Wednesday, 16 October 2024

Stocks Stumble. AI Bust? China’s Consumers Cutback On Luxury Goods.

Baltic Dry Index. 1766 -48         Brent Crude  74.53

Spot Gold 2667                US 2 Year Yield 3.95  unch.

Liberty not only means that the individual has both the opportunity and the burden of choice; it also means that he must bear the consequences of his actions. Liberty and responsibility are inseparable.

Friedrich August von Hayek.

In the stock casinos, more wobble. Did Biden just burst the AI chip bubble? Lookout below if he did.  Loose lips sink ships stocks comes to mind.

Also on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that that Biden administration officials had discussed limiting sales of advanced AI clips from Nvidia to certain countries in the interest of national security, further dampening investor sentiment around the semiconductor sector.

Japan’s Nikkei leads declines in Asia-Pacific markets after Wall Street falls

Updated Wed, Oct 16 2024 11:43 PM EDT

Most Asia-Pacific markets traded lower Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei leading losses, following declines on Wall Street.

Investors will be watching for more stimulus measures to prop up the real estate sector in China as its housing minister is set to hold a press briefing on Thursday 10 a.m. local time, according to a statement from the State Council Information Office on Tuesday.

Hong Kong’s chief executive John Lee is scheduled to deliver his annual policy address at 11 a.m. local time on Wednesday, which would likely focus on bolstering the city’s economy that has been struggling to recover from the pandemic-induced slump.

Traders in Asia, meanwhile, assessed economic data from the region. New Zealand reported that its consumer prices index for the third quarter rose 2.2% year on year, in line with economists’ expectations in a Reuters poll. It climbed 0.6% on quarter, slightly lower than the anticipated 0.7%.

South Korea’s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate came in at 2.5% in September, compared to 2.4% in August.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell as much as 2%, while the broad-based Topix dropped 0.9%.

In Hong Kong, Hang Seng index gained 0.5%, with the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index up 5.7%.

Mainland China’s CSI index slipped 0.9% after recording a 2.7% decline in the previous session.

The Taiwan Weighted index lost 1.04%, dragged down by technology sector.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.4%.

South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.22% and the small-cap Kosdaq dropped 0.93%.

Overnight in the U.S., stocks tumbled amid corporate earnings season.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 324.80 points, or 0.75%, closing at 42,740.42. The 30-stock average touched a fresh intraday record before sliding. The S&P 500 slipped 0.76% to end at 5,815.26, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.01% to 18,315.59.

The declines came following a strong session on Monday that sent the S&P 500 and Dow to all-time highs.

West Texas Intermediate oil futures climbed up slightly on Wednesday, after dropping more than 4% overnight, following the report that Israel had told the U.S. that it does not plan to target its strike at Iran’s oil facilities.

Japan’s machinery orders drop more than expected in August

Japan’s private-sector machinery orders in August declined 3.4% from a year earlier, data released Wednesday showed, a sharp contraction compared to Reuters poll expectations of a 3.6% rise.

The metric excludes the more volatile orders for ships and those from electric power companies, the release said. On a month-on-month basis those orders fell 1.9%, worse than the estimated 0.1% drop.

The capex outlook faces challenges from unsteady domestic demand, external disruptions, high costs, and policy uncertainty,” said Jeemin Bang, associate economist at Moody’s Analytics.

Asia markets live updates: South Korea unemployment, New Zealand CPI (cnbc.com)

Asian chip stocks fall on ASML’s disappointing forecast, possible U.S. export cap

Published Wed, Oct 16 20241 2:21 AM EDT

Asian chip stocks fell on Wednesday after Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML posted disappointing sales forecasts, driving down global stocks in the sector.

Shares of Japanese semiconductor manufacturing firm Tokyo Electron logged the biggest loses, dropping nearly 10%. Renesas Electronics fell over 3%, and Advantest, a testing equipment supplier dipped 0.8%.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Hon Hai Precision Industry — known internationally as Foxconn — fell as much as 3.3% and 1.6, respectively.

