Tuesday, 8 August 2023

The Great Global Slowdown. US Banks Downgraded.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1145 +09           Brent Crude 85.37

Spot Gold 1934                  US 2 Year Yield 4.76 -0.02

August 8,1786  US Congress unanimously chooses the dollar as the monetary unit for the United States of America.

In the stock casinos, disbelief that the global economy just doesn’t get the incredible optimism of the stock casinos.

Bubble on, AI hype will soon turn around an increasingly stormy looking real economy, the punters think.

I think the latest casino bubble bursts in H2 23, just possibly by the end of this month.


Asia markets mixed as China trade tumbles more than expected

UPDATED MON, AUG 7 2023 11:35 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Tuesday as China’s July trade came in lower than expected.

China saw a 14.5% year-on-year drop in exports, while imports came in 12.4% lower year-on-year. Economists polled by Reuters expected a 12.5% slide in exports and a 5% drop in imports.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped 0.87%, while mainland Chinese markets were more mixed. The Shanghai Composite fell 0.2%, but the Shenzhen Component was marginally up.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.31%, while the Topix was up 0.32% as the country’s household spending remained in negative territory for the fourth straight month. Overall household spending fell 4.2% year on year in June, compared with 4% in May, official data showed.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.19%, while South Korea’s Kospi inched up marginally and the Kosdaq slipped 0.43%.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes gained as investors continue to digest better-than-expected earnings results. Roughly 85% of S&P 500 stocks have reported quarterly results, and nearly 80% of them have beaten Wall Street’s expectations, according to FactSet.

The 30-stock Dow surged nearly 1.2%, for its best day since June 15. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.6%, and S&P 500 closed higher by 0.9%. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P500 broke four-straight sessions of losses.

Asia markets mixed as China trade tumbles more than expected (cnbc.com)


China reports double-digit plunge in July exports and imports, missing expectations

BEIJING — China said Tuesday that exports fell by 14.5% in July from a year ago, while imports dropped by 12.4% in U.S. dollar terms.

That’s worse than what analysts had expected.

A Reuters poll predicted a 12.5% decline in exports in July from a year ago, in U.S. dollar terms. Imports were expected to have dropped by 5% during that time, according to the poll.

China’s exports to the U.S. plunged by 23.1% year-on-year in July, while those to the European Union fell by 20.6%, CNBC analysis of customs data showed. Exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations fell by 21.4%, according to the data.

China’s imports from Russia fell by 8.1% in July from a year ago, the data showed.

A slowdown in U.S. and other major economies’ growth has dragged down Chinese exports this year. Meanwhile, China’s domestic demand has remained lackluster.

Chinese imports of crude oil dropped by 20.8% in July from a year ago, while imports of integrated circuits fell by nearly 17%.

July’s decline in trade adds to recent weakness in China’s exports and imports.

On a year-to-date basis, China’s exports for the first seven months of the year fell by 5% from a year ago, while imports dropped by 7.6% during that time.

Among the few higher-value export categories that saw a significant increase in the first seven months of the year were cars, refined oil and bags, suitcases and similar receptacles.

For imports, paper pulp, coal products and edible vegetable oil were among the categories seeing significant growth in the January to July period from a year ago.

Exports remain an important part of China’s overall economic activity, although its share has fallen in recent years.

An official measure of Chinese manufacturing activity posted a fourth-straight month of contraction in July.

A similar survey from Caixin for July found that manufacturers’ new export business contracted at the fastest pace since September 2022.

China reports double-digit plunge in July exports and imports, missing expectations (cnbc.com)

Finally, what drag effect will Yellow’s bankruptcy have on the US economy?

Moody’s downgrades US banks.

Yellow Files for Bankruptcy, Blames Union for Downfall

August 7, 2023

U.S. trucking firm Yellow Corp. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Aug. 6 after the company buckled under pressure from a mounting debt load as well as a standoff with an employee union.

“It is with profound disappointment that Yellow announces that it is closing after nearly 100 years in business,” Yellow CEO Darren Hawkins said in an Aug. 6 statement. “Today, it is not common for someone to work at one company for 20, 30, or even 40 years, yet many at Yellow did. For generations, Yellow provided hundreds of thousands of Americans with solid, good-paying jobs and fulfilling careers.”

The Nashville, Tennessee-based nearly 100-year-old company's bankruptcy filing puts about 30,000 workers at risk at a time when the freight industry is already grappling with slumping volumes.

The company is a dominant player in the "less-than-truckload" segment that hauls cargo for multiple customers on a single truck.

