Baltic Dry Index. 2030 -54 Brent Crude 74.92
Spot Gold 2654 US 2 Year Yield 3.61 -0.05
You can have economic freedom without political freedom, but you cannot have political freedom without economic freedom.
Friedrich August von Hayek.
In the real world, a new undeclared Middle East war is underway. How it develops, no one knows. Still, if it rolls on to impact oil production and shipping, another 1929 depression is all too likely, but a depression with trillions of unrepayable fiat money debt.
Time to fill up the car, swap some fiats for long life foodstuffs and goods with intrinsic value.
To say that this new war could so easily go wrong, is the understatement of understatements. In Washington DC, team Rip Van Winkle is at the “controls” for another four months!
In the stock casinos, will reality finally set in? Will October 2024 rank alongside October 1929 and 1987?
Stock futures slip following rocky start to
October: Live updates
Updated Wed, Oct 2 2024 8:09 PM EDT
Stock futures slid in overnight trading
following a sour start to October and the final quarter of 2024.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 96
points, while S&P 500
futures and Nasdaq-100 futures ticked lower
by about 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.
In after-hours action, Nike slid more than 5% after the
sneaker giant pulled its
full-year guidance ahead
of its CEO change. Elliott Hill will take the helm at Nike on Oct. 14. Fiscal
first-quarter earnings at the apparel company topped Wall Street’s estimates,
but revenue missed the mark.
The major averages are coming off a losing session as rising
tensions in the Middle East dented risk appetite and investor enthusiasm for
the new trading period. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more
than 173 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped
0.93% and 1.53%, respectively.
Oil prices jumped on Tuesday and the CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) spiked as
Iran fired ballistic
missiles on Israel.
The attack came as Israel began a ground operation
into Lebanon and
tensions escalated with Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah.
“We came into the day with worries over
how long the port strike would impact
markets and potential economic growth, but those worries quickly moved to the
Middle East,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. “The
big worry now is should this conflict spiral into a larger scale war in the entire
region, which of course could be a major October surprise.”
Technology was the worst-performing sector
Tuesday. The S&P 500′s information technology sector shed 2.7% and
registered its worst session in nearly a month, led to the downside by megacaps
such as Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft and Tesla. U.S. Treasury yields slumped as
investors sought safer
assets.
Ahead of Friday’s keynote September jobs
report, Wall Street on Wednesday will gain insight into the state of private
payrolls with ADP’s Employment Survey. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report could
play a major role in the market’s direction and the Federal Reserve’s next rate
move as its cutting cycle begins.
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In global automaking news, is a buyer’s strike underway. Or maybe the buyers have just run out of cash, credit and optimism.
Why U.S. auto factories are so unproductive
Published Fri, Sep 27 2024 8:00 AM EDT
Automotive factories throughout the United
States and around the world are not producing nearly as many cars as they need
to in order to be profitable. A mixture of factors are driving down
productivity, but two stand out.
First, new car demand simply hasn’t
snapped back to pre-pandemic levels. A record 17.5 million cars sold in the
U.S. in 2016, according to forecasting firm GlobalData. That trickled down
to about
17 million by 2019. But in the pandemic, the number plummeted to
a 2022
low of 13.8 million. Those sales have only partially recovered — and
are expected to be just shy of 16 million units in 2024.
High prices are keeping customers away or
sending them to used markets, said GlobalData’s Global Vice President of
Automotive Research Jeff Schuster.
“That cost pressure isn’t necessarily
going to fully go away, which is why we don’t believe demand is going to get
back to where it was,” he said.
The second factor is the transition to
electric vehicles.
“The market of electric vehicles was
supposed to bloom in the 2020s, and it just hasn’t occurred to that level yet,”
said Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast
Solutions. “We have all these plants that are ready to build 200,000 or 300,000
electric vehicles and nobody to buy them. So we’re waiting for the market to
show up.”
