Baltic Dry Index. 1907 -21 Brent Crude 79.73
Spot Gold 2642 US 2 Year Yield 3.99 +0.06
No society can surely be flourishing and happy, of which the far greater part of the members are poor and miserable.
Adam Smith. “An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations”, 1776.
In Asia, China’s stock casinos reopened after a week’s holiday, surged higher into heavy selling and then sold off.
In Europe, the stock casinos are facing a mixed opening at best.
In America’s stock casinos, the crash month of October is off to a worrying start.
Not for nothing is Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway selling and hoarding cash.
Not to worry though, Wall Streets perma-bull hacks say buy more. But is betting against Warren Buffett in October really wise?
The crude oil market is starting to price in an oil supply shock.
Bunker time.
China
rally loses steam as authorities disappoint markets; Hong Kong stocks plunge
more than 6%
Updated
Tue, Oct 8 2024 11:02 PM EDT
SINGAPORE
— The rally in Chinese markets lost steam on Tuesday after a briefing from the
country’s National Development and Reform Commission provided few details on
further stimulus.
While
mainland China’s CSI 300 skyrocketed over 10% at the open Tuesday in its return
from the Golden Week holiday, the index pared gains to a 5% rise later in the
session.
Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng index briefly
plummeted over 10%, before recovering slightly to a smaller loss of 6.4%.
Other
Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell on Tuesday, with investors watching August pay
and spending data out from Japan.
Household
spending in Japan fell 1.9% year-on-year in August in real terms, a
softer fall compared to the 2.6% decline expected by a Reuters poll of
economists.
The
drop is the fastest pace of decline since January, which saw a 6.3% fall
year-on-year. That decline also came before spring wage negotiations delivered
the largest pay hikes to unionized Japanese workers in 33 years.
However,
real wages rose in August, with data from the country’s statistics bureau
indicating that wages climbed 2% to an average of 574,334 yen ($3,877.44).
The
benchmark Nikkei 225 slipped
0.99% after the release, while the Topix was down 1.06%.
South
Korea’s Kospi was
0.72% lower, dragged by shares of heavyweight Samsung Electronics after it
released worse
than expected third quarter guidance.
The
small cap Kosdaq was down 0.31%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped
marginally.
Overnight
in the U.S., stocks slid as rising oil prices and higher Treasury yields
weighed on market sentiment.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped
0.94%, while the S&P 500 slid
0.96%. The Nasdaq Composite
saw the largest loss, falling 1.18%.
The
benchmark 10-year Treasury
yield rose to 4.02%, marking the first time since August that the
yield topped 4%.
Oil
prices also rose as tensions in the Middle East remain high. U.S. crude climbed
more than 3% to settle
above $77 per barrel.
Asia markets live: Japan pay data, China markets (cnbc.com)
European
markets set to open in mixed territory as uncertainty spreads
Updated
Tue, Oct 8 2024 12:42 AM EDT
European
markets are heading for a mixed open Tuesday as regional sentiment sours
further after a shaky start to the week, with investors watching the conflict
in the Middle East closely and its potential impact on oil markets, supply
chains and the global economy.
Elsewhere
overnight, U.S.
stock futures were little changed following a losing day on Wall
Street Monday as rising oil prices and bond yields weighed on markets.
In the Asia-Pacific
region, an initial rally for Chinese markets lost steam after a briefing
from the country’s National Development and Reform Commission provided few
details on further stimulus.
Earlier,
mainland China’s CSI 300 index had skyrocketed over 10% at the open at its
return from the Golden Week holiday, but the index pared gains later in the
session.
Key
releases for markets this week include U.S. Federal Reserve minutes and German
trade on Wednesday, U.S. inflation on Thursday and U.K. economic growth on
Friday.
Europe markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
CNBC
Daily Open: Fear is the stock killer
Published
Mon, Oct 7 2024 9:03 PM EDT
Stocks
slumped on persistent fears
Major U.S.
indexes retreated on Monday. The S&P 500 lost 0.96%,
the Dow Jones Industrial
Average dropped 0.94% and the Nasdaq Composite slumped
1.18%. But Super Micro shares
were a bright spot, jumping
15.8%. Europe’s regional Stoxx
600 index added
0.18%. Household goods led gains, closing 0.97% higher, while tech shares
fell 0.65%.
