Monday, 14 October 2024

China To The Rescue? Israel v Iran This Week? China v Taiwan?

Baltic Dry Index. 1809 +19          Brent Crude  78.10

Spot Gold 2659                US 2 Year Yield 3.95 -0.03

The state is the great fictitious entity by which everyone seeks to live at the expense of everyone else.

Frederic Bastiat.

In the stock casinos, China’s economic rescue plan seems to be underwhelming as announced so far. 

In regional war and potential regional war news, we are spoiled for choice as we start the new week.

In the USA, more hurricane clear up and damage assessment. More extreme rhetoric in the final three weeks of the US election campaign. Was a third Trump assassination attempt just thwarted in California?

In Europe, more disruptive rains as Germany’s Pied Piper economy leads the EU’s children economies into recession. Will the ECB cut rates on Thursday?

China stocks volatile as investors assess Beijing’s weekend stimulus pledges

Updated Mon, Oct 14 2024 12:04 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Monday, as investors assessed China’s weekend press briefing and awaited a slew of economic data this week from the region.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 1.5% in choppy trading, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.7%.

Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index gained about 1%, while Hang Seng Tech index dropped 2.45%.

China’s Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an in a highly anticipated press briefing on Saturday hinted at more debt issuance amid efforts to shore up the economy, stating the government had a “rather large” space to increase deficit.

China’s deflation worries deepened in September with consumer prices rising at their slowest pace in three months at 0.4% from a year earlier, while the producer price index fell at the fastest pace in six months, down 2.8%. Both metrics missed expectations of economists polled by Reuters, who estimated CPI to rise 0.6% and PPI to decline 2.5%.

China is set to release its trade data for September on Monday, with exports expected to rise 6%, a slower growth than 8.7% in August, while imports are estimated to grow 0.9%, compared to 0.5% in August.

China watchers also look ahead to the week with a busy set of economic data, including China’s third-quarter GDP, September industrial output growth, retail sales and unemployment rate.

Japan’s market was closed for a holiday.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.55%.

South Korea’s blue chip Kospi gained 1% while the small-cap Kosdaq index fell 0.5%.

Stateside, stock futures were little changed in overnight trading Sunday as investors waited to assess an upcoming batch of key corporate earnings.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded near the flatline. The S&P 500 index futures were flat, while Nasdaq-100 futures dipped 0.1%.

Asia markets live updates: MOF press conference; China CPI, PPI; China trade data (cnbc.com)

Hurricane Milton: Biden tours Florida's storm-hit streets as debris piles up

By Trevor Hunnicutt and Susan Heavey  October 13, 202411:14 PM GMT+1

ST PETE BEACH, Florida/WASHINGTON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - After surveying battered communities and debris-filled streets in Florida, President Joe Biden vowed on Sunday to continue supporting the state's recovery from Hurricane Milton, the second major storm to pummel the region in recent weeks.

Rising floodwaters, fuel shortages and power outages are hindering cleanup efforts after Milton, which made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane. The devastation was compounded by the earlier Hurricane Helene. Recovery is expected to take a long time with the two storms hitting within two weeks of each other.

Residents of hard-hit St. Pete Beach are "heartbroken and exhausted and their expenses are piling up,” Biden said after touring the barrier island.

A photo album, mattresses, siding, couches and busted kitchen cabinets were scattered on roads, some still covered in large patches of sand, as Biden walked through with emergency responders. The smell of mold hung in the air.

“Help,” one resident had scrawled across a pile of destroyed household remnants.

"I know you're concerned about the debris removal, and it's obvious why," the president said, speaking in front of a beach house toppled from its foundation. "There's much more to do. We're doing everything we can."

Meanwhile, flooding is expected to continue around the Tampa Bay and the Sanford area northeast of Orlando, according to the National Weather Service.

"Rivers are continuing to rise," Florida Division of Emergency Management Executive Director Kevin Guthrie told reporters at a separate news conference with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, adding that some residents should prepare to evacuate as needed.

About 75% of Florida's power is back online, with full restoration expected by Tuesday evening, said Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, who traveled with Biden. Five days after the storm hit, about 818,000 customers remained without power, DeSantis said.

About one-third of Florida's gas stations did not have fuel, including nearly 88% of those around Tampa, GasBuddy.com analyst Patrick De Haan said on X. Six more fuel distribution sites were scheduled to open on Sunday, according to the state's emergency operations center.

