Baltic Dry Index. 1123 -27 Brent Crude 83.27
Spot Gold 1934 US 2 Year Yield 4.88 -0.04
You are as safe with me as you would be in the Bank of England.
Robert
Maxwell.
Ian Robert Maxwell MC (born Ján Ludvík Hyman
Binyamin Hoch; 10 June 1923 – 5 November 1991) was a Czechoslovak-born
British media proprietor, member of parliament (MP), suspected spy, and fraudster
It is the Bank of England’s turn to increase its key interest rate later today. While bad news for most Brits, it’s a big yawn for the rest of the world.
In the stock casinos, continued shock from the Fitch downgrade of Uncle Scam’s credit rating.
As per yesterday’s LIR, to this old dinosaur commodities trader, what took them so long? America’s governance is now dominated by a doddery, old age pensioner, fading elite, never-ending comic soap opera.
Later today, the latest episode gets to play
out in a Washington D.C. courtroom.
Asia markets fall as Wall Street sees sell-off
after U.S. credit downgrade
UPDATED WED, AUG 2 2023 11:40 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets extended their losses on
Thursday, tracking Wall Street’s sell-off after
ratings agency Fitch
downgraded the United States’ long-term credit rating from AAA
to AA+.
In Asia, investors will be
watching the Caixin private survey for China’s service sector activity in July.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped
0.23%, while mainland Chinese markets were also all lower. The Shanghai Composite was
down 0.36% and the Shenzhen Component shed
0.15%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 tumbled
1.03%, leading losses in the region, while the Topix also fell 0.9%.
South Korea’s Kospi fell
marginally, but the Kosdaq was up 0.33%. South Korean internet giant Kakao saw
its second quarter net profit fall by 44%, prompting a slide in its shares.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slid
0.46%, and the country will release its trade balance for June later.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes lost ground, with
the Nasdaq Composite tumbling 2.17% and seeing its worst day
since February. The S&P 500 pulled back 1.38%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.98%.
Asia
markets fall as Wall Street sees sell-off after U.S. credit downgrade (cnbc.com)
Stock futures are
little changed Wednesday night after U.S. downgrade spurs a sell-off: Live
updates
UPDATED WED, AUG 2 2023 8:09 PM
EDT
Stock futures were little changed Wednesday as
traders contended with Fitch’s recent downgrade of the United States’ long-term
rating.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 gained
0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added
0.1%. Dow Jones
Industrial Average futures,
meanwhile, climbed 49 points or 0.1%.
In after-hours action, shares of
chipmaker Qualcomm slipped
nearly 7% after the company missed
analysts’ expectations on fiscal third-quarter revenue and
guidance for the current period. DoorDash added
4.2% after beating expectations on revenue.
Wednesday’s
regular trading session saw a steep sell-off that weighed the
tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite down
by more than 2%. It marked the worst day since February for the index, as tech
stocks tumbled amid a spike in bond yields. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also
closed lower.
Fitch Ratings cut the United
States’ long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to AA+ from AAA late
Tuesday, citing “expected fiscal deterioration” over the next three years as
well as weakening governance. Previously, stocks were posting a strong string
of gains, led by growth names.
“Sometimes markets need to digest
a [torrent] of gains and this, coupled with a choppy seasonal backdrop, was
poised for a pullback,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL
Financial. “Fitch provided the rationale.”
Investors are turning their focus
on Thursday to tech bellwether Apple and
e-commerce giant Amazon,
as both will be posting results after the close. Thus far, nearly 67% of the
constituents in the S&P 500 have issued their latest quarterly reports,
with about 81% of those companies beating expectations, according to FactSet.
In the way of economic data,
traders will be gearing up for weekly initial jobless claims, as well as
durable goods orders. The main event will be Friday’s July payrolls report.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
The Fitch analyst behind the U.S. downgrade
breaks down the decision—and how the country can regain the top rating
It’s not a growing jobs market, strong U.S. dollar
or a resilient economy that will help the U.S. regain the top rating from
Fitch. According to the firm, it’s going to take a major step up in governance.
