Baltic Dry Index. 1576 -18 Brent Crude 74.06
Spot
Gold 2721 U S 2 Year Yield 3.95 -0.01
Nobody with open eyes can any longer doubt that the danger to
personal freedom comes chiefly from the left.
Friedrich August von Hayek.
37
years ago today, we remember how capitalism was transformed into banksterism by
Black Monday, October 19, 1987. No Federal Reserve Chairman ever since has
failed to bailout the stock market every time a crash looked underway.
Except
with Uncle Scam now 35.715 trillion in unrepayable debt, the next stock market
crash might be unrecoverable.
Not
that anyone cares in today’s stock casinos. “Deficit? What deficit?”
All crises have involved debt that, in one fashion or another,
has become dangerously out of scale in relation to the underlying means of
payment.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
Dow,
S&P 500 close at record highs and mark the year’s longest winning streak
Updated
Fri, Oct 18 2024 5:08 PM EDT
Both
the S&P 500 and
the Dow Jones Industrial
Average surged to new record highs Friday, sealing six straight weeks
of gains.
The
broad market benchmark advanced 0.40% to close at 5,864.67. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained
36.86 points, or 0.09%, to end at 43,275.91. The Nasdaq Composite, led by a
postearnings jump in Netflix, ended the day up 0.63% at 18,489.55.
The
three major averages clinched their sixth straight positive week. This marked
the longest string of weekly advances in 2024 for both the Dow and S&P 500,
which respectively ended 0.96% and 0.85% higher. The Nasdaq climbed 0.80%.
Netflix climbed 11% on Friday
after the streaming giant beat
Wall Street’s earnings and revenue estimates in the third quarter,
while reporting a 35% jump in ad-tier memberships from the prior three-month
period. Procter & Gamble also
reported better-than-expected earnings, while revenue fell short of estimates.
More
than 70 S&P 500 companies have reported earnings this season. Of those, 75%
have beaten expectations, according to FactSet.
Despite
an expected increase in volatility in the market leading up to the election,
stocks may actually continue to rally through November, according to Rob
Williams, chief investment strategist at Sage Advisory. This would be atypical
for an election year.
“Usually
it’s the other way around — the market’s hesitant, and then it does well after
the election. Now we’re getting the reverse of it and … Maybe you get the
opposite of what we had — stocks will be strong into the election and then have
some volatility fall on the election,” he said.
Williams
attributed this outperformance to investors already pricing in a win from
Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump, whose policies would be
more business friendly in terms of taxes and regulations.
Stock
market today: Oct. 17, 2024 (cnbc.com)
U.S.
deficit tops $1.8 trillion in 2024 as interest on debt surpasses
trillion-dollar mark
Published
Fri, Oct 18 2024 4:00 PM EDT Updated Fri, Oct 18 2024 4:07 PM EDT
The
Biden administration rang up a budget deficit topping $1.8 trillion in fiscal
2024, up more than 8% from the previous year and the third highest on record,
the Treasury Department said Friday.
Even
with a modest surplus in September, the shortfall totaled $1.833 trillion, $138
billion higher than a year ago. The only years the U.S. has seen a great
deficit were 2020 and 2021 when the government poured trillions into spending
associated with the Covid-19 pandemic.
The
deficit came despite record receipts of $4.9 trillion, which fell well short of
outlays of $6.75 trillion.
Government
debt has swelled to $35.7 trillion, an increase of $2.3 trillion from the end
of fiscal 2023.
One
aggravating factor for the debt and deficit picture has been high interest
rates from the Federal Reserve’s series of hikes to fight inflation.
Interest
expense for the year totaled $1.16 trillion, the first time that figure has
topped the trillion-dollar level. Net of interest earned on the
government’s investments, the total was a record $882 billion, the
third-largest outlay in the budget, outstripping all other items except Social
Security and health care.
The
average interest rate on all the government debt was 3.32% for 2024, up from
2.97% the previous year, a Treasury official said.
The
government did run a surplus in September of $64.3 billion, the product in part
of calendar effects that pushed benefit payments into August, which saw a $380
billion deficit, the biggest month of the year.
As
a share of the total U.S. economy, the deficit is running above 6%, unusual
historically during an expansion and well above the 3.7% historical average
over the past 50 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
The CBO expects deficits
to continue to rise, hitting $2.8 trillion by 2034. On the debt side, the
office expects it to rise from the current level near 100% of GDP to 122% in
2034.
U.S.
deficit tops $1.8 trillion in 2024 (cnbc.com)
In
other news.
Stellantis
to shutter and sell large testing facility amid cost-cutting efforts
Published
Fri, Oct 18 2024 11:30 AM EDT Updated Fri, Oct 18 2024 5:54 PM EDT
DETROIT
— Automaker Stellantis plans
to shutter and sell its large vehicle proving grounds in Arizona at the end of
this year, CNBC has learned.
