Baltic Dry Index. 1129 -08 Brent Crude 86.81
Spot Gold 1914 U
S 2 Year Yield 4.89 +0.07
August
12, 1851 American inventor Isaac Singer patents the sewing machine
Oldway Mansion is a large house and gardens in Paignton, Devon, England. It was built as a private
residence for Isaac Singer (1811–1875), and rebuilt by his
son Paris Singer, in the style of the Palace of Versailles.
In the stock casinos, more distress. Is the 2023 stock mania ending? Fewer and fewer stocks now push the indexes higher, while the latest NASDAQ bubble seems to have burst.
With the latest US CPI and PPI figures released this week, is US inflation over or about to return?
In global property markets, from China to Europe to America, defaults are now starting to occur. Just how bad will China’s property bust become and what does it mean for the global economy. Nothing good I expect.
In cryptoland, FTX founder and alleged super-crook, Sam Bankman-Fried goes back to jail.
Nasdaq Composite slips Friday, falls two weeks straight for the first time in 2023: Live updates
UPDATED FRI, AUG 11 2023 4:59 PM EDT
The Nasdaq Composite ended
Friday lower and notched its second consecutive losing week in 2023 as
semiconductor stocks languished.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq slid about
0.6% to end at 13,644.85, pulled down by a selloff in semiconductor stocks such
as Advanced Micro
Devices, Nvidia and Micron.
The VanEck
Semiconductor ETF (SMH) ended
the week down 5.2%, its worst week since October 2022.
The S&P 500 inched
lower by 0.1%, ending at 4,464.05. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added
105.25 points, or 0.3%, closing at 35,281.40. The 30-stock index was helped by
advances of 2.1% and 1.8% in Chevron and Merck & Co.,
respectively.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq
declined about 0.3% and 1.9%, respectively, on the week. Both registered their
second straight losing week — a first of that length for the technology-heavy
Nasdaq since the conclusion of a four-week losing streak in December 2022.
The Dow is an outlier of the
three major averages, advancing 0.6% this week.
Investors had much to celebrate
earlier in the week.
July’s
consumer price index, a major inflation reading for markets and the
Federal Reserve, came in softer than anticipated on a year-over-year basis.
Prices climbed 3.2% on an annual basis, less than the Dow Jones consensus
estimate of 3.3%.
To be sure, the CPI reading
showed some signs of stickiness. So-called core CPI, which excludes volatile
food and energy costs, rose 4.7% from the prior year.
Elsewhere, Disney rallied
on the back of its earnings
report released Wednesday. Despite a pullback in Friday’s
session, shares were 3.2% higher on the week. That marks the biggest weekly
gain for the entertainment giant since March.
But inflation data released
Friday complicated the picture. July’s
producer price index, which tracks the price wholesalers pay for raw
goods, rose 0.3% from the previous month. Economists polled by Dow Jones
expected a 0.2% increase month over month.
This week’s moves are the latest
in what’s been a rocky patch for the stock market after a strong performance in
the first half of the year. The three major indexes are all lower than where they
began August.
“Investors continue to try to
hang their hat on more consistency” within economic data, said Greg Bassuk, CEO
of AXS Investments. “What we’re seeing with these mixed results certainly
increases the likelihood of more volatility ahead.”
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Wholesale
prices rose 0.3% in July, higher than expected
PUBLISHED FRI, AUG 11 2023 8:35 AM EDT
A measure of wholesale prices rose more than expected in July, countering
recent trends showing that inflation pressures are easing.
The producer price index, which gauges the costs that goods and
services producers receive for their products as opposed to those that
consumers pay, rose 0.3% for the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
Friday.
Excluding food and energy, core PPI also increased 0.3%.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting an increase of 0.2% for
both readings. Excluding food, energy and trade services, PPI increased 0.2%.
On a year-over-year basis, headline PPI was up just 0.8%. Prices excluding
food, energy and trade services moved up by 2.7%.
Markets moved
lower following the report, with futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average down about 70 points. Treasury yields advanced, with the
benchmark 10-year note last
at 4.137%, up about 0.06 percentage points on the session.
Services costs pushed the index higher, rising 0.5% for the month, the
largest gain since August 2022. Much of that came from a 7.6% surge in prices for
portfolio management. In addition, there was a 0.7% jump in prices for trade
services, along with a 0.5% increase in transportation and warehousing.
Goods prices rose just 0.1%, though food prices increased 0.5% while prices
excluding food and energy were unchanged. Within the food category, meats
surged 5%. Energy was a mixed bag: Costs for many gas fuels increased, but
diesel declined by 7.1%.
