Hurricane Milton Lands. Stocks In Never, Never Land. German Recession.

Baltic Dry Index. 1799 -61          Brent Crude  77.20

Spot Gold 2612                US 2 Year Yield 3.99 +0.01

The markets are moved by animal spirits, and not by reason.

John Maynard Keynes.

With main stream media dominated today with hurricane Milton, we will focus instead on US and some other stock casinos fast leaving the atmosphere for outer space.

Later today, the latest US consumer inflation data, although it’s likely to be over whelmed by events in Florida.

Despite the ever growing US stock bubble and mania, back to back hurricanes and the economic disruption, unemployment  and property destruction they cause, are not reasons to buy stocks trading at new bubble highs.

Asia-Pacific markets gain after S&P 500 and Dow hit new highs

Updated Thu, Oct 10 2024 11:43 PM EDT

SINGAPORE — Asia-Pacific markets opened mostly higher on Thursday, following gains on Wall Street that saw the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reach new records as investors shook off geopolitical concerns.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.3% in early trade South Korea’s Kospi jumped 0.7%, while the small-cap Kosdaq was down 0.4%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading up 0.3%, while the broad-based Topix gained 0.2%.

Traders in Asia were assessing September data on producer prices in Japan which rose 2.8% from a year ago. Economists polled by Reuters had predicted the inflation rate would come in at 2.3%, down from 2.5% in August.

Japanese retailer Seven & i Holdings Co. will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday, with much of the focus on what it will say about restructuring and outlook after it reportedly received a higher buyout offer from Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. Seven & i shares were up just 0.6% on Thursday.

The mainland CSI 300 was up 1.7% in trading, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up 4% in early trading.

The better performance in Chinese stocks comes after the Shenzhen Composite Index registered its worst trading day since 1997 on Wednesday. Following a blitz of stimulus measures at the end of September, which spurred a market rally, Beijing has subsequently disappointed investors by not announcing further major steps.

Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 rallied 0.71% to end at 5,792.04 after hitting an all-time high, while the 30-stock Dow surged 431.63 points, or 1.03%, to reach 42,512 for a record close. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6% to end at 18,291.62.

Wall Street maintained its gains after the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, in which it cut by a half percentage point, revealed that a “substantial majority of participants” had favored reducing interest rates by the larger amount.

The strong trading day also came despite lingering fears of a broader war in the Middle East as Israel promises to launch a retaliatory strike against Iran.

Asia-Pacific markets: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Stock futures are little changed as September consumer inflation report looms: Live updates

Updated Thu, Oct 10 2024 7:18 PM EDT

U.S. stock futures were little changed Wednesday night as investors looked ahead to the release of September’s consumer price index report.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded near the flatline. S&P 500 futures inched lower by 0.03%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.04%.

The S&P 500 and Dow ended Wednesday’s session with fresh record closes. The broad market index rose 0.71%, also registering an all-time high during trading, while the 30-stock Dow jumped more than 400 points, or 1%. Big technology stocks were notable gainers in the rally, lifting the Nasdaq Composite to a 0.6% advance.

Investors will closely watch September’s CPI report due Thursday morning, looking for further signs that inflation is on a cooling trend. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate a 0.1% increase on a monthly basis, and a 2.3% advance over the prior 12 months.

The result will also inform the Federal Reserve’s next steps on policy at its November meeting. Fed funds futures trading data suggests a roughly 70% likelihood of a quarter-point cut, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, thinks a 50 basis point cut is “off the table,” and the question is now whether the Fed will trim rates by 25 basis points or hold steady in November. “Base case for us is that they’re able to cut,” she said Wednesday on “Power Lunch.” “Tomorrow’s CPI should be supportive of that, something with core CPI coming in at 0.3%.” Economists polled by Dow Jones see core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rising by 0.2% on a monthly basis.

Other economic releases due on Thursday morning include weekly initial jobless claims.

Wall Street will also be looking toward Delta Air Lines’ quarterly earnings release Thursday before the bell.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

In other news.

Fed officials were divided on whether to cut rates by half a point in September, minutes show

Published Wed, Oct 9 2024 2:00 PM EDT

WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve officials at their September meeting agreed to cut interest rates but were unsure how aggressive to get, ultimately deciding on a half percentage point move in an effort to balance confidence on inflation with worries over the labor market, according to minutes released Wednesday.

