Monday, 28 August 2023

Month-end Approaches. More China Flooding.

Baltic Dry Index. 1080 -30             Brent Crude 84.37

Spot Gold 1915                  US 2 Year Yield 5.03 +0.05

It is the highest impertinence and presumption… in kings and ministers, to pretend to watch over the economy of private people, and to restrain their expense... They are themselves always, and without any exception, the greatest spendthrifts in the society. Let them look well after their own expense, and they may safely trust private people with theirs. If their own extravagance does not ruin the state, that of their subjects never will.

Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, March 1776.

In the Asian stock casinos, a nervous rally as Evergrande shares crash as trading in the shares resume.

Given the vast disconnect between the global stock casinos and the harsh reality in a stumbling global economy, many global stocks have an Evergrande ending ahead in late 2023 and 2024.

But in most  stock casinos this week, it’s time yet again to dress up stocks and stock indexes for the all-important month-end bonuses.

Reality will come soon enough, but probably not this week.

However, with a hurricane heading towards Gulf of Mexico Florida and yet more massive flooding in China and another storm on the way, it’s probably a good idea to reduce stock casino risk into the month-end.

 

China and Hong Kong stocks lead gains in Asia markets; Evergrande shares plunge

UPDATED MON, AUG 28 2023 12:17 AM EDT

Mainland Chinese and Hong Kong stocks led gains in the region, as Asia-Pacific markets started the final trading week of August higher.

Chinese authorities trimmed the stamp duty on stock trades, effective Monday. The finance ministry said the move was meant to “invigorate the capital market and boost investor confidence.”

The benchmark CSI 300 surged 2.31%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index jumped 1.7%, led by consumer cyclicals and health-care stocks.

Shares of the world’s most indebted property developer China Evergrande Group tumbled 87% as trade resumed after 17 months.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.66%, while the Topix was up 1.35%. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.67%, while the Kosdaq advanced 0.93%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.57% as the country’s retail sales climbed 0.5% month on month, higher than the 0.3% expected by economists polled by Reuters.

On Friday, U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said that inflation remains “too high” and that the central bank is “prepared to raise rates further if appropriate.” All three major indexes rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.7%, the S&P 500 added about 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced about 0.9%. Both the S&P and Nasdaq snapped three-week losing streaks.

China and Hong Kong stocks lead gains in Asia; Evergrande shares plunge (cnbc.com)

Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

Shares of the world’s most indebted property developer China Evergrande Group plunged as much as 87% on its open on Monday, trading for the first time since March 21, 2022.

Shares fell to as low as 22 Hong Kong cents on Monday, compared to its last close at 1.65 Hong Kong dollars per share on March 18, 2022.

The resumption of trade comes as the company posted a loss of 39.25 billion yuan ($5.38 billion) for the six months ended June, a smaller loss compared to the 86.17 billion yuan loss the same period a year ago.

Revenue came in at 128.81 billion yuan, rising from 89.28 billion yuan in June 2022.

In July, the beleaguered company filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection in a U.S. court, which protects its U.S. assets from creditors while it works on a restructuring deal elsewhere.

In its filing to the Hong Kong exchange, Evergrande revealed it had total liabilities of 2.39 trillion yuan as of June this year, slightly lower than the 2.44 trillion yuan in the six months ended June 30, 2022.

As of June, Evergrande had total assets of 1.74 trillion yuan, including total cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of 13.4 billion yuan.

Evergrande defaulted in 2021 and announced an offshore debt restructuring program in March, having struggled to finish projects and repay suppliers and lenders.

Earlier this year, the company posted a combined loss of $81 billion in its long overdue earnings report.

Net losses for 2021 and 2022 were 476 billion yuan and 105.9 billion yuan, respectively, as a result of writedowns of properties, return of lands, losses on financial assets and financing costs, the company said.

China Evergrande shares plunge as trading resumes after 17 months (cnbc.com)

Wall St Week Ahead Historically stormy month of September may test US stock rally

By David Randall 

NEW YORK, Aug 25 (Reuters) - U.S. stock investors are bracing for a potentially volatile September as the market faces key economic data reports, a Federal Reserve meeting and worries over a possible government shutdown during a month of historically muted equity performance.

In Septembers since 1945, the S&P 500 has declined an average of 0.7%, the worst performance of any month, according to CFRA.

Recent weeks have been volatile. The S&P 500, which is up nearly 15% this year, has retreated more than 4% from its July 31 high as investors reacted to weakness in China's economy and a surge in Treasury yields that threatens to make equities less attractive.

