Baltic Dry Index. 997 Fri. Brent Crude 74.63
Spot Gold 2604 US 2 Year Yield 4.24 -0.07
It takes some skill to spoil a breakfast - even the English can't do it.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
Note, the next LIR update is on January 2nd. A happy, healthy and prosperous 2025 to all.
In the global stock casinos, a profit taking pause or something more? Something more, I think.
“I really think we’re going to take
a pause this next year,” Jeremy Siegel, senior economist at WisdomTree
and emeritus professor of finance at University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton
School of Business, said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.”
“I think the probability of a correction
next year, which is defined as a 10% drop in the S&P, is getting higher,”
Siegel said. “The major forces to propel things upward I think have already
been built in.”
Stock market today: Dec. 30, 2024
Asia-Pacific markets mostly lower after China
manufacturing growth misses expectations
Published Mon, Dec 30 2024 6:54 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell on the
last trading day of the year as investors assessed China’s manufacturing growth
that missed expectations.
China’s purchasing managers’ index for
December came in at 50.1, missing expectations, signaling that Beijing’s
stimulus measures were not sufficient to meaningfully boost the country’s
ailing economy.
Analysts polled by Reuters forecast a
reading of 50.3, the same as November PMI. A reading above 50 indicates
expansion in activity, while a figure below that level points to contraction.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index ended a
shortened trading day marginally higher at 20,059.95. Mainland China’s CSI 300
fell 0.6%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped
0.92% to close at 8,159.1 on a shortened trading day.
Taiwan’s Taiex fell 0.67%.
Japan and South Korea’s stock markets are
closed for the New Year’s Eve holiday. South Korea’s consumer inflation
accelerated in December, rising 1.9% year on year. CPI came in at 1.5% in November.
On a month-on-month basis prices rose 0.4%.
Overnight in the U.S., stocks moved lower
as a banner year for investors appears to be ending on a sour note.
Trading was choppy throughout the day, and
the Dow was down more than 700 points at session lows. There was no apparent
news catalyst for Monday’s decline, and trading was expected to be light given
the shortened week
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lose
418.48 points, or 0.97%, to close at 42,573.73. The S&P 500 fell 1.07% to
5,906.94, and the Nasdaq
Composite slid 1.19% to 19,486.78.
Asia markets live: China manufacturing data, South Korea CPI
Stock futures tick lower as S&P 500 closes out
second year in a row with 20% gain: Live updates
Updated Tue, Dec 31 2024 7:00 PM EST
Stock futures were slightly lower ahead of
the final trading session of 2024, following another booming year for Wall
Street that hoisted the S&P
500 to its second consecutive annual gain exceeding 20%, spurred by
enthusiasm for rate cuts, economic strength and artificial intelligence.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were
little changed, while S&P
500 futures edged down 0.1%. Nasdaq-100 futures lost
nearly 0.1%.
The S&P has surged more than 23.8%,
putting it solidly on pace for its second consecutive gain above 20%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has
added nearly 13%, while the Nasdaq
Composite has outperformed with a 29.8% advance.
The story surrounding AI and its potential
productivity boost powered significant gains for the major averages throughout
the year, pushing “Magnificent Seven” stocks such AI chip darling Nvidia and
iPhone giant Apple to new highs. The megacap technology gains also lifted the
major averages to record levels.
Stocks also benefited as the Federal
Reserve began cutting rates on the heels of one of its most aggressive hiking
cycles in recent history, spurring hopes for a period of economic growth as
borrowing costs ease. Since September, the central bank has lowered rates by
100 basis points. Although further rate cuts are expected in the new year, the
Fed’s pace may slow from initial expectations.
President-elect Donald Trump’s successful
reelection campaign in November also proved a boon
for the market, fueling hopes of deregulation, lower corporate tax rates
and a focus on the U.S. economy, which has remained resilient. Expectations for
a cryptocurrency-friendly administration powered
bitcoin to a record above $108,000. Tesla was another big
election winner due to CEO Elon Musk’s close ties to Trump.
