Baltic
Dry Index. 1055 -51 Brent Crude 73.42
Spot Gold 2688 US 2 Year Yield 4.18 +0.03
The first method for estimating the intelligence of a ruler is to look at the men he has around him.
Niccolo Machiavelli.
With both the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank cutting interest rates yesterday, strangely stocks sold off.
Buy the rumour sell the fact, or something more?
Look away from that rapidly flattening US yield curve now.
Asia markets mostly fall as investors assess
China’s stimulus pledges; South Korea stocks climb
Updated Fri, Dec 13 2024 11:11 PM EST
China stocks led losses in Asia Friday
after Beijing affirmed
its recent policy shifts and stressed on plans to boost growth following
a high-profile meeting Thursday.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 1.39%,
while mainland China’s CSI 300 was down 0.94%.
Most other Asia-Pacific markets also fell,
tracking Wall Street declines following a hotter-than-expected
producer price inflation reading.
The outlier was South Korea’s Kospi, which gained 0.23%, while
the small-cap Kosdaq rose 1.01%. Internet firm Kakao gained over 5%, with many
of its subsidiaries seeing huge gains.
Shares of Samsung Biologics, the
fourth-largest company in the Kospi by market cap, rose 3.6%.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 1.16%, while
the broad-based Topix saw a smaller loss of 1.12%.
Investors also assessed the Bank of
Japan’s Tankan survey, which showed a higher-than-expected optimism among large
Japanese manufacturers.
The Tankan index for large manufacturing
firms climbed to 14 in the quarter ended December, up from 13 in the September
quarter and beating the 12 expected from economists polled by Reuters.
The index tracks business sentiment in the
country among large companies and contributes to the BOJ’s considerations when
forming monetary policy. A higher figure means that optimists outnumber
pessimists, and vice versa.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.69%.
India will also release its wholesale
inflation figures for November later in the day. Economists polled by Reuters
expect India’s wholesale inflation rate to come down to 2.2% from October’s
2.36%. The country’s consumer
inflation dropped from a 14-month high, according to data released
Thursday.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major
indexes slid, with the Dow
Jones Industrial Average losing 0.53% to mark its sixth straight
losing day after a hotter-than-expected inflation reading.
The producer
price index, which measures wholesale inflation, climbed 0.4% for November,
higher than the Dow Jones estimate of 0.2%. On an annual basis, PPI advanced
3%, its biggest rise since the 12 months ended February 2023.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq retreated from the
20,000 mark and shed 0.66%, while the broad market S&P 500 shed 0.54% .
Asia markets live: Japan Tankan, India WPI
Dow futures are little changed after index posts
longest losing streak since April: Live updates
Updated Fri, Dec 13 2024 7:45 PM EST
Dow futures were little changed in
overnight trading Thursday following a losing
session on Wall Street.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered
near the flatline. S&P
500 futures advanced nearly 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures rose
0.5%.
Broadcom gained
14% after posting fiscal fourth quarter adjusted earnings that topped estimates
and reporting that artificial
intelligence revenue soared 220% for the year. Shares of home
furnishing company RH popped
18% on strong revenue growth guidance.
The overnight moves come on the heels of a
losing session on Wall Street. The 30-stock Dow dropped 234 points, or
about 0.5%, falling for a sixth consecutive day and marking its longest losing
streak since April. The Nasdaq
Composite fell nearly 0.7% and broke below the 20,000 mark as
technology stocks such as Nvidia slumped,
while the S&P 500 edged
down about 0.5%.
For the week, the Dow is heading for a
1.6% decline, while the S&P 500 is on pace for slide of 0.6%. The Nasdaq
has outperformed, on track for a 0.2% advance for the period.
Thursday’s moves followed a producer
price index report for November that came in ahead of expectations.
Wholesale prices increased 0.4% last month, higher than the Dow Jones consensus
estimate of 0.2%.
The recent rise in equities has fanned
some concerns of an overvalued market fueled by a postelection rally, but some
on Wall Street think there may still be more room to run.
More
Stock market today: Live updates
New eras, same bubbles: the forgotten lessons of
history
With US equities at record valuation
peaks, investors should re-examine their risk appetite
John
Hussman December 11, 2024
New eras, same bubbles: the forgotten lessons of history
In other news.
European Central Bank delivers final rate cut of
the year
12 December 2024
The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut
its deposit rate for the fourth time this year, by 25 basis points to 3%.