More

Hurricane Milton: Biden tours Florida's storm-hit streets as debris piles up | Reuters

Next, more on China’s economic rescue plan.

China's deflationary pressures build in Sept, consumer inflation cools

13 October 2024

BEIJING (Reuters) -China's consumer inflation unexpectedly eased in September, while producer price deflation deepened, heightening pressure on Beijing to roll out more stimulus measures quickly to revive flagging demand and shaky economic activity.

Finance Minister Lan Foan told a news conference on Saturday there will be more "counter-cyclical measures" this year, but officials did not provide details on the size or timing of fiscal stimulus being prepared, which investors hope will ease deflationary pressures in the world's second-largest economy.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% from a year earlier last month, the slowest in three months, against a 0.6% rise in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Sunday, missing a 0.6% increase forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

The producer price index (PPI) fell at the fastest pace in six months, down 2.8% year-on-year in September, versus a 1.8% decline the previous month and below an expected 2.5% decline.

"China faces persistent deflationary pressure due to weak domestic demand. The change of fiscal policy stance as indicated by the press conference yesterday (Saturday) would help to deal with such problems," said Zhiwei Zhang, Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

Chinese authorities have stepped up stimulus efforts in recent weeks to spur demand and help meet an around 5.0% economic growth target for this year, though some analysts say the moves may only offer temporary relief and stronger measures are needed soon or the weakness could extend well into next year.

The central bank in late September announced the most aggressive monetary support measures since the COVID-19 pandemic, including numerous steps to help pull the property sector out of a severe, multi-year slump, including mortgage rate cuts.

Analysts and investors are now hoping that a meeting of China's parliament expected in coming weeks will unveil more specific proposals.

"The size of the fiscal stimulus matters. Decisive action is required before deflationary expectations become further entrenched," said Pinpoint's Zhang.

However, many China watchers say Beijing also needs to firmly address more deeply-rooted structural issues such as industrial overcapacity and sluggish consumption.

Excessive domestic investment and weak demand have pushed down prices and forced companies to reduce wages or fire workers to cut costs, further dampening consumer confidence.

More

China's deflationary pressures build in Sept, consumer inflation cools (msn.com)

China’s plan to boost flagging growth is the very definition of economic insanity

13 October 2024

China’s leaders seem to have invoked the definition of insanity, attributed, perhaps wrongly, to Einstein: doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting different results.

For the fourth time in 16 years, Beijing has been spooked by faltering growth into adopting an array of economic stimulus measures designed to reset the economy. It didn’t work for long in 2008, 2015 or 2021, and the “bazooka” measures announced recently will also most likely come up short.

These programmes have failed in the past because the government’s focus is mainly on the cyclical – or short-term – outlook. It thinks quick palliatives are the answer to systemic problems such as high youth unemployment, the real estate bust, weak productivity and deflation. China’s problems, however, require structural – or root and branch – economic reforms, which necessitate political changes that are anathema to its Leninist government.

The government has certainly managed to set the stock market alight, and it hopes that renewed confidence will spill over into consumer spending. After a relentless decline of about 40% since early 2021, the late September package of stock market support, monetary easing and housing measures triggered a roughly 30% rise in equity values in the week before the recent Golden Week holiday.

The centrepiece was 800bn yuan (£86bn) worth of financing facilities allowing listed firms to buy back their own shares, and non-bank financial firms to buy equities. The authorities lowered interest rates on market instruments and mortgages, banks’ reserve requirements, and the minimum downpayment on second homes. They increased the subsidy to state enterprises to buy unfinished homes, which loom heavily over the real estate market. The stock of unsold homes, disproportionately situated in smaller towns and cities, is estimated to amount to about three to four years of sales at current rates.

Stock market sentiment has cooled since. While direct equity market intervention and easier monetary conditions bring relief, they do little to address deep-seated economic flaws. Most of the measures announced were either extensions or variants of pre-existing policies that haven’t had great traction. China is in a so-called liquidity trap, where cutting interest rates is not really effective. It is quite likely that stock market gains will dissipate unless the authorities act to improve the sustainability of the economic growth, and company earnings.

