Baltic Dry Index. 1907 -21 Brent Crude 77.77
Spot
Gold 2620 US 2 Year Yield 3.98 -0.01
The people cannot delegate to government the power to do anything which would be unlawful for them to do themselves.
John Locke.
In the stock casinos more churn and burn. But the days big story will likely be how much damage hurricane Milton does in Florida as it makes land fall later today.
In economic news, Goldman lowered its odds of a US recession to just 15 percent following last week’s stellar, if questionable, US jobs report.
From a soaring US deficit, to the Boeing strike, to hurricane damage and insurance losses, to falling french fries sales at McDonalds, I suspect, Goldman will likely be wrong.
China's
CSI 300 plunges over 5% as Hong Kong stocks extend losses: Live updates
Updated
Wed, Oct 9 2024 12:40 AM EDT
Chinese
stocks sold off in another volatile day of trading amid mixed Asia-Pacific
markets Wednesday.
The
mainland CSI 300 dropped 5.3% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index extended its
losses, falling 1.4%. On Tuesday, the HSI recorded its worst day in 16 years,
closing 9.41% lower.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 0.78%,
while the broad-based Topix gained 0.18%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was little
changed.
Investors
are focused on policy decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the
Reserve Bank of India.
New
Zealand’s central bank slashed its policy rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%,
while the RBI is expected to hold rates at 6.5%.
South
Korea’s markets are closed for a public holiday.
Overnight
in the U.S., stocks rose as oil prices eased.
The S&P 500 gained 0.97%, and
the Nasdaq Composite rose
1.45%. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average added 0.3%.
West Texas Intermediate oil
futures dropped
4.6% Tuesday as traders monitored Israel’s expected retaliation to
Iran missile attacks and U.S. efforts to prevent a wider regional conflict.
Asia markets live: RBNZ, RBI decision, (cnbc.com)
European
markets head for mixed open as positive sentiment wavers
Updated
Wed, Oct 9 202 412:45 AM EDT
European
stocks are heading for a flat to mixed open Wednesday as positive sentiment
wavers in the region, spurred by market volatility in China.
Regional
markets traded and closed lower Tuesday, with all major bourses and the
majority of sectors trading in the red during the day. The lackluster session
came after a shaky start to the week, with investors responding to a slowdown
in China’s stimulus rally.
Chinese
stocks sold off in another volatile day of trading amid mixed Asia-Pacific markets overnight
with the mainland CSI 300 dropping 6%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index extending its
losses, falling 2.5%. On Tuesday, the HSI recorded its worst day in 16 years,
closing 9.41% lower.
U.S.
stock futures hovered near the flatline Tuesday night after a winning
session for the major averages. Wall Street is coming off a strong
session for the major averages Tuesday as tech stocks outperformed,
and oil prices eased off their highs.
Events
to watch out for in Europe today include the German government’s latest
economic forecasts and the latest meeting of NATO defense ministers in Belgium.
Europe
markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Finally, Boeing. Will/has the strike destroy(ed) Boeing?
Boeing
withdraws contract offer after talks with union end without a deal
Published
Tue, Oct 8 2024 11:56 PM EDT
Boeing withdrew a contract
offer for 33,000 machinists who have been on strike since mid-September, and
said further negotiations “do not make sense at this point.”
The
machinists walked off the job on Sept. 13 after overwhelmingly rejecting a
tentative labor deal, halting production of most of Boeing’s aircraft, which
are made in the Puget Sound area. Boeing later sweetened the offer, increasing
pay raises, a ratification bonus and other improvements, which the union turned
down, arguing that it was not negotiated.
Talks
again broke down this week, meaning the strike will continue. The stoppage will
cost Boeing more than $1 billion per month, S&P Global Ratings said Tuesday
as it issued a negative outlook for the aerospace giant’s credit ratings.
Stephanie
Pope, CEO of Boeing’s commercial aircraft unit, said the company improved
contract pay during talks this week but said the union didn’t consider the
proposals.
“Instead,
the union made non-negotiable demands far in excess of what can be accepted if
we are to remain competitive as a business,” Pope said in a staff note.
The
union, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, said
Tuesday that Boeing refused to improve wages, retirement plans and vacation or
sick leave.
Boeing withdraws contract offer after talks with union end without a deal (cnbc.com)
Boeing at Risk of S&P Junk Rating as Strike Continues
October
8, 2024 at 10:56 PM GMT+1
How
did it come to this? S&P Global Ratings is weighing downgrading the credit
score of Boeing, one of America’s most storied companies, to junk. The
embattled planemaker continues to suffer from the fallout of a protracted labor
strike. The walkout however is just the latest crisis for a company whose
recent stretch of troubles go back at least six years, to two horrific crashes
of its flawed 737 Max planes that killed 346 people. Since then, the hits have kept coming for Boeing. As for S&P, it estimates
the company will incur a cash outflow of approximately $10 billion in 2024, due
in part to costs associated with the strike. The company is also likely to need
additional funding to meet its day-to-day cash needs and finance debt
maturities. Junk rated companies usually face higher borrowing costs than their
investment-grade counterparts. Boeing has $4 billion of debt coming due in 2025
and also $8 billion coming due in 2026, Moody’s Ratings said last month. If the strike continues toward the end of the
year, a credit rating downgrade is more likely, S&P warned.
