Saturday, 14 December 2024

Special Update14/12/2024 2025 A Near Global Depression?

Baltic Dry Index. 1051 -04         Brent Crude 74.49

Spot Gold 2648                  U S 2 Year Yield 4.25 +0.07

Gold, unlike all other commodities, is a currency...and the major thrust in the demand for gold is not for jewelry. It's not for anything other than an escape from what is perceived to be a fiat money system, paper money, that seems to be deteriorating.

Alan Greenspan.

In the stock casinos, more wobble or something worse?

Dinosaur Graeme’s prediction for stocks in 2025, the worst year ever, as economic troubles in China, the EU, UK, Canada and the USA lead to a near global depression.

Look away from that rapidly uninverting US Treasury yield curve now!

Sadly, I also think that food price inflation will continue, generating real hardship for those losing their jobs.

Dow slides for a seventh straight day for longest losing streak since 2020: Live updates

Updated Fri, Dec 13 2024 4:31 PM EST

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for a seventh session on Friday, posting its longest run of losses since 2020.

The blue-chip index lost 86.06 points, or 0.2%, to close at 43,828.06. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.12% to 19,926.72. The S&P 500 ended the session little changed, closing at 6,051.09.

For the week, the Dow posted a 1.8% decline, while the S&P 500 slid about 0.6% and ended a three-week winning streak. The Nasdaq rose 0.3% during the period.

“We’re kind of stuck in this trading range,” Jay Hatfield, CEO at Infrastructure Capital Advisors, told CNBC. “The Nasdaq will outperform, small caps will underperform, [and the] Dow will underperform till we get some catalyst.”

Nvidia fell more than 2%, and Meta Platforms shed more than 1%. Amazon shares were also marginally lower. On the other hand, Broadcom reached a market cap of $1 trillion, rallying more than 24% after posting fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted earnings that beat estimates and reporting that artificial intelligence revenue soared 220% for the year.

The moves come on the heels of a losing session on Wall Street for the three major averages. The Nasdaq Composite also broke below the 20,000 threshold.

Stock market news for Dec. 13, 2024

Europe stocks close lower, snap three-week winning streak; UK and German data disappoints

Updated Fri, Dec 13 2024 12:02 PM EST

European markets closed lower Friday as investors reacted to disappointing data prints from two of the region’s largest economies.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 provisionally closed 0.62% lower, also recording a weekly loss after three weeks in the green.

Friday’s downbeat mood followed unexpected declines in both U.K. GDP and key export data from Germany.

The U.K. economy contracted by an estimated 0.1% on a monthly basis, the ONS said Friday, with officials attributing the downturn to a decline in production output. Economists polled by news agency Reuters had projected a 0.1% rise in GDP in October.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron named Francois Bayrou his new prime minister on Friday. The announcement comes after weeks of political turmoil in the country, during which lawmakers ousted former prime minister Michel Barnier.

The French CAC 40 index had traded slightly higher following the news, but slipped in late deals and closed 0.23% lower.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points, marking its fourth and final rate cut of the year. Policymakers also signaled the possibility of more reductions in 2025.

The Swiss National Bank also cut rates on Thursday by a larger-than-anticipated 50 basis points, while Denmark’s central bank announced a 25 basis point reduction.

Central bank watchers are now turning their attention to next week and rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.

Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell overnight, led by losses in China after Beijing affirmed its recent policy shifts and stressed plans to boost growth after a high-profile meeting Thursday.

U.S. stocks opened higher, though the S&P 500 remained on course for its first weekly decline in four weeks.

Europe stocks close lower, snap three-week winning streak

In other news, poor France . Poor Germany too. The wind stopped blowing and it turned cloudy just as the weather turned colder. Green energy anyone?

Moody's hands France surprise downgrade over deteriorating finances

13 December 2024

PARIS (Reuters) -Credit ratings agency Moody's unexpectedly downgraded France's rating on Friday, adding pressure on the country's new prime minister to corral divided lawmakers into backing his efforts to rein in the strained public finances.

The downgrade, which came outside of Moody's regular review schedule for France, brings its rating to "Aa3" from "Aa2" with a stable outlook for future moves and puts it in line with those from rival agencies Standard & Poor's and Fitch.

It comes hours after President Emmanuel Macron named on Friday veteran centrist politician and early ally Francois Bayrou as his fourth prime minister this year.

