Baltic Dry Index. 1502 -61 Brent Crude 87.97
Spot
Gold 1993 US
2 Year Yield 5.03 +0.04
Somebody has to be
on the other side.
George Goodman, aka Adam Smith. The Money Game. Why
Are The Little People Always Wrong?
It is the last day of the month and time once again to try to dress up month-end stock closing prices. This scary Halloween, that’s easier said than done.
With two wars running, China’s economy slowing, the crude oil price stubbornly high despite China’s economy slowing, global inflation, though slowing, remains way too high in food and energy prices.
The Fed’s sharply higher interest rates are now attracting money away from risky stocks and into much safer bonds.
All in all, a rocky road ahead for most stocks, even assuming the global, US and European economies aren’t heading into a new recession.
If recession hits, look for a stampede out of stocks and into bonds.
European markets
head for mixed open ahead of major euro zone data releases
UPDATED TUE, OCT 31 2023 1:20 AM
EDT
European
markets are heading for a mixed open as investors look ahead to key data
releases in the region, particularly preliminary euro zone inflation data for
October and gross domestic product for the third quarter.
Yesterday, German gross domestic product recorded a 0.1%
quarterly fall, slightly better than the 0.3% decline forecast in a Reuters
poll of economists.
Overnight in Asia-Pacific
markets, Japan stocks trimmed losses after the Bank of Japan’s
monetary policy decision, while other regional markets fell as manufacturing
activity unexpectedly contracted in China. Meanwhile, U.S.
stock futures edged lower early on Tuesday after the major
averages climbed in a relief rally.
European
markets live updates: Stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Stock futures
fall after major averages rebound to start the week: Live updates
UPDATED TUE, OCT 31 2023 1:05 AM
EDT
U.S. stock futures edged lower on Tuesday after
the major averages climbed in a relief rally.
S&P
500 futures
ticked down by 0.38%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell
by 0.58%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average dipped
60 points, or 0.18%.
During Monday’s trading session,
the S&P 500 managed
to climb out of correction territory and close 1.2% higher for its best day
since late August. The Nasdaq Composite added
about 1.2%, while the Dow jumped
roughly 1.6% in its best day since early June.
“I don’t quite trust [Monday’s
rally] because I do think some of the fundamentals are starting to change,”
Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital’s chief investment strategist, said on CNBC’s “Closing
Bell: Overtime” on Monday. However, “coming into this week, we
did hit some oversold levels,” she added. Corporate buybacks are likely to
return as earnings season rolls on, Amoroso added, which could further justify
a case for a bounce back.
The major averages remain on pace
to end the month in the red. The Dow and the S&P 500 are down 1.7% and 2.8%
in October, respectively, in their third consecutive negative month. This marks
the first three-month losing streak for both indexes since March 2020. The
tech-heavy Nasdaq has declined more than 3% month to date, also on pace for its
third negative month in a row.
Wall Street is also keeping a
close eye on the Fed’s next decision on interest rates this Wednesday. Fed
funds futures pricing suggests a roughly 98% probability that the central bank
will keep rates at current levels, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
More
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In
other news, worrying news from China.
China factory
activity unexpectedly shrinks in Oct, dents recovery momentum
By Joe Cash October 31, 2023 5:06 AM GMT
BEIJING, Oct 31
(Reuters) - China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in October,
underlining the daunting task facing policymakers as they try to revitalise
economic growth heading into the end of the year and 2024 amid multiple
challenges at home and abroad.
Recent
indicators pointed to encouraging signs of stabilising in the world's
second-largest economy, supported by a flurry of policy support measures,
although a protracted property crisis and soft global demand remain major
headwinds.
The official
purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in October from 50.2, dipping
back below the 50-point level demarcating contraction from expansion, data from
the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Tuesday. It missed a forecast of
50.2 and was worse than the most pessimistic prediction of 49.9 by Standard
Chartered in a Reuters poll.
The
non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 50.6 last from 51.7 in September, indicating
a slowdown in activity in the vast service sector and construction.
