Baltic
Dry Index. 1417 -28 Brent Crude 74.54
Spot Gold 2728 US 2 Year Yield 4.07 unch.
If you increase the quantity of money, you bring about the lowering of the purchasing power of the monetary unit.
Ludwig von Mises.
In an unexpected miracle on Wall Street, Elon Musk’s Tesla saved the US stock casinos. Well, all except the DJIA.
CEO Elon Musk said on the call that his “best guess” is that “vehicle growth” will reach 20% to 30% next year, citing “lower cost vehicles” and the “advent of autonomy.” Analysts surveyed by FactSet were expecting delivery growth of about 15% for 2025.
“Best guessing” is an inexact science on Wall Street, ranking alongside economics to make astrology look accurate.
But who am I to rain on Musk’s “best guessing” bubble parade.
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly rise ahead of Japan elections; Tokyo inflation slows
Updated
Fri, Oct 25 2024 10:28 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly rose on Friday, with investors awaiting Japan’s general election
over the weekend.
Japan
also released its October inflation numbers for the capital city of Tokyo on
Friday, its last key economic data before the election. The Bank of Japan’s
monetary policy meeting is due on Oct. 30 and 31.
Tokyo’s
inflation is widely considered a leading indicator of nationwide trends.
The city’s headline inflation rate fell to 1.8% in October
from 2.2% the month before, with core inflation — which strips out prices of
fresh food — also coming in at 1.8%, down from 2%.
Economists
polled by Reuters had forecast the core inflation rate in Tokyo to slow to 1.7%
in October.
The
benchmark Nikkei 225 fell
0.85% after the inflation report, while the Topix was down 0.89%, on pace for a
fifth straight day of losses.
South
Korea’s Kospi gained
0.30%, but the the small-cap Kosdaq reversed gains to drop 0.85%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed
0.39%.
Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng index rebounded
0.65% after falling in the previous session, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was
up marginally.
Overnight
in the U.S., the S&P 500 bounced
back on Thursday, powered by shares of Tesla rising almost 22% and snapping a
three day losing streak.
The
electric vehicle manufacturer surged nearly 22% after posting third-quarter
results that beat analysts’ expectations, registering its best day
since 2013.
The Nasdaq Composite jumped
0.76%, but the Dow Jones
Industrial Average lost 0.33%, to record its first four-day losing
streak since June
Asia markets live: Tokyo CPI, Singapore manufacturing output
Stock
futures are little changed after S&P 500 snaps 3-day losing streak: Live
updates
Updated
Fri, Oct 25 2024 8:54 PM EDT
S&P 500 futures are
muted Thursday night after the broad index ended a three-day negative streak.
Futures
tied to the broad index added less than 0.1%, as did Nasdaq 100 futures. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose
just 3 points.
In
after-hours action, L3Harris shares
climbed more than 4% after the defense company exceeded Wall Street’s forecasts
when reporting third-quarter earnings. Dexcom tumbled more than 3%
despite beating expectations on both lines.
Those
moves follow a mixed day on Wall Street. The Nasdaq Composite joined
the S&P 500 in
finishing the session in the green, with both lifted by Tesla’s postearnings
rally. Shares of the electric vehicle manufacturer notched their best day
in more than a decade as investors cheered the firm’s stronger-than-expected
profit and CEO Elon Musk’s expectations for vehicle growth next year.
A slide in
Treasury yields also gave the S&P 500 and Nasdaq upward momentum, according
to Megan Horneman, chief investment officer at Verdence. The 10-year Treasury yield notably
cooled off from its three-month highs after breaking above the 4.25% mark
during Wednesday’s session.
“This
has everything to do with the decline we saw on interest rates today,” Horneman
said. “Those two indices don’t like higher yields.”
The
Dow lagged on Thursday, sliding just over 140 points due to declines in IBM and Boeing.
The
major indexes are tracking to finish the week with losses, which would snap
six-week win streaks for all three. The Dow has fared the worst with a drop of
more than 2% as of Thursday’s close, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have shed
0.9% and 0.4%, respectively.
