Baltic
Dry Index. 1480 -66 Brent Crude 75.97
Spot Gold 2751 US 2 Year Yield 4.03 +0.07
Even in such a time of madness as the late twenties, a great many men in Wall Street remained quite sane. But they also remained very quiet. The sense of responsibility in the financial community for the community as a whole is not small. It is nearly nil. Perhaps this is inherent. In a community where the primary concern is making money, one of the necessary rules is to live and let live. To speak out against madness may be to ruin those who have succumbed to it. So the wise in Wall Street are nearly always silent. The foolish thus have the field to themselves. None rebukes them.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
Ignore the stock casinos for now. Is the global economy rolling over as consumers run out of cash, credit and buy now pay later debt traps?
One sign that the global economy is turning from boom to bust is the dire state of global auto sales.
Another sign of a consumer world moving from boom to bust is US credit card debt having soared from roughly 400 billion in 2021 to 600+ billion in 2024.
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
Earnest Hemingway. “The Sun Also Rises”.
Asia
stocks mostly rise after Wall Street rally stalls; Tokyo Metro shares soar on
debut
Updated
Wed, Oct 23 2024 12:33 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly rose Tuesday, breaking ranks with major Wall Street benchmarks,
while Japanese subway operator Tokyo Metro’s stellar market debut boosted
investor optimism.
Shares
of Tokyo Metro soared
as much as 47%, and were last trading up nearly 45%.
The
company, one of Japan’s leading subway operators and the largest in Tokyo,
raised 348.6 billion yen in its initial public offering, the largest IPO in
Japan since 2018.
The
IPO was reportedly 15 times oversubscribed and priced at the top end of its
pricing band, offering shares at 1,200 yen apiece.
Economic
data that will be coming out of Asia includes September inflation numbers from
Singapore — expected to come in at 1.9%, its slowest rise since March 2021,
according to a Reuters poll of economists.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 traded down
0.8% on Wednesday, but the broad-based Topix was down 0.42%.
South
Korea’s Kospi climbed
1.18%, while the small-cap Kosdaq inched 0.45% higher.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded near
the flatline.
Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng index was
jumped 1.67%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was trading close to the flatline,
up 0.57%.
Overnight
in the U.S., the S&P 500 and
the Dow Jones Industrial
Average ended Tuesday marginally lower, both posting a second straight
day of losses.
The S&P 500 ended the session
lower by 0.05%, and it was the broad market index’s first back-to-back loss
since early September.
The
30-stock Dow slid
0.02%, but the Nasdaq
Composite rose 0.18%.
Asia markets live: Tokyo Metro IPO, Singapore CPI
Stock
futures slide after S&P 500 posts first back-to-back decline since early
September: Live updates
Updated
Wed, Oct 23 2024 8:34 PM EDT
Stock
futures fell on Tuesday evening after the S&P 500 posted its first
back-to-back loss since early September.
Futures
linked to the broad market
index lost nearly 0.1%. Dow futures slid 126 points,
or 0.3%, while Nasdaq 100
futures dropped 0.1%.
In
after-hours action, McDonald’s fell
nearly 6%. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said an E. coli
outbreak tied to the fast-food giant’s Quarter
Pounder burgers has resulted in 10 hospitalizations and one
death. Starbucks tumbled
4% after the coffee chain issued preliminary quarterly results showing that its
sales fell again.
In
regular trading, the S&P
500 and the Dow Jones
Industrial Average both posted marginal declines. The Nasdaq Composite, however, rose
about 0.2%.
The 10-year Treasury yield has
been on an upturn as of late, briefly topping 4.2% on Tuesday and keeping
stocks under pressure.
Robust
economic data and deficit worries are among the factors behind the
rise in the 10-year Treasury yield – despite a half-point rate cut from the
Federal Reserve in September. Traders are also growing concerned that central
bank policymakers may be less inclined to reduce rates, even as the Fed had
forecasted another half-point
worth of trimming before the year ends.
To
be sure, the backdrop for equities is still constructive, according to Jeff
deGraaf, head of technical research at Renaissance Macro Research.
“The
trends are still positive and we don’t have a lot of near-term momentum, but
that’s not the end of the world by any means,” he said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” “In fact, a lot of
times that results in a good setup because it’s a consolidation.”
“By
investing today, the next three months historically are never brighter than
they are here at the end of October,” deGraaf added.
A
slate of notable names will be reporting earnings on Wednesday. AT&T, Coca-Cola and Boeing are on deck before the
bell, while Tesla and IBM will share results after
the close.
Stock market today: Live updates
In other news.
