Baltic
Dry Index. 1167 +07 Brent Crude +71.12
Spot
Gold 2633 U S 2 Year Yield 4.10 -0.05
The advocates of public control cannot do without inflation.
They need it in order to finance their policy of reckless spending and of
lavishly subsidizing and bribing the voters.
Ludwig von Mises.
In
the stock casinos, the Great Trump Bubble, bubbles on, until one day it
unexpectedly bursts. What’s not to like until that day the bubble bursts?
S&P
500 rises to a record close Friday, posts third straight winning week: Live
updates
Updated
Fri, Dec 6 2024 4:31 PM EST
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose to
fresh records on Friday after November jobs data came in slightly
better than expected, but not so hot as to deter the Federal Reserve from
cutting rates again later this month.
The
broad market S&P 500 climbed 0.25% to 6,090.27. Tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced
0.81% to 19,859.77, bolstered by gains in Tesla, Meta Platforms and Amazon. Both indexes touched new
all-time highs during the session and closed at records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped
123.19 points, or 0.28%, to close at 44,642.52.
The
S&P 500 and Nasdaq went on to their third straight positive week as well,
rising 0.96% and 3.34%, respectively. The Dow slipped 0.6% during the period.
The
November labor report, released Friday morning, revealed that nonfarm payrolls
increased by 227,000 last month, above the Dow Jones estimate of 214,000 and
marking a huge hike from October’s upwardly revised gain of 36,000. The
unemployment rate nudged up to 4.2%, as expected.
Following
the not-too-hot, not-too-cold unemployment data, fed funds futures trading data
reflected an 85% likelihood of another rate cut in two weeks to 85%, according
to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
“You’re
seeing a labor market that is not weak but is definitely softening, and that is
more than anything else what is giving traders more confidence in the 25
basis-point rate cut here at the upcoming meeting,” said Luke O’Neill,
portfolio manager at Catalyst Funds.
“It’s
not gangbusters, but we’re doing reasonably solid from an economic perspective
and yet there is enough of a softening on the labor side to give plenty of air
cover for the Fed to lower rates here,” he said.
Given
the continued strength of the U.S. economy, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has
previously said that policymakers do not need to be “in a hurry to
lower rates.”
Stock
market news for Dec. 6, 2024
European
stocks close higher amid French political uncertainty; Direct Line up over 6%
Updated
Fri, Dec 6 2024 11:33 AM EST
European
markets closed slightly higher on Friday as investors in the region reviewed
the latest political developments in France.
The
pan-European Stoxx 600 provisionally
ended up 0.2%, erasing earlier losses. France’s CAC 40 index was 1.4%
higher, despite ongoing political turmoil in the country.
Investors
are still digesting a
vote that toppled French Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s minority government on
Wednesday evening — a motion backed by both left and right-leaning lawmakers
after Barnier forced
his contested budget through parliament without a vote.
The
country’s President Emmanuel Macron then gave a
defiant speech criticizing politicians for not thinking about “the
voters.” He insisted he would see out the remainder of his presidency, which
will see him stay in office until 2027.
Barnier resigned
from his post Thursday morning, but will continue in a caretaker role while Macron selects a
replacement.
The
euro was last seen 0.1% lower at $1.0571 on Friday following a rise in the
previous session.
In
Asia, markets
were mixed, with traders monitoring political instability in South Korea
following President Yoon Suk Yeol’s brief imposition of martial law.
Across
the Atlantic, U.S.
stocks rose after November jobs data came in better-than-expected. The
labor report, released on Friday, revealed that nonfarm payrolls increased by
227,000 in November, above the Dow Jones estimate of 214,000 and marking a huge
hike from October’s gain of just 12,000.