The Nasdaq and S&P have surged 7.1%
and 2.5%, respectively, this quarter and are both on pace for a fifth
consecutive positive quarter for the first time since 2021. The Dow is up a
mere 0.6% over the same period for its fourth positive quarter in five.
Despite the strong year-to-date
performance, Wall Street is entering the final day of the year on sour note as
the market has lost some of its momentum in recent sessions. December has been
a weak stretch for equities as investors take profits in some of 2024′s biggest
winners and fears mount over rising rates into year-end. The Dow is down 5.2%
for its worst month since September 2022. The Nasdaq is up 1.4%, while the
S&P is down 2.1% and headed for its worst month since April.
More
Stock market today: Live updates
In other news.
South Korea’s impeached President Yoon faces
arrest as court issues warrant, deepening political turmoil
Published Mon, Dec 30 2024 10:17 PM EST
South Korea’s impeached President Yoon Suk
Yeol could become the first sitting president of the country to face an arrest
after a court issued a warrant against him, domestic media reported.
The Seoul Western District Court issued
the detention warrant against Yoon, Korea Times reported, after he failed
to show up for questioning, despite multiple summons by a joint
investigation unit comprising South Korea’s police and the Corruption
Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials.
The warrant empowers the CIO to take Yoon
into custody for questioning within 48 hours.
Yoon’s legal team said it plans to file an
injunction with the Constitution Court to suspend the issuance of the warrant,
according to a Google translation of a Yonhap report in Korean. A legal representative for
Yoon said the warrant was “illegal and invalid” because
investigating insurrection charges was outside the CIO’s jurisdiction.
A separate warrant allows the CIO to
search Yoon’s residence. Citing security concerns, the Presidential
Security Service has blocked access to the presidential office compound and
Yoon’s official residence, according to news agency Yonhap.
South Korean presidents do not enjoy
immunity from insurrection or treason charges. Moreover, presidents are not
allowed to obstruct a court-issued detention or arrest warrant, according to
CIO Chief Oh Dong-woon.
More
South Korea court issues warrant for impeached President Yoon
Finally, in year-end news, US credit card defaults are rising again. There looks like trouble ahead in 2025.
US credit card defaults jump to highest level
since 2010
Consumers are ‘tapped out’ after years of
high inflation and as pandemic-era savings have evaporated
29 December 2024
Defaults on US credit card loans have hit the highest level since the wake of
the 2008 financial crisis, in a sign that lower-income consumers’ financial
health is waning after years of high inflation.
Credit card lenders wrote off $46bn in
seriously delinquent loan balances in the first nine months of 2024, up 50 per
cent from the same period in the year prior and the highest level in 14 years,
according to industry data collated by BankRegData. Write-offs, which occur
when lenders decide it is unlikely a borrower will make good on their debts,
are a closely watched measure of significant loan distress.
“High-income households are fine, but the
bottom third of US consumers are tapped out,” said Mark Zandi, the head of
Moody’s Analytics. “Their savings rate right now is zero.”
The sharp rise in defaults is a sign of
how consumers’ personal finances are becoming increasingly stretched after
years of high inflation, and as the Federal Reserve has left borrowing costs at
elevated levels.
Banks have yet to report their
fourth-quarter numbers but the early signs are that more consumers are falling
significantly behind on what they owe. Capital One, the US’s third-largest
credit card lender, after JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, recently said that as
of November its annualised credit card write-off rate, which is the percentage
of its overall loans that are marked as unrecoverable, hit 6.1 per cent, up
from 5.2 per cent a year ago.
“Consumer spending power has been diminished,”
said Odysseas Papadimitriou, head of consumer credit research firm WalletHub.
US consumers exited pandemic-era lockdowns
flush with cash and ready to spend. Credit card lenders were happy to help,
signing up customers who might not have qualified in the past based on income,
but looked like safe debtors because their bank accounts were flush with cash.