No
more jumbo cuts
After last week’s
expectation-busting jobs
report for September, there’s virtually
zero chance the U.S. Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates by
half a percentage point at its next meeting, strategists told CNBC. Traders
agree. A week ago, they bet on a 34.7% chance of another jumbo cut by the Fed;
today, it’s 0%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
---- The bottom line
September’s
blockbuster jobs report, released Friday, lifted sentiment and stocks enough
that major indexes reversed their losses and ended last week in the green, but
just barely.
That
halo has now faded away. Markets are back to contending with rising oil prices,
inflation possibly reaccelerating, fewer-than-expected rate cuts and
potentially even a distant recession.
Oil prices
spiked yesterday after having their best week in over a year. And
September’s blockbuster jobs report, the futures market is pricing in a 13.7% chance the Fed will not cut rates at all at its
November meeting. That’s a drastic change from a week ago when traders thought
there was a 34.7% chance of a 50-basis-point cut.
But
a recession?
Admittedly,
that’s speculation on my part. But it bears pointing out that the yield curve
between the 10- and 2-year Treasurys is “getting close to flipping back into
danger territory,” as CNBC’s Jeff Cox noted.
Simply
put, when the 10-year yield is lower than that of the 2-year, the yield curve
is inverted – which has almost always preceded a recession since the mid-1970s.
The yield curve inverted in early July 2022 and normalized in early September.
After
Monday, however, the gap between the 10- and 2-year yields is now just 3.5
basis points. It’s not inconceivable, then, for investors who take stock in
what the yield curve signals to panic a little.
That
said, strategists think a recession is a far-fetched idea, considering the
health of the U.S. economy.
As
David Roche, founder and strategist at Quantum Strategy, put it, “the economy
is fine, thank you very much.”
So
much so that “the probability of the American economy going into recession, at
least in the fourth quarter of this year, and probably in the first quarter of
next year, is close to zero,” said
Bob Parker, senior advisor at the International Capital Markets
Association.
Concrete
numbers are driving market movement. But there’s an undercurrent of fear that
can perhaps run contrary to what some of those numbers are saying.
CNBC Daily Open: Fear is the stock killer
Traders
Worry About ‘No Landing’ After Hot Jobs Report
October
7, 2024 at 10:57 PM GMT+1
The
“no landing” scenario, one where the US economy just keeps
growing, inflation reignites and the Federal Reserve has little room to cut
interest rates—had largely disappeared as a bond-market talking point in recent
months. It only took a blowout payrolls report to revive it. Data showing the
fastest job growth in six months, a surprising drop in unemployment and higher
wages sent Treasury yields surging and had investors furiously reversing course on bets for a larger-than-normal
half-point interest-rate reduction as soon as next month. It’s yet
another recalibration for traders who had been setting up for
slowing growth, benign inflation and aggressive rate cuts by piling into Fed
rate-sensitive short-term US notes. Instead, Friday’s report brought back a
whole new set of worries around overheating.
Here
are today’s top stories
Hurricane Milton strengthened into a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane as it bears down on Florida’s
west coast, where residents have begun to flee inland. Milton’s top winds have
reached 160 miles (257 kilometers) per hour, up from 90 mph at 1 a.m. local
time Monday. This makes Milton one of the most powerful storms produced in the
Atlantic this year, rivaled only by Hurricane Beryl, which raked Texas, Mexico
and the Caribbean in July.
More
Bloomberg Evening Briefing: Traders Worry About ‘No Landing’ After Hot Jobs Data - Bloomberg
Finally, is GB in for a repeat of 1987 this week? Probably not. The latest projections show the remnants of hurricane Kirk moving further south and into France in the Bay of Biscay.
Great
storm of 1987
The great
storm of 1987 was a violent extratropical cyclone that occurred on the night of 15–16 October, with
hurricane-force winds causing casualties in the United Kingdom, France, and
the Channel Islands as a severe depression in the Bay of Biscay moved
northeast. Among the most damaged areas were Greater London, Kent, the East Anglian coast,
the Home Counties, the west of Brittany, and
the Cotentin Peninsula of Normandy, all of
which weathered gusts typically with a return period of
1 in 200 years.
