Thursday, 24 August 2023

Party On. The Fed To Refill The Punch Bowl Tomorrow?

Baltic Dry Index. 1151 -43             Brent Crude 83.22

Spot Gold 1921                  US 2 Year Yield 4.95 -0.07

Central bank support for pandemic-hit economies looks to endure well past the recovery in output, leaving investors little option but to keep chasing a parabolic bull market until the fabled “punch bowl” is eventually removed.

Reuters February 19, 2021

In the stock casinos, the final bubble, bubbles on. We are all going to get filthy rich via Artificial Intelligence.  Some of us have operated on AI for years.

 

Asia markets rise as investors assess central bank decisions in South Korea and Indonesia

UPDATED WED, AUG 23 2023 10:23 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets rose ahead of central bank rate decisions from South Korea and Indonesia, although both central banks are expected to hold their benchmark policy rates unchanged at 3.5% and 5.75% respectively.

South Korea’s producer price index climbed 0.2% year-on-year, the 13th straight month that growth in the PPI has slowed.

Investors will also be assessing chipmaker’s Nvidia’s earnings that were released early Thursday. The company beat estimates for the fiscal second quarter and issued optimistic guidance for the current period.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was 0.46% up, while the Topix climbed 0.13% on Thursday.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 advanced 0.24%, while South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.85% and the Kosdaq was up 1.75%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index also rose 0.8%, while mainland Chinese markets were also up, with the CSI 300 gaining 0.43%.

On Wednesday, in the U.S., all three major indexes gained ground, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing 0.5% up.

The S&P 500 gained 1.1% and recorded its best daily performance since June 30, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.6%, for its third straight day of gains.

Asia markets rise as investors assess central bank decisions in South Korea and Indonesia (cnbc.com)

Asian semiconductor stocks surge after Nvidia posts stellar second-quarter results

Semiconductor-related stocks in Asia surged after chipmaker Nvidia posted second-quarter results that beat estimates and issued optimistic guidance for the current period.

Most notably, Nvidia’s performance was driven by its data center business, which includes the A100 and H100 AI chips that are needed to build and run artificial intelligence applications like ChatGPT.

Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp, which manufactures all of Nvidia’s advanced AI chips, climbed as much as 1.81% on Thursday, while counterpart Samsung Electronics gained as much as 2.24%.

In an Aug. 21 note, Morgan Stanley analysts estimated that TSMC will generate 6% of revenue from AI-related semiconductors in 2023.

The team also expects Nvidia to see a 50% compounded annual growth rate in the segment for the next five years, adding that it views the company’s outlook guidance “as a near-term share price catalyst [for TSMC].”

Other stocks in the broader semiconductor sector also rose with South Korean memory chip maker SK Hynix surging as high as 6.29% above its last close.

Despite reports back in June that the U.S. was weighing export restrictions on Nvidia’s chips to China, Chinese semiconductor stocks also were up on Thursday, with Hua Hong Semiconductor advancing 2% and SMIC gaining 1.96%.

Asian semiconductor stocks surge after Nvidia earnings (cnbc.com)

Oil down on weak economic data, US Federal Reserve chief's speech in spotlight

NEW DELHI, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Oil prices eased in early trade on Thursday amid disappointing economic data from key economies and as investors await a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday for cues on interest rates.

Brent crude fell 26 cents, or 0.3%, to $82.95 a barrel by 0359 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $78.59 a barrel.

Manufacturing data from a host of purchasing managers' index (PMI) surveys on Wednesday painted a grim picture of the health of economies across the globe, raising demand concerns, analysts said.

Japan reported shrinking factory activity for a third straight month in August. Euro zone business activity also declined more than expected, particularly in Germany. Britain's economy looked set to shrink in the current quarter, in danger of falling into recession.

 

U.S. business activity approached the stagnation point in August, with growth at its weakest since February.

 

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials and policymakers from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan head to Jackson Hole where higher-for-longer interest rate talk may dominate despite a dip in inflationary pressures.

More

Oil down on weak economic data, US Federal Reserve chief's speech in spotlight | Reuters

In other Asian news, nothing good. President Xi cuts a speech. China’s deflation is likely to spill out into the rest of the world. Japan starts dumping tons of “safe” nuclear water into the Pacific Ocean. Stock up on canned tuna and salmon now?