Credit card balances soared, rising a
combined $270bn in 2022 and 2023, and pushing the total US consumers owed on
credit cards above $1tn for the first time in mid-2023.
That spending along with
coronavirus-induced supply chain bottlenecks led to a burst of inflation,
prompting the Fed to boost borrowing costs starting in 2022.
Copying Higher balances and
interest rates have left Americans who cannot pay off their credit card bills
in full paying $170bn in interest in the past 12 months ending in September.
That sucked up a portion of the excess
cash that was in consumers’ bank accounts, particularly those of low-income
consumers, and as a result, more of those borrowers are struggling to pay back
their credit card debts.
Copying Hopes that the US central
bank will rapidly slash interest rates in 2025 after cuts this year were dashed
last week, when officials predicted only half a percentage point of rate cuts
next year, compared with a forecast of 1 percentage point three months earlier.
In a sign of how consumers are struggling,
even after writing off nearly $60bn in consumer credit card debt in the past
year, another $37bn remains in consumers’ cards that is at least one month
overdue.
Credit card delinquency rates, which are
seen as a precursor to write-offs, peaked in July, according to data from
Moody’s, but have only fallen slightly and remain nearly a percentage point
higher than they were on average in the year before the pandemic.
“Delinquencies are pointing to more pain
ahead,” said WalletHub’s Papadimitriou.
US president-elect Donald Trump’s threat
of wide-ranging tariffs, which could increase inflation and interest rates,
would be “two problematic things for the consumer in 2025”, he added.
US credit card
defaults jump to highest level since 2010
San Francisco house prices plunge amid widespread
tech layoffs
By Brooke Kato Published Dec. 28, 2024, 3:45 p.m. ET
The Golden City is losing its shine.
Housing prices in San Francisco have
plunged to pre-pandemic levels amid widespread layoffs in the tech
sector, SFGATE reports.
Despite still being one of the more
expensive metropolitan areas in the US, prices for condominiums and co-ops in
the city were down 14.7% from May 2022 and now average $986,000.
Those prices have not been seen since
2015, according to Zillow
data analyzed by Wolf Street.
Single-family homes are down 15.4% from
their peak in 2022, now at an average of $1.39 million, according to data
provided to SFGATE by a Zillow representative.
According to the outlet, condo prices
doubled between 2012 and 2022, but have now declined by 30% in the past two
years.
The Millennium Tower, notorious for
being the leaning tower of San Francisco, saw a 44% decrease in price per unit.
In September, SFGATE reports, one condo sold for $615,000. A decade prior, it
sold for $1.1 million.
The decrease in housing costs coincides
with widespread tech layoffs, according to
Wolf Street, which reported that the “Information” industry saw a 20% decrease
in its workforce over more than two years since its peak.
In the “Professional, Scientific, and
Technical Services” industry, there was a 7% decrease in employees compared to
June 2022.
According to SFGATE, there were 10,200
permanent layoffs filed in the city during 2023.
In a recent report, the National
Association of Realtors (NAR) stated that home prices across the country are
predicted to go up in 2025, albeit much slower than years prior, estimating a
2% increase in cost to a median of $410,700.
“Home buyers will have more success next
year,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist and senior vice president of
research, said in the report.
“The worst of the affordability challenges
are over as more inventory, stable mortgage rates and continued job and income
growth pave the way for more Americans to achieve homeownership.”
San Francisco house prices plunge amid widespread tech layoffs
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Over
200,000 shops to close in 2025 as retail ‘permacrisis’ takes hold
Monday
30 December 2024 2:34 pm
Over
17,000 retail jobs are set to disappear next year, along with over 200,000
stores, as the sector’s decade-long
crisis continues, according to a top retail body.
Online
shopping, a Covid-19 hangover and high taxes are compounding a problem that
began with the financial crisis in 2008, according to the Centre for Retail
Research (CRR).