More

China’s plan to boost flagging growth is the very definition of economic insanity (msn.com)

Finally, is Israel about to attack Iran this week? Yom Kippur began at the sundown October 11.

U.S. officials say Israel has narrowed down its targets for strike on Iran

Published Sun, Oct 13 2024 6:40 AM EDT

U.S. officials believe Israel has narrowed down what they will target in their response to Iran’s attack, which these officials describe as Iranian military and energy infrastructure.

There is no indication that Israel will target nuclear facilities or carry out assassinations, but U.S. officials stressed that the Israelis have not made a final decision about how and when to act.

The region has been on edge awaiting Isreal’s response to an Iranian missile barrage launched on Oct. 1, which Iran said was in response to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon and the assasination of its allies, including Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and Hezbollah’s powerful leader, Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.

Iran’s attack caused little damage in Israel.

The U.S. does not know when Israel’s response could come but officials said the Israeli military is poised and ready to go at any time once the order is given.

U.S. officials stressed that they have no information to indicate the response will come today but admitted that Israel has not shared a specific timeline with them — and it is not clear Israeli officials have even agreed on one yet.

U.S. and Israeli officials said a response could come during the Yom Kippur holiday. 

U.S. officials say Israel has narrowed down its targets for strike on Iran (cnbc.com)

The state tends to expand in proportion to its means of existence and to live beyond its means, and these are, in the last analysis, nothing but the substance of the people. Woe to the people that cannot limit the sphere of action of the state! Freedom, private enterprise, wealth, happiness, independence, personal dignity, all vanish.

Frederic Bastiat.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

US annual PPI inflation edges lower to 1.8% in September vs. 1.6% expected

10/11/2024 12:33:50 GMT | By Eren Sengezer

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand in the US rose 1.8% on a yearly basis in September, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed the 1.9% increase recorded in August and came in above the market expectation of 1.6%.

The annual core PPI rose 2.8% in the same period, surpassing analysts' estimate of 2.7%. On a monthly basis, the PPI was unchanged, while the core PPI was up 0.2%

Market reaction

The US Dollar Index showed no reaction to these data and was last seen moving sideways slightly below 103.00.

US annual PPI inflation edges lower to 1.8% in September vs. 1.6% expected (fxstreet.com)

Gold extends gains over 1% as US PPI data solidifies rate cut hopes

By Anushree Ashish Mukherjee  October 11, 20247:09 PM GMT+1

Oct 11 (Reuters) - Gold rose over 1% on Friday after a U.S. inflation data cemented prospects of a rate cut next month, restraining the dollar below recent highs, while safe-haven demand stemming from the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also lifted the bullion.

Spot gold rose 1.1% to $2,658.42 per ounce by 1:42 p.m. ET (1742 GMT), up for the second straight session, and U.S. gold futures settled 1.4% higher at $2676.30.

"The economy is still relatively strong, and the Fed is still in a paradox where they're looking at cutting rates because some sectors have slowed down significantly, like housing," said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

U.S. producer prices were unchanged in September, pointing to a still-favorable inflation outlook and supporting expectations of Fed rate cut next month.

"The PPI numbers leaned friendly for the precious metals market bulls and suggest the Fed remains on track for two quarter-point interest rate cuts this year," Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco Metals, said.

This follows data on Thursday showing U.S. consumer prices rose slightly more than expected last month, but the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 3-1/2 years.

"Gold is expected to reach $3,000 by 2025 due to geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and election uncertainties," Pavilonis added.

The dollar held below a two-month high against a basket of peers on Friday.

On physical front, gold dealers in India charged premiums for the first time in two months this week as the upcoming festival season attracted some jewellery buying.

"Gold ETF holdings rose by almost 95 tons in the third quarter. This means that ETFs are making a positive contribution to gold demand again for the first time in ten quarters," Commerzbank said in a note.

Spot silver rose 1.1% to $31.54 per ounce and platinum climbed 1.9% to $986.15. Both metals were headed for weekly declines.

Palladium fell 0.5% to $1,063.55, but was up nearly 5% for the week.

Gold extends gains over 1% as US PPI data solidifies rate cut hopes | Reuters

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Covid warning as hospitalisations rise and XEC strain surge - full list of symptoms

Experts are monitoring the new variant closely and some believe it could become the dominant strain, leading to a surge in new hospitalisations.

