Monday, 7 October 2024

One Year On. Fifty Years On. US Inflation Week. A Stormy Week.

Baltic Dry Index. 1928 -13          Brent Crude  77.76

Spot Gold 2643                US 2 Year Yield 3.93 +0.23

When paper money systems begin to crack at the seams, the run to gold could be explosive.

Harry Browne.

Today we commemorate, in thoughts and prayers, those victims, including hostages, of the terrorist atrocity committed in southern Israel one year ago today.

It is US inflation data week, though little change is expected. Today we remember the moslem terrorist atrocity on Israel.

On Saturday, we remember the IRA terrorist bombing of Margaret Thatcher’s hotel in Brighton, England, in 1984. A terrorist organisation largely funded by Americans.

It’s a strange old world and getting ever stranger. Who would have thought that the London-Washington War Party would be fighting a NATO proxy war on Russia in the Ukraine, over denying a diplomatic solution to Russia’s version of JFK’s 1962 Cuban missile crisis. Why? Who gains?

Japan leads Asia markets higher; Nintendo rallies after Saudi fund reportedly looks to raise stake

Published Sun, Oct 6 2024 7:42 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets mostly climbed on Monday, led by Japan’s Nikkei 225 rising almost 2% as investors look ahead to a week of central bank decisions from around the region.

The gains on the Nikkei were powered by financials and consumer cyclical stocks, with names like Mizuho Financial Group and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group among top gainers on the index.

Separately, shares of video gaming company Nintendo climbed over 3.8% on Monday, after Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund was reported to be considering raising its stake in the company and other Japanese gaming counterparts.

The yen strengthened 0.16% to trade at 148.46 after hitting its weakest level in over two months earlier in the session. The dollar gained after a strong U.S. jobs report on Friday, which also reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve would need another 50-basis-pont rate cut.

The yen has also been under pressure after new Japan Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he doesn’t “think the environment is ready for an additional rate hike” from the Bank of Japan.

Three central banks are set to release their interest rate decisions this week, namely the Bank of Korea, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Reserve Bank of India.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the BOK and RBNZ to cut rates, while the RBI will hold.

The BOK on Friday is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate to 3.25% from 3.5%, while the RBNZ is expected to enact a 50-basis-point cut to 4.75% on Wednesday.

Back in August, the RBNZ surprised economists after it lowered its policy rate to 5.25% from 5.5%.

South Korea’s Kospi reversed losses and rose 0.98%, while the small-cap Kosdaq was up 1.3%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.46%, with lithium stocks listed in Australia rallying after Rio Tinto expressed interest in acquiring U.S. lithium producer Arcadium. 

Liontown Resources rose 16.22%, Mineral Resources added 5.06%, while Pilbara Minerals and IGO traded around 3.61% and 3.36% higher, respectively. Arcadium Lithium’s Australia-listed shares surged more than 42%.

However, Hong Kong Hang Seng index climbed 1.14%, while mainland China’s markets remained closed for the Golden Week holiday and will return to trade on Tuesday.

Over in the U.S, stocks advanced on Friday after a stronger-than-expected jobs report gave investors confidence around the health of the economy.

Data showed nonfarm payrolls grew by 254,000 jobs in September, far outpacing the forecasted gain of 150,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% despite expectations for it to hold steady at 4.2%.

The S&P 500 rose 0.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.22%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.81% to notch an all-time closing high of 42,352.75.

Asia markets live: BOK, RBI, RBNZ rate decisions in week ahead (cnbc.com)

Stock futures are little changed after sluggish start to October: Live updates

Updated Mon, Oct 7 2024 7:12 PM EDT

Stock futures were calm on Sunday evening as Wall Street looks to keep the momentum from Friday’s rally.

S&P 500 futures added 0.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures were up roughly 0.2%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures ticked up 53 points, or about 0.1%.

The move in futures comes after a bumpy week for stocks that saw the major averages grind out modest gains. The S&P 500 added 0.22% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite inched up 0.10% and the Dow added 0.09%.

It was the fourth winning week in a row for all three averages, helped by a stronger-than-expected jobs report on Friday that gave more support to the idea that the Federal Reserve may pull off a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy. The Dow closed at a record high after the report.

“Two old adages on Wall Street: don’t fight the trend and don’t fight the Federal Reserve. ... These remain among two key pillars for today’s equity market,” Truist Wealth co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner said in a note Friday.

However, Lerner did caution that the looming U.S. presidential election and the potential for so-called “October surprise” could keep market volatility elevated in the coming weeks.

