Baltic
Dry Index. 1080 -30 Brent Crude 84.37
Spot Gold 1915 US 2 Year Yield 5.03 +0.05
It is the
highest impertinence and presumption… in kings and ministers, to pretend to
watch over the economy of private people, and to restrain their expense... They
are themselves always, and without any exception, the greatest spendthrifts in
the society. Let them look well after their own expense, and they may safely
trust private people with theirs. If their own extravagance does not ruin the
state, that of their subjects never will.
Adam Smith, The
Wealth Of Nations, March 1776.
In the Asian stock casinos, a nervous rally as Evergrande shares crash as trading in the shares resume.
Given the vast disconnect between the global stock casinos and the harsh reality in a stumbling global economy, many global stocks have an Evergrande ending ahead in late 2023 and 2024.
But in most stock casinos this week, it’s time yet again to dress up stocks and stock indexes for the all-important month-end bonuses.
Reality will come soon enough, but probably not this week.
However, with a hurricane heading towards Gulf
of Mexico Florida and yet more massive flooding in China and another storm on
the way, it’s probably a good idea to reduce stock casino risk into the
month-end.
China and Hong
Kong stocks lead gains in Asia markets; Evergrande shares plunge
UPDATED MON, AUG 28 2023 12:17 AM
EDT
Mainland Chinese
and Hong Kong stocks led gains in the region, as Asia-Pacific markets started
the final trading week of August higher.
Chinese authorities
trimmed the stamp duty on stock trades, effective Monday. The finance ministry
said the move was meant to “invigorate the capital market and boost investor
confidence.”
The benchmark CSI 300 surged 2.31%, while Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng index jumped
1.7%, led by consumer cyclicals and health-care stocks.
Shares of the world’s most
indebted property developer China Evergrande
Group tumbled
87% as trade resumed after 17 months.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed
1.66%, while the Topix was up 1.35%. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.67%, while the
Kosdaq advanced 0.93%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained
0.57% as the country’s retail sales climbed 0.5% month on month, higher than
the 0.3% expected by economists polled by Reuters.
On Friday, U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said that inflation remains “too high” and that the central bank is “prepared to
raise rates further if appropriate.” All three major indexes rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.7%, the S&P 500 added about 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced about 0.9%. Both the S&P and
Nasdaq snapped three-week losing streaks.
China
and Hong Kong stocks lead gains in Asia; Evergrande shares plunge (cnbc.com)
Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as
trading resumes after 17 months
Shares of the world’s most indebted property
developer China Evergrande
Group plunged
as much as 87% on its open on Monday, trading for the first time since March
21, 2022.
Shares fell to as low as 22 Hong
Kong cents on Monday, compared to its last close at 1.65 Hong Kong dollars per
share on March 18, 2022.
The resumption of trade comes as the company posted a loss of 39.25
billion yuan ($5.38 billion) for the six months ended June, a smaller loss
compared to the 86.17 billion yuan loss the same period a year ago.
Revenue came in at 128.81 billion
yuan, rising from 89.28 billion yuan in June 2022.
In July, the beleaguered company filed
for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection in a U.S. court, which
protects its U.S. assets from creditors while it works on a restructuring deal
elsewhere.
In its filing to the Hong Kong exchange,
Evergrande revealed it had total liabilities of 2.39 trillion yuan as of June
this year, slightly lower than the 2.44 trillion yuan in the six months ended
June 30, 2022.
As of June, Evergrande had total
assets of 1.74 trillion yuan, including total cash, cash equivalents and
restricted cash of 13.4 billion yuan.
Evergrande defaulted in 2021 and
announced an offshore debt restructuring program in
March, having struggled to finish projects and repay suppliers and lenders.
Earlier this year, the company posted
a combined loss of $81 billion in its long overdue earnings
report.
Net losses for 2021 and 2022 were
476 billion yuan and 105.9 billion yuan, respectively, as a result of
writedowns of properties, return of lands, losses on financial assets and
financing costs, the company said.
China
Evergrande shares plunge as trading resumes after 17 months (cnbc.com)
Wall St Week Ahead
Historically stormy month of September may test US stock rally
By David Randall August 25, 202310:42 PM GMT+1
NEW YORK, Aug 25
(Reuters) - U.S. stock investors are bracing for a potentially volatile
September as the market faces key economic data reports, a Federal Reserve
meeting and worries over a possible government shutdown during a month of
historically muted equity performance.
In Septembers
since 1945, the S&P 500 has declined an average of 0.7%, the worst
performance of any month, according to CFRA.
Recent
weeks have been volatile. The S&P 500, which is up nearly 15% this year,
has retreated more than 4% from its July 31 high as investors reacted to
weakness in China's economy and a surge in Treasury yields that threatens
to make
equities less attractive.
