Wednesday, 9 August 2023

Deflation Looms. Casinos Bubble Bursting?

 Baltic Dry Index. 1142 -03           Brent Crude 86.05

Spot Gold 1931                  US 2 Year Yield 4.74 -0.02


A daughter shows her bankster father her work on Bitcoin's lightning network to speed up transactions, in response he ask's her if she would like to hear his opinion on Bitcoin.

She replies yes.  "It's worthless" her father says
"I know" She replies "But let's hear it anyway."

Bad news from China this morning, deflation is stalking the world’s second largest economy.

How long before China is exporting deflation out to the global economy, although that already seems to be happening in industrial commodities.

Bad news for banksters too.  Windfall profits taxes arrive.

Bunker time.


Stocks in China fall as consumer prices drop for the first time in more than 2 years

UPDATED WED, AUG 9 2023 12:00 AM EDT

Stocks in China and Hong Kong fell Wednesday as China’s consumer prices slipped into negative territory in July, for the first time in 28 months.

The CSI300, which tracks stocks of the largest listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen, fell 0.22%. Mainland Chinese markets were lower, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.36% and the Shenzhen Component 0.28% lower. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index shed 0.1%.

China’s July CPI declined by 0.3% year-on-year, smaller than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Reuters — the last time China recorded a fall in its inflation rate was in February 2021.

Producer price index fell 4.4% in July compared to a year ago, more than the 4.1% expected by economists polled by Reuters.

These numbers will deepen worries about both China’s growth prospects and the effectiveness of traditional stimulus measures,” Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor of Allianz, said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Major markets in Asia-Pacific were mixed.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid 0.5%, while the Topix fell 0.3%. In contrast, South Korea’s Kospi climbed 1.09%, while the Kosdaq was up nearly 2%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was also marginally up.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes saw a selloff after Moody’s downgraded the credit rating on several regional banks, citing deposit risk, a potential recession and struggling commercial real estate portfolios.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.45%, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.42% and the Nasdaq Composite pulled back by 0.79%.

Asia stock market today: Live updates China CPI, PPI, Moody's bank downgrade (cnbc.com)

China’s consumer prices fall for the first time in 2 years, as fears of deflation grow

BEIJING — China reported inflation data for July that pointed to a modest improvement from June.

The consumer price index fell by 0.3% in July from a year ago, but was up by 0.2% when compared with June, according to the National Bureau of Statistics Wednesday.

The year-on-year CPI print for July was slightly better than expectations for a 0.4% decline, according to analysts polled by Reuters. It was still the first year-on-year decline since early 2021, according to official data accessed via Wind Information.

The producer price index fell by 4.4% in July from a year ago, better than the 5.4% decline in June, the data showed.

However, the year-on-year PPI read was worse than the 4.1% forecast by a Reuters poll.

“Both CPI and PPI are in deflation territory,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management, in a note following the data release. “The economic momentum continues to weaken due to lacklustre domestic demand.”

“The CPI deflation may put more pressure on the government to consider additional fiscal stimulus to mitigate the challenge,” he added.

A 26% year-on-year drop in pork prices, a staple food in China, contributed to the overall decline in the CPI in July. Tourism prices rose by 13.1% from a year ago.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.8% from a year ago — the highest since January, according to official data accessed via Wind Information.

Producer prices will likely turn higher on a year-on-year basis before the consumer price index does, said Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research for Greater China at JLL.

He expects consumer prices will still be dragged down in the coming months by falling pork prices and a high base effect, while core CPI may gradually rise.

Lackluster domestic demand has persisted since the pandemic. China’s consumer price index was flat in June from a year ago. Second-quarter data prompted several economists to warn of growing risk of deflation — a persistent decrease in prices over time.

More

China's CPI falls first time in 2 years, as fears of deflation grow (cnbc.com)

In the stock casinos, more sign of a harsh reality taking hold.

 

From $40 billion to ‘going concern’ — WeWork warns of possible bankruptcy

Four years ago WeWork was preparing for a blockbuster IPO. Now the company is warning of possible bankruptcy.

