Special Update 31/08/2024 PCE Core 2.6% EU Inflation 2.2%.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1814 -13          Brent Crude 76.93

Spot Gold 2503              U S 2 Year Yield 3.91 +0.04

Occupants of public offices love power and are prone to abuse it.

George Washington.

In the stock casinos, to infinity and beyond, just like 1929, but no one remembers 1929.

Most in the stock casinos don’t even remember 2007-2010. They only remember 2020-2023 and all that free Covid cash and zero interest rates.

Besides, there’s a new AI dot.con bubble underway and this time it’s different right?

Well maybe, but come November American voters must pick between two economic lunatics as their next President. Neither has an economic plan that makes any sense, though each risk speeding up global de-dollarisation.

But for now, dress up Friday went very well.

The only good news around, if it actually happens, OPEC+ say they will restore some closed down crude oil production in the coming quarter starting in October.

Stocks close higher Friday, S&P 500 posts fourth straight winning month: Live updates

Updated Fri, Aug 30 2024 4:44 PM EDT

Stocks rose on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting a fresh record high as investors ended a volatile month on a high note. Traders also mulled over crucial inflation data watched closely by the Federal Reserve.

The 30-stock Dow jumped 228.03 points, or 0.55%, to close at 41,563.08. The blue-chip index touched a fresh all-time high in the final minutes of the trading session and closed at another record.

The S&P 500 advanced 1.01%, closing at 5,648.40, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.13% to end at 17,713.62.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in July and 2.5% from a year ago. The result was in line with estimates from economists polled by Dow Jones. Excluding food and energy, it also rose 0.2% from the prior month.

The Fed keeps a close eye on this metric, and it could still influence policymakers’ rate decision in September.

“The equity markets are very much behaving as if everything is sanguine,” said Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, speaking on Friday’s market action. “There’s more evidence for the soft landing, and there’s less evidence that the Fed is going to cut aggressively.”

At the end of August’s trading, the S&P 500 posted a 2.3% gain for the month, while the Dow climbed nearly 1.8%. The Nasdaq Composite clinched a 0.7% advance for the period. The S&P 500 notched its fourth straight winning month. A surge in consumer staples, real estate and health care helped lift the broad market index in August.

The major averages suffered a steep sell-off at the start of the month, with the S&P 500 losing as much as 7.3% before recovering. The Dow and Nasdaq were down as much as 5.4% and 10.7%, respectively, at their lows this month.

Stock market news for August 30, 2024 (cnbc.com)

European stocks end August at record high after volatile start to the month

Published Fri, Aug 30 2024 1:57 AM EDT

LONDON — European markets closed higher on Friday, the last trading day of August, as investors considered inflation data from around the world.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 notched an intraday record high of 526.66 points during the session, according to LSEG data, before paring gains slightly. The index nonetheless closed above 525 points for the first time, having shaken off the sharp sell-off at the start of August to end the month around 1.3% higher.

---- Global equity markets have been buoyed by increased optimism of a soft landing for the U.S. economy and expectations for the start of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in September, with follow-up cuts from the European Central Bank and others.

A series of key inflation data was published in both Europe and the U.S. this week reinforcing those expectations.

Euro zone inflation fell to a three-year low of 2.2% in August, according to flash figures released by statistics agency Eurostat on Friday. The reading was in line with expectations, and below July’s 2.6% print.

Elsewhere, France’s preliminary, EU-harmonized consumer price index came in at 2.2% for August on an annual basis, down from the 2.7% print of July, the country’s statistics office said Friday. Preliminary data from Italy’s statistics agency showed the harmonized CPI came in at 1.3% on an annual basis in August, less than in the previous month.

That comes after German and Spanish CPI reports released Thursday showed that inflationary pressures in the two countries are easing.

Stateside, data showed that the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.2% in July on a monthly basis, which was in line with expectations. The data could inform the central bank’s monetary policy, with many investors hoping that the Fed will start cutting interest rates when it next meets in September.

“We’re fairly bullish from a medium-term perspective,” Dennis Jose, head of global equity strategy at BNP Paribas Exane, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.

