London Irvine Report: Special Update 26/10/2024 An Interesting Week Ahead. Israel Bombs Iran.

Baltic Dry Index. 1410 -07 Brent Crude 76.05

Spot Gold 2748 U S 2 Year Yield 4.11 +0.04

Since the 1930s the technique of buying votes with the voters' own money has been expanded to an extent undreamed of by earlier politicians.

Milton Friedman.

The big news today is Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran for Iran’s retaliatory strike on Israel on October 1, for assassinating the Hamas political leader in Tehran in September.

Will Iran now feel the need to retaliate again? Develop nuclear weapons?

Will this “October surprise”, affect the upcoming US elections? The lamest of lame duck teams now drifts along in Washington DC. Did Israel just deliberately humiliate Blinken?

Will it impact oil prices? Gold? Both?

Will it drive more countries towards the surging BRICS alignment?

As I write it’s too early to know exactly what was hit and how much damage was caused, including casualties, but this should become clearer over the weekend.

Suspecting Israel might attack this weekend now that the BRICS summit in Russia had ended on Friday, I took the precaution of filling up the car yesterday rather than filling up on Saturday morning as usual. Hopefully an unnecessary precaution.

The drift to WW3, Nuclear War Two?

Israeli military launches strikes on military targets in Iran, officials say

Published Fri, Oct 25 2024 8:18 PM EDT

Israel launched airstrikes early Saturday on what it described as military targets in Iran in retaliation for a ballistic missile assault Oct. 1, officials said. There was no immediate information on damage in the Islamic Republic.

The attack, threatened for weeks by Israel, comes as the Middle East sits on the precipice of a regional war more than a year after an initial attack by the militant group Hamas on Israel. In the time since, Israel has launched a devastating ground offensive in the Gaza Strip and an invasion of neighboring Lebanon, targeting militants long armed and aided by Tehran.

Israel’s military described the attack Saturday as “precise strikes on military targets in Iran,” without immediately elaborating.

“The regime in Iran and its proxies in the region have been relentlessly attacking Israel since Oct. 7 ... including direct attacks from Iranian soil,” Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said in a prerecorded video statement. “Like every other sovereign country in the world, the State of Israel has the right and the duty to respond.”

In Tehran, the Iranian capital, the sound of explosions could be heard, with state-run media there initially acknowledging the blasts and saying some of the sounds came from air defense systems around the city.

A Tehran resident told The Associated Press that at least seven explosions could be heard, which rattled the surrounding area. The resident spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals.

International flights began diverting around western Iran as news of the strikes broke, flight-tracking data showed. But beyond a brief reference, Iranian state television offered no other details and even began showing what it described as live footage of men loading trucks at a vegetable market in Tehran in an attempt to downplay the assault.

Israeli military launches strikes on military targets in Iran, officials say

Nasdaq rises to hit new all-time high Friday as rest of market languishes: Live updates

Updated Fri, Oct 25 2024 4:30 PM EDT

The Nasdaq Composite climbed to an all-time high on Friday, boosted by megacap tech stocks.

The tech-heavy index rose 0.56% to 18,518.61, while the S&P 500 inched 0.03% lower to end at 5,808.12. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 259.96 points, or 0.61%, to close at 42,114.40.

Tech stocks boosted the market ahead of their upcoming earnings. Nvidia added 0.8%, and shares of Meta Platforms, Amazon and Microsoft were also higher. On the quarterly results front, HCA Healthcare lost nearly 9% after reporting hurricane disruptions hit its earnings and full-year guidance, while Colgate-Palmolive shares shed 4% after the company reduced the low end of its sales estimate for the year.

The 10-year Treasury yield notably cooled off from its three-month highs after breaking above the 4.25% mark during Wednesday’s session. On Friday, it rose more than three basis points to roughly 4.24%.

“Yields have risen meaningfully, and so I think that’s been an issue for the equity market,” said Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners. “On one hand, you got earnings that are decent, but then you end up with rate cuts, which should be positive.” However, the rates that matter right now are bond yields, he said. “That has caused a lot of uncertainty and you’re getting some just kind of digestion.”

These moves follow a mixed day on Wall Street. The Nasdaq joined the S&P 500 in finishing the session higher on Thursday, after both indexes were lifted by Tesla’s postearnings rally.