"The weak
PMI data may reflect some of the weakness in demand related to the housing
slump and a slowdown in infrastructure spending," said Xu Tianchen, senior
economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
"Although
there are signs of exports bottoming out, a strong recovery in external demand
is probably elusive," he added.
Both new export
and imports orders shrank for an eight consecutive month, suggesting that
manufacturers were struggling for buyers overseas and ordering fewer components
used in finished goods for re-export.
Foreign buyers returned in force for the autumn round of the Canton Fair in
Guangzhou, the world's largest trade show, but Chinese sellers said orders
remain low as Christmas nears, with few expecting global demand to recover soon.
More
China factory activity unexpectedly shrinks in Oct, dents recovery momentum | Reuters
In
EV news, more bad news. Is there any other kind of EV news these days?
Panasonic cuts
battery unit's profit outlook, warns on high-end EV sales
October
30, 2023 11:32 AM GMT
TOKYO,
Oct 30 (Reuters) - Panasonic Holdings (6752.T), which supplies Tesla (TSLA.O), said on Monday it had cut automotive battery production
in Japan in the September quarter and shrank the division's annual profit
forecast by 15%, underscoring a global slowdown in EV sales.
The company's
less positive outlook for its battery segment follows similar warnings by
several automakers and suppliers, as major economies, including China and
Europe, see weaker growth.
The energy unit
made battery cells for Tesla's premium Model S and Model X that during the
quarter came with a higher price tag than what would make them eligible for
U.S. tax credits, said Panasonic's Group CFO Hirokazu Umeda.
"Since these
are luxury cars that exceed this price, demand has fallen," Umeda told
analysts and reporters during a briefing on the company's second-quarter
financial results.
The battery
unit's production in Japan suffered from slowing uptake for high-end EVs in
North America, Panasonic said in presentation materials posted on its website,
as the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act spurred demand changes among consumers.
Panasonic said
production at its North American operations remained steady, and it saw firm
sales of vehicles eligible for tax credits.
South
Korean battery firm LG Energy Solution (373220.KS) last week warned of slowing revenue growth in 2024
due to global economic uncertainties affecting the outlook for EV sales.
Also
this month, Tesla took a cautious
stance on expanding EV production
capacity, with CEO Elon Musk saying he was worried higher borrowing costs would make its vehicles less
affordable for potential customers despite price cuts.
More
Panasonic cuts battery unit's profit outlook, warns on
high-end EV sales | Reuters
Tesla shares drop
5% on Panasonic battery warning, down 18% since Q3 earnings report
Shares in electric vehicle maker Tesla declined
nearly 5% on Monday following news that Panasonic, a longtime partner
and supplier to the EV maker, had reduced battery cell production in Japan
during the period ending September 2023.
The updates stoked investor
concerns about softening demand for EVs, especially for higher-priced EVs that
may not qualify for tax breaks or other incentives from government programs in
and beyond the U.S. Panasonic cells have been used in Tesla’s older, and
higher-priced, Model X SUVs and Model S sedans.
During Tesla’s
third-quarter earnings call Oct. 18, CEO Elon Musk had
cautioned shareholders that interest rates were putting pressure on the company
to keep the price of its EVs lower and could hamper consumers’ ability to buy
or lease EVs moving forward.
Musk also repeatedly said that Tesla was facing serious challenges
with the start of production of its long-awaited Cybertruck.
The Tesla CEO
lamented, “We dug our own grave with the Cybertruck.” He also said, on the Q3
call, “I just want to temper expectations for Cybertruck. It’s a great product,
but financially, it will take a year to 18 months before it is a significant
positive cash flow contributor.”
Shares have dropped
more than 18% since that earnings call.
More
Tesla
shares drop 5% on Panasonic battery warning (cnbc.com)
Finally,
despite Brexit, Germany booms shrinks, while Italy, well is Italy
after all. Still, shame about those heartless billionaire American owners at
KKR. Don’t they know that’s not how things are done in Italy?
