Baltic
Dry Index. 1051 -04 Brent
Crude 74.49
Spot
Gold 2648 U S 2 Year Yield 4.25 +0.07
Gold, unlike all other commodities, is a currency...and the
major thrust in the demand for gold is not for jewelry. It's not for anything
other than an escape from what is perceived to be a fiat money system, paper
money, that seems to be deteriorating.
Alan Greenspan.
In
the stock casinos, more wobble or something worse?
Dinosaur
Graeme’s prediction for stocks in 2025, the worst year ever, as economic troubles
in China, the EU, UK, Canada and the USA lead to a near global depression.
Look
away from that rapidly uninverting US Treasury yield curve now!
Sadly,
I also think that food price inflation will continue, generating real hardship
for those losing their jobs.
Dow
slides for a seventh straight day for longest losing streak since 2020: Live
updates
Updated
Fri, Dec 13 2024 4:31 PM EST
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell
for a seventh session on Friday, posting its longest run of losses since 2020.
The
blue-chip index lost 86.06 points, or 0.2%, to close at 43,828.06. The Nasdaq Composite gained
0.12% to 19,926.72. The S&P
500 ended the session little changed, closing at 6,051.09.
For
the week, the Dow posted a 1.8% decline, while the S&P 500 slid about 0.6%
and ended a three-week winning streak. The Nasdaq rose 0.3% during the period.
“We’re
kind of stuck in this trading range,” Jay Hatfield, CEO at Infrastructure
Capital Advisors, told CNBC. “The Nasdaq will outperform, small caps will
underperform, [and the] Dow will underperform till we get some catalyst.”
Nvidia fell more than 2%,
and Meta Platforms shed
more than 1%. Amazon shares
were also marginally lower. On the other hand, Broadcom reached a
market cap of $1 trillion, rallying more than 24% after posting fiscal
fourth-quarter adjusted earnings that beat estimates and reporting that artificial
intelligence revenue soared 220% for the year.
The
moves come on the heels of a losing session on Wall Street for the three major
averages. The Nasdaq Composite also broke below the 20,000 threshold.
Stock
market news for Dec. 13, 2024
Europe
stocks close lower, snap three-week winning streak; UK and German data
disappoints
Updated
Fri, Dec 13 2024 12:02 PM EST
European
markets closed lower Friday as investors reacted to disappointing data prints
from two of the region’s largest economies.
The
pan-European Stoxx 600 provisionally
closed 0.62% lower, also recording a weekly loss after three weeks in the
green.
Friday’s
downbeat mood followed unexpected declines in both U.K.
GDP and key
export data from Germany.
The
U.K. economy contracted by an estimated 0.1% on a monthly basis, the ONS said Friday, with officials attributing the downturn
to a decline in production output. Economists polled by news agency
Reuters had projected a 0.1% rise in GDP in October.
In
France, President Emmanuel Macron named
Francois Bayrou his new prime minister on Friday. The announcement
comes after weeks of political turmoil in the country, during which
lawmakers ousted
former prime minister Michel Barnier.
The
French CAC 40 index had traded slightly higher following the news, but slipped
in late deals and closed 0.23% lower.
On
Thursday, the European Central Bank lowered
its key interest rate by 25 basis points, marking its fourth and final
rate cut of the year. Policymakers also signaled the possibility of more
reductions in 2025.
The
Swiss National Bank also cut
rates on Thursday by a larger-than-anticipated 50 basis points, while
Denmark’s central bank announced a 25 basis point reduction.
Central
bank watchers are now turning their attention to next week and rate decisions
from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly fell overnight, led by losses in China after Beijing affirmed
its recent policy shifts and stressed plans to boost growth after a
high-profile meeting Thursday.
U.S.
stocks opened higher, though the S&P 500 remained on
course for its first weekly decline in four weeks.
Europe
stocks close lower, snap three-week winning streak
In
other news, poor France . Poor Germany too. The wind stopped blowing and it
turned cloudy just as the weather turned colder. Green energy anyone?
Moody's
hands France surprise downgrade over deteriorating finances
13
December 2024
PARIS
(Reuters) -Credit ratings agency Moody's unexpectedly downgraded France's
rating on Friday, adding pressure on the country's new prime minister to corral
divided lawmakers into backing his efforts to rein in the strained public
finances.
The
downgrade, which came outside of Moody's regular review schedule for France,
brings its rating to "Aa3" from "Aa2" with a stable outlook
for future moves and puts it in line with those from rival agencies Standard
& Poor's and Fitch.