“We’ve been in the soft landing camp for nearly two years... I think the market has caught up with that view. But I think heading into Q3 the key theme we were looking for was for markets to embrace the view that inflation is dead. That would allow rates to come down, that would lock in central bank cutting cycles, and that would effectively bring the Fed put back,” Jose said.

“Meanwhile, growth has been soggy. So the key debate for Q4 is whether the sogginess does lead to a recession, or whether we get something else.”

European markets: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)

Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge shows price pressures easing as rate cuts near

30 August 2024

An inflation measure closely tracked by the Federal Reserve remained low last month, extending a trend of cooling price increases that clears the way for the Fed to start cutting its key interest rate next month for the first time in 4 1/2 years.

Prices rose just 0.2% from June to July, the Commerce Department said Friday, up a tick from the previous month’s 0.1% increase. Compared with a year earlier, inflation was unchanged at 2.5%.

The slowdown in inflation could upend former President Donald Trump's efforts to saddle Vice President Kamala Harris with blame for rising prices. Still, despite the near-end of high inflation, many Americans remain unhappy with today's sharply higher average prices for such necessities as gas, food and housing compared with their pre-pandemic levels.

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core inflation rose 0.2% from June to July, the same as in the previous month. Measured from a year earlier, core prices increased 2.6%, also unchanged from the previous year. Economists closely watch core prices, which typically provide a better read of future inflation trends.

Friday's figures underscore that inflation is steadily fading in the United States after three painful years of surging prices hammered many families' finances. According to the measure reported Friday, inflation peaked at 7.1% in June 2022, the highest in four decades.

The Fed tends to favor the inflation gauge that the government issued Friday — the personal consumption expenditures price index — over the better-known consumer price index. The PCE index tries to account for changes in how people shop when inflation jumps. It can capture, for example, when consumers switch from pricier national brands to cheaper store brands.

In general, the PCE index tends to show a lower inflation rate than CPI. In part, that’s because rents, which have been high, carry double the weight in the CPI that they do in the index released Friday.

In a high-profile speech last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell attributed the inflation surge that erupted in 2021 to a “collision” of reduced supply stemming from the pandemic’s disruptions with a jump in demand as consumers ramped up spending, drawing on savings juiced by federal stimulus checks.

More

Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge shows price pressures easing as rate cuts near (msn.com)

Finally, America may be some $35+ Trillion in unrepayable, fast rising debt, but  NATO’s never ending proxy war pays off  in spades for some.

‘Worth Billions’: Defense Contractors Set To Hit Gold Rush Amid Record Weapons Orders

27 August 2024 Story by Jake Smith.

Major U.S. and global defense contractors are set for a cash windfall from a historic number of weapons orders, The Financial Times reported on Monday.

The top 15 defense contractors are projected to generate roughly $52 billion in 2026, nearly double what they made in 2021, according to the Times. The industry is enjoying record numbers as governments around the world place an increasing amount of weapons orders to deal with a rise in global conflicts and tensions.

“It is a cyclical business,” Byron Callan, managing partner at Capital Alpha Partners, told the Times. “As much as people talk about 10-year demand cycles, politics can change and security assessments can change and so too can defense demand.”

Five major U.S.-based defense contractors are expected to generate $26 billion by the end of 2026, more than double what they made in 2021, according to the Times. That doesn’t include Boeing, however, as the company has recently been beset with problems and primarily focuses on civil aerospace projects to begin with.

U.S. defense contractors have also benefited from $13 billion in recent government legislation that appropriated the funds for weapons production for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, according to the Times. The U.S. has spent more than $70 billion on military aid for Ukraine since 2022.

Europe’s BAE Systems, Rheinmetall and Saab — three of the country’s biggest contractors — are set to jointly see more than a 40% jump in cash flow, according to the Times.

The surge in defense contracts can be explained by a rise in geopolitical tensions, especially with regard to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, conflict in the Middle East and rising tensions in Asia, according to the Times.

Defense contractors don’t usually see profits realized for several years, as sales are typically only completed once the project or weapon is delivered to the buyer, but the historic boom in contracts is already raising questions as to how those companies will use their windfall of funds, according to the Times.

“It’s the billion-dollar question for the industry: companies typically don’t like holding large amounts of cash on their balance sheets, so what do they do with all that money if acquisitions are not that straightforward? Share buybacks and dividends are one way,” Robert Stallard, an analyst at Vertical Research, told the Times.

