Baltic
Dry Index. 1766 -48 Brent Crude 74.53
Spot Gold 2667 US 2 Year Yield 3.95 unch.
Liberty not only means that the individual has both the opportunity and the burden of choice; it also means that he must bear the consequences of his actions. Liberty and responsibility are inseparable.
Friedrich August von Hayek.
In the stock casinos, more wobble. Did Biden
just burst the AI chip bubble? Lookout below if he did. Loose lips sink ships stocks comes to
mind.
Also on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that that Biden administration officials had discussed limiting sales of advanced AI clips from Nvidia to certain countries in the interest of national security, further dampening investor sentiment around the semiconductor sector.
Japan’s Nikkei leads declines in Asia-Pacific
markets after Wall Street falls
Updated Wed, Oct 16 2024 11:43 PM EDT
Most Asia-Pacific markets traded lower
Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei leading losses, following declines on Wall
Street.
Investors will be watching for more
stimulus measures to prop up the real estate sector in China as its housing
minister is set to hold a press briefing on Thursday 10 a.m. local time,
according to a statement from the State Council Information Office on Tuesday.
Hong Kong’s chief executive John Lee is
scheduled to deliver his annual policy address at 11 a.m. local time on
Wednesday, which would likely focus on bolstering the city’s economy that has
been struggling to recover from the pandemic-induced slump.
Traders in Asia, meanwhile, assessed
economic data from the region. New Zealand reported that its consumer prices index for the third quarter rose
2.2% year on year, in line with economists’ expectations in a Reuters poll. It
climbed 0.6% on quarter, slightly lower than the anticipated 0.7%.
South Korea’s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate came in at 2.5%
in September, compared to 2.4% in August.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell as much as
2%, while the broad-based Topix dropped 0.9%.
In Hong Kong, Hang Seng index gained 0.5%,
with the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index up 5.7%.
Mainland China’s CSI index slipped 0.9%
after recording a 2.7% decline in the previous session.
The Taiwan Weighted index lost 1.04%,
dragged down by technology sector.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped
0.4%.
South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.22% and the
small-cap Kosdaq dropped 0.93%.
Overnight in the U.S., stocks tumbled amid
corporate earnings season.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
324.80 points, or 0.75%, closing at 42,740.42. The 30-stock average touched a
fresh intraday record before sliding. The S&P 500 slipped 0.76% to
end at 5,815.26, and the Nasdaq
Composite fell 1.01% to 18,315.59.
The declines came following a strong
session on Monday that sent the S&P 500 and Dow to all-time highs.
West Texas Intermediate oil
futures climbed up slightly on Wednesday, after dropping more than 4%
overnight, following
the report that Israel had told the U.S. that it does not plan to
target its strike at Iran’s oil facilities.
Japan’s machinery orders drop more than
expected in August
Japan’s private-sector machinery orders in August declined
3.4% from a year earlier, data released Wednesday showed, a sharp contraction
compared to Reuters poll expectations of a 3.6% rise.
The metric excludes the more volatile
orders for ships and those from electric power companies, the release said. On
a month-on-month basis those orders fell 1.9%, worse than the estimated 0.1%
drop.
″The capex outlook faces challenges from
unsteady domestic demand, external disruptions, high costs, and policy
uncertainty,” said Jeemin Bang, associate economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Asia markets live updates: South Korea unemployment, New Zealand CPI (cnbc.com)
Asian chip stocks fall on ASML’s disappointing
forecast, possible U.S. export cap
Published Wed, Oct 16 20241 2:21 AM EDT
Asian chip stocks fell on Wednesday after
Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML posted disappointing sales forecasts,
driving down global stocks in the sector.
Shares of Japanese semiconductor
manufacturing firm Tokyo
Electron logged the biggest loses, dropping nearly 10%. Renesas Electronics fell
over 3%, and Advantest,
a testing equipment supplier dipped 0.8%.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Company and Hon
Hai Precision Industry — known internationally as Foxconn — fell as
much as 3.3% and 1.6, respectively.
South Korean chipmaking heavyweight SK
Hynix, which manufactures high bandwidth memory chips for AI applications for
Nvidia, traded 1.6% lower. While Samsung Electronics, the world’s largest
maker for dynamic random-access memory chips, saw its shares drop 1.9%.
