Friday, 4 October 2024

US Port Strike Over. A Biden Oil Price Spike Coming? US Jobs Data Due.

Baltic Dry Index. 1941 -37          Brent Crude  77.49

Spot Gold 2665                US 2 Year Yield 3.70 +0.07

When the Liberals said they were going to create a million new jobs, I didn't think they were all going to be tax collectors.

Harry S. Truman.

For a second day in a row, we open with something other than stock casino news.  The US east coast port strike is over for now, but at what inflationary cost to US consumers? Will it resume in mid-January once the US election is over?

Port strike ends as workers agree to tentative deal on wages and contract extension

Published Thu, Oct 3 2024 6:43 PM EDT

A major union for U.S. dockworkers and the United States Maritime Alliance agreed on Thursday to a tentative deal on wages and have extended their existing contract through Jan. 15 to provide time to negotiate a new contract.

The move ends a strike that had snarled East Coast and Gulf Coast ports since the beginning of the week and threatened U.S. supply of fruits, automobiles, and other goods.

“The International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance, Ltd. have reached a tentative agreement on wages and have agreed to extend the Master Contract until January 15, 2025 to return to the bargaining table to negotiate all other outstanding issues,” The International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance said in a joint statement.

During the week, the strike had already started to stress the U.S. supply chain. Thousands of containers had been dumped at the wrong ports, and billions of dollars in goods were anchored offshore because ports were not operational, CNBC previously reportedShipping costs had already started to rise.

The strike was the first by the ILA since 1977, and it impacted operations at 14 different ports. About 50,000 of the union’s 85,000 members were on strike this week. In a statement on Tuesday, ILA President Harold Daggett said the union was asking for an increase of $5 per hour for each year of the six-year contract.

ILU wages will increase 61.5% over six years under the tentative agreement, sources told CNBC’s Lori Ann LaRocco. A central conflict over port automation is still under negotiation.

Port strike ends: Workers agree to tentative deal on wages and contract extension (cnbc.com)

Now back to those stock casinos trading in the exosphere, waiting on today’s US jobs numbers and heading for a comeuppance.

Hong Kong markets resume rally as investors weigh China stimulus, oil gains

Published Thu, Oct 3 2024 7:50 PM EDT

SINGAPORE — Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Friday following losses on Wall Street, with concerns over Middle East tensions keeping investors on edge in the run up to September’s U.S. payrolls report.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is up over 2%, resuming a rally after slipping 1% in its first hour of trade.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.46%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.34%, while the broad-based Topix inched up 0.41%. South Korea’s Kospi was trading 0.19% higher, while the Kosdaq rose 0.74%.

Markets in mainland China will reopen on Oct. 8. Chinese stocks had been on a tear after authorities announced a slew of support measures last week.

October trading has had a shaky start as rising tensions in the Middle East weigh on investor sentiment. Following a decline in stocks on Tuesday due to Iran’s missile strike on Israel, investors are bracing for more unpredictability as Israel begins a ground operation in Lebanon.

U.S. crude futures rose around 5% overnight and ticked higher again on Friday morning on concerns that Israel could strike Iran’s oil industry in retaliation for Tehran’s missile attack this week. U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday commented on a possible Israel retaliation against Iran: “We’re discussing that. I think that would be a little — anyway.” 

The Reserve Bank of India likely intervened in the non-deliverable forwards market ahead of Friday’s opening of the local spot forex market to bolster the rupee, which is hovering near its all-time low, Reuters reported. On Thursday, the India rupee slipped for a fourth straight session.

The India rupee is currently trading at 83.96 against the dollar, and the Nifty 50 is 0.27% lower.

Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 184.93 points, or 0.44%, to end at 42,011.59. The S&P 500 lost 0.17% to close at 5,699.94. The Nasdaq Composite ended the day off 0.04% at 17,918.48 as a rally of more than 3% in Nvidia capped downside pressure.

Asia-Pacific stock market today updates (cnbc.com)

Finally, in other news, business isn’t booming in fast food USA. Is another hurricane headed to the southeast USA? Hopefully/probably not. Another EV fire. An oil price spike coming?