His predecessor Michel Barnier failed to pass a 2025 budget and was toppled earlier this month by left-wing and far-right lawmakers opposed to his 60 billion euro belt-tightening push that he had hoped would rein in France's spiraling fiscal deficit.

The political crisis forced the outgoing government to propose emergency legislation this week to temporarily roll over 2024 spending limits and tax thresholds into next year until a more permanent 2025 budget can be passed.

"Looking ahead, there is now very low probability that the next government will sustainably reduce the size of fiscal deficits beyond next year," Moody's said in a statement.

"As a result, we forecast that France's public finances will be materially weaker over the next three years compared to our October 2024 baseline scenario," it added.

More

Moody's hands France surprise downgrade over deteriorating finances

Cold without wind: German ‘dunkelflaute’ brings electricity prices to crisis levels and depletes gas reserves

German consumers will pay almost €400 per megawatt hour on Thursday, the highest figure since the end of 2022

Madrid - DEC 12, 2024 - 16:26 WET

Dunkelflaute is a cursed word in the German electricity sector. The combination, typical of cold anticyclones, of low temperatures (which increase demand) and the almost total absence of wind (which hinders wind generation) configures one of the worst possible scenarios for the price of electricity: it forces the burning of more gas in combined cycle plants, which are much more expensive, and that substantially increases the bill. This dreaded cocktail, which is currently hitting Central Europe, is leading the price of electricity in Europe’s largest economy to levels not seen since the energy crisis.

German consumers will have to pay an average of €395 ($414) per megawatt hour (MWh) on Thursday, the highest value since December 2022, at the height of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and when fears about European natural gas supplies were more than justified. In some parts of the day, you would have to go back even further to find similar values: between 5 p.m. and 6 p.m., the German wholesale market exceeded €936 ($981) per megawatt hour. This is the highest figure in 18 years.

The main factor behind this escalation is the lack of wind. While at this time of year Germany’s powerful wind power sector (onshore and offshore) usually averages almost 20 gigawatts (GW) of power, according to data from the specialist portal Montel, thus becoming the country’s main source of electricity, on Wednesday it will just exceed 3 GW. With the cloudy skies, solar photovoltaic power is also operating well below its potential and forces combined cycle plants — in which gas is burned to obtain electricity — to operate at a higher rate than usual, driving up prices.

Unlike the worst days of the 2022 energy crisis — when the price of gas, at historic highs due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, was the main trigger and the main focus of concern — now the situation is purely temporary: when the wind returns and temperatures rise, the wholesale electricity market should also return to normal. In fact, this is not the first episode of this kind in recent months: in November, the bad streak of wind power pushed the German price above €800 ($839) per MWh in some hourly periods, only to fall back in the following days.

Less gas stored

Relying on combined cycles to meet demand not only has an impact on prices. Gas stored in underground tanks, a variable that has been closely scrutinized since the energy crisis, has fallen sharply in recent weeks. Compared to 98% of gas in early November, German reserves of this vital fuel for heating and industry are currently around 87% and have accelerated their decline in recent days.

The average European reserves are at 80% of their capacity, also falling sharply (by 15 percentage points) over the last five weeks. In November, for example, the decline in continental reserves was the fastest since 2016 due to the greater use of combined cycles and also heating. “Reserves are decreasing more than expected, although they remain at very healthy levels,” say analysts at Arcano Research.

More

Cold without wind: German ‘dunkelflaute’ brings electricity prices to crisis levels and depletes gas reserves | International | EL PAÍS English

Coffee prices climb to near 50-year highs — and it may take years for the rally to run out of steam

Published Fri, Dec 13 2024 1:06 AM EST

A record-breaking rally for coffee prices shows no sign of slowing down, analysts say, with some warning it could take years for one of the world’s most traded commodities to recover.

Arabica coffee futures with March delivery hit a fresh intraday high of 348.35 cents per pound on Tuesday, notching their highest level in nearly 50 years. The contract has since cut some of its gains but remains up a whopping 70% year-to-date.

The last time the price for arabica beans, the world’s most popular variety, traded that high was in 1977 when snow destroyed large areas of Brazilian plantations.

Renowned for their smooth taste and sweet flavor, arabica beans make up between 60% to 70% of the global coffee market. They are commonly used in espressos and other barista-made coffee.

Drought and high temperatures, alongside a global reliance on supplies from relatively few regions, are regarded as the primary drivers for the recent price rise.

