Baltic
Dry Index. 1395 -07 Brent Crude 72.99
Spot Gold 2786 US 2 Year Yield 4.15 +0.04
The period of financial distress is a gradual decline after the peak of a speculative bubble that precedes the final and massive panic and crash, driven by the insiders having exited but the sucker outsiders hanging on hoping for a revivial, but finally giving up in the final collapse.
Charles P. Kindleberger.
Not much need for my input today as the articles loudly speak for themselves. Will the USA get the far left UK tax, borrow and spend economy after the new president takes over in mid-January?
No one knows, of course, but neither presidential candidate has offered any plan for reducing Uncle Sam’s soaring and roaring deficit, now up a “mere” 2.838 trillion from this time last year.
It being the last trading day of the month, normally a day to dress up the stock casinos, but with the US election just five days away, it might be a time in the US stock casinos at least, to book some profits, Warren Buffett style.
Asia markets slip as BOJ holds rates; China
factory activity expands for first time since April
Updated Wed, Oct 30 2024 11:12 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets slipped Thursday as
investors look to the Bank of Japan’s rate decision, as well as key business
activity figures from China.
The BOJ held its benchmark policy rate at
0.25%, unchanged from the previous meeting. The bank released a two-line statement simply stating the decision, with
no clues on the timing of its next rate hike.
In China, the country’s manufacturing
purchasing managers index flipped into expansion territory for the
first time since April, with the National Bureau of Statistics revealing the
manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1.
This beat forecasts from a Reuters poll of
economists, who expected the manufacturing PMI to come in at 49.9, a softer
contraction than the 49.8 the month before.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 was 0.41% lower
after the BOJ decision, while the broad based Topix slipped 0.47%.
South Korea’s Kospi was 0.71% lower,
leading losses in Asia, but the small cap Kosdaq was up 0.39%.
Investors are assessing heavyweight Samsung
Electronics’ third-quarter earnings, which revealed a lower profit than the
previous quarter. Most notably, Samsung’s semiconductor unit reported
third-quarter operating profit of 3.86 trillion won (about $2.8 billion), down
40% from the previous quarter.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.3%.
In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed
0.66%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was also 0.54% higher.
Overnight in the U.S., stocks slipped as
investors digested a deluge of earnings reports and looked toward more results
from megacap technology companies.
Alphabet exceeded
analysts’ expectations as the company saw strong
quarterly revenue growth from its cloud business. Shares jumped almost
3%. However, Shares of chipmaker AMD slid
more than 10% as its fourth-quarter revenue
guidance failed to impress investors.
Tech titans Apple and Amazon are due Thursday,
following results from Meta
Platforms and Microsoft.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined
0.56% after earlier rising to a fresh record high. The S&P 500 slid 0.33%, and
the Dow Jones Industrial
Average lost 0.22%, to close at 42,141.5
Asia markets live: BOJ decision, China PMI, Samsung earnings
S&P 500 futures slip after Microsoft reports;
traders brace for key inflation data: Live updates
Updated Thu, Oct 31 2024 1:26 AM EDT
Stock futures slid on Thursday morning as
Wall Street absorbed a fresh batch of earnings reports from megacap technology
names.
S&P 500 futures lost
0.48%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell
about 0.7%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined
76 points, or 0.18%.
In after-hours action, Meta Platforms dropped 3%
after missing the Street’s expectations for user growth and warning that capital
expenditures will rise in 2025. Microsoft’s revenue
guidance disappointed investors, dragging shares nearly 4% lower.
During regular trading Wednesday, the
major averages posted modest losses. The S&P 500 declined 0.3%,
while the Dow dropped
0.2%, and the Nasdaq
Composite fell nearly 0.6%.
Investors also weighed the
third-quarter U.S.
gross domestic product reading, which showed that the economy grew at a
2.8% annualized rate, falling short of the 3.1% consensus forecast from Dow
Jones.
Another market catalyst awaits on Thursday
morning: the personal
consumption expenditures price index for September. This also happens
to be the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. Economists polled by
Dow Jones expect that the PCE grew by 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.1% from a
year earlier.