Some defense contractors have already poured billions of dollars into stock share buybacks, according to the Times. 2023 was the most robust year in five years for share buybacks between aerospace and defense contractors, though the move has been criticized by some lawmakers who wonder whether those companies are dedicating enough funding to improving their production capabilities.

More

‘Worth Billions’: Defense Contractors Set To Hit Gold Rush Amid Record Weapons Orders (msn.com)

To contract new debts is not the way to pay old ones.

George Washington.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch. 

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

Eurozone inflation hits over 3-year low: Are ECB rate cuts looming?

30 August 2024

Inflation in the Eurozone has fallen to its lowest level in over three years, intensifying speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) might soon consider lowering interest rates.

According to Eurostat's preliminary data, the harmonised index of consumer prices across the currency bloc observed a year-on-year rise of 2.2% in August 2024. This marks the lowest annual inflation rate since July 2021, before it spiked to a peak of 10.6% in October 2022.

This marks a significant easing from the 2.6% rise recorded in July, aligning with economists' expectations. On a monthly basis, the overall index edged up by 0.2%, following a stagnant reading in July.

The decline in annual inflation was primarily driven by a sharp 3% drop in energy prices and favourable base effects.

Excluding volatile components such as energy and food, core inflation slightly declined from 2.9% to 2.8% annually, reaching the lowest level since April 2024. However, on a monthly basis, core inflation saw a 0.3% increase, mainly due to a rise in services prices.

Service-related expenses, which constitute nearly 45% of the Eurozone’s harmonised index, escalated by 4.2% year-over-year in August, up from a previous 4%, and experienced a 0.4% monthly rise.

“Policy should proceed gradually and cautiously since the current level of headline inflation understates the challenges monetary policy is still facing,” said Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB's Executive Board, during a speech in Estonia on Friday. She highlighted that domestic inflation remains high at 4.4%, largely due to persistent price pressures in the services sector, where disinflation has effectively stalled since last November.

In a separate release, Eurostat reported that the unemployment rate for the Eurozone eased from 6.5% to 6.4% in August, below market forecasts of 6.5%.

More

Eurozone inflation hits over 3-year low: Are ECB rate cuts looming? (msn.com)

Next, does this sound like a soft landing in the US economy? Will even a 50 basis point cut in US interest rates get low-income shoppers spending like drunken sailors again?

Dollar General struggles as customers cut back on discretionary spending

August 29, 2024

Low-income shoppers are pulling back on spending, resulting in disappointing sales at Dollar General, which on Thursday lowered its sales and profit forecast for the year.

"We believe the softer sales trends are partially attributable to a core customer who feels financially constrained," Todd Vasos, Dollar General's chief executive officer stated. The company is continuing with a turnaround plan it embarked upon after he returned to Dollar General from retirement last year, the CEO added.

While multiple economic trends are positive, "this good news has not yet reached the wallets of Dollar General customers who remain very constrained and cautious," said retail analyst Neil Saunders. "They are buying less at Dollar General and are cutting back on more discretionary categories like seasonal and home products. This depletes sales but it also dilutes profitability as many of the harder-hit categories have higher margins," said Saunders, managing director of GlobalData.

The discount retailer now anticipates same-store sales to rise 1% to 1.6% this fiscal year, revised lower from its previous forecast of a 2% to 2.7% increase.

Dollar General may also be losing ground to other stores, including Walmart and Target.

Walmart earlier this month reported strong quarterly sales in drawing Americans grappling with increasing shelter and food costs. Likewise, deals in the grocery aisle helped Target reverse a year-long sales slide earlier this month.   

The earnings release comes after Dollar General agreed to pay $12 million and improve safety at its 20,000 stores nationwide to settle claims it put workers in danger with practices including blocking emergency exits.

In disclosing significant losses earlier in June, Dollar General said it plans to close almost 1,000 stores over the next several years.

Dollar General struggles as customers cut back on discretionary spending (msn.com)

Big Lots Is Considering Bankruptcy Filing After Sales Slump

• Discount chain may seek court protection within weeks
• Off-price retailer has suffered years of declining sales

By Eliza Ronalds-Hannon and Reshmi Basu

August 28, 2024 at 9:45 PM GMT+1 Updated on August 28, 2024 at 10:37 PM GMT+1

Off-price home goods retailer Big Lots Inc. is contemplating a potential bankruptcy filing after years of sales declines, according to people with knowledge of the plans.