The
decision is the latest cost-cutting measure by the trans-Atlantic automaker
under CEO Carlos Tavares, who has been increasingly under pressure from Wall
Street, dealers
and the United Auto Workers union amid the company’s lagging financial
performance, layoffs and overall business decisions.
The
Arizona Proving Grounds covers 4,000 acres between Phoenix and Las Vegas in
Yucca, Arizona. It has been used for vehicle testing and development for the
automaker since then-Chrysler purchased the property for $35 million from Ford Motor in 2007.
The
closure was confirmed by three people familiar with the plans who agreed to
speak on the condition of anonymity because the matters are private.
Stellantis
plans to use a proving grounds in Arizona owned by Toyota Motor beginning next
year, according to two people familiar with the decision. Toyota opened its
operations, which are costly to maintain, for other companies to use in 2021.
Stellantis
confirmed the closure Friday morning, citing the company’s ongoing cost-cutting
and real estate evaluations.
“Stellantis
continues to look for opportunities to improve efficiency and optimize its
footprint to ensure future competitiveness in today’s rapidly changing global
market,” the company said in an emailed statement.
The
automaker also said it is “working with the UAW to offer proving ground
employees special packages or they can choose to follow their work in a
transfer of operations” but that employees could be placed on an “indefinite
layoff, which would entitle them to pay and benefits for two years.”
Stellantis
said 41 employees currently work at the Arizona Proving Grounds, including 37
hourly workers represented by a local chapter of the UAW.
The
UAW, which has been increasingly critical of Tavares and such layoffs, did not
respond for comment on the planned closure.
---- Stellantis’ complex in Arizona was one of
18 facilities the company notified the UAW it could potentially close
during the union’s contract negotiations last year with Stellantis.
A
majority of the other operations were parts and distribution centers that were
expected to be consolidated into “mega sites,” as well as the company’s massive
500-acre campus in metro Detroit formerly used
as Chrysler’s world headquarters.
The
status of the other properties was not immediately clear, however, local and
state politicians, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, have expressed concerns
that Stellantis could move to shutter the former headquarters in Auburn Hills,
Michigan.
Stellantis
has significantly reduced the number of its U.S. employees in recent years
amid Tavares’
cost-cutting measures.
Stellantis
has reduced employee head count by 15.5%, or roughly 47,500 employees, between
December 2019 and the end of 2023, including a 14.5% reduction in North
America, according to public filings. That doesn’t include further head count
reductions and layoffs this year.
The
automaker had only about 11,000 U.S. salaried employees at the end of last
year. That compared with 53,000 at General Motors and 28,000 at
Ford.
The
reductions have occurred as Stellantis has attempted to outsource many
engineering efforts to lower-cost countries such as Brazil, India and Mexico,
according to several people familiar with the moves.
Bloomberg
News earlier this year reported that Stellantis moved to
recruiting a majority of its engineering workforce in those countries, where
the cost per employee amounts to roughly €50,000 ($53,000) or less per year —
far less than similar positions in the U.S. and Europe.
Stellantis
to shutter and sell proving grounds amid cost-cutting (cnbc.com)
Finally,
will a La Nina develop and if it does, is Europe in for a long cold winter,
just as Labour’s extreme left wing socialists take the Winter Fuel Payment away
from 10 million UK pensioners?
Not to worry though, callous Labour figure, drop dead, many if not most of them will be dead before the next general election in about 4.5 years time, and they’ll never get the chance to get even by voting hard left, Labour out. Welcome to modern cynical socialist GB. Just wait for a hard left President Harris! We haven't seen anything yet.
A
La Niña event is likely coming to Europe: What does it mean for weather this
winter?
17
October 2024
After
mounting speculation that a La Niña event could occur this autumn, the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Centre has
confirmed there is a 60 per cent chance that it could develop - and last until
March.
La
Niña is part of a natural climate cycle, but like El Niño, it can cause extreme
weather across the globe.
It
occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean
drop below average. Effectively, it’s the exact opposite of the warm El Niño
phase.
Both
La Niña and El Niño can have widespread impacts on global weather patterns,
including those in Europe, although they can vary hugely the further away from
the Pacific a place is.
The
distance means that the impacts of the phases can be easily disrupted by local
weather patterns, and that makes their exact effects in Europe difficult to
anticipate. No two events are ever completely the same.
What
impact could La Niña have on Europe’s winter this year?
Earlier
this month, experts at the World Meteorological Organisation Predicted a high
chance of La Niña conditions emerging between October and February.
Scientists
say this winter will likely see a weak to moderate strength event, with the
phenomenon possibly weakening early in 2025.
In
general, La Niña brings colder than normal temperatures across western Europe.