IMF
warns on China’s property market worsening as it cuts country’s growth outlook
Published
Tue, Oct 22 2024 9:43 PM EDT
The
International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of a possible worsening of the state
of China’s property market as it trimmed its growth expectations for the
world’s second-largest economy.
In a report published Tuesday, the IMF trimmed its
forecast for growth in China for this year to 4.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower
than in its July projection. In 2025, growth is expected to come in at 4.5%,
according to the IMF.
The
Washington, D.C.-based organization also highlighted that China’s property
sector contracting by more than expected is one of many downside risks for the
global economic outlook.
“Conditions
for the real estate market could worsen, with further price corrections taking
place amid a contraction in sales and investment,” the report said.
Historical
property crises in other countries like Japan (in the 1990s) and the U.S. (in
2008) show that unless the crisis in China is addressed, prices could correct
further, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook noted. This in turn could send
consumer confidence lower and reduce household consumption and domestic demand,
the agency explained.
---- China’s
Minister of Finance then earlier this month hinted
that the country had space to increase its debt and its deficit. Lan Fo’an
signaled that more stimulus was on its way and policy changes around debt and
the deficit could come soon. The Chinese
housing ministry meanwhile announced that it was expanding its
“whitelist” of real estate projects and speeding up bank lending for those
unfinished developments.
Some
measures from the Chinese authorities have already been included in the IMF’s
latest projections, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the IMF told
CNBC’S Karen Tso on Tuesday.
“They
are certainly going in the right direction, not enough to move the needle from
the 4.8% we’re projecting for this year and 4.5% for next year,” he said,
noting that the more recent measures were still being assessed and have not
been incorporated into the agency’s projections so far.
“They
[the more recent support measures] could provide some upside risk in terms of
output, but this is the context in which the third quarter of Chinese economic
activity has disappointed on the downside, so we have this tension between, on
the one hand, the economy is not doing as well, and then there is a need for
support. Is there going to be enough support? We don’t know yet,” Gourinchas
said.
More
IMF warns on China's property market worsening
Starbucks
shares slide after coffee chain says sales fell again, suspends outlook
Published
Tue, Oct 22 2024 4:11 PM EDT Updated Tue, Oct 22 2024 5:34 PM EDT
Starbucks on Tuesday posted preliminary quarterly results that showed its
sales fell again as the coffee chain tries to execute a turnaround.
“Our
fourth quarter performance makes it clear that we need to fundamentally change
our strategy so we can get back to growth and that’s exactly what we are doing
with our ‘Back to Starbucks’ plan,” CEO Brian Niccol said in a statement.
Niccol
said he plans to share more details on the steps Starbucks is taking to turn
around the business on the company’s earnings call, scheduled for Oct. 30. The
coffee chain’s new CEO aims to reverse slowing demand for Starbucks’ drinks,
starting with its largest market: the U.S.
Already,
the CEO said the company is “fundamentally changing” its marketing by
refocusing on all of its customers, not just members of its loyalty program. He
added that Starbucks plans to simplify its “overly complex menu,” fix its
pricing and make sure all of its drinks are handed directly to customers. All
three of those goals have been top complaints from customers and baristas in
recent years.
“We
believe that our problems are very fixable and that we have significant
strengths to build on,” Niccol said in prepared remarks released on the company’s website on
Tuesday.
The
company’s preliminary net sales fell 3% to $9.1 billion. It reported
preliminary adjusted earnings per share of 80 cents.
Analysts
surveyed by LSEG were expecting the company to report fiscal fourth-quarter
earnings per share of $1.03 and revenue of $9.38 billion.
Shares
of the company fell more than 3% in extended trading on the announcement.
Slumping
sales
For
the third consecutive quarter, Starbucks’ same-store sales fell. This quarter’s
7% decline in same-store sales was the company’s steepest drop since the
Covid-19 pandemic.
The
company blamed its soft sales on weaker demand in North America. In its home
market, its same-store sales decreased 6%. Traffic tumbled 10%, despite
increased investments in the business, such as more frequent promotions in its
mobile app and an expanded range of product offerings.
In
China, its second-largest market, same-store sales plummeted 14%. The company
attributed the decline to competition in the country, which it said is altering
consumer behavior and changing the company’s strategy for the market.
The
company also suspended its fiscal 2025 outlook, citing the recent CEO
transition and the “current state of the business.”
Despite
the dismal quarter, the company increased its dividend from 57 cents to 61
cents per share.
“We
want to amplify our confidence in the business, and provide some certainty as
we drive our turnaround,” Chief Financial Officer Rachel Ruggeri said in a
statement.