This is the rate for banks to make
overnight deposits and also serves as the main tool for the ECB to steer the
monetary policy stance.
The step was widely anticipated by the
market, with further cuts on the horizon in 2025.
The ECB's two other interest rates were
lowered too, new interest rates have been set at 3.15% for main refinancing
operations (for banks that borrow funds from the ECB on a weekly basis) and
3.4% for the marginal lending facility (overnight credit to banks against broad
collateral).
As inflation nears the ECB's 2% target,
there is more focus on the Eurozone's ongoing weak growth. The bloc is expected
to grow 0.8% this year and 1.3% next year, according to forecasts from the
European Union's executive commission.
The ECB started cutting the main interest
rates in June 2024 to boost the Eurozone's lagging economy, through lower rates
to encourage borrowing, extra spending and added investment.
After the widely anticipated cut, all eyes
are on ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference on Thursday
afternoon, as new risks have emerged since the bank's last meeting on 17
October, including the political turmoil in the Eurozone's two strongest
economies and the results of the US election.
Investors are watching signs of what rate
the ECB is eyeing to stop the cuts and also what inflation and economic
projections the central bank is looking at to shape its monetary policy in
2025.
European Central Bank delivers final rate cut of the year
Mirafiori factory shutdown extends amid declining
demand
12 December 2024
The Italian Mirafiori factory in Turin is
facing an increasingly severe crisis. In December 2024, a decision was made to
temporarily halt production due to low demand for the electric Fiat 500e.
Unfortunately, January is not looking any better.
Representatives of the Stellantis group
have just announced that the enforced shutdown of the Turin factory will last
longer than initially planned. The break, initially intended to last
through all of December and conclude on 5th January, has been extended by
another two weeks—until 20th January.
The plant's employees will begin
the new year with mandatory leave. The production halt is due to
insufficient demand for the electric Fiat 500e, as well as two luxury Maserati
models—the GranTurismo and GranCabrio.
This is just the latest in a series
of similar decisions made by the Italian factory authorities in recent
months. Unfortunately, there are no signs that Stellantis is on the
right track to solve the problem.
Giuseppe Manca, Stellantis HR director,
assured Italians in November that despite the difficulties, the company would
not close any factories in Italy. Time will tell how long he maintains this
commitment.
Mirafiori factory shutdown extends amid declining demand
Two German shipyards file applications for
insolvency
12 December 2024
Two German shipyards have filed
applications for insolvency, authorities said on Thursday.
Flensburger Schiffbau-Gesellschaft (FSG),
based in the northern city of Flensburg, and Nobiskrug in nearby Rendsburg are
affected, according to spokesmen for district courts in Flensburg and
Neumünster.
The two sites are owned by the Tennor
Group, a holding company founded by German investor Lars Windhorst.
The shipyards have been struggling
financially due to a lack of orders, with salaries repeatedly being paid late.
Windhorst received sharp criticism from
politicians in the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein, with Premier Daniel
Günther calling on him to stand aside.
Günther has previously said the
possibility of insolvency would not be a shock. "Perhaps it could also
mean a new opportunity," the state premier said in Flensburg last month.
Staff meetings are due to be held with
insolvency administrators, union representatives and government officials on
Thursday.
Germany's shipbuilding industry has
suffered from soaring costs in recent years, with the Meyer Werft shipyard - a
major employer in northern Germany and a leading builder of cruise ships - set
to receive a public bailout from the German government.
Last week, the European Commission ruled
under the EU Merger Regulation that the government rescue package does not pose
any competition concerns across the EU's common market.
Two German shipyards file applications for insolvency
Budget deficit swells in November, pushing fiscal
2025 shortfall 64% higher than a year ago
Published Wed, Dec 11 2024 2:08 PM EST Updated
Wed, Dec 11 2024 2:55 PM EST
The U.S. budget deficit swelled in
November, putting fiscal 2025 already at a much faster pace than a year ago
when the shortfall topped $1.8 trillion, the Treasury Department reported
Wednesday.
For the month, the deficit totaled $366.8
billion, 17% higher than November 2023 and taking the total for the first two
months of the fiscal year more than 64% higher than the same period a year ago
on an unadjusted basis.
The increase came despite receipts that
totaled $301.8 billion, about $27 billion more than last November. Outlays
totaled $668.5 billion, or nearly $80 billion more from a year ago.
The increase in red ink brought the
national debt to $36.1 trillion as the month drew to a close.