Rumours swirl after Xi Jinping unexpectedly pulls out of summit speech

August 23, 2023

Chinese President Xi Jinping unexpectedly pulled out of delivering a speech at the BRICS summit in South Africa - leading to speculation he might be unwell.

The Chinese leader was in Johannesburg for the business forum but asked his commerce minister Wang Wentao to deliver the remarks instead.

The unusual move has sparked speculation that something was "amiss" but it is unlikely the Chinese government will provide an explanation.

The president's speech brought an air of confrontation to the summit in Johannesburg.

In a thinly-veiled swipe at the United States, Mr Wang said "some country, obsessed with maintaining its hegemony, has gone out of its way to cripple the emerging markets and developing countries".

"Whoever is developing fast becomes its target of containment. Whoever is catching up, becomes its target of obstructions."

The remarks are another development in the growing friction between the US and China - with Mr Xi having earlier blamed the West for the difficulties faced by his country's economy.

Mr Xi had met with South African president Cyril Ramaphosa on Tuesday before he pulled out of delivering his speech.

Bill Bishop, author of Sinocism, a popular newsletter about Chinese affairs, highlighted how there had already been a long period this month with Mr Xi not making any public appearances.

----The China Global South Project, a podcast exploring the country's involvement in Africa, wrote: "To say [Xi's absence] is extraordinary is an understatement as Chinese leaders never miss highly choreographed events like this."

Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific Programme at the German Marshall Fund, wondered if his absence meant something was "amiss".

James Palmer, deputy editor of Foreign Policy magazine, wrote: "The odds are very heavily that Xi Jinping just skipped that speech because he's sick."

The BRICS group of countries is made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

More

Rumours swirl after Xi Jinping unexpectedly pulls out of summit speech (msn.com)

China’s deflation could spill over into a global concern, economists say

China’s economic challenges have given rise to deflationary pressures that present a global concern and are likely to accelerate in the coming quarters, according to economists.

Beijing’s deteriorating economic fundamentals have become starkly apparent in recent months, with July’s data broadly missing expectations and the National Bureau of Statistics suspending its publication of youth unemployment figures as numbers soared to record highs.

Credit data for July also showed a slump in borrowing demand from businesses and households and problems have persisted in the country’s massive real estate sector, with once-healthy developer Country Garden on the brink of default and heavily indebted property giant Evergrande Group filing for bankruptcy protection in the U.S. earlier this month.

China’s headline consumer price index fell 0.3% year-on-year in July to register deflation for the first time in more than two years, presenting an opposing problem to that faced by major economies in the West.

Though some of the headline weakness could be attributed to transitory factors such as lower energy and pork prices, core inflation has also been weighed down by falling prices in shelter and related categories due to the ailing property sector.

“Despite changing linkages between China and the global economy as Beijing tries to transition to a consumption-led growth model and trade tensions remain elevated with the West, China is still the world’s manufacturer,” said Pimco Economist and Managing Director Tiffany Wilding.

“As a result, Chinese economic weakness and falling prices (especially Chinese producer prices) are likely to spill over into global markets — near-term good news for the Western central banks’ fight against elevated inflation.”

---- Yet in a research note last week, Wilding and Pimco China Economist Carol Liao noted that domestic demand has since faltered and left China with idle capacity, while deleveraging in the property and local government financing sectors have deepened disinflationary pressures and hit domestic investment, leading to “broad-based excess capacity in manufacturing.”

“What’s more, the government’s reaction to these weakening fundamentals has been far from sufficient. Indeed, a government-led push to stimulate and stabilize growth through easy credit, especially to state-owned enterprises and for infrastructure investment, has not been enough to offset the drag from property market, as the flow of new credit to the economy has contracted over the past year,” the Pimco economists added.

China’s central bank on Friday ramped up measures to arrest a rapid depreciation in its currency on the back of the bleak round of data and fading consumer confidence, but the market seemingly remained unconvinced that Beijing was doing enough to reverse the recent trends.

More

China's deflation could spill over into a global concern, economists say (cnbc.com)

Investors dump major China stocks in record sell-off - latest updates

August 23, 2023

Global investors have been offloading China’s flagship stocks in a record-selling streak, showing the nation’s industry leaders are falling out of favour amid concerns for the economy.