With
many out of the habit of high street shopping, shops have been struggling with
a lack of in-store customers – even by early 2023, customer footfall was 10 per
cent lower than in 2019, and in major cities even less.
Brits
have instead turned to experiences like meals out, city breaks, gym memberships
and subscriptions to TV Channels, leaving less to spend in shops.
Around
85,000 shops have closed in the last six years, according to the CRR.
The
British Retail Consortium (BRC) expect retail costs to rise by £7bn across the
industry next year due to a combination of the minimum wage increase, the
packaging levy and higher national insurance costs.
“Businesses
now face tough decisions: do they absorb the costs, pass them on through higher
prices, or find other ways to cut back?,” retail economist Tim Black said.
“In
retail and hospitality, the challenge is especially tough… there’s no real room
to absorb higher costs,” Black added.
---- Business
rates are also set to rise next year. While Labour have promised to reform the
entire system in 2026, there
is concern that this will be too late for many businesses.
Alex
Baldock, chief executive of electrical retailer Currys has said: “The
rates relief proposed so far isn’t just too little, too late, but will actually
leave many retailers worse off.”
More
Over
200,000 shops to close in 2025 as retail 'permacrisis' takes hold
Chinese
youth flock to civil service, but slow economy puts 'iron rice bowl' jobs at
risk
By Laurie Chen December 30, 20241:06 AM GMT
BEIJING,
Dec 30 (Reuters) - A record 3.4 million young Chinese flocked to the civil
service exam this year, lured by the prospect of lifetime job security and
perks including subsidised housing as an economic slowdown batters the private
sector and youth unemployment remains
high.
Applicant
numbers, which surged by over 400,000 from last year and have tripled since
2014, reflect the huge demand for stability from disillusioned Gen Z Chinese
and the lack of attractive
options in
the private sector even though local governments are struggling to pay wages
due to a fiscal crisis.
Klaire,
a master's student in Beijing, took the notoriously competitive exam in early
December, studying for nine hours a day and spending 980 yuan ($134) on online
tutoring.
She
cited social prestige and stability as major factors why she is only applying
for government or state-owned enterprise (SOE) jobs. Klaire has also seen
colleagues get laid off during a previous tech internship.
"I
only want to pass the exam and not worry about what happens next," said
the 24-year-old, withholding her surname for privacy reasons.
"Despite
personally knowing civil servants who haven't been paid for months, I still
applied because I don't wish to make lots of money."
If
she passes the exam, she will have a further interview as well as political
background and physical checks, with the final outcome expected around April.
Layoffs
are rare in China's civil service, earning it the "iron rice bowl"
moniker, though individuals can be dismissed for disciplinary violations.
"The
current leadership has no intent of reducing the size of public sector workers,
who are the backbone of regime stability," said Alfred Wu, associate
professor at National University of Singapore.
Most
civil service openings have an age limit of 35 and offer subsidised housing and
social insurance, a major attraction for graduates disillusioned by the paucity
of private sector job opportunities.
Chinese youth flock to civil service, but slow economy puts 'iron rice bowl' jobs at risk | Reuters
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Five Covid symptoms you may notice at the dinner table
28 December 2024
Health experts are urging
the public to be vigilant for five specific symptoms of Covid that could
manifest during meal times, distinguishing it from other common seasonal
ailments. Amidst high COVID-19 cases in the UK,
alongside respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), flu, and norovirus, there's
growing concern over a potential "quademic" this winter.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) issued an update, stating: "We
see cases of flu, RSV, COVID-19 and norovirus throughout the year, but in
winter they circulate at the same time and can reach high levels. We also track
other respiratory viruses – rhinovirus, adenovirus, human metapneumovirus
(hMPV) and parainfluenza – that can also peak over the autumn and winter
months."
Identifying the correct
illness is crucial for treatment and preventing further spread. As such, the
UKHSA has highlighted key Covid symptoms to watch out for.