Bloomberg Evening Briefing: Boeing at Risk of S&P Junk Rating Amid Strike - Bloomberg
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Federal
Deficit Hit $1.8 Trillion for 2024, CBO Says
U.S.
budget shortfalls fueled by interest costs, Social Security, Medicare
By Richard
Rubin Updated Oct. 8, 2024 7:03
pm ET
WASHINGTON—The
U.S. budget deficit topped $1.8 trillion in the latest fiscal year, driven by
higher spending on interest and programs for older Americans, as the
government faces
a persistent gap between federal outlays and tax collections.
The
new data comes as Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and
Democratic pick Kamala
Harris are both proposing new tax and spending plans that are
estimated to add
trillions more to the deficit over the next decade.
Whoever
wins the election will face immediate decisions next year about agencies’
spending levels, the federal debt limit and expiring tax cuts. That debate will
be pulled one way by a future filled with projections of red ink and pulled the
other by Americans who enjoy federal benefits and lower taxes.
In
all, the government collected $4.92 trillion in revenue and spent $6.75
trillion, putting the deficit at $1.83 trillion for the year that ended Sept.
30, according to the Congressional Budget Office, which issued its
estimates ahead of the official administration tallies expected later
this month.
The
deficit in 2023 was officially $1.7 trillion, but it was actually larger than
that. That is because the government recorded more than $300 billion in
spending for student-debt cancellation in 2022 and recorded a similar-size
spending cut in 2023 when the Supreme
Court blocked President Biden’s program.
After
making that adjustment, the deficit was slightly smaller in 2024 than in 2023.
Overall, the deficit was 4% smaller than CBO had projected in June.
The
largest federal entitlement programs—Social Security and Medicare—cost 6% more
than they did in fiscal 2023, or even more when adjusting for the timing of
some payments, according to CBO. The U.S. spent $950 billion on interest, up
34% from the prior year, mostly because of higher interest rates. Interest
costs surpassed military spending.
More
Federal
Deficit Hit $1.8 Trillion for 2024, CBO Says - WSJ
Goldman
Sachs lowers odds of US recession to 15% after better-than-expected jobs report
By Reuters October 7, 20247:46 AM GMT+1
Oct
7 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs has lowered the odds of the United States slipping
into a recession in the next 12 months by five percentage points to 15%,
following the latest employment report that showed better-than-expected data.
U.S.
job gains increased by the most
in six months in September and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the Labor
Department reported on Friday.
The
September employment report has "reset the labor market narrative"
and calmed fears about the labor demand "weakening too quickly to prevent
the unemployment rate from trending higher," Goldman Sachs chief U.S.
economist Jan Hatzius said in a note on Sunday.
The
Wall Street brokerage maintained its forecast of consecutive 25 basis points
cuts to reach a terminal rate of 3.25-3.5% by June 2025.
"We
now see much less risk of another 50-bps rate cut," Hatzius said.
The
Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by 50 bps in September to the 4.75%-5.00%
range, its first rate reduction since 2020.
Financial
markets boosted the odds of a quarter-percentage-point reduction in November to
95.2% from 71.5% before the report, CME Group's FedWatch tool showed.
While
the job numbers have been volatile, they can likely be taken at face value as
there are no clear indications for further persistent negative revisions, the
Wall Street brokerage said.
"More
broadly, we see no obvious reason for job growth to be mediocre at a time when
job openings are high and GDP (gross domestic product) is growing
strongly," Hatzius said.
However,
October is likely to be a particularly complicated month, with both a hurricane
and a major strike threatening to depress payrolls, the brokerage cautioned.
Goldman Sachs lowers odds of US recession to 15% after better-than-expected jobs report | Reuters
America’s french fry king sounds an alarm
Updated
2:13 PM EDT, Tue October 8, 2024
Americans
are revolting against
McDonald’s and fast-food chains. That’s hurting french fry suppliers like Lamb
Weston.
Lamb
Weston, the largest producer of french fries in North America and a major
supplier to fast-food chains, restaurants and grocery stores, is closing a
production plant in Washington state. The company announced last week that it
would lay off nearly 400 employees, or 4% of its workforce, and temporarily cut
production lines in response to slowing customer demand.
Shares
of Lamb Weston (LW) have
dropped 35% this year.
The
potato giant is oversupplied at a time when demand is sluggish. Restaurant
prices in recent years have increased faster than
grocery store prices, leading customers to pull back at fast-food chains.
This
shift has taken a toll on Lamb Weston because people are less likely to cook
french fries at home. Around 80% of french fries consumed in the United States
come from fast-food chains, according to Lamb Weston.