Pizza Hut may close 127 restaurants after owner puts them up for sale

October 3, 2024

A bankrupt Pizza Hut franchise is selling all 127 of its stores across five US states, in the latest wave of possible closures for the popular fast food chain.

EYM Pizza L.P. is selling its stores in Illinois, Indiana, Georgia, South Carolina and Wisconsin as part of its plan to restructure.

It comes after EYM Pizza shuttered more than 15 of its restaurants in Indiana and Ohio.

The company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the Eastern District of Texas in July.

Pizza Hut sued EYM Pizza for not meeting deadlines to pay royalties despite being granted a forbearance period last year that ended in February of this year.

EYM Pizza did not immediately respond to a Metro request for comment and for a list of the exact locations that could close.

It has engaged National Franchise Sales (NFS) to manage the sale of its Pizza Hut empire. NFS is identifying qualified buyers and facilitating sales of the restaurants to help creditors recover the most they can and to map a future for the involved stores.

‘National Franchise Sales is dedicated to navigating this challenging period with EYM Pizza L.P. and its affiliates,’ stated Alan Gallup, who is lead advisor for the NFS asset recovery team.

‘Our goal is to ensure a smooth transition and maximize value for all parties impacted by this process.’

EYM Pizza had operated its Pizza Hut stores since 2015. It was founded in 2008 by Eduardo Diaz, the former McDonald’s Mexico president.

It is the latest in a string of restaurant bankruptcies in the US. The chains that have filed for bankruptcy since April include Red Lobster, Rubio’s Coastal Grill, Sticky’s, Tijuana Flats, Arby’s franchisee Miracle Restaurant Group and One Table Restaurants.

As of June, Pizza Hut operated more than 6,700 locations across the country, but that represents a shrinking number. The chain shuttered 300 of its locations in 2020 and halted its expansion plans during the coronavirus pandemic.

Pizza Hut may close 127 restaurants after owner puts them up for sale (msn.com)

US weather: America braces for 'major' superstorm as Hurricane Kirk strikes

October 3, 2024

America is on alert for another ‘major’ superstorm as Hurricane Kirk gathers pace to join the assault.

Just days after Hurricane Helene left a 100-billion-dollar dent across eastern states, the eleventh storm of the season is flexing its muscles in the Atlantic.

Warm tropical waters that fed Helene up to a Category-4 monster will fuel Kirk as it hurtles along a similar collision course.

Weather Channel meteorologist Robb Ellis said: “The tropics remain very active with a new tropical storm that we are tracking.

“Kirk is going to continue tracking to the west and is likely to become potentially even a major hurricane over the next several days.

“The next two names on the 2024 list are Lesley and Milton.”

Kirk was last night churning north-westwards towards the east coast of America with wind speeds of 75mph.

It is expected to strengthen through the coming days thanks to warmer than average Atlantic Ocean temperatures.

The storm may veer north-eastwards this weekend, dodging a full impact with land, according to the US National Hurricane Centre.

A spokesman said: “Kirk is expected to continue strengthening in the coming days.

“Global models forecast the deep-layer vertical wind shear to remain weak and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track during the next few days.

“Kirk is a large system and expected to grow larger as it moves northward, with tropical-storm-force winds extending far from the centre.”

More

US weather: America braces for 'major' superstorm as Hurricane Kirk strikes (msn.com)

Florida family home survives Hurricane Helene but burns to the ground after Tesla catches fire

3 October 2024

A family in Florida who survived Hurricane Helene say they narrowly managed to escape their home after their Tesla car ignited in the middle of the night.

The Hodges family, who live in Sarasota on the Siesta Key, had a few inches of water flood their home as a result of Hurricane Helene.

Despite coming out of the storm relatively unscathed, their lives were soon in danger once again.

The family had unplugged and elevated their Tesla Model X Plaid, which was parked in their garage, after the flooding.

While most of the household was asleep, two grandchildren heard popping sounds coming from the garage at around midnight.