Losses in the region’s semiconductor
sector also dragged down major indexes. Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost more than
2%, South Korea’s Kospi dipped
0.6% and the Taiwan Weighted
Index slid 0.7%.
In a report on Tuesday, ASML, which is
based in Veldhoven, Netherlands, said it expects net sales for 2025 to come in
between 30 billion euros and 35 billion euros ($32.7 billion and $38.1
billion), at the lower half of the range it had previously provided.
Net bookings for the September quarter
were 2.6 billion euros ($2.83 billion), the company said — well below the 5.6
billion euro LSEG consensus estimate. Net sales, however, beat expectations
coming in at 7.5 billion euros.
The company’s CEO warned of
cautiousness among customers and said a “recovery is more gradual than
previously expected.”
After ASML tanked 16%, other global
chipmakers plunged. Nvidia fell
4.7% and AMD lost
5.2%.
Also on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that that Biden
administration officials had discussed limiting sales of advanced AI clips from
Nvidia to certain countries in the interest of national security, further
dampening investor sentiment around the semiconductor sector.
More
Asian chip stocks fall on ASML's disappointing forecast, possible U.S. export cap (cnbc.com)
Stock futures are little changed after
S&P 500 slips from record highs: Live updates
Updated Wed, Oct 16 2024 7:01 PM EDT
Stock futures were calm on Tuesday evening
as Wall Street looks to see whether equities can be rebound to record highs
this week.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 were flat. Nasdaq 100 futures ticked up
by less than 0.1%, while Dow
Jones Industrial Average futures added just 2 points.
The Dow and S&P 500 both slipped from
their recent records during Tuesday’s regular trading session, falling 0.75%
and 0.76%, respectively. The Nasdaq
Composite fell 1.01%, but is still less than 2% from its own record
high. Tech stocks – semiconductors, in particular – weighed on the S&P 500
and the Nasdaq. The tech sector slid 1.8% on Tuesday, as Nvidia fell more than 4%.
Bryn Talkington, managing partner of
Requisite Capital Management, said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” that the stock
market would likely be choppy in the weeks ahead as investors try to navigate
earnings season and the presidential election.
“Until the election is over and we can
confirm gridlock, I think at the headline number we’re not going to do much,
but I think underneath the surface we’re going to see the haves and have nots,”
she said.
Earnings reports this week have been
mixed, with solid reports from major banks somewhat offset by weak outlooks
from firms like UnitedHealth
Group and Dutch chipmaker ASML.
On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley and Abbott Laboratories are two
notable reports due out before the market open.
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In other news, China’s consumers pullback continues. Israel promises Biden not to attack Iran’s oil facilities. Well, maybe. Maybe not to attack Iran’s oil facilities until after the US election.
LVMH Sales Drop as Chinese Demand for Costly
Handbags Cools
October 15, 2024
(Bloomberg) -- LVMH’s sales of fashion and
leather goods fell for the first time since the pandemic as the industry’s
biggest player was hammered by a slump in demand from Chinese consumers whose
appetite for high-end purchases once seemed insatiable.
Organic revenue at the key unit whose
brands include Louis Vuitton and Christian Dior declined 5% in the third
quarter, LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE said in a statement Tuesday.
Analysts had expected a small gain. That was the worst quarterly performance
since the second quarter of 2020 when the world went into lockdown. Overall,
the group’s sales slid 3%.
“Most of our markets currently face
economic challenges including mainland China,” LVMH Chief Financial Officer
Jean-Jacques Guiony said during the quarterly presentation, adding that
“consumer confidence in mainland China today is back in line with the all-time
low reached during Covid.”
The results “indicate a more pronounced
slowdown than expected,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Piral Dadhania said in a
note.
The Paris-based company, a bellwether for
the luxury industry, saw its American depositary receipts plunge by as much as
10% after the announcement. US rivals including Ralph Lauren Corp. and Estee
Lauder Cos. fell in New York trading, while ADRs of Gucci owner Kering SA also
slumped.
Consumers in China have reined in spending
on costly goods amid worries over slowing economic growth and a property market
crisis — concerns that prompted the Chinese government to unveil a package of measures last month to revive the
economy.