It
comes hours after President Emmanuel Macron named on Friday veteran centrist
politician and early ally Francois Bayrou as his fourth prime minister this
year.
His
predecessor Michel Barnier failed to pass a 2025 budget and was toppled earlier
this month by left-wing and far-right lawmakers opposed to his 60 billion euro
belt-tightening push that he had hoped would rein in France's spiraling fiscal
deficit.
The
political crisis forced the outgoing government to propose emergency
legislation this week to temporarily roll over 2024 spending limits and tax
thresholds into next year until a more permanent 2025 budget can be passed.
"Looking
ahead, there is now very low probability that the next government will
sustainably reduce the size of fiscal deficits beyond next year," Moody's
said in a statement.
"As
a result, we forecast that France's public finances will be materially weaker
over the next three years compared to our October 2024 baseline scenario,"
it added.
More
Moody's
hands France surprise downgrade over deteriorating finances
Cold
without wind: German ‘dunkelflaute’ brings electricity prices to crisis levels
and depletes gas reserves
German
consumers will pay almost €400 per megawatt hour on Thursday, the highest
figure since the end of 2022
Madrid
- DEC 12, 2024
- 16:26 WET
Dunkelflaute is a cursed
word in the German electricity sector. The combination, typical of cold
anticyclones, of low temperatures (which increase demand) and the almost total
absence of wind (which hinders wind generation) configures one
of the worst possible scenarios for the price of electricity: it forces the
burning of more gas in combined cycle plants, which are much more expensive,
and that substantially increases the bill. This dreaded cocktail, which is
currently hitting Central Europe, is leading the price of electricity in
Europe’s largest economy to levels not seen since the energy crisis.
German
consumers will have to pay an average of €395 ($414) per megawatt hour (MWh) on
Thursday, the highest value since December 2022, at the height of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine and when fears about European natural gas supplies were
more than justified. In some parts of the day, you would have to go back even
further to find similar values: between 5 p.m. and 6 p.m., the German wholesale
market exceeded €936 ($981) per megawatt hour. This is the highest figure in 18
years.
The
main factor behind this escalation is the lack of wind. While at this time of
year Germany’s powerful wind power sector (onshore and offshore) usually
averages almost 20 gigawatts (GW) of power, according to data from the
specialist portal Montel, thus becoming the country’s main source of
electricity, on Wednesday it will just exceed 3 GW. With the cloudy
skies, solar photovoltaic
power is
also operating well below its potential and forces combined cycle plants — in
which gas is burned to obtain electricity — to operate at a higher rate than
usual, driving up prices.
Unlike
the worst days of the 2022 energy crisis — when the
price of gas, at historic highs due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, was the
main trigger and the main focus of concern — now the situation is purely
temporary: when the wind returns and temperatures rise, the wholesale
electricity market should also return to normal. In fact, this is not the first
episode of this kind in recent months: in November, the bad streak of wind
power pushed the German price above €800 ($839) per MWh in some hourly periods,
only to fall back in the following days.
Less
gas stored
Relying
on combined cycles to meet demand not only has an impact on prices. Gas stored
in underground tanks, a variable that has been closely scrutinized since the
energy crisis, has fallen sharply in recent weeks. Compared to 98% of gas in
early November, German reserves of this vital fuel for heating and industry are
currently around 87% and have accelerated their decline in recent days.
The
average European reserves are at 80% of their capacity, also falling sharply
(by 15 percentage points) over the last five weeks. In November, for example,
the decline in continental reserves was the fastest since 2016 due to the
greater use of combined cycles and also heating. “Reserves are decreasing more
than expected, although they remain at very healthy levels,” say analysts at
Arcano Research.
More
Coffee
prices climb to near 50-year highs — and it may take years for the rally to run
out of steam
Published
Fri, Dec 13 2024 1:06 AM EST
A
record-breaking rally for coffee prices shows no sign of slowing down, analysts
say, with some warning it could take years for one of the world’s most traded
commodities to recover.
Arabica coffee futures with
March delivery hit a fresh intraday high of 348.35 cents per pound on Tuesday,
notching their highest level in nearly 50 years. The contract has since cut
some of its gains but remains up a whopping 70% year-to-date.
The
last time the price for arabica beans, the world’s most popular variety, traded
that high was in 1977 when snow destroyed large areas of Brazilian plantations.
Renowned
for their smooth taste and sweet flavor, arabica beans make up between 60% to 70% of the global coffee
market. They are commonly used in espressos and other barista-made coffee.
