Baltic Dry Index. 1814 +05 Brent Crude 75.09
Spot Gold 2642 US 2 Year Yield 3.95 Fri.
A Parliament is nothing less than a big meeting of more or less idle people.
Walter Bagehot.
It’s not quite the return of the everything bubble in the stock casinos, but it’s close. The everything but Tesla bubble perhaps.
With the US central bank now rooting for a Democrat win in just about three week’s time, what more can the deep state do to block Trump?
In reality, I don’t think it matters much who wins on November 5th. Each candidate are proposing economic fantasy policies, only too likely to wreck the US economy and with it the global economy.
But with Uncle Scam already 35.7 trillion dollars in debt on a GDP of only 28.7 trillion dollars, the next four years promise four years of economic pain and a new global economy reality.
From America to Britain to the EU to China, the old economic reality was replaced by a massive debt binge 2008-2024. That debt binge is about to come to an unpleasant end 2025-2030.
Dow adds 200 points for first close above 43,000;
S&P 500 hits another all-time high: Live updates
Updated Mon, Oct 14 2024 5:01 PM EDT
The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose
to fresh records Monday as investors awaited the next batch of key corporate
earnings.
The broad market index climbed 0.77% to
5,859.85, while the 30-stock Dow advanced 201.36 points to 43,065.22. Both
averages hit all-time highs and closed at records, with the Dow ending the
session above the 43,000 mark for the first time. The Nasdaq Composite added
0.87%, closing at 18,502.69.
McDonald’s, UnitedHealth Group and Apple led the Dow higher.
Technology continued its upward run and was the best-performing sector in the
S&P.
Bank
of America, Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson report
their latest results on Tuesday, while Morgan Stanley and United Airlines are set to
release results Wednesday. Walgreens
Boots Alliance, Netflix and Procter & Gamble are also
scheduled to post earnings this week.
Those reports will come after JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo kicked off the
third-quarter earnings season on a high note. The early signs of a recovery in
banking profits helped push the broader market to all-time highs at the end of
last week. The S&P 500 closed above 5,800 for the first time on Friday,
while the blue-chip Dow also reached an all-time high.
So far, 30 S&P 500 companies have
posted results, beating the earnings consensus by about 5% on average,
according to Bank of America. That is better than the 3% beat this time last
quarter. Still, Bernstein thinks this quarter’s year-over-year earnings per
share growth rate will come in “much lower” than last quarter’s.
Despite the market climbing to new
all-time highs, investors remain anxious against a backdrop of a closely
contested presidential election in three weeks, suddenly rising Treasury
yields, uncertainty about the pace of Federal Reserve policy easing and escalating
geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
“All-time-highs sentiment is maybe a
little stretched, so it wouldn’t be surprising — especially in the last three
or four weeks before an election — to see some volatility return,” said Baird
investment strategist Ross Mayfield. “Over a three- or six-month-plus time
horizon we’re still pretty bullish just on the idea of lower rates for the
right reason, soft landing in the economy and earnings growth.”
The S&P 500 has gained almost 23% this
year, excluding reinvested dividends. The bull market recently turned
two years old, and the benchmark has rallied about 63% in total since
hitting a closing low in October 2022. Treasury yields have risen lately, too,
with the benchmark 10-year note yield, used to calculate everything from
mortgages to auto loans, topping 4.1% last week.
The bond market was closed on Monday for
Columbus Day.
Stock market news for October 14, 2024 (cnbc.com)
Japan’s Nikkei hits 3-month high as Chinese
markets continue to fluctuate
Updated Tue, Oct 15 2024 12:50 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Tuesday,
following gains on Wall Street that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average and
the S&P 500 reach
new record highs.
Investors assessed trade data out of South
Korea, which showed trade surplus surging to $6.7 billion in September, up
from $3.7 billion in August.
South Korea’s Kospi as well as the
small-cap Kosdaq were hovering near the flatline.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 was down 0.5%,
clawing back after falling more than 1% earlier in the day. Meanwhile, Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng index fell
1.3%.
China had gotten disappointing September trade data after markets closed Monday, with
exports rising 2.4% from a year ago and imports adding 0.3%, both sharply
missing expectations.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.3%,
while the broad-based Topix rose 1%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.8%.
On Wall Street, the broad market S&P
climbed 0.77% to 5,859.85, while the 30-stock Dow advanced 201.36 points to
43,065.22, ending the session above the 43,000 mark for the first time.
The Nasdaq Composite added
0.87%, closing at 18,502.69.
