Saturday 19 October 2024

Special Update 19/10/2024 Black Monday 37 Years On. 1 Trillion In Interest.

Baltic Dry Index. 1576 -18          Brent Crude 74.06

Spot Gold 2721              U S 2 Year Yield 3.95 -0.01

Nobody with open eyes can any longer doubt that the danger to personal freedom comes chiefly from the left.

Friedrich August von Hayek.

37 years ago today, we remember how capitalism was transformed into banksterism by Black Monday, October 19, 1987. No Federal Reserve Chairman ever since has failed to bailout the stock market every time a crash looked underway.

Except with Uncle Scam now 35.715 trillion in unrepayable debt, the next stock market crash might be unrecoverable.

Not that anyone cares in today’s stock casinos. “Deficit? What deficit?”

All crises have involved debt that, in one fashion or another, has become dangerously out of scale in relation to the underlying means of payment.

John Kenneth Galbraith.

Dow, S&P 500 close at record highs and mark the year’s longest winning streak

Updated Fri, Oct 18 2024 5:08 PM EDT

Both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to new record highs Friday, sealing six straight weeks of gains.

The broad market benchmark advanced 0.40% to close at 5,864.67. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 36.86 points, or 0.09%, to end at 43,275.91. The Nasdaq Composite, led by a postearnings jump in Netflix, ended the day up 0.63% at 18,489.55.

The three major averages clinched their sixth straight positive week. This marked the longest string of weekly advances in 2024 for both the Dow and S&P 500, which respectively ended 0.96% and 0.85% higher. The Nasdaq climbed 0.80%.

Netflix climbed 11% on Friday after the streaming giant beat Wall Street’s earnings and revenue estimates in the third quarter, while reporting a 35% jump in ad-tier memberships from the prior three-month period. Procter & Gamble also reported better-than-expected earnings, while revenue fell short of estimates.

More than 70 S&P 500 companies have reported earnings this season. Of those, 75% have beaten expectations, according to FactSet.

Despite an expected increase in volatility in the market leading up to the election, stocks may actually continue to rally through November, according to Rob Williams, chief investment strategist at Sage Advisory. This would be atypical for an election year.

“Usually it’s the other way around — the market’s hesitant, and then it does well after the election. Now we’re getting the reverse of it and … Maybe you get the opposite of what we had — stocks will be strong into the election and then have some volatility fall on the election,” he said.

Williams attributed this outperformance to investors already pricing in a win from Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump, whose policies would be more business friendly in terms of taxes and regulations.

Stock market today: Oct. 17, 2024 (cnbc.com)

U.S. deficit tops $1.8 trillion in 2024 as interest on debt surpasses trillion-dollar mark

Published Fri, Oct 18 2024 4:00 PM EDT Updated Fri, Oct 18 2024 4:07 PM EDT

The Biden administration rang up a budget deficit topping $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024, up more than 8% from the previous year and the third highest on record, the Treasury Department said Friday.

Even with a modest surplus in September, the shortfall totaled $1.833 trillion, $138 billion higher than a year ago. The only years the U.S. has seen a great deficit were 2020 and 2021 when the government poured trillions into spending associated with the Covid-19 pandemic.

The deficit came despite record receipts of $4.9 trillion, which fell well short of outlays of $6.75 trillion.

Government debt has swelled to $35.7 trillion, an increase of $2.3 trillion from the end of fiscal 2023.

One aggravating factor for the debt and deficit picture has been high interest rates from the Federal Reserve’s series of hikes to fight inflation.

Interest expense for the year totaled $1.16 trillion, the first time that figure has topped the trillion-dollar level. Net of interest earned on the government’s investments, the total was a record $882 billion, the third-largest outlay in the budget, outstripping all other items except Social Security and health care.

The average interest rate on all the government debt was 3.32% for 2024, up from 2.97% the previous year, a Treasury official said.

The government did run a surplus in September of $64.3 billion, the product in part of calendar effects that pushed benefit payments into August, which saw a $380 billion deficit, the biggest month of the year.

As a share of the total U.S. economy, the deficit is running above 6%, unusual historically during an expansion and well above the 3.7% historical average over the past 50 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

The CBO expects deficits to continue to rise, hitting $2.8 trillion by 2034. On the debt side, the office expects it to rise from the current level near 100% of GDP to 122% in 2034.

U.S. deficit tops $1.8 trillion in 2024 (cnbc.com)

In other news.

Stellantis to shutter and sell large testing facility amid cost-cutting efforts

Published Fri, Oct 18 2024 11:30 AM EDT Updated Fri, Oct 18 2024 5:54 PM EDT

DETROIT — Automaker Stellantis plans to shutter and sell its large vehicle proving grounds in Arizona at the end of this year, CNBC has learned.