Fitch Ratings cut the United
States’ long-term foreign
currency issuer default rating to AA+ from AAA on Tuesday,
sending global stock markets down on Wednesday. The agency had placed the
country’s rating on negative watch in May, citing the debt ceiling issue.
“This is a steady deterioration we’ve seen in the
key metrics for the United States for a number of years. In 2007, general
government debt was less than 60% and now it’s 113%, so there has been a clear
deterioration,” Richard Francis, Fitch’s co-head of the Americas sovereign
ratings, said Wednesday on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “Furthermore,
we’re expecting fiscal deficits to rise over the next three years and we expect
debt to continue to rise over the next three years.”
Francis said that, in addition to
the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection, the rating agency has noted a “constant
brinkmanship” surrounding the debt ceiling among both Republicans and
Democrats. That has hindered the U.S. government from coming up with meaningful
solutions to deal with growing fiscal issues, particularly around entitlement
programs such as Social Security and Medicare, he said.
To regain the top rating, Francis said the rating
agency would watch for a long-term fiscal solution that addresses entitlement
programs and for a willingness to look at the revenue, as well as the spending
side, of such programs. He also said Fitch would look for a reduction of the
deficit, and for the government to tackle the debt ceiling issue by suspending
or getting rid of it.
“Given the high level of the debt,
given the increasing deficits that we’re expecting, and given the kind of
deterioration in governance and unwillingness to really tackle these issues, we
don’t think that’s consistent with the AAA anymore,” Francis said.
Many reactions,
from high-profile economists to the White House, have been critical or
dismissive of the downgrade given the resilience of the nation’s economy.
In response to pushback, Francis said that although the economy is very
important and could have an impact on the overall fiscal picture of the U.S.,
it will not be enough to tackle the governance issues.
More
The Fitch analyst behind the U.S. downgrade breaks down the decision (cnbc.com)
In other news, will food price inflation ever
end?
Russia strikes
Ukraine's Danube port, driving up global grain prices
August
2, 202311:57 PM GMT+1
KYIV, Aug 2
(Reuters) - Russia attacked Ukraine's main inland port across the Danube River
from Romania on Wednesday, sending global food prices higher as it ramped up
its use of force to prevent Ukraine from exporting grain.
The drone
attacks destroyed buildings in the port of Izmail and halted ships as they
prepared to arrive there to load with Ukrainian grain in defiance of a de-facto
blockade Russia reimposed in mid-July.
Ukrainian Deputy Prime
Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said the Russian attacks damaged almost 40,000 tons
of grain which had been destined for countries in Africa as well as China and
Israel.
---- Kubrakov,
writing on Facebook, said the Danube ports' infrastructure had been
"devastated".
"Ukrainian
grain is indispensable for the world and cannot be replaced by any other
country in the coming years," he wrote.
"The port
of Izmail suffered the most damage, including the terminal and infrastructure
of the Danube Shipping Company."
Russian state news agency RIA said the port and grain infrastructure hit was housing foreign mercenaries and military hardware. A naval ship repair yard was also targeted, it said.
---- Video released by Ukrainian authorities showed
firefighters on ladders battling a blaze high in a building covered with broken
windows. Several other large buildings were in ruins, and grain spilled out of
at least two wrecked silos.
There were no
reports of casualties, Odesa regional governor Oleh Kiper wrote in a post on
the Telegram messaging app.
Commercial
ship-tracking data showed dozens of international ships halting and dropping
anchor at the mouth of the Danube, many of them registered to arrive in Izmail
in an apparent attempt to breach Russia's blockade.
The port,
across the river from NATO-member Romania, is the main alternative route out of
Ukraine for grain exports, since Russia's blockade halted traffic at Ukraine's
Black Sea ports in mid-July.
