Baltic Dry Index. 1127 +17 Brent Crude 85.56
Spot Gold 1960 US 2 Year Yield 4.88 +0.01
It was the best of times, it was the worst of
times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the
epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light,
it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of
despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all
going direct to heaven, we were all going direct the other way.
Charles Dickens. A Tale of Two Cities.
In the stock casinos, bubble on. What could
possibly go wrong. After all, the central banks will bail out any stock market
trauma, right.
Besides, America’s booming under “Bidenomics,” as President Biden never stops telling us. What’s not to like, keep buying more
right?
Asia markets
mixed as private survey showed China’s factory activity fell in July
UPDATED MON, JUL 31 2023 10:33 PM
EDT
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Tuesday as
China’s factory activity fell into contraction territory for the first time
since April, according to the Caixin survey compiled by S&P Global.
The purchasing managers index
came in at 49.2 in July, compared with 50.3 expected by economists in a Reuters
poll.
This comes a day after official
data showed that the country’s factory activity remained in contraction
territory for a fourth straight month.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was
0.63% higher, but mainland Chinese markets bucked the trend and were all in
negative territory. The Shanghai
Composite was down marginally and the Shenzhen Component was
down 0.1%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 climbed
0.25%, ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision. Economists
polled by Reuters are expecting a 25 basis points hike in its benchmark policy
rate to 4.35%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose
0.45%, while the Topix gained 0.39% as the country saw its unemployment rate
fall slightly to 2.5% in June.
Elsewhere, South Korea’s Kospi advanced
1.13% and the Kosdaq gained 1.19%.
Overnight in the U.S., all three
major indexes gained as Wall Street kicked off a busy earnings
week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added
0.28%, while the S&P
500 edged up 0.15% and the Nasdaq Composite rose
0.21% to end at 14,346.02.
Asia markets mixed as
private survey showed China's factory activity fell in July (cnbc.com)
Stock futures are little changed as Wall
Street’s busiest earnings week continues: Live updates
UPDATED MON, JUL 31 2023 8:04 PM
EDT
U.S. stock futures traded near the flat line
Monday night as investors await a flood of corporate earnings reports.
Dow
Jones Industrial Average futures fell
by 7 points, or 0.02%. Futures linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each
inched higher by 0.04%.
The major indexes all ended
Monday’s main trading session modestly higher. The Dow rose
0.28%, while the S&P 500 and
the Nasdaq Composite edged
up 0.15% and 0.21%, respectively. In July, the S&P 500 and the Dow each
gained more than 3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced about 4.1%.
More than 160 S&P 500
constituents are slated to report their latest quarterly results this week.
More than half of the companies in the broad market index have already
reported, with 80% posting earnings beats, according to FactSet. This further
raises hopes that the economy will be able to avoid a recession as inflation
begins to show signs of slowing.
To be sure, Globalt Investments
senior portfolio manager Keith Buchanan noted that expectations coming into this
season were negative.
“We beat that bar, but still,
thus far [there have] been indications that we’re going to end up in a negative
year-over-year growth from an earnings standpoint,” said Buchanan. “But we’re
more concerned and frankly, somewhat optimistic about the earnings picture for
the second half of this year, in particular 2024.”
He added that signs of a widening
market rally have emerged in the past month.
“As this market continues to kind
of turn higher, we’re expecting a broader participation with small cap
participating, [with] some spaces of the value cohort participating as well,”
Buchanan added.
Pharmaceutical giants Merck and Pfizer will
be posting their results Tuesday morning. Investors will also be keeping an eye
on Caterpillar and
Uber’s quarterly earnings reports. Economic indicators, including job openings
and labor turnover numbers from June and the July manufacturing purchasing
managers’ index will also be released Tuesday.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In the real
world, where people must actually work for a living, more signs of a slowing
global economy and a growing manufacturing recession
Australia’s
central bank leaves rates unchanged at 4.1%
The Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates
at 4.1% for a second month on Tuesday, in another reprieve for mortgage holders
after inflation recently slowed more than expected.