Both the S&P 500 and Dow snapped a six-week winning streak. The former was off nearly 1% on the week, while the latter ended the period lower by 2.7%. The Nasdaq notched its seventh weekly gain, advancing nearly 0.2%.

Stock market news for October 25, 2024

Take Five: Ready for an action-packed week?

By Reuters October 25, 202410:34 AM GMT+1

LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Traders will have their work cut out keeping up with Japan's snap election, U.S. jobs data, a UK budget, euro zone growth numbers and a slew of third-quarter earnings.

And as a U.S. presidential election nears, global market swings are getting bigger.

Here's all you need to know about the week ahead from Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Kevin Buckland in Tokyo and Naomi Rovnick, Amanda Cooper and Sinead Cruise in London.

1/ MEGACAPS, THEN JOBS

A full-on week of U.S. earnings is capped by Friday's key jobs data.

Five of the "Magnificent Seven" U.S. titans report quarterly results: Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O), opens new tab on Oct. 29, Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab and Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META.O), opens new tab on Oct. 30, and Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab and Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab on Oct. 31.

The companies have an outsized influence on markets because of their massive market values.

Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab, the first of the "Magnificent Seven" to report, said on Wednesday it expects to achieve slight growth in vehicle deliveries this year and reported a higher-than-expected third-quarter profit margin.

Economists meanwhile expect the U.S. economy created 140,000 new jobs in October, versus 254,000 in September.

Two significant storms could skew the data, which comes just ahead of the Nov. 5 U.S. election and a potential 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Nov. 7.

----2/ SNAP

When new Japanese premier Shigeru Ishiba called a snap election just weeks ago, he had expected to consolidate his party's hold on power.

But his Liberal Democratic Party could lose its absolute majority after Sunday's election and fall short of enough seats to govern when combined with coalition partner Komeito.

Japanese equities, hurt by uncertainty, are on the backfoot.

A disastrous loss could force Ishiba to fall on his sword, wresting the dubious mantle of shortest-serving prime minister from Sosuke Uno, who held office for under 10 weeks in 1989.

----3/ TRICK OR TREAT?

Britain's new Labour government unveils its first budget on Wednesday.

With few choices available to finance minister Rachel Reeves as she balances high debt, public spending pledges and a promise not to hike income tax, markets fear extra borrowing and tax grabs on capital gains, dividends and inherited wealth.

The 10-year gilt yield is about 18 bps higher this week, dragged up in part by rising U.S. Treasury yields, even after soft inflation fuelled hopes for UK rate cuts.

Gripped by budget uncertainty, UK stocks are underperforming again after a promising pre-election rally for these long-term laggards.

But bullish UK investors, a thinning crowd, reckon British markets could bounce if Reeves' Halloween-eve budget is less frightening than Labour's gloomy assessments of the economy suggested.

4/ EVEN SICKER MAN

The euro is witnessing one of its worst runs ever.

It has only posted four up-days in the last month, its weakest performance since May 2012, when a sovereign debt crisis threatened the survival of the currency bloc.

The prospect of U.S. rates not falling as quickly as anticipated has boosted the dollar, while expectations for Republican Donald Trump to win the November election are hitting the euro, given the risk of a sharp rise in U.S. tariffs on European goods.

The European Central Bank is expected to ramp up rate cuts as the currency bloc's economy sputters, especially in Germany. Europe's powerhouse is deteriorating faster than any other industrialised country and the coming week brings data on growth and inflation that are unlikely to offer much reassurance.

Take Five: Ready for an action-packed week? | Reuters

In EV news, sadly yet another EV crash and fatal fire. Imagine the carnage to come when nearly all vehicles on our roads are EVs.

Tesla’s fiery crash leaves four dead, woman seriously injured

Police responded to a call around 12:15 a.m. at Lake Shore Boulevard East and Cherry Street. One woman was pulled out of the burning car.

Oct. 24, 2024

On Thursday morning the burned out shell of a Tesla was all that remained at the scene of a fiery collision that took the lives of four people, and hospitalized one, near Toronto’s Portlands overnight.