More
Wholesale prices rose 0.3% in July, higher than
expected (cnbc.com)
U.S. judge sends FTX’s Sam
Bankman-Fried to jail over witness tampering
Sam Bankman-Fried will head to jail on Friday after a judge sided with a
request by federal prosecutors to revoke the FTX founder’s bail over alleged
witness tampering. Bankman-Fried was remanded to custody directly from a court
hearing in New York.
Judge Lewis Kaplan denied Bankman-Fried’s request for delayed detention
pending an appeal. Unless the appeal is successful, he is expected to remain in
custody until his criminal trial, which is due to begin on Oct. 2.
“My conclusion is there is probable cause to believe the defendant tried
to tamper with witnesses at least twice,” said Judge Kaplan during his ruling.
As the court marshals took Bankman-Fried into custody at the end of the
hearing, the defendant took off his blazer, tie, emptied his pockets, and
appeared to remove his shoes. Bankman-Fried’s parents were both in the gallery.
His mother had her face buried in her hands for much of Judge Kaplan’s lengthy
ruling.
The government requested that Bankman-Fried be remanded to a jail in
Putnam, New York, where he’d have access to a laptop with internet access for
defense preparation, as opposed to sending him to Brooklyn’s Metropolitan
Detention Center, the facility closest to the courthouse that has limited
internet access for prisoners.
More
FTX's
Sam Bankman-Fried sent to jail over witness tampering (cnbc.com)
In
other news, it doesn’t look good for the global property sector.
Munich developer insolvent in latest blow to German property
sector
August 11, 2023
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - A Munich-based property
developer said on Friday it had filed to open insolvency proceedings with a
local court, in the latest sign of stress in Germany's real estate sector.
Euroboden GmbH, with 115 million euros ($126
million) in bonds outstanding and facing possible downgrades in its credit
rating, said in a statement that negotiations for property sales had fallen
through, hurting its finances.
It also cancelled a meeting with bondholders later
this month, where it had hoped to restructure its debt.
"The market outlook for project developers
continues to be negative," Euroboden said, citing high construction costs
and interest rates, a slump in demand, and difficulty in getting credit.
Germany has long benefited from an era of cheap
money that fuelled a boom in real estate, but now the sector is grappling with
a major turn of fortune.
New building permits and construction have
plummeted as residential property prices fall and construction job growth
stagnates.
Euroboden was founded in 1999 and expanded to
Berlin and elsewhere during a decade-long property boom.
Though not large - it made a net profit of 25
million euros and counted 55 employees when it marketed its latest bonds -
Euroboden underscores broader sector troubles as the latest in a wave of
insolvencies.
Earlier this week, Duesseldorf-based company
Development Partner said it had also filed for insolvency, and in July,
property developer Centrum Group did so too, citing a "toxic
triangle" of cost increases, higher interest rates and stalled investment.
Weakness in real estate has also emerged in the
United States and Sweden.
Germany is Europe's largest economy and the biggest
real estate investment market on the continent. The property sector accounts
for roughly a fifth of Germany's economic output and one in ten jobs.
In a July investor presentation, Euroboden said it
had hoped to extend its bonds by three years, and it was refocusing on core
business in Munich and Berlin after closing an office in Frankfurt.
Munich developer insolvent in latest blow to German property sector (msn.com)
Finally,
more on China’s imploding property bubble. Coming next, China exporting
deflation out to the rest of the world.
Country Garden worries send
reverberations across Chinese property sector
Published: 07:42 11 Aug 2023
Shares in the Chinese
property giant, Country Garden Holdings Co., Ltd, hit new lows amid fears
it is facing a painful debt restructuring.
Its stock, down 64% in the
year to date, was off 5.8% on Friday sending reverberations across the sector.
In fact, contagion dragged local indices lower.
Country Garden, known for
its presence in lower-tier cities, recently forecast a potential loss of
up to $7.6 billion for the first half of the year and apologised to investors
for misreading market dynamics.
A recent missed payment of
$22 million might push regulators towards stronger support measures, but
industry experts remain sceptical about a swift sector recovery.
Reports suggest Country Garden might seek
payment extensions due to cash shortages. Meanwhile, other major Chinese
property developers are also navigating debt restructuring challenges.
China's Ghost
Cities: The Truth Behind The Empty Megacities
Approx.
11 minutes.
China's
Ghost Cities: The Truth Behind The Empty Megacities - YouTube
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
UK economy shrugs off recession risk after growing faster
than expected
August
11, 2023
The UK
economy grew faster than expected in June with gross domestic product (GDP)
rebounding from a slight contraction following the King’s coronation.
The
latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimate that the
UK economy grew 0.5 per cent in June, rebounding from a 0.1 per cent
contraction in May.