Its clients include large retailers such as Walmart and Home Depot, manufacturers, and Uber Freight. Some companies had paused shipments to Yellow because of fears that they could be lost or stranded if the trucking firm went bankrupt.

Prior to its demise, Yellow, one of the largest U.S. trucking companies, held roughly 8 percent to 10 percent of the market share, per brokerage firm TD Cowen.

More

Yellow Files for Bankruptcy, Blames Union for Downfall | The Epoch Times

 

Moody’s Cuts US Banks on Mounting Funding Costs, Office Exposure

Tue, August 8, 2023 at 2:23 AM GMT+1

(Bloomberg) -- Moody’s Investors Service lowered credit ratings for 10 small and midsize US banks and said it may downgrade major lenders including U.S. Bancorp, Bank of New York Mellon Corp., State Street Corp., and Truist Financial Corp. as part of a sweeping look at mounting pressures on the industry.

Higher funding costs, potential regulatory capital weaknesses and rising risks tied to commercial real estate loans amid weakening demand for office space are among strains prompting the review, Moody’s said in a spree of notes late Monday.

“Collectively, these three developments have lowered the credit profile of a number of US banks, though not all banks equally,” it wrote in some of the assessments.

Firms that had ratings cut included M&T Bank Corp., Webster Financial Corp., BOK Financial Corp., Old National Bancorp, Pinnacle Financial Partners Inc., and Fulton Financial Corp.

Northern Trust Co. and Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc. are also under review for downgrades.

And Moody’s adopted a “negative” outlook for 11 lenders including PNC Financial Services Group, Capital One Financial Corp., Citizens Financial Group Inc., Fifth Third Bancorp, Regions Financial Corp., Ally Financial Inc., Bank OZK and Huntington Bancshares Inc.

----“Rising funding costs and declining income metrics will erode profitability, the first buffer against losses,” Moody’s wrote in a separate note explaining the moves. “Asset risk is rising, in particular for small and mid-size banks with large CRE exposures.”

Some banks have curbed loan growth, which preserves capital but also slows the shift in their loan mix toward higher-yielding assets, Moody’s said.

Banks that depend on more concentrated or higher levels of uninsured deposits are more exposed to these pressures, especially banks with high levels of fixed-rate securities and loans.

Moody’s Cuts US Banks on Mounting Funding Costs, Office Exposure (yahoo.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

China can no longer 'extend and pretend' on municipal debt

By Kevin Yao and Samuel Shen 

BEIJING, Aug 7 (Reuters) - China's promised "basket of measures" to defuse local government debt risks is likely to include special bond issuance, debt swaps, loan rollovers, and something Beijing really loathes: dipping into the central budget.

Local governments are fundamental to China's economy, with Beijing tasking provincial and city officials with meeting ambitious growth targets. But after years of over-investment in infrastructure, plummeting returns from land sales and soaring COVID costs, economists say debt-laden municipalities now represent a major risk to China's economy.

 

Chinese leaders last month pledged, without detailing, to help ease their debts, signalling worries over a potential chain of municipal debt defaults destabilising the financial sector.

Economists took that message as being more constructive than in April, when Communist Party leaders demanded "strict control" of local debts. The implication, they say, is that Beijing has realised it needs to urgently throw cash at the problem.

That could represent a major breakthrough in finding a way out of China's municipal debt crisis, with Beijing having for years demanded that local administrations sort themselves out.

"The local debt problem is complex so you cannot simply say you don’t want to take responsibility," said Guo Tianyong, professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics in Beijing, explaining the politburo's directions.

The extent of any central government involvement, and any conditions attached to it, are still subject to debate, two policy advisers told Reuters. Whether the package of measures will be a short-term or multi-year plan also remains unknown.

These details will be key for investors to gauge how decisive and long-lasting Beijing's solution will be.

More

China can no longer 'extend and pretend' on municipal debt | Reuters

German industrial output falls further in June

August 7, 2023

BERLIN (Reuters) - German industrial production dropped more strongly than forecast in June, according to data released on Monday, underlining the challenges faced by manufacturing amid a downturn in Europe's largest economy.

Production fell by 1.5% compared with the previous month, the federal statistics office said on Monday. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a 0.5% decline.

The office offers more detailed data on its website.

"The minus in June provides a taster for the poor production figures that are on the horizon for the coming months," said Commerzbank chief economist Joerg Kraemer.

He pointed to a downward trend in orders and indications that companies had already worked off their order backlogs from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Germany's manufacturing sector has already had a difficult year so far due to dwindling orders, sluggish output and high prices, with the HCOB final Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing falling for a sixth consecutive month in July.