Automakers face a puzzle they have never
encountered before — designing vehicles, supply chains and factories to
accommodate multiple powertrains.
For more than a century, nearly all cars
ran on gasoline. Automakers were hoping for a clean jump to a world where all
cars ran on batteries. But the transition to electrification has been a lot
messier than expected.
“I’ve been at this for over 35 years,”
said Michael Robinet, executive director, automotive consulting, at S&P
Global Mobility. “I can never remember a period like this — with so many
possibilities up in the air that could really change the trajectory of the
industry.”
Why U.S. auto factories are so unproductive (cnbc.com)
Stellantis Stock Has Worst Day Since 2020 After
Automaker Cuts Guidance
October 1, 2024
Global car stocks dropped after Jeep maker
Stellantis joined Volkswagen and others in cutting
earnings forecasts, signaling a worsening industry outlook.
Stellantis—which houses brands such as
Chrysler, Fiat and Peugeot—and luxury carmaker Aston Martin both cut
profitability guidance for the year. Volkswagen slashed
its outlook Friday, while Mercedes-Benz and BMW downgraded targets earlier
this month.
As of late Monday:
U.S-listed shares in Stellantis plunged
13%, closing at their lowest level since December 2022. It was the sharpest
downward move for the shares since March 2020.
Ford Motor shares declined 2% and General
Motors shed 3.5%.
In Europe, Aston Martin shed around a
quarter of its value, while Volkswagen's most widely traded shares dropped
around 2%.
Other European car stocks fell, with
Renault and Volvo Car both down over 3%
Asia auto stocks took a hit too. Amid
a broader
selloff in Tokyo and a stronger yen, Toyota, Honda and Nissan all fell
more than 6%. In South Korea, Kia and Hyundai lost more than 4%.
Volkswagen called out weakness in
mass-market autos and financial services, whereas BMW and Mercedes's warnings
blamed the high-end segment and China, Barclays analysts said.
Similarly, Aston Martin pointed to supply
delays and weakness in China. Meantime, Stellantis said it was accelerating
plans to cut U.S. inventory, as the global industry continues to weaken and
competition intensifies.
Stellantis Stock Has Worst Day Since 2020 After Automaker Cuts Guidance (wsj.com)
In other news, a wider, undeclared Middle East war has broken out. In Washington D.C,. the sound of one hand clapping. Will the lamest of lame duck presidential teams in Washington stumble the world into WW3?
Oil watchers now see a real threat of supply
disruptions after latest Iran-Israel escalation
Published Tue, Oct 1 2024 10:17 PM EDT
Oil watchers are now seeing a genuine
threat to crude supplies after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on
Israel, escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Iran on Tuesday
launched the strike on
Israel in retaliation for its recent killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan
Nasrallah and an Iranian commander in Lebanon.
Iranian oil infrastructure may soon become
a target for Israel as it considers a countermove, analysts told CNBC.
“The Middle East conflict may finally
impact oil supply,” said Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee.
“The scope for a material disruption to oil supply is now imminent.”
These latest developments could be a
gamechanger, after a prolonged period of “geopolitical risk fatigue” during
which traders brushed off threats of oil supply disruptions stemming from the
situation in the Middle East as well as Ukraine, he said.
Up to 4% of global oil supply is at risk
as the conflict now directly envelopes Iran, and an attack or tighter sanctions
could send prices to $100 per barrel again, Kavonic added.
Iran’s latest missile attack followed
Israel’s deployment of ground troops into southern Lebanon, intensifying its
offensive against Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group. Most of the 200
missiles launched were intercepted by Israeli and U.S. defenses, and there were
no reported fatalities in Israel as a result of the attack.
The attack came on the heels of Israel’s deployment of
ground forces into south Lebanon, escalating its offensive on Hezbollah, the
Iran-backed militant group.
Oil prices gained
over 5% in
the previous session following the missile strike, before tapering to a 2%
climb. Global benchmark
Brent is
now trading 1.44% higher at $74.62 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose
1.62% to $70.95 per barrel.
