Baltic Dry Index. 1110 -41 Brent Crude 83.65
Spot Gold 1913 US 2 Year Yield 4.98 +0.03
Central bankers always try to avoid their last big mistake. So every time there's the threat of a contraction in the economy, they'll over stimulate the economy, by printing too much money. The result will be a rising roller coaster of inflation, with each high and low being higher than the preceding one.
Milton Friedman.
In the Asian stock casinos, nervousness ahead of Fed Chairman Powell’s big speech. If he gets the tone of his speech and the Fed’s view of the future wrong, Chairman Powell can set off a stock casino rout in the USA later today and in the Asian stock casinos next week.
Surely he knows that and wouldn’t do that would he?
But the punters in the Asian stock casinos aren’t so sure that the US stock casinos have Chairman Powell and the Fed trapped over a stock bubble barrel.
US inflation is expected to start rising again, if only for technical reasons, although persistent food price inflation has now been joined by wage price inflation in the USA and much of Europe.
Chairman Powell’s speech later today is a
high wire walk in the sky without a safety net.
Japan’s Nikkei
down nearly 2%, leading losses in Asia ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech
UPDATED FRI, AUG 25 2023 12:40 AM
EDT
Asia-Pacific markets fell across the board as
investors prepared for signals on U.S. monetary policy from central bankers’
comments at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday, including a speech by U.S.
Federal Reserve chair Jerome
Powell.
In Asia, the core inflation rate
for Japan’s capital Tokyo came in at 2.8% for August, slightly below the 2.9%
expected by economists polled by Reuters. The core inflation rate strips out
prices of fresh food.
Overall inflation for Tokyo was
recorded at 2.9%, lower than the 3.2% seen in July.
apan’s Nikkei 225 tumbled
1.74% and led losses in Asia, while the Topix was down 0.78%.
Elsewhere, South Korea’s Kospi fell
0.57% and the Kosdaq hovered just below the flatline. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 also
lost 0.95%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was
0.92% down, while mainland Chinese markets saw a smaller loss, with the CSI 300
falling 0.46%.
On Thursday in the U.S., all three major indexes
fell as the tech fueled rally ended, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average seeing
its worst day since March, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite saw
their biggest one-day loss since Aug. 2.
The Dow closed 1.08% lower and
the S&P 500 lost
1.35%. The Nasdaq saw the
largest loss, shedding 1.87%.
Powell’s pivotal
speech Friday could see a marked shift from what he’s done in the past
Since he took over the chair’s position at the
Federal Reserve in 2018, Jerome
Powell has used his annual addresses at the Jackson Hole
retreat to push policy agendas that have run from one end of the policy playing
field to the other.
In this year’s iteration, many
expect the central bank leader to change his stance so that he hits the ball
pretty much down the middle.
With inflation
decelerating and the economy still on solid ground, Powell may
feel less of a need to guide the public and financial markets and instead go
for more of a call-‘em-as-we-see-’em posture toward monetary policy.
“I just think he’s going to play it about as down the middle as
possible,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities
America. “That just gives him more optionality. He doesn’t want to get himself
boxed into a corner one way or another.”
If Powell does take a noncommittal strategy, that
will put the speech in the middle of, for instance, 2022′s
surprisingly aggressive — and terse — remarks warning of higher
rates and economic “pain” ahead, and 2020′s
announcing of a new framework in which the Fed would hold off
on rate hikes until it had achieved “full and inclusive” employment.
The speech will
start Friday about 10:05 a.m. ET.
Nervous markets
Despite the
anticipation for a circumspect Powell, markets Thursday braced for an
unpleasant surprise, with stocks
selling off and Treasury yields climbing. Last year’s speech
also featured downbeat anticipation and a sour reception, with the S&P 500 off
2% in the five trading days before the speech and down 5.5% in the five after,
according to DataTrek Research.
A day’s wavering on Wall Street, though, is
unlikely to sway Powell from delivering his intended message.
“I don’t know how
hawkish he needs to be given the fact that the funds rate is clearly in
restrictive territory by their definition, and the fact the market has finally
bought into the Fed’s own forecast of rate cuts not happening until around the
middle or second half of next year,” said LaVorgna, who was chief economist for
the National Economic Council under former President Donald Trump.