Foreign investors sold 6.2bn yuan (£676m) of Kweichow Moutai from August 7 to 18, making China’s largest spirits maker the most heavily sold stock via trading links with Hong Kong. 

It was followed by 4.7bn yuan of selling each for leading renewables stock LONGi Green Energy Technology and major lender China Merchants Bank.

Overseas funds have been fleeing the Chinese market, offloading the equivalent of £7.3bn in a twelve-day run of withdrawals to Tuesday, the longest since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 2016.

The exodus comes after China underwhelmed markets with its latest changes to interest rates earlier this week.

The world’s second-largest economy is dealing with a prolonged housing slump, making its CSI 300 Index among the worst global performers this month with a 7pc loss. It is now trading near the lowest since November.

Investors dump major China stocks in record sell-off - latest updates (msn.com)


Japan expects big hit from Hong Kong ban on most of its seafood

By Yoshifumi Takemoto and Katya Golubkova 

TOKYO, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Japan expects a "significant" impact from seafood import ban by Hong Kong and Macau due to the upcoming release of treated water from the Fukushima nuclear plant, an official from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF).

Japan is to start releasing more than 1 million metric tons of treated radioactive water from the destroyed Fukushima nuclear power plant into the sea on Thursday, more than a decade after the accident and amid harsh criticism from China.

China, the biggest importer of Japanese seafood, will take measures to protect its marine environment, food safety and public health, the foreign ministry said on Wednesday. Beijing has already banned imports from some Japanese regions.

In the latest set of measures, the Asian financial centre of Hong Kong and the gambling hub of Macau -- both special Chinese regions -- will ban aquatic product imports from 10 Japanese regions including Tokyo and Fukushima from Thursday.

 

The impact of the Hong Kong and Macau seafood bans could not be immediately calculated but would be 'significant', the official at MAFF said declining to be identified due to the ministry's policy.

China, also Japan's top scallop buyer and a major consumer of sea cucumbers, imported 87.1 billion yen ($600 million) worth of Japanese seafood last year, or a fifth of Japan's total seafood exports, according to the MAFF data.

Hong Kong, Japan's second biggest seafood market after mainland China, which the ministry calculates separately, bought 75.5 billion yen worth of seafood from Japan, the data shows. Japan seafood export data includes pearl exports.

More

Japan expects big hit from Hong Kong ban on most of its seafood | Reuters


Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Slide in euro zone service sector sharpens ECB's rates dilemma

By Jonathan Cable 

LONDON, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Euro zone business activity declined far more than thought in August with the slide in Germany particularly fast, while some inflationary pressures returned, surveys showed.

Wednesday's purchasing managers' indexes complicate matters for the European Central Bank which wants to control still rampant price rises without causing a recession.

It is expected to pause interest rate hikes in September, according to a narrow majority of economists polled by Reuters, despite elevated inflation. A further rise in rates by year-end remains on the cards, however, following the central bank's most aggressive policy tightening cycle.

 

"The continuing sharp drop in the PMI data will test the ECB's growth optimism," said Mark Wall, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank.

"We are expecting the ECB to pause in September, but it is not clear that inflation is where the ECB wants it yet. A pause should not be misinterpreted as the peak."

Activity in the bloc's dominant services industry declined for the first time this year and the contraction in manufacturing output continued, although there were some signs of a turnaround for factories.

HCOB's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the bloc, compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good barometer of overall economic health, dropped to 47.0 in August from July's 48.6, its lowest since November 2020.

That was well below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction and lower than all expectations in a Reuters poll which had predicted a slight dip to 48.5.

A chunk of that activity was driven by firms completing old orders, with the backlogs of work index falling to its lowest since June 2020 when the COVID pandemic was cementing its grip on the world.

Business activity in Germany, Europe's largest economy, contracted at the fastest pace for more than three years as a deepening downturn in manufacturing output was accompanied by a renewed contraction in services, an earlier survey showed.

 

Firms there remained pessimistic about the outlook as rising interest rates, customer uncertainty and high inflation continued to weigh on demand.

