Baltic Dry Index. 1237
-10 Brent
Crude 84.80
Spot Gold 1889 U S 2 Year Yield 4.92 -0.02
August 20, 1939 Zhukov starts his counter offensive in the Battles of Khalkhin Gol, defeating the Japanese Army, in what was really the start of World War Two.
In
the stock casinos, rising concern that the 2023 stock mania is over. With bad
times coming, smart money is slowly starting to move out of risky stocks into
bonds and money market funds.
Nasdaq
falls a fourth day in a row, notches longest weekly losing streak since
December: Live updates
UPDATED FRI, AUG 18 2023 4:41 PM EDT
Stocks closed Friday’s session with weekly
losses, as Wall Street’s August struggles continue.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added
25.83 points, and was roughly 0.07% higher to close at 34,500.66. The S&P 500 was
lower by 0.01%, finishing at 4,369.71. The Nasdaq Composite slipped
0.2%, ending the session at 13,290.78.
Keysight
Technologies shares
lost nearly 14% on the back of a disappointing earnings report. Deere and Estee Lauder also
fell about 5.3% and 3.3%, respectively, after announcing their earnings. Shares
of major tech companies,including Meta, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet continued
their decline for the week.
The Dow ended the week lower by 2.2%, its worst
since March. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 fell 2.1% and registered a third
straight week of losses, a streak that hasn’t happened since February. The
Nasdaq Composite shed about 2.6%, tumbling for a third consecutive losing week
— a first since December.
“I feel like the markets are rethinking their
optimism from July, where we had the soft landing narrative,” said Michelle
Cluver, senior portfolio strategist at Global X ETFs.
---- The 10-year U.S.
Treasury yield
on Thursday rose to its highest level since October 2022. The upward movement
came a day following the release of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes,
which suggested further interest rate hikes could be ahead as inflation
concerns remain.
However, yields eased from their
highs on Friday, with the rate on the 10-year Treasury roughly 5 basis points
lower at 4.25%.
Investors have key developments
looming in the
approaching week, including commentary from Federal Reserve Chair
Jerome Powell at the central bank’s Jackson Hole annual symposium. Traders will
also have an eye on chip powerhouse Nvidia as it issues earnings.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Stock
markets face a ‘perfect storm’ as high rates and China fears bite, analysts
warn
Stock markets were hit with a “perfect storm” this
week, as concerns over a Chinese economic slowdown and persistently high U.S.
interest rates rattled global sentiment.
Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng index closed Friday’s trade in bear market territory,
down 2.1% on the day and almost 21% from its January highs, after embattled
Chinese real estate giant Evergrande filed
for bankruptcy protection in a U.S. court. This led to broad declines for shares across
Asia-Pacific.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index followed
suit, down 1% on the day and more than 3% for the week, while U.S.
stock futures pointed to another lower open on Wall Street.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was
on track for its worst week since March, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were
both heading for a third consecutive week of losses.
The Dow closed Thursday’s trade
below the 50-day moving average — typically a bearish signal for investors —
for the first time since June 1.
“Whether it’s the brewing crisis in the Chinese
property market, the surge in U.S. bond yields on fears rates will stay higher
for longer or the big drop in U.K. retail sales, things are starting to look a
bit ugly out there,” AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould said by email.
More
Stock
markets face a 'perfect storm' as high rates and China fears bite, analysts
warn (cnbc.com)
Next, the real China. Rising economic and property collapse, sometimes including actual building and subway collapses. Deflation spreading.
Worse, before China stopped reporting the official figure on youth unemployment in June, it had hit a high of 21 percent. One in five unemployed. The real figure probably higher. So where will the new first time property buyers come from, and in what numbers to rescue and sustain a crisis hit property sector?
To misquote Earnest Hemmingway, “how did China’s property companies implode? Two ways. Gradually then suddenly.”
Below, why China’s property boom is never coming back. Tofu Dreg construction. Without a property boom, the wider Chinese economy starts to collapse. The property sector makes over 30 percent of China’s official GDP, but that undercounts the shadow banking sector that’s heavily dependent on China’s property sector.
Yuan
anyone? A flat in a Chinese built high rise?
China’s No.1 Real Estate Company in
Crisis, 900K Units Left to Rot & Trillions in Debt
Approx.
17 minutes
China’s No.1 Real Estate Company in Crisis, 900K Units
Left to Rot & Trillions in Debt - YouTube
Tofu Dreg Constructions Are
Life-Threatening!