More
LVMH Sales Drop as Chinese Demand for Costly Handbags Cools (msn.com)
U.S. crude prices fall more than 4% as Israel is
not expected to strike Iran’s oil industry
October 15, 2024
US. crude futures fell more than 4% on
Tuesday, after Israel reportedly told the U.S. that it is not planning to
strike Iran’s oil facilities, relieving fears that a major supply disruption in
the Middle East is on the horizon.
Israel plans to limit its retaliatory
strikes in Iran to military targets and does not plan to hit the Islamic
Republic’s oil industry or its nuclear facilities, three senior Biden
administration officials told NBC News.
Oil prices spiked earlier this month after
Iran launched a ballistic missile attack against Israel, raising fears that
Israel’s response could lead to a cycle of further escalation that disrupts
crude supplies in the region.
Geopolitical risk has completely
evaporated from the market, Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at
RBC Capital Markets told CNBC’s “The Exchange.”
More
In really worrying news, Google wants to own and operate mini nuclear power plants. After Google, how many other firms want mini nukes?
Do we really want hundreds, if not thousands of privately owned and operated mini nukes. How safe will they be from terrorists? What happens to spent fuel and hundreds of eventually out of date nukes filled with dangerous nuclear trash? Where will all that nuclear waste go and who pays? How much subsidy from long suffering taxpayers? What happens when a private nuke company goes bust?
Google to buy power for AI needs from small
modular nuclear reactor company Kairos
14 October 2024
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Alphabet's Google
said on Monday it signed the world's first corporate agreement to buy power
from multiple small modular reactors to meet electricity demand for artificial
intelligence.
The technology company's agreement with
Kairos Power aims to bring Kairos' first small modular reactor online by 2030,
followed by additional deployments through 2035.
The companies did not reveal financial
details of the agreement or where in the U.S. the plants would be built. Google
said it has agreed to buy a total of 500 megawatts of power from six to seven
reactors, which is smaller than the output of today's nuclear reactors.
"We feel like nuclear can play an
important role in helping to meet our demand ... cleanly in a way that's more
around the clock," Michael Terrell, senior director for energy and climate
at Google, told reporters on a call.
Technology firms have signed several
recent agreements with nuclear power companies this year as artificial
intelligence boosts power demand for the first time in decades.
In March, Amazon.com purchased a
nuclear-powered datacenter from Talen Energy. Last month, Microsoft and
Constellation Energy signed a power deal to help resurrect a unit of the Three
Mile Island plant in Pennsylvania, the site of the worst U.S. nuclear accident
in 1979.
U.S. data center power use is expected to
roughly triple between 2023 and 2030 and will require about 47 gigawatts of new
generation capacity, according to Goldman Sachs estimates, which assumed
natural gas, wind and solar power would fill the gap.
Kairos will need to get full construction
and design permitting from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission as well as
permits from local agencies, a process that can take years.
Kairos late last year got a construction
permit from the NRC to build a demonstration reactor in Tennessee.
"The NRC is ready to efficiently and
appropriately review applications for new reactors," said Scott Burnell,
an NRC spokesperson.
Small modular reactors are intended to be
smaller than today's reactors with components built in a factory, instead of
onsite, to reduce construction costs.
Critics say SMRs will be expensive because
they may not be able to achieve the economy of scale of larger plants. In
addition, they will likely produce long-lasting nuclear waste for which the
country does not yet have a final repository.
More
Google to buy power for AI needs from small modular nuclear reactor company Kairos (msn.com)
Finally, yet more bad EV news.
Investigation launched after Tesla crash in France
kills four
14 October 2024
Four people have died in a car crash
in France after
their Tesla vehicle
reportedly hit a road sign and caught fire.
A local police spokesman, Lt. Eric Hoarau,
said on Monday that the exact circumstances of the crash on Saturday night near
the city of Niort were still to be determined and an investigation was
underway.
“Everything suggests (the vehicle) came
off the road,” Hoarau said, citing marks on the ground and a severed road sign.
There were no witnesses, he said, making
the investigation complicated.
The driver and three passengers were burnt
beyond recognition, he added.
A local judge said: ‘An inquiry has been
opened to determine the causes and circumstances of the deadly accident, a
probe during which expertise on the vehicle will be requested.’
Tesla did not immediately reply to a
request for comment.