European
markets trade higher amid French instability
Payrolls
increased 227,000 in November, more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.2%
Published
Fri, Dec 6 2024 8:30 AM EST Updated Fri, Dec 6 2024 10:34 AM EST
Job
creation in November rebounded from a near-standstill the prior month as the
effects of a significant labor strike and violent storms in the Southeast
receded, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
Nonfarm
payrolls increased by 227,000 for the month, compared with an upwardly revised
36,000 in October and the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 214,000. September’s
payroll count also was revised upward, to 255,000, up 32,000 from the prior
estimate. October’s number was held back by impacts from Hurricane Milton and
the Boeing strike.
The
unemployment rate edged higher to 4.2%, as expected. The jobless figure rose as
the labor force participation rate nudged lower and the labor force itself
declined. A broader measure that includes discouraged workers and those holding
part-time jobs for economic reasons moved slightly higher to 7.8%.
The
data likely gives the Federal Reserve a green light to lower interest rates
later this month.
“The
economy continues to produce a healthy amount of job and income gains, but a
further increase in the unemployment rate tempers some of the shine in the
labor market and gives the Fed what it needs to cut rates in December,” said
Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
Job
gains were focused in health care (54,000), leisure and hospitality (53,000),
and government (33,000), sectors that have consistently led payroll growth for
the past few years. Social assistance added 19,000 to the total.
At
the same time, retail trade saw a decline of 28,000 heading into the holiday
season. With Thanksgiving coming later than usual this year, some stores may
have held off hiring.
Worker
pay continued to rise, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% from a month ago
and 4% on a 12-month basis. Both numbers were 0.1 percentage point above
expectations.
The
report comes with questions over the state of the labor market and how that
will impact Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates.
Traders
accelerated their bets on a rate cut following the payrolls release, with
market-implied odds rising above 88% for a quarter percentage point reduction.
when central bank policymakers make their next decision on Dec. 18.
more
Jobs
report November 2024: Payrolls up 227,000; unemployment at 4.2%
In
other news, a 1930s trade war looms.
China
fires back at Trump’s 10% tariff proposal with a 20% price cut on domestic
products — Beijing's policy will negatively affect chipmakers, including Nvidia
and Intel
6
December 2024
Following
President-elect Trump’s announcement of his plan to impose an additional 10%
tariff on Chinese goods, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) of the People’s Republic
of China (PRC) released a draft proposal that gives domestically produced items
a 20% price evaluation advantage in government procurement. According to DigiTimes Asia, while this move was primarily an answer to
America’s proposed import taxes, it will affect all non-Chinese products,
making them less competitive versus locally produced goods.
However,
even though this 20% advantage applies to any item manufactured within China,
the MOF proposal primarily focuses on industrial manufacturing goods, except
for agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery products, and mineral
resources. Experts also say this policy targets American products sold in
China, which could negatively impact some of the largest chipmakers, like Intel
and Nvidia. This is especially true as China remains one of the bigger markets
despite the numerous and ever-increasing sanctions the U.S. has applied to
Beijing.
The
call to focus more on domestically produced products, especially in the chip
sector, isn’t limited to the PRC government. Some of China’s largest industry
associations, including the Internet Society of China, China Semiconductor
Industry Association, China Association of Automotive Manufacturers, and China
Association of Communications Enterprises, have all called on Chinese companies to reduce their reliance on
American-made chips and instead prioritize domestic products or expand
cooperation with other international partners. The China Semiconductor Industry
Association even released a press release saying, “U.S. chip products are no
longer safe and reliable, and China’s industry will have to purchase American
chips cautiously.”
All
these moves seem to be fueled by Washington’s expansion of its. While many
China-based firms say that these sanctions won’t stop China’s chip industry, the
Chinese government is still reacting with its export restrictions, especially
in rare earth metals. Aside from that, many Chinese firms are pushing forward
with innovations of their own to replace the sanctioned items. While they’re
still not yet self-sufficient when it comes to the latest semiconductor
technologies, they have taken leaps and bounds trying to catch up with the
West.
French
anger at 'sneaky' EU food deal with South American countries
6
December 2024
The
EU has exploited the power vacuum in Paris to push through a trade deal with
South American countries vehemently opposed by French ministers and farmers.