The company is also seeking investors in a bid to avoid Chapter 11, according to one person familiar. The people asked not to be named sharing information about confidential matters. The plans aren’t final and Big Lots’ path may change.

More. Subscription required.

Big Lots Is Considering Bankruptcy, BIG Stock Falls - Bloomberg

Covid-19 Corner       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Here’s what to know about the COVID-19 summer surge

Miranda Nazzaro  Fri, August 30, 2024 at 3:11 AM GMT+1

The United States is facing a surge in COVID-19 infections once again as the summer season nears an end.

The late-summer spike has many Americans questioning how long the numbers will last, the signs and symptoms to look out for and when they can get the updated vaccines.

How bad is the COVID-19 summer surge?

As of Aug. 16, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) determined that COVID-19 infections were growing or likely to grow in 27 states.

It also said last week that its wastewater monitoring for COVID-19 shows levels are “very high” and have been on a general increase since the beginning of June.

Doctors have suggested the recent spike in COVID-19 infections could be one of the largest summer waves they have observed since the outbreak first started.

The CDC’s wastewater tracker increased to 8.86 on Aug. 17, marking a large jump from early May when the rate was 1.35. The peak rate of 9.56 occurred in July 2022.

Emergency room visits and diagnosis, hospitalizations and deaths have also increased since May, CDC data shows. Hospitalization rates for the week ending on Aug. 10 peaked at 4.6, up from a rate of 1.1 in early May. The rate dropped back down last week to 3.1, per the CDC.

Between Aug. 11 and 17, 2.5 percent of emergency room patients were diagnosed with COVID-19, according to agency data said.

The data collected by the federal agency is limited as hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity or hospital occupancy data to the federal government.

More

Here’s what to know about the COVID-19 summer surge (yahoo.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Scalable graphene technology could significantly enhance battery safety and performance

August 29, 2024

Researchers at Swansea University, in collaboration with Wuhan University of Technology, Shenzhen University, have developed a pioneering technique for producing large-scale graphene current collectors.

This breakthrough promises to significantly enhance the safety and performance of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), addressing a critical challenge in energy storage technology.

Published in Nature Chemical Engineering, the study details the first successful protocol for fabricating defect-free graphene foils on a commercial scale. These foils offer extraordinary thermal conductivity—up to 1,400.8 W m^–1 K^–1—nearly ten times higher than traditional copper and aluminum current collectors used in LIBs.

"This is a significant step forward for battery technology," said Dr. Rui Tan, co-lead author from Swansea University. "Our method allows for the production of graphene current collectors at a scale and quality that can be readily integrated into commercial battery manufacturing. This not only improves battery safety by efficiently managing heat but also enhances energy density and longevity."

One of the most pressing concerns in the development of high-energy LIBs, especially those used in electric vehicles, is thermal runaway—a dangerous scenario where excessive heat leads to battery failure, often resulting in fires or explosions. These graphene current collectors are designed to mitigate this risk by efficiently dissipating heat and preventing the exothermic reactions that lead to thermal runaway.

"Our dense, aligned graphene structure provides a robust barrier against the formation of flammable gases and prevents oxygen from permeating the battery cells, which is crucial for avoiding catastrophic failures," explained Dr. Jinlong Yang, co-lead author from Shenzhen University.

The newly developed process is not just a laboratory success but a scalable solution, capable of producing graphene foils in lengths ranging from meters to kilometers. In a significant demonstration of its potential, the researchers produced a 200-meter-long graphene foil with a thickness of 17 micrometers. This foil retained high electrical conductivity even after being bent over 100,000 times, making it ideal for use in flexible electronics and other advanced applications.

More

Scalable graphene technology could significantly enhance battery safety and performance (techxplore.com)

Next, coming soon to a tall building near you. Later, a AI version for solar power farms.

Window-cleaning robots hang out in New York for world-first deployment

By Paul Ridden  August 29, 2024

A 45-story office tower in New York has become the first in the world to deploy the Ozmo automated window cleaning system, where a platform dangled from the roof is home to robots that spritz the glass 3x faster than human cleaning crews.