Even though Australian inflation
slowed more than expected in the second quarter, its consumer price index still
rose 6% in the second quarter from a year ago. That’s still well above the
RBA’s 2% target, but slower than the 7% increase recorded in the first quarter.
The Australian central bank has hiked interest rates by a cumulative
400 basis points since May last year to its highest in 11 years. The country
has been grappling with surging inflation as economic activity picked up after
the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Tuesday’s RBA policy meeting is
Philip Lowe’s penultimate meeting as governor.
Michele
Bullock will succeed Lowe as RBA governor when he finishes a
seven-year term in office on Sept. 17.
Australia's
central bank RBA leaves rates unchanged at 4.1% (cnbc.com)
Japan's factory
activity falls on soft orders - PMI
August
1, 20231:54 AM GMT+1
TOKYO, Aug 1 - Japan's factory activity
contracted at a faster pace in July, a business survey showed on Tuesday,
taking a hit from soft orders amid weakening global economic conditions.
The final au Jibun
Bank Japan manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.6 in July,
slightly higher than flash 49.4 but down from 49.8 in June.
The decline was largely due to a
deterioration in new orders, given weak customer demand from domestic and
overseas markets, said Usamah Bhatti at S&P Global Market Intelligence,
which compiled the survey.
Output, another
major component of the headline index, kept shrinking albeit at a slower rate
than in June. Data on Monday showed Japan's factory output grew in
June for the first time in two months thanks to solid auto production.
Subindexes gauging new orders and
output both stayed in the sub-50 territory in June for a second month. A
reading below the 50 line indicates a contraction.
Japan has to date
weathered worsening global economic conditions relatively well thanks to robust
domestic service activity and ultra-loose monetary policy. Export-reliant
manufacturers, however, have suffered from slowing demand overseas.
More
Japan's
factory activity falls on soft orders - PMI | Reuters
China's July factory
activity swings back to contraction - Caixin PMI
August
1, 20232:55 AM GMT+1
BEIJING, Aug 1 (Reuters) - China's
factory activity swung to contraction in July, a private sector survey showed
on Tuesday, with supply, demand and export orders all deteriorating as firms
blamed sluggish market conditions at home and abroad.
The Caixin/S&P Global
manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.2 in July from 50.5
in June, missing analysts' forecasts of 50.3 and marking the first decline in
activity since April. The 50-point index mark separates growth from
contraction.
The data was in line
with the government's official PMI on Monday, raising
challenges for policymakers seeking to revive momentum in China's post-COVID
recovery amid high youth unemployment, mounting local debt pressure and weak
demand.
The Caixin survey showed manufacturing
output shrank for the first time in six months while new orders saw the quickest
reduction since December. New orders remained unchanged at makers of investment
goods, but fell at producers of consumer and intermediate goods.
New export orders contracted at the
steepest pace since September 2022 amid weakening global demand.
Employment across the manufacturing
sector fell for the fifth straight month in July, although the pace of job
shedding eased from June. Lower payroll numbers were attributed to reduced
sales and cost-cutting by factory owners.
After five months of improvement,
supplier performance worsened slightly. Firms said a lack of stock at some
vendors had impacted lead times as they adopted leaner inventory policies in
response to softer demand.
Competitive market conditions and price
negotiations with clients led to a further reduction in Chinese factory gate
prices at the start of the third quarter.
Manufacturers overall remained
optimistic regarding the 12-month outlook for output, but the degree of
positive sentiment was below the long-run series average.
More
China's
July factory activity swings back to contraction - Caixin PMI | Reuters
Finally,
in food price inflation news, it’s a critical few weeks for US grains. Rains
needed and how.
Column: Crop Watch:
Widespread cuts in crop conditions after hot, dry week
By Karen Braun July 31, 20235:29 PM GMT+1
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, July 31 (Reuters)
- Conditions in the U.S. Crop Watch corn and soybean fields took a relatively
large hit over the last week amid hot, humid weather accompanied by scarce
rainfall.
That dropped corn yield expectations
as well, though the Crop Watch producers felt soybean yield potential was hurt
less by the recent stretch of unfavorable weather.