More
Russia strikes Ukraine's Danube port, driving up global grain prices | Reuters
India’s rice
export ban to hurt millions globally. These countries will be the worst hit
PUBLISHED TUE, AUG 1 20239:56 PM
EDT
India’s rice export ban could ripple across global rice markets — and
millions are expected to be impacted, with Asian and African consumers set to
bear the biggest brunt.
India, the world’s largest rice exporter, banned
the exports of non-basmati white rice on Jul. 20, as the government
sought to tame surging domestic food prices and “ensure adequate domestic
availability at reasonable prices.”
The country accounts for more than 40% of the global rice trade.
“Malaysia appears to be the most vulnerable according to our analysis,”
Barclays said in a recent report, highlighting the country’s sizable reliance
on Indian rice.
“It imports a substantial portion of its rice supply, and India accounts for
a relatively large share of its rice imports,” the analysts wrote.
Singapore is likely to be affected as well, with the report showing that
India makes up around 30% of the city state’s rice imports.
However, Barclays noted that Singapore is largely dependent on imports of
food in general, not just rice. The country is currently in the midst of seeking exemptions from India’s ban.
Rice prices are currently hovering
at decade highs, with El
Nino putting further risks on global production in other major Asian
rice producers such as Thailand, Pakistan and Vietnam.
Barclays pointed out that Philippines would be the “most exposed to a rise
in global rice prices,” given how the weighting of rice is highest in the
country’s CPI basket. However, a large bulk of the Southeast Asian nation’s
rice imports comes from Vietnam.
Asia is not the only region hit by India’s rice export ban, many African and
Middle East nations are also vulnerable.
The markets highly exposed to India’s export restrictions are concentrated
in Sub-Saharan Africa and in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region,
said BMI, a Fitch Solutions research unit. The firm cited Djibouti, Liberia,
Qatar, the Gambia, and Kuwait as being the “most exposed.”
India’s withdrawal of non-basmati white rice, comes on the heels of last
September’s ban
on shipments of broken rice. That means up to 40% of India’s rice exports
are now offline, according to BMI forecasts.
----In October 2007, India imposed a ban on non-basmati exports, only to
temporarily lift the ban and impose it again in April 2008, sending prices
almost 30% higher to stand at the record high of $22.43 per hundredweight
(cwt).
Prices tripled in the span of six months, according to an agricultural
research company, the International Potato Center (CIP).
Samarendu Mohanty, Asian regional director at CIP, noted that India was not
a major player in global exports of non-basmati rice back then, and the current
ban has “a more far-reaching impact” than 16 years ago.
He added that the magnitude of the ban would depend on how other rice
importers and exporters react.
‘Possible mayhem’
in markets?
If major rice exporters like Vietnam and Cambodia impose their own form of
export restrictions, and significant importers like Indonesia and Malaysia
scramble to stockpile, the world will be looking at “possible mayhem in the
rice market,” Mohanty said.
He cautioned that it could even be worse than the aftermath in 2007.
More
India's rice export ban to impact millions in Asia, Africa, Middle East (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Bank of England caught between inflation fight and recession risk
August
2, 2023
LONDON
(Reuters) - The Bank of England, which looks set to raise interest rates again
on Thursday, must weigh up the need to fight an inflation rate running at more
than four times its target against the hit to the economy from 13 back-to-back
rate hikes so far.
Analysts and
investors are mostly expecting a quarter-point increase in Bank Rate, taking it
to a 15-year high of 5.25%. They will also be watching for the signals the BoE
sends about further increases in the coming months.
Governor
Andrew Bailey and his colleagues say the economic impact of their run of rate
hikes stretching back to late 2021 has yet to be felt fully. But they also say
they must quash an inflation rate that is the highest among major economies.
Below is a
summary of key data that the BoE will be watching before its announcement on
interest rates at 1100 GMT on Thursday which will be followed by a news
conference given by Bailey and other top officials at 1130 GMT.