South Korean chipmaking heavyweight SK Hynix, which manufactures high bandwidth memory chips for AI applications for Nvidia, traded 1.6% lower. While Samsung Electronics, the world’s largest maker for dynamic random-access memory chips, saw its shares drop 1.9%.

Losses in the region’s semiconductor sector also dragged down major indexes. Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost more than 2%, South Korea’s Kospi dipped 0.6% and the Taiwan Weighted Index slid 0.7%.

In a report on Tuesday, ASML, which is based in Veldhoven, Netherlands, said it expects net sales for 2025 to come in between 30 billion euros and 35 billion euros ($32.7 billion and $38.1 billion), at the lower half of the range it had previously provided.

Net bookings for the September quarter were 2.6 billion euros ($2.83 billion), the company said — well below the 5.6 billion euro LSEG consensus estimate. Net sales, however, beat expectations coming in at 7.5 billion euros.

The company’s CEO warned of cautiousness among customers and said a “recovery is more gradual than previously expected.”

After ASML tanked 16%, other global chipmakers plunged. Nvidia fell 4.7% and AMD lost 5.2%.

Also on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that that Biden administration officials had discussed limiting sales of advanced AI clips from Nvidia to certain countries in the interest of national security, further dampening investor sentiment around the semiconductor sector.

More

Asian chip stocks fall on ASML's disappointing forecast, possible U.S. export cap (cnbc.com)

Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 slips from record highs: Live updates

Updated Wed, Oct 16 2024 7:01 PM EDT

Stock futures were calm on Tuesday evening as Wall Street looks to see whether equities can be rebound to record highs this week.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 were flat. Nasdaq 100 futures ticked up by less than 0.1%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added just 2 points.

The Dow and S&P 500 both slipped from their recent records during Tuesday’s regular trading session, falling 0.75% and 0.76%, respectively. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.01%, but is still less than 2% from its own record high. Tech stocks – semiconductors, in particular – weighed on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. The tech sector slid 1.8% on Tuesday, as Nvidia fell more than 4%.

Bryn Talkington, managing partner of Requisite Capital Management, said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” that the stock market would likely be choppy in the weeks ahead as investors try to navigate earnings season and the presidential election.

“Until the election is over and we can confirm gridlock, I think at the headline number we’re not going to do much, but I think underneath the surface we’re going to see the haves and have nots,” she said.

Earnings reports this week have been mixed, with solid reports from major banks somewhat offset by weak outlooks from firms like UnitedHealth Group and Dutch chipmaker ASML.

On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley and Abbott Laboratories are two notable reports due out before the market open.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

In other news, China’s consumers pullback continues. Israel promises Biden not to attack Iran’s oil facilities. Well, maybe. Maybe not to attack Iran’s oil facilities until after the US election.

LVMH Sales Drop as Chinese Demand for Costly Handbags Cools

October 15, 2024

(Bloomberg) -- LVMH’s sales of fashion and leather goods fell for the first time since the pandemic as the industry’s biggest player was hammered by a slump in demand from Chinese consumers whose appetite for high-end purchases once seemed insatiable.

Organic revenue at the key unit whose brands include Louis Vuitton and Christian Dior declined 5% in the third quarter, LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE said in a statement Tuesday. Analysts had expected a small gain. That was the worst quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2020 when the world went into lockdown. Overall, the group’s sales slid 3%.

“Most of our markets currently face economic challenges including mainland China,” LVMH Chief Financial Officer Jean-Jacques Guiony said during the quarterly presentation, adding that “consumer confidence in mainland China today is back in line with the all-time low reached during Covid.”

The results “indicate a more pronounced slowdown than expected,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Piral Dadhania said in a note.

The Paris-based company, a bellwether for the luxury industry, saw its American depositary receipts plunge by as much as 10% after the announcement. US rivals including Ralph Lauren Corp. and Estee Lauder Cos. fell in New York trading, while ADRs of Gucci owner Kering SA also slumped.

Consumers in China have reined in spending on costly goods amid worries over slowing economic growth and a property market crisis — concerns that prompted the Chinese government to unveil a package of measures last month to revive the economy.