Since the armed Israel-Hamas conflict
started Oct. 7 of last year, disruptions to the oil market has been limited.
The oil market also remains under pressure as increased production from the
U.S. add to the supply picture, and sputtering Chinese demand have depressed
prices, said Andy Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates.
Iran is the third largest producer among
the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, producing almost four
million barrels of oil per day, according to data from the Energy Information
Administration.
New phase of the war?
Other analysts echoed Kavonic’s warning.
“As Israel turns from Gaza to Lebanon and
Iran, the war is entering a new and more energy-related phase,” Bob McNally,
president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC, adding that he expects Israel’s
retaliation for the missile attack to be “disproportionately large.”
“It’s going to get worse before it gets
better,” he said.
More
China's
Economy Faces Darkening Outlook
September
30, 2024
Just
how badly is China’s economy doing? And what does that mean for everyone
else?
Long
a juggernaut, China is clearly slowing. It will likely miss its 5% GDP growth
target for this year, coming in at around 4.8%. As enviable as that may sound
to advanced economies, it’s slow by China’s standards. It’s also remarkable for
growth to come in below Beijing’s official goal — a rare failure to live up to
what the Communist Party has dictated. Chinese manufacturing is still
contracting. Foreign investment is poised to actually fall for the first time
in China since 1990, if not earlier. Consumers are skittish and not
spending.
The root
of China’s woes is a real estate bust that hit a few years ago and is
nowhere near bottom. Unlike in the U.S., where house
prices are up sharply
since the pandemic, boosting household wealth. Chinese households have lost $18
trillion as the value of their homes has fallen. In China, property is the
middle class’s preferred asset to own, whereas Americans are more financially
diversified.
There’s
probably not much Beijing can do to really turn the economy around. So far,
it’s mostly relying on monetary stimulus, lowering borrowing rates, allowing
smaller down payments on homes, making more cash available to borrow, etc. It
may soon announce new spending programs, too. All of this seems like a
stopgap.
One
thing you can expect from China’s familiar playbook: Leaning on exports, which
are up by double digits this year, though not enough to reach the 5% GDP goal.
Encouraging exports also lifts demand for raw materials, boosting commodity
prices.
The
rising tide of cheap Chinese
exports is
intensifying global trade conflicts, leading to more tariff barriers targeting
Chinese goods. Canada just levied a 100% tax on Chinese electric vehicles, plus
25% duties on Chinese steel and aluminum imports. The European Union may soon
follow suit on EVs, with a tariff rate of up to 35.5%. Either U.S. presidential
candidate is bound to impose additional tariffs
on China:
Donald Trump, more broadly, Kamala Harris, in a more targeted way. Each of them
would cite not just unfair economic competition but also national security
concerns.
U.S.
importers are already diversifying away from China, whose products now make up
15% of imports here, down from 21% in 2018. Businesses that relied on cheap
Chinese goods will have less access to them. Ditto for U.S. consumers, for whom
cheap Chinese products took some sting out of inflation. In the long run,
though, it could also give American manufacturers a shot to regain market
share.
Look
for relations
between Beijing and Washington to continue to worsen — over trade
and more — as China struggles to reboot its export-driven economic model.
China's Economy Faces Darkening Outlook (msn.com)
China’s
economic woes dampen ‘Golden Week’ holiday travel
Published
Tue, Oct 1 2024 12:44 AM EDT
China
is expecting to see more travelers during Golden Week, but the country’s
persistent economic woes will likely continue to weigh on overall spending this
holiday season.
Authorities
at the Ministry of Transport project that 1.94 billion inter-city trips will be
made during the National Day holiday this year, slightly higher compared to a
year ago, according to officials at the Ministry of Transport.
Shaun
Rein, founder and managing director of China Market Research Group
said that although the number of domestic trips made during this holiday period
could beat 2019, the average spend per traveler is expected to be lower.