On an adjusted basis, the deficit was $286
billion and has totaled $544 billion year to date, an increase of 19%.
Though the Fed has enacted two rate cuts
since September totaling three-quarters of a percentage point, interest
expenses continue to be a big contributor to the deficit. Net interest expenses
totaled $79 billion on the month and are now at $160 billion for the fiscal
year, outpacing all other outlays except Social Security, Medicare, defense and
health care.
The Treasury Department expects to pay
$1.2 trillion this year in total interest on debt.
Budget deficit swells in November, pushing fiscal 2025 shortfall 64% higher than a year ago
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Fears
for Macy's as chain sees sales slump amid store closures
December
11, 2024
Macy’s
is facing a rough holiday season after revealing disappointing sales figures
and slashing its profit outlook. The grim outlook provided by bosses this
morning has sparked fears for the future of the much-loved retailer, which is
already in the process of shutting a third of its stores. Sales at the iconic
department store chain - which also owns Bloomingdale's - fell by 2.4 percent
in the quarter ending in November. Macy's also significantly lowered its
expected earnings for 2024.
Shares
plummeted more than 12 percent in early trading on the news. They had already
fallen 22 percent this year. Adding to the turmoil, Macy’s is dealing with an
accounting scandal involving a single employee who hid over $150 million in
delivery expenses. The company insists this was but admits the error has cost
them $79 million in their full-year outlook. A retail expert told DailyMail.com
that while there may be more store closures, Macy's still makes a profit and so
was not a bankruptcy risk.
The
troubled department store chain announced in February that it would shut 150
over the next three years - including 55 by the end of 2024 . It will be left
with just 350 stores - a far cry from the peak of around 1,100 in 2008. Since
then it has been in steady decline.
Macy's
has yet to announce exactly which stores will be affected, but employees are
speculating whether their location could be on the chopping block. The latest
to emerge is at the Kingston Collection Nall in Massachusetts, but will stay
open for locals to shop there through the holidays and close in early 2025.
On
this morning's quarterly earnings, retail expert Neil Saunders - from
GlobalData - said: 'Macy’s outlook is very mixed. There is still a big dose of
decline in the numbers, but the chain isn’t at the bottom of the department
store league table – which is positive. ' The numbers are not expected to
strengthen significantly over the year ahead as the consumer economy remains
pressured and Macy’s is in the middle of a turnaround program.
More
Fears for Macy's
as chain sees sales slump amid store closures
Mark
Bouris warns Australia now on the ‘verge of a full-blown recession’
One
of Australia’s top finance experts has issued a grim warning about the economy
- and shared a telling clue about what’s to come.
December
11, 2024 - 12:46PM
The
Reserve Bank of Australia has just handed down another interest rate decision.
For
the ninth time in a row, they’ve kept interest rates on hold at 4.35 per cent.
But
this time around, the RBA made a massive pivot.
For
the first time in years, the Reserve Bank hinted at a coming interest rate cut.
In
its statement, the RBA noted that growth in output has been weak.
It
noted that wage pressures have eased.
It
said incomes and consumption have recovered slower than predicted.
More
importantly, the RBA said that inflation has eased and is moving to target.
This
is code for a coming rate cut, and frankly, it’s about time.
There’s
no doubt that interest rates had to go up.
For
a long time, inflation was too high.
But
now, the negative impacts of high interest rates outweigh the benefits.
High
interest rates have slowed the economy to the point whereby we’re on the verge
of a full-blown recession.
High
interest rates are killing household budgets because the cost of servicing
mortgages has skyrocketed.
As
a result, households are spending less money at the shops.
That
means businesses are seeing their sales tank at the same time as their costs
rise.
If
the situation gets any worse for businesses, bosses will have to cut their
costs.
That
means they’ll have to let go some of their workers, which will drive
unemployment and see people forced onto the dole.
This
is a recipe for disaster, and the Reserve Bank can’t let it happen as a result
of its one-dimensional anti-inflation crusade.
By
the way, the situation out there is worse than the economic figures out from
the RBA and the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggest. Because the economy is
being propped up by government policies.
First
of all, record-high immigration is artificially inflating economic growth.
That’s
hiding the full extent of the pain households and businesses are feeling at the
moment.
The
same goes for public sector spending.
The
majority of new jobs being created at the moment are in the public sector.
The
taxpayer is paying for all of that.
Meanwhile,
the private sector is struggling.
Business
investment is down.