More

LVMH Sales Drop as Chinese Demand for Costly Handbags Cools (msn.com)

U.S. crude prices fall more than 4% as Israel is not expected to strike Iran’s oil industry

October 15, 2024

US. crude futures fell more than 4% on Tuesday, after Israel reportedly told the U.S. that it is not planning to strike Iran’s oil facilities, relieving fears that a major supply disruption in the Middle East is on the horizon.

Israel plans to limit its retaliatory strikes in Iran to military targets and does not plan to hit the Islamic Republic’s oil industry or its nuclear facilities, three senior Biden administration officials told NBC News.

Oil prices spiked earlier this month after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack against Israel, raising fears that Israel’s response could lead to a cycle of further escalation that disrupts crude supplies in the region.

Geopolitical risk has completely evaporated from the market, Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets told CNBC’s “The Exchange.”

More

U.S. crude prices fall more than 4% as Israel is not expected to strike Iran’s oil industry (msn.com)

In really worrying news, Google wants to own and operate mini nuclear power plants.  After Google, how many other firms want mini nukes?

Do we really want hundreds, if not thousands of privately owned and operated mini nukes. How safe will they be from terrorists? What happens to spent fuel and hundreds of eventually out of date nukes filled with dangerous nuclear trash? Where will all that nuclear waste go and who pays? How much subsidy from long suffering taxpayers? What happens when a private nuke company goes bust?

Google to buy power for AI needs from small modular nuclear reactor company Kairos

14 October 2024

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Alphabet's Google said on Monday it signed the world's first corporate agreement to buy power from multiple small modular reactors to meet electricity demand for artificial intelligence.

The technology company's agreement with Kairos Power aims to bring Kairos' first small modular reactor online by 2030, followed by additional deployments through 2035.

The companies did not reveal financial details of the agreement or where in the U.S. the plants would be built. Google said it has agreed to buy a total of 500 megawatts of power from six to seven reactors, which is smaller than the output of today's nuclear reactors.

"We feel like nuclear can play an important role in helping to meet our demand ... cleanly in a way that's more around the clock," Michael Terrell, senior director for energy and climate at Google, told reporters on a call.

Technology firms have signed several recent agreements with nuclear power companies this year as artificial intelligence boosts power demand for the first time in decades.

In March, Amazon.com purchased a nuclear-powered datacenter from Talen Energy. Last month, Microsoft and Constellation Energy signed a power deal to help resurrect a unit of the Three Mile Island plant in Pennsylvania, the site of the worst U.S. nuclear accident in 1979.

U.S. data center power use is expected to roughly triple between 2023 and 2030 and will require about 47 gigawatts of new generation capacity, according to Goldman Sachs estimates, which assumed natural gas, wind and solar power would fill the gap.

Kairos will need to get full construction and design permitting from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission as well as permits from local agencies, a process that can take years.

Kairos late last year got a construction permit from the NRC to build a demonstration reactor in Tennessee.

"The NRC is ready to efficiently and appropriately review applications for new reactors," said Scott Burnell, an NRC spokesperson.

Small modular reactors are intended to be smaller than today's reactors with components built in a factory, instead of onsite, to reduce construction costs.

Critics say SMRs will be expensive because they may not be able to achieve the economy of scale of larger plants. In addition, they will likely produce long-lasting nuclear waste for which the country does not yet have a final repository.

More

Google to buy power for AI needs from small modular nuclear reactor company Kairos (msn.com)

Finally, yet more bad EV news.

Investigation launched after Tesla crash in France kills four

14 October 2024

Four people have died in a car crash in France after their Tesla vehicle reportedly hit a road sign and caught fire.

A local police spokesman, Lt. Eric Hoarau, said on Monday that the exact circumstances of the crash on Saturday night near the city of Niort were still to be determined and an investigation was underway.

“Everything suggests (the vehicle) came off the road,” Hoarau said, citing marks on the ground and a severed road sign.

There were no witnesses, he said, making the investigation complicated.

The driver and three passengers were burnt beyond recognition, he added.

A local judge said: ‘An inquiry has been opened to determine the causes and circumstances of the deadly accident, a probe during which expertise on the vehicle will be requested.’