Almost every Crop Watch producer
reported rain needs are becoming urgent, though this week holds mixed chances
for the core Corn Belt states. U.S. forecasters as of Sunday afternoon
predicted the area would be predominantly cool and possibly wetter than normal
starting next week.
Temperatures will not be as warm as
last week, though they may remain a little warmer than normal in the western
belt.
Over the last week, the Indiana
location received 1.5 inches of rain and Ohio got between 1 and 2 inches.
Western Illinois tallied 0.8 inch and 0.35 inch fell in both Minnesota and
eastern Iowa.
North and South Dakota had a tenth or
two of rain over the last week, but nothing was observed in Nebraska, Kansas,
western Iowa and southeastern Illinois. Southeastern Illinois has accumulated
just 0.4 inch in the last three weeks, and North Dakota has been similarly dry.
The 11-field, average Crop Watch corn
condition fell to 3.95 from 4.16 last week, the largest weekly cut in eight
weeks. That included quarter-point improvements in North Dakota and Indiana,
but corn condition fell a full point in Kansas after a week of extreme
temperatures over 100 degrees Fahrenheit.
Corn condition shed a half-point in
southeastern Illinois and Minnesota, and quarter-point losses were observed in
South Dakota, Nebraska and western Iowa.
More
Column: Crop Watch: Widespread cuts in crop conditions after hot, dry week | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Italy’s Economy
Unexpectedly Shrinks in Setback for Meloni
Mon, 31 July 2023 at
10:04 am BST
(Bloomberg) --
Italy’s economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, a setback for
premier Giorgia Meloni’s government as it tries to sustain prosperity and cut
debt.
Gross domestic
product shrank by 0.3% from the previous three months — much worse than the
zero growth that analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had estimated, and in contrast
to overall expansion in the euro region.
Statistics
officials attributed the slump to a drop in domestic demand, while net exports
failed to contribute to growth. Industry and agriculture were particularly hit.
The data
illustrate how activity in the euro zone’s third-biggest economy is starting to
suffer from rising interest rates, weakening global export demand and the
rollback of fiscal support: GDP had risen by 0.6% in the first quarter.
Italy’s
contraction casts a shadow over its stewardship under Meloni’s coalition. Just
last week, she touted the economic policies of her government as driving faster
expansion than France and Germany. The International Monetary Fund now predicts
Italian GDP will rise 1.1% this year.
As recently as
last month, Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti was claiming that the economy
could even achieve growth of as much 1.4% in 2023, buoyed by a tourist boom in
the first full summer season since the pandemic struck.
That effect
might yet aid Italy in the second half of the year, but the China-led global
slowdown for manufacturing is taking its toll, just as it is hitting Germany’s
economy too.
In June,
Italy’s factories had their worst month since the height of the pandemic
lockdowns in early 2020, a survey of purchasing managers showed earlier this
month. Figures for July due on Tuesday may show that persisting.
More
Italy’s Economy Unexpectedly Shrinks in Setback for
Meloni (yahoo.com)
Germany expected to be only major economy not to grow
this year
Sun, 30 July 2023 at 12:18 pm BST
The German economy is still failing
to grow, figures showed on Friday, as the country that should be the industrial
powerhouse for all of Europe struggles with high energy prices, rising
borrowing costs and a lagging rebound from key trading partner China.
Economic output in Germany stagnated
in the April-to-June quarter, the Federal Statistics Office said. That follows
a decline of 0.1% in the first three months of the year and a drop of 0.4% in
the last three months of 2022 as the energy shock from Russia's war in Ukraine
echoed through Europe's largest economy.
It comes after the International
Monetary Fund forecast this week that Germany would be the globe's only major
economy to shrink this year, even with weak economic growth around the world
amid rising interest rates and the threat of growing inflation.
In Germany, the economy has been
buffeted by several challenges. Above all, its long-term dependence on Russian
natural gas to fuel industry backfired when the invasion of Ukraine led to the
loss of most of Moscow's supply and to higher costs for energy-intensive
industries such as metals, glass, cars and fertilizer.