More
Powell
Jackson Hole speech could see a shift from the past (cnbc.com)
Back in the real world economy, where people
must work for a living, more sign of that arriving global recession. A not so
soft landing looks increasingly likely ahead, no matter how central banksters
try fiddling the books.
Container ships
are waiting at Asian ports as retailers struggle to shift excess stock
It’s been a slow summer for shipping routes from
Asia to Europe and beyond — and hopes of a traditional peak season when holiday
orders are imported are fading.
As firms making goods from apparel
to electronics hold excess stock, there’s less of a demand to ship products.
This means some vessels are waiting in ports because of sailings being
“blanked,” or canceled.
MSC, the world’s largest container company, canceled last week’s voyage of
the 366 meter long MSC Deila from Asia to northern Europe due to “slowing
demand” on the route, it said on its website.
The massive vessel can carry 14,000 20-foot
shipping containers (known as twenty-foot equivalent units, or TEU) and its
sailing was also canceled the week before. “We are arranging a contingency plan
with alternative services,” MSC added. In late July, the company also blanked a
scheduled sailing of the MSC Topaz on a similar route.
“Carriers will be doing … ‘capacity
management,’ which means laying up ships,” said Sanne Manders, president of
ocean and air at freight broker Flexport, speaking to CNBC by video call. “If
you fly to Singapore, you’ll see all these ships outside the port … A lot of
ships are parked there waiting till there are better yields,” he added.
The blank sailings come as large
shipping companies’ latest earnings plunged. Last month, CMA CGM said its
EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) for the
second quarter was down 73% to $2.6 billion compared to
the same time last year, while Hapag-Lloyd’s first-half EBITDA was down
to $3.8 billion from $10.9 billion for the same period in 2022.
Maersk
reported a sharp fall in its second-quarter profit before
interest, tax, depreciation and amortization of $2.91 billion, well below the
record $10.3 billion for the same quarter in 2022.
More
Ships
wait at Asian ports as retailers struggle to shift excess stock (cnbc.com)
China has no
pain-free solutions for its slowing economy
By Ellen Zhang and Marius Zaharia August 25, 202312:16 AM GMT+1
BEIJING/HONG
KONG, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Erin Yao would like to take street dance classes and
travel, activities she could not do during three years of COVID-19 restrictions
in China.
Instead of
pursuing such goals, as many economists had expected consumers to do once China
lifted those curbs, she is saving more of her salary than she did during the
pandemic, when she felt compelled to stock up on basic necessities.
"I would
ask myself if I have enough savings for treating an unexpected illness. If I
lose my job, do I have enough money to sustain myself until I find a new
one?" said the 30-year-old book editor.
Yao's
reluctance to spend is the result of an economic
growth model from the 1980s that many say has relied too heavily on
investment in property, infrastructure and industry and not enough on
empowering consumers to earn and buy more.
But
while faltering
growth in the world's No.2 economy has given rebalancing a new sense
of urgency, transferring economic resources to households would require
difficult decisions that would cause even more near-term pain.
Specifically,
boosting households' share of national income would mean a decline in the share
of other sectors, either businesses - in particular China's sprawling
industries - or the government sector.
"Their fall
will make a recession unavoidable," said Juan Orts, China economist at
Fathom Consulting.
"We think
that this is a price that Beijing is not willing to pay," said Orts, who
sees China heading towards "Japanification," which refers to Tokyo's
"lost decades" of economic stagnation since the 1990s.
In theory, Yao
could spend more if she found a job paying more than her 8,000 yuan ($1,097)
monthly salary, which is less than a fifth of what book editors earn in the
United States, according to employment website Glassdoor.
But
China's employment market is weak, with youth
joblessness at record highs above 21%.
The private
sector, responsible for 80% of new urban jobs, is still recovering from
regulatory crackdowns on tech and other industries.
Policymakers
have vowed to boost credit to firms, but businesses are ultimately constrained
by frail domestic demand.
More
China
has no pain-free solutions for its slowing economy | Reuters
It is possible to increase paper-money income to any amount by debasing the currency. But real income can only be increased by working harder or more efficiently, saving more, investing more, and producing more.