Last month California firefighters
had to douse a flaming battery in a Tesla Semi with
about 50,000 gallons (190,000 liters) of water to extinguish flames after a
crash, the National
Transportation Safety Board said.
In addition to the huge amount of water,
firefighters used an aircraft to drop fire retardant on the “immediate area” of
the electric truck as a precautionary measure, the agency said in a preliminary
report.
Firefighters said previously that the
battery reached temperatures of 1,000 degrees Fahrenheit (540 Celsius) while it
was in flames.
The NTSB sent investigators to the August
19 crash along Interstate 80 near Emigrant Gap, about 70 miles (113 kilometers)
northeast of Sacramento. The agency said it would look into fire risks posed by
the truck’s large lithium-ion battery.
The agency also found that the truck was
not operating on one of Tesla’s partially automated driving systems at the time
of the crash, the report said. The systems weren’t operational and “could not
be engaged,” according to the agency.
Investigation launched after Tesla crash in France kills four (msn.com)
A day never passes without some ardent reformer or group of reformers suggesting some new government intervention, some new statist scheme to fill some alleged 'need' or relieve some alleged distress.
Henry Hazlitt.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
5 reasons why inflation will be stickier than expected going forward, Deutsche Bank says
14
October 2024
It's
tempting to think the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation is over, given
the central bank's recent rate cuts and sharpened focus
on the labor market.
But it's not yet time for investors to relax, Deutsche Bank wrote on Monday.
Though
inflation now hovers close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target rate, it's not
yet time to declare victory: prices continue to run
hotter than expected,
and that's happening alongside monetary easing.
"If
inflation does return, this could have very important implications for
markets," Deutsche Bank strategists said. "We saw in 2022 how there
was a massive selloff across both bonds and equities."
The
firm detailed five reasons why inflation risks must still be monitored:
First, initial
interest-rate cuts have been more broader and deeper than expected on a global
basis. In the US, the Federal Reserve cut the Fed funds rate by 50
basis points, citing lower headline inflation to justify its aggressive policy
flip.
While
that much is true, history shows that easing cycles are precisely the time to
be cautious over inflation, Deutsche said.
"If
inflation does prove sticky above target today, then that could force central
banks to keep monetary policy in restrictive territory for longer," the
note said.
Second,
stimulus momentum in China and worsening geopolitics in the Middle East have
triggered a notable pickup in commodity prices.
Oil
prices have jumped this month as investors adjust to escalating tensions
between Israel and Iran. After an Iranian missile attack on Israel triggered
promises of retaliation, the market has braced for a possible disruption to the
region's crude output.
Brent crude gained
sharply in early October, peaking at $80 per barrel. Deutsche noted this as a
considerable high, noting that the international benchmark traded below $70 a
barrel just one month prior.
If
Israel's response decimated Iran's oil installations, analysts expect prices to
hit as much as $200 per barrel.
Meanwhile,
industrial metals such as copper have also
taken flight, after China announced a series of stimulus measures to reenergize
its fleeting economy. The metal is a key component in construction
and manufacturing,
and can stand to benefit if the world's second-largest economy recovers.
Third, odds
of a US recession are ebbing as the economy shows signs of resilience
that could keep inflation elevated.
"Much
as the stronger news on growth is welcome, it also means that economic demand
and inflation is likely to be stronger than it would otherwise have been,"
analysts wrote.
More
5 reasons why inflation will be stickier than expected going forward, Deutsche Bank says (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Could
COVID-19 Raise Your Risk of Heart Attack and Stroke? Study Offers Clues
October
14, 2024
Amid
the recent rollout of updated COVID-19 vaccines, a new variant has come to the
forefront.
Named
XEC, the latest data from the Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) notes it as the second most common
variant in the country, behind KP.3.1.1.
While
the CDC is confident that due to the variant’s lineage, the latest vaccines
provide sufficient protection, severe COVID-19 — typically, where a person is
hospitalized — has several potential risks that can affect you months, even
years, down the road.
A
new study published in Atherosclerosis,
Thrombosis, and Vascular BiologyTrusted Source found that
those hospitalized with COVID-19 face similar cardiovascular disease risks as
those with coronary artery
disease.
This puts these individuals in the same category as those with diabetes
and peripheral artery
disease.
The
researchers found the risk of heart attack or stroke among those who’ve had a
COVID infection of any severity was twice as high. The risk of a cardiovascular
event was three times as high for those who were hospitalized for severe
COVID-19 infection.