The decision is the latest cost-cutting measure by the trans-Atlantic automaker under CEO Carlos Tavares, who has been increasingly under pressure from Wall Street, dealers and the United Auto Workers union amid the company’s lagging financial performance, layoffs and overall business decisions.

The Arizona Proving Grounds covers 4,000 acres between Phoenix and Las Vegas in Yucca, Arizona. It has been used for vehicle testing and development for the automaker since then-Chrysler purchased the property for $35 million from Ford Motor in 2007.

The closure was confirmed by three people familiar with the plans who agreed to speak on the condition of anonymity because the matters are private.

Stellantis plans to use a proving grounds in Arizona owned by Toyota Motor beginning next year, according to two people familiar with the decision. Toyota opened its operations, which are costly to maintain, for other companies to use in 2021.

Stellantis confirmed the closure Friday morning, citing the company’s ongoing cost-cutting and real estate evaluations.

“Stellantis continues to look for opportunities to improve efficiency and optimize its footprint to ensure future competitiveness in today’s rapidly changing global market,” the company said in an emailed statement.

The automaker also said it is “working with the UAW to offer proving ground employees special packages or they can choose to follow their work in a transfer of operations” but that employees could be placed on an “indefinite layoff, which would entitle them to pay and benefits for two years.”

Stellantis said 41 employees currently work at the Arizona Proving Grounds, including 37 hourly workers represented by a local chapter of the UAW.

The UAW, which has been increasingly critical of Tavares and such layoffs, did not respond for comment on the planned closure.

---- Stellantis’ complex in Arizona was one of 18 facilities the company notified the UAW it could potentially close during the union’s contract negotiations last year with Stellantis.

A majority of the other operations were parts and distribution centers that were expected to be consolidated into “mega sites,” as well as the company’s massive 500-acre campus in metro Detroit formerly used as Chrysler’s world headquarters.

The status of the other properties was not immediately clear, however, local and state politicians, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, have expressed concerns that Stellantis could move to shutter the former headquarters in Auburn Hills, Michigan.

Stellantis has significantly reduced the number of its U.S. employees in recent years amid Tavares’ cost-cutting measures.

Stellantis has reduced employee head count by 15.5%, or roughly 47,500 employees, between December 2019 and the end of 2023, including a 14.5% reduction in North America, according to public filings. That doesn’t include further head count reductions and layoffs this year.

The automaker had only about 11,000 U.S. salaried employees at the end of last year. That compared with 53,000 at General Motors and 28,000 at Ford.

The reductions have occurred as Stellantis has attempted to outsource many engineering efforts to lower-cost countries such as Brazil, India and Mexico, according to several people familiar with the moves.

Bloomberg News earlier this year reported that Stellantis moved to recruiting a majority of its engineering workforce in those countries, where the cost per employee amounts to roughly €50,000 ($53,000) or less per year — far less than similar positions in the U.S. and Europe.

Stellantis to shutter and sell proving grounds amid cost-cutting (cnbc.com)

Finally, will a La Nina develop and if it does, is Europe in for a long cold winter, just as Labour’s extreme left wing socialists take the Winter Fuel Payment away from 10 million UK pensioners? 

Not to worry though, callous Labour figure, drop dead,  many if not most of them will be dead before the next general election in about 4.5 years time, and they’ll never get the chance to get even by voting hard left, Labour out. Welcome to modern cynical socialist GB. Just wait for a hard left President Harris! We haven't seen anything yet.

A La Niña event is likely coming to Europe: What does it mean for weather this winter?

17 October 2024

After mounting speculation that a La Niña event could occur this autumn, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Centre has confirmed there is a 60 per cent chance that it could develop - and last until March.

La Niña is part of a natural climate cycle, but like El Niño, it can cause extreme weather across the globe.

It occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean drop below average. Effectively, it’s the exact opposite of the warm El Niño phase.

Both La Niña and El Niño can have widespread impacts on global weather patterns, including those in Europe, although they can vary hugely the further away from the Pacific a place is.

The distance means that the impacts of the phases can be easily disrupted by local weather patterns, and that makes their exact effects in Europe difficult to anticipate. No two events are ever completely the same.

What impact could La Niña have on Europe’s winter this year?

Earlier this month, experts at the World Meteorological Organisation Predicted a high chance of La Niña conditions emerging between October and February.

Scientists say this winter will likely see a weak to moderate strength event, with the phenomenon possibly weakening early in 2025.