Henry Hazlitt.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
No respite for
fragile ecosystems as late-summer heatwave pummels France
August 23, 2023
A
protracted heatwave crawling across much of Europe has brought scorching
temperatures to France this week, dealing a further blow to ecosystems already
weakened by drought – while also putting human health at risk.
French
authorities placed large swaths of southern France on
the highest heat warning level – a “red alert” – on Wednesday as temperatures shot
past 40°Celsius (104°F), shattering seasonal records.
France
as a whole experienced its hottest day ever recorded in the
period after August 15 on Monday, according to the national weather
service Météo France, which described the current heatwave as
“intense, long-lasting” and occurring “particularly late in the season”.
Since
1947, only six heatwaves have been recorded in France after the August 15 mark,
all of them this century.
“While
heatwaves are not exceptional, what is surprising is that they should happen so
late,” said climatologist Pascal Yiou, saying it was likely a
consequence of climate change.
“You
would normally get these types of temperatures between July 15 and
August 15 – not after that,” he added.
Threat to forests, vines and crops
The latest heatwave is a new blow to fragile ecosystems across
Europe, coming on the heels of a summer marked by widespread drought and
devastating wildfires in Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain.
While France has experienced relatively few forest
fires this summer compared to last year, experts have flagged a heightened risk
in the coming days, particularly in the country’s south.
“These high temperatures come at the end of a cycle,
when trees are already weakened by the stress of the summer season,” said Serge
Zaka, an expert in the ecological impact of climate change.
“This is normally the time when trees start getting a
little respite,” Zaka added. “Instead, they are drying up further, meaning they
become even more flammable.”
Météo France’s daily forest bulletin placed much of
southeast France at high risk of fire on Wednesday. Local authorities
have also closed most forest parks to the public as a precautionary
measure.
The unseasonal heat comes at a critical time for
farmers in areas famed for their wines and fruit production.
"As with the forests, this time of year usually
marks the end of a cycle for vines and other fruit trees such as apples, pears,
peaches and kiwis,” Zaka explained. “It's the time when the grape harvest and
picking begin. But the plants suffer if temperatures continue to
exceed 35°C.”
In places where temperatures are
reaching 42°C, such as the wine-growing Rhône Valley, crops are already showing
signs of weakness.
“Leaves exposed to the sun are turning brown and
fruit is burning,” Zaka said. “It's too early to draw any conclusions, but
there will certainly be yield losses.”
The heat could also affect sunflowers and maize, he
warned, while leading to a fall in the milk yield of dairy cows that are
particularly sensitive to high temperatures.
“What's most worrying is that this will be another
blow to crops and ecosystems after a catastrophic 2022 and two difficult years
before then,” Zaka said. “With each new extreme weather event, they emerge a
little weaker.”
More
No respite for fragile ecosystems as late-summer
heatwave pummels France (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Pfizer Documents Show COVID-19
Vaccines Contain Potentially Harmful ‘Modified’ RNA, not mRNA
Aug 23 2023
Although we’ve been told Pfizer’s
COVID-19 vaccine is manufactured with harmless messenger RNA (mRNA), the U.S. Food and
Drug Administration’s (FDA) product
label shows it contains artificially modified RNA—a key ingredient that is not
naturally occurring, poses a substantial risk to human health.
According to Pfizer and BioNTech’s
COVID-19 vaccine label in the FDA’s Fact Sheet for Healthcare Providers, each
Pfizer vaccine dose for children ages 5 through 11 contains 10 micrograms (mcg)
of modRNA, while fully-approved Comirnaty authorized for use in individuals 12
years of age and older contains 30 mcg of modRNA.
Pfizer, on
its website, confirms its COVID-19 vaccine contains modRNA: “ModRNA stands
for nucleoside-modified messenger RNA and in the synthesis of the RNA used in
this vaccine platform, some nucleosides, which are important biological
molecules that constitute DNA and RNA, are replaced by modified nucleosides to
help enhance immune evasion and protein production.” The company says
modRNA instructs the cells to produce desired proteins.
Yet the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention (CDC) states on its website (pdf) that mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are “made of mRNA,”
or “messenger RNA.”