This PCE reading, along with Friday’s
October payrolls report, will inform the Fed’s interest rate decision on Nov. 7
when it ends its two-day policy meeting
“Growth up, inflation down is precisely
what you want to see,” said Jamie Cox, managing director at Harris Financial
Group. “The Fed doesn’t need to be afraid of a stable and growing economy to
normalize rates this cycle so long as disinflation persists.”
Tech earnings continues on Thursday with
results from tech giants Apple and Amazon. Uber, Merck and Intel are also slated to
report.
On the economic data front, the weekly
jobless claims report is out on Thursday morning.
Stock market today: Live updates
In UK news, higher taxes, higher spending, higher borrowing. In a warning to US voters, UK voters get exactly what they voted for. Poor UK!
Tax burden to rise to historic highs after
Labour’s first Budget, OBR says
Wednesday 30 October 2024 3:52 pm | Updated: Wednesday 30 October 2024 4:07 pm
The new government’s first Budget will see
the tax take rise to its highest ever level, the Office for Budget
Responsibility (OBR) said today.
Rachel Reeves unveiled tax rises worth
£40bn in Labour’s
first Budget, helping to fund a big increase in public spending, while the
Chancellor also raised borrowing significantly.
“This budget delivers one of the largest
increases in spending, tax and borrowing of any fiscal event in history,”
Richard Hughes, chair of the OBR said following the Budget.
In its latest
economic forecasts, published alongside the Budget, the independent fiscal
watchdog forecast that the state would expand to 44 per cent of GDP, almost
five percentage points bigger than it was before the pandemic.
About half of the planned increase in
public spending will be funded by higher taxes, most notably the big increase
in employers’ national insurance.
This will push the tax intake to 38 per
cent of GDP by the end of the decade, its highest level on record.
The rest of the increase in public
spending will be financed by higher borrowing. Budget policies will mean
borrowing increases by an average of £32bn over the next five years, the OBR
said.
Growth would see a “temporary boost” as a
result of policies announced in the Budget, although this would fade in the
medium term due to crowding-out.
Crowding-out describes when increased
government spending leads to a decrease in private sector activity.
“The increase in the public sector’s use
of resources in an economy close to its potential level of output leads to the
crowding-out of some business investment,” Hughes said.
“The net effect of all these changes is to
leave the level of GDP higher in the near term, but broadly unchanged at the
medium term,” he added.
Looking at the long term, the OBR
suggested that a “sustained” increase in public
investment beyond the five-year forecast period would help improve the
UK’s growth outlook.
Hughes said that the net effect of the
government’s policies would “turn positive in the early 2030s as the lagged
impact of a larger public capital stock feeds through into potential output”.
However, inflation will also be higher
than it otherwise would have been as a result of the Budget, which may force
the Bank of England to hold interest rates higher for longer.
The OBR’s March forecasts suggested
inflation would fall below two per cent next year, remaining below the Bank’s
target for the duration of the forecast period.
Its latest forecasts suggest inflation
will remain above two per cent until 2029.
David Miles, a member of the OBR’s Budget
Responsibility Committee, said the spending increases “push the economy…a
little into the territory of demand running a bit ahead of supply capacity”.
Tax burden to rise to historic highs after Labour's first Budget
In other news.
Eurozone Growth Beats Expectations Amid German
Surprise
October 30, 2024 at 6:00 PM GMT
Concerns about Europe’s economy eased
slightly after better than expected third quarter growth. Economic
activity in the 20-nation currency bloc rose 0.4%, surpassing the expectations
of economists who had predicted gross domestic product would hold steady.
Germany saw surprise growth of 0.2%, catching analysts off guard, though the
reading for the previous three months was revised down sharply. The European
Union’s biggest provider of goods and services avoided the recession it was widely tipped to endure as its
manufacturing sector grapples with a loss of competitiveness. But German inflation
quickened more sharply than expected, exceeding the European
Central Bank’s 2% target. Overall, the weak point was Italy, where output was
unexpectedly flat, driven by a negative net trade contribution. The market
pared bets on ECB rate cuts after the data, pricing around a 25% chance of a
half-point cut in December. Meanwhile, the US economy also expanded in the
third quarter as household purchases accelerated ahead of the upcoming
election.