Investors
will monitor earnings reports due Friday from names including Colgate-Palmolive, AutoNation and Newell Brands as the season
rolls on. They will also follow economic data releases on durable goods and
consumer sentiment.
Stock market today: Live updates
Tesla
stock soars 22% for best day in over a decade on Musk’s 2025 growth projection
Published
Thu, Oct 24 2024 11:59 AM EDT Updated Thu, Oct 24 2024 4:44 PM EDT
Tesla shares soared 22% to
close at $260.48 on Thursday, the stock’s best day since 2013, following
the company’s better-than-expected earnings
report.
The
company late Wednesday reported revenue of $25.18 billion, which came in just
under analysts’ expectations of $25.37 billion, but was up 8% compared with a
year earlier. Tesla reported earnings per share of 72 cents adjusted, topping
the average analyst estimate of 58 cents.
“We
expect this surprising earnings beat to power a strong positive reaction in
Tesla shares Thursday, given the degree to which investors have become
conditioned to earnings misses from the company,” analysts at JPMorgan wrote in
a note.
Tesla’s
profit margins in the third quarter were boosted by $739 million in revenue for
environmental regulatory credits, which the JPMorgan analysts noted were a
“potentially unsustainable driver” of earnings and cash flow.
Automakers
are required
to obtain a certain amount of regulatory credits every year, and if
they can’t meet the target, they can buy credits from other companies. Tesla
has excess credits because it only makes electric vehicles.
Tesla
earnings also got a boost from FSD, the company’s Full Self-Driving Supervised
system. CFO Vaibhav Taneja said on the earnings call that FSD contributed $326
million in revenue in the quarter after Tesla made it available for use in the
Cybertruck and added a feature called “Actually Smart Summon.”
CEO Elon Musk said on the call that
his “best guess” is that “vehicle growth” will reach 20% to 30% next year,
citing “lower cost vehicles” and the “advent of autonomy.” Analysts surveyed by
FactSet were expecting delivery growth of about 15% for 2025.
Even
bullish Deutsche Bank analysts doubted Musk’s forecast and wrote, in a note
following the earnings report, “Our view remains more reserved at 10-15%
(~2.03m),” and assumes Tesla can roll out a cheaper version of its Model Y at a
price under $30,000 after subsidies, and other variants of the small SUV.
Analysts
at Morgan Stanley who also recommend buying the stock, called Musk’s 2025
vehicle delivery growth prediction a “maybe.” They set their estimate at 14%.
It
“clearly depends on the company’s ability to improve affordability through
cheaper model (next gen) introduction, financing offers and improved features,”
the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note Thursday.
More
Tesla stock surges as analysts react to Q3 earnings, Musk predictions
In other news, a travel warning for Germany. Airlines quitting China.
Travel warning for Germany as first case of deadly
mpox strain detected
24 October 2024
A travel warning has been issued for
Germany after a highly infectious strain of a potentially deadly virus was
detected there for the first time. Travellers have been urged to "take
extra precautions" when visiting the country after a case of the clade Ib
variant of mpox was confirmed.
Germany's disease control centre, the
Robert Koch Institute (RKI), said the risk to the wider population was low but
it "is monitoring the situation very closely and adjusting its
recommendations if necessary". According to health bosses, the affected
person was infected abroad but no other details were given.
The outbreak of this strain is thought to
have started in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in Africa, where 5,399
cases and 25 deaths have been reported in the first nine months of 2024.
It has since spread to other parts of the
continent where the number of suspected cases of mpox this year now stands at
42,438, with 8,113 confirmed, according to the Africa Centres for Disease
Control and Prevention.
And at least 1,000 mpox deaths have been
reported in Africa, leading the World Health Organisation (WHO) to declare a
global health emergency for the second time in two years. Other cases of clade
Ib have also been reported in Sweden, Thailand and India.
In response to the confirmed case in
Germany, Travel Health Pro, urged travellers to take precautions. It
warned that it can be spread between people through:
- Direct
contact with rash, skin lesions or scabs (including during sexual contact,
kissing, cuddling or other skin-to-skin contact)
- Contact
with bodily fluids such as saliva, snot or mucus
- Contact
with clothing or linens (such as bedding or towels) or other objects and
surfaces used by someone with mpox.