The Ozmo setup essentially mounts a pair of Kuka robotic arms to a cleaning platform that hangs from the roof of a tower, and equips each with a brush head and water.

There are force sensors in play that help the cleaning bot to judge how fragile a window pane is, and apply the appropriate pressure for an efficient wash. The company reports that the window cleaning bot employs LiDAR sensors for localization and positioning, while artificial intelligence algorithms ensure stability even in gusty conditions.

At the moment, team Ozmo is controlled via a computer operator on the roof of the building, so there's still a role for human workers, but full autonomy is on the cards for the future. This will not only help fill a "growing labor shortage of window cleaners" but will also "keep humans out of harm's way."

Skyline Robotics has been developing and testing the system for a few years now, but the deployment at the 1133 Avenue of the Americas building in New York – which is owned and managed by the Durst Organization – represents the start of global rollout.

More

Window-cleaning robots hang out in New York for world-first deployment (newatlas.com)

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

This weekend’s music diversion. The almost totally unknown Maria Teresa Agnesi., sister of the 18^th century mathematician, who wrote the first ever summary of integral and differential calculus.   Approx. 4 minutes.

Maria Teresa Agnesi Pinottini: Harpsichord Concerto 1st Movement

Maria Teresa Agnesi Pinottini: Harpsichord Concerto 1st Movement - YouTube

Maria Teresa Agnesi Pinottini

Maria Teresa Agnesi Pinottini - Wikipedia

This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 14 minutes.

Fabi Calculates the Entire Endgame!

Fabi Calculates the Entire Endgame! (youtube.com)

This weekend’s final diversion.  The Sydney Opera House. Approx. 12 minutes. Next weekend, inside Buckingham Palace.

What's inside the Sydney Opera House?

What's inside the Sydney Opera House? - YouTube

The last official act of any government is to loot the treasury.

George Washington.

 

Is AI Dot.con 2.0? PCE Inflation Day. Dress Up Friday.

Baltic Dry Index. 1827  +72     Brent Crude  80.18

Spot Gold 2514            US 2 Year Yield 3.87  +0.04

In general, corruption tends to exist whenever governments have favors to extend, or something to sell.

Alan Greenspan.

Another end of month, time to dress up stocks and stock indexes once again. The latest spin and hype, no US or global recession. Ignore Nvidia, it will bounce back.

Well maybe, but maybe not, AI is starting to look like the dot.con bubble all over again.

Later today, the US central bank’s favourite measure of US inflation.

Hong Kong leads Asia markets climb after U.S. data calms recession fears; Australia nears all time high

Published Thu, Aug 29 2024 7:58 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets climbed Friday after economic data from the U.S. calmed recessionary fears, while investors also assessed a slew of data from Japan.

Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 231,000 from the prior week’s 232,000, but were slightly higher than the 230,000 expected by Dow Jones.

In addition, the second-quarter gross domestic product growth was revised higher to 3% from the initial 2.8% rate.

Inflation rate in Japan’s capital city of Tokyo rose to 2.6% from June’s 2.2%, hitting its highest since March.

The core inflation rate — which strips out prices of fresh food — rose 2.4%, higher than the 2.2% expected from a Reuters poll of economists. Tokyo’s inflation is widely considered to be a leading indicator of nationwide trends.

Stronger inflation numbers offer the Bank of Japan more room too tighten its monetary policy.

Unemployment in Japan rose to 2.7%, more than the Reuters estimate of 2.5%.

Retail sales in the country rose 2.6% year on year, lower than the 2.9% growth expected by Reuters and the revised 3.8% increase seen in June.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.3%, and the Topix also climbed 0.37% after the data release.

Hong Kong Hang Seng index gained 1.81%, leading markets in Asia, while mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 1.72%.

South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.6%, while the small-cap Kosdaq advanced 0.92%. South Korea’s retail sales dipped 1.9% month on month compared to June. On a year-on-year basis, retail sales fell 2.1%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.35%, coming within 30 points of its all-time closing high of 8,114.7.

Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to a new record, up 0.59% and closing at 41,335.05. Gains in Goldman Sachs, Intel and Visa helped lift the blue-chip average to a new high.