Eurozone Growth Beats Expectations on Surprise German Economic Expansion - Bloomberg
EU
in turmoil as huge row erupts with 'Big Brother' fears over digital euro
29
October 2024
Several European Union member
states and the European
Central Bank (ECB)
are in a bitter dispute over the new rules governing the new digital euro
currency, with a fight for "political supremacy" ongoing.
Despite
appearing like a debate about dry technical minutiae, the ramifications of
decisions taken over the digital currency are vast and raise fundamental
questions about EU member states' sovereignty.
There
are a number of concerns. One is that EU citizens may take unkindly to having a
digital currency imposed upon them by unelected technocrats in Frankfurt. One
Brussels-based executive told Politico: "You can create something in an
ivory tower, but will it actually be used in a market?"
There
are also fears over the unintended consequences of the cap placed on how much
digital currency EU citizens can carry in their "wallets".
Raise
the cap too high and EU consumers could pull huge sums from traditional banks
into their digital wallets during a crisis. This, in turn, would spark
widespread financial chaos and even jeopardise the banking system itself.
Then
there is the concern that if member states set the limit, they could set the
limit too low and become a de facto "Big Brother" state, exerting
tight controls on the financial freedom of its citizens.
One
diplomat told Politico, the battle between the ECB and EU members over who sets
the limits and at what point, exposes a fundamental "battle for
power" between sovereign states and technocrats.
Germany,
France and the Netherlands are chief among the complainants to the ECB, arguing
for greater control for member states.
According
to Politico, which claims it has seen notes on this subject, it was argued that
the ECB's role as designer of the technology should not serve to
"limit" the "decision-making power" of member states.
The
outlet reports that one solution could be that member states define the
parameters for the ECB to set the limit on what citizens can carry in their
wallets, but ultimately Christine Lagarde and Frankfurt would have the final
say.
EU in turmoil as huge row erupts with 'Big Brother' fears over digital euro
Finally, is the BIS based in Basel, Switzerland, now just a front for the CIA and US Federal Reserve, now that the District of Crooks is 35.840 trillion in unrepayable debt?
In October 2024, BIS was reported to be considering shutting down the pilot mBridge platform, as the 16th BRICS summit had discussed the creation of a BRICS Bridge, based on the mBridge technology. Such a system would allow BRICS countries to become partly independent of the US-supervised financial system and restrictions to SWIFT, which is subject to US pressure, and thus partly evade the US financial sanctions system
MBridge
mBridge (a.k.a. Multiple CBDC
Bridge) is a multiple central bank digital currency platform
developed to support real-time, peer-to-peer, cross-border payments and foreign
exchange transactions using CBDCs. Based on a blockchain called
the mBridge Ledger, the platform is designed to ensure compliance
with jurisdiction-specific policy and legal requirements, regulations, and
governance needs.[1]
Currently five entities are jointly
developing mBridge. They include the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA),
the Bank
of Thailand (BoT),
the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates (CBUAE),
the Digital Currency
Research Institute of
the People's
Bank of China (PBC
DCI), and the BIS Innovation Hub Hong Kong
Centre (BISIH Hong Kong Centre).[1] The Saudi
Central Bank joined
in June 2024.[2]
Development
A pilot involving real corporate
transactions was conducted on the platform among participating central banks,
selected commercial banks, and their customers in four jurisdictions. The
project focused on developing hypothetical use cases in the Greater Bay Area (GBA) as a
way to demonstrate the technology and operational improvements that mBridge can
offer.[3]
In September 2021, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), in
collaboration with Thailand, Hong Kong, China, and the UAE, published a
report regarding the second phase of the mBridge project, aiming to establish a
system involving multiple CBDCs to enable faster, more cost-effective, and
efficient methods for conducting cross-border transfers and foreign exchange
operations.[4]
The HKMA expressed the intent to
collaboratively launch a minimum viable product in 2024, with the effort built
on the G20's focus on
exploring new technologies to provide more cost-effective and secure real-time
cross-border payments and settlements.[5]
In October 2024, BIS was reported to be
considering shutting down the pilot mBridge platform, as the 16th BRICS summit had
discussed the creation of a BRICS Bridge, based on the mBridge technology. Such
a system would allow BRICS countries to
become partly independent of the US-supervised financial system and
restrictions to SWIFT, which is subject
to US pressure, and thus partly evade the US financial sanctions system.[6][7][8]
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
There
may be trouble (as in a USA recession) ahead!