European
Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen jetted to Montevideo, Uruguay, to
conclude the trade deal yesterday, which she described as a ‘win-win
agreement’.
The
free trade arrangement, which follows nearly 25 years of negotiations, was
agreed at a meeting of the Mercosur trade bloc, which also includes Brazil,
Argentina and Paraguay.
But
the deal was agreed while the French government was in a state of paralysis
following the resignation of Prime Minister Michele Barnier on Thursday after a
no-confidence vote.
President Emmanuel Macron is in talks and said he hopes to
announce a successor ‘in the coming days’.
News
of the deal provoked anger among farmers who fear it will pave the way for
cheaper imports.
But
the European farmers’ group COPA-COGECA immediately reiterated its opposition
to the agreement and called for a “flash” protest in Brussels on Monday.
EU
countries and the European Parliament “must now firmly challenge the terms of
this agreement,” the group said.
France,
which has been rocked by successive protests by farmers saying the agreement
would bring unfair competition, has tried to forge a blocking minority of EU
countries.
Poland
has rallied to France’s side, and Italian government sources say Rome believes
“the conditions are not met” to back the deal. The Netherlands and Austria have
also expressed reservations.
France’s
minister for trade, Sophie Primas, said of Ms von der Leyen’s announcement:
‘Today is not the end of the story.... This only commits the commission, not
the (EU) member states.’
But
Germany, desperate to open more trade opportunities amid gloom for its
manufacturing sector, had strongly come out in favour of the EU-Mercosur deal,
as had Spain.
The
agreement would create a sprawling free-trade zone of more than 700 million
people.
But
the EU-Mercosur deal still needs approval from at least 15 of the European
Union’s 27 member nations representing 65 percent of the EU population, as well
as the European Parliament.
More
French anger at 'sneaky' EU food deal with South American countries
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
German industrial production shrinks unexpectedly
6
December 2024
Industry in Germany remains in crisis,
with companies unexpectedly cutting back their production again in October –
particularly in the crisis-ridden automotive industry.
Figures
released by the Federal Statistical Office on Friday show that production in
the energy and construction sectors fell by 1% in real terms compared to
September.
Analysts had expected an average increase
of 1%. In a year-on-year comparison, production fell unexpectedly sharply by
4.5%.
"The downward trend in industrial
production continues," wrote economist Jupp Zenzen. "Production is
falling to its lowest level since the pandemic."
High costs, economic uncertainty, a
shortage of skilled workers and bureaucracy are weighing on companies, Zenzen
said. The order books remain flat.
However, the production downturn in the
previous month of September was somewhat less severe than previously thought.
The Federal Statistical Office revised the month-on-month decline to 2% from
the previously reported 2.5%.
While construction output stagnated in
October, energy production fell by almost 9% when seasonally and
calendar-adjusted.
Manufacturing industry shrank by 0.3%.
This was due to a 1.9% decline in production in Germany's ailing automotive
industry.
German industrial
production shrinks unexpectedly
CBI
downgrades forecast for UK economy after Budget
Friday
06 December 2024 6:00 am | Updated: Thursday
05 December 2024 4:42 pm
The
UK economy is set for slower than expected and “unimpressive” growth in 2025
thanks partly to punitive measures introduced in October’s Budget, a leading
business group has predicted.
The
Confederation of British Industry (CBI) now expects Britain’s economy to grow
by just 1.5 per cent next year, it said in its latest economic forecast, a sizeable
downgrade from the 1.9 per cent it predicted for the year in June.
The
weaker outlook partly reflects the toll that measures in the Chancellor’s
maiden Budget will have on firms and consumers, with the CBI citing the higher
employment costs businesses will face in light of the minimum wage rise and
hike to employers national insurance contributions.
It
added that the £70bn of additional public sector spending announced by the
Chancellor in October will also crowd out private sector investment in, further
dampening its expectations for the UK economy. In 2026, the lobby group expects
there to be two per cent – or £6bn – less business investment than it had
predicted in June, mostly because of the rapid splurge of government spending
the government plans next year.
