Baltic
Dry Index. 1928 -13 Brent
Crude 78.05
Spot
Gold 2654 U S 2 Year Yield 3.93 +0.23
If everyone is thinking alike, then no one is thinking.
Benjamin Franklin.
On
Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report came in suggesting a
roaring 20s booming US economy. And just ahead of the US November elections
too. What a lucky coincidence. Bidenomics works! Who knew?
US
stocks roared ahead. More boom ahead of November’s elections.
Well
maybe, but if somethings to good to be true, it probably isn’t. What will next
year’s revisions bring once past the November 5th elections?
We
open with “boom time” in the USA. What’s not to like?
Well,
if the US economy is booming like this, why is the Fed cutting interest rates
at all, risking the return of runaway inflation? Why did they cut by 0.50
percent?
What
does the Fed know that we don’t?
Dow
jumps 300 points for record close as September’s big jobs report spurs rally:
Live updates
Updated
Fri, Oct 4 2024 4:31 PM EDT
Stocks
advanced on Friday after an expectation-defying jobs report gave investors
confidence around the health of the economy.
The S&P 500 rose 0.9% to
5,751.07, while the Nasdaq
Composite jumped 1.22% to 18,137.85. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added
341.16 points, or 0.81%, to notch an all-time closing high of 42,352.75.
Stocks
rallied after data showed nonfarm payrolls grew by
254,000 jobs in September, far outpacing the forecasted gain of 150,000 from
economists polled by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%
despite expectations for it to hold steady at 4.2%.
“After
a summer of weak labor data readings, this is a reassuring reading that the
U.S. economy remains resilient, supported by a healthy labor market,” said
Michelle Cluver, head of ETF model portfolios at Global X. “We remain in an
environment where good economic news is good news for the equity market as it
increases the potential for a soft landing.”
Tesla, Amazon and Netflix were among the
megacap tech names climbing on Friday, which can help explain the Nasdaq’s
outperformance. Financials were the top sector in the S&P 500 during the
session, surging 1.6% and closing at a record. JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo jumped more than
3% each.
On
the other end of the spectrum, small cap stocks also rallied, with the Russell 2000 up 1.5%.
Friday’s
bounce erased losses seen in recent days. Mounting geopolitical tensions in the
Middle East gave way to a shaky
start in October for stocks, a turn after the market posted an unusually
strong first nine months of the year.
The
S&P 500 finished up 0.22% on the week, while the Dow inched higher by
0.09%. The Nasdaq added 0.1% for the week, a major turnaround given the
tech-heavy index came into Friday’s session down more than 1%.
Crude
oil prices rose again
on Friday, bringing the weekly gain to around 9%. Oil has been pushed higher as
a result of intensifying conflict in the Middle East after Iran launched
a missile attack on Israel.
Energy
stocks have jumped this week as oil rallied, with the S&P 500 sector up 7%.
That marked the group’s best week since October 2022.
Stock
market news for October 4, 2024 (cnbc.com)
U.S.
job creation roared higher in September as payrolls surged by 254,000
Published
Fri, Oct 4 2024 8:30 AM EDT Updated Fri, Oct 4 2024 10:05 AM EDT
The
U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in September, pointing to a
vital employment picture as the unemployment rate edged lower, the Labor
Department reported Friday.
Nonfarm
payrolls surged by 254,000 for the month, up from a revised 159,000 in August
and better than the 150,000 Dow Jones consensus forecast. The unemployment rate
fell to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage point.
With
upward revisions from previous months, the report eases concerns about the
state of the labor market and likely locks in the Federal Reserve to a more
gradual pace of interest rate reductions. August’s total was revised up by
17,000, while July saw a much larger addition of 55,000, taking the monthly
growth up to 144,000.
Strength
in job creation spilled over to wages, as average hourly earnings increased
0.4% on the month and were up 4% from a year ago. Both figures were ahead of
respective estimates for gains of 0.3% and 3.8%. The average workweek nudged
lower to 34.2 hours, down 0.1 hour.
“It
was ‘wow’ across the board, much stronger than expected,” Kathy Jones, chief
fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab, said of the report. “The bottom line
is it was a very good report. You get upward revisions and it tells you the job
market continues to be healthy, and that means the economy is healthy.”
Stock
market futures added to gains following the report while Treasury yields moved
sharply higher.
Restaurants
and bars led job creation for the month, with the hospitality industry adding
69,000 positions in September after averaging just 14,000 over the previous 12
months.
Health
care, a consistent leader in job growth, contributed 45,000, while government
grew by 31,000. Other gainers included social assistance (27,000) and
construction (25,000).
----The
survey of household employment, which is used to calculate the unemployment
rate, showed an even stronger picture, with a gain of 430,000 as the
employment-to-population ratio increasing to 60.2%, an increase of 0.2
percentage point.
Job
creation tilted strongly to full-time positions, which were up 414,000, while
those reporting part-time work fell by 95,000.
Futures
market pricing shifted sharply after the report, with traders now assigning a
strong chance of consecutive quarter percentage point interest rate cuts from
the Federal Reserve in November and December.