Breaking:
US JOLTS Job Openings fall to 7.44 million in September vs. 7.99 million
expected
10/29/2024
14:06:24 GMT
The
number of job openings on the last business day of September stood at 7.44
million, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in the Job Openings
and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday. This reading followed the 7.86
million (revised from 8.4 million) recorded in August and came in below the
market expectation of 7.99 million.
"Over
the month, hires changed little at 5.6 million. The number of total
separations was unchanged at 5.2 million," the BLS noted in its press
release. "Within separations, quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and
discharges (1.8 million) changed little."
JOLTS Job Openings
fall to 7.44 million in September vs. 7.99 million expected
Job
openings fall to pre-pandemic levels as US labor market continues to cool down
October
29, 2024
In
the next four days, a fire hose of data will be unleashed, providing crucial
snapshots of the US economy in advance of a pivotal election and a Federal
Reserve meeting.
The
first burst on Tuesday — a critical read on activity within the jobs market —
showed that the once too-tight labor market is starting to look more like its
pre-pandemic days.
There
were an estimated 7.4 million unfilled jobs on the last day of September, a
drop from August’s
revised tally of 7.86 million openings, according to new data released Tuesday
by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The largest drop-offs in openings were in
industries that have driven much of the job growth in recent years: health care
and social assistance, and government, according to the report.
“I
think the normalization of the labor market has continued to progress,” Eugenio
Aleman, chief economist for Raymond James, told CNN.
Economists
were expecting the number of job openings to land at around 7.9 million,
declining from the prior month’s initial estimate of 8.04 million, according to
FactSet estimates.
The
decline in job openings reflects a labor market that has slowed back to a
pre-pandemic pace after experiencing years of blockbuster growth: The rate of
openings as a percentage of total employment mirrors what was seen throughout
much of 2018 and 2019, BLS data shows.
“Decreasing
or subdued job openings, quits and hiring rates last month all point to a
cooler labor market compared to one year ago,” Elizabeth Renter, senior
economist for NerdWallet, wrote in commentary issued Tuesday.
“Employers aren’t bringing many folks on, and
workers aren’t super eager to leave the comforts of their existing
roles in the current environment.”
The
latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) — which provides a sense
of how much churn and movement there is in the job market — is the first major
report to land in an economic data-heavy week.
And
that data is going to be a bit muddy: The ongoing Boeing strike and Hurricanes
Helene and Milton are expected
to heavily distort jobs data starting with the month of October.
As
it stands now, and accounting for the weather- and strike-related losses,
economists are expecting that October’s job gains will be around 120,000 — half
of what was seen in September
(which was surprisingly strong), FactSet estimates show.
While
the upcoming data may be temporarily noisy and choppy, the latest JOLTS report
— which also tracks hires, quits, layoffs and other turnover activity — painted
a straightforward picture of a cooling labor market.
At
the end of September, the total number of hires rose to 5.56 million from 5.44
million and layoffs jumped to 1.83 million from 1.67 million. However, the
rates of hires and layoffs as a percentage of overall employment remain within
the levels seen during the solid employment expansion period in the decade
before the pandemic.
The
closely watched “quits rate,” which serves as both a gauge of employee
confidence as well as an indicator of future wage growth, dropped to 1.9%.