Forecasters are expecting that temperatures will drop on the continent as we
head towards November and December.
It
also tends to bring wetter and colder conditions to the Alps, which can lead to
more frequent and heavier snowfall. With a lack of snow in numerous resorts
forcing closures, La Niña could be a welcome event for some.
Elsewhere
in Europe, there is usually less snow and northwest and southeast countries
tend to be drier than usual, while southwest nations will likely see more rain.
Earlier
in October, parts of western and central Europe were hit by the tail end of
several storms coming off the Atlantic.
Now,
France, the UK and Scandinavia are set to be the coldest regions from October,
with temperatures likely to be lower this winter than they were last year.
More
A La Niña event is
likely coming to Europe: What does it mean for weather this winter? (msn.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
There are 2 things that could go wrong for
the US economy and spark a recession, Morgan Stanley says
October 16, 2024
The US economy
appears on track to keep growing, but there are two things that could spoil the
no-recession forecast on Wall Street, according to Morgan Stanley.
In a
recent podcast, the bank
pointed to lingering risks looming over the economy, even amid resilient growth and
robust hiring this year.
For one, layoffs
could surge, and the threat of more tariffs after the presidential election
remains high. According to Seth Carpenter, the bank's global chief economist,
those two factors could put the US on a path to a hard landing.
Carpenter
highlighted risks in the job market, with most companies having filled open
positions after dealing with a shortage of workers during the pandemic. Total job openings in the US clocked in around 8 million in
August — down 34% from their peak in March 2022, according to the Bureau of
Labor Statistics.
Should the
economy slow for any reason — such as because of the cumulative impact of rate
hikes since 2022 — employers are more likely than they were a year ago to lay off employees,
Carpenter said.
"And that's
usually what contributes to a recession. A slowdown, then people get laid off,
laid off people spend less, the economy slows down more, and it
snowballs," he added. "And so, if we do get a big slowdown for some
reason, maybe there's more risk than there was, say, a year ago."
US companies
have announced plans to cut 609,242 jobs from the start of the year through September, up 0.8% from job cuts
announced in the same period last year, according to an analysis from
Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Another weakness
that could push the US into recession stems from possible tariffs after the
presidential election, with Trump vowing to impose 10% tariff on nearly all
imported goods, and a 60% tariff on imported Chinese goods.
Experts have
said those measures are inflationary and could raise prices for consumers, potentially leading people to spend less and sparking a slowdown,
Carpenter speculated.
Tariffs could
also result in higher prices for goods that producers need in industries like
manufacturing. That could lead companies to produce less or invest less in
production, another thing that could influence a slowdown.
If Trump
implements the 10% universal tariff and the 60% tariff on Chinese goods at the
same time, that could cause inflation to tick up 0.9 percentage points, per
Morgan Stanley's projections. Meanwhile, GDP could fall as much as 1.5
percentage points, the equivalent of third-quarter GDP growth being
slashed in half.
More
Covid-19
Corner
This section will
continue until it becomes unneeded.
XEC Covid variant symptoms may appear in an unusual
order - six key signs to watch
The XEC Covid variant is incredibly fast spreading,
and now that it's been detected in multiple countries, it's vital that everyone
is aware of the symptoms to look out for - including the unusual order they
might appear
6:44, 17 Oct 2024
People are being warned
of an unusual order of Covid symptoms, with the XEC variant now the fastest spreading and detected in
multiple countries.
In the UK, eligible
people are being urged to get vaccinated against “winter threats”, including
Covid . At the moment, the XEC variant makes up one in 10 Covid cases.
Dr Jamie Lopez Bernal,
UKHSA consultant epidemiologist, said: “Covid-19 is continuing to circulate,
with a slight increase in hospitalisations over the past two weeks.
“As winter approaches, we
expect flu and RSV to increasingly circulate too, so if you’re eligible to get
vaccinated against the three main winter threats – Covid-19, flu and RSV – now
is the time to take them up and get winter strong.
“We understand people may
be concerned about new variants. Our surveillance shows that where Covid cases
are sequenced, around one in 10 are the ‘XEC’ lineage. Current information doesn’t suggest we
should be more concerned about this variant, but we are monitoring this
closely. The most important thing to do is to get your vaccination as soon as
possible if you’re eligible.”
And a University of
Southern California study has revealed the order in which Covid-19 symptoms
typically emerge, potentially helping to separate the new Covid variant from
other seasonal illnesses. The symptom order for the XEC variant is listed as
fever first, followed by cough, sore throat,
muscle pain or headache, then nausea or vomiting, ending with diarrhoea.