German economy
shrinks slightly in Q3
By Maria Martinez October 30, 2023 10:06 AM GMT
BERLIN, Oct 30
(Reuters) - Germany's economy shrank slightly in the third quarter, data showed
on Monday, as Europe's largest economy continues to be weighed down by weak
purchasing power and higher interest rates.
Gross domestic
product fell by 0.1% quarter on quarter in adjusted terms, the federal
statistics office said.
A Reuters poll
had forecast the economy to shrink by 0.3%.
"These data
alone underline that the German economy has at least become one of the growth
laggards of the euro zone," said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at
ING.
Looking ahead,
the ongoing pass-through of the European Central Bank's monetary policy
tightening, still no reversal of the inventory cycle and new geopolitical
uncertainties will continue weighing on the German economy, Brzeski said.
"The German
economy looks set to remain in the twilight zone between minor contraction and
stagnation not only this year but also next year," Brzeski said.
The contraction
in the third quarter is not seen as an outlier as Commerzbank expects the
German economy to contract again in the winter half-year.
"Consumption
is unlikely to recover as optimists had hoped," Commerzbank's chief
economist Joerg Kraemer said.
Household
consumption fell in the third quarter, as high inflation continued to erode
consumers' purchasing power.
More
German economy shrinks slightly in Q3 | Reuters
Marelli plant closure forewarns painful electric vehicle
transition
By Giulio
Piovaccari and Giselda Vagnoni October 30, 20238:21 AM
GMT
CREVALCORE,
Italy, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Around 230 workers in Italy's "Motor
Valley" have begun striking over the planned closure of their auto parts
factory, an early casualty of the European Union's transition towards electric
vehicles.
Marelli,
owned by U.S. fund KKR (KKR.N), wants
to shut the plant in the Emilia Romagna
region, which makes internal combustion engine parts for car groups including
Stellantis (STLAM.MI), Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) and BMW (BMWG.DE). It said the business has become
"unsustainable", amid the EU's ban on the sale of new petrol cars
from 2035.
Politicians from
across the spectrum have visited the garrison of workers permanently stationed
outside the Crevalcore plant, less than 40 kilometres from Ferrari's
headquarters.
Until last week
the strikers had stopped any finished products from leaving the factory, before
a limited outflow of parts restarted in recent days.
The dispute is an
example of the conflicting challenges governments will face as industries and
economies shift towards greener energy to meet tough climate goals and bolster
energy security.
Up to 70,000 jobs
could be lost in Italy alone due to the push towards green transport, auto
lobby ANFIA said.
Marelli
has put
the plan on hold but confirmed it wants to
abandon the plant, leaving workers in a limbo. Around 20 couples risk losing
their entire family income.
---- Marelli was
created in 2019 after Fiat Chrysler (FCA), now part of Stellantis, sold its
component unit Magneti Marelli to Japan's Calsonic Kansei, owned by KKR, for
5.8 billion euros ($6.1 billion).
When formed,
Marelli had 43,000 employees with 10,000 in Italy. The Italian workforce has
now fallen to 7,300, versus an increase to 50,000 worldwide.
Marelli has
announced 167 workers at its Argentan facility in France, which makes parts for
combustion engines, will also be affected.
"I'm not
upset with EV transition," said Sergio Manni, a maintenance worker at
Crevalcore. "It's the way Marelli is dealing with it: firing and closing,
zero ideas".
Many workers at
Crevalcore are in their 50s: too young for retirement, too old to easily find a
new job, like Francesco Simeri, who is facing his second company crisis in a
decade.
More
Marelli plant closure forewarns painful electric
vehicle transition | Reuters
Most accountants are honorable men, trying to do a job. But they are hired by corporations, not by investors.
George Goodman, aka Adam Smith, The Money Game. But What Do The Numbers Mean?
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Bank
of England set to leave rates on hold as economy teeters on edge of recession
MONDAY 30 OCTOBER 2023 6:00 AM
The Bank of England looks set to leave interest
rates on hold for a second time in a row when it meets on Thursday as the
central bank attempts to bring inflation down to target without tipping the
economy into a recession.