The crash happened just after midnight on Lake Shore Boulevard East just west of Don Roadway. Police said the driver of the Tesla lost control of the vehicle while travelling at a high rate of speed and collided with a guard rail. The vehicle then struck a concrete pillar, they said, before bursting into flames.

Four people, all in their 20s or 30s, were killed in the crash.

A fifth, a 20-year-old woman, was rushed to hospital in serious condition. Police said that a passing motorist, believed to be a man, stopped to help pull the sole survivor from the burning car.

The names of the four dead have not been released, and police have not provided details on where the group was headed at the time of the collision. Investigators would also not confirm if the Tesla was a self-driving model.

Video captured immediately after the crash by construction worker Keith Barrow from across the channel showed a blazing fire and billows of smoke, with the lights of several emergency vehicles glowing in the night. Even across the stretch of water, the fire burned brightly, illuminating the underside of the Gardiner Expressway.

“We were on the opposite side of the river and we heard the tires squealing and we heard the impact,” Barrow, a foreman at QM Environmental, said. “So I drove over to DVP and Lake Shore and by that time, the flames were 20, maybe 30 feet high. It was scary to see.”

The foreman said about five other vehicles had pulled off to assist by the time he arrived. He did not see anyone extracted from the vehicle, he said, but those who stopped were trying to break the car’s windows.

----According to Toronto Fire Deputy Chief Jim Jessop, an “exponential” amount of water is required to extinguish an electric vehicle fire. Once the blaze had been put out, crews disposed of the car’s battery cell in a dumpster that was then filled with sand and transported to a dump yard.

Jessop also said Toronto Fire is working with industry experts and peers across North America on how to respond to calls for electric vehicle fires.

4 dead, one seriously injured in Tesla crash on Lake Shore

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

Fed’s Beige Book Shows Little Growth Across Most of US

October 24, 2024

(Bloomberg) -- Economic activity was flat in most parts of the US since early September, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts.

More than half of the US central bank’s 12 districts reported “slight or modest” growth in employment, while most districts said prices rose at a “slight or modest pace,” according to the report published Wednesday in Washington. Multiple districts also noted slowing wage growth.

“On balance, economic activity was little changed in nearly all districts since early September, though two districts reported modest growth,” the report said. “Reports on consumer spending were mixed, with some districts noting shifts in the composition of purchases, mostly toward less expensive alternatives.”

The report suggests the US economy continues to slow despite upside surprises in official statistics on employment, consumer prices and retail sales in September. Fed officials have recently cited such anecdotes as reasons to continue cutting interest rates despite the upturn in the latest numbers.

“The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book again presented a much softer picture of the US economy than hard data has,” Bloomberg economist Eliza Winger said in a note following the release. “We think the latest assessment of softer growth may ease market concerns the Fed may have to pause its rate cuts.”

In the Atlanta Fed’s district, which contains the areas of the country hit hardest by Hurricane Helene, the storm reportedly led to a decline in tourism, as well as “significant damage and losses” to farmers in south Georgia and parts of Florida.

The Beige Book also contained around 15 references to the November elections in the US as a source of uncertainty or a factor that was causing consumers and firms to delay investing, hiring and purchasing decisions.

Fed’s Beige Book Shows Little Growth Across Most of US

Financial Pressure Forces Auto Giant to Abandon Entire Factory Project

25 October 2024

German automotive supplier ZF has withdrawn from a planned $3 billion microchip manufacturing project in western Germany, originally slated for production with U.S. chipmaker Wolfspeed.

Impact German Strategy

The decision reflects ZF’s need to implement billions in cost-saving measures as demand for semiconductors falls short of projections, casting uncertainty on the future of the project.

ZF initially committed $185 million to the factory, which aimed to produce specialized chips for electric vehicles.

Announced in February 2023, the project included both a manufacturing plant and a research and development center in Saarland, Germany, according to Boosted.

If abandoned, the setback would impact Germany’s strategy to attract international tech investments and establish itself as a competitive business hub.

Industry sources report that Wolfspeed decided to pause the project, questioning its expected market entry value amid a sluggish European demand for microchips. ZF, addressing recent media reports, clarified that the delay originated with Wolfspeed, stating:

“Wolfspeed has overall responsibility for the project. ZF has always provided intensive support.” Neither Wolfspeed nor Germany’s Ministry of Economic Affairs commented further.

