Baltic
Dry Index. 1941 +22 Brent Crude 71.06
Spot
Gold 2497 U S 2 Year Yield 3.66 -0.09
Neither a state nor a bank ever have had unrestricted power of
issuing paper money without abusing that power.
David Ricardo.
The
latest US jobs report may have only missed by about 40,000, but add in the
downward revisions to June and July, plus full time employment falling by 438,000
and it’s hard to pretend that the US economy isn’t rolling over into recession,
or if as I suspect, entered recession back in April or May.
Crude
oil and the US treasury 2 year to 10 year yield spread are now suggesting
recession.
A
very difficult gambling week in the all too bubbly stock casinos lies directly
ahead.
What a time for the UK's new amateur government to start raising taxes.
S&P
500 tumbles Friday to post worst week since 2023, Nasdaq drops 2% for worst
weekly performance since 2022: Live updates
Updated
Fri, Sep 6 2024 4:36 PM EDT
The S&P 500 dropped Friday,
notching its worst week since March 2023, as investors assessed the fallout
from a weak August jobs report and ditched leading technology stocks.
The
broad index slid 1.73% to settle at 5,408.42, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 2.55%
to close at 16,690.83. The tech-heavy index ended the session more than 10% off
its record close. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average fell 410.34 points, or 1.01%, to end at
40,345.41.
“It’s
a sentiment-driven move that’s largely driven by growth concerns,” said Emily
Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.
“The market’s oscillating between this idea of is bad news bad news, or is bad
news good news, and the sense that it may revive hopes that the Fed moves more
aggressively than markets anticipate.”
Megacap
tech stocks tumbled as investors dumped risk assets amid mounting worries about
the health of the U.S. economy.
Amazon slid 3.7% and Alphabet slumped 4%.
Meanwhile, Meta Platforms lost
more than 3%. Broadcom shed
10% on lackluster
current-quarter guidance. Other semiconductor names fell in sympathy,
with Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices dropping
about 4% each. The VanEck
Semiconductor ETF (SMH) declined 4% and posted its worst
week since March 2020.
Friday’s
moves closed out a rocky week for equity markets. The S&P 500 registered a
4.3% decline and its worst week since March 2023. The Nasdaq shed 5.8% for its
worst week since 2022, while the 30-stock Dow has slumped 2.9%.
Fresh
August jobs data added fuel to concerns of a slowing labor market. A bout of
weak data has sparked worries about the health of the economy, spooking markets
and denting risk appetite in recent weeks. Nonfarm payrolls grew by
142,000, versus a 161,000 gain expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
However, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%, in line with expectations.
“The
market in general is looking for direction, and that’s going to come from the
Federal Reserve,” said Charles Ashley, portfolio manager at Catalyst Capital
Advisors.
Investors
widely expect the Fed to cut rates by at least a quarter-percentage point at
the conclusion of its policy meeting later this month, but softening labor
market trends have boosted bets that the central bank could go bigger. Traders
are split on whether the Fed will cut by a quarter- or half-percentage point,
according to CME Group FedWatch Tool.
Stock
market news for September 6, 2024 (cnbc.com)
European
stocks end week down 2.5%, worst since early August slump
Published
Fri, Sep 6 2024 2:32 AM EDT
LONDON
— European stocks closed lower Friday afternoon, paring earlier gains after a
weaker than expected U.S. jobs report clouded global sentiment.
The
pan-European Stoxx 600 closed
down 1.15%, with all major bourses and almost all sectors ending in the red.
Tech and mining stocks saw the biggest losses, shedding 2.39% and 2.41%,
respectively. Health care stocks were a rare outlier, up just 0.02%.
The
benchmark ended the week down 2.5%, marking its biggest weekly loss since the
early August sell-off.
The
fall follows declines on Wall Street after the August jobs report showed
payrolls rose 142,000, less than the 161,000 forecast by analysts polled by Dow
Jones. The unemployment rate met expectations for a decline to 4.2% from 4.3%.