Ruggeri
added that the company is developing a plan to turn around the business, but
creating a strategy will take time.
More
Starbucks releases preliminary results, says sales fell again
German Auto Giant in Financial Trouble: 950 Jobs on the Line
21
October 2024
Car
supplier Brose plans to cut 950 jobs.
The
German automotive sub-supplier, which develops mechatronic units, is laying off
a large portion of its workforce as part of a major cost-cutting plan.
This
was confirmed by Brose's chairman, Michael Stoschek, in an interview with Frankfurter
Allgemeine Zeitung.
Stoschek
explained that the job cuts would mainly affect the administrative side of
operations, focusing on highly paid employees who will now need to seek new
opportunities. The decision, he said, stems from a need for greater efficiency.
In
the interview, Stoschek emphasized the need to reduce hierarchies and increase
responsibility distribution among fewer managers, which Brose hopes will help
it navigate the financial challenges facing the German car industry.
The
chairman said the cuts were necessary regardless of timing, and the company’s
communications team later confirmed this interpretation of the situation,
according to BR.de.
A
company spokesperson added on Tuesday that the 950 positions would be cut
globally by the end of 2025. It remains unclear how these reductions will be
divided between Brose's national and international divisions.
The
trade union IG Metall has long been aware of these planned cuts, linking them
to an already ongoing downsizing at Brose. According to a meeting in the summer
of 2024, up to 240 jobs at the Bamberg branch alone are expected to disappear.
The union hopes the reductions will be handled “as socially responsibly as
possible” through voluntary resignations and pension schemes.
Other
German branches, including Coburg and Würzburg, are also expected to be
affected. IG Metall Bamberg fears similar cuts may be imposed on Brose's
international locations, though the full scope has not yet been made public.
Michael
Stoschek, who previously stepped down from daily management, has now returned
as chairman and taken full responsibility for the company's direction.
Brose,
a family-owned business, employs 32,000 people and most recently reported a
turnover of nearly eight billion euros.
German Auto Giant in Financial Trouble: 950 Jobs on the Line
McDonald’s
shares fall after CDC says E. coli outbreak linked to Quarter Pounders
Published
Tue, Oct 22 2024 4:20 PM EDT Updated Tue, Oct 22 2024 5:49 PM EDT
McDonald’s shares dropped in
extended trading Tuesday after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
said an E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald’s Quarter Pounder
burgers has led to 10 hospitalizations and one death.
The
agency said 49 cases have been reported in 10 states between Sept. 27 and Oct.
11, with most of the illnesses in Colorado and Nebraska. “Most” sick people
reported eating a McDonald’s Quarter Pounder, the CDC added.
One
of the patients developed hemolytic uremic syndrome, which is a serious
condition that can cause kidney failure. An older adult in Colorado died.
McDonald’s
shares dropped about 7% in after-hours trading Tuesday.
In
a statement Tuesday, McDonald’s said it is taking “swift and
decisive action” following the E. Coli outbreak in certain states.
The
company said initial findings from the ongoing investigation show that some of
the illnesses may be linked to slivered onions — or fresh onions sliced into
thin shapes — that are used in the Quarter Pounder and sourced by a single
supplier that serves three distribution centers. McDonald’s has instructed all
local restaurants to remove slivered onions from their supply and has paused
the distribution of that ingredient in the affected area.
Quarter
Pounder hamburgers will be temporarily unavailable in several Western states,
including Colorado, Kansas, Utah and Wyoming, and portions of other states,
McDonald’s said. It added that it was working with suppliers to replenish
ingredients.
The
majority of states and menu items are not affected by the outbreak, McDonald’s
USA President Joe Erlinger said in a video. The company’s other beef products,
including the cheeseburger, hamburger, Big Mac, McDouble and the double
cheeseburger, are not affected, he added. Those sandwiches use a different type
of onion product.
More
McDonald's shares fall after CDC says E. coli outbreak linked to Quarter Pounders
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
IMF
says global fight against inflation is ‘almost won’ but warns of rising risks
Published
Tue, Oct 22 2024 9:00 AM EDT
Much
of the world has managed to successfully lower inflation and engineer an
economic soft landing, avoiding recession, but faces rising geopolitical risks
and weaker long-term growth prospects, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Global
headline inflation will fall to 3.5% on an annual basis by the end of 2025,
from an average 5.8% in 2024, the agency said in its World Economic Outlook
released on Tuesday. Inflation peaked at a year-over-year rate of 9.4% in the
third quarter of 2022. The yearend 2025 rate is slightly below the average
annual rise in prices in the two decades before the Covid-19 pandemic.