“Our losses and negative cash flows from operating activities raise substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern,” WeWork said in a filing with the SEC on Tuesday.

The spectacular collapse of a company once valued by SoftBank at $40 billion has been years in the making, but is still surprising given the number of large commercial buildings around the world that don the company’s name. The combination of the Covid pandemic, which led many businesses to exit their leases in favor of remote work, and the subsequent economic slump, has left WeWork heavy on debt and struggling to generate cash.

“If we are not successful in improving our liquidity position and the profitability of our operations, we may need to consider all strategic alternatives, including restructuring or refinancing our debt, seeking additional debt or equity capital, reducing or delaying our business activities and strategic initiatives, or selling assets, other strategic transactions and/or other measures, including obtaining relief under the U.S. Bankruptcy Code,” the company said.

WeWork’s stock has been trading below $1 since mid-March. It tumbled 26% to 15 cents in extended trading on Tuesday and now has a market cap below $500 million.

The company had a net loss in the first half of the year of $700 million after losing $2.3 billion in 2022. As of June 30, it had $205 million in cash and equivalents and total liquidity of $680 million. It has $2.91 billion in long-term debt.

WeWork first sought to go public in 2019, publishing its initial prospectus in August of that year. With its full financials available for everyone to see, the business was roundly criticized due to excessive spending and risks along with founder Adam Neumann’s complex relationship at the company.

The IPO never made it out the door. SoftBank founder and CEO Masayoshi Son called his investment in WeWork “foolish” and his company took majority control of the business in a $5 billion financing package. Neumann was forced to step down.

In 2021, WeWork finally became public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. But the turbulence continued. WeWork said its revenue grew just 3.6% year over year in the second quarter and declined 4% in the U.S., where it gets 41% of its sales.

Economic conditions led more members to depart, bring down revenue and cash flow, WeWork said. Even SoftBank is spending less on WeWork. 

More

WeWork warns of remaining 'going concern' and says bankruptcy possible (cnbc.com)

Up next, with banksters unwilling to pass on higher interest rates to savers, Italy has declared open season on Italian banksters. How long before everyone else piles in? Not long I suspect.

 

Italy shocks banks with 40% windfall tax for 2023

ROME, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Italy has approved a one-off 40% tax on profits banks reap from higher interest rates after reprimanding lenders for failing to reward deposits, in a surprise move that sent banking shares plunging across Europe.

Sharply higher official interest rates have yielded record profits for banks, as lenders hike the cost of loans while holding off paying more on deposits.

Countries such as Spain and Hungary have already imposed windfall taxes on the sector and others may now follow suit.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government had floated the idea of a windfall tax on banks earlier in the year but appeared to have cooled on the plan.

A senior banking executive told Reuters that lenders had been ready for "the chopping block, but then the axe didn't come down."

Since then, however, bumper first-half results from banks brought the issue starkly into focus once again and prompted the government to act on the eve of the summer political shutdown.

One source said the plan came as a surprise even to some ministers at Monday night's cabinet meeting.

Italy's banking share index plunged 7.4% by 0915 GMT on Tuesday, with top bank Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP.MI) down 8% and rival heavyweight UniCredit (CRDI.MI) down 6.5%. Italian banks dragged the European index (.SX7E) down 2.4%, with a Moody's downgrade of some U.S. banks also weighing on bank shares.

"One has only to look at banks' first-half profits ... to realise that we are not talking about a few millions, but ... of billions," Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini told a news conference in Rome late on Monday.

----Citi analysts calculated the tax could wipe nearly a fifth off Italian banks' 2023 net income. Bank of America estimated proceeds of between 2-3 billion euros for the government.

Sources said the Treasury expected to collect less than 3 billion euros ($3.3 billion) from the measure.

That would be similar to the figure of 2.8 billion euros raised by this year's windfall tax on energy companies.

Italy will apply the tax only in 2023 with banks paying the sums by June 30, 2024. The measure applies to the net interest margin (NIM), a measure of income banks derive from the gap between lending and deposit rates.

More

Italy shocks banks with 40% windfall tax for 2023 | Reuters

Finally, with the Chinese economy clearly slowing China’s demand for commodities is slowing too.