Approx. 12 minutes.
Tofu
Dreg Constructions Are Life-Threatening! - YouTube
100m Tall Apartment Tower Wobbles,
Why Tofu Dreg Projects Are Everywhere in China?
Approx.
17 minutes.
100m Tall Apartment Tower Wobbles, Why Tofu Dreg Projects
Are Everywhere in China? - YouTube
Massive Pay
Cuts for Civil Servants in Shanghai, The CCP Is Looming Crisis
Approx. 17 minutes.
Massive Pay Cuts for Civil Servants in Shanghai, The
CCP Is Looming Crisis - YouTube
No Business! Food & Drink Sector Dying! OVER 500K
Restaurants Shut Down in 2023
Approx. 14 minutes.
No Business! Food & Drink Sector Dying! OVER 500K
Restaurants Shut Down in 2023 - YouTube
China’s Flood
Waters Wash Up a Nasty Truth
Approx.
8 minutes.
China’s Flood Waters Wash Up a Nasty Truth - YouTube
CCP’s Only
Solution to the Flood: Faking and Putting on a Show
Approx.
17 minutes.
CCP’s Only Solution to the Flood: Faking and Putting on a Show - YouTube
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Is
this time different, they ask below? Yes!!!. The China property boom has just
gone poof! Tofu Dreg exposes the CCP as Emperors with no clothes.
How much worse can China's economic slowdown get?
August 16, 202312:00 AM GMT+1
HONG KONG, Aug 15
(Reuters) - China's economic activity data for July, including retail sales,
industrial output and investment failed to match expectations, fuelling
concern over a deeper, longer-lasting slowdown in growth.
THE DEMISE OF CHINA'S GROWTH HAS BEEN MISTAKENLY FORECAST
BEFORE. IS THIS TIME DIFFERENT?
Activity data has been missing
forecasts since the beginning of the second quarter, with the weakness raising
worries that China's economy is coming closer to a crunch point.
It would not be for the first time.
Alarm bells over growth rang during the
global financial crisis in 2008-09 and during a capital outflow scare in 2015.
China came out of those with a shock boost to infrastructure investment and by
encouraging property market speculation, among other measures.
But infrastructure
upgrades have created too much debt, and the property bubble has already burst,
posing risks to financial stability.
Given China's debt-fuelled investment
in infrastructure and property has peaked, and as exports are slowing in line
with the global economy, China only has one other source of demand to tinker
with: household consumption.
In that sense, this slowdown is
different.
Whether China bounces back largely
depends on whether it can convince households to spend more and save less, and
whether they will do so to such an extent that consumer demand compensates for
weaknesses elsewhere in the economy.
WHY ARE ECONOMISTS FOCUSING ON HOUSEHOLD DEMAND?
Unlike consumers in the West, Chinese
people were left largely to fend for themselves during the COVID-19 pandemic
and the revenge spending spree that some economists expected after China
re-opened never took place.
But household
consumption, as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), was among the
lowest in the world even before COVID, with economists identifying it as a
key structural imbalance in an economy
relying too heavily on debt-fuelled investment.
Economists blame
weak domestic demand for subdued investment appetite in the private sector and
for China sliding into deflation in July. If it persists,
deflation could exacerbate the economic slowdown and deepen debt problems.
The imbalance between consumption and
investment is deeper than Japan's before it entered its "lost decade"
of stagnation in the 1990s.
HOW BAD CAN THE SLOWDOWN GET?
The July activity data has prompted
some economists to flag risks that China may struggle to meet its growth target
of about 5% for the year without more fiscal stimulus.
That is still much higher growth than
many other major economies will see, but for one that invests roughly 40% of
its GDP every year - about twice as much as the United States invests - it
remains a disappointing result.
There is also
uncertainty about China's appetite for large fiscal stimulus, given the high
levels of municipal debt.
Stress in the property market, which
accounts for about a quarter of economic activity, raises further concern about
the ability of policymakers to arrest the decline in growth.
Some economists warn
that investors will have to get used to much lower growth. A minority of them
even raise the prospect of Japan-like stagnation.
But other economists say many consumers
and small businesses may already feel economic pain as deep as during a
recession, given youth unemployment rates above 21% and deflationary pressures
weighing on profit margins.
More
How much worse can China's economic slowdown get? |
Reuters
Tofu-Dregs Subways Collapse in
China: Many Large Pits, Tens of Meters Deep, With Water Surging
Approx.
18 minutes.