Tesla did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

Last month California firefighters had to douse a flaming battery in a Tesla Semi with about 50,000 gallons (190,000 liters) of water to extinguish flames after a crash, the National Transportation Safety Board said.

In addition to the huge amount of water, firefighters used an aircraft to drop fire retardant on the “immediate area” of the electric truck as a precautionary measure, the agency said in a preliminary report.

Firefighters said previously that the battery reached temperatures of 1,000 degrees Fahrenheit (540 Celsius) while it was in flames.

The NTSB sent investigators to the August 19 crash along Interstate 80 near Emigrant Gap, about 70 miles (113 kilometers) northeast of Sacramento. The agency said it would look into fire risks posed by the truck’s large lithium-ion battery.

The agency also found that the truck was not operating on one of Tesla’s partially automated driving systems at the time of the crash, the report said. The systems weren’t operational and “could not be engaged,” according to the agency.

Investigation launched after Tesla crash in France kills four (msn.com)

A day never passes without some ardent reformer or group of reformers suggesting some new government intervention, some new statist scheme to fill some alleged 'need' or relieve some alleged distress.

Henry Hazlitt.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

5 reasons why inflation will be stickier than expected going forward, Deutsche Bank says

14 October 2024

It's tempting to think the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation is over, given the central bank's recent rate cuts and sharpened focus on the labor market. But it's not yet time for investors to relax, Deutsche Bank wrote on Monday.

Though inflation now hovers close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target rate, it's not yet time to declare victory: prices continue to run hotter than expected, and that's happening alongside monetary easing.

"If inflation does return, this could have very important implications for markets," Deutsche Bank strategists said. "We saw in 2022 how there was a massive selloff across both bonds and equities."

The firm detailed five reasons why inflation risks must still be monitored:

First, initial interest-rate cuts have been more broader and deeper than expected on a global basis. In the US, the Federal Reserve cut the Fed funds rate by 50 basis points, citing lower headline inflation to justify its aggressive policy flip.

While that much is true, history shows that easing cycles are precisely the time to be cautious over inflation, Deutsche said.

"If inflation does prove sticky above target today, then that could force central banks to keep monetary policy in restrictive territory for longer," the note said.

Second, stimulus momentum in China and worsening geopolitics in the Middle East have triggered a notable pickup in commodity prices.

Oil prices have jumped this month as investors adjust to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. After an Iranian missile attack on Israel triggered promises of retaliation, the market has braced for a possible disruption to the region's crude output.

Brent crude gained sharply in early October, peaking at $80 per barrel. Deutsche noted this as a considerable high, noting that the international benchmark traded below $70 a barrel just one month prior.

If Israel's response decimated Iran's oil installations, analysts expect prices to hit as much as $200 per barrel.

Meanwhile, industrial metals such as copper have also taken flight, after China announced a series of stimulus measures to reenergize its fleeting economy. The metal is a key component in construction and manufacturing, and can stand to benefit if the world's second-largest economy recovers.

Third, odds of a US recession are ebbing as the economy shows signs of resilience that could keep inflation elevated.

"Much as the stronger news on growth is welcome, it also means that economic demand and inflation is likely to be stronger than it would otherwise have been," analysts wrote.

More

5 reasons why inflation will be stickier than expected going forward, Deutsche Bank says (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Could COVID-19 Raise Your Risk of Heart Attack and Stroke? Study Offers Clues

October 14, 2024

Amid the recent rollout of updated COVID-19 vaccines, a new variant has come to the forefront.

Named XEC, the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) notes it as the second most common variant in the country, behind KP.3.1.1.

While the CDC is confident that due to the variant’s lineage, the latest vaccines provide sufficient protection, severe COVID-19 — typically, where a person is hospitalized — has several potential risks that can affect you months, even years, down the road.

A new study published in Atherosclerosis, Thrombosis, and Vascular BiologyTrusted Source found that those hospitalized with COVID-19 face similar cardiovascular disease risks as those with coronary artery disease. This puts these individuals in the same category as those with diabetes and peripheral artery disease.

The researchers found the risk of heart attack or stroke among those who’ve had a COVID infection of any severity was twice as high. The risk of a cardiovascular event was three times as high for those who were hospitalized for severe COVID-19 infection.