Forests,
parks, roads, and railways were strewn with fallen trees and schools were
closed. The British National
Grid suffered heavy damage, leaving
thousands without power. At least 22 people were killed in England and France.[6][3] The
highest measured gust of 135 miles per hour; 217 kilometres per hour
(117 kn) was recorded at Pointe Du Roc, Granville,
France and the highest gust in the UK of 120 mph; 190 km/h
(100 kn) was recorded at Shoreham, West Sussex.[7] The
storm has been termed a weather bomb due
to its rapid development.[8]
More
Great storm of 1987 - Wikipedia
BBC meteorologist Michael Fish drew particular criticism for reporting several hours before the storm hit:
Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way; well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't, but having said that, actually, the weather will become very windy, but most of the strong winds, incidentally, will be down over Spain and across into France.[38]
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
German industrial orders slump more than expected in August
7
October 2024
(Reuters)
-German industrial orders fell significantly more than expected in August,
adding to signs that manufacturing in Europe's largest economy will not recover
in the coming months.
Orders
fell by 5.8% on the previous month on a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis,
the federal statistics office said Monday.
A
Reuters poll of analysts had pointed to a fall of 2.0%.
One
reason for the negative result was the very large orders for transport
equipment - such as aircraft, ships, trains and military vehicles - placed the
previous month.
Excluding
large-scale orders, new orders in August were 3.4% lower than in July.
The
statistics office revised up the all-items figure for July to show a 3.9%
increase on the month from a previous figure of 2.9% due to a considerable
volume of orders reported late by establishments.
The
less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that new orders were
3.9% higher in the period from June to August than in the previous three
months.
Indicators
point to weak demand in the coming months.
Germany's
manufacturing sector contracted at its fastest pace in a year in September,
driven by sharp declines in output, new orders and employment, PMI data for
manufacturing showed last week.
German industrial orders slump more than expected in August (msn.com)
Germany's Habeck admits economy struggling as GDP set to contract
7
October 2024
German
Economy Minister Robert Habeck on Monday admitted that the country's economy is
performing poorly, as a report suggested a new government forecast expects
gross domestic product (GDP) to decline in 2024.
Habeck
said in Berlin that economic data was being adjusted "downwards,"
appearing to confirm a report by the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper that GDP is
now expected to drop 0.2% for the year, down from previous estimates of a 0.3%
increase.
The
minister is due to present the figures, which also include a forecast of 1.1%
growth for 2025, on Wednesday.
Habeck
said the coalition government's growth initiative would provide a stimulus to
the German economy, but the proposal still requires approval from the German
parliament.
"The
German government's growth initiative is a first step towards enabling an
upturn, but we have to build on it," German Finance Minister Christian
Lindner said on Monday.
"The
German economy is treading water. We cannot be satisfied with the economic
development. We have a structural change that is combined with a loss of
competitiveness," he added.
The
German finance minister was speaking ahead of a meeting of eurozone finance
ministers in Luxembourg to discuss the European Union's economic growth and
competitiveness.
The
German finance minister was speaking ahead of a meeting of eurozone finance
ministers in Luxembourg to discuss the European Union's economic growth and
competitiveness.
Germany's Habeck admits economy struggling as GDP set to contract (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Yes, it’s covid winter scare season again. What about giving the elderly and vulnerable free vitamin D boosters, instead of big pharma “vaccines” that don’t prevent infections?
Covid
doctor explains why XEC variant could bring back masks and social distancing
Doctor Joseph Ambani has warned that the XEC variant of Covid-19, which is currently surging across the UK, has the potential to fuel a tripledemic this winter
16:26,
5 Oct 2024
A
doctor has issued a stark warning that the XEC variant of Covid-19 could bring
back the dreaded masks and social distancing, over three years following the
end of the last pandemic lockdown. Dr Joseph Ambani warned of "significant
potential" for the new strain to trigger a crippling tripledemic this winter,
where influenza, RSV, and Covid-19 could simultaneously skyrocket.
The
healthcare expert from Glowbar LDN warned about the risks: "Unlike
previous variants, XEC's immune-evasive
properties could increase the risk of co-infections, posing a serious threat,
particularly to individuals whose immunity has already been weakened post-Covid."