Consumers
across China have become more frugal as the country
struggles with a prolonged real estate slump and rising unemployment.
Consumers are likely to cut back on spending until they feel “their income
levels are stable and will continue to grow,” Rein said.
Average
prices for hotels and flights on travel booking site Trip.com have hovered
below levels seen a year ago. Prices for both domestic and outbound flights
during the National Day period declined compared to last year, according
to report by Trip.com released last month.
Alicia
Garcia Herrero, chief economist at Natixis, also said that the country could
see a slight uptick in overall tourism spending during the holiday break, but
such a rise should be seen against the backdrop of what she called last year’s
“lower base.”
During the Golden Week holiday last year, China saw
domestic tourism revenue reach 753 billion yuan ($107.37 billion). That
represented an increase of 1.5% from 2019, according to data from the Ministry
of Culture and Tourism.
Not
only have flights been cheaper, data also indicates that travelers may be
opting for lower cost transport options.
The National
Railway Administration said it expected to see more than 175 million
rail trips over the Golden Week period from Sept. 29 to Oct. 8, adding that
passenger volume is forecast to peak on Tuesday with over 21 million trips.
More
China's economic woes dampen 'Golden Week' holiday travel (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Euro
zone inflation falls to 1.8% in September, below the European Central Bank’s 2%
target
Published
Tue, Oct 1 20245:05 AM EDT
Euro
zone inflation fell to 1.8% in September, coming in below the European Central
Bank’s 2% target, flash data from statistics agency Eurostat showed Tuesday.
The
reading was in line with the expectations of economists polled by Reuters,
after annual inflation hit a three-year-low of 2.2% in August.
The
core inflation rate, which excludes more volatile energy, food, alcohol and
tobacco prices, came in at 2.7%. It was forecast to remain unchanged from the
August reading of 2.8%.
Services
inflation in the euro zone eased to 4% in September, down from 4.1% in August,
the data showed.
The
figures come after September inflation eased below the 2% European Central Bank
target in several key euro zone economies, including France and Germany. The harmonized
inflation rate in Europe’s leading economy dropped by more than expected
to 1.8% on an annual basis, preliminary data showed Monday.
Inflation
outlook
While
there could be a “temporary rebound” of inflation in the coming months, the
headline reading is likely to remain below 2% in the coming year, Franziska
Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, said in a note on
Tuesday.
Bert
Colijn, chief economist for the Netherlands at ING, meanwhile noted that a
renewed pickup of inflation is also not entirely certain.
“While
a bounce back in the fourth quarter has been expected, the question is to
what extent this can materialise as petrol prices have been dropping
quickly on the back of falling oil prices,” he said in a note on Tuesday.
More
Euro zone
inflation, September 2024 (cnbc.com)
Greece
cuts 2024 economic growth forecast again amid EU stagnation
30
September 2024
ATHENS
(Reuters) - Greece has trimmed its forecast for 2024 economic growth for a
second time this year to 2.2%, as stagnation in euro zone countries hits
investment and exports, the country's fiscal council said on Monday, citing a
government economic plan.
Greece
projected growth of 2.9% at the beginning of the year, as the country continued
to emerge from a decade-long debt crisis that saw it nearly fall out of the
eurozone. The forecast was cut to 2.5% in April, also because of a wider EU
slowdown.
"2024
forecasts are based on data on the weak growth of the European economy in the
first two quarters of 2024, especially for the country's major trading
partners, such as Germany," the council said in a statement.
More
than half of foreign direct investment into Greece comes from northern European
countries, while two thirds of the country's exports, such as agricultural
goods, fuel and pharmaceutical products, go to the European Union.
The
council, an advisory body, said the government also trimmed its growth estimate
for 2025 to 2.3% from 2.5% previously well above the eurozone average.
Over
the medium term, events linked to climate change, including floods and
wildfires, will dent economic growth, the council said.