In France, the dominant services sector contracted further as falls in demand and new orders hinted there would be a contraction in the euro zone's second-biggest economy this quarter.

More

Slide in euro zone service sector sharpens ECB's rates dilemma | Reuters

PMIs: UK economy slips hard in August as recession warning lights flash

WEDNESDAY 23 AUGUST 2023 9:38 AM

The UK economy has contracted significantly this month according to a closely-watched index.

S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the UK economy came in at 47.9 – far below the 50 reading which indicates flat growth. The PMI assesses the health of an economy’s services and manufacturing sector.

 

Analysts had predicted a reading of 50.3 this month.

The all important services sector slipped from 51.5 last month, indicating expansion, to a seven month low of 48.7. Manufacturing meanwhile continued to fall, slumping to a 39-month low of 42.5.

The slowdown in growth will please some in the Bank of England, who are attempting to take the heat out of the UK economy and bring down persistently high inflation.

Many companies recoded a reluctance among clients to spend due to higher interest rates and stretched disposable incomes. Looking forward, service providers also flagged concerns that higher rates would continue to dent consumer spending.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said “the fight against inflation is carrying a heavy cost in terms of heightened recession risks.

“A renewed contraction of the economy already looks inevitable, as an increasingly severe manufacturing downturn is accompanied by a further faltering of the service sector’s spring revival. The survey is indicative of GDP declining by 0.2 per cent over the third quarter so far,” he said.

The survey also suggested that inflationary pressures continued to moderate in August, with input costs rising at the slowest pace for two and a half years.

However, businesses also reported that wage pressures were persistently strong.

The Bank is expected to announce at least one more interest rate hike at its next meeting in September, bringing the rate to 5.5 per cent.

Higher than expected wage growth however may encourage the Bank to push further north towards 6 per cent.

Those rate increases have placed a wet blanket over the economy with the cost of credit increasing.

The impact has so far been mostly seen in the housing market, where property prices have slipped significantly. August marked the worst summer month for five years, according to the latest data.

Williamson said “the August PMI data will add to speculation that rates could soon peak.”

UK economy slips hard in August as recession warning lights flash (cityam.com)

 

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Nothing new to report today.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

NASA discovers sunspot so big it can be seen from Mars that could release solar storms that knock out Earth's power grids next WEEK

NASA's Mars rover discovered a giant sunspot that will face Earth next week

Experts warn the size means intense solar storms that knock out power grids 

 21:26, 22 August 2023

NASA has identified a giant sunspot on the sun that will likely continue to grow and move across the surface until it faces Earth next week.

 

Experts have warned that the dark region, which is cooler than the surrounding area, could release energetic explosions capable of knocking out our planet's power grids.

The exact measurements of the sunspot are unknown, but NASA's Perseverance rover snapped images of the spot as it sits more than 152 million miles from the sun.

The rover observed the sunspot on August 17 through August 20 while exploring the Jezero Crater on the Red Planet.

'Because Mars is orbiting over the far side of the sun, Perseverance can see approaching sunspots more than a week before we do. Consider this your one-week warning: A big sunspot is coming,' Spaceweather shared in a blog post.

 

The images, which have been turned into an animation, show a dim sun hanging in the blackness of space with a blurry, dark formation moving across the surface.

'It takes a large sunspot to show up in these low-resolution images,' Spaceweather shared.

---- And sunspots appear dark because they are at least 4,000 degrees F cooler than the surrounding area.

However, the sun's outer atmosphere can reach more than one million degrees.

NASA shared stunning images of our giant star in February, showing the range of temperatures surrounding it.

Using the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR), the American space agency captured various X-rays emitted by the hottest material in our star's atmosphere.

High-energy X-rays were observed in only a few locations, while low-energy X-rays and ultraviolet light were detected across the ball of gas's entire face.

Scientists hope the new views will help them solve one of the sun's biggest mysteries: why its outer atmosphere reaches more than a million degrees - at least 100 times hotter than its surface.

NASA discovers sunspot so big it can be seen from Mars that could release solar storms that knock out Earth's power grids next WEEK | Daily Mail Online

“When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing,” he said in an interview with the FT in Japan.

The Citigroup chief executive told the Financial Times that the party would end at some point.

Citi CEO Chuck Prince, July 10, 2007.

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