Economists think a majority of the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will back leaving the Bank Rate at 5.25 per cent despite inflation remaining well above the Bank’s two per cent target, at 6.7 per cent.
Recent comments from MPC members suggest that the Bank has
grown increasingly confident that the rate hikes already undertaken have helped
temper price rises.
Earlier this month
Andrew Bailey, the Bank’s Governor, predicted a “noticeable
drop” in the headline rate of inflation next
month and suggested there will be “more evidence” of easing inflation by the
end of the year.
While Huw Pill, the
Bank’s chief economist, recently said he was “reasonably confident” that higher
interest rates were “bearing
down on inflation”.
Many of the indicators
of inflationary persistence are moving in the right direction too, albeit
slowly. Unemployment has increased faster than the Bank
forecast back in August, while wage growth has
eased from its peaks, although it remains at elevated
levels.
Concerns over
the accuracy
of official unemployment data is likely to
bolster arguments for caution too.
However, economists
expect that at least three members of the MPC will back a 25 basis point hike.
Sanjay Raja, senior
economist at Deutsche Bank, said the more hawkish members on the committee
would have concerns around “strong wage growth, and still elevated near-term
inflation expectations as a result of sticky CPI and the
emergence of geopolitical risks.”
This week’s meeting
follows a knife-edge decision in September, when the MPC backed a pause by the
thinnest of margins.
Looking forward,
Sandra Horsfield, an economist at Investec, predicted the Bank would “reiterate
its plan to keep it at this elevated level for a prolonged period” in order to
stamp out inflation. The Bank is also likely to stress that it would be willing
to hike interest rates again if further evidence of inflationary persistence
emerges.
The Bank’s decision
will come the day after the US Federal Reserve makes its latest rate decision.
Markets expect the federal funds rate to also be left on hold at
between 5.25 per cent and 5.5 per cent.
Last week the European
Central Bank brought its own run of 10
consecutive rate hikes to an end as central banks move to the next stage in
their battle against inflation.
BoE set to leave rates on hold as economy teeters on
edge of recession (cityam.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
More
contempt for the public, by all parties in the Commons, on display yet again,
on the issue of Covid-19 vaccine safety.
I will leave this callous display of contempt for the UK public up for
the rest of the week. Approx. 14
minutes.
Safe
and effective
The Veil Of Silence Over
Excess Deaths
MONDAY,
OCT 30, 2023 - 06:00 AM
Around the world, there has been a deafening
silence over excess deaths from governments and the mainstream media, who
not so long ago were quite fixated on the daily death toll for Covid.
On October 20th, a 30-minute adjourned debate
(20 rejections later) on excess deaths in the UK House of Commons was finally
secured by Andrew Bridgen, MP for
North West Leicestershire and member of the Reclaim Party.
Bridgen began his speech to the sound of
erupting cheers from the full, upper public gallery, in stark contrast to the
almost empty chamber below.
Where were the hundreds of MPs who would
normally sit shoulder to shoulder in the chamber? It appears, an increase in
deaths of their constituents was not a pressing issue for them on that Friday
afternoon.
We’ve experienced more excess deaths
since July 2021 than in the whole of 2020, unlike the pandemic, however, these deaths are not
disproportionately of the old, in other words, the excess deaths
are striking down people in the prime of life but no-one seems to care.
I fear history will not judge this house kindly.
Strikingly, excess deaths have been seen
across all age groups, which Bridgen pointed out during
his speech.
More
The Veil Of Silence Over Excess Deaths | ZeroHedge
Recent Study:
Black and Green Tea Can Inactivate the COVID-19 Omicron Subvariants
Japanese
researchers set out to explore various foods and ingredients that may
inactivate the strain of SARS-CoV-2 responsible for COVID-19.
10/22/2023 Updated: 10/28/2023
As COVID-19 mutates
over time, variants and sub-variants different from the original SARS-CoV-2
virus emerge. A recent study, conducted in Japan, found that green tea (Japanese
sencha), matcha, and black tea can effectively inactivate certain Omicron
subvariants. In addition, saliva produced after consuming candy containing
green tea or black tea exhibited virus-inactivating properties in vitro,
rendering the virus less contagious.