"Natural
disasters, which often lead to extraordinary costs, could cast doubt over the
growth dynamism of the Greek economy in the coming years," the council
said.
The
2024-2025 fiscal plan is expected to be published by the finance ministry on
Monday and should be submitted to the European Commission in the coming days.
Greece cuts 2024 economic growth forecast again amid EU stagnation (msn.com)
UK
shop prices fall by the most since August 2021, survey shows
1 October 2024
LONDON (Reuters) - Prices in British shops fell at the fastest pace in more
than three years in September, the British Retail Consortium said on Tuesday,
adding to signs that the inflation squeeze on consumers has faded.
Annual
shop price deflation dropped to 0.6% in the 12 months to September, the BRC
said, its weakest since August 2021 and slower than the 0.3% fall in the month
before.
It
was the seventh time in nine months that the pace of price growth has weakened.
Non-food
deflation fell to 2.1%, a down from a drop of 1.5% in August.
"Easing
price inflation will certainly be welcomed by consumers, but ongoing
geopolitical tensions, climate change, and government-imposed regulatory costs
could all reverse this trend," BRC boss Helen Dickinson, said.
Food
price inflation rose to 2.3% from 2.0%, an increase Dickinson attributed in
part to poor harvests in key farming areas which led to higher prices for
cooking oil and sugar.
Official
figures showed consumer price inflation held at 2.2% for the second month in a
row in August, well below a 41-year high of 11.1% in October 2022.
But
services inflation, a closely watched indicator of underlying inflation
pressure by the Bank of England, edged up.
The
central bank is expected to cut borrowing costs in November after holding its
key interest rate at 5% in September.
BoE
policymaker Megan Green last month said she saw a risk that weak consumer
demand could rebound by more than the central bank has anticipated.
Consumer
surveys have shown many households remain cautious about potential tax hikes in
finance minister's Rachel Reeve's first annual budget later this month.
UK shop prices fall by the most since August 2021, survey shows (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
COVID-19
vaccination lowers risk of developing severe cardiovascular conditions
1
October 2024
People
who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 have a significantly lower risk
of developing more severe cardiovascular conditions linked to COVID-19
infection, according to a nationwide study at the University of Gothenburg. At
the same time, some cardiovascular effects are seen after individual doses of
the vaccine.
The
COVID-19 vaccine aims to reduce complications and overall mortality from the
disease. At the same time, some cardiovascular effects have been seen after
individual doses of the vaccine. A rare acute side effect is inflammation of
the cardiac muscle or the pericardium in young men following mRNA vaccination.
In terms of other cardiovascular effects, there has only been limited research
and the results have been conflicting.
The
current study, published in the European Heart Journal, is a register-based,
nationwide study. It is based on data from the entire population of more than
eight million adults in Sweden who were followed up in national healthcare
registers for around two years, from the end of December 2020 when COVID-19
vaccination began until the end of 2022.
The
researchers have studied 'risk windows' (the time immediately after a single
injection of the COVID vaccine), dose by dose, in those who were vaccinated.
The cardiovascular health after full vaccination has then been compared with
the cardiovascular health of those who, at the same stage of the study, had not
started any vaccination.
The
study includes risk analyses for a number of cardiovascular diseases related to
both the heart and the brain: inflammation of the cardiac muscle or the
pericardium, cardiac arrhythmia, heart failure, TIA, and stroke – the latter
two being caused by impaired blood flow in the brain.
For
most of the outcomes – particularly the more serious ones – there was a reduced
risk of cardiovascular events after vaccination, especially after the third
dose. The risk of cardiovascular events after being fully vaccinated was
generally 20–30% lower than if no vaccination had been initiated. At the same
time, the study also confirms the increased risk of inflammation of the cardiac
muscle or the pericardium one to two weeks after a single mRNA injection
against COVID.