According to Fox 13, the family described the electric vehicle as a “fireball” when they went to check on the noise.

Footage from the family’s home security cameras showed the electric car catching fire in less than a minute after a blast occurring.

Lisa Hodges told Reuters: “I’m just glad we’re alive, but everything I’ve…We’ve been married 38 years and everything we put into that house.”

“We built it for our family and it’s all gone,” she said.

While the Sarasota County Fire Department ensured the family of nine and their two dogs were all evacuated safely, it took only 15 minutes for the grandchildren’s bedrooms to collapse.

This was quickly followed by the rest of the house, which they had just moved into following three years of renovation.

The Hodges say they were not aware such a small amount of water could lead to their car igniting and causing a fire.

This incident comes days after officials warned that electric vehicles, including cars, golf carts and scooters with lithium-ion batteries, could catch fire if flooded with saltwater from Hurricane Helene.

Tom Barth from the National Transportation Safety Board said: “If the saltwater is able to bridge the gap between the positive and negative terminals of battery, then it can cause a short circuit.”

Tesla advises that if a battery has been submerged in saltwater, it should be treated in the same way as an accident and inspected before trying to start it again.

Florida family home survives Hurricane Helene but burns to the ground after Tesla catches fire (msn.com)

U.S. crude oil jumps as Biden comments on possible Israel retaliation against Iran

Published Thu, Oct 3 2024 8:43 AM EDT

U.S. crude oil prices rose about 5% on Thursday, posting a third consecutive session of gains on fears that Israel could strike Iran’s oil industry in retaliation for Tehran’s ballistic missile attack this week.

President Joe Biden was asked by reporters Thursday morning whether the U.S. would support an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities. Biden said: “We’re discussing that. I think that would be a little – anyway.” The president added that “there’s nothing going to happen today.”

CNBC has reached out to the White House for comment.

Biden’s comments were the catalyst that moved prices higher, said Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities. “Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are probably at their highest levels since the Gulf War,” Ghali told CNBC.

The U.S. benchmark surged 5.5% earlier in the session to an intraday high of $73.99 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate is ahead about 8% this week, on pace for its best weekly gain since March 2023.

More

Crude oil prices today: WTI rises as Biden comments on Middle East risk (cnbc.com)

Goldman Sachs says crude could spike by $20 on Iran oil shock

Published Fri, Oct 4 2024 12:15 AM EDT

Oil prices could shoot up $20 per barrel if Iranian production sees a hit resulting from Israeli retaliation, according to Goldman Sachs.

U.S. crude futures rose around 5% on Thursday and ticked higher again Friday morning on concerns that Israel could strike Iran’s oil industry in retaliation for Tehran’s missile attack this week.

It is estimated that “if you were to see a sustained 1 million barrels per day drop in Iranian production, that you would see a peak boost to oil prices next year of around $20 per barrel,” Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs’ co-head of global commodities research, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Friday.

This is under the assumption that oil cartel OPEC+ refrains from responding by increasing production, Struyven said.

Should key OPEC+ members such as Saudi Arabia and UAE offset some of the production losses, oil markets could see a smaller boost of slightly less than $10 barrel, he added.

Since the Israel-Hamas armed conflict began on October 7 of last year, there had been limited disruptions to the oil market, with prices remaining under pressure due to increased production from the U.S. and sluggish demand from China.

However, the sentiment could be shifting this week. U.S. crude oil prices just saw a third consecutive session of gains after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel, heightening tensions in the region. In recent days, industry watchers have sounded the alarm, warning of a real threat to supply.

Iran, which is a member of OPEC, is a key player in the global oil market. It produces almost four million barrels of oil per day, and an estimated 4% of the world’s supply could be at risk if Iran’s oil infrastructure becomes a target for Israel as the latter considers a countermove. 

Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee, raised the potential of Iran’s Kharg Island, which is responsible for 90% of the country’s crude exports, becoming a target.