The meeting summary detailed reasons that policymakers decided to approve a jumbo rate cut of 50 basis points for the first time in more than four years, and showed members divided over the economic outlook.

Some officials hoped for a smaller, quarter percentage point reduction as they sought assurance that inflation was moving sustainably lower and were less worried about the jobs picture.

Ultimately, only one Federal Open Market Committee member, Governor Michelle Bowman, voted against the half-point cut, saying she would have preferred a quarter point. But the minutes indicated that others also favored a smaller move. It was the first time a governor had dissented on an interest rate vote since 2005 for a Fed known for its unity on monetary policy.

“Some participants observed that they would have preferred a 25 basis point reduction of the target range at this meeting, and a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision,” the minutes stated.

“Several participants noted that a 25 basis point reduction would be in line with a gradual path of policy normalization that would allow policymakers time to assess the degree of policy restrictiveness as the economy evolved,” the document added. “A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization.”

More

Fed officials were divided on whether to cut rates by half a point in September, minutes show (cnbc.com)

China’s Golden Week holiday signals persistent consumer caution

Published Wed, Oct 9 2024 1:17 AM EDT

BEIJING — China’s Golden Week holiday affirmed a trend in more cautious spending, while consumers put greater emphasis on experiences.

The seven-day public holiday that ended Monday recorded about 2% less spending per domestic trip than the pre-pandemic level, according to Goldman Sachs analysis published Tuesday.

“Low tourism spending per head and subdued services prices highlighted still weak domestic demand and continued consumption downgrading,” the analysts said.

The decline was an improvement from a gap of more than 10% during holidays in the spring, the Goldman report said.

The Golden Week holiday in China commemorates the founding of the People’s Republic of China on Oct. 1. It is the last public holiday of the year for the country.

Nearly one-fifth of bookings on Trip.com for the holiday came from users ages 20 to 25, making them the main consumer group, the company said. It noted more than 90 concerts were held during the holiday, and that daily growth in orders for performances and exhibitions grew by an average of more than 80% during the period.

However, a lack of blockbusters resulted in a drop in box office earnings, to 2.1 billion yuan ($300 million) this year, from 2.7 billion yuan last year, according to state media, citing the China Film Administration.

Consumers were also more spontaneous.

Trip.com said nearly 30% of travelers booked travel on the same day, or one day in advance, a 6 percentage point increase from last year. The average number of days customers booked in advance fell to 6 days this year, down from 6.8 days last year, the company said.

The holiday this year followed a flurry of policy announcements and promises, and a stock market surge. Consumer spending in China has been lackluster since the pandemic due to uncertainty about future income and economic growth.

“People become more cautious with spending. Also they opt for more affordable options of travel and affordable locations,” Kenneth Chow, principal at Oliver Wyman, told CNBC on Wednesday.

More

China's Golden Week holiday signals persistent consumer caution (cnbc.com)

Germany’s economy goes from bad to worse

Economy Minister Robert Habeck confirms that GDP is set to contract for the second year in a row.

October 9, 2024 5:44 pm CET

BERLIN — German Economy Minister Robert Habeck confirmed on Wednesday that the country's gross domestic product is set to shrink for the second year in a row, and blamed the economy’s deepening weakness on “failures of recent decades.”

The German government now expects the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent this year, having previously projected growth of 0.3 percent, Habeck told reporters.

“The upturn is therefore being delayed once again, but now mainly not because of cyclical factors that have become worse or developed more slowly, but because structural factors are making it so much more difficult.”

While German voters have fixated on migration and the war in Ukraine in recent elections, the country’s growing economic difficulties are likely to become a key issue ahead of a federal election scheduled less than a year from now.

Habeck attributed Germany’s economic weakness not to the policies of the three-party ruling coalition, but rather to long-running structural problems that have been “embedded” in the economy for decades — namely a lack of investment in infrastructure and a dearth of skilled labor.

Germany’s economy has been struggling for years, but news in September that carmaker Volkswagen was considering closing domestic plants for the first time ever drove home to many Germans the extent of the country’s troubles. That development was followed by the decision of chipmaker Intel to suspend plans to build a €30 billion plant in Germany.