The
study also observed a temporarily increased risk of extrasystoles – additional
heartbeats – after dose one (17% higher risk) and dose two (22% higher risk),
and this was stronger among elderly and males. There was no increased risk of
other serious cardiac arrhythmias after being vaccinated.
More
COVID-19 vaccination lowers risk of developing severe cardiovascular conditions (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
26 September 2024
First
Human Procedure Performed at Salford Royal Hospital in Manchester, UK
INBRAIN
Neuroelectronics Announces World’s First Human Graphene-Based Brain Computer
Interface Procedure
INBRAIN Neuroelectronics, a
brain-computer interface therapeutics (BCI-Tx) company pioneering
graphene-based neural technologies, announced today the world’s first human
procedure of its corticaI interface in a patient undergoing brain tumor
resection. INBRAIN’s BCI technology was able to differentiate between healthy
and cancerous brain tissue with micrometer-scale precision.
This
milestone represents a significant advancement in demonstrating the ability of
graphene-based BCI technology beyond decoding and translating brain signals, to
become a reliable tool for use in precision surgery in diseases such as cancer,
and in neurotechnology more broadly. The study was sponsored by the University
of Manchester, and primarily funded by the European Commission’s Graphene Flagship project.
The
clinical investigation study was conducted at Salford Royal Hospital, part of
the Northern Care Alliance NHS Foundation Trust in Manchester, UK. The study
was led by Chief Clinical Investigator Dr. David Coope, a neurosurgeon at the
Manchester Centre for Clinical Neuroscience and Brain Tumours Theme Lead at the
Geoffrey Jefferson Brain Research Centre, and Chief Scientific Investigator
Kostas Kostarelos, Ph.D., Professor of Nanomedicine at The University of
Manchester, the Catalan Institute of Nanoscience & Nanotechnology, and
Co-Founder of INBRAIN.
“The world’s first human application of a graphene-based BCI highlights the
transformative impact of graphene-based neural technologies in medicine. This
clinical milestone opens a new era for BCI technology, paving the way for
advancements in both neural decoding and its application as a therapeutic
intervention,” said Carolina Aguilar, CEO and Co-Founder of INBRAIN
Neuroelectronics.
INBRAIN’s
BCI platform leverages the exceptional properties of graphene, a material made
of a single layer of carbon atoms. Despite being the thinnest known material to
science, graphene is stronger than steel and possesses a unique combination of
electronic and mechanical properties that make it ideal for neurotechnology
innovation.
“We
are capturing brain activity in areas where traditional metals and materials
struggle with signal fidelity. Graphene provides ultra-high density for sensing
and stimulating, which is critical to conduct high precision resections while
preserving the patient’s functional capacities, such as movement, language or
cognition,” said Dr. David Coope, the neurosurgeon who performed the procedure.
“After
extensive engineering development and pre-clinical trials, INBRAIN’s
first-in-human study will involve 8-10 patients, primarily to demonstrate the
safety of graphene in direct contact with the human brain,” said Kostas
Kostarelos, Ph.D., Co-Founder, INBRAIN Neuroelectronics. “The study will also
aim to demonstrate graphene’s superiority over other materials in decoding
brain functionality in both awake and asleep states.”
“The
integration of graphene and AI with advanced semiconductor technology has
allowed INBRAIN to pioneer a new generation of minimally-invasive BCI
therapeutics designed for the personalized treatment of neurological
disorders,” said Jose A. Garrido, Ph.D., Co-Founder and Chief Scientific
Officer of INBRAIN and ICREA Professor at the Catalan Institute of Nanoscience
and Nanotechnology.
More
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
I use
throughout the term 'liberal' in the original, nineteenth-century sense in
which it is still current in Britain. In current American usage it often means
very nearly the opposite of this. It has been part of the camouflage of leftish
movements in this country, helped by muddleheadedness of many who really
believe in liberty, that 'liberal' has come to mean the advocacy of almost
every kind of government control.
Friedrich
August von Hayek.
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