In general, La Niña brings colder than normal temperatures across western Europe. Forecasters are expecting that temperatures will drop on the continent as we head towards November and December.

It also tends to bring wetter and colder conditions to the Alps, which can lead to more frequent and heavier snowfall. With a lack of snow in numerous resorts forcing closures, La Niña could be a welcome event for some.

Elsewhere in Europe, there is usually less snow and northwest and southeast countries tend to be drier than usual, while southwest nations will likely see more rain.

Earlier in October, parts of western and central Europe were hit by the tail end of several storms coming off the Atlantic.

Now, France, the UK and Scandinavia are set to be the coldest regions from October, with temperatures likely to be lower this winter than they were last year.

More

A La Niña event is likely coming to Europe: What does it mean for weather this winter? (msn.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch. 

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

There are 2 things that could go wrong for the US economy and spark a recession, Morgan Stanley says

October 16, 2024

The US economy appears on track to keep growing, but there are two things that could spoil the no-recession forecast on Wall Street, according to Morgan Stanley.

In a recent podcast, the bank pointed to lingering risks looming over the economy, even amid resilient growth and robust hiring this year.

For one, layoffs could surge, and the threat of more tariffs after the presidential election remains high. According to Seth Carpenter, the bank's global chief economist, those two factors could put the US on a path to a hard landing.

Carpenter highlighted risks in the job market, with most companies having filled open positions after dealing with a shortage of workers during the pandemic. Total job openings in the US clocked in around 8 million in August — down 34% from their peak in March 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Should the economy slow for any reason — such as because of the cumulative impact of rate hikes since 2022 — employers are more likely than they were a year ago to lay off employees, Carpenter said.

"And that's usually what contributes to a recession. A slowdown, then people get laid off, laid off people spend less, the economy slows down more, and it snowballs," he added. "And so, if we do get a big slowdown for some reason, maybe there's more risk than there was, say, a year ago."

US companies have announced plans to cut 609,242 jobs from the start of the year through September, up 0.8% from job cuts announced in the same period last year, according to an analysis from Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Another weakness that could push the US into recession stems from possible tariffs after the presidential election, with Trump vowing to impose 10% tariff on nearly all imported goods, and a 60% tariff on imported Chinese goods.

Experts have said those measures are inflationary and could raise prices for consumers, potentially leading people to spend less and sparking a slowdown, Carpenter speculated.

Tariffs could also result in higher prices for goods that producers need in industries like manufacturing. That could lead companies to produce less or invest less in production, another thing that could influence a slowdown.

If Trump implements the 10% universal tariff and the 60% tariff on Chinese goods at the same time, that could cause inflation to tick up 0.9 percentage points, per Morgan Stanley's projections. Meanwhile, GDP could fall as much as 1.5 percentage points, the equivalent of third-quarter GDP growth being slashed in half.

More

There are 2 things that could go wrong for the US economy and spark a recession, Morgan Stanley says (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

XEC Covid variant symptoms may appear in an unusual order - six key signs to watch

The XEC Covid variant is incredibly fast spreading, and now that it's been detected in multiple countries, it's vital that everyone is aware of the symptoms to look out for - including the unusual order they might appear

6:44, 17 Oct 2024

People are being warned of an unusual order of Covid symptoms, with the XEC variant now the fastest spreading and detected in multiple countries.

In the UK, eligible people are being urged to get vaccinated against “winter threats”, including Covid . At the moment, the XEC variant makes up one in 10 Covid cases.

Dr Jamie Lopez Bernal, UKHSA consultant epidemiologist, said: “Covid-19 is continuing to circulate, with a slight increase in hospitalisations over the past two weeks.

“As winter approaches, we expect flu and RSV to increasingly circulate too, so if you’re eligible to get vaccinated against the three main winter threats – Covid-19, flu and RSV – now is the time to take them up and get winter strong.

“We understand people may be concerned about new variants. Our surveillance shows that where Covid cases are sequenced, around one in 10 are the ‘XEC’ lineage. Current information doesn’t suggest we should be more concerned about this variant, but we are monitoring this closely. The most important thing to do is to get your vaccination as soon as possible if you’re eligible.”

And a University of Southern California study has revealed the order in which Covid-19 symptoms typically emerge, potentially helping to separate the new Covid variant from other seasonal illnesses. The symptom order for the XEC variant is listed as fever first, followed by cough, sore throat, muscle pain or headache, then nausea or vomiting, ending with diarrhoea.