---- A slew of data
from the U.S. has already come in weaker than expected this week,
including manufacturing
surveys, jobs
openings and private
sector payrolls, fueling bets that the Fed will cut by 50 rather than 25
basis points at its Sept. 18 meeting. CME Group’s FedWatch tool last put the
probability of a 50 basis point cut at nearly 50%, higher than before the
latest release.
In
Europe, Volvo Cars slid
to its lowest level since January. The Swedish automaker said
on Thursday that it would scale back its medium-term margin and
revenue targets, along with its aim of selling all electric and plug-in hybrid
vehicles by 2023. Shares closed down 5.7%.
Investors
are also monitoring news that the European Union Aviation Safety Agency has
ordered inspections of the Rolls-Royce manufactured
engines on Airbus A350-1000 aircraft, used by numerous airlines. That comes
after a Cathay Pacific A350 flight from Hong Kong to Zurich was forced to land
because of a fire in the fuel system, triggering
a fleet-wide inspection and the replacement of numerous engine parts.
Next
week, U.K. employment and wage data and economic growth figures will be
released, and the next monetary policy meeting for the European Central Bank
will take place following its summer break.
The
ECB is widely expected to resume the path of interest rate cuts following
a pause
in July.
Europe
markets: U.S. jobs report, Volvo Cars, A350 inspections (cnbc.com)
August
payrolls grew by a less-than-expected 142,000, but unemployment rate ticked
down to 4.2%
Published
Fri, Sep 6 2024 8:30 AM EDT
The
U.S. economy created slightly fewer jobs than expected in August, reflecting a
slowing labor market while also clearing the way for the Federal Reserve to
lower interest rates later this month.
Nonfarm
payrolls expanded by 142,000 during the month, up from 89,000 in July and below
the 161,000 consensus forecast from Dow Jones, according to a report
Friday from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.
At
the same time, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, as expected.
The
labor force expanded by 120,000 for the month, helping push the jobless level
down by 0.1 percentage point, though the labor force participation rate held at
62.7%. An alternative measure that includes discouraged workers and those
holding part-time jobs for economic reasons edged up to 7.9%, its highest
reading since October 2021.
The
household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate and is often
more volatile than the survey of establishments, showed employment growth of
168,000. The balance, though, tilted toward part-time employment, which
increased by 527,000, while full-time fell by 438,000.
---- While the August
numbers were close to expectations, the previous two months saw substantial
downward revisions. The BLS cut July’s total by 25,000, while June fell to
118,000, a downward revision of 61,000.
---- In a speech Friday morning, New York Fed
President John Williams endorsed rate cuts.
“With
the economy now in equipoise and inflation on a path to 2 percent, it is now
appropriate to dial down the degree of restrictiveness in the stance of policy
by reducing the target range for the federal funds rate,” Williams said in
remarks before the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
Jobs report
August 2024: (cnbc.com)
Treasury
yields fall after weak jobs report
Published
Fri, Sep 6 2024 4:18 AM EDT
Treasury
yields fell Friday after August’s nonfarm payrolls report showed an easing
labor market, fueling concerns of an economic slowdown.
The
yield on the 10-year Treasury was
1 basis point lower at 3.723%. The 2-year Treasury yield dropped
9 basis points to 3.665%.
Yields
and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.
Nonfarm
payrolls expanded by
142,000 in August, the Labor Department reported Friday. Economists
surveyed by Dow Jones expected an increase of 161,000 on the month, and
forecast the unemployment rate eased slightly to 4.2%. The unemployment rate
ticked down 4.2%, meeting the Dow Jones estimate.
That
comes after data released Thursday showed that private payrolls grew by 99,000
in August, far lower than the 140,000 estimate. The figures renewed concerns
about an economic downturn and a softening labor market, which were first
prompted by July’s weaker-than-expected jobs report.
Weekly
initial jobless claims meanwhile fell from the previous week, figures that were
also released Thursday showed.
The
data comes ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting, which is set to conclude
with an interest rate decision on Sept. 18. Markets are expecting the Fed to
cut rates then, and were last pricing in a 57% chance of a 25-basis-point rate
cut and a 43% probability of a 50-basis-point cut, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Treasury
yields fall after weak jobs report (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
Eurozone
second-quarter economic growth revised down
6 September 2024
The eurozone economy's growth in the second quarter
this year was slightly smaller than previously estimated after the EU's
statistics agency on Friday revised its data.