The market is
"coming up on a number of key inflection points at a time when the market
is still on edge given the rise in rates," said Jack Janasiewicz,
portfolio manager and lead portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Manager
Solutions.
The U.S. non-farm
payrolls report kicks off the month next Friday. A hotter than expected
employment reading for August would likely revive inflation concerns, while a
much weaker number could fuel worries that the Fed’s interest rate hikes are
starting to crack the economy, Janasiewicz said.
Consumer
price data due on Sep. 13 needs to walk a similar tightrope to satisfy
investors. The Fed’s monetary policy meeting on Sep. 20 stands as another
potential source of volatility: Friday’s
speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in
Jackson Hole fueled expectations of another rate increase this year, though a
move in September was seen as less likely.
"It's
looking like a time to sell the offense and buy the defense if you think that
September is going to be a little more volatile than normal," said Sandy
Villere, a portfolio manager at Villere & Co, who has been moving into
healthcare stocks such as Pfizer and Abbott Laboratories.
Investors will
also watch what happens with roughly $82 billion worth of student loans held by
the government whose payments will begin in October. This could sap consumer
spending ahead of the holiday shopping season.
Meanwhile,
a feud
over spending cuts between hardline and
centrist Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives raises the risk that
of a fourth federal government shutdown in a decade if lawmakers cannot reach a
deal by Sep. 30, when funding runs out with the end of the current fiscal year.
A government
shutdown stands to directly reduce U.S. economic growth by around 0.15
percentage points for each week it lasts, analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote this
week.
More
Wall St Week Ahead Historically stormy month of
September may test US stock rally | Reuters
Analysis-U.S. growth,
a puzzle to policymakers, could pose global risks
August 27, 2023
JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth, still racing at a potentially inflationary pace as other key parts of the world slow, could pose global risks if it forces Federal Reserve officials to raise interest rates higher than currently expected.
The Fed's
aggressive rate increases last year had the potential to stress the global
financial system as the U.S. dollar soared, but the impact was muted by largely
synchronized central bank rate hikes and other actions taken by monetary
authorities to prevent widespread dollar funding problems for companies and
offset the impact of weakening currencies.
Now Brazil,
Chile and China have begun cutting interest rates, with others expected to
follow, actions that international officials and central bankers at last week's
Jackson Hole conference said are largely tuned to an expectation the Fed won't
raise its rate more than an additional quarter percentage point.
While U.S.
inflation has fallen and policymakers largely agree they are nearing the end of
rate hikes, economic growth has remained unexpectedly strong, something Fed
Chair Jerome Powell noted in remarks on Friday could potentially lead progress
on inflation to stall and trigger a central bank response.
That sort of
policy shock, at a moment of U.S. economic divergence with the rest of the
world, could have significant ripple effects.
"If we get to a point where there is a need for ... doing more than what's already priced in, at some point markets might start getting nervous ... Then you see a big increase in the risk premia in different asset classes including emerging markets, including the rest of the world," said International Monetary Fund chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. "The risk of a financial tightening, a very sharp financial tightening, I think we cannot rule that out."
---- Fed policymakers will
deliver a crucial update to their economic outlook at a Sept. 19-20 meeting,
when they are expected to leave their policy rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%.
If inflation
and labor market data continue showing an easing of price and wage pressures,
the current forecast for just one more quarter-point increase may hold.
Yet Fed
officials remain puzzled, and somewhat concerned, over conflicting signals in
the incoming data.
More
Analysis-U.S. growth, a puzzle to policymakers, could
pose global risks (msn.com)
Stock
futures inch higher to kick off the final trading week of a rocky August: Live
updates
UPDATED SUN, AUG 27 2023 7:02 PM
EDT
Stock futures rose slightly to kick off the
final trading week of August.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average rose
50 points, or about 0.15%, while S&P 500
futures and Nasdaq-100 futures added
0.14% and 0.7%, respectively.
Stocks are coming off a winning
session following fresh remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained
247.48 points, or 0.7%, on Friday, but finished the week 0.45% lower. The S&P 500 added
about 0.7%, while the Nasdaq
Composite advanced about 0.9%. Both the broad-based and
tech-heavy index notched their first winning week in four, adding about 0.8%
and 2.3%, respectively.
Speaking Friday at the annual
central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell pointed to some signs
of continued economic growth and strong consumer spending, but indicated that
the central bank would “proceed carefully” with additional hikes.
“Although inflation has moved
down from its peak — a welcome development — it remains too high,” Powell said in prepared remarks. “We are
prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a
restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably
down toward our objective.”
As of Sunday evening, traders are
pricing in a nearly 20% chance that the Fed will hike rates again at its
upcoming September meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
“The intention of remaining
restrictive still holds this year until the Fed is confident that inflation is
starting to move closer to their target,” said Brian Price, head of Investment
Management at Commonwealth Financial Network.