Asia markets live updates: South Korea trade data (cnbc.com)
European markets set for positive open, tracking
Wall Street higher
Updated Tue, Oct 15 2024 12:44 AM EDT
European stocks are heading for a positive
open Tuesday, with global markets broadly tracking gains on Wall Street.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected
to open 40 points higher at 8,324, Germany’s DAX up 86 points at 19,586,
France’s CAC up 27
points at 7,621 and Italy’s FTSE
MIB up 125 points at 34,653, according to data from IG.
The positive start for Europe comes after
gains on Wall Street that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average and
the S&P 500 reach
new intraday highs and record closes. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were
near flat Monday night.
Asia-Pacific
markets were mixed overnight, but regional
chip stocks rose, boosted by Nvidia’s share price rising 2.4%
Monday before closing at a record high.
In Europe Tuesday, earnings are set to
come from LVMH and Ericsson and data releases include the U.K.’s latest
unemployment figures, French inflation data and the Europe and German ZEW index
of economic sentiment.
European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
In other news, crude oil prices signal difficult times directly ahead. Will Israel now bomb Iran’s oil terminals to get the oil price rising again?
U.S. crude oil prices fall more than 2% after OPEC
cuts demand forecast again
Published Mon, Oct 14 2024 7:56 AM EDT Updated
Mon, Oct 14 2024 2:52 PM EDT
U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 2%
on Monday after OPEC cut its demand forecast for 2024 for the third time in a
row.
OPEC now sees demand growing by 1.9
million barrels per day in 2024, down from 2 million bpd in its previous
forecast, according to a report
released Monday. The group expects demand to grow by 1.6 million bpd in
2025, compared with 1.7 million bpd previously.
Here are Monday’s closing energy prices:
- West Texas Intermediate November
contract: $73.83 per barrel, down $1.73, or 2.29%. Year to date, U.S.
crude oil has gained about 3%.
- Brent December
contract: $77.46 per barrel, down $1.58, or 2%. Year to date, the global
benchmark has risen nearly 1%.
- RBOB Gasoline November
contract: $2.1086 per gallon, down 2%. Year to date, gasoline is
little changed.
- Natural Gas November
contract: $2.494 per thousand cubic feet, down 5.24%. Year to date, gas
has fallen nearly 1%.
China’s finance minister also disappointed
the market during a weekend press briefing. Traders have been banking on more
robust stimulus in China to boost the world’s second-largest economy. Soft
demand in China, the world’s largest crude importer, has weighed on the market
for months.
“China’s monetary stimulus measures failed
to stimulate and the weekend’s pledge from the finance ministry to borrow more
was long on cliches and phrases but short on reassuring and convincing
details,” Tamas Varga, analyst at oil broker PVM, told clients in a note.
The market, meanwhile, continues to
monitor the Middle East in anticipation of a retaliatory strike by Israel
against Iran. U.S. officials told NBC News that Israel has narrowed down the targets it plans to hit.
These include military targets and energy infrastructure, the officials told
NBC.
Crude oil prices today: WTI, Brent fall after China press briefing (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Inflation
expected to fall back below Bank of England’s 2% target
Experts
think inflation will fall in figures released this week before rising later in
2024
October
14, 2024 6:00 am
Inflation is expected
to have fallen back below the Bank of
England’s 2
per cent target when figures covering the year to September are revealed on
Wednesday.
Last
month, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) unveiled that the consumer
prices index (CPI) measure of inflation had held steady at 2.2 per cent in
August, but economists now predict that September’s number will be lower.
Pantheon
Macroeconomics has forecast that September’s CPI figure will be 1.9 per cent,
while Deutsche Bank Research suggests it will likely by 1.8 per cent. Oxford
Economics is forecasting 1.7 per cent.
The
Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has previously said it
expects a slightly higher figure of 2.1 per cent, but that forecast was made in
summer.
In
a note about its forecast, Pantheon Macroeconomics said: “All of the undershoot
relative to the MPC’s call is accounted for by falling motor fuel prices.
“We
expect the drop in motor fuel prices, following oil price falls through the
summer, to cut 0.22 percentage points from headline CPI inflation in September
compared to August.”
It
is forecasting core inflation – which excludes volatile products like food and
energy, to fall from 3.6 per cent to 3.5 per cent, and services inflation to
fall from 5.6 per cent to 5.4 per cent.
Economists
expect inflation to tick upwards later in the year.
Sanjay
Raja of Deutsche Bank Research said: “Upward momentum will likely gather pace.
The recent run of energy deflation will likely come to an end shortly. Indeed,
pump prices are likely to reverse course in October, while dual fuel bills will
see a hefty 10 per cent rise.
“The
upcoming Autumn Budget also raises risks to short-term inflation, with alcohol
and tobacco duty increases potentially in the offing.”
Pantheon
Macroeconomics suggests CPI will reach 2.8 per cent by November, and could
get to 3 per cent in 2025.