By Josh Sandiford, Reporter, Ben Hurst

18:13, Fri, Oct 11, 2024 | UPDATED: 18:22, Fri, Oct 11, 2024

Covid-19 cases are climbing across the UK driven by new variants such as XEC, health officials have confirmed.

According to the latest data from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), Covid incidence is increasing across “most indicators” - with a particular rise in hospitalisations.

Hospital admission rates have risen to 4.55 per 100,000 people, up from 3.72 per 100,000 the previous week. The data also flagged 59 “acute respiratory incidents” related to the virus.

The surge is most pronounced among the elderly and especially those aged 85 and over, where positivity rates have peaked.

The NHS has urged people to isolate if possible, amid concerns that the XEC strain could become the dominant variant in the UK, the Mirror reported.

It means those experiencing a high temperature or feeling unwell enough to miss work or school are encouraged to avoid contact with others until they feel better.

For children with mild symptoms such as a runny nose, sore throat or cough, they can attend school or childcare if they feel well enough.

Dr Jamie Lopez Bernal, the lead consultant epidemiologist at UKHSA, said: "Covid-19 is continuing to circulate, with a slight increase in hospitalisations over the past two weeks. As winter approaches, we expect flu and RSV to increasingly circulate too, so if you're eligible to get vaccinated against the three main winter threats – Covid-19, flu and RSV – now is the time to take them up and get winter strong.

"We understand people may be concerned about new variants. Our surveillance shows that where Covid cases are sequenced, around 1 in 10 are the XEC lineage. Current information doesn't suggest we should be more concerned about this variant but we are monitoring this closely. The most important thing to do is to get your vaccination as soon as possible if you're eligible."

More

Covid warning as hospitalisations rise and XEC strain surge | UK | News | Express.co.uk

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Well maybe. But a lot of other material drips off trains onto the tracks.

Solar power project hits the rails with between-track panel pilot

By Paul Ridden  October 10, 2024

Even on busy rail networks, the gap between lines can spend much of its time doing little but face skyward, so why not put that space to good use? Swiss startup Sun-Ways is looking to do just that by installing solar panels in between railway tracks.

Despite many household and business rooftops rocking solar panels, and dedicated "farms" also soaking up the Sun's energy, there's still huge potential for harvesting much more.

Sun-ways is looking to tap into the estimated 1-TWh annual energy potential from the 5,000-km of railroad tracks in Switzerland by laying removable PV panels between them. The company states that this could potentially meet the electricity needs of almost a third of the country's public transport sector, while making yearly CO2 savings of more than 200,000 tons.

Each "full black" panel measures 1 x 1.7 m (3.3 x 5.5 ft) and features an anti-reflective filter to prevent glare. This is mounted as a multi-array format in a frame where all components and wiring are housed within. The current setup is designed to fit track gauges of 1.43 m (4.6 ft), though this can be adapted for non-standard installations.

The multi-panel modules can be installed and connected manually by engineers, but railway maintenance company Scheuchzer SA has developed a machine capable of installing up to 1,000 m2 of Sun-Ways panel arrays per day.

The "solar power plant" has been designed so that the panel modules can be temporarily removed while railway engineers perform track maintenance, and then put back down when work has been completed. And the setup has been tested for stability for trains passing overhead at up to 150 km/h (93 mph), and can withstand 240-km/h (150 mph) winds.

Since the panels are laid flat, snowfall during winter months will naturally adversely affect performance. But the company told us that cylindrical brushes could be attached to the ends of trains to deal with the inevitable accumulation of dirt – so it's not a huge leap to come up with something similar to clear snow.

Electricity produced by the system could be used to power nearby infrastructure such as switches or points – or even stations. Of course it could be fed into the grid, or routed to "the traction energy network that powers locomotives" – which negates the need for ground-based inverters.

More

Solar power project hits the rails with between-track panel pilot (newatlas.com)

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Legal plunder can be committed in an infinite number of ways; hence, there are an infinite number of plans for organizing it: tariffs, protection, bonuses, subsidies, incentives, the progressive income tax, free education, the right to employment, the right to profit, the right to wages, the right to relief, the right to the tools of production, interest free credit, etc., etc. And it the aggregate of all these plans, in respect to what they have in common, legal plunder, that goes under the name of socialism.

Frederic Bastiat.

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