While the virus may not
cause as "severe" an illness as during the early pandemic days, it
continues to result in "severe illness, hospitalisations, and
deaths", particularly among those with weakened immune systems,
pre-existing health conditions, and the elderly. The health authority
explained: "It is normal and expected for viruses to genetically change
over time and the new COVID-19 variants, much like previous variants, can
spread easily through droplets released when an infected person coughs, sneezes
or speaks. The autumn COVID-19 vaccines are our best defence against serious
illness."
It also recognised that
Covid symptoms have evolved, noting five particular signs that might become
evident while eating: a sore throat, loss of appetite, nausea, alterations in
sense of taste, and changes in sense of smell. According to UKHSA, though Covid
symptoms may mirror those of a cold, they could be paired with fever or chills,
a continuous cough, shortness of breath, fatigue, muscle aches, headache, a
congested nose, and diarrhoea.
Currently, those who are
65 and older, reside in care homes for the elderly, or are part of a clinical
risk group from the age of six months, can access the COVID-19 vaccine through
the NHS.
More
Five Covid symptoms you may notice at the dinner table
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
2024 progress
report: Three in ten new homes have solar power
December
24, 2024
The
introduction of more stringent rules on energy efficiency in new homes in
England has driven a surge in solar installations – though they can be of
relatively small capacity compared to retrofits. The proportion of new
homes and buildings that come with solar photovoltaic panels included has more
than doubled in the last twelve months.
SEUK
estimates that 36,506 newbuild homes were completed in England over the third
quarter of this year, the latest for which figures are available.[1] Figures
from the Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS), the standards body for
smaller-scale sustainable energy systems, say that 10,720 installations were
made on newbuild properties over the same period. Assuming that all of these
were on homes indicates that 29% of these new homes are solar powered.
That
is a dramatic jump compared to only 5,731 of 44,310 newbuilds sporting solar
panels in the last quarter of 2023 – only 13%.
“It’s
a reasonable assumption that at least a third of new English homes now have
solar power, given the clear trend in the data. It will certainly be a much
higher proportion by the end of 2025, when the transition to the new
regulations should be complete. Comparable rules in Scotland led to 80% of new
homes having panels fitted,” said Chris Hewett, Chief Executive of the trade
association Solar Energy UK.
“There
has been much attention lately on the next iteration of the Building Standards,
the Future Homes Standard, which we expect will all but mandate substantial
solar installations on new homes. But is important to recognise how the
existing rules are driving growth in the industry, while cutting emissions and
bills for homeowners,” he added.
The
increase results from revised ‘Part L’ rules on residential energy efficiency,
which applied in full force from June 2023. Although welcome, a consequent fall
in the average capacity of systems is rather less so.
“Before
the new rules, fitting solar power to new homes in England was driven by either
local planning requirements or the preference of self-builders. Planning
conditions were applied on a site-wide basis and tended to mean that solar
installations were concentrated on a few homes, to comply in the most
convenient and cost-effective way. In contrast, self-builders would ensure that
their installation was of the right size to make a cost-effective contribution
towards meeting their own energy requirements,” said Stuart Elmes, chief
executive of roof-integrated solar manufacturer Viridian Solar.
So, as
the proportion of new homes with solar PV built by private developers has
risen, average capacity for newbuilds has declined, going from about 4
kilowatts at the end of 2023 to 2.8kW in Q3 this year.
Meanwhile,
the number of retrofits has hovered around 8,000 to 10,000 each month in
England for more than a year. Driven by a combination of high energy prices,
low installation costs and environmental concerns, the number remains far
greater than before the energy price crisis.
More
2024 progress
report: Three in ten new homes have solar power - Solar Power Portal
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Money
is a singular thing. It ranks with love as man's greatest source of joy. And
with death as his greatest source of anxiety. Over all history it has oppressed
nearly all people in one of two ways: either it has been abundant and very
unreliable, or reliable and very scarce.
John
Kenneth Galbraith.