“The bigger concern, “is this the kind of a much more imminent beginning of a wider conflagration of the conflict which could impact transit through the Strait of Hormuz,” he added.

If Israel hits Iran’s oil industry, supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could become of concern, other analysts echoed.

Iran has previously threatened to disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz if its oil sector is impacted.

More

Goldman Sachs says crude could spike by $20 on Iran oil shock (cnbc.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Rice Plunges the Most in 16 Years After India Eases Export Curbs

2 October 2024

(Bloomberg) -- Rice prices tumbled the most in more than 16 years in Asia as concerns over supply eased after India relaxed some export restrictions.

Thai white rice 5% broken — an Asian benchmark — plunged about 11% to $509 a ton on Wednesday, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association. That was the biggest decline in data compiled since May 2008, and extended a prolonged slide in prices to the lowest level in more than 15 months.

Rice rallied last year after top shipper India implemented export restrictions to contain local prices ahead of an election. The Asian nation loosened some curbs following recent national polls, a move that could help ease a domestic glut and cut import costs for countries such as Indonesia and Senegal.

The grain is vital to the diets of billions and contributes as much as 60% of the total calorie intake for people in parts of Southeast Asia and Africa. While the price of rice has cooled, the costs of other food staples are rising as extreme weather threatens harvests around the world.

Rice Plunges the Most in 16 Years After India Eases Export Curbs (yahoo.com)

Firms must ‘prepare’ for shocks to global financial markets, Bank warns

2 October 2024

lobal financial markets are vulnerable to shocks following a “spike in volatility” over the summer, the Bank of England has warned.

But the UK banking system remains strong enough to weather tougher economic conditions and support households and businesses, the Bank’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) said in its latest report.

Risks to UK financial stability are broadly unchanged since the last report in June, the FPC found.

But, on a global scale, uncertainty about the geopolitical environment and the outlook for the economy remains elevated.

The review comes amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, with Israel this week launching ground offensives in Lebanon.

The FPC said there was a “short-lived spike in volatility and falls in equity indices across global financial markets in early August”.

It was driven by disappointing news including weaker-than-expected jobs data in the US and financial results from artificial intelligence-focused technology giants.

This was followed by the release of positive macroeconomic news, which prompted the majority of asset prices to quickly return to “stretched” levels afterwards.

“Markets remain susceptible to a sharp correction, which could affect the cost and availability of credit to UK households and businesses, with investors sensitive to short-term developments in a challenging global risk environment,” the report said.

Businesses and banks need to be “prepared” for “severe but plausible stresses”, it warned.

Meanwhile, the committee said mortgage-holders continue to be resilient to higher interest rates, with home loan deals starting to come down in recent months.

But it flagged that some lower-income households and renters remain under pressure.

About a third of mortgage-holders have not yet refinanced on to higher interest rates.

Furthermore, while UK businesses have also shown to be resilient to worsening economic conditions, there are “pockets of vulnerability” including among private equity-backed firms and SMEs.

Firms must ‘prepare’ for shocks to global financial markets, Bank warns (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

NHS rolls out flu and Covid vaccines amid ‘tripledemic’ fears

3 October 2024

People are being warned that “the threat of winter viruses is all too real” as the NHS rolls out flu and Covid-19 vaccines.

Appointments opened last week for those eligible, including older people, care home residents and people with health conditions, with jabs set to be given from Thursday, 3 October.

Some 11 million people have been invited to come forward for protection, NHS England said.

The latest roll-out comes after health officials raised concerns about a fall in the uptake of the flu vaccine after it emerged the illness had caused at least 18,000 deaths in the last two years.

With new figures showing thousands of deaths associated with Covid and flu in recent years, it is clear that the threat of winter viruses is all too real, and it is vital that anyone eligible takes up the offer to get vaccinated

Steve Russell, NHS England

According to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) there was a drop in people having the jab across all eligible groups in England last year.

A little over four in 10 (41.4 per cent) people in clinical risk groups were vaccinated last winter compared with 49.1 per cent in the previous year, while the number of pregnant women jabbed fell to 32.1 per cent from 35 per cent and uptake among two and three-year-olds was around 44 per cent, down from 42.3 per cent and 45.1 per cent respectively.