The
industry body, the UK’s largest, now expects UK gross domestic product (GDP)
growth to come in at 0.9 per cent, marginally lower than the one per cent it
forecast half a year ago.
Following
next year’s forecast of 1.6 per cent growth it expects GDP to rise by 1.5 per
cent in 2026.
The CBI said that
the uptick in economic growth anticipated in 2025 will mostly be down to higher
household spending, as monetary conditions become looser and the economic
shocks from the pandemic and energy crisis move into the rear-view mirror. It
expects the Bank Rate to be cut to 3.5 per cent at the start of 2026.
“The
government’s focus on stability is welcomed by businesses of all sizes as a
vital pre-condition for growth,” said Louise Hellem, the chief economist at the
CBI.
“But
with consumers and businesses continuing to feel the squeeze, there is work to
be done to get momentum back into the economy.”
The
CBI’s decision to revise down its forecast for private investment in the UK
economy will be a particular blow to the Chancellor, who has regularly argued
that additional public sector investment through flagship initiatives like GB
Energy and the National Wealth Fund will do the opposite and ‘crowd in’ private
capital.
Hellem
added: “Measures in the Autumn Budget will increase firms’ costs at a time
when their profit margins have already been under pressure.
“Many
businesses have told us that these measures will likely push up prices and
weigh on their hiring and investment plans going forward.”
The
CBI’s chief executive, Rain Newton-Smith, has been particularly critical about
the employer national insurance reforms, which comprised a cut to the threshold
at which payments kick in as well as a rise to the overall rate employers will
pay.
Speaking
at the body’s recent annual conference, she said that “tax rises like
this must never again simply be done to business”.
CBI downgrades forecast for UK economy after Budget
Covid-19
Corner
This section will
continue until it becomes unneeded.
NHS warns of potential 'quad-demic' as flu,
norovirus, Covid and RSV cases on the rise
Thursday 5 December 2024
at 3:42pm
Fears of a potential
"quad-demic" are rising, with a 350% increase in flu cases and an 86% rise in norovirus cases in hospitals compared to the same
week last year, the NHS England has said.
The health service has
said it is "busier than it has ever been before" this winter, with
cases of Covid-19 and RSV
(respiratory syncytial virus) also increasing in hospital wards.
Those who are eligible,
and NHS staff, are being urged to get their vaccinations without delay as virus
levels rise, with pressure on hospitals expected to increase further over the
coming weeks.
So, how bad are the
difficulties faced by the NHS this winter? Here, ITV News takes a look at the
latest figures.
What is a quad-demic?
A quad-demic is a way of
describing the co-circulation of four "very common viruses" at this
time of year – influenza virus, RSV, coronavirus and norovirus.
"The first three are
respiratory viruses – they cause colds and more severe diseases of the lung;
norovirus causes diarrhoea and vomiting," John Tregoning, a professor in
vaccine immunology at Imperial College London, told ITV News.
"They are what are
known as endemic viruses – there is low level circulation of them most of the
time, as opposed to pandemics which are the massive outbreaks."
"Viral infections
are more common in winter. They tend to peak in the last four weeks of one year
and the first four weeks of the following one," he added.
How much are cases rising this winter?
New weekly figures,
published for the first time this year, show a 350% increase in flu cases, and
an 89% rise in norovirus cases in hospitals compared to the same week last
year.
Rising Covid-19 and RSV
levels are also a concern, with an average of 1,390 patients with Covid in
hospital beds each day last week, and 142 children in hospital each day with
RSV.
The NHS says the latest
data shows it is going into winter under more pressure than ever before, with
an average of 1,099 people in hospital with flu every day last week compared to
243 in the same week last year – the highest number of cases heading into
winter for at least three years.
"We are still only
at the start of December, so we expect pressure to increase and there is a long
winter ahead of us," said NHS national medical director, Professor Sir
Stephen Powis.