 

The market is "coming up on a number of key inflection points at a time when the market is still on edge given the rise in rates," said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager and lead portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Manager Solutions.

The U.S. non-farm payrolls report kicks off the month next Friday. A hotter than expected employment reading for August would likely revive inflation concerns, while a much weaker number could fuel worries that the Fed’s interest rate hikes are starting to crack the economy, Janasiewicz said.

Consumer price data due on Sep. 13 needs to walk a similar tightrope to satisfy investors. The Fed’s monetary policy meeting on Sep. 20 stands as another potential source of volatility: Friday’s speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole fueled expectations of another rate increase this year, though a move in September was seen as less likely.

 

"It's looking like a time to sell the offense and buy the defense if you think that September is going to be a little more volatile than normal," said Sandy Villere, a portfolio manager at Villere & Co, who has been moving into healthcare stocks such as Pfizer and Abbott Laboratories.

Investors will also watch what happens with roughly $82 billion worth of student loans held by the government whose payments will begin in October. This could sap consumer spending ahead of the holiday shopping season.

Meanwhile, a feud over spending cuts between hardline and centrist Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives raises the risk that of a fourth federal government shutdown in a decade if lawmakers cannot reach a deal by Sep. 30, when funding runs out with the end of the current fiscal year.

 

A government shutdown stands to directly reduce U.S. economic growth by around 0.15 percentage points for each week it lasts, analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote this week.

More

Wall St Week Ahead Historically stormy month of September may test US stock rally | Reuters

Analysis-U.S. growth, a puzzle to policymakers, could pose global risks

August 27, 2023

JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth, still racing at a potentially inflationary pace as other key parts of the world slow, could pose global risks if it forces Federal Reserve officials to raise interest rates higher than currently expected.

The Fed's aggressive rate increases last year had the potential to stress the global financial system as the U.S. dollar soared, but the impact was muted by largely synchronized central bank rate hikes and other actions taken by monetary authorities to prevent widespread dollar funding problems for companies and offset the impact of weakening currencies.

Now Brazil, Chile and China have begun cutting interest rates, with others expected to follow, actions that international officials and central bankers at last week's Jackson Hole conference said are largely tuned to an expectation the Fed won't raise its rate more than an additional quarter percentage point.

While U.S. inflation has fallen and policymakers largely agree they are nearing the end of rate hikes, economic growth has remained unexpectedly strong, something Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted in remarks on Friday could potentially lead progress on inflation to stall and trigger a central bank response.

That sort of policy shock, at a moment of U.S. economic divergence with the rest of the world, could have significant ripple effects.

"If we get to a point where there is a need for ... doing more than what's already priced in, at some point markets might start getting nervous ... Then you see a big increase in the risk premia in different asset classes including emerging markets, including the rest of the world," said International Monetary Fund chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. "The risk of a financial tightening, a very sharp financial tightening, I think we cannot rule that out."

---- Fed policymakers will deliver a crucial update to their economic outlook at a Sept. 19-20 meeting, when they are expected to leave their policy rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%.

If inflation and labor market data continue showing an easing of price and wage pressures, the current forecast for just one more quarter-point increase may hold.

Yet Fed officials remain puzzled, and somewhat concerned, over conflicting signals in the incoming data.

More

Analysis-U.S. growth, a puzzle to policymakers, could pose global risks (msn.com)

Stock futures inch higher to kick off the final trading week of a rocky August: Live updates

UPDATED SUN, AUG 27 2023 7:02 PM EDT

Stock futures rose slightly to kick off the final trading week of August.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 50 points, or about 0.15%, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures added 0.14% and 0.7%, respectively.

Stocks are coming off a winning session following fresh remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 247.48 points, or 0.7%, on Friday, but finished the week 0.45% lower. The S&P 500 added about 0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced about 0.9%. Both the broad-based and tech-heavy index notched their first winning week in four, adding about 0.8% and 2.3%, respectively.

Speaking Friday at the annual central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell pointed to some signs of continued economic growth and strong consumer spending, but indicated that the central bank would “proceed carefully” with additional hikes.

“Although inflation has moved down from its peak — a welcome development — it remains too high,” Powell said in prepared remarks. “We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.”

As of Sunday evening, traders are pricing in a nearly 20% chance that the Fed will hike rates again at its upcoming September meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

“The intention of remaining restrictive still holds this year until the Fed is confident that inflation is starting to move closer to their target,” said Brian Price, head of Investment Management at Commonwealth Financial Network.