Drought
and high temperatures, alongside a global reliance on supplies from relatively
few regions, are regarded as the primary drivers for the recent price rise.
Robusta
futures, meanwhile, also climbed to a fresh record high in late November.
Robusta beans are known for their strong and bitter flavor and are typically
used in instant blends.
The
extraordinary price rally for coffee, which is considered the second-most
traded commodity by volume, after crude oil, comes amid concerns over the 2025
crop in Brazil, by far the world’s largest producer.
“The
country experienced its worst drought in 70 years during August and September,
followed by heavy rains in October, raising fears that the flowering crop could
fail,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Denmark’s Saxo Bank, said in a
research note published Tuesday.
For
some, the poor growing weather in Brazil means it could take a long time for
coffee prices to unwind.
“History
suggests that coffee prices will only ease back as and when supply improves and
stocks are replenished,” David Oxley, chief climate and commodities economist
at Capital Economics, said in a research note published on Nov. 29.
“Crucially,
this is a process that can take years, not months,” Oxley said.
More
Coffee
prices: Analysts warn it may take years for the rally to fade
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
Remember what we're looking at. Gold is a currency. It is still,
by all evidence, a premier currency, that no fiat currency, including the
dollar, can match.
Alan Greenspan.
German
central bank cuts growth forecasts as headwinds intensify
13
December 2024
Germany's
central bank on Friday sharply downgraded its growth forecasts for next year
and 2026, predicting a prolonged period of weakness for Europe's biggest
economy as it battles multiple headwinds.
From
a manufacturing slowdown and weak export demand to heightened political
uncertainty at home and the risk of renewed trade tensions under US
President-elect Donald Trump, the German economy is facing a perfect storm.
The
Bundesbank forecast output will grow a meagre 0.2 percent in 2025, down from a
forecast in June of a 1.1 percent expansion. For 2026 it forecast growth of 0.8
percent, down from a 1.4 expansion expected previously.
The
estimates are substantially worse than the last projections from the government
released in October, and will ring alarm bells among policymakers who had hoped
for a strong rebound starting next year.
"The
German economy is not only struggling with persistent economic headwinds, but
also with structural problems," said Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel, as he
unveiled the bank's latest six-monthly forecast.
As
widely expected, the central bank also cut its forecast for 2024 to a
contraction of 0.2 percent -- which largely lines up with other recent
estimates, including from the government.
The
latest bleak forecast is a headache for Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who already
faces an uphill battle to persuade voters to re-elect him at polls expected in
February, seven months earlier than scheduled.
More
German central
bank cuts growth forecasts as headwinds intensify
UK economy unexpectedly declines as
services sector stalls
13 December 2024
The UK economy
unexpectedly declined in October, as a weak month for pubs and restaurants
dragged on growth amid some uncertainty ahead of the autumn Budget.
The Office for
National Statistics (ONS) said gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 0.1% in
October.
Most economists
had been expecting GDP to rise by 0.1% during the month.
The latest
figures from the ONS come after it recorded 0.1% growth between July and
September, a slowdown on the 0.4% increase between April and June.
Liz McKeown, the
ONS’s director of economic statistics, said: “The economy contracted slightly
in October, with services showing no growth overall and production and
construction both falling.
“Oil and gas
extraction, pubs and restaurants and retail all had weak months, partially
offset by growth in telecoms, logistics, and legal firms.
“However, the
economy still grew a little over the last three months as a whole.”
UK economy unexpectedly declines as services sector stalls
MSNBC ratings collapse postelection, Fox
News surges as cable faces an uncertain future
December 12,
2024
When a
sports team loses, its fans don't hang around for the postgame show.
The same goes
for the tribal habits of cable news audiences.
Viewers have
fled left-leaning MSNBC since Vice President Kamala Harris lost the
presidential race to former President Trump on Nov. 5. The audience for the
Comcast-owned channel is down 46% compared to the first 10 months of 2024,
according to Nielsen data.
CNN, which has
long battled ratings swings dictated by news coverage, is down 33% after the
election.
Fox News, which
last week presented Trump with its “Patriot of the Year” honor, has seen its
audience surge. In November, the Murdoch family's network captured a 70% share
of the cable news audience in the weeks since the president-elect won another
term in the White House; that's the largest in its history.
The ratings
tumult comes at a time when the cable business is facing an existential crisis,
as more consumers are forgoing the pay-TV subscriptions that provide most of
its revenue.
The corporate
parents of the major news outlets are facing business challenges as well.
CNN is expected
to make significant workforce cuts early next year as its parent company,
Warner Bros. Discovery, tries to reduce debt.
