones.
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