More
Germany expected to be only major economy not to grow
this year (yahoo.com)
Sinking Profits
Means Layoffs
Earnings
declines will mean layoffs and end the upbeat jobs market
7/28/2023 Updated: 7/30/2023
Even as the gross domestic
product has surprised on the upside, the emerging profits picture points to
coming layoffs.
Although earnings levels and
margins have deteriorated over the past year or so, business has largely
avoided staffing cuts. Indeed, companies have continued hiring. It seems that
despite slowing sales and output levels, managements are hoarding labor, haunted
perhaps by the staffing shortages that plagued their ability to recover quickly
after the COVID-19 lockdowns and quarantines lifted in 2021. Profits have
suffered under the weight of these additional wage and salary costs. Such
patterns cannot go on indefinitely. With profits falling again in the spring
quarter, such hoarding should end soon. Then, layoffs will begin.
As yet, only a little hard
information on April–June earnings was available. Company managements have
offered guidance, however, and all points to shrinking profits. Estimates on
the companies in the S&P 500 Index suggest an 8.1 percent drop in earnings
per share from the spring quarter of last year, a striking figure since last
year’s second quarter was weak enough to make even mediocre returns look good
by comparison. Taking account of the decline in shares outstanding from
buybacks and the like, this per share expectation suggests an 11.4 percent drop
in net earnings.
Estimates, of course, are often
too pessimistic. Managements tend to lowball their public guidance so that they
can ultimately deliver a pleasant surprise to analysts and investors. But their
guidance is never so skewed from reality that an expectation of this kind of a
decline could, in the end, show growth or even a flat performance compared with
a year ago.
What is most telling as far as
employment is concerned is the expectation that second-quarter S&P 500 per
share revenues are also expected to fall by just under 1 percent. Given the
difference between this figure and the expected earnings decline, it looks as
though profit margins suffered markedly. This result stands to reason.
Especially when business is hoarding labor, as seems to be the case, it carries
a considerable cost overhang that gives any revenue decline considerable
leverage on the bottom line.
The clarity in this matter
emerges from the Labor Department’s staffing and productivity accounting. Here,
the effect of labor hoarding becomes obvious. Output growth clearly has slowed.
Production rose by only 2.2 percent last year and at a 0.9 percent annual rate
during this year’s first quarter, the most recent period for which data are
available. Yet staffing, as measured by hours employed, rose by 3.9 percent
last year and at a 2.7 percent annual rate in the opening quarter.
Productivity—output per hour worked—has accordingly plummeted, falling by 1.6
percent last year and at a 1.7 percent annual rate during the first quarter.
More
Sinking Profits Means Layoffs | The Epoch Times
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
COVID-19 Vaccines and Boosters
Were Never Made With mRNA
The
truth behind RNA-based vaccine technology (Part 1)
Jul 27
2023
For the first time in human
history, the gene regulatory program of healthy people has been manipulated on
a massive scale.
Despite everything we’ve been
told, RNA-based COVID-19 injections were manufactured with modified RNA—not
messenger RNA (mRNA).
Modified RNA (modRNA) poses substantial risks to our health.
These risks come not only from
COVID-19 injections and boosters but—unless we speak up now—also from all
future RNA-based vaccines.
mRNA and
modRNA Are Not the Same
The two—mRNA and modRNA—are
completely different.
mRNA occurs naturally, lives in
our cells for only a short time, and is relatively fragile. It is a specific
type of RNA that carries instructions or “messages” from our genes to help make
proteins, the building blocks of our cells. It is constantly produced as part
of normal cellular processes. Once mRNA delivers the messages, its work is
done, and it is broken down in the body.
When RNA from another source
enters our cells—virus RNA, for example—these cells can generate virus
proteins.
We have been told that COVID-19
injections are made with mRNA. However, a vaccine using “natural” mRNA would
not last long enough to initiate an immune response before being destroyed by
our immune system.