 

Silver: More Red Flags for ‘Solar Metal’ From China Slowdown

August 8, 2023

One of the world’s most valuable industrial metals, silver, could lose more of its luster as the economy it heavily relies on slows by the day.

The white metal, key to renewable energy from its extensive use in solar panels, has lost 8% of its value in four weeks, trading at a crossroads now, with a technical rebound likely after the triggering of key support levels on its way down.

But it could also enter a new period of fundamentally-driven bearishness after trade data on Tuesday showed China’s exports tumbling at its fastest pace in 3-½ years, adding to concerns about the world’s No. 2 economy.

A China slowdown will slow global industrial progress as many of the world’s jobs and production depend on the Chinese economy due to its vast market and factory floors.

In Monday’s session, silver for September delivery on New York’s Comex fell to a one-month low of $23.12 an ounce, extending for a fourth week in a row a decline that began when the metal traded above $25.

The spot price of silver, more closely watched than futures by some traders, settled on Monday at $23.15 per ounce — down 2% on the day and 7% off over the past four weeks.

Those moves in silver came before data on Tuesday that showed China’s exports fell by 14.5% last month from a year earlier to $281.76 billion, compared with a 12.4% slump in June.

The drop in China’s July exports was way beyond the 4.8% fall projected by Wind, a leading provider of financial information services in Beijing.

Aside from exports, imports fell 12.4% in July from a year earlier to $201.16 billion, versus a fall of 6.8% in June and against Wind’s forecast drop of 11.4%.

The International Monetary Fund originally forecasted that China would be the top contributor to global growth over the next five years, with a share expected to represent 22.6% of total world growth — double that of the United States.

Prices of metals from iron ore to copper fell this year as demand in the world’s biggest market didn’t pick up as strongly as traders had expected.

The slump is hitting exporters of high-tech goods especially, with shipments from South Korea and Taiwan dropping by double digits each month in the first half of the year.

After years of COVID restraints, Chinese travelers have yet to resume traveling en masse abroad, as their income and job confidence remain weak, hurting tourism-dependent countries.

With the risk of further interest rate hikes tipping the US into recession, the prospect has grown of the world’s two economic powerhouses slumping simultaneously compounding the pain for everyone.

More

Silver: More Red Flags for ‘Solar Metal’ From China Slowdown (msn.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Fed Gov. Bowman: More rate hikes may be necessary to meet inflationary target rate

AUG. 7, 2023 / 1:07 PM / UPDATED AUG. 7, 2023 AT 1:15 PM

Aug. 7 (UPI) -- Even with some improvement, additional rate hikes may be necessary to bring inflation closer to the 2% target rate, U.S. Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman said Monday.

Bowman was addressing the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta a few short weeks after the central bank opted to raise its lending rates by 25 basis points. Progress has been made in the fight against inflation, she said, but rates remain above target and may warrant additional action.

"Of course, monetary policy is not on a pre-set path, and I will be closely monitoring the incoming data and their implications for the economic outlook," she said.

Consumer-level prices in the U.S. economy, an inflation gauge watched closely by the Federal Reserve, expanded last month since early 2021, but remained above the 2% target rate. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increased by 3% over the 12-month period to June, a slowdown from the 3.8% reported year-on-year to May.

So-called core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, showed a 4.1% expansion year-on-year to June, lower than the 4.6% annual reading to May and slightly better than analysts expected.

"I will be looking for evidence that inflation is on a consistent and meaningful downward path as I consider whether further increases in the federal funds rate will be needed, and how long the federal funds rate will need to remain at a sufficiently restrictive level" Bowman said.

That's been something of a running theme at the Fed. In a statement released after the latest rate increase, the Fed said it will "continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy."

The paused rate hikes in June, but made it known that more were likely later this year. The federal funds rate range is at a 22-year high of 5.25% to 5.5%.

Another batch of data on U.S. inflation are out Thursday.

Fed Gov. Bowman: More rate hikes may be necessary to meet inflationary target rate - UPI.com

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Trust me, I’m not a doctor. Your health at risk from quacks.