More
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Heavy rains, floods
inundate China; Hunan province sees record rain, thousands evacuated
August 28,
20234:40 AM GMT+1
BEIJING, Aug 28
(Reuters) - Chinese weather forecasters on Monday warned several provinces to
expect torrential rain and flash floods over the next two days as unrelenting
downpours wreak havoc on the country.
More than three
thousand people were evacuated in northwestern Hunan province over the weekend
as heavy rain was unleashed on Sangzhi, Shimen and Yongshun counties, and
Zhangjiajie City, according to state media.
Sangzhi recorded
the heaviest rainfall this year, with maximum precipitation reaching 256 mm
(10.07 inches) overnight from Saturday to Sunday, according to state
broadcaster China Central Television.
It was the most
extensive and widespread rain in Sangzhi since 1998, CCTV said.
China has been
gripped by weeks of rains and floods amid an unusually wet summer. In late
July, storms from Typhoon Dokusri caused record rains to hit China in over a
decade, with Beijing experiencing its heaviest rainfall in 140 years.
China's
government has called for more precautions against flooding as Typhoon Saola
now makes it way across the South China Sea, with forecasts expecting it to
land at Guangdong province as early as this Friday.
China's State
Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters and the Ministry of Emergency
Management organised a video conference this past Saturday, warning that heavy
rainfall in many parts of the country may cause geological disasters including
mountain torrents and floods in some small and medium-sized rivers, state media
People's Daily reported.
There is also
uncertainty over Typhoon Saola's path, said China Meteorological
Administration, but it will bring heavy rainfall in the coastal areas including
Fujian and Zhejiang provinces from Wednesday to Friday.
Fujian has launched an emergency response to Saola, ordering
fishing boats in some waters to return to harbours in the vicinity and all
personnel on board to evacuate ashore by Wednesday noon, local media reported
on Monday.
Heavy
rains, floods inundate China; Hunan province sees record rain, thousands
evacuated | Reuters
Australia concerned
about China economy, monitoring 'very closely'
August 27, 2023
SYDNEY
(Reuters) - Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Sunday the government was
closely watching China amid "concerning" signs of economic weakness
that could weigh on Australia's economy.
"I share
the pretty substantial concerns that people have voiced about the Chinese
economy," Chalmers told Sky News television.
"It is
concerning to see the weakness, the softness, in the recent weeks and months in
the Chinese economy because it has obvious implications for us here in
Australia."
Recovery in
China, the world's second-largest economy, has sputtered due to a worsening
property slump, weak consumer spending and tumbling credit growth, prompting
the authorities to slash interest and promise further support while analysts
downgrade growth forecasts.
China is the top trading partner for raw-materials exporter
Australia, with annual trade of A$285 billion, although Canberra has urged
exporters to become less reliant on China amid diplomatic tensions.
"In China
they're dealing with slower growth, they've got deflation, there are concerns
in their property sector and to some extent in their banking sector, their
exports have slowed as well, Chalmers said. "Our concerns for China in
particular is something that we're monitoring very closely."
Australia's
growth "will be substantially weaker" due to China's slowdown and
Australian interest rates rises, he said.
The Reserve
Bank of Australia left rates unchanged in August for a second straight month
after raising them by 4 percentage points over 16 months to rein in inflation.
"The
overall direction of travel is pretty clear - our economy is weakening,"
Chalmers said.
Australia's
economy grew 0.2% in the first quarter, its slowest in 1-1/2 years as high
prices and rising interest rates sapped consumer spending.
Australia concerned about China economy, monitoring
'very closely' (msn.com)
Bank deposits slip
for second week in a row, lending rebounds, Fed data show
August 25, 2023
Invesitng.com
-- Bank deposits fell for the second-straight week, while lending activity
rebounded in the week ended Aug. 16, the latest data Friday from the Fed
showed.
Deposits at
large U.S. banks fell by $48.8 billion to $17.295 trillion from a week earlier,
on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Commercial
bank lending rose by $26.1B to a seasonally adjusted $12.127T during the week,
following a $5.2B drop in the prior week, the Fed data showed.
Residential
real estate lending fell $14.9B, commercial real estate loans increased by
$2.3B from a the week earlier, while consumer loans were up $0.5B from the
prior week.
Bank deposits slip for second week in a row, lending
rebounds, Fed data show (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
A Startling
Compilation: ‘Neither Safe Nor Effective’
A comprehensive look at the
effects of the COVID vaccines
BY LINDA WIEGENFELD TIME AUGUST 22, 2023
A section of Dr. Colleen Huber’s introduction to
her very important book, “Neither Safe Nor Effective 2nd Edition: The
Evidence Against the COVID Vaccines,” is worth quoting before looking at the
book as a whole:
“Dr. Peter McCullough, an American cardiologist,
called the COVID vaccines, ‘the worst pharmaceutical development idea in the
history of mankind.’”