But Berlin's response has been constrained by coalition squabbling and by a constitutional debt brake that limits the federal deficit to 0.35 percent of GDP except in times of emergency, restricting the government’s options for a meaningful economic stimulus.

Members of the left-leaning parties in the coalition — the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and Habeck’s Greens — favor loosening strict spending rules, while the fiscally conservative Free Democrats want those rules to be respected. In his comments Wednesday, Habeck appeared to acknowledge that infighting within his government and within the EU wasn’t helping.

“The political debate in Germany and Europe does not currently provide companies, and perhaps also consumers, with a clear compass as to where the journey is heading,” he said.

Habeck predicted that growth would resume next year, with the government projecting 1.1 percent growth in 2025 and 1.6 percent in 2026.

That expansion would come with the help of the government's “growth initiative,” he argued, which consists of more than 40 measures to boost the economy, including tax breaks for companies and cutting red tape.

But the opposition doesn't share that sanguine outlook, blaming the country’s economic problems on government energy and regulation policies.

“There is a threat of a downward spiral, that we will remain in this difficult economic situation over the coming years,” said Carsten Linnemann, a leader of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), in parliament following Habeck’s prognosis.

The country, he added, needs an ambitious economic agenda that “creates freedom and puts performance back in the foreground.”

Germany’s economy goes from bad to worse – POLITICO

There is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world.

John Maynard Keynes.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Germany's prolonged recession makes firms takeover targets

9 October 2024

The situation of the German economy isn't rosy at the moment, and the future is not looking good either. German daily newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung reported last weekend that the German Ministry of Economic Affairs is anticipating another year of recession, with gross domestic product (GDP) expected to shrink by 0.2% in 2024.

Economy Minister Robert Habeck is set to unveil the government's forecast on Wednesday and is expected to explain why the outlook for the German economy that was supposed to expand by 0.3% this year has deteriorated further.

Data coming out of German businesses is likely to add to his woes as they show little reason to believe that the economy will recover any time soon.

In September, the business climate index compiled by the Munich-based ifo Institute saw its fourth consecutive decline, with ifo President Clemens Fuest saying the economy is "under increasing pressure." A majority of the company managers polled by ifo said they are dissatisfied with their current situation, and pessimistic about the outlook for their business.

The grim economic situation has led DZ Bank economist Christoph Swonke to describe Germany as the "new problem child of the eurozone."

Corporate vultures are circling

Amid falling sales and revenues, businesses often resort to stronger partners to help them overcome their difficulties.

Germany's national railway operator, Deutsche Bahn, is a recent case in point. The company has agreed to sell its profitable logistics subsidiary, Schenker, to its Danish rival DSV for about €14 billion ($15.3 billion). The money could provide a much-needed financial boost to the struggling state-owned company which is notorious for frequent delays.

Also hotly tipped for a foreign takeover is Commerzbank. Germany's second-largest private lender was bailed out by the German government after the 2008/2009 financial crisis, with the state still holding a 12% stake in the bank. Italian bank UniCredit has set its sights on a full takeover of Commerzbank, after clandestinely boosting its effective stake to 21% in September in what industry officials believe could become a so-called hostile takeover.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde told the European Parliament on Monday (October 7) that cross-border banking mergers in Europe were "desirable" for European banks to be able to compete "at the scale, the depth and at the range" with other banks around the world.

In the meantime, more and more companies are leaving the country altogether, or at least investing more in their factories abroad than in their domestic bases in Germany. Chemical giant BASF, for example, is building a factory worth €10 billion ($10.9 billion) in China. And mid-sized energy service provider Techem was sold by its Swiss owners to the US asset manager TPG.

More

Germany's prolonged recession makes firms takeover targets (msn.com)

EU recession crisis as 'volatile cocktail' threatens to 'wreak havoc on markets’

The Middle East crisis is threatening to unleash an "an economic tsunami" and "oil market havoc", warned one industry expert.

13:51, Tue, Oct 8, 2024 | UPDATED: 13:55, Tue, Oct 8, 2024

 

The prospect of rocketing oil prices represents a “volatile cocktail” that could trigger a Europe-wide recession, economists have warned.

Worries over tensions in the Middle East has pushed oil prices sharply higher yesterday as the world waits to see how Israel will respond to an October 1 missile attack by Iran.