It added: "It is possible that clade
I mpox may spread between people through close and prolonged face-to-face
contact such as talking, breathing, coughing, or sneezing close to one another.
However, there is currently limited evidence so this will be updated as new
information is available."
More
Travel warning for Germany as first case of deadly mpox strain detected
Major
airlines are cutting services to China or quitting entirely amid low travel
demand, high costs
Published
Thu, Oct 24 2024 11:15 PM EDT
Major
global airlines are reducing services and, in some instances, withdrawing from
China altogether as longer routes to Asia following the closure of Russian
airspace have raised operational costs, while demand has been low.
Virgin
Atlantic and Scandinavian Airlines, for instance, are completely withdrawing
from China, the companies’ websites show. Virgin Atlantic ceased
all flights to Hong Kong — and closed an office there — in 2022,
ending the airline’s 30-year presence in the Asian financial hub.
A report from travel news site Skift shows that seven
major airlines have retreated from the country in the past four months.
John
Grant, chief analyst at the aviation intelligence company OAG, said the
situation is “going to get more pronounced, before it gets any better.”
British
Airlines has steadily downgraded the size of jets it flies into China, said
Grant. Routes that were flying Boeing 747 jumbo jets, were replaced by B777s
and eventually even smaller B787s, he said. This is another way to scale back
capacity, yet it “retains the dot” on an airline route map, said Skift.
Following
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU and the United Kingdom, along with other
Western nations, imposed a
blanket flight ban on Russian aircraft. Russia responded in kind by closing
its airspace, forcing many European carriers to fly longer routes to reach
Asia.
Longer
flights require more fuel, which make flights more expensive. Chinese airlines,
however, are not subject to Russian airspace prohibitions, so they can fly the
same routes into Europe faster and cheaper than their European counterparts.
Additionally,
“airlines have had to operate with four-man flight crews because of the
extended hours when, in some cases, they could have used a two- or three-man
crew,” said Grant. “When flight crew are short and hours limited, that’s an
expense.”
Grant
said European carriers have found better uses for aircraft that were deployed
to China.
For
example, when British Airlines dropped its Beijing route, it reallocated the
planes to Cape Town, he said. “Load factors” — how full the plane is — jumped
from 55% on the Beijing route, to 90% on Cape Town services, he said.
More
China sees global airlines cut flights or quit totally amid weak demand
Finally, more US EV bad news. What does State Farm know that we don’t?
What’s
Behind State Farm’s Decision to Unplug EV Chargers Nationwide?
October
17, 2024
State Farm Insurance, a leading provider of insurance services, is taking a bold
step by removing electric vehicle (EV) charging stations from its parking decks
nationwide. This decision comes amid rising concerns about safety risks
associated with charging stations located within enclosed structures. The move
primarily affects State Farm’s facilities, including its Corporate Headquarters
and Corporate South locations in Bloomington, as well as other hubs across the
United States.
The
Safety Concerns
The
decision to eliminate EV charging stations from parking garages was made after thorough
consultations with workplace safety teams and fire departments. Recent
incidents, such as a fire involving several electric vehicles in a parking lot
near Rivian’s factory in Normal, have highlighted the potential risks involved.
- EV Fires Require Special
Attention: Electric vehicle fires are
notoriously difficult to extinguish, often requiring specialized training
and significantly more water compared to traditional vehicle fires.
- Firefighter Challenges: Firefighters facing EV fires must undergo additional
training to handle the unique challenges posed by these incidents,
including potential chemical hazards and the risk of re-ignition
Exploring Alternatives
In light of the
safety concerns, State Farm is exploring the possibility of relocating EV
charging stations to outdoor locations, away from parking garages. This move
aligns with the company’s commitment to ensuring a safe and secure environment
for its employees and visitors.
·
Potential for
Outdoor Solutions: State Farm is
considering multiple alternatives, including setting up charging facilities in
open-air environments to mitigate fire risks.
·
Future
Announcements: The insurer plans to
release further updates as these plans are finalized, keeping stakeholders
informed about new developments.