INFLATION
THREAT
British
consumer price inflation fell by more than expected in June to 7.9% in annual
terms, down sharply from 8.7% in May. But it remained the highest among the
Group of Seven economies.
A measure of
underlying price growth - core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol
and tobacco prices - and price increases in the services sector - also eased
but remained close to the 31-year highs they hit in May.
HOUSING MARKET
The most
obvious impact of the increase in the BoE's Bank Rate from 0.1% in December
2021 to the current 5.0% has been in the housing market.
House prices
as measured by mortgage lenders Nationwide and Halifax have fallen by their
most in annual terms in more than a decade as interest rates on mortgages rise
quickly on expectations of further increases to borrowing costs.
The BoE says
much of the impact on the housing market from its rate hikes has yet to be felt
because most mortgages in Britain are short-term fixed-rate deals which protect
homeowners from swings in borrowing costs but are renewing at higher rates.
Of nearly 7
million fixed-rate mortgages, which account for 80% of residential home loan
deals, around 800,000 end in the second half of 2023 and a further 1.6 million
deals end in 2024.
INSOLVENCIES
There are
signs that companies, especially smaller ones, are struggling as borrowing
costs rise, the economy barely grows and the government no longer provides the
protections it did during the coronavirus pandemic.
Company
insolvencies in England and Wales were the highest since 2009 during the second
quarter of 2023.
More
Bank of England caught between inflation fight and
recession risk (msn.com)
Revealed: The 100
worst savings rates in Britain... So is YOUR account on our list of shame?
August 1, 2023
Today, Money Mail names and shames Britain’s 100 worst savings accounts.
The list makes grim reading, as many banks and building societies
continue to rip off savers with derisory interest rates as low as 0.1 per cent.
Not one of the easy-access accounts we name is paying more than 1.8 per
cent a year in interest.
Thirty-six accounts are paying 1 per cent or less — at a time when the
base rate is at 5 per cent and tipped to rise tomorrow by another 0.25
percentage points or more.
Many of the accounts are no longer available to new savers, so they are
passing under the radar without the scrutiny of savers and regulators.
This is allowing
banks and building societies to cut rates to the bone without courting unwanted
publicity.
Our damning
analysis comes after City regulator the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) this
week issued an action plan designed to force banks and building societies to
give savers a better deal.
On Monday, the
FCA said it would take ‘robust action’ against firms that can’t show they are
offering savers ‘fair’ value by passing on interest rate rises. This could take
the form of seven-figure fines.
Those
financial institutions paying the poorest savings rates have been given until
the end of the month to prove they intend to shape up.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Dogs Can Sometimes Detect
COVID-19 Better Than PCR Tests
Mira Miller Tue, August 1,
2023 at 7:58 PM GMT+1
Trained scent dogs might be able
to detect COVID-19 just as accurately as—or even better than—PCR tests,
according to a new review published in the Journal of Osteopathic
Medicine.
Researchers compared the results
of 29 peer-reviewed studies in which scent dogs were used to detect over 30,000
samples to those of PCR and rapid COVID-19 tests. The trained dogs were able to
identify asymptomatic COVID-19 cases, people who had long COVID, and sometimes
even new variants.
Tommy Dickey, PhD, MS, MA, a co-author of the review, said that the accuracy of
the trained scent dog method is in some cases superior to standard COVID-19
tests “with much less environment impact.”
“Our review has shown that it is
safe to utilize scent dogs to directly screen and test individuals who may be
infected with COVID-19,” Dickey told Verywell.
How Can Dogs Detect COVID-19?
Among the studies that were
reviewed, 23 were done in controlled clinical or laboratory settings, while six
were conducted in public settings such as the Helsinki Airport, a metro system
in Colombia, concerts in Germany, and a K-12 school in California, according to
Dickey.
Some studies used samples (mostly
breath, saliva) taken from individuals, while some used direct sniffing of
individuals by the dogs. Either PCR or antigen tests were used for
verification.