Dr Robert Glatter also pointed out a key difference with the flu, reported Healthline, saying: "Patients with seasonal flu more commonly developed a cough before the onset of fever." Understanding where you might be in the sequence of symptoms could help a medical professional. Dr Joseph Larsen, the lead study author, highlighted: "Knowing that each illness progresses differently means that doctors can identify sooner whether someone likely has COVID-19, or another illness, which can help them make better treatment decisions."

The new XEC Covid strain is in other ways similar to previous variants, being a mishmash of omicron subvariants. Dr Monica Gandhi, MD, MPH, a professor of medicine at the University of California, said: "The symptoms seem to be the same as with other recent subvariants of Omicron."

XEC Covid variant symptoms may appear in an unusual order - six key signs to watch - Mirror Online

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

The solid-state batteries hype is fading – prompting auto giants to consider alternatives

Published Wed, Oct 16 2024 1:13 AM EDT

  • Solid-state batteries have long been billed as the “holy grail” of sustainable driving. Proponents say they offer safer, cheaper and more powerful batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), as well as faster charging times.
  • There could be another option, however: semi-solid-state batteries, which use a hybrid design of solid electrolyte and liquid electrolyte.
  • “Five years ago, if we talked about this, I would have been so excited about solid-state batteries,” Transport & Environment’s Julia Poliscanova said. “But somehow ... there is some kind of barrier today.”

PARIS, France — The push to commercialize solid-state batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) is well underway, but analysts say auto giants could be on the cusp of turning to a different kind of transformative science.

Solid-state batteries have long been billed as the “holy grail” of sustainable driving. As the name suggests, solid-state batteries contain a solid electrolyte, made from materials such as ceramics. That makes them different from conventional lithium-ion batteries, which contain liquid electrolyte.

This next-generation technology theoretically packs more energy into each unit of volume than lithium-ion batteries. Proponents say it offers safer, cheaper and more powerful batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), as well as faster charging times.

Automakers have invested billions of dollars in solid-state battery research and teamed up with developers to produce their own versions for mass production.

---- Max Reid, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said solid-state batteries are at the start of a long journey toward commercialization.

“Obviously, the results are looking very promising — much safer, much greater energy density and particularly the charging speeds, which we think is probably one of the main benefits of solid-state,” Reid told CNBC via video call.

Yet, despite growing hype over the potential rollout of solid-state batteries, analysts remain skeptical about when they will actually make it to market.

Semi-solid-state batteries

One major drawback with solid-state batteries, Wood Mackenzie’s Reid said, is the swelling of the battery during charging and, ultimately, the degradation of the cell after extensive recharging.

---- There could be another option, however: semi-solid-state batteries. These cells use a hybrid design of solid electrolyte and liquid electrolyte — and some analysts say they could serve as a bridge between the two types of batteries.

Semi-solid batteries have already been commercialized “to quite a good extent” in China, Reid said, “and actually, my opinion is that, this is the compromise technology that actually will do away with the need of a full solid-state.”

“Given slower [EV] demand in the West and these issues with solid-state, you might see some negative announcements or not-so-positive announcements for full solid-state and actually a bit of a pivot to semi-solid once that’s realized to be a better transitional technology for what this decade needs,” Reid said.

The development of semi-solid-state batteries is primarily being led by Chinese companies, including CATL, one of the world’s biggest battery producers, and the likes of WeLion, Qingtao Energy and Ganfeng Lithium.

Chinese EV maker Nio has already commercialized 150-kilowatt hour semi-solid-state batteries for its EVs, with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers. Separately, Ganfeng LiEnergy, a subsidiary of Ganfeng Lithium, is producing semi-solid-state batteries for EVs with a range of 530 kilometers.

More

The race for next-gen EV batteries may soon pivot to semi-solid-state (cnbc.com)

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

This weekend’s music diversion. Another long forgotten great, again . Approx. 7 minutes.

Carlo Tessarini (c.1690-1766) - Overtura a quattro Stromenti

Carlo Tessarini (c.1690-1766) - Overtura a quattro Stromenti (youtube.com)

This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 11 minutes.

The Dream Setup || Rapport vs Maghsoodloo || Tech Mahindra Global Chess League (2024)

The Dream Setup || Rapport vs Maghsoodloo || Tech Mahindra Global Chess League (2024) (youtube.com)

This weekend’s final diversion. Krispy Kreme Donuts. Approx. 13 minutes.

How does a Donut Machine work? (Krispy Kreme)

How does a Donut Machine work? (Krispy Kreme) - YouTube

A party of economists were out mountain climbing in the Himalayas and they got lost. One of them took a look at the map and studied very carefully, compared it to distant landmarks and checked his compass. Finally, he said to the other economists, “Do you see that big mountain over there? According to the map, we’re standing on top of it.”

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