To make mRNA useful for routine
medicine, scientists had to artificially modify mRNA to increase both its
efficiency and lifetime. The result: modRNA.
modRNA has been optimized for long
life and maximal translation. While mRNA exhibits a cell-specific expression
pattern, modRNA can invade nearly every cell type.
How Did We
Get Here?
In 1961, the announcement of the
discovery of mRNA occurred “in a climax of scientific excitement.” There had been
earlier “sightings” of this short-lived but essential RNA intermediary, all
leading up to an understanding of how genes made mRNA and its role in the
production of proteins.
In a nutshell: mRNA carries
genetic instructions from the cell’s DNA to ribosomes, which use these
instructions to assemble a specific protein.
It wasn’t long before scientists
experimented with how to use mRNA to help the body heal itself. In 1990, researchers
injected natural (unmodified) mRNA into a mouse’s skeletal muscle; the
mouse produced a protein it would never produce naturally.
Subsequently, scientists observed
that transferring natural mRNA was inefficient.
Although it worked in principle,
it broke down quickly and couldn’t be used effectively for treatment purposes.
This observation opened the door
to synthetically or artificially modifying mRNA. The original focus of this
research was to reprogram and destroy cancer cells—the only aim of modRNA
before the COVID-19 pandemic.
---- Alarmingly, modRNA contains a
viral gene sequence. Upon entering a cell, modRNA takes control of the cell
machinery and reprograms it to produce a viral protein—for example, spike
protein.
Perhaps most astonishing is that, when creating the COVID-19 vaccines and boosters, scientists already knew that targeted delivery of modRNA was impossible. modRNA cannot be targeted to specific cells. As such, it attacks perfectly healthy cells—even beyond natural barriers like the blood-brain barrier.
More
COVID-19 Vaccines and Boosters Were Never Made With
mRNA (theepochtimes.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Light-activated
antibacterial foil claimed to outperform HEPA filters
Ben Coxworth July 28, 2023
Although HEPA filters and ultraviolet lighting systems are
effective at neutralizing bacteria in hospitals, homes and other settings, they
do have their drawbacks. A new light-activated material known as LumaFlo,
however, is claimed to have them both beat.
One problem with HEPA filters is the fact that the filtration
media eventually becomes saturated with trapped airborne pathogens, so it needs
to be regularly replaced. Additionally, microbes may remain alive in that media
for quite some time, plus the filters can impede airflow in a building's HVAC
(heating, ventilation and air conditioning) system.
Ultraviolet light doesn't have these drawbacks, but direct exposure to
it is harmful to humans. This means that it can only be
utilized at times (or in places) when no people are present.
That's where LumaFlo is designed to come in.
Created by an Israeli startup of the same name, it takes the form of a
thin black photocatalytic foil made up of "a specially activated
carbon" (currently carbon nanotubes, but that could change) and a metal
oxide. When the material is exposed to any type of artificial or natural light,
it reportedly decomposes any airborne organic molecules and organisms that
touch it while flowing past.
The company suggests that it be applied like a decal to surfaces such as
HVAC vents, fan blades, or even just walls that are in the path of a room's
airflow and which are exposed to light. LumaFlo chairman Harry Yuklea tells us
that based on current simulation models, the material should only need to be
replaced once a year in relatively clean environments – that's about half as
often as filter mats should be changed.
In tests performed at the FDA-approved Aerosol Research and Engineering
Laboratory (ARE) in Kansas, LumaFlo foil is claimed to have eradicated 99.997%
of airborne Staphylococcus bacteria within 90 minutes. The
EPA's minimum requirement for HEPA filters is 99.97%. Additionally, because air
just has to pass over the material instead of through it, LumaFlo is said to
operate up to six times faster than filter-based systems.
"For normal residential environments we estimate that a LumaFlo DYI
kit of 100 square centimeters (five strips of 2 cm x 10 cm) per room will
guarantee the performance level proved by the reported ARE test," said
Yuklea.
The planned price of such a kit, which should be commercially available
by the first quarter of next year, is US$49.
Light-activated antibacterial foil claimed to
outperform HEPA filters (newatlas.com)
"In
economics, hope and faith coexist with great scientific pretension."
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
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