Investors will keep an eye on the international news this week, with tensions still high in the Middle East.

On the economic front, key releases in the week ahead include the Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Wednesday and the consumer price index report on Thursday. Earnings season also starts to heat up, with results from Delta Air Lines and JPMorgan Chase due out Thursday and Friday, respectively.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

In other news, Florida readies for another hurricane. Britain and Ireland ready for the remnants of hurricane Kirk, although there is still a chance it may track further south into France and northern Spain.

Florida readies for major hurricane Milton, still reeling from Helene

By Daniel Trotta and Bo Erickson

October 7, 2024 4:02 AM GMT+1

Oct 6 (Reuters) - Florida prepared on Sunday for its largest evacuation since 2017 as Hurricane Milton intensified in the Gulf of Mexico on its path toward the U.S. state's western coast, coming on the heels of the devastating Hurricane Helene.

Milton, which strengthened from a tropical storm to hurricane on Sunday, was projected to make landfall on Wednesday as a major hurricane, likely hitting near the heavily populated Tampa Bay area, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

The new hurricane was expected to affect areas already hit hard by Helene, which made landfall further north on Sept. 26.

Kevin Guthrie, director of Florida's emergency management division, urged people to prepare for the "largest evacuation that we have seen most likely since 2017 Hurricane Irma."

"I highly encourage you to evacuate," Guthrie told Floridians in a press conference.

Milton was about 780 miles (1,255 km) west-southwest of Tampa as of 7 p.m. EDT on Sunday (0000 GMT on Monday), packing maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km) and moving to the east toward Florida at 7 mph (11 kph), the National Hurricane Center said.

"There are some areas with a lot of debris that is there, so if you get hit with a major hurricane, what's going to happen to that debris? It's going to increase the damage dramatically," DeSantis said. "This is all hands on deck to get that debris where it needs to be."

Pinellas County, which includes the city of St. Petersburg, on Monday was likely to issue mandatory evacuations for more than 500,000 people in the lowest lying areas, Sheriff Bob Gualtieri told a press conference.

He urged people to heed evacuation orders after he said too many ignored them for Helene, resulting in 12 deaths in the county and 1,500 emergency calls that were unable to be answered.

The county already ordered the evacuation of six hospitals, 25 nursing homes and 44 assisted living facilities totaling 6,600 patients, said Cathie Perkins, director of the county's emergency management. School was canceled from Monday to Wednesday.

"We already will be rebuilding for years because of Hurricane Helene, and that will be exacerbated by the impacts of this storm," St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch said. "Remember, Hurricane Helene was 100 miles (160 km) away from us, moving in a different direction. This is a powerful Cat 2 or Cat 3 hurricane headed directly for us."

More

Florida readies for major hurricane Milton, still reeling from Helene | Reuters

Former Hurricane Kirk set to batter Britain with rain and heavy winds this week as 145mph storm barrels across the Atlantic

By Richard Marsden

Published: 13:10, 6 October 2024 | Updated: 13:12, 6 October 2024

Gales and heavy rain could batter Britain as a former tropical hurricane barrels across the Atlantic in the coming days.

The remnants of 145mph Hurricane Kirk are set to arrive by midweek, potentially affecting the country on Wednesday and Thursday.

Central and Southern England and Wales are in line for the worst of the weather, with 'heavy rain and disruptive winds', forecasters say.

It comes after 10 English counties experienced the wettest September on record, with up to three times the average rainfall.

The Met Office said the whole of England and Wales, plus southern Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland are at risk of 'disruption' from Kirk - although it is too early to issue specific warnings.

Chris Bulmer, Deputy Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, said: 'Kirk over the North Atlantic will lose its status as a hurricane early next week before being swept towards northwest Europe.

'The resulting low pressure system will still have the potential to bring disruptive rain and winds to some areas, including parts of the UK, from the middle of (the) week.

'There remains much detail to work out on the exact track and timing of the system.

'Across the UK, parts of England and Wales look to have the greatest risk of heavy rain and strong winds during Wednesday and Thursday.

'However, a more southward track of this system, which is equally plausible at this stage, would see the most disruptive conditions impact France. The need for warnings will be kept under review over the coming days, so it’s important to stay up to date with the latest forecast.'

More

Former Hurricane Kirk set to batter Britain with rain and heavy winds this week as 145mph storm barrels across the Atlantic | Daily Mail Online

Finally, some good EV news for a change. That’s 3,000 EVs that won’t become fire risks to anyone else.