Kraemer said the German economy was expected to contract again in the second half of 2023.

Germany's winter recession ended in the second quarter, when GDP stagnated, according to preliminary data.

German industrial output falls further in June (msn.com)

 

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

3 Asian countries still have Covid-19 entry requirements in August 2023 - here’s which ones

August 7, 2023

  • While most countries in Asia have now dropped Covid-19 entry requirements, mainland China, Myanmar and Iran are holding out - here are their respective rules
  • Some countries that have dropped measures still require travellers to submit a health declaration form upon arrival, such as the Philippines

It has been more than three years since the World Health Organization declared the Covid-19 outbreak a public health emergency of international concern, and most of the world has rebounded from complete lockdowns to restriction-free travel.

But while most countries have dropped mandates for proof of vaccination and negative test results, there are still a number that have Covid-19 entry requirements in effect.

Three of those are in Asia (at the time of writing), so be sure to pay close attention to their respective rules if you're planning on visiting.

1. Mainland China

Although quarantine and vaccine requirements have been lifted for visitors to mainland China, all arrivals are still required to take either a PCR or RAT test 48 hours before their flight.

They then have to declare a negative test result by filling in the Health Declaration Form on the China Customs website, through the China Customs app, or via China Customs' WeChat account.

Airlines will no longer check for negative test results, but customs officials may conduct inspections. Those who enter with an abnormal health declaration, fever, or other Covid-19 symptoms may be required to undergo further testing and medical investigation.

More

3 Asian countries still have Covid-19 entry requirements in August 2023 - here’s which ones (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Solar power to the rescue as Europe's energy system weathers extreme heat

07 August,2023 

BRUSSELS/LONDON (Reuters) – A major increase in solar power generation in southern Europe played a leading role in averting energy shortages during the heatwaves of recent weeks when temperatures broke records and drove unprecedented demand for air conditioning.

Solar power is particularly suited to coping with summer heat as the sun's radiation is strongest around the hottest part of the day, when electricity demand for cooling is also at its highest.

"The very significant growth in solar basically compensates for the peaks that are caused by air conditioning," Kristian Ruby, secretary general of electricity industry group Eurelectric, said of the situation in Spain.

Spain and Greece are among the countries that have installed many more solar panels in the face of record high energy prices last year and the quest for increased energy security linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Spain added a record 4.5 gigawatts of solar photovoltaic capacity last year, resulting in solar energy output in July - typically one of the sunniest months - that was higher than any month to date, Spanish electricity grid operator Red Electrica said.

Data from Ember showed solar provided almost 24 per cent of Spain's electricity in July this year, up from 16pc in July 2022.

When soaring temperatures and demand for cooling led to a peak in Sicilian power demand on July 24, nearly half of the excess demand - which totalled 1.3 GW - was covered by solar, Refinitiv data show. Sicily's solar production last month was more than double that of July 2022.

"Without the additional solar, the system stability impact would have turned out much worse," Refinitiv power analyst Nathalie Gerl said.

Solar alone cannot hold up grids under severe strain. Catania, below Mount Etna in eastern Sicily, has faced power and water supply cuts that local officials blamed in part on the heat. In Athens, power grid operator IPTO said wildfires had damaged sections of the electricity grid.

But higher solar output helped to satisfy demand in both countries. During Greece's peak power demand this year, also on July 24, solar photovoltaics covered 3.5GW of the total 10.35GW demand, grid operator IPTO said.

Even in cooler and less sunny western countries such as Belgium, solar energy has covered more than 100pc of the extra energy needed during midday spikes in power demand.

Despite its fast growth, solar is still a relatively small share of the power mix in most countries, where sources including wind, gas, coal and nuclear power typically cover the bulk of demand over the year.

Analysts say a second factor has helped to keep Europe's energy systems running this summer: overall, power demand has been relatively low.

That has been the case since Europe's energy crisis last year, when Russia cut gas deliveries to Europe. Energy prices in Europe are still high compared with historic levels - and consumers and industries have responded by using less power.

Extreme heat this summer has broken through this trend at times. But overall, demand has been below normal - Italy's average hourly power use in July was 4.4pc lower than in July 2022, while Spain's was down by 3.6pc, Refinitiv data show.

"The only reason why this has been bearable is the low power demand environment that we're currently in," Refinitiv's Gerl said.

More

Solar power to the rescue as Europe's energy system weathers extreme heat - Business - Dunya News

"We contend that for a nation to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle."

Sir Winston Churchill.

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