“The
global battle against inflation is almost won,” the IMF report trumpeted, even
as it called for “a policy triple pivot” to address interest rates, government
spending and reforms and investment to boost productivity.
“Despite
the good news on inflation, downside risks are increasing and now dominate the
outlook,” said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. Now that
inflation is headed in the right direction, global policymarkers face a new
challenge stemming from the rate of growth in the world economy, the IMF
warned.
The
fund kept its global growth estimate at 3.2% for 2024 and 2025 — which it
called “stable yet underwhelming.” The United States is now forecast to see
faster growth, and strong expansions are also likely in emerging Asian
economies as a result of robust artificial intelligence-related investments.
But the IMF lowered its outlook for other advanced economies — notably the
largest European nations — as well as several emerging markets, blaming
intensifying global conflicts and ensuing risk to commodity prices.
More
Global fight
against inflation 'almost won' but risks are rising: IMF
The
UniParty Consensus—Spend, Borrow & Print—Won’t Be Broken In 2024
david stockman Oct 22, 2024
The
deeply embedded economic policy of the UniParty boils down to “spend, borrow
and print”. There are slight difference of emphasis and priorities between the
Dem and GOP wings of Washington’s Infernal Inflation Machine, but it all ends
up in the same place.
For
want of doubt, consider the graphic below. Since the Gipper rode into
Washington in January 1981 vowing to tame the nation’s dangerously rising
public debt, Uncle Sam’s IOU mountain has risen from $900 billion to $36
trillion. That a nice round 40X gain in slightly more
than 40 years.
Needless
to say, neither the GDP nor Federal revenues have remotely kept up. GDP has
risen by just 9.5X and Federal revenue is up from about $600 billion to $4.9
trillion in FY 2024.
That’s
a mere 8X gain, meaning that when your debt is
growing five times faster than your revenue, a day of fiscal
reckoning will indeed come. That was hinted at in the fiscal year just ended,
when interest payments crossed the trillion-dollar barrier for the first time,
clocking in at $1.13 trillion or 23% of total revenue collections.
So
with debt levels and interest payments in a self-fueling spiral, the impending
fiscal conflagration will likely materialize sooner rather than later. As we
demonstrated last week, the likely addition of the Donald to the chart below
for a second term means that the $25 trillion of additional debt built into
existing UniParty policy over the next decade would grow by another $10
trillion if his ever-expanding list of tax cuts and spending increases are
actually adopted. Accordingly, the red bar on the chart would reach $70
trillion by 2034 and upwards of $150 trillion by
mid-century.
More
The UniParty Consensus—Spend, Borrow & Print—Won’t Be Broken In 2024
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
NHS 10-day Covid warning as cases, deaths and hospitalisations jump up
The
NHS has said people could be unknowingly spreading the infection to others.
By Fiona Callingham, Health
Reporter specialising in medical studies, symptoms of diseases and conditions,
real life stories and the latest public health issues.
12:39, Mon, Oct 21,
2024 | UPDATED: 12:44, Mon, Oct 21, 2024
The NHS has issued a 10-day Covid warning in a bid to reduce the spread of
infection amid a rise in cases. According to the latest data from the UK Health
Security Agency (UKHSA), Covid cases in England rose by 17.8 percent in one
week while deaths increased by 27.3 percent.
In the week up to October
9 there were a total of 3,496 Covid cases - 529 more than the seven days prior.
There were also 163 deaths (up by 35) and 2,622 hospital admissions (up by
149).
Although there are no
longer any mandatory rules about self-isolation if you have Covid, the NHS still advises avoiding contact with others
if becoming ill. The UK's health body warns that COVID-19 spreads “very easily through close contact with
people who have the virus”.
It explains: “When
someone with COVID-19 breathes, speaks,
coughs or sneezes, they release small droplets containing the virus. You can
catch it by breathing in these droplets, or by touching surfaces covered in
them and then touching your eyes, nose or mouth.
“You are more likely to
catch it indoors and in crowded places.”
The NHS added that you
can still be infectious for “up to 10 days”. You can also still catch or
spread COVID-19 if you:
·
Do not have symptoms
·
Are fully vaccinated
·
Have had the virus
before.
More
NHS 10-day Covid warning as cases and deaths jump up | Express.co.uk
New strain of deadly virus found in Germany
22 October 2024
A new, more infectious strain of the potentially
deadly mpox virus has been found in Germany for the first time, health chiefs
in the country have said.