Robusta futures, meanwhile, also climbed to a fresh record high in late November. Robusta beans are known for their strong and bitter flavor and are typically used in instant blends.

The extraordinary price rally for coffee, which is considered the second-most traded commodity by volume, after crude oil, comes amid concerns over the 2025 crop in Brazil, by far the world’s largest producer.

“The country experienced its worst drought in 70 years during August and September, followed by heavy rains in October, raising fears that the flowering crop could fail,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Denmark’s Saxo Bank, said in a research note published Tuesday.

For some, the poor growing weather in Brazil means it could take a long time for coffee prices to unwind.

“History suggests that coffee prices will only ease back as and when supply improves and stocks are replenished,” David Oxley, chief climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said in a research note published on Nov. 29.

“Crucially, this is a process that can take years, not months,” Oxley said.

More

Coffee prices: Analysts warn it may take years for the rally to fade

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch. 

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

Remember what we're looking at. Gold is a currency. It is still, by all evidence, a premier currency, that no fiat currency, including the dollar, can match.

Alan Greenspan.

German central bank cuts growth forecasts as headwinds intensify

13 December 2024

Germany's central bank on Friday sharply downgraded its growth forecasts for next year and 2026, predicting a prolonged period of weakness for Europe's biggest economy as it battles multiple headwinds. 

From a manufacturing slowdown and weak export demand to heightened political uncertainty at home and the risk of renewed trade tensions under US President-elect Donald Trump, the German economy is facing a perfect storm.

The Bundesbank forecast output will grow a meagre 0.2 percent in 2025, down from a forecast in June of a 1.1 percent expansion. For 2026 it forecast growth of 0.8 percent, down from a 1.4 expansion expected previously.

The estimates are substantially worse than the last projections from the government released in October, and will ring alarm bells among policymakers who had hoped for a strong rebound starting next year.

"The German economy is not only struggling with persistent economic headwinds, but also with structural problems," said Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel, as he unveiled the bank's latest six-monthly forecast. 

As widely expected, the central bank also cut its forecast for 2024 to a contraction of 0.2 percent -- which largely lines up with other recent estimates, including from the government.  

The latest bleak forecast is a headache for Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who already faces an uphill battle to persuade voters to re-elect him at polls expected in February, seven months earlier than scheduled.

More

German central bank cuts growth forecasts as headwinds intensify

UK economy unexpectedly declines as services sector stalls

13 December 2024

The UK economy unexpectedly declined in October, as a weak month for pubs and restaurants dragged on growth amid some uncertainty ahead of the autumn Budget.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 0.1% in October.

Most economists had been expecting GDP to rise by 0.1% during the month.

The latest figures from the ONS come after it recorded 0.1% growth between July and September, a slowdown on the 0.4% increase between April and June.

Liz McKeown, the ONS’s director of economic statistics, said: “The economy contracted slightly in October, with services showing no growth overall and production and construction both falling.

“Oil and gas extraction, pubs and restaurants and retail all had weak months, partially offset by growth in telecoms, logistics, and legal firms.

“However, the economy still grew a little over the last three months as a whole.”

UK economy unexpectedly declines as services sector stalls

MSNBC ratings collapse postelection, Fox News surges as cable faces an uncertain future

December 12, 2024

 When a sports team loses, its fans don't hang around for the postgame show.

The same goes for the tribal habits of cable news audiences.

Viewers have fled left-leaning MSNBC since Vice President Kamala Harris lost the presidential race to former President Trump on Nov. 5. The audience for the Comcast-owned channel is down 46% compared to the first 10 months of 2024, according to Nielsen data.

CNN, which has long battled ratings swings dictated by news coverage, is down 33% after the election.

Fox News, which last week presented Trump with its “Patriot of the Year” honor, has seen its audience surge. In November, the Murdoch family's network captured a 70% share of the cable news audience in the weeks since the president-elect won another term in the White House; that's the largest in its history.

The ratings tumult comes at a time when the cable business is facing an existential crisis, as more consumers are forgoing the pay-TV subscriptions that provide most of its revenue.

The corporate parents of the major news outlets are facing business challenges as well.

CNN is expected to make significant workforce cuts early next year as its parent company, Warner Bros. Discovery, tries to reduce debt.