The S&P 500 ended the session just below the flatline, but the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.23%, dragged by shares of chipmaker Nvidia, which slid 6.4%.

Asia stock markets: Japan CPI, unemployment, US GDP (cnbc.com)

S&P 500 futures are little changed as traders brace for key inflation report: Live updates

Updated Fri, Aug 30 2024 8:05 PM EDT

S&P 500 futures were near the flatline Thursday night as investors prepared for a crucial inflation reading that’s closely watched by the Federal Reserve.

Futures linked to the broad market index ticked up by 0.06%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.2%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were little changed.

In extended trading, Ulta dropped about 7% after missing top and bottom line expectations in the second quarter, while athletic apparel retailer Lululemon Athletica gained 4% on better-than-expected earnings. Dell Technologies added 3% as its fiscal second quarter results beat estimates, aided by server sales.

The market has seen choppy trading action this week leading up to Nvidia’s quarterly results. The artificial intelligence darling slumped on Thursday, weighing on the S&P 500 and dragging the Nasdaq Composite lower. The Dow was the outlier among the three major averages, adding more than 240 points to close at a fresh record.

A new catalyst for stocks awaits on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET: the personal consumption expenditures price index. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate a 0.2% monthly increase in July for headline prices, or 2.5% on an annual basis. The core reading is expected to have gained 0.2% from the prior month, or 2.7% from 12 months earlier.

The Fed keeps a close eye on this metric, and it could still influence policymakers’ rate decision in September.

“The market is set to absorb the results of the PCE release, with consensus estimates focused on the core year-over-year report inching slightly higher at 2.7% following 2.6% for the previous print,” said LPL Financial’s chief global strategist Quincy Krosby.

“Because there are some Fed members suggesting they need more data to confirm that inflation is continuing on a downward path before agreeing to cut rates, any surprise indicating a hotter report could be negative for the market,” she added.

As August’s trading winds down, the S&P 500 is on pace for a nearly 1.3% gain during the month, while the Dow is on track to add 1.2%. The Nasdaq Composite is the sole loser of the three major averages, off by nearly 0.5% this month.

On the week, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are on pace for declines of 0.8% and 2%, respectively — the first losing week in three for both indexes. The Dow is on pace for its third positive week, up 0.4% in the period.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Friday’s PCE inflation report: Here’s how financial markets may react

Friday’s PCE report is set to reinforce the expectation that a first rate cut is imminent, but it may not provide much clarity on how fast and how far the Fed will ease: market analysts

Last Updated: Aug. 29, 2024 at 10:13 a.m. ET
First Published: Aug. 29, 2024 at 7:30 a.m. ET

The July personal consumption expenditures inflation report on Friday is likely to reassure investors that an initial interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve is in store for next month — but don’t expect the stock market to celebrate, according to market experts.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is expected to show that U.S. consumer prices ticked up slightly in July, complicating the timetable for the central bank to cut policy rates next month. Investors worry that the latest report may not provide enough clarity to the financial markets on how fast and how far the Fed will ease.

Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expect the headline PCE price index to remain steady at 2.5% year over year in July, while the core PCE, a more closely watched measure that strips out volatile food and energy costs, is forecast to drift higher to 2.7%, from 2.6% in the previous month. 

“The September cut is firm enough that the PCE trend is not going to change that,” said Burns McKinney, managing director and portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group. “The Fed has already made up their mind that they’ve already telegraphed very firmly and very dovishly that they are absolutely going to start the rate-cutting cycle in September.”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week gave his strongest signal yet, saying that “the time has come” for monetary easing as economic data over the past few months have convinced policy makers that inflation is firmly on the path back to the central bank’s 2% target. 

Some investors think the upcoming July inflation data, if in line with expectations, would make it hard to justify the Fed’s “sudden new embrace” of interest-rate cuts. “A single cut in September, okay. But to forecast multiple cuts off this [PCE] data seems unjustified,” said Barbara Rockefeller, president and chief economist at Rockefeller Treasury Services. 

But others say that the disinflation momentum could still be sustained despite the anticipated modest uptick in the core PCE. “Powell has always warned against getting too caught up in a single data point, and if you look at the trend, regardless of what [the data release] does, the [disinflation] trend has been pretty well locked in,” McKinney told MarketWatch via phone on Tuesday. 