According to the agency, the mRNA
in COVID-19 vaccines such as Pfizer and Moderna is created in a laboratory and teaches cells how to
make harmless pieces of spike protein that trigger an
immune response inside the body. The mRNA from mRNA-based vaccines is broken
down within days after vaccination and eliminated from the body. In its
description of mRNA and how COVID-19 vaccines work, the CDC makes no
reference to modRNA or indicates that the RNA used in COVID-19 vaccines
has been modified.
Messenger RNA occurs naturally and
lives in our cells, and it does not last long enough to initiate an immune
response before being destroyed by the immune system—it is modRNA that is
synthetically created, according to Klaus Steger, a molecular biologist who headed
several gene technology laboratories, regularly applying RNA-based
technologies.
Unlike mRNA, modRNA modifies one
of four compounds in RNA that make it last longer in the body, less immunogenic
(reduced stimulation of the innate immune system), and more efficient at
producing a protein—in this case, the spike protein, Mr. Steger stated. Since
modRNA cannot target specific cells to make viral protein, it can attack
perfectly healthy cells and bypass protective barriers in the body, like
the blood-brain
barrier.
Injecting modRNA into the
body may lead to adverse events like strokes, cardiovascular
complications, pulmonary embolism, and the formation of
blood clots—many of which were disclosed in Pfizer’s documents (pdf) but were not attributed to its product.
“It is my opinion that, at a minimum, the intentional use of mRNA—an acronym well-known to stand for messenger RNA along with the endless statements about the vaccines being based on naturally occurring messenger RNA constitute misbranding in violation of a number of laws,” Ohio-based attorney Thomas Renz told The Epoch Times in an email.
“There is a legal and moral duty to provide informed consent, and to
misrepresent a drug that was intended to be a gene therapy as a vaccine
containing “natural messenger RNA” is an apparent violation of both of those
duties.”
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
World's largest floating offshore wind farm starts
full service, Norway's Equinor says
AUG. 23, 2023 / 12:44 PM
Aug. 23 (UPI) -- The
crown prince of Norway on Wednesday connected the cables to mark the inaugural
start of operations at the Hywind Tampen offshore wind farm, which energy
company Equinor said is the world's largest.
Some of the turbines started spinning from the floating, offshore Hywind Tampen
facility in the Norwegian waters of the North Sea last year, though the full
capacity was only realized in August. Haakon Magnus, the crown prince of
Norway, was joined Wednesday by the country's prime minister and other
dignitaries in connecting the cables that marked the formal start of operations
at the facility.
Used to help power the infrastructure at the
Gullfaks and Snorre oil and gas fields in the North Sea, Equinor said the wind
facility is expected to cut some 200,000 tons of carbon dioxide annually from
the North Sea producers.
"Today marks a new milestone," said Siri
Kindem, head of Equinor's renewables business in Norway. "With Hywind
Tampen, we have shown that we can plan, build and commission a large, floating
offshore wind farm in the North Sea."
The 11 turbines that make up the floating wind farm
combine for a peak capacity of 88 megawatts. That should cover about 35% of the
energy demand for the five offshore platforms in the North Sea.
Norway has one of the fastest-growing markets for
offshore wind and its economy is unique. It's a major oil and gas producer for
a region increasingly looking for non-Russian resources, but it also powers
most of its economy with renewable energy resources.
Last week, its government said that three energy
companies were awarded acreage in the North Sea to store carbon dioxide, a potent greenhouse gas. The nation's energy
regulator believes the North Sea has the potential to store more than 80
billion tons of CO2, which is the equivalent of 1,000 years worth of Norwegian
emissions.
Equinor said it took five years to bring Hywind Tampen
from concept to completion. About 60% of the support contracts were awarded to
Norwegian firms.
World's largest floating offshore wind farm starts
full service, Norway's Equinor says - UPI.com
Another weekend and a bank holiday
weekend in England and Wales. Soon
enough autumn follows summer and after that comes winter. For most of Europe
including the UK, winter 2022-2023 was mild and we got a lucky break from the
sky high energy prices brought about by NATOs’s proxy war on Russia in the
Ukraine. Will we be lucky twice in a row? One way or another, we are shortly
about to find out. Have a great weekend everyone.
Liberty not only means that the individual has both the opportunity and the burden of choice; it also means that he must bear the consequences of his actions. Liberty and responsibility are inseparable.
Friedrich August von Hayek.
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