More
September
2024 U.S. jobs report: Job creation roared higher as payrolls surged by 254,000
(cnbc.com)
Fed
close to pulling off the elusive economic soft landing in 2024 after great
September jobs report
Published
Fri, Oct 4 2024 1:31 PM EDT
September’s
outsized payrolls boost takes the U.S. economy out of the shadows of recession
and gives the Federal Reserve a fairly open glide path to a soft landing.
If
that sounds like a Goldilocks scenario, it’s probably not far from it, even
with the lingering inflation concerns that are straining consumers’ wallets.
A
gravity-defying jobs market, at least a slowing pace of price increases and
declining interest rates puts the macro picture in a pretty good place right
now — a critical time from a policy and political standpoint.
“We’ve
been expecting a soft landing. This just gives us more confidence that it seems
to remain in place,” Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist at U.S. Bank, said after
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. “It also increases the possibility of a
no-landing as well, meaning even stronger economic data for 2025 than we
currently expect.”
The
jobs count certainly was better than virtually anyone figured, with companies
and the government combining to boost
payrolls by 254,000, blowing away the Dow Jones consensus for 150,000. It
was a big step up even from August’s upwardly revised numbers and reversed a
trend that started in April of decelerating job numbers and rising concern for
a broader slowdown — or worse.
Beyond
that, it virtually eliminated any chance that the Federal Reserve would be
repeating its half
percentage point interest rate cut from September anytime soon.
In
fact, futures markets reversed positioning after the report, pricing in a
near-certain probability of just a quarter-point move at the November Fed
meeting, followed by another quarter point in December, according to the CME
Group’s FedWatch gauge. Previously, markets had been looking
for a half-point in December followed by the equivalent of quarter-point cuts
at each of the eight Federal Open Market Committee meetings in 2025.
More
Finally,
more on that Spruce Pine, North Carolina silicon chip disruption.
Hurricane
Helene Shutters ‘Critical’ Quartz Mines That Power the World’s Electronics,
Solar Panels and A.I.
The
small town of Spruce Pine, North Carolina, is one of the only sources of
high-purity quartz on Earth, but it has been left battered by the storm’s heavy
rains
October
3, 2024 7:30 a.m.
High-quality quartz is the
cornerstone of the semiconductors operating nearly every tech gadget
worldwide. Cellphones, solar panels and
artificial intelligence all rely on this resource.
However,
such pure quartz is rare—it can only be found at a handful of places on Earth.
And a North Carolina town home to the world’s biggest deposit of the mineral
was just hit by Hurricane Helene.
Sitting
an hour northeast of Asheville, the small town of Spruce Pine, also known as
Mineral City, is home to about 2,000 people. It also contains a crucial supply
of the natural high-purity quartz required
for the computers and devices that run our modern world.
When
Hurricane Helene struck, Spruce Pine was doused in
more than two feet of rain, flooding its downtown, knocking out power and
forcing businesses to shutter. The quartz mines in Spruce Pine, owned by
Belgian mining company Sibelco and the local Quartz Corp, supply 80 to 90
percent of all high-quality quartz in the world, per CNN’s Clare
Duffy and Dianne Gallagher. But the two companies closed
down operations a
day before the storm crossed the region, with no word on when work would
resume.
“I
don’t think the nation really realizes how this little, small town is so
critical,” Michael Vance, a local real estate developer who has been informally
coordinating some relief efforts after the storm, tells the Washington
Post’s
Eva Dou.
----The
town’s pegmatites are composed of about 65 percent feldspar, 25 percent quartz, 8 percent mica and
trace amounts of other minerals. These have been used by Spruce Pine locals for
centuries, and for millennia, Native Americans mined mica to create beads,
decorative belts and money, according to Our State magazine.
It’s
the quartz, however, that stands out today. Because the mineral formed in an
area with almost no water, it’s exceptionally pure—water would have introduced
impurities into it. The process to create semiconductors requires quartz with
little to no impurities.
As
journalist Vince Beiser explains
in The
World in a Grain,
the semiconductor silicon can “conduct electricity at certain temperatures
while blocking it at others”—a trait that allows it to work well in
transistors, the small electronic switches that control the flow of electricity
within gadgets.
But
to be used in transistors, pure silicon must be melted down. As it melts, it
must be held in a container made of a specific material—one that’s capable of
withstanding high temperatures without contaminating the silicon. High-quality
quartz (or silicon dioxide) is the only material for this job. If impure quartz
is used, the outside materials can hamper the effectiveness of the transistor.
“Purity
really does matter,” Ed
Conway,
author of Material World: The Six Raw Materials That Shape Modern
Civilization, tells NPR’s All
Things Considered. “You’re talking about a process to create the silicon
wafers that later become silicon chips, where one single atom being in the
wrong place,” might throw off production.
The
highest-quality Spruce Pine quartz has an open crystal structure that, after
rounds of treatment to dissolve impurities, can be transformed into Iota quartz—which Beiser
calls the “industry standard of purity.”
As
a result, the quartz found in Spruce Pine is the workhorse of a $500 billion
microchip industry, writes Tommy Greene for WIRED. But
following Hurricane Helene, it might
be weeks before
the mines reopen, potentially causing shortages in the supply chain.