Across
the second quarter as a whole, the economy grew 0.2 per cent following a 0.1
per cent expansion in the first quarter.
GDP in
June was lifted by 1.8 per cent growth in production output while the
construction sector grew 1.6 per cent. The all important services sector grew
0.2 per cent in June.
It was
the first time since October 2022 that all three sectors of the economy
recorded growth.
June’s month’s figures were boosted by being compared to May,
when there was an extra bank holiday for the king’s coronation which tipped the
economy into contraction.
“A
range of businesses cited the additional bank holiday in May as a reason for
increased output in June 2023 compared with May 2023,” the ONS said.
The UK
economy is now predicted to be 0.8 per cent larger than it was before Covid-19,
meaning the country has barely expanded at all in the last three and a half
years.
Commentators have become increasingly concerned by the UK’s
sluggish rate of growth over the past few years.
A recent report published by the National Institute
for Economic and Social (NIESR) research warned that it will take until
the end of 2024 for UK output –
a broader measure than GDP – to surpass its pre-pandemic level, with the think
tank highlighting five years of lost economic growth.
More
UK economy shrugs off recession risk after growing
faster than expected (msn.com)
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
COVID-19 Vagus Nerve Inflammation May Lead to Dysautonomia: New Study
August
9, 2023
New data may provide answers for
those experiencing persistent symptoms long after their bout with
COVID-19 has ended. These may include fatigue, lightheadedness, brain fog,
cognitive issues, gastrointestinal problems, heart palpitations, shortness of
breath, or an inability to tolerate upright postures.
A July 15 study published in Acta Neuropathologica suggests that SARS-CoV-2
infection may damage the nerves of the autonomic nervous system (ANS), causing
an inflammatory response that can later lead to dysautonomia observed in long
COVID patients.
Study Findings
Using several methods, researchers
at the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf in Germany performed a
microscopic analysis of the vagus nerves in 27 deceased patients with COVID-19
and five controls who died of other causes, without COVID-19.
The vagus nerve is a vital component of the ANS that
regulates critical functions such as digestion, respiratory and heart rate, and
immune response. Vagus nerve signaling to the brainstem also controls the
“sickness behavior response,” where the brain mounts flu-like symptoms
including nausea, fatigue, pain, and other chronic symptoms in response to
inflammation.
The researchers detected
SARS-CoV-2 RNA in vagus nerve samples obtained from deceased patients with
severe COVID-19 showing direct infection of the nerve was accompanied by
inflammatory cell infiltration composed mostly of monocytes—a type of white
blood cell that finds and destroys germs and eliminates infected
cells. Their analysis revealed a “strong enrichment of genes regulating
antiviral responses and interferon signaling,” supporting the idea that vagus
nerve inflammation is a common phenomenon with COVID-19.
The researchers also analyzed 23
vagus nerve samples of deceased COVID-19 patients grouped into low,
intermediate, and high SARS-CoV-2 RNA viral load to determine if the virus was
directly detectable in the vagus nerve and if the viral load correlated with
vagus nerve dysfunction. Results showed the virus was present in the vagus
nerve and also determined there was a direct correlation between SARS-CoV-2
viral RNA load and dysfunction of the central nervous system.
Researchers then screened a cohort
of 323 patients admitted to the emergency room between Feb. 13, 2020, and Aug.
15, 2022, categorized by whether they had mild, moderate, severe, critical, or
lethal COVID-19. They found that the respiratory rate increased in survivors
but decreased in non-survivors of critical COVID-19. These results suggest
SARS-CoV-2 induces vagus nerve inflammation followed by autonomic dysfunction
(respiratory rate decrease), which “contributes to critical disease courses and
might contribute to dysautonomia observed in long COVID.”
Responding to the study,
microbiologist Amy Proal of PolyBio Research Foundation wrote on X, “Because the vagus nerve is an essential
component of the #autonomic nervous system and regulates body functions such as
heart rate, digestion, and respiratory rate, direct infection of the nerve by
SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to related symptoms.” She added, “The findings
beg the question: Could persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection of the vagus nerve
contribute to dysautonomia in #LongCovid?”
What is Dysautonomia?
Nearly 1 in 5 people in the United States continue to
experience unexplained symptoms of long COVID after their infection ends, with
as many as 66 percent of patients suffering from moderate to
severe dysfunction of the ANS known as dysautonomia.
Dysautonomia is a disorder of the
ANS, a part of the central nervous system that controls vital involuntary functions
such as breathing, heart rate, blood pressure, digestion, skin and body
temperature regulation, salivating, hormonal and bladder function, and sexual
function. The ANS also plays a role in the acute “fight or flight” stress
response and sends messages to and from internal organs.