3,000 EVs in Vietnam destroyed after fire breaks out at factory

5 October 2024

A huge fire at a factory in northern Vietnam destroyed 3,000 electric bikes and motorbikes Friday, state media said.

Thick smoke rose from a warehouse belonging to the DK Vietnam-Japan Electric Vehicle Company in Lang Son City after the fire reportedly broke out around 7:00 am on Friday. Several explosions were heard.

Over 2,000 electric motorcycle components were also destroyed in the flames, state media said.

Hoang Van Khoi, the husband of the company's founder, confirmed to AFP there had been a fire but did not elaborate.

The fire started on the second floor of the parts warehouse and spread to other floors and adjacent workshops, according to state-owned VTV.

The DK Bike electric vehicle production facility spans over 3,000 square metres (32,300 square feet) and includes areas for production, assembly, parts and a showroom for finished vehicles. 

The fire has now been mostly extinguished, and authorities are investigating the cause. 

DK Bike is a Vietnam-Japan joint venture, according to its website. The company specialises in manufacturing bicycles, electric bicycles, electric motorcycles, and 50cc small-displacement motorcycles. 

3,000 EVs in Vietnam destroyed after fire breaks out at factory (msn.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Weekly focus – Lower inflation clears path for European rate cuts

ANALYSIS | 10/04/2024 13:35:43 GMT

----Euro area inflation declined in September to 1.8% y/y and is hence now below the 2% target. Perhaps more important, the month-to-month momentum in service prices dropped to just 0.14% by the ECB's calculation. There are some temporary factors at play and it is just one month, but we now judge the scale to have tipped in favour of an ECB rate cut at the next meeting on October 17, also because of weaker economic data (see Yield Outlook - Arguments for policy restrictiveness fade, 30 September). For example, although euro area unemployment remained at a record low in August, several indicators point to easing labour markets. Not least the reported labour demand from companies in the PMI surveys, which is usually a fairly good indicator of credit growth, has taken a turn downwards in the September data, but the euro area labour market also remains very fragmentated with more weakness to the North and strength to the South.

In the US, job growth of 254,000 in September was much stronger than expected. The unemployment rate declined to 4.1% from 4.2%, whereas average hourly earnings increased 0,4% compared to August, the second month with such a relatively strong increase. Together with other indicators of a relatively strong US labour market, this likely means that the next rate cut from the Fed will be 25bp rather than 50bp as last time. Note however that there will be one more job report before the rate decision in November, and as the September surprise illustrates, the job numbers are hard to predict and could surprise also in the other direction.

The most interesting data release scheduled for next week is US inflation data due on Thursday. The release is unlikely to change the market perception that inflation is mostly a solved problem and not a hindrance for rate cuts and that the labour market is the more important factor to watch, but how sticky service inflation is could well affect the Fed's thinking about the pace of rate cuts. With just a month to go before the election and the race being very close, US politics is also likely to draw attention.

Weekly focus – Lower inflation clears path for European rate cuts (fxstreet.com)

We are in a world of irredeemable paper money - a state of affairs unprecedented in history.

John Exter.

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Regeneron loses key defense in COVID-19 treatment patent lawsuit

By Blake Brittain  October 4, 2024 9:19 PM GMT+1

Oct 4 - Biotech company Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN.O), opens new tab lost a bid on Friday to be held immune from allegations that it misused a patented protein while testing a COVID-19 treatment.

U.S. District Judge Philip Halpern rejected Regeneron's pretrial argument, opens new tab that he should throw out Allele Biotechnology and Pharmaceuticals' patent lawsuit over the treatment based on a federal law allowing the use of patented inventions to test drugs during the U.S. Food and Drug Administration application process.

Attorneys and spokespeople for Regeneron did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the decision. An attorney for Allele declined to comment.

The companies stipulated last year that Regeneron was liable for patent infringement if its "safe harbor" defense failed, leaving the amount of damages Regeneron owes to be determined at a future trial.

San Diego-based Allele sued Regeneron in 2021, accusing the rival biotech company of using Allele's fluorescent protein mNeonGreen to test its coronavirus antibody cocktail REGEN-COV without a license. Tarrytown, N.Y.-based Regeneron earned nearly $6.2 billion from sales of REGEN-COV that year, according to a company report.

Allele settled a lawsuit against Pfizer and BioNTech in 2022 over their use of the same protein in developing their COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty.

Halpern denied Regeneron's earlier bid to dismiss the case in 2022 and said he needed more information before ruling on the company's safe harbor defense. The judge said on Friday that Regeneron was not immune from Allele's allegations, finding that mNeonGreen was "a research tool that is not under the scope of the safe harbor provision."