Daniel Makowski, DO, a clinical and sports cardiologist at Lehigh Valley Heart and Vascular Institute, said the cardiac risk from COVID-19 has been a concern since the early days of the pandemic. Makowski wasn’t involved in the study.

“From a cardiac perspective, our biggest initial concerns were about myocarditis, or inflammation of the muscle of the heart, but we didn’t know that much about long-term effects of the COVID virus in the initial stages,” Makowski said.

“Post COVID, in particular, we saw a lot of patients in the cardiology office who were dealing with long-term effects of [COVID], specifically problems with their autonomic system, like elevated heart rates, fatigue, different heart rhythm issues,” he told Healthline.

COVID-19 and heart attack, stroke risk

The team of American researchers used data from the UK Biobank, a leading source for health data.

The study included 219,673 people, 10,005 of whom had a confirmed case of COVID-19. Of these, 1,943 were identified as having severe COVID-19 cases. Another aspect of the study looked at the possible genetic and blood type connections intertwined with severe COVID-19 and cardiac risk.

The cardiac events in this category include stroke and heart attack. The study followed them for 1,003 days.

The researchers found that participants who were hospitalized with COVID-19 without a history of heart disease had around a 20% higher risk of major adverse cardiac events compared to those without COVID-19 but with a history of heart disease.

The findings also suggest that those with a non-O blood type have a higher risk of stroke or heart attack if they were hospitalized with COVID-19.

More

COVID-19 Infection May Raise Risk of Heart Attack and Stroke: Study (healthline.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Nanotech firm Concretene secures £3m VC investment to develop its carbon-saving building technology

14 October 2024

A concrete nanotech firm has secured £3m in venture capital investment to help it bring its green technology to a wider market.

Manchester’s Concretene has developed a graphene-enhanced concrete mixture that helps to reduce the carbon footprint of the building material. It has now secured backing from two investors – tech-specialist VC fund Molten Ventures has led the Seed+ investment round while European investor LocalGlobe, which put seed investment into Concretene in 2023 – has further committed itself to the project.

Concretene says the funding will help it to take the business through product certification and towards revenue generation. The company was founded by civil engineers Rob Hibberd and Alex McDermott, who worked with the University of Manchester’s Graphene Engineering Innovation Centre on their prototype product. It was the first tenant at Bruntwood SciTech’s innovation district ID Manchester, now known as Sister.

Concretene is already working with global cement giant Cemex and pre-cast manufacturer Roger Bullivant on pilot projects, supported by £1.2m from Innovate UK, and are working with concrete specialists from Arup on an extensive material testing programme.

Mike Harrison, chief operating officer at Concretene said: “We’re delighted to welcome Molten Ventures to join with us and LocalGlobe on our mission to decarbonise concrete. We also want to thank LocalGlobe for their enthusiasm and support in getting Concretene off the ground.

“Our team in Manchester has a unique combination of expertise and experience across construction and nanomaterial science, which will enable us to deliver our next stage of development and earn industry confidence and certification.

“With the support of our funders and strategic partners Arup and Black Swan Graphene, we’re now well-placed to move forward rapidly to commercialisation.”

George Chalmers, head of climate at Molten Ventures said: “Concretene has made tremendous strides in getting its technology out of the lab and into meaningful real-world projects and applications. Its solution, viable today, is poised to make a meaningful impact in reducing emissions in one of the hardest to abate sectors. We are delighted to support Concretene's world-class team of scientists and operators in scaling its solution across the industry.”

Arup’s concrete materials lead Dr Fragkoulis Kanavaris said: ““Concretene’s recent bolstering of its technical team will strengthen its expertise in data analysis, nanomaterials in concrete and graphene formulations.

“The materials testing programme is a fantastic opportunity for Arup to support in its efforts to expedite the technology – we look forward to seeing Concretene progress from mixes and formulations towards standardisation.”

Nanotech firm Concretene secures £3m VC investment to develop its carbon-saving building technology (msn.com)

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

When Alexander the Great visited the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: ‘Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.’ It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.

Henry Hazlitt.

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