Currently,
the mining companies are coping with the storm’s disruptions to
infrastructure—roads are closed, and in some cases washed away, and cell
service is down. Some mine employees are missing.
I-40
Highway Disaster (Approx. 13 minutes.)
I-40 Highway Disaster - YouTube
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
Eurozone
downturn deepens as bloc's three largest economies contract
4 October 2024
Europe's three biggest economies shrank last month,
sending the wider eurozone into reverse, as demand tumbled and confidence ebbed
away.
Germany, France and Italy experienced contractions
in September – the first time they have done so simultaneously this year.
The purchasing managers’ index for the bloc fell
from 51.0 in August to 49.6, on a scale where the 50-mark separates growth from
contraction, and signifying the eurozone economy shrank for the first time
since February.
Germany, suffering a deepening industrial decline,
is Europe’s biggest economy and spearheaded the downturn.
France faded after an Olympics-driven boost while
Italy shrank marginally.
Cyrus de la Rubia, economist at Hamburg Commercial
Bank, which compiled the survey, said: ‘It is Germany where things look
bleakest, with companies cutting staff. ‘This is where the recession in
manufacturing is making itself felt.’
Eurozone downturn deepens as bloc's three largest economies contract
(msn.com)
Growth slows to near halt in German
services sector in September, PMI shows
3 October 2024
BERLIN (Reuters)
- Growth in Germany's services sector slowed for a fourth consecutive month in September,
coming to a near standstill, a survey showed on Thursday, as falling demand and
recession concerns painted a gloomy picture for Europe's biggest economy.
The HCOB final
services Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 50.6 from 51.2 in August.
Hitting a
six-month low, the September reading remained just above the 50.0 mark that
separates growth from contraction.
"The
services sector is increasingly losing its role as an anchor for the
economy," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial
Bank, pointing to a sharp drop in incoming orders as a particular concern.
"If the
downward trend continues, the economy will probably go downhill for a few more
months before things improve again," he added.
Cuts to staffing
accelerated in the services sector in September but remained moderate,
according to a survey.
Expectations for
the year ahead were more subdued than a year ago, with optimists outnumbering
pessimists only slightly, as 25% versus 23%, and many participants in the
survey expressing concern about an impending recession.
The composite
PMI index, which comprises services and manufacturing, fell to 47.5 in
September from 48.4 in August.
Growth slows to near halt in German services sector in September, PMI
shows (msn.com)
Covid-19
Corner
This section will
continue until it becomes unneeded.
Nothing new this weekend. More next weekend, probably/hopefully.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Well
maybe, but will there be enough passengers prepared to pay to die fly in
pilotless planes?
Incredible plan for world’s first AI passenger plane with NO PILOT
where travellers can sit in cockpit & enjoy the view
Watch the
incredible plans come to life in the video above
Annabel Bate,
Foreign News Reporter Published: 9:14
ET, Oct 2 2024
THIS could be the world's first AI passenger plane where
travellers can sit in the cockpit and enjoy the view - because there's no
pilot.
The fully autonomous private jet concept
has been revealed by aerospace giant Embraer - and it represents a breakthrough
in futuristic aviation.
The company has joined with Bombardier
to provide the futuristic vision of a business jet - that's piloted by
artificial intelligence.
At the National Business Aviation
Association event in Orlando, Florida, the jet giant unveiled the plans for
a future medium-size cabin jet.
The breakthrough plan features a cabin
with three zones, Embraer revealed on X.
One of the zones shows a lounge with
copious amounts of space for seating - including in the cockpit.
But the jet wouldn't have so much space
if it weren't for the autonomous design where there's no need for a cockpit or
pilot.
The futuristic cabin plan is also
pictured featuring windows with touchscreens.
The plane is also designed run entirely
off sustainable fuel and has a design that has no engines in the wings.
Instead, the engines seem to be situated
one above the other and have three air intakes - one on top of the fueselage
and two to the side.
It also sports a V-tail - which is never
seen on business jets - and an engine configuration with two turbofans in the
tail.
Embraer told AertoTime: "The
concept presented was a fully autonomous aircraft that will eliminate the need
for a cockpit and enable new cabin configurations, such as a forward lounge.
More
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Another of the great forgotten unknowns. Approx. 9 minutes.
Evaristo
Felice Dall'Abaco: Concerto in D major for Strings & B.c Op.6 No.12
Evaristo Felice Dall'Abaco: Concerto in D major for Strings & B.c Op.6 No.12 (youtube.com)
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 12 minutes.
"Serious
Series Of Brilliant Moves" || Hidden Gem Of The Olympiad
"Serious Series Of Brilliant Moves" || Hidden Gem Of The Olympiad (youtube.com)
This weekend’s final diversion. Ten Pin Bowling. Approx. 15 minutes.
How
does a Bowling Pinsetter Machine work? (Brunswick GS-X)
How does a Bowling
Pinsetter Machine work? (Brunswick GS-X) (youtube.com)
I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the
madness of people.
Sir Isaac Newton.
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