More
COVID-19 Vagus Nerve Inflammation May Lead to Dysautonomia: New Study (theepochtimes.com)
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Is that viral ‘superconductor’ legit?
August 11, 2023
LK-99 hasn’t turned out to be
the miraculous superconductor some people initially claimed it was.
The newly discovered material
made headlines after a research team claimed it was the first room-temperature
superconductor, which could revolutionize our energy system. Speculation that
it could bring on a perfect power grid or easily make trains levitate sparked a
frenzy to test whether LK-99 really was as game-changing as portrayed by the
original team.
But the results so far
indicate that LK-99 is not a superconductor, at room temperature or otherwise.
A slew of research groups have released studies that counter claims originally
made about LK-99.
“With a great deal of
sadness, we now believe that the game is over. LK99 is NOT a superconductor,
not even at room temperatures (or at very low temperatures). It is a very
highly resistive poor quality material. Period. No point in fighting with the
truth,” the University of Maryland’s Condensed Matter Theory Center
(CMTC) posted on August 7th.
A
superconductor is any material that can conduct electricity with zero
resistance (The Verge has a more in-depth explainer here). That
saves a lot of energy from being lost and also makes for powerful
electromagnets. There are other superconductors used today in quantum computers
and MRI machines. But they only work in extremely cold temperatures (hundreds
of degrees below zero Fahrenheit) or under very high pressures. That keeps them
from being deployed more widely in ways that could potentially change daily
life.
What made LK-99 so exciting initially was the prospect of having
a new superconductor that could work at room temperature and under ambient
pressure. Having a superconductor that can be used in more normal conditions
would open up all kinds of possibilities, ranging from improving existing
technologies, like more powerful medical imaging machines, to potentially
bringing moonshot technologies like nuclear fusion reactors within reach.
“We
believe that our new development will be a brand-new historical event that
opens a new era for humankind,” researchers who discovered the LK-99 wrote in a
now controversial paper they
published in late July without peer review. There were inconsistencies in data
they published, and many outside experts had their doubts from the start.
The
Quantum Energy Research Centre in South Korea, which published the paper, did
not respond to requests for comment.
Proving
whether LK-99 was the real deal depended on whether other researchers could
replicate the Korean researchers’ results. Prestigious research labs across the
globe took on the task, as did enthusiastic amateurs caught up in a wave of
viral social media posts about LK-99. They set out to make samples of the
material and test it themselves. Some people livestreamed their efforts on Twitch.
Labs hurriedly published their own results on ArXiv, the same server
for preprints (papers that haven’t undergone peer review) where the original
papers on LK-99 first appeared.
Now, a body of evidence has piled up that disproves claims about
LK-99. “There is no sign of superconductivity in LK-99 at room temperature,”
says one preprint from the CSIR-National
Physical Laboratory in India. (That was one of the
papers cited by the University of Maryland’s
Condensed Matter Theory Center this week when it posted that “the game is
over.”)
Another
crucial test for LK-99 was over its ability to levitate. The researchers who
discovered it shared a video of
a fragment of the material appearing to partially levitate over a magnet. That
happens with superconductors because they expel a magnetic field through a
phenomenon called the Meissner effect. Another popular video on
social media showed another shard of LK-99, made by a research team from
Huazhong University of Science and Technology, appearing to levitate.
But
hopes that levitation meant that LK-99 is a superconductor were dashed this
week after another preprint posed another explanation for why the material
might float. The International Center
for Quantum Materials in China found
evidence that the material is ferromagnetic. That means it can be magnetized
and then attracted or repelled by other magnetic materials (iron, for example,
is ferromagnetic).
More
Is that viral ‘superconductor’ legit? (msn.com)
This weekend’s music
diversion. Another long forgotten Czech master. Approx. 8 minutes.
Concerto
for Bassoon and Orchestra in C Major, LMik. JAK XIV:1: I. Allegro
Concerto for Bassoon and Orchestra in C Major, LMik.
JAK XIV:1: I. Allegro - YouTube
Leopold
Koželuch
This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 13
minutes.
The
Incredible Praggnanandhaa
ThE Incredible Praggnanandhaa - YouTube
This weekend’s interesting maths
update. Approx. 18 minutes.
The
History of the Natural Logarithm - How was it discovered?
The History of the Natural Logarithm - How was it
discovered? - YouTube
August 12, 1588.
Admiral of the English fleet, Lord
Howard of Effingham, calls off the chase of the remnants of the Spanish Armada
off the east coast of Scotland. The surviving ships must now travel around the
north of Scotland and west coast of Ireland in an attempt to return to Spain.
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