Needs $6.2 billion USD

Economic challenges have placed significant financial strain on ZF. To address cost pressures, the company announced plans to reduce its German workforce by 25% by 2028 and has lowered its earnings forecast.

ZF must secure savings totaling nearly $6.2 billion USD as it adjusts to slower-than-expected demand for electric vehicles and related components.

Wolfspeed previously delayed the project in 2022 due to financing issues, and now anticipates construction might begin in mid-2025 at the earliest.

For now, Wolfspeed has redirected its focus on expanding its New York factory, seeking to manage costs as the European and American markets for electric vehicles face sustained economic headwinds.

ZF and Wolfspeed’s struggle isn’t isolated; other semiconductor manufacturers, including Intel, have similarly delayed European factory plans, underscoring widespread challenges across the semiconductor industry.

Financial Pressure Forces Auto Giant to Abandon Entire Factory Project

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

This weekend, some surprising research from China that needs urgent follow up in the west. Approx. 15 minutes.

Ivermectin and Cancers

Ivermectin and Cancers - YouTube

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Airbus and Toshiba team up to create superconducting aircraft motor

By David Szondy October 23, 2024

Making a virtue out of necessity, Airbus is joining forces with Toshiba to develop a super-efficient superconducting motor for aircraft that uses the liquid hydrogen that supplies the electricity to cool the propulsion and adjacent systems.

Of all the options for making aircraft emissions-free that doesn't include just turning them all into gliders, hydrogen is the most promising because it combines a relatively high energy density with the ability to reduce emissions to little more than water. However, hydrogen takes up a lot of room for the available energy compared to aviation fuel, and the only practical way to handle it is as a cryogenic liquid cooled to below -253 °C (-423 °F).

In hydrogen-powered aircraft, The idea is that the hydrogen is fed into a fuel cell that generates electricity that either charges battery banks or drives an electric motor directly. However, there's still a weight problem because electric motors powerful enough to be practical for conventional-sized aircraft are very heavy, with a poor power-to-weight ratio.

To overcome this, both Airbus, through its Airbus UpNext subsidiary, and Toshiba, through its Toshiba Energy Systems & Solutions Corporation energy arm, have been looking at how to use the liquid hydrogen for the fuel cells to cool a cryogenic superconducting electric motor before going to the fuel cell.

When certain materials are cooled below a certain temperature, like that of liquid hydrogen, they become superconducting. In other words, the material's electrical resistance drops almost to zero and can hold an electrical current indefinitely. This allows for much more powerful and efficient magnets at the heart of CAT scanners, particle accelerators, some power transmission networks, and, wait for it, electric motors.

In fact, Airbus claims that a superconducting motor is over three times lighter than a conventional system and has a 97% powertrain efficiency rating. This makes for a lot more power coming out of a much smaller, lighter package – something obviously attractive for use on an aircraft.

Signed at Japan Aerospace 2024, the agreement between the two companies will combine the technology from Airbus's Cryoprop demonstrator project and Toshiba's half-century development of its 2-megawatt-class superconductivity motor prototype.

"Partnering with Toshiba presents a unique opportunity to push beyond the limitations of today’s partial superconducting and conventional electrical motors," said Grzegorz Ombach, Airbus Senior Vice President and Head of Disruptive R&T. "Through this collaboration, we aim to deliver a breakthrough technology that could unlock new design possibilities, in particular for Airbus' future hydrogen-powered aircraft. This partnership represents a natural and essential step in advancing superconducting motor technology to meet the needs of the aerospace industry."

Source: Airbus

Airbus and Toshiba team up to create superconducting aircraft motor

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

This weekend’s music diversion. Another long forgotten great. Approx. 14 minutes.

Baldassarre Galuppi (1706-1785) - Concerto per il Fagotto

Baldassarre Galuppi (1706-1785) - Concerto per il Fagotto - YouTube

This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 11 minutes.

Student and Master! || Praggnanandhaa vs Anand || WR ChessMasters Cup(2024)

Student and Master! || Praggnanandhaa vs Anand || WR ChessMasters Cup(2024) - YouTube

This weekend’s final technical diversion. The Hindenburg explained. Approx. 8 minutes.

What happened to the Hindenburg?