He
detailed the dangers: "This could lead to not just overlapping infections
but more severe illness in vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and
those with pre-existing conditions."
Dr
Ambani didn't stop there; he also raised the alarm that the XEC variant might push
the NHS to its
limits and escalate demand for ICUs (intensive care units) while possibly
heralding a return to familiar Covid-era restrictions.
His words spell out concern: "The strain on the NHS could be severe. With
hospital resources already stretched to their limits, a tripledemic could bring
services to the brink."
He
then highlighted a critical issue: "What is particularly concerning is the
increased demand for ICU care, as patients with compounded respiratory
illnesses would require more intensive and prolonged treatment,"
reports the
Express.
"This
may disrupt not only routine care but also delay elective procedures and
non-emergency treatments, creating a ripple effect throughout the healthcare
system."
"Mask
mandates and social distancing in high-risk settings, such as hospitals, public
transport, and care homes, could be reinstated to protect the most vulnerable.
Bubbling may once again be considered for at-risk individuals to minimise their
exposure to multiple infections."
In
light of XEC's threat, Dr
Ambani urged government action: "Increased vaccination efforts, especially
for flu and Covid, will be
essential, and the public may need to renew their commitment to protective
measures to prevent overwhelming the system."
Other
healthcare experts are raising alarm bells on XEC, with the Manchester Evening News
reporting insights from Dr Hellen Wall: "At the moment, it seems to be a
bit more flu-like than previous iterations of Covid, with a high
temperature, a cough, aching body, headache. Generally, if you've got true flu,
you're bed-bound. With Covid, you might actually be quite well."
Dr
Wall warned that the XEC variant's
similarities to seasonal flu could lead to unintentional transmission, saying:
"You might be coughing and having other symptoms, but able to go about
your business – and you might be unintentionally spreading it to people who are
vulnerable."
He
noted that only the most severe cases are detected through hospital testing,
and urged eligible individuals to get vaccinated to protect others, stating:
"If you've been deemed eligible for these vaccines, it's because we think
you're going to be very ill if you get these and end up in hospital."
He
added: "It's about keeping that in perspective, you don't want to look
back and wish you'd had the jabs."
Covid doctor explains why XEC variant could bring back masks and social distancing - Mirror Online
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Sweco to
design one of Europe's largest battery energy storage systems in Belgium
7
October 2024
(Reuters)
- Swedish engineering consultancy company Sweco said it would design one of
Europe's largest battery energy storage systems, called Green Turtle, in
Belgium. Sweco is designing the battery park on behalf of the company GIGA
Storage Belgium.
WHY IT
MATTERS:
Sweco
said the park would make a significant contribution to the energy grid by
providing stored renewable energy during periods of low solar and wind energy
production — thereby reducing Belgium's reliance on gas power plants.
BY THE
NUMBERS:
The
planned Green Turtle battery park will have a capacity of 700 megawatts,
resulting in a storage capacity of 2,800 megawatt hours, which is equivalent to
the average annual energy consumption of 385,000 households.
Construction
on the project is due to begin in 2025, with the new battery park expected to
be completed by 2028.
CONTEXT:
Europe
wants to obtain 42.5% of its energy from renewable sources by 2030, but the
procedure for grid permitting has been sluggish and the zone's power networks
are being upgraded slowly.
Amid
this backdrop, EU regulators last month approved a 682 million euro Belgian
state aid scheme to support renewable offshore wind energy.
KEY
QUOTE:
"The
agreement concluded with our contractors, including Sweco, to be GIGA Storage
Belgium’s partner for the design of the Green Turtle battery park comprises an
important milestone," said Joeri Siborgs, General Manager of GIGA Storage
Belgium.
"This
is a flagship project for us in Belgium and an important project in realising
the energy transition in Europe, where access to large-scale electricity
storage plays a vital role," he added.
Sweco to design
one of Europe's largest battery energy storage systems in Belgium (msn.com)
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
People
of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but
the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some
contrivance to raise prices. It is impossible indeed to prevent such meetings,
by any law which either could be executed, or would be consistent with liberty
or justice. But though the law cannot hinder people of the same trade from
sometimes assembling together, it ought to do nothing to facilitate such
assemblies; much less to render them necessary.
Adam Smith. . “An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of
the Wealth of Nations”, 1776.
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