The 20-country single currency zone's recorded
economic growth of 0.2 percent between April and June from the previous
quarter, down from the 0.3 percent estimate in July.
Eurostat also revised its figure for the 27-country
European Union's economy, which expanded by 0.2 percent, slightly lower than the
previous estimate of 0.3 percent.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet and Bloomberg had
forecast the eurozone economy to grow by 0.2 percent before the first estimate
was published in July.
The revisions will likely add to concerns about the eurozone,
especially over Germany, Europe's largest economy, which is weighing on the
area's performance.
Germany's output contracted by 0.1 percent in the
second quarter, official data showed.
Eurozone second-quarter economic growth revised down (msn.com)
Once the envy of the world, Germany’s car
brands now weigh heavily on its struggling economy
Published Fri, Sep 6 2024 1:11 AM EDT
Germany’s car industry was once recognized
around the world for its high-quality, innovative combustion engine cars.
Owning a German car was a luxury and status symbol. And carmakers were
thriving, boosting the country’s economy.
But the picture has since become bleaker.
The latest example are the developments at
Volkswagen — which earlier this week said it was
no longer able to rule out plant closures in its native Germany and felt
it may need to end
its employment protection agreement that has been in place in the
country since 1994.
“For German carmakers that were the
unchallenged technological market leaders in the sector for close to 140 years
and barely had to worry about sales or competition, this is an unfamiliar
situation,” Dr. Andreas Ries, global head of automotive at KPMG, told CNBC in
translated comments.
Now, the industry is undergoing its
biggest transformation yet, he added.
How are German automakers faring?
Sentiment in the automotive industry has
been choppy in recent years, historical data from the Ifo institute shows. In
August, sentiment pulled back once more to negative 24.7 points, according
to data released on
Wednesday. Business expectations for the coming six months were “extremely
pessimistic,” Ifo said.
Volkswagen is not alone in its struggles.
In the latest set of earnings releases,
Mercedes car division cut its annual
profit margin forecast, while the BMW’s automotive segment said its profit
margin in the second quarter was lower than expected. Porsche cuts its 2024
outlook, albeit attributing that to a shortage of
special aluminum alloys.
Issues in the automotive sector may also
have spillover effects into the wider German economy, which has been teetering
around — and in — recession territory throughout this and last year. In the
second quarter of 2024, Germany’s gross domestic product was down 0.1% compared
to the previous quarter.
“The statement ‘When the German automotive
sector has a cough, Germany has the flu’ … describes the current situation
well,” KPMG’s Ries said.
The auto industry doesn’t just include the
big players, but thousands of medium, small and tiny businesses across the
country, he explained, identifying it is one of the most important industries
in the country.
More
Covid-19
Corner
This section will
continue until it becomes unneeded.
Chinese lab linked to Covid leak may have also
released ANOTHER deadly virus, new research claims
By Matthew Phelan Senior Science Reporter For
Dailymail.Com
Published: 16:54, 5
September 2024
The Chinese lab that
the FBI believes likely leaked Covid-19 may have also released a 'highly
evolved' strain of polio in 2014.
A bombshell new study
suggests that this polio strain, which infected a four-year-old boy amid a
wider viral outbreak in China's Anhui province, is '99
percent' identical to a polio variant that was stored 200 miles away, during
that same time period, at the infamous Wuhan Institute of Virology.
Researchers at France's Pasteur Institute
cannot say with certainty where this strain, dubbed 'WIV14,' originated. But
they insisted two possibilities 'must be explored' — including the chance
that WIV14 polio originated within the Wuhan institute itself.
'The findings underscore
the shocking unsafe state of global virology research,' Harvard-trained
molecular biologist Dr Richard Ebright, who was not involved with the research,
told DailyMail.com.
The Pasteur researchers
suspect that WIV14 polio, so named by the Wuhan scientists who first catalogued
the strain, likely evolved from a well-preserved, 1950s strain of the virus
used — almost exclusively — in vaccine production and laboratory settings.
The Wuhan lab's rough
proximity to Anhui province and its burgeoning reputation for lax safety protocols have also added weight to this possible
explanation.