“It often comes as a surprise to people that
mRNA-type medical interventions and coronavirus vaccines had plenty of red
flags through their history prior to December 2020. The ingredients used were
already known to be toxic: Cationic lipids injure the nervous system, lungs and
liver, as well as cell membranes throughout the body. Polyethylene glycol was
never used for injections, due to safety concerns. mRNA had already been shown
to change DNA. Previous attempts at coronavirus vaccines had all failed and killed
the test animals. So inflicting the world’s population with a new, mostly
untested vaccine for which its components already had so many safety warnings
was the most widespread reckless experiment in human history.”
Dr. Huber exposes the deaths,
injuries, and the lack of desired results left in the wake of the COVID
vaccines. She backs up her words with over 700 references to medical studies
and government webpages.
A Little Background
Dr. Colleen Huber’s clinic in
Tempe, Arizona, has provided cancer care by naturopathic physicians for its 16
years of existence. In 2014, Dr. Huber authored the largest and longest study
in medical history on sugar intake in cancer patients.
Since the spring of 2020, Dr. Huber’s research
interests have focused on the health hazards of masks and the COVID vaccines,
as well as early treatments for COVID. As a medical expert in court cases
related to vaccine safety concerns, she has, to prepare testimony for trials,
compiled vital statistics, data from vaccine manufacturers, and other data from
the United States and governments from around the world.
While parts of Dr. Huber’s book are quite technical
and others unpleasant (to say the least), without access to a book with data
such as this, the health of those receiving vaccines could be further
jeopardized and lives lost. The documentation is complete and comprehensive,
supporting Dr. Huber’s intention to expose the truth about the COVID
vaccinations.
More
A Startling Compilation: ‘Neither Safe Nor Effective’
(theepochtimes.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene's Proton Permeability Could Lead to Cheaper
Hydrogen
Aug 24 2023
Researchers from the Universities of Warwick and
Manchester have managed to solve the long-standing mystery of why graphene is
so much more permeable to protons than theory predicts.
A decade ago,
researchers from The University of Manchester revealed that graphene is
permeable to protons, the nuclei of hydrogen atoms.
Since theory
postulated that it would take billions of years for a proton to pass through
graphene's dense crystalline structure, the unexpected result sparked a debate
in the community. This led to the speculation that protons enter the crystal
lattice through pinholes rather than the lattice itself.
Now, a team
from the University of Warwick, guided by Prof. Patrick Unwin, and The
University of Manchester, directed by Dr. Marcelo Lozada-Hidalgo and Prof.
Andre Geim, reveal ultra-high spatial resolution measurements of proton
transport through graphene and demonstrate that perfect graphene crystals are
permeable to protons. Protons are unexpectedly expedited around nanoscale
wrinkles and ripples in the crystal.
The study was
published in the journal Nature, and could offer a significant boost to the hydrogen economy.
Expensive
catalysts and membranes, which can have a significant environmental impact, are
currently used to generate and use hydrogen. These could be substituted with
more sustainable 2D crystals, lowering carbon emissions and contributing to Net
Zero through green hydrogen generation.
To quantify
minute proton currents obtained from nanometer-sized areas, the researchers
used a method called scanning electrochemical cell microscopy (SECCM). Using
this technique, they could see the spatial distribution of proton currents
through graphene membranes.
If proton
transport occurred through holes, as some researchers hypothesized, currents
would be concentrated in a few isolated locations. There were no isolated spots
found, ruling out the presence of holes in the graphene membranes.
“We were
surprised to see absolutely no defects in the graphene crystals. Our results
provide microscopic proof that graphene is intrinsically permeable to protons,”
stated Dr. Segun Wahab and Dr. Enrico Daviddi, Leading Authors of the
paper.
Proton
currents were noticed to be accelerated around nanometre-sized wrinkles in the
crystals, which was unexpected. The wrinkles effectively “stretch” the graphene
lattice, offering a large space for protons to permeate through the pristine
crystal lattice, according to the researchers. This observation now ties the
experiment and theory together.
----“These results showcase SECCM,
developed in our lab, as a powerful technique to obtain microscopic insights
into electrochemical interfaces, which opens up exciting possibilities for the
design of next-generation membranes and separators involving protons,”
Prof. Unwin notes.
The
researchers are thrilled about the discovery's potential to enable new
hydrogen-based technologies.
More
Graphene's Proton Permeability Could Lead to Cheaper
Hydrogen (azonano.com)
The statesman who should attempt to
direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals, would
not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an
authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to
no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in
the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to
exercise it.
Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, March 1776.
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