The
Bank of England aims for inflation be around 2 per cent, and signs that
inflation is falling can raise the
prospect of it dropping interest rates – which are raised to counter
high price rises.
Interest
rates fell in August from their 16-year high of 5.25 per cent to 5 per cent,
and economists think further falls are still to come.
Most
economists think there will be at least one further fall this year, with
another a possibility.
“We
continue to expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates slowly in the
coming months, from 5 per cent to 4.75 per cent in November, and thereafter
perhaps by 0.25 percentage points at every other meeting,” said Ashley Webb of
Capital Economics.
Inflation expected to fall back below Bank of England's 2% target (inews.co.uk)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Covid hospitalisations surge as new variant XEC spreads across UK
14
October 2024
Covid hospitalisations
have surged across Britain at an
“alarming” rate as a new
variant of the virus emerged, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA)
has warned.
UKHSA
figures showed the admission rate for patients testing positive for Covid XEC
stood at 4.5 per 100,000 people in the week to October 6 – up
from 3.7 a week earlier.
The North East has seen
the highest
hospital admission rates at 8.12 per 100,000, whilst those aged 85
and older face an alarming surge, reaching 52.48 per 100,000, according to the
UKHSA.
Cases
of the XEC variant, first detected in Germany in June, have also been found in
the United States, Denmark and other countries.
The
strain, a combination of the KS.1.1 and KP.3.3 variants, presents symptoms
similar to those of other Covid variants including tiredness, headaches, a sore
throat and high temperatures.
Since
it is still only a sub-family of the same omicron lineage, experts say keeping
up to date with vaccines and booster shots would offer sufficient protection
against severe illness and hospitalisation.
It
is characterised by mutations in the building block molecules phenylalanine (F)
altered to leucine (L), and arginine (R) to threonine (T) on the spike protein
that the virus uses to attach to human cells.
The
second omicron subvariant KP.3.3 belongs to the category FLuQE where the amino
acid glutamine (Q) is mutated to glutamic acid (E) on the spike protein, making
its binding to human cells more effective.
The
US Centers for Disease Control & Prevention also advises people to practise
good hygiene and to take steps for cleaner air.
Researchers
have called for monitoring the XEC variant more closely to better understand
its symptoms.
More
Covid hospitalisations surge as new variant XEC spreads across UK (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
World's
largest onshore wind turbine spins up 430 ft blades to deliver 15 MW
By Abhimanyu Ghoshal October 11, 2024
China's
Sany Renewable Energy claims it has just erected the world's largest onshore
wind turbine. The 15MW prototype was installed earlier this week in northeast
China's Jilin Province.
The
lovingly named SI-270150 turbine features 430-ft-long blades (131 m), making
for a maximum swept area of 616,298 sq ft (57,256 sq m). That's equivalent to
nearly 11 American football fields. According to Sany, it's also set a record
for the largest onshore turbine rotor diameter at 886 ft (270 m), surpassing
the previous largest onshore wind turbine on the planet, Goldwind's 12-MW design launched
in 2023 with
a 787-ft
(240-m) rotor diameter.
The 430 ft blades were first manufactured at the company's facility in Inner Mongolia back in January. Those were built to not only be durable and stable, but also to
incorporate recyclable parts. They also bested Sany's 2023 record for the longest onshore turbine
blades, which measured 341 ft (104 m).
A single 15-MW turbine is said to be able to generate
enough electricity to power 160,000 households for a year. This one is designed
to run for 25-30 years, and features several design optimizations to see it
through that life span. Its drivetrain features a dual tapered roller bearing
integrated main shaft support system, "ensuring high load-bearing capacity
and stability."
Wind energy nerds will have noticed that this 15-MW
turbine isn't nearly as big as the world's largest offshore turbine, which we
wrote about last month – the 20MW behemoth from China's Mingyang Smart Energy.
That's because offshore turbines can be built with
higher towers and longer blades to take advantage of more consistent winds
found over the ocean.
There's also less concern about visual and noise impact
since they're far from populated areas, and they're not constrained by land usage regulations.
It'll be a little while before this 15-MW turbine is
installed widely. Sany said this prototype wind turbine will go through a year
of operational testing for reliability in an experimental wind farm.
That's another feather in China's wind energy cap. As
of 2023, the country accounted for 65% of global wind capacity, with four of the top five wind turbine manufacturers being based there.
That includes world #1 OEM Goldwind, as well as Mingyang, which built the
world's largest offshore turbine last month. Sany, meanwhile, is at #7.
Source: Sany Renewable Energy
World's largest
onshore wind turbine spins up 430 ft blades to deliver 15 MW (newatlas.com)
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The
best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average
voter.
Winston
Churchill.
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