The case is Allele Biotechnology and Pharmaceuticals Inc v. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc, U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, No. 7:20-cv-08255.

For Allele: David Anstaett, Martin Gilmore, Christopher Hanewicz, Andrew Dufresne, Elise Edlin and Maria Stubbings of Perkins Coie

For Regeneron: Michael Morin, David Frazier, Arlene Chow and Michelle Ernst of Latham & Watkins

Regeneron loses key defense in COVID-19 treatment patent lawsuit | Reuters

COVID-19 hospitalization remains higher among older adults

Chris Dall, MA  October 4, 2024

New data published yesterday in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) show older adults continue to be hospitalized for COVID-19 at a much higher rate than other age groups.

The data analyzed by the COVID-Net Surveillance team, which includes researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and state public health departments, show that cumulative rates of COVID-19 hospitalization from October 2023 through April 2024 were the lowest for all adult age groups during the October-to-April surveillance period since the first year of the pandemic. An estimated 40,761 COVID-19–associated hospitalizations occurred during the surveillance period, 38,900 of them in adults ages 18 and older.

But adults ages 65 and older accounted for 70% of all adult COVID-associated hospitalizations, and hospitalization rates were highest among those ages 75 and older, with nearly one COVID-associated hospitalization for every 100 persons. Relative to adults ages 18 to 49 years, cumulative hospitalization rates among adults aged 65 to 74 and over 75 years during the surveillance period were 7.3 and 24.1 times as high, respectively.

"These findings suggest that COVID-19–associated hospitalization among adults aged ≥65 years remains a public health concern," the study authors wrote.

Racial and ethnic disparities, low vaccination rates

The data, collected from 90 counties across 12 states, also showed that disparities in COVID-19 hospitalization by race and ethnicity have decreased but continue to persist.

During the surveillance period, hospitalization rates were highest among non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) and non-Hispanic black adults; rates among both groups were 1.4 and 1.3 times higher than those among Hispanic and non-Hispanic White adults, respectively. Data from the July 2021 to August 2022 surveillance period showed that age-adjusted COVID hospitalization rates were twice as high for AI/AN and Black adults compared with White adults.

More

COVID-19 hospitalization remains higher among older adults | CIDRAP (umn.edu)

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Why Do Lithium-Ion Batteries Catch Fire?

Reviewed by Lexie Corner Oct 1 2024

This article overviews the causes of lithium-ion battery fires, examines the associated risks, and discusses preventive measures and industry contributions toward improving lithium battery safety.

Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are integral to modern technology, powering consumer electronics, electric vehicles (EVs), and renewable energy systems due to their high energy density, low self-discharge, rapid charging, and long lifespan. However, due to the volatility of their internal components, LIBs also present safety risks, notably the potential for fires and explosions.

Even though the reported incidents of LIB fires are low—ranging from one in one million to one in ten million units—understanding the causes of these incidents is crucial for improving battery safety in consumer and industrial applications.1

Causes of Lithium-Ion Battery Fires

Thermal Runaway

Thermal runaway is a significant cause of LIB fires. It occurs when heat generated by the battery exceeds its cooling capacity, leading to a rapid temperature rise.

This happens when the battery's internal temperature exceeds 90-120 °C, triggering exothermic reactions in the electrolyte that decompose the solid electrolyte interface (SEI) and other components, releasing more heat.

As temperature escalates beyond 200 °C, the breakdown of the hydrocarbon electrolyte releases flammable gases, potentially leading to explosions.

Internal Short Circuits

Internal short circuits, caused by manufacturing defects, physical damage, or improper handling, can cause the separator to collapse and allow direct contact between the anode and cathode. This contact generates localized heating, triggering a thermal reaction and igniting the flammable electrolyte.

Overcharging and Overheating

Overcharging a LIB beyond its voltage limit causes excess lithium ions to accumulate on the anode, forming metallic lithium. This can lead to dendrites—needle-like structures that may pierce the separator and cause internal short circuits.

Additionally, prolonged exposure to high temperatures accelerates material degradation, increasing fire risk; even ambient temperatures above 40 °C can harm battery health, while extreme temperatures may lead to rapid failure and combustion.

External Damage

External physical damage, such as impact, puncture, or bending, can compromise battery safety by deforming the casing and exposing internal components. This can lead to electrolyte exposure to oxygen, resulting in increased fire risk.2,3

More

Why Do Lithium-Ion Batteries Catch Fire? (azom.com)

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the hidden confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.

Alan Greenspan.


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