The Robert Koch Institute
(RKI), Germany's disease
control centre, said on Tuesday the risk to the wider population was low but it
"is monitoring the situation very closely and adjusting its
recommendations if necessary".
It said the carrier of
the clade Ib form of the virus was infected abroad but gave no other details,
including where the case was being treated.
At least 1,000 deaths
have been reported across Africa as of last week, prompting the World Health
Organisation (WHO) to declare the increasing spread of the disease a global
health emergency for the second time in two years.
Most of the cases have
been recorded in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which has seen
a total of 5,399 cases and 25 deaths in 2024 up to 15 September.
Almost 800 cases of mpox
have been confirmed there in the past four weeks, according to WHO, but 18 out
of 55 African countries are battling outbreaks of the illness.
The total number of
suspected cases in Africa since the beginning of the year now stands at 42,438,
with 8,113 confirmed as mpox, according to the Africa Centres for Disease
Control and Prevention.
More
New
strain of deadly virus found in Germany
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the development
of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
Over 6,000
Audi e-tron GTs Have Battery Packs That May Short Circuit And Catch Fire
October
18, 2024
Shortly
after Porsche was forced to recall almost 28,000 Taycans in the United States
due to a potential battery short circuit, Audi did
the same with the mechanically-related e-tron GT and RS e-tron GT models, and
for the same reason.
Audi
has revealed that 2022-2024 e-tron GT and RS e-tron GT models are equipped with
high-voltage batteries from LG Energy Solution which have modules that may
short circuit and are at an increased risk of catching fire. Owners of impacted
vehicles won’t receive any kind of warning if a short circuit occurs.
Read: Porsche
Taycan Recall Means You’re Stuck Charging To 80% Until 2025
This
recall is an expansion of two
battery-related recalls announced for the e-ton
GT family back in March. At the time of the March recalls, a total of 1,042
models were impacted, and Audi replaced all high-voltage battery modules after
a period of analysis. However, Audi has since determined that the individual
cells in the battery modules can change throughout their lifetime and require
continuous monitoring.
With
this in mind, impacted EVs will be equipped with onboard diagnostic software
that can detect any future high-voltage battery module data anomalies. If
anything untoward is found, the high-voltage battery will be replaced free of
charge.
A
total of 6,499 vehicles in the US are embroiled in this latest recall. These
consist of 4,980 e-tron GTs built between March 26, 2021, and December 22,
2023, as well as 1,519 RS e-tron GTs assembled from March 18, 2021, to February
15, 2024. Audi has not received any customer complaints or been notified of any
injuries, crashes, or fires related to the issue.
Just
like in the case of the recall involving the Porsche Taycan, the diagnostic
software for the two Audi EVs won’t be ready until the first quarter of 2025.
In the meantime, owners of vehicles with online data systems enabled will be
contacted if a potentially critical battery module is detected and advised to
only charge the pack to 80% until the module can be replaced.
Over 6,000 Audi
e-tron GTs Have Battery Packs That May Short Circuit And Catch Fire
9 electric
buses burn in suspected lithium battery fire in Taichung
Buses
owned by now-defunct Sifang Electric Bus Company, seized by bank
Oct.
22, 2024 11:30
TAIPEI
(Taiwan News) — Nine electric buses burst into flames on Monday (Oct 21)
possibly due to their lithium-ion batteries.
The
Taichung City Fire Department received a fire report in a bus parking lot on
Jinghe Street in Beitun District at 2 a.m., per UDN. It
dispatched 21 fire trucks and 46 firefighters to the scene.
The
fire occurred in an electric bus depot for a company that had ceased
operations. Firefighters extinguished the fire by 4:09 a.m., and no injuries
were reported.
Nine
electric buses were burned—eight destroyed and one partially damaged. No
suspicious individuals were found after reviewing surveillance footage.
The
cause of the fire is under investigation. A malfunction of the buses'
lithium-ion batteries or other electrical issues were named as possible
causes.
The
electric buses were owned by the now-defunct Sifang Electric Bus Company,
per Newtalk. Last year the company faced a wage dispute, which
led to a full strike by its drivers and the resignation of all its employees.
The
bank repossessed several of the company’s electric buses following Sifang's
bankruptcy in October 2023. Taichung's transportation bureau said the vehicles
had been put out of operation.
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
When
you see reference to a new paradigm you should always, under all circumstances,
take cover. Because ever since the great tulipmania in 1637, speculation has
always been covered by a new paradigm. There was never a paradigm so new and so
wonderful as the one that covered John Law and the South Sea Bubble - until the
day of disaster.
John
Kenneth Galbraith.
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