Comcast is spinning off MSNBC and its other cable networks into a new company so that the declining business does not drag down its stock price. Some of MSNBC's biggest stars, including Rachel Maddow, Joy Reid and Stephanie Ruhle, have been asked to take pay cuts, as revenues and profits come under pressure.

While Fox News is more dominant than ever in the ratings, its corporate parent, Fox Corp., also faces uncertainty.

Rupert Murdoch’s attempt to give control of his media empire to his son Lachlan was rejected by a Nevada probate commissioner this week. The proposed change in the family trust, which aimed to cut out the more liberal-leaning Murdoch siblings, has led to speculation that there could be a conflict over the network’s conservative direction after the 93-year-old mogul dies.

While those factors loom, the networks also have to fight the ongoing trend of consumers cutting the cable cord. Fox News, CNN and MSNBC are all currently available in around 66 million pay TV households, according to Nielsen data, a 28% decline from 2016, the year Trump’s unpredictable presidential candidacy turbocharged their ratings.

More

MSNBC ratings collapse postelection, Fox News surges as cable faces an uncertain future

Covid-19 Corner       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Your winter illness guide: Why norovirus and RSV are on the rise, and what to expect from COVID-19 and the flu

12 December 2024

‘Tis the season for gathering inside and being surrounded by loved ones — which, unfortunately, makes it much easier to spread and catch COVID-19, RSV, the flu and norovirus.

And it’s not just cuddling by an open fire that puts you at risk: The hallmarks of the winter season, including lower temperatures, low humidity and indoor heating systems, also create the perfect conditions for viruses to thrive, while leaving our dried-out mucous membranes more vulnerable.

So what can you expect this season? Here’s what the winter forecast looks like for COVID, RSV, the flu and norovirus — and what you can do about these illnesses, according to public health experts.

Click on the links below to jump ahead to each ailment:

Your winter illness guide: Why norovirus and RSV are on the rise, and what to expect from COVID-19 and the flu

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Perovskite-silicon tandem solar cells are the ‘prerequisite’ for next PV technological leap – Fraunhofer

By Jonathan Touriño Jacobo  December 12, 2024

In a joint project lasting five years, six Fraunhofer institutes have published their results regarding next-generation tandem solar cell technology.

Dubbed “MaNiTU”, the Fraunhofer project aimed to identify the most sustainable path to market for tandem solar cells, with perovskite-silicon tandem solar cells in the lead.

“Perovskite-silicon tandem solar cells made of stable materials and manufactured using scalable production processes are the prerequisite for the next technological leap in the photovoltaic industry,” wrote the report’s authors.

The collaborative project achieved a 31.6% cell efficiency on a 1cm2 area with high-quality perovskite thin films on industrially textured silicon solar cells. This was achieved through a combination of vapour deposition and wet-chemical deposition.

“Close industrial cooperation is the next step in establishing this future technology in Europe,” said Prof. Andreas Bett, institute director at the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE) and coordinator of the flagship Fraunhofer project.

No suitable solution for lead-free perovskite solar cells

Fraunhofer ISE’s research currently has not found a non-toxic alternative that does not require the use of lead for perovskite compounds to produce tandem solar cells. The research was not able to produce tandem solar cells with sufficient efficiency from any lead-free materials.

More

Perovskite-silicon solar cells are the ‘prerequisite’ – Fraunhofer - PV Tech

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

This weekend’s music diversion.  Approx. 8 minutes.

Franceso Barsanti (1690-1772) - Concerto Grosso Op. 3 Nº 6

Franceso Barsanti (1690-1772) - Concerto Grosso Op. 3 Nº 6 - YouTube

This weekend’s chess update. The youngest world champion ever. Approx. 23 minutes.

Ding vs Gukesh || GAME 14 || FIDE World Chess Championship Match 2024

 Ding vs Gukesh || GAME 14 || FIDE World Chess Championship Match 2024 - YouTube

This weekend’s final diversion.  More on Eccentric England! England’s other Wall/Dyke.  Approx 20 minutes.

The WALL that Divided Britain

The WALL that Divided Britain - YouTube

A man sentenced to death obtained a reprieve by assuring the king he would teach his majesty's horse to fly within the year - on the condition that if he didn't succeed, he would be put to death at the end of the year. "Within a year," the man explained later, "the king may die, or I may die, or the horse may die. Furthermore, in a year, who knows? Maybe the horse will learn to fly." My philosophy is like that man's. I take the long-range view.

Bernard Baruch


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