What’s Behind State Farm's Decision to Unplug EV
Chargers Nationwide? » Live Insurance News
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
The causes of all panics, crashes and depressions can be summed up in only four words: the misuse of credit.
Ludwig von Mises.
Well, if he says so, no recession, I suppose.
Schwarzman
Says US to Avoid Recession Regardless of Election
October
23, 2024
(Bloomberg)
-- Blackstone Inc. Chief Executive Officer Steve Schwarzman said the US is
likely to avoid a recession regardless of who wins the presidential election,
as both candidates have policy proposals that appeal to growth.
“I
don’t see a recession risk because the economy is pretty strong and both of the
candidates keep mentioning a lot of stimulative policies,” the billionaire
private equity chief said Wednesday in an interview in Tokyo. “But time will
tell as to what anybody actually will be able or want to do.”
The
upcoming US election, just two weeks away, is set to be one of the most
impactful events for global
markets and economies this year going into next. Schwarzman said in May that
he will raise money for Donald Trump’s campaign, reversing his earlier call for
a “new generation” of Republican leaders.
Policies
the candidates have put forth — like Trump’s proposed tariffs and Kamala
Harris’s bid to boost affordable housing — would be consequential for
businesses including Blackstone, the world’s largest alternative asset
manager.
Schwarzman,
77, said historically Democrats have taken a more “vigorous approach” to
regulation, and that could impact some buying and selling for the private
equity industry. Many policy proposals around the economy and taxes would be up
to Congress to enact and not the President, he added.
“I
think it’s impossible at this point to predict what either of them will
actually do,” he said. “Since they keep coming out with new announcements
almost every day to counter what the other one is doing.”
In
May, when Schwarzman said he was
supporting Trump, he cited his concern that US economic, immigration and
foreign policies were going in the “wrong direction.”
Schwarzman
said he sees an improving environment for making deals and exiting investments as
interest rates are likely to continue to fall in the US.
“It’s
really about interest rates and economic growth,” he said. “Interest rates will
continue to go down and that’ll provide an impetus of more transactions both on
the buy and the sell.”
Dealmaking
will likely continue to be robust in Japan, India and Australia — markets where
Blackstone have been active this past year, Schwarzman said. While Europe is
likely to see the lowest economic growth among developed nations, that could
still present opportunities, he added.
Last
week, Blackstone reported an increase in quarterly
earnings that
also showed credit edged out real estate as its biggest business by assets.
In
a separate interview, Gilles Dellaert,
Blackstone’s global head of credit and insurance, said the private credit
industry is still at the beginning of expansion. “We’re in the very early
days,” Dellaert said on Bloomberg Television.
More
Schwarzman Says US to Avoid Recession Regardless of Election
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
More big pharma vaccine hype again, but no mention of boosting vitamin D protection.
Covid,
flu and RSV symptoms and differences amid UK 'tripledemic' threat
The
NHS has listed the symptoms of covid, RSV and flu to help you tell the
difference between each one, as cases forecast to surge
13:31,
23 OCT 2024
With
the arrival of colder temperatures, concerns are growing that a 'tripledemic'
may be approaching. Health experts are urging Brits to expect a potential surge
in cases of covid, flu, and RSV.
It
is important to get vaccinated and know the differences between each illness
and its symptoms. Recent
data from UKHSA revealed
that during the last two winters, there have been at least 18,000 flu-related
deaths and more than 19,500 deaths linked to COVID-19 across the country.
Flu
season typically reaches its highest point in December and January. Beginning
adult vaccinations in October helps safeguard those most vulnerable during the
chilly months when people tend to congregate indoors, increasing the spread of
viruses.
Over
2.8 million individuals are eligible for the covid vaccine and 4.2 million for
the flu shot. The NHS says it is working to safeguard against a potential
'tripledemic' of viruses this winter.
Millions
of people can book their flu and covid vaccines now. Officials hope getting
vaccinated will ease pressure on the NHS ahead of the colder months.
Dr
Linda Charles-Ozuzu, Regional Director of Commissioning for NHS England, said:
"The winter vaccination programme offers vital protection to people who
need it most. It saves lives, but also it helps the NHS by reducing hospital
admissions and easing pressure on services that are already incredibly busy.