Outside of 2020, that’s the lowest quits rate since the summer of 2015, BLS
data shows.
Still,
it’s possible that Tuesday’s JOLTS report could partly reflect the effects of Hurricane
Helene, which made landfall in Florida late September 26; and the Boeing
strike, which began
September 13,
Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, noted Tuesday.
“Specifically,
hires may be temporarily depressed and layoffs overstated,” she wrote.
Job openings fall
to pre-pandemic levels as US labor market continues to cool down
Stellantis
to Pause Production of Durango, Grand Cherokee Amid Slow Sales
Workers
at the Detroit Assembly Complex Jefferson will be off the job for a few days.
By: Christopher Smith Oct 28, at 4:49pm ET
For
at least a few days, the manufacturing facilities at FCA's large Detroit
Assembly Complex—Jefferson will fall silent. Stellantis notified workers of a
temporary shutdown and subsequent layoffs today, according to a report from Mopar
Insiders. The shutdown will occur this week.
A
communication titled "Important Notice of Layoff" was posted by Mopar
Insiders, stating "There will be no scheduled production at Detroit
Assembly Complex Jefferson." The dates listed are October 28 through
November 1. No specific reason for the shutdown was mentioned in the
communication. As of 2022, over 5,000 people were employed at the Jefferson
complex, though permanent layoffs hit approximately 200 workers in September.
FCA's parent company, Stellantis, provided the following statement to Motor1:
"Stellantis
continues to take the necessary actions to align production with sales. This
includes making production adjustments at the Detroit Assembly Complex -
Jefferson. The Company will continue to monitor the situation to assess whether
further action is required."
It's
no secret that Stellantis isn't having a great year. That's especially true for
the conglomerate's North American operations, which were singled out by
Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares as underperforming
due to a poor marketing strategy. He also called out quality problems
with Ram production,
and said that all brands within Stellantis—including those not based in North
America—will have just a few years to show
viability or be dropped.
The
production pause at the Jefferson location comes as Stellantis wrestles with
extremely high inventories at dealerships in North America. Some models,
notably those from Alfa Romeo, have well over a
year's worth of supply.
As
of October 1, Jeep Grand
Cherokee sales
were down 12 percent for the year at 160,939 units sold. The Durango was down 13 percent at
46,870. Dodge is currently in the process of revealing several "Last
Call" models of the Hemi-powered Durango Hellcat, which bows out for 2025.
Unconfirmed rumors have the Durango ending production in 2027.
Stellantis to Pause Production of Durango, Grand Cherokee Amid Slow Sales
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
CDC
Data Shows COVID-19 Cases Near All-Time Low as Agency Recommends New Vaccine
Dose
The
recommendation targets adults aged 65 and older and people with compromised
immune systems.
10/29/2024
Updated: 10/29/2024
Data
provided by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show that
COVID-19 cases are near their all-time low, coming as the agency recently
signed off its advisory panel’s recommendation that certain people should get a
second dose of the updated COVID-19 vaccine
In
an update on Oct. 28, data provided by the
CDC show that COVID-19 hospitalizations, deaths, emergency department visits,
and case numbers have been trending downward since the summer.
Recent
data show that the nationwide COVID-19 activity in wastewater “is currently
low,” the CDC said. In
mid-August,
the CDC reported that the virus’ levels in wastewater had reached “very high”
levels in 31 states.
As
of mid-October, there were no states that had reported “very high” levels,
while three states only reported “high” levels of viral activity, according to
a map from the agency,
updated last week.
The
number of COVID-19 deaths reported per week is also near their all-time low
since the pandemic started in March 2020, according to the CDC’s
historic trends date. For the week ending Oct. 19, around 341 deaths were
reported by the agency, down from about 1,300 deaths for the week ending Aug.
31, it shows.
The
CDC said in its winter outlook that it “expects the fall and winter respiratory
disease season will likely have a similar or lower number of combined peak
hospitalizations due to COVID-19, influenza, and RSV compared to last season.”