More

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Heavy rains, floods inundate China; Hunan province sees record rain, thousands evacuated

August 28, 20234:40 AM GMT+1

BEIJING, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Chinese weather forecasters on Monday warned several provinces to expect torrential rain and flash floods over the next two days as unrelenting downpours wreak havoc on the country.

More than three thousand people were evacuated in northwestern Hunan province over the weekend as heavy rain was unleashed on Sangzhi, Shimen and Yongshun counties, and Zhangjiajie City, according to state media.

Sangzhi recorded the heaviest rainfall this year, with maximum precipitation reaching 256 mm (10.07 inches) overnight from Saturday to Sunday, according to state broadcaster China Central Television.

It was the most extensive and widespread rain in Sangzhi since 1998, CCTV said.

China has been gripped by weeks of rains and floods amid an unusually wet summer. In late July, storms from Typhoon Dokusri caused record rains to hit China in over a decade, with Beijing experiencing its heaviest rainfall in 140 years.

China's government has called for more precautions against flooding as Typhoon Saola now makes it way across the South China Sea, with forecasts expecting it to land at Guangdong province as early as this Friday.

China's State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters and the Ministry of Emergency Management organised a video conference this past Saturday, warning that heavy rainfall in many parts of the country may cause geological disasters including mountain torrents and floods in some small and medium-sized rivers, state media People's Daily reported.

There is also uncertainty over Typhoon Saola's path, said China Meteorological Administration, but it will bring heavy rainfall in the coastal areas including Fujian and Zhejiang provinces from Wednesday to Friday.

Fujian has launched an emergency response to Saola, ordering fishing boats in some waters to return to harbours in the vicinity and all personnel on board to evacuate ashore by Wednesday noon, local media reported on Monday.

Heavy rains, floods inundate China; Hunan province sees record rain, thousands evacuated | Reuters

Australia concerned about China economy, monitoring 'very closely'

August 27, 2023

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Sunday the government was closely watching China amid "concerning" signs of economic weakness that could weigh on Australia's economy.

"I share the pretty substantial concerns that people have voiced about the Chinese economy," Chalmers told Sky News television.

"It is concerning to see the weakness, the softness, in the recent weeks and months in the Chinese economy because it has obvious implications for us here in Australia."

Recovery in China, the world's second-largest economy, has sputtered due to a worsening property slump, weak consumer spending and tumbling credit growth, prompting the authorities to slash interest and promise further support while analysts downgrade growth forecasts.

China is the top trading partner for raw-materials exporter Australia, with annual trade of A$285 billion, although Canberra has urged exporters to become less reliant on China amid diplomatic tensions.

"In China they're dealing with slower growth, they've got deflation, there are concerns in their property sector and to some extent in their banking sector, their exports have slowed as well, Chalmers said. "Our concerns for China in particular is something that we're monitoring very closely."

Australia's growth "will be substantially weaker" due to China's slowdown and Australian interest rates rises, he said.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged in August for a second straight month after raising them by 4 percentage points over 16 months to rein in inflation.

"The overall direction of travel is pretty clear - our economy is weakening," Chalmers said.

Australia's economy grew 0.2% in the first quarter, its slowest in 1-1/2 years as high prices and rising interest rates sapped consumer spending.

Australia concerned about China economy, monitoring 'very closely' (msn.com)

Bank deposits slip for second week in a row, lending rebounds, Fed data show

August 25, 2023

Invesitng.com -- Bank deposits fell for the second-straight week, while lending activity rebounded in the week ended Aug. 16, the latest data Friday from the Fed showed.

Deposits at large U.S. banks fell by $48.8 billion to $17.295 trillion from a week earlier, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Commercial bank lending rose by $26.1B to a seasonally adjusted $12.127T during the week, following a $5.2B drop in the prior week, the Fed data showed.

Residential real estate lending fell $14.9B, commercial real estate loans increased by $2.3B from a the week earlier, while consumer loans were up $0.5B from the prior week. 

Bank deposits slip for second week in a row, lending rebounds, Fed data show (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

A Startling Compilation: ‘Neither Safe Nor Effective’

A comprehensive look at the effects of the COVID vaccines

BY LINDA WIEGENFELD TIME AUGUST 22, 2023

A section of Dr. Colleen Huber’s introduction to her very important book, “Neither Safe Nor Effective 2nd Edition: The Evidence Against the COVID Vaccines,” is worth quoting before looking at the book as a whole:

“Dr. Peter McCullough, an American cardiologist, called the COVID vaccines, ‘the worst pharmaceutical development idea in the history of mankind.’”