More
NHS warns of potential 'quad-demic' as flu,
norovirus, Covid and RSV cases on the rise | ITV News
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Scientists discover revolutionary method that makes fuel from
water and sunlight — but it's not finished yet
5
December 2024
Scientists in Japan have demonstrated a new proof-of-concept
reactor that can harvest renewable hydrogen fuel from sunlight and water.
The
new 1,076-square-foot (100 square meters) reactor uses photocatalytic sheets to
split apart the oxygen and hydrogen atoms found in water molecules, thus
siphoning the hydrogen away to be used as fuel.
While
the technology remains in its infancy, the scientists behind the research say
that, if more efficient photocatalysts can be developed, their breakthrough
could enable the production of cheap, sustainable hydrogen fuel to meet various
energy needs. They published their findings Dec. 2 in the journal Frontiers
in Science.
"Sunlight-driven
water splitting using photocatalysts is an ideal technology for
solar-to-chemical energy conversion and storage, and recent developments in
photocatalytic materials and systems raise hopes for its realization,"
senior author Kazunari
Domen, a chemistry professor at Shinshu University in Japan, said in a
statement. "However, many challenges remain."
Upon
being exposed to light, photocatalysts boost chemical reactions that break
water molecules down into their constituent parts. However, most existing
"one-step" catalysts — which decompose water into hydrogen and oxygen
in one go — are extremely inefficient, leaving most of the hydrogen fuel to be
refined using natural gas, a fossil fuel.
To look for a way past this deadlock, the researchers behind the
new study investigated a photocatalyst that uses a more sophisticated two-step
process, with one step separating out the oxygen and the next step removing the
hydrogen.
Creating a photocatalyst for this process enabled the scientists
to build their prototype reactor, which ran for three years and worked even
better using real sunlight than the ultraviolet light used in the lab.
"In our system, using an ultraviolet-responsive
photocatalyst, the solar energy conversion efficiency was about one and a half
times higher under natural sunlight," first author Takashi
Hisatomi, a researcher at Shinshu University, said in the statement.
"Simulated standard sunlight uses a spectrum from a slightly high latitude
region. In an area where natural sunlight has more short-wavelength components
than simulated reference sunlight, the solar energy conversion efficiency could
be higher."
Despite these promising gains, the efficiency of the reaction is
still too low for commercial use.
"Currently, the efficiency under simulated standard sunlight
is 1% at best, and it will not reach 5% efficiency under natural
sunlight," Hisatomi said.
To make the important strides to increase efficiency, the
scientists have called on others to create better photocatalysts and larger
reactors. Work on safety will also be vital: Hydrogen fuel refining also
produces the explosive byproduct oxyhydrogen, which can be safely disposed of
in the two-step process.
"The
most important aspect to develop is the efficiency of solar-to-chemical energy
conversion by photocatalysts," Domen said. "If it is improved to a
practical level, many researchers will work seriously on the development of
mass production technology and gas separation processes, as well as large-scale
plant construction. This will also change the way many people, including
policymakers, think about solar energy conversion, and accelerate the
development of infrastructure, laws, and regulations related to solar
fuels."
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. 1707 Handel goes
hunting with Diana the Huntress, in grand baroque style, including “echos”. Approx.
8 minutes.
G.F.Handel:
'Alla caccia / Diana Cacciatrice', Cantata HWV 79 (1707)
G.F.Handel: 'Alla
caccia / Diana Cacciatrice', Cantata HWV 79 (1707) - YouTube
This
weekend’s WW2 update. Approx. 14 minutes.
Why
America Turned Down the 17-Pounder & Sherman Firefly – A Costly Mistake?
Why America Turned
Down the 17-Pounder & Sherman Firefly – A Costly Mistake?
This
weekend’s final diversion. Chess again.
Approx 28 minutes.
Gukesh
vs Ding || GAME 7 || FIDE World Chess Championship Match 2024
Gukesh vs Ding ||
GAME 7 || FIDE World Chess Championship Match 2024
There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom
brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis
should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit
expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system
involved.
Ludwig von Mises.
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