If true, the theory would
join a chorus of outcry over safety lapses at China's state-run infectious
disease lab, whose US funding was cut last year by the Biden White House amid ongoing scrutiny on Capitol Hill over its role in the Covid-19 pandemic.
Although a global
vaccination regime implemented across more than half a century has largely succeeded in eradicating the scourge of
polio, cases have bloomed in
conflict zones over the past few years, including Gaza, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
According to the UN's World Health Organization (WHO), 125 positive samples of polio appeared in
Afghanistan last year, to China's west, with 34 more cases in 2024.
And for the first time a
decade, polio remerged in the United States in 2022, with the virus being detected in sewage over 70
times during testing
in in New York
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Hydrogen stored in iron: A cheap, scalable grid battery for the
winter
By Abhimanyu Ghoshal August 30, 2024
While hydrogen's high energy per mass makes it an excellent fuel,
it's awfully hard and
expensive to store long-term. That could change, thanks to
the work of researchers at Switzerland's ETH Zurich. They've worked out a way
to store hydrogen in ordinary steel-walled containers for months without losing
it into the atmosphere – using iron.
The research team led by Wendelin Stark, Professor of Functional
Materials at ETH Zurich, hit upon this method by drawing from the steam-iron
process of producing hydrogen, first
invented in 1784.
The group's storage solution is especially suitable in places like
Switzerland, where solar power is abundant in the summer, and scarce in the
winter.
Surplus solar power is used to split water to produce hydrogen in
the summer; it's then streamed into stainless steel reactors filled with iron
ore at 752 °F (400 °C). The hydrogen extracts oxygen from the iron oxide, so
you're left with iron and water in the reactor, ready to store without
expending a lot of energy.
Steam is fed into the reactor to retrieve the stored hydrogen when
needed; it can then be converted into electricity or heat easily enough.
There are also several other advantages of using this method:
- The iron ore
used in the reactors is cheap, plentiful, and doesn't require processing.
- The reactors
themselves are simply made of stainless steel.
- The charging
process occurs at ambient pressure – negating the need for high pressure
tanks (350-700 bar) typically necessary to store hydrogen gas.
The research team piloted its tech on ETH's Hönggerberg campus,
using three stainless steel reactors. Each of them have a capacity of 1.4 cubic
meters, and are filled with 2-3 tons of iron ore. The test plant can store
about 10 megawatt hours of hydrogen for extended periods, and that'll yield
between 4-6 megawatt hours of electrical energy. That's enough to run three to
five Swiss homes in the winter. The pilot project is set to grow by 2026, with
the team looking to meet one-fifth of the winter electricity needs of the
campus using solar power from summer months.
According to the
team's research paper published last November, utilizing this system
for a single home is currently more expensive than powering it with electricity
from the grid. Scaling it up to 100 homes brings the energy cost nearly in line
with that of the grid, and it's estimated that it'll only get cheaper as the
system expands.
More
Hydrogen stored in
iron: A cheap, scalable grid battery for the winter (newatlas.com)
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Vivaldi again and no it’s not a Christmas concerto. It’s
to honour Saint Natale martyred with her husband by the moslems in Cordoba, in
852. Approx. 8 minutes.
A.
Vivaldi: Il Riposo per il S. Natale - Concerto for muted violin, strings &
b.c. (RV 270)
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 12 minutes.
Slay
The Dragon for Immortality || Caruana vs Carlsen || Sinquefield Cup (2014)
Slay The Dragon
for Immortality || Caruana vs Carlsen || Sinquefield Cup (2014) (youtube.com)
This
weekend’s final diversion. The Inside
Buckingham Palace. Approx. 4 minutes.
What's
inside of Buckingham Palace?
What's inside of
Buckingham Palace? - YouTube
Experience, however, shows that neither a state nor a bank ever
have [sic] had the unrestricted power of issuing paper money without abusing
that power; in all states, therefore, the issue of paper money ought to be
under some check and control; and none seems so proper for that purpose as that
of subjecting the issuers of paper money to the obligation of paying their
notes either in gold coin or bullion.
David Ricardo.