The COVID-19 virus primarily
spreads through the saliva of infected individuals, including asymptomatic
carriers. Saliva containing the virus is released when talking, sneezing, or
coughing, forming droplets and aerosols that disperse into the air.
Professor Osam Mazda and his research team at Kyoto
Prefectural University of Medicine in Japan believe that inactivating the virus
in saliva is crucial for preventing COVID-19. Therefore, they explored various
foods and ingredients that may inactivate the strain of SARS-CoV-2 responsible
for COVID-19. A previous study they conducted found that polyphenols found in green
tea or black tea reduced the infectivity of the virus in human saliva in vitro,
demonstrating virus-inactivating properties. The polyphenols in tea can bind to
the spike protein of the virus, preventing it from infecting cells.
The research team published
their new study on Oct. 3 in Scientific Reports, indicating that green tea,
matcha, and black tea rapidly and effectively inactivated some Omicron
subvariants.
One of the experiments in the
study involved seven healthy volunteers who consumed candies containing green
tea, black tea, or no tea components, and their saliva subsequently collected.
Researchers found that saliva collected immediately after consuming candies
containing green or black tea had high concentrations of tea polyphenols,
including epigallocatechin gallate (EGCG) and theaflavin digallate. When researchers
mixed saliva samples with the early Omicron virus strain BA.1 for 10 seconds,
they observed rapid inactivation of the virus by saliva containing tea
polyphenols. However, the virus-inactivating effect gradually diminished
between 5 and 15 minutes after the cessation of the candy.
The research team believes that
if infected individuals consume candies containing green tea or black tea, it
may be useful in inactivating the virus, decreasing the virus load in the oral
and gastrointestinal tracts, and preventing the virus from spreading to nearby
non-infected individuals.
Another experiment involved
steeping black tea, green tea, or matcha in hot water and subsequently mixing
the virus suspension with the tea beverages for 10 seconds, followed by assessing
the virus's virulence. The results revealed that the infectivity of the BA.1
and other Omicron subvariants decreased to less than one percent.
Not only does freshly brewed
tea have virus-inactivating effects, but bottled green tea beverages purchased
from grocery stores also significantly reduced the infectivity of Omicron
subvariants BA.1, BA.5, and BQ.1.1, although they were not effective against
BA.2.75.
More
Recent Study: Black and Green Tea Can Inactivate the
COVID-19 Omicron Subvariants | The Epoch Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Class 08 diesel shunter
converted to battery power
Rail
Business UK27 October 2023
UK: A Class 08 diesel
shunting locomotive originally built in the 1950s has been rebuilt to use battery power.
Branded 08e, the prototype
has been developed by Positive Traction to offer a cost-effective and emission
free alternative to diesel power for shunting and industrial applications.
‘Class 08 shunting
locomotives have been the workhorses of ports, distribution centres and depots
across Britain’s railway for over 60 years’, said director Alistair Gregory.
‘As the UK moves towards net zero, diesel engines are increasingly unacceptable.’
The loco has been fitted with plug-in lithium-ferro-phosphate
traction batteries supplied by Lithion Battery Inc. These are housed in a ‘PT
Powerpod’, which contains the batteries, battery management system, charger and
ancillaries. The prototype is rated at 450 hp, but it is designed to be
scalable with two to six of the 88 kWh battery pods which can be exchanged
using a forklift truck.
Other features include head and tail
light clusters from BMAC Ltd, regenerative braking, internal and external CCTV,
and oil-free connecting rod bearings to reduce maintenance and prevent oil loss
onto interior floors. Ethernet connections support remote diagnostics, multiple
working and remote control.
The existing control desk has been
retained to reduce driver and depot staff training time, along with the frames,
traction motors and buffer beams.
This is the way
things are, and the Game has been so successful that, like everything, it will
get more and more successful until it stops being successful.
George Goodman, aka Adam Smith, The Money
Game. 1968.