“It often comes as a surprise to people that mRNA-type medical interventions and coronavirus vaccines had plenty of red flags through their history prior to December 2020. The ingredients used were already known to be toxic: Cationic lipids injure the nervous system, lungs and liver, as well as cell membranes throughout the body. Polyethylene glycol was never used for injections, due to safety concerns. mRNA had already been shown to change DNA. Previous attempts at coronavirus vaccines had all failed and killed the test animals. So inflicting the world’s population with a new, mostly untested vaccine for which its components already had so many safety warnings was the most widespread reckless experiment in human history.

 

Dr. Huber exposes the deaths, injuries, and the lack of desired results left in the wake of the COVID vaccines. She backs up her words with over 700 references to medical studies and government webpages.

A Little Background

Dr. Colleen Huber’s clinic in Tempe, Arizona, has provided cancer care by naturopathic physicians for its 16 years of existence. In 2014, Dr. Huber authored the largest and longest study in medical history on sugar intake in cancer patients.

Since the spring of 2020, Dr. Huber’s research interests have focused on the health hazards of masks and the COVID vaccines, as well as early treatments for COVID. As a medical expert in court cases related to vaccine safety concerns, she has, to prepare testimony for trials, compiled vital statistics, data from vaccine manufacturers, and other data from the United States and governments from around the world.

While parts of Dr. Huber’s book are quite technical and others unpleasant (to say the least), without access to a book with data such as this, the health of those receiving vaccines could be further jeopardized and lives lost. The documentation is complete and comprehensive, supporting Dr. Huber’s intention to expose the truth about the COVID vaccinations.

More

A Startling Compilation: ‘Neither Safe Nor Effective’ (theepochtimes.com)

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Graphene's Proton Permeability Could Lead to Cheaper Hydrogen

Aug 24 2023

Researchers from the Universities of Warwick and Manchester have managed to solve the long-standing mystery of why graphene is so much more permeable to protons than theory predicts.

A decade ago, researchers from The University of Manchester revealed that graphene is permeable to protons, the nuclei of hydrogen atoms.

Since theory postulated that it would take billions of years for a proton to pass through graphene's dense crystalline structure, the unexpected result sparked a debate in the community. This led to the speculation that protons enter the crystal lattice through pinholes rather than the lattice itself.

Now, a team from the University of Warwick, guided by Prof. Patrick Unwin, and The University of Manchester, directed by Dr. Marcelo Lozada-Hidalgo and Prof. Andre Geim, reveal ultra-high spatial resolution measurements of proton transport through graphene and demonstrate that perfect graphene crystals are permeable to protons. Protons are unexpectedly expedited around nanoscale wrinkles and ripples in the crystal.

The study was published in the journal Nature, and could offer a significant boost to the hydrogen economy.

Expensive catalysts and membranes, which can have a significant environmental impact, are currently used to generate and use hydrogen. These could be substituted with more sustainable 2D crystals, lowering carbon emissions and contributing to Net Zero through green hydrogen generation.

To quantify minute proton currents obtained from nanometer-sized areas, the researchers used a method called scanning electrochemical cell microscopy (SECCM). Using this technique, they could see the spatial distribution of proton currents through graphene membranes.

If proton transport occurred through holes, as some researchers hypothesized, currents would be concentrated in a few isolated locations. There were no isolated spots found, ruling out the presence of holes in the graphene membranes.

We were surprised to see absolutely no defects in the graphene crystals. Our results provide microscopic proof that graphene is intrinsically permeable to protons,” stated Dr. Segun Wahab and Dr. Enrico Daviddi, Leading Authors of the paper.

Proton currents were noticed to be accelerated around nanometre-sized wrinkles in the crystals, which was unexpected. The wrinkles effectively “stretch” the graphene lattice, offering a large space for protons to permeate through the pristine crystal lattice, according to the researchers. This observation now ties the experiment and theory together.

----These results showcase SECCM, developed in our lab, as a powerful technique to obtain microscopic insights into electrochemical interfaces, which opens up exciting possibilities for the design of next-generation membranes and separators involving protons,” Prof. Unwin notes.

The researchers are thrilled about the discovery's potential to enable new hydrogen-based technologies.

More

Graphene's Proton Permeability Could Lead to Cheaper Hydrogen (azonano.com)

The statesman who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals, would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it.

Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, March 1776. 

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