Labrador Retrievers and Belgian
Shepherds were by far the most frequently utilized dog breeds, and they were
often used in scent detection work for other purposes before the pandemic.
Beagles were also good at detecting COVID-19 as well.
COVID-detection dogs were also
faster than regular testing, giving results from only a few seconds to no more
than 15 minutes.
“In several instances, it turned
out that the standard tests were in error, and the dogs had correctly
identified COVID positive individuals,” Dickey said.
Previous studies have also shown
scent dogs’ ability to detect some cancers, diabetes, epilepsy, and Parkinson’s
disease.
Dogs have an amazing sense of
smell that can detect levels of chemicals far lower than the best sensors
humans have been able to develop, according to Brian Labus, PhD, MPH, REHS, an expert in infectious diseases and an assistant
professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the UNLV School of Public
Health.
They can smell COVID, or other
infectious agents, just like they can explosives or drugs, Labus said. As long
as the organisms have molecules that are unique, dogs could potentially be
trained to detect any number of pathogens.
More
Dogs Can Sometimes Detect COVID-19 Better Than PCR
Tests (yahoo.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the development
of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
Battery power: how China could
take charge of the electric vehicle market
The
country’s manufacturers are starting to dominate not just sales charts, but
also supply chains for crucial materials
If you bought an electric vehicle in the UK this year,
there’s a good chance it was an MG4. The fully electric hatchback, which
launched in 2022, sold 5,200 units in the first three months of this year, the
second-best selling EV behind Tesla’s Model Y.
With prices starting at about £27,000, it is also
substantially cheaper than the Tesla at £45,000. And while MG is one of
Britain’s most famous car brands – with a century of carmaking in Birmingham until MG Rover’s 2005
collapse – the secret to its
newfound success comes from China. Since 2007, the company has been owned, and the cars made, by
SAIC, China’s largest carmaker.
In the past few years, China has been churning out EVs of a quality and price
that is making western marques nervous. More than a quarter of new cars sold in
China last year were EVs or hybrids, compared with 13% globally. And of the
850,000 electric passenger cars imported to Europe in 2022, more than half came
from China.
Xi Jinping, China’s president, has pledged to take the
country to net zero emissions by 2060. In the EU, the target is 2050. For both,
decarbonising the streets with EVs will be crucial, and China is racing ahead.
By 2025, 13% of China’s fleet is predicted to be fully electric or hybrid,
compared with 6% globally.
After an astonishing rise, some analysts are wondering if
China’s EV industry can continue to accelerate, as the government winds down
state support and geopolitical tensions threaten to dampen global demand for
its cars.
Last year, Beijing ended a programme of
subsidies for EVs that had been in place for more than a decade.
Between 2010 and 2020, more than 152bn yuan (£16.5bn) was
ploughed into EV allowances. But rather than passing the higher costs on to
consumers, companies slashed prices, leading to a price war that drove the cost
of some models down by nearly 15% compared with 2022.
In July, Beijing ordered the firms to show “core
socialist values” and “not disrupt fair competition with abnormal pricing”. At
the behest of the industry ministry, executives from 16 companies including
Tesla and BYD – China’s leading brand and the world’s biggest EV producer –
signed a pledge.
But although the cash subsidies have has been wound down,
China still wants to back an industry that will be crucial to meeting its
climate targets – and which is expected to rake in £227bn this year. In June,
the government announced a package of tax breaks for the industry worth 520bn
yuan over four years.
More
The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing.
The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever
invented. Banking was conceived in iniquity and born in sin. Bankers own the
Earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create money, and
with the flick of the pen they will create enough money to buy it back again.
Take this great power away from them and all
great fortunes like mine will disappear, and they ought to disappear, for then
this would be a better and happier world to live in. But if you want to
continue to be slaves of the banks and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let
bankers continue to create money and control credit.”
He was a director of the Bank of England and chairman of the London, Midland and Scottish Railway.
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