After slight losses earlier in the day, U.S. benchmark crude oil was up $1.26 at $75.64 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, picked up $1.09 to $79.14 per barrel.

Gabriel McKeown, Head of Macroeconomics at Sad Rabbit Investments commented: "The spectre of rising oil prices threatens to reignite inflationary pressures for Western economies, just as central banks were beginning to declare victory in their battle against surging prices.

"An economic tsunami looms as the Middle East crisis threatens to unleash oil market havoc that could send ripples through the global economy.”

The escalating conflict had set the stage for what Mr McKeown called "a volatile cocktail of surging prices and market uncertainty” and the real possibility of oil priced at $100 a barrel (£76.28).

He continued: "The recent flare-up in tensions has already sent prices soaring, and the VIX index, Wall Street's 'fear gauge', has spiked, reinforcing the uncertainty.

"This reaction is not unfounded, as the potential for further escalation brings the Strait of Hormuz into focus, as any disruption to this crucial artery could severely affect the global oil supply.

"This could trigger a recession in European oil-importing countries, particularly those grappling with high inflation and sluggish growth."

David Belle, Founder and Trader at Fink Money said: "Right now, the chance for a 25bps cut from the Fed at its next meeting is at 87.4%, with yesterday's probability being 97.4%, which shows the market is indeed sensitive to this fluctuation.

"How sticky will this be? Like any squeeze on price, it can run out of fuel just as quickly as it started, especially if attitudes soften a touch on Iranian energy strikes by Israel.

"But that's not guaranteed in what is a rapidly escalating crisis."

More

EU recession crisis as 'volatile cocktail' to 'wreak havoc' | World | News | Express.co.uk

New Zealand’s Recession Worries Prompt Big Rate Cut

9 October 2024

SYDNEY—New Zealand’s central bank cut interest rates by an outsized half a percentage point, moving to support an economy that has slipped in and out of recession while keeping up with counterparts such as the Federal Reserve that are also loosening policy aggressively.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to lower the official cash rate to 4.75% on Wednesday shows how inflation is quickly falling behind economic growth as a top concern of policymakers. Unlike many countries that navigated the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic without slipping into recession, New Zealand has experienced crippling contractions in activity for close to two years.

Headwinds to growth have included lackluster demand from China, which is one of New Zealand’s top trading partners. Consumers have remained skittish after inflation ran hot and housing costs increased, although these pressures have eased recently, paving the way for the RBNZ to cut rates.

“Members agreed that increasing excess capacity is leading to lower inflationary pressure in the New Zealand economy,” the RBNZ said. “Economic growth is weak, in part because of low productivity growth, but mostly due to weak consumer spending and business investment.”

The hefty cut in the official cash rate comes as central banks in the U.S., Canada and Europe have stepped up moves to revive growth after years of battling the worst outbreak of inflation since the 1980s.

The RBNZ also listed a number of geopolitical risks for the economy that included the conflict in the Middle East, and the slowdown in China.

It also cited the coming U.S. Presidential elections pointing at potential risks around government spending and global trade.

“Uncertainty about the effectiveness of recent policy actions in China also posed downside risks to New Zealand’s export growth, as well as export and import prices,” the RBNZ said.

“Heightened uncertainty around the U.S. elections, and the implications for U.S. trade and fiscal policies, could also be significant for international financial markets and global economic activity,” it added.

The RBNZ added 525 basis points to the official cash rate to tame price pressures during the pandemic, with officials unusually explicit that a recession was a price worth paying if it slowed aggregate demand quickly.

Now, economists expect the RBNZ will follow up this month’s cut to interest rates with another outsized reduction in November as inflation appears to no longer be a major concern. Market pricing suggests cuts will extend deep into next year, with the official cash rate tumbling to 3% by August.

“Economic data suggests the need to return policy settings to neutral quickly,” said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank. “The current economic environment remains depressed and requires rate relief.”

The RBNZ’s cash rate could still be around 200 basis points above what economists refer to as a neutral rate even after Wednesday’s outsized reduction, Kerr said. “So in order to remove the restrictiveness of current policy settings, the RBNZ should accelerate their cuts,” he said.