Biden Admin Concedes No Evidence Behind Recommendation for 6 COVID Booster Shots a Year

8/7/2023  Updated:  8/7/2023

 President Joe Biden's administration concedes that there is no scientific evidence to support an apparent recommendation to receive as many as six COVID-19 booster shots in a year.

After Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, a Biden appointee, wrote in a social media post on Nov. 29, 2022, that people should get vaccinated “if it’s been over 2 months since your last dose,” the Functional Government Initiative (FGI) filed a Freedom of Information Act request for documents supporting the statements.

The watchdog organization then sued after the administration didn't comply with timelines laid out in the law.

FGI asked for, among other documents: "Any scientific support relied on by Secretary Becerra when approving or issuing the tweet recommending that all Americans receive a booster shot every two months" and "any study, synopsis, or similar statement or document of scientific, academic, or government research on whether a bi-monthly booster shot will effectively prevent the transmission or susceptibility to COVID-19 and known active variants as of November 2022."

It also asked for internal communications regarding Mr. Becerra's statements.

In a new response, the government said it had no evidence to support Mr. Becerra's recommendation.

----"The lack of a single of a single record supporting Secretary Becerra’s bold public health recommendation for six COVID boosters a year is a startling development," Pete McGinnis, a spokesman for FGI, said in a statement.

"It is tremendously irresponsible for the government’s chief health official to fire off tweets recommending frequent injections of a new vaccine booster apparently based on no academic or scientific support," Mr. McGinnis added.

"How can the public be assured that the agency is ‘following the science’ on other important public health matters when it demonstrates such clear disregard for basic scientific integrity standards on an issue as important as COVID vaccine shots?"

The group noted that Mr. Becerra, a lawyer by training, lacks a background in health. Doctors typically lead that department.

More

Biden Admin Concedes No Evidence Behind Recommendation for 6 COVID Booster Shots a Year | The Epoch Times

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Graphene foam is the future of IoT power, maybe

August 7, 2023

A group of Scottish engineers claim to have come up with a new way to harvest the electricity wasted by everyday human movement: electrically conductive foam.…

The team from the University of West Scotland reported their findings in a recently published paper detailing the addition of three-dimensional graphene (3DG) foam to triboelectric nanogenerators (TENGs) that researchers have traditionally been trying their best to miniaturize in order to add it to things like clothing and smartphones. 

By moving away from wearability and pocketable miniaturization, the team was able to create a floor sensor that could detect and draw enough electricity from a human step to power an Arduino computer. The sensor was also connected to software able to determine if someone was entering or leaving a room and who they were "based on measuring their unique temporal pressure profile," the team said in their paper.

3DG-TENG floor sensors could be used to manage energy usage in smart buildings by, for example, adjusting heating and cooling systems based on room occupancy, turning lights and other systems off and on when the first/last person enters/leaves, and the like. 

"We have proven that using … 3DG foam as an active layer in TENGs can work as a reliable and cost-effective energy harvesting power source for autonomous sensors and electronics," said Dr Carlos Garcia Nuñez, a lecturer in engineering and physical sciences at UWS and one of the authors on the research paper. "This discovery has enormous potential for the booming global IoT industry."

Research into TENGs has been fairly constant in the decade since they were discovered, but a number of drawbacks and shortcomings have limited the technology. According to the team behind the 3DG-TENGs, low durability, high internal impedance, limited short-circuit current, and structural problems are all stumbling blocks.

More

Graphene foam is the future of IoT power, maybe (msn.com)

A local charity had never received a donation from the town’s leading bankster, so the director made a phone-call. Our records show you make over $500,000 a year, yet you haven’t given a penny to charity,” the director began. “Wouldn’t you like to help the community?”

The banker replied, “Did your research show that my mother is ill, with extremely expensive medical bills?”

“Um, no,” mumbled the director.

“Or that my brother is blind and unemployed? Or that my sister’s husband died, leaving her broke with four kids?”

“I … I … I had no idea.”

“So,” said the bankster, “if I don’t give them any money, why would I give any money to you?”

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