Steve Russell, national director for vaccinations and screening at NHS England, said: “With new figures showing thousands of deaths associated with Covid and flu in recent years, it is clear that the threat of winter viruses is all too real, and it is vital that anyone eligible takes up the offer to get vaccinated.

“There are many slots still available with GP practices, pharmacies and other NHS teams offering quick and easy appointments, so if you have not booked yet then please do using the NHS website, NHS App, or by calling 119 – it could keep you out of hospital this winter.”

Children and pregnant women started getting vaccinated against flu on 1 September.

More

NHS rolls out flu and Covid vaccines amid ‘tripledemic’ fears (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

US military checks out aircraft that can take off on sub-100-m runways

By David Szondy  October 02, 2024

Electra has shown the extreme takeoff and landing capabilities of its hybrid-electric Short Takeoff and Landing (eSTOL) Ultra Short prototype aircraft off to the US Military. The aircraft is designed to operate from areas without proper airfields.

The effects of Hurricane Helene, which has devastated and cut off large areas of North Carolina, highlights the necessity for aircraft that can land and take off in forward areas that might not have much more than a postage stamp for a runway. Developed in partnership with the US Air Force, the Ultra Short is designed to operate in the sort of areas usually reserved for helicopters, but more efficiently, at lower cost, and without a helicopter pilot.

The Ultra Short looks somewhat like a conventional private plane with a top-mounted wing, except that the wing has very large flaps for extra lift on take off and is powered by eight electric motors mounted to concentrate the back draft from the airflow over the wings.

To cut to the chase, the Ultra Short can operate from fields measuring 300 x 100 ft (91 x 30 m) and these don't even need the proper infrastructure. A pasture or a football field will do nicely.

It's not a new concept. STOL aircraft have been around for over a century, with some looking like flying Venetian blinds and others like flying pancakes. What Electra has done is put a new spin on things with its hybrid electric propulsion system.

Using a lithium battery and a turbine generator, the Ultra Short can achieve longer ranges than pure electrics by using the generator to recharge the batteries or run the motors directly, giving it a cruising speed of about 200 mph (322 km/h) and a range around 500 miles (805 km) with a 45-minute reserve. It can also carry out helicopter-like missions with one-third of the fuel consumption.

During the recent demonstration flight conducted by Electra Chief Test Pilot Cody Allee the Ultra Short made a series of take offs and landings from grass fields at Marine Corps Air Facility Quantico and Felker Army Airfield at Joint Base Langley-Eustis in Virginia. The aircraft flew in tight 150-ft (46-m) turns at low speeds and low altitudes, which is important in military flights where survivability is a major factor.

In addition, the company demonstrated how the plane can be used as a mobile power station by running the pre-flight presentation equipment and sound system that were powered directly from the airplane. According to Electra, the system can provide over 600 kW of continuous power and more than 1 MW for short bursts,

"These flight demonstrations mark a significant milestone for Electra as we show the capabilities of the technology in the real-world," said JP Stewart, Vice President and General Manager of Electra. "Our Ultra Short aircraft make it possible to operate from austere locations previously only reachable by helicopters, with 70% lower costs and very quiet operations. We're excited to collaborate with our government partners to deliver a new level of capability and operational energy efficiency that aligns with the future of defense logistics and mobility."

Source: Electra

US military checks out aircraft that can take off on sub-100-m runways (newatlas.com)

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and a worrying weekend at that. Will Israel attack Iran this weekend and if so, what impact will it have on oil prices?  When will the Boeing strike end?  What will ending the US east coast port strike cost? Will the EU enter recession or stagflation? Has it already?  What will coming higher taxes in France, the UK and now Italy do to Europe’s already slowing economy? How much voter bribery will take place in the final four weeks of the US elections? Have a great weekend everyone.

I never did give anybody hell. I just told the truth and they thought it was hell.

Harry S. Truman.


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