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
If Green
Energy is the Future, Bring a Fire Extinguisher
By Steve Goreham Published October 28, 2024
Alternative
energy is exploding─literally. Lithium battery fires are breaking out on
highways and in factories, home garages, and storage rooms. The rise in battery
fires is amplified by government efforts to force adoption of electric vehicles
and grid-scale batteries for electric power.
Lithium
batteries have high energy density, making them valuable for phones and
portable appliances. But when they catch fire, these batteries burn with high
heat and can even explode. That’s why airlines prohibit lithium batteries in
checked baggage.
On
June 24, a battery factory in South Korea caught fire,
triggering explosions and killing 22 workers. The fire broke out in Hwaseong at
the Aricell plant, a maker of small lithium batteries for sensors and
communications devices. Experts estimate that most workers were killed by toxic
gases emitted by the burning batteries.
Scotland
has suffered two major fires in battery recycling centers this year. On April
8, a large fire broke
out at Fenix Battery Recycling in Kilwinning, North Ayrshire. More than 40
firefighters and personnel from six different agencies responded to the blaze,
which burned for
several days. The Scottish Fire and Rescue Service urged nearby residents to
remain indoors with windows closed as long as two days after the fire started.
On
June 23, a large fire broke out at the battery recycling treatment facility of
WEEE Solutions in Glasgow. Eyewitnesses reported explosions,
noises like gunshots, “steel flying everywhere,” and a huge plume of black
smoke. Ten fire trucks were needed, and the blaze lasted four days.
E-bike
battery fires are now the leading cause of fires in
New York City, with 216 fires last year. E-bike fires have become a serious
problem in Australia, Canada, and
other nations as well. Low-quality bike batteries self-ignite in first-floor
storerooms, destroying the buildings above. Even high-quality batteries are
prone to self-ignition after damage or when connected to a faulty charging
system.
Lithium
batteries have been used for the last 30 years in phones and small appliances.
But the introduction of electric cars (EVs) after the year 2000 provided a
massive increase in battery size. Lithium batteries for cars and trucks are
10,000 times as large as phone batteries.
On
August 19, a Tesla semi-truck crashed into trees along Interstate-80 in
California. The crash ignited the
truck’s large lithium battery. Firefighters tried to extinguish the fire with
thousands of gallons of water but were forced to let the fire burn itself out.
The interstate was shut down for 15 hours. The California Advanced Clean Fleets
Regulation passed last year requires all
new heavy trucks to be zero emissions vehicles, which practically means
electric trucks with batteries prone to fire.
Automakers
have been wrestling with lithium battery fires for more than a decade. Alfa
Romeo, BMW, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Mercedes-Benz, Porche, Tesla, and
other manufacturers have recalled millions of EVs because of battery fire
problems. Batteries can self-ignite while the vehicle is in motion, when
connected to a charger, or even when sitting idly in a parking lot. EVs prone
to self-ignition have been prohibited from
parking at West Coast parking lots.
In
August, a Mercedes-Benz EQE that had been manufactured in China burst into
flames in a parking garage in Inchon, Korea. The EV had been parked in the
garage for several days and was not charging at the time. The resulting inferno
destroyed or damaged 140 vehicles.
On
August 24, a fire broke out
in the outside parking lot of electric truck manufacturer Rivian in Normal,
Illinois. More than 50 trucks were destroyed. The same plant also
reportedly suffered three
other battery fires in the last year and three more fires
in 2021-2022.
How
are governments responding to the rash of lithium battery fires? They are
doubling down, promoting the use of even larger, grid-scale lithium batteries
as part of efforts to transition from coal, oil, and natural gas to wind and
solar energy.
---- The
world faces an epidemic of lithium battery fires. If government leaders
continue to push lithium batteries and the green energy transition, battery
fires will soon be coming to a location near you.
More
If Green Energy is
the Future, Bring a Fire Extinguisher - The Heartland Institute
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The propensity to swindle grows parallel with the propensity to
speculate during a boom the implosion of an asset price bubble always leads to
the discovery of frauds and swindles.
Charles P. Kindleberger.