Dr Robert Glatter also
pointed out a key difference with the flu, reported Healthline, saying: "Patients with seasonal flu more
commonly developed a cough before the onset of fever." Understanding where
you might be in the sequence of symptoms could help a medical professional. Dr
Joseph Larsen, the lead study author, highlighted: "Knowing that each
illness progresses differently means that doctors can identify sooner whether
someone likely has COVID-19, or another illness, which can help them make
better treatment decisions."
The new XEC Covid strain
is in other ways similar to previous variants, being a mishmash of omicron subvariants. Dr
Monica Gandhi, MD, MPH, a professor of medicine at the University of
California, said: "The symptoms seem to be the same as with other recent
subvariants of Omicron."
XEC Covid variant symptoms may appear in an
unusual order - six key signs to watch - Mirror Online
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
The solid-state batteries hype is fading – prompting auto giants
to consider alternatives
Published Wed, Oct 16 2024 1:13 AM EDT
- Solid-state batteries have long been billed as the “holy grail” of sustainable
driving. Proponents say they offer safer, cheaper and more powerful
batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), as well as faster charging times.
- There could be another option, however: semi-solid-state batteries,
which use a hybrid design of solid electrolyte and liquid electrolyte.
- “Five years ago, if we talked about this, I would have been so
excited about solid-state batteries,” Transport & Environment’s Julia
Poliscanova said. “But somehow ... there is some kind of barrier today.”
PARIS, France — The push to commercialize
solid-state batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) is well underway, but
analysts say auto giants could be on the cusp of turning to a different kind of
transformative science.
Solid-state batteries have long been billed as the
“holy grail” of sustainable driving. As the name suggests, solid-state
batteries contain a solid electrolyte, made from materials such as ceramics.
That makes them different from conventional lithium-ion batteries, which
contain liquid electrolyte.
This next-generation technology theoretically
packs more energy into each unit of volume than lithium-ion batteries.
Proponents say it offers safer, cheaper and more powerful batteries for
electric vehicles (EVs), as well as faster charging times.
Automakers have invested billions of dollars in
solid-state battery research and teamed up with developers to produce their own
versions for mass production.
---- Max Reid, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said
solid-state batteries are at the start of a long journey toward
commercialization.
“Obviously, the results are looking very
promising — much safer, much greater energy density and particularly the
charging speeds, which we think is probably one of the main benefits of
solid-state,” Reid told CNBC via video call.
Yet, despite growing hype over the
potential rollout of solid-state batteries, analysts remain skeptical about
when they will actually make it to market.
Semi-solid-state batteries
One major drawback with solid-state
batteries, Wood Mackenzie’s Reid said, is the swelling of the battery during
charging and, ultimately, the degradation of the cell after extensive
recharging.
---- There could be another option, however:
semi-solid-state batteries. These cells use a hybrid design of solid
electrolyte and liquid electrolyte — and some analysts say they could serve as
a bridge between the two types of batteries.
Semi-solid batteries have already been
commercialized “to quite a good extent” in China, Reid said, “and actually, my
opinion is that, this is the compromise technology that actually will do away
with the need of a full solid-state.”
“Given slower [EV] demand in the West and
these issues with solid-state, you might see some negative announcements or
not-so-positive announcements for full solid-state and actually a bit of a
pivot to semi-solid once that’s realized to be a better transitional technology
for what this decade needs,” Reid said.
The development of semi-solid-state
batteries is primarily being led by Chinese companies, including CATL, one of the world’s biggest battery producers, and
the likes of WeLion, Qingtao Energy and Ganfeng Lithium.
Chinese EV maker Nio has already commercialized 150-kilowatt hour
semi-solid-state batteries for its EVs, with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers.
Separately, Ganfeng LiEnergy, a subsidiary of Ganfeng Lithium, is producing
semi-solid-state batteries for EVs with a range of 530 kilometers.
More
The race for next-gen EV batteries may soon pivot to semi-solid-state
(cnbc.com)
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Another long forgotten great, again . Approx. 7 minutes.
Carlo
Tessarini (c.1690-1766) - Overtura a quattro Stromenti
Carlo Tessarini
(c.1690-1766) - Overtura a quattro Stromenti (youtube.com)
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 11 minutes.
The
Dream Setup || Rapport vs Maghsoodloo || Tech Mahindra Global Chess League
(2024)
The Dream Setup ||
Rapport vs Maghsoodloo || Tech Mahindra Global Chess League (2024)
(youtube.com)
This
weekend’s final diversion. Krispy Kreme Donuts. Approx. 13 minutes.
How
does a Donut Machine work? (Krispy Kreme)
How does a Donut
Machine work? (Krispy Kreme) - YouTube
A party of economists were out mountain climbing in the
Himalayas and they got lost. One of them took a look at the map and studied
very carefully, compared it to distant landmarks and checked his compass.
Finally, he said to the other economists, “Do you see that big mountain over
there? According to the map, we’re standing on top of it.”
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