New
private sector jobs aren’t being created.
But
the boom in the public sector is hiding this.
It’s
making things look better than they really are in the economic data published
by the ABS.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
More vaccine promoting propaganda?
Latest Symptoms of COVID-19: New Strain Presents Like the Common Cold
Published Dec 12,
2024 at 3:30 AM EST
Another year is drawing
to a close, with another strain of the coronavirus making the rounds.
But this time, medical
professionals say it might be harder to distinguish whether you have COVID-19,
the flu or the common cold without taking a test.
What Is the Newest COVID-19 Strain?
The latest strain of the
virus is XEC, which is a subvariant of the Omicron strain. It differs from
other strains because it's a combination of two preexisting Omicron
descendants, Dr. Scott Roberts, an infectious disease specialist at the Yale
School of Medicine, said in October.
That means the XEC strain
is more transmissible than many of its predecessors, but on the upside, the
symptoms associated with it will likely be milder, Roberts said.
What Symptoms Are Associated With the XEC Strain?
The U.S. Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says the most common symptoms associated
with COVID-19 are:
·
Cough
·
Runny nose or congestion
·
Sore throat
·
Fatigue
·
Shortness of breath
·
Diarrhea
·
Loss of taste or smell
·
Fever
Many of these symptoms
also overlap with cold and flu symptoms, which is why experts say it's
important to take a test to confirm the illness and treat it accordingly.
More
What are the Symptoms of COVID-19? Latest Strain Presents Like the Common
Cold - Newsweek
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene
stacking discovery could herald new era for quantum applications
December 10, 2024
Graphene, a single layer of carbon atoms arranged in
a two-dimensional honeycomb lattice, is known for its exceptional properties:
incredible strength (about 200 times stronger than steel), light weight, flexibility,
and excellent conduction of electricity and heat. These properties have made
graphene increasingly important in applications across various fields,
including electronics, energy storage, medical technology, and, most recently,
quantum computing.
Graphene's quantum
properties, such as superconductivity and other unique quantum behaviors, are
known to arise when graphene atomic layers are stacked and twisted
with precision to produce "ABC stacking domains." Historically,
achieving ABC stacking domains required exfoliating graphene and manually
twisting and aligning layers with exact orientations—a highly intricate process
that is difficult to scale for industrial applications.
Now, researchers at NYU
Tandon School of Engineering led by Elisa Riedo, Herman F. Mark Professor in
Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, have uncovered a new phenomenon in
graphene research, observing growth-induced self-organized ABA and ABC stacking
domains that could kick-start the development of advanced quantum technologies.
The findings, published
in a recent study in the Proceedings of the National
Academy Of Sciences , demonstrate how specific stacking arrangements
in three-layer epitaxial graphene systems emerge naturally—eliminating the need
for complex, non-scalable techniques traditionally used in graphene twisting
fabrication.
These researchers, including
Martin Rejhon, previously a post-doctoral fellow at NYU, have now observed the
self-assembly of ABA and ABC domains within a three-layer epitaxial graphene
system grown on silicon carbide (SiC). Using advanced conductive atomic force
microscopy (AFM), the team found that these domains form naturally without the
need for manual twisting or alignment. This spontaneous organization represents
a significant step forward in graphene stacking domains fabrication.
The size and shape of these
stacking domains are influenced by the interplay of strain and the geometry of
the three-layer graphene regions. Some domains form as stripe-like structures,
tens of nanometers wide and extending over microns, offering promising
potential for future applications.
"In the future we could
control the size and location of these stacking patterns through pregrowth
patterning of the SiC substrate," Riedo said.
These self-assembled ABA/ABC
stacking domains could lead to transformative applications in quantum devices.
Their stripe-shaped configurations, for example, are well-suited for enabling
unconventional quantum Hall effects, superconductivity, and charge density
waves. Such breakthroughs pave the way for scalable electronic devices
leveraging graphene's quantum properties.
This discovery marks a major
leap in graphene research, bringing scientists closer to realizing the full
potential of this remarkable material in next-generation electronics and
quantum technologies.
Graphene stacking discovery could herald new era for quantum applications
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another weekend and a developing puzzle in Syria and stocks. Trouble in Germany, France and South Korea too. What will the US central bank do on interest rates next week? The market has priced in another 0.25 percent cut. They wouldn’t dare disappoint the market, would they? Have a great weekend everyone.
It is
better to act and repent than not to act and regret.
Niccolo
Machiavelli.
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