More

Friday’s PCE inflation report: Here’s how financial markets may react - MarketWatch

Finally, yet more EV fire news.

Cybertruck Catches Fire After Running Into Fire Hydrant and Getting Wet

Wed 28 August 2024 at 9:18 pm BST

A Tesla Cybertruck burst into flames after crashing into a fire hydrant outside a Bass Pro Shop in Harlingen, Texas — and getting doused in copious amounts of water, igniting the battery.

As local news station Valley Central reports, first responders were optimistic that they had successfully battled the flames, only for the fire to resume after they stopped to spray the truck's battery with even more water.

It's unclear if any injuries resulted from the accident.

The incident highlights just how difficult it is to put out a burning EV — even if it happens to crash into a device intended to fight fires. Fire departments have had to change tactics, using full PPE due to toxic fumes, tapping multiple fire hydrants or multiple water tankers, and developing new solutions like EV fire-specific fire blankets.

Smoke Show

Ironically, Tesla had just released a detailed rescue sheet for its Cybertruck last week. The guide is designed for first responders, informing them where the vehicle's low and high-voltage power cables terminate.

In case of fire, Tesla advises responders not to "submerge vehicle to extinguish/cool battery fire."

"Use of firefighting foam is not recommended and only water should be used to cool the battery enclosure," the rescue sheet reads.

Over the years, first responders have found out the hard way that it takes far more water to put out an EV fire. In 2021, Austin Fire Department division chief Thayer Smith said that Tesla vehicles may take up to 30,000 to 40,000 gallons of water — roughly 40 times as much as is needed to put out a combustion engine car.

And with more EVs being produced than ever before, those kinds of incidents can be devastating. A lithium-ion battery fire is still extremely dangerous. In 2019, the family of a Tesla Model S owner, who died after being trapped inside his burning Model S, sued the carmaker, arguing that the car's retractable door handles malfunctioned.

While it's still unclear if anybody was hurt during the latest fire, we've already come across incidents involving the Cybertruck that didn't end well.

Earlier this month, a Texas driver died after his Cybertruck crashed into a culvert and caught fire.

Cybertruck Catches Fire After Running Into Fire Hydrant and Getting Wet (yahoo.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

The US could enter a recession if the Fed doesn't cut rates, strategists say

Thu, Aug 29, 2024, 2:02 PM GMT+1

The US economy risks a recession if the US Federal Reserve does not cut rates, according to Macquarie strategists in a Wednesday note.

Their assessment is based on US jobs data and consumer sentiment.

"We're not saying that a recession is coming, but absent Fed rate cuts that will take place, a recession would be much likelier," wrote Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry, FX and rates strategists at Macquarie, in a Wednesday note.

The US unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July from 4.1% in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board consumer sentiment report released on Tuesday showed "mixed feelings."

"Consumers' assessments of the current labor situation, while still positive, continued to weaken, and assessments of the labor market going forward were more pessimistic. This likely reflects the recent increase in unemployment," said Dana M. Peterson, the chief economist at The Conference Board, in a press release.

Consumers were also a bit less positive about future income, Peterson added.

"What was worrisome was that respondents saying that jobs were hard to get inched higher, while those saying jobs were plentiful edged lower," wrote the Macquarie strategists.

The spread between the two measures tracks the unemployment rate very closely, according to Macquarie's analysis.

This spread pushed to a new year-to-date high in the August survey. It sits at the widest it has been since March 2021 — when the unemployment rate was 6.1%.

"We think that it would be highly unlikely that the unemployment rate would not be rising against the widening of this spread," the Macquarie strategists wrote.

Markets have been pricing in interest rate cuts following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole last week that "the time has come for policy to adjust" — a clear signal that the central bank is poised to cut rates.

Macquarie is just one of the latest on Wall Street to weigh in on how the US jobs outlook could impact the Fed's rate decision, which could take down the current 5.25% to 5.50% target.

JPMorgan on Tuesday said the Fed is likely to deliver steep rate cuts because it's been "shaken" by a weakening labor market.

CME's FedWatch tool shows investors largely pricing in a 25-basis-point cut at the next Fed meeting held over two days from September 17.