Fast-food
chains like McDonald’s are dangling value menus to try to lure customers back.
McDonald’s has launched a $5 meal, which includes a McDouble cheeseburger or
a McChicken sandwich, small french fries, 4-piece chicken nuggets and small
soft drink. But these deals aren’t helping Lamb Weston because people are
buying smaller portions of fries.
“Many
of these promotional meal deals have consumers trading down from a medium fry
to a small fry,” Lamb Weston CEO Thomas Werner said last week on an earnings
call.
Lamb
Weston did not immediately respond to CNN’s request for comment.
McDonald’s,
its largest customer, accounts for 13% of Lamb Weston’s sales. As McDonald’s
goes, so goes Lamb Weston.
And
McDonald’s is struggling. Sales at US restaurants open at least a year fell
0.7% last quarter from the same period a year earlier, dragged down by fewer
customers visiting the chain.
More
America’s french fry king sounds an alarm | CNN Business
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
New
highly contagious Covid XEC 'just getting started' - it's now on track to be
most dominant in UK
Martin Bagot & Elaine Blackburne Mon 7 October 2024 at 12:31 pm BST
A
new Covid-19 variant named XEC is sweeping through Britain and on track to
become the most dominant in the country within the week. This strain emerges
from the family of Omicron and carries a higher transmission rate, now
accounting for 21% of UK Covid cases, alarming health experts.
The
timing coincides with the Autumnal booster campaign's launch earlier this
month, targeting over-65s and other priority groups for vaccination as a
defensive measure. The NHS is bracing
for what some have termed a 'tripledemic', with influenza and respiratory
syncytial virus (RSV) also anticipated to present significant public health
challenges this season.
Such
concerns are amplified by the recent situation in Australia, where an influx of
hospitalisations due to these viruses during their winter typically serves as a
forecast for what the UK might face. Australian data expert Mike Honey says XEC
will account for more than half of new Covid infections in Britain by
Thursday, as
reported by the 'i'.
He
shared his insights via Twitter posting:
"For the UK, XEC is showing a strong growth advantage of 4.9% per day (34%
per week) over the DeFLuQE variants, which predicts a crossover in
mid-October."
Gisaid,
a global network of labs exchanging viral intelligence gathered from genetic
sequencing of samples, highlights a marked rise in XEC prevalence since late
August, when it accounted for just 5% of Covid contagions in the nation,
reports the
Mirror.
The
XEC variant, is believed to be a fusion of two previously identified Omicron
subvariants, KS. 1.1 and KP. 3.3. This is known as a "recombinant
variant" - which forms when two different variants infect a host
simultaneously, allowing the viruses to exchange genetic information.
This
dangerous double infection leads to the creation of a new variant with
characteristics from both "parent" lineages. KS. KS. 1.1 belongs to
the group commonly known as "FLiRT" variants, while KP. 3.3 is part
of the "FLuQE" variants.
Both
groups have been instrumental in recent global Covid surges. Symptoms are
similar to previous variants, including high temperature, aches, fatigue, cough
or sore throat.
Eric
Topol, Director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in California,
warned the LA Times that XEC is "just getting started". He said:
"And that's going to take many weeks, a couple of months, before it really
takes hold and starts to cause a wave. XEC is definitely taking charge. That
does appear to be the next variant."
The
UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) says it is normal for viruses to mutate and
change. UKHSA data show Covid infections rose by nearly a tenth up to 5.05
people per 100,000 of the population on September 28, compared to 4.66 a week
earlier.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene
foil stems battery thermal runaway
S. Himmelstein | October 07, 2024
The flammability hazard posed
by lithium-ion batteries can be doused with a graphene-based solution devised
by researchers from the U.K. and China.
These batteries can be
susceptible to thermal runaway, where excessive heat causes power device
failure and can result in fires or explosions. The risk of such occurrences can
be mitigated by use of the graphene current collectors engineered to dissipate
heat and block the exothermal reactions responsible for thermal runaway.
A continuous thermal pressing
process, which can be applied on a commercial scale, is used to fabricate
defect-free graphene foils with thermal conductivity of up to 1,400.8 W m/K, or
about 10 times greater than that offered by traditional copper and aluminum
current collectors produced for this application. The process can yield foils
in lengths of meters to kilometers, a feat demonstrated in the laboratory by
the design of a 17 μm-thick, 200 m-long graphene foil. This device described in Nature Chemical Engineering retained high electrical conductivity even
after being bent over 100,000 times, extending its utility for use in flexible
electronics and other advanced applications.
The safety record of
lithium-ion batteries can be enhanced by the manufacture of graphene foils with
customizable thicknesses with this technology advanced by researchers from
Wuhan University of Technology (China), Swansea University (Wales), University
of Warwick (U.K.) and Tsinghua University (China).
To contact the author of this article, email shimmelstein@globalspec.com
Graphene foil stems battery thermal runaway | GlobalSpec
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Wherever
Law ends, Tyranny begins.
John
Locke.
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