New Zealand’s Recession Worries Prompt Big Rate Cut (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

COVID-19 Damages A Major Brain “Control Center”, Ultra-Powerful MRI Scans Reveal

8 October 2024

Super-powered brain scans are giving scientists a deeper look at how COVID-19 affects the brain, and the findings could explain many of the lasting symptoms that some patients experience. New data shows that COVID can damage the brainstem, a vital control center for all sorts of bodily functions – from breathing to blood pressure.

“Things happening in and around the brainstem are vital for quality of life, but it had been impossible to scan the inflammation of the brainstem nuclei in living people, because of their tiny size and difficult position,” explained first author Dr Catarina Rua of the University of Cambridge, in a statement. “Usually, scientists only get a good look at the brainstem during post-mortem examinations.”

Indeed, autopsies conducted in the early days of the pandemic suggested that the brainstem, the interface between the brain and spinal cord, could be involved in cases of severe COVID-19. Evidence of inflammation was seen, but to get a closer look at what is going on in living people, the usual brain scanners you find in hospitals just won’t cut the mustard.

The magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) machines that are normally used for diagnosing diseases operate with a magnetic field strength of 1.5 or 3 Tesla (T). As a general rule, the stronger the magnet the better the image quality. Some facilities are pushing ahead with plans to build ever more powerful machines, but it’s still very rare to have access to anything above 3T for clinical use.

The team behind the new study, however, were able to benefit from two 7T scanners, housed at the Universities of Cambridge and Oxford. This extra power meant they could see details of inflammatory processes in multiple parts of the brainstem.

The 31 patients included in the study had all been hospitalized with COVID-19 towards the beginning of the pandemic, before vaccines were available. Like many patients admitted to hospital with the infection at the time, they commonly reported lingering symptoms like breathlessness, fatigue, and chest pain.

More

COVID-19 Damages A Major Brain “Control Center”, Ultra-Powerful MRI Scans Reveal (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Platform combines graphene oxide with antibodies to enhance CAR-T cell therapy

October 8, 2024

Imagine a world where your own immune cells are transformed into cancer-fighting superheroes. This is the promise of CAR-T cell therapy, a groundbreaking treatment that's already saving lives.

In this therapy, patients' own immune cells are collected, genetically engineered so that they specifically target cancer cells, then returned to the body. The result is a potent new option for battling blood cancers. However, as with any superhero journey, the process of harnessing this incredible power comes with its own set of challenges.

One such hurdle: Current methods for activating T cells don't resemble closely enough the natural environment in which they interact with another key population of immune cells—a connection crucial for activating T cells and ramping up their ability to fight cancer.

In a Nature Nanotechnology study, a UCLA team has unveiled a powerful tool to overcome this limitation. Their new platform combines a flexible material called graphene oxide with antibodies to closely mimic the natural interactions between immune cells. The investigators found that this mimicry shows a high capacity for stimulating T cells to reproduce, while preserving their versatility and potency.

The advance could make CAR-T cell therapy more effective and accessible, while also driving progress for other emerging treatments.

"Our interface bridges the gap between the laboratory and actual conditions inside the body, allowing us to gain insights much more relevant to real-world biological processes," said co-corresponding author Yu Huang, the Traugott and Dorothea Frederking Professor of Engineering at the UCLA Samueli School of Engineering and a member of the California NanoSystems Institute at UCLA (CNSI).

"Beyond T cell therapies, we can apply this technology to a variety of fields, including tissue engineering and regenerative medicine."

The researchers anchored two specific antibodies onto graphene oxide. Over 12 days, their platform facilitated a 100-fold-plus increase in T cell expansion in a culture of blood cells. The technology also enhanced the efficiency of engineering immune cells, leading to a five-fold increase in CAR-T cell production compared to the standard process.

The team also identified several biochemical pathways crucial for T cell signaling and function that were activated by their technology, enabling the increase in growth and efficiency.

Schematics and electron microscopy images show how UCLA technology closely mimics important natural interactions between the T cell and another key type of immune cell, action that may enhance a breakthrough treatment for blood cancers.

More

Platform combines graphene oxide with antibodies to enhance CAR-T cell therapy (msn.com)

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Government machinery has been described as a marvelous labor saving device which enables ten men to do the work of one.

John Maynard Keynes.