Daniel
Makowski, DO, a
clinical and sports cardiologist at Lehigh Valley Heart and Vascular Institute,
said the cardiac risk from COVID-19 has been a concern since the early days of
the pandemic. Makowski wasn’t involved in the study.
“From
a cardiac perspective, our biggest initial concerns were about myocarditis, or inflammation of the
muscle of the heart, but we didn’t know that much about long-term effects of
the COVID virus in the initial stages,” Makowski said.
“Post
COVID, in particular, we saw a lot of patients in the cardiology office who
were dealing with long-term effects of [COVID], specifically problems with
their autonomic system, like elevated heart rates, fatigue, different heart rhythm
issues,”
he told Healthline.
COVID-19 and heart
attack, stroke risk
The
team of American researchers used data from the UK Biobank, a leading source
for health data.
The
study included 219,673 people, 10,005 of whom had a confirmed case of COVID-19.
Of these, 1,943 were identified as having severe COVID-19 cases. Another aspect
of the study looked at the possible genetic and blood type connections
intertwined with severe COVID-19 and cardiac risk.
The
cardiac events in this category include stroke and heart attack. The study
followed them for 1,003 days.
The
researchers found that participants who were hospitalized with COVID-19 without
a history of heart disease had around a 20% higher risk of major adverse
cardiac events compared to those without COVID-19 but with a history of heart
disease.
The
findings also suggest that those with a non-O blood type have a higher risk of
stroke or heart attack if they were hospitalized with COVID-19.
More
COVID-19 Infection May Raise Risk of Heart Attack and Stroke: Study (healthline.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Nanotech firm
Concretene secures £3m VC investment to develop its carbon-saving building
technology
14
October 2024
A
concrete nanotech firm has secured £3m in venture capital investment to help it
bring its green technology to a wider market.
Manchester’s
Concretene has developed a graphene-enhanced concrete mixture that helps to
reduce the carbon footprint of the building material. It has now secured
backing from two investors – tech-specialist VC fund Molten Ventures has led
the Seed+ investment round while European investor LocalGlobe, which put seed
investment into Concretene in 2023 – has further committed itself to the
project.
Concretene
says the funding will help it to take the business through product
certification and towards revenue generation. The company was founded by civil
engineers Rob Hibberd and Alex McDermott, who worked with the University of
Manchester’s Graphene Engineering Innovation Centre on their prototype product.
It was the first tenant at Bruntwood SciTech’s innovation district ID
Manchester, now
known as Sister.
Concretene is
already working with global cement giant Cemex and
pre-cast manufacturer Roger Bullivant on pilot projects, supported by £1.2m
from Innovate UK, and are working with concrete specialists from Arup on an
extensive material testing programme.
Mike
Harrison, chief operating officer at Concretene said: “We’re delighted to
welcome Molten Ventures to join with us and LocalGlobe on our mission to
decarbonise concrete. We also want to thank LocalGlobe for their enthusiasm and
support in getting Concretene off the ground.
“Our
team in Manchester has a unique combination of expertise and experience across
construction and nanomaterial science, which will enable us to deliver our next
stage of development and earn industry confidence and certification.
“With
the support of our funders and strategic partners Arup and Black Swan Graphene,
we’re now well-placed to move forward rapidly to commercialisation.”
George
Chalmers, head of climate at Molten Ventures said: “Concretene has made
tremendous strides in getting its technology out of the lab and into meaningful
real-world projects and applications. Its solution, viable today, is poised to
make a meaningful impact in reducing emissions in one of the hardest to abate
sectors. We are delighted to support Concretene's world-class team of
scientists and operators in scaling its solution across the industry.”
Arup’s
concrete materials lead Dr Fragkoulis Kanavaris said: ““Concretene’s recent
bolstering of its technical team will strengthen its expertise in data
analysis, nanomaterials in concrete and graphene formulations.
“The
materials testing programme is a fantastic opportunity for Arup to support in
its efforts to expedite the technology – we look forward to seeing Concretene
progress from mixes and formulations towards standardisation.”
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
When
Alexander the Great visited the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could
do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: ‘Yes, stand a little
less between me and the sun.’ It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of
his government.
Henry Hazlitt.
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