The US could enter a recession if the Fed doesn't cut rates, strategists say (yahoo.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

A new Covid vaccine is available. Here’s why some people might not want it right away

August 28, 2024

New Covid vaccines were approved by U.S. regulators last week amid a continuing surge of the virus.

The updated shots are designed to target the latest Omicron variants, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recommended them for Americans aged six months and older.

After getting the OK from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), major manufacturers Pfizer and Moderna are slated to begin shipping immediately. Pfizer said the vaccines will be available in pharmacies, hospitals, and clinics nationwide in the coming days.

In a blog post, Moderna echoed that timeframe. A third manufacturer, Novavax, said last week that it is working with the FDA as the agency considers authorizing its latest formula vaccine for emergency use.

“Novavax’s intent is to provide access to our vaccine as a choice for consumers this season,” President and CEO John Jacobs said, in a statement.

Covid cases have spiked around the country, ahead of peak season with CDC data showing testing positivity rates hovering at around 18 percent in August - although fewer Americans are testing. Emergency department visits and hospitalizations were also up this month.

---- Health officials say getting vaccinated is especially important for certain groups. This includes those 65 and older; people who have yet to receive a vaccine; people who live in long-term care facilities; those risk of severe infection; and women who are pregnant, may become pregnant, or are breastfeeding.

However, under specific circumstances, the CDC advises some Americans to wait before getting the new shots.

If you just recovered from Covid, you may consider delaying your vaccine by three months.

In addition, if you have, or have recently had, multisystem inflammatory syndrome, the CDC says you should wait to get vaccinated until after recovery and until 90 days have passed since the diagnosis of MIS-A or MIS-C: the types of the syndrome in adults and children.

There are other reasons to wait. Vaccine protection wanes over time, and people may choose to hit pause before the next Covid wave hits. Respiratory viruses spread more easily indoors and cold air may weaken resistance to such viruses, according to Johns Hopkins Medicine.

The variants that spread could still change in the next few months, too.

More

A new Covid vaccine is available. Here’s why some people might not want it right away (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Global solar generation overtakes wind for longest ever stretch

By Gavin Maguire  August 29, 2024 6:59 AM GMT+1

LITTLETON, Colorado, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Global electricity generation from solar farms has exceeded generation from wind farms since May, marking the longest ever stretch when solar power has been the top source of utility-scale renewable electricity worldwide.

Solar electricity generation exceeded wind generation in May by 1.65 terawatt hours (TWh), and in June by 9.57 TWh, according to energy think tank Ember.

The data on global generation for the month of July has not yet been released, but will most likely show an even larger generation surplus for solar assets given that July is the peak month for solar output across the northern hemisphere.

August data is also likely to show solar generation topping wind output, as August is usually the second highest solar generation month and also marks the typical annual low point for global wind generation due to low wind speeds at turbine level.

Previously, solar power generation only exceeded wind generation in August and June of 2023 and has never before strung together such a sustained stretch of higher generation.

However, once solar output levels dip from next month due to the changing angle of the sun's rays, wind output will regain its spot as the top renewable power globally, aided by rising wind speeds as winter sets in across Europe, North America and Northern Asia.

And for 2024 as a whole, total wind-powered electricity generation will likely be at least 30% greater than total solar generation, given that the peak wind generation period is during winter when wind output can be more than twice solar output.

Wind farms have been by far the largest source of renewable electricity output for over 20 years, and in 2023 generated 2,311 TWh of electricity compared to 1,632 TWh by solar assets.

However, solar generation has grown twice as quickly as wind generation over the past five years, due in large part to the far lower cost and speedier construction times of solar farms relative to wind projects.

Solar's stronger momentum has continued in 2024, with solar generation during the first half of 2024 climbing by 26.5% from the first half of 2023, compared to 8% growth in wind output.

More

Global solar generation overtakes wind for longest ever stretch | Reuters

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and a holiday weekend in America. But what will September and October bring for stocks, the global economy, two continuing never ending wars, de-dollarisation, soaring US federal debt? Comedy showtime starts in the US presidential election from next week.  Have a great weekend everyone.

A cigarette is a pinch of tobacco rolled in paper with fire at one end and a fool at the other.

George Bernard Shaw.