"People
with certain long term health conditions, pregnant women, young infants and
older people are among those eligible for some or all of these life saving
vaccines. If invited, please don’t delay – get the vaccines. And if you’re
unsure if you’re eligible or have any concerns please speak with your GP
surgery or local pharmacist."
Influenza
(flu), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and covid-19 share similar symptoms.
These can include fever, cough, and difficulty breathing.
Due
to these overlapping symptoms, it can be challenging to tell these respiratory
viral infections apart. To help identify a possible case, healthcare providers
might conduct a diagnostic test.
More
Covid, flu and RSV symptoms and differences amid UK 'tripledemic' threat - Gloucestershire Live
New
Vitamin D paper (Approx. 20 minutes.)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
EVs prove to
be a bumpy ride for battery metals
Thursday,
24 Oct 2024
ELECTRIC
vehicles (EVs) were supposed to supercharge demand for metals such as lithium,
nickel and cobalt.
Yet
prices for all three EV battery inputs have fallen to such bombed-out levels
that producers are curtailing output and deferring new projects.
This
is partly a problem of oversupply.
Explosive
price rallies in 2021 and 2022 resulted in too much new production capacity
being brought online too quickly.
But it
is also a problem of demand.
The
transition away from the internal combustion engine (ICE) has by no means
ground to a halt.
Global
new energy vehicle sales were up by 20% year-on-year in January-August,
according to consultancy Rho Motion.
Rather,
the mix of vehicles being sold and the evolution of battery chemistry have
dramatically changed the metals demand dynamic.
The
rise of hybrids
Pure
battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales have underperformed expectations due to
buyers’ concerns about limited driving range and charging infrastructure.
By
contrast, hybrid and plug-in hybrid cars (PHEV), which have both a battery and
ICE, have soared in popularity.
The
increase in global sales of BEVs slowed to 10% year-on-year in the first eight
months of 2024, while PHEVs jumped 46%, according to Rho Motion.
This
trend has been led by China, the world’s largest EV market.
The
key driver is the emergence of the extended range electric vehicle (EREV), a
type of PHEV that uses the petrol engine solely to charge the battery, giving
the vehicle an extended driving range of more than 1,000 km.
EREVs
now account for 31% of all plug-in hybrid sales in China, according to research
house Adamas Intelligence, which expects them to enjoy similar success in both
Europe and the United States.
Major
automakers are embracing hybrids in all forms as a relatively low-cost
transition technology between petrol and pure EVs.
Hybrids
don’t need the same battery power as a BEV. Adamas calculates that battery pack
capacity in a PHEV is a third of that in a BEV, which means a similar-sized
reduction in the amount of lithium, nickel and cobalt used per vehicle.
Other
metals, however, stand to benefit from the rise of the hybrids.
Platinum
and palladium, which are used to clean auto exhausts, have been granted an
unexpected new lease of life.
Changing
chemistry
While
the new energy vehicle mix is changing, so too is battery chemistry.
Lithium-iron-phosphate
batteries (LFP) have become the rising stars of the battery industry,
accounting for around 40% of battery demand in 2023, more than double the share
recorded in 2020, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
As
with the new extended range hybrids, the LFP revolution is being led by China,
where two-thirds of EV sales used this technology in 2023, the IEA estimates.
Chinese
battery makers have turned what was once regarded as a low-power technology
suitable only for short city commutes into a product that can compete with nickel-manganese-cobalt
battery chemistries.
China’s
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd (CATL) unveiled a new break-through LFP
battery at the Beijing auto show in April.
The
Shenxing Plus boasts a driving range of 1,000 km on a single charge,
effectively eliminating range anxiety.
More
EVs prove to be a
bumpy ride for battery metals | The Star
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and a weekend closer to next week’s UK tax raising budget and Labour’s war on UK pensioners. A weekend closer to the US
elections too. A weekend closer to Israel bombing Iran? What will 2025 bring?
Have a great weekend everyone.
There
is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit
expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the
result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a
final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.
Ludwig
von Mises.
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