Comcast is
spinning off MSNBC and its other cable networks into a new company so that the declining business does not drag
down its stock price. Some of MSNBC's biggest stars, including Rachel Maddow,
Joy Reid and Stephanie Ruhle, have been asked to take pay cuts, as revenues and
profits come under pressure.
While Fox News
is more dominant than ever in the ratings, its corporate parent, Fox Corp.,
also faces uncertainty.
Rupert Murdoch’s attempt to give control of his media empire to his son Lachlan was rejected by a Nevada
probate commissioner this week. The proposed change in the family trust, which
aimed to cut out the more liberal-leaning Murdoch siblings, has led to
speculation that there could be a conflict over the network’s conservative
direction after the 93-year-old mogul dies.
While those
factors loom, the networks also have to fight the ongoing trend of consumers
cutting the cable cord. Fox News, CNN and MSNBC are all currently available in
around 66 million pay TV households, according to Nielsen data, a 28% decline
from 2016, the year Trump’s unpredictable presidential candidacy turbocharged
their ratings.
More
MSNBC ratings collapse postelection, Fox News surges as cable faces an
uncertain future
Covid-19
Corner
This section will
continue until it becomes unneeded.
Your winter illness guide: Why norovirus and RSV
are on the rise, and what to expect from COVID-19 and the flu
12 December 2024
‘Tis the season for
gathering inside and being surrounded by loved ones — which, unfortunately,
makes it much easier to spread and catch COVID-19, RSV, the flu and norovirus.
And it’s not just
cuddling by an open fire that puts you at risk: The hallmarks of the winter
season, including lower temperatures, low humidity and indoor heating systems,
also create the perfect conditions for viruses to thrive, while leaving our
dried-out mucous membranes more vulnerable.
So what can you expect
this season? Here’s what the winter forecast looks like for COVID, RSV, the flu
and norovirus — and what you can do about these illnesses, according to public
health experts.
Click on the links below
to jump ahead to each ailment:
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Perovskite-silicon
tandem solar cells are the ‘prerequisite’ for next PV technological leap – Fraunhofer
By Jonathan Touriño Jacobo December 12, 2024
In a joint project lasting five years,
six Fraunhofer institutes have published their results regarding
next-generation tandem solar cell technology.
Dubbed “MaNiTU”, the Fraunhofer project
aimed to identify the most sustainable path to market for tandem solar cells,
with perovskite-silicon tandem solar cells in the lead.
“Perovskite-silicon tandem solar cells
made of stable materials and manufactured using scalable production processes
are the prerequisite for the next technological leap in the photovoltaic
industry,” wrote the report’s authors.
The collaborative project achieved a 31.6% cell efficiency on a 1cm2 area with
high-quality perovskite thin films on industrially textured silicon solar
cells. This was achieved through a combination of vapour deposition and
wet-chemical deposition.
“Close industrial cooperation is the
next step in establishing this future technology in Europe,” said Prof. Andreas
Bett, institute director at the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems
(ISE) and coordinator of the flagship Fraunhofer project.
No
suitable solution for lead-free perovskite solar cells
Fraunhofer ISE’s research currently has
not found a non-toxic alternative that does not require the use of lead for
perovskite compounds to produce tandem solar cells. The research was not able
to produce tandem solar cells with sufficient efficiency from any lead-free
materials.
More
Perovskite-silicon solar cells are the ‘prerequisite’ – Fraunhofer - PV
Tech
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Approx. 8 minutes.
Franceso
Barsanti (1690-1772) - Concerto Grosso Op. 3 Nº 6
Franceso Barsanti
(1690-1772) - Concerto Grosso Op. 3 Nº 6 - YouTube
This
weekend’s chess update. The youngest world champion ever. Approx. 23 minutes.
Ding
vs Gukesh || GAME 14 || FIDE World Chess Championship Match 2024
Ding vs Gukesh || GAME 14 || FIDE World
Chess Championship Match 2024 - YouTube
This
weekend’s final diversion. More on
Eccentric England! England’s other Wall/Dyke. Approx 20 minutes.
The
WALL that Divided Britain
The WALL that
Divided Britain - YouTube
A man sentenced to death obtained a reprieve by assuring the
king he would teach his majesty's horse to fly within the year - on the
condition that if he didn't succeed, he would be put to death at the end of the
year. "Within a year," the man explained later, "the king may
die, or I may die, or the horse may die. Furthermore, in a year, who knows?
Maybe the horse will learn to fly." My philosophy is like that man's. I
take the long-range view.
Bernard Baruch
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