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Due to today's LIR length, no update this weekend. Normal service, (probably,)
next weekend.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
CATL
claims its superfast EV battery charges at 400 km per 10 minutes
Loz
Blain August 17, 2023
The Chinese
company launched what it calls the "world's first 4C superfast charging
LFP battery," the Shenxing, at its 2023 product launch event. With a total
range over 700 km (435 miles), it's also designed for exceptional performance
in freezing conditions.
CATL is the
world's biggest EV battery manufacturer, selling packs, cells and technologies
to a range of global OEMs including BMW, Daimler, Honda, Tesla, Volkswagen and
many others, including most of China's biggest automakers.
----Sheer size and capacity
is one way to alleviate range anxiety, but the new Shenxing battery attacks
from the other direction, promising to charge up so quickly that a flat battery
will be no more of an impediment than a flashing fuel light.
To safely pump electrons in at that crazy 4C rate,
CATL has designed a "fully nano-crystallized lithium iron phosphate
cathode material to create a super electronic network, which facilitates the
extraction of lithium ions and the rapid response to charging signals."
"Fast ion ring" technology has been
deployed on the graphite electrodes, creating more metaphorical freeway lanes
and shortening travel distances for the lithium ions as they travel toward and
away from the active surfaces. And a new "superconducting electrolyte
formula" reduces viscosity, helping ions move charge more rapidly.
CATL says the battery will charge from 0-80% in 10
minutes, unlocking up to 400 km (249 miles) of driving range in a single, very
quick stint on a fast charger. That's at normal temperatures; take things down
below freezing to -10 °C (14 °F), and an 80% charge using built-in battery
heating will take you 30 minutes. The company says that low temperatures won't
affect the battery's ability to deliver its full power to the wheels if needed.
Weirdly, the company hasn't provided other critical
information as yet, like specific energy by weight, or the total capacity of
the pack – although to deliver that impressive 700-km range, it'll have to be
somewhere around 80-100 kWh, depending on the overall efficiency of the car and
pack.
CATL says it expects the Shenxing battery to be in
mass production by the end of 2023, but is yet to nominate which OEM's EVs
we're likely to see it appear in first.
CATL claims its superfast EV battery charges at 400 km
per 10 minutes (newatlas.com)
This weekend’s music
diversion. Johann Friedrich Fasch again,
this time trying out his considerable skills with a lute. Approx. 14 minutes.
Johann
Friedrich Fasch - Concerto per liuto in re minore FWV L:d 2
Johann
Friedrich Fasch - Concerto per liuto in re minore FWV L:d 2 - YouTube
This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 12
minutes.
There
Can Be Only One! || Praggnanandhaa vs Arjun Erigaisi || Fide World Cup (2023)
There Can Be Only One! || Praggnanandhaa vs Arjun
Erigaisi || Fide World Cup (2023) - YouTube
No maths update this
weekend. This weekend, the anniversary of the climax of Khalkhin Gol. Russian victory over Japan.
Battles of
Khalkhin Gol
----August:
Soviet counterattack
With war apparently imminent
in Europe, and to avoid fighting a two front war, Zhukov planned a major
offensive on 20 August 1939 to clear the Japanese from the Khalkhin Gol region
and to end the fighting.[41] Zhukov,
using a fleet of at least 4,000 trucks (IJA officers with hindsight disputed
this, saying he instead used 10,000 to 20,000 motor vehicles) transporting supplies
from the nearest base in Chita (600 km (370 mi) away)[7] assembled
a powerful armored force of three tank brigades (the 4th, 6th and 11th), and
two mechanized brigades (the 7th and 8th, which were armored car units with
attached infantry support). This force was allocated to the Soviet left and
right wings. The entire Soviet force consisted of three rifle divisions, two
tank divisions and two more tank brigades (in all, some 498 BT-5 and BT-7 tanks),[42] two
motorized infantry divisions, and over 550 fighters and bombers.[43] The
Mongolians committed two cavalry divisions.[44][45][46]
In comparison, at the point
of contact, the Kwantung Army had only the 23rd Infantry Division, which with
various attached forces was equivalent to two light infantry divisions. Its
headquarters had been at Hailar, over 150 km (93 mi) from the
fighting. Japanese intelligence, despite demonstrating an ability to track the
build-up of Zhukov's force, failed to precipitate an appropriate response from
below.[47] Thus,
when the Soviets finally did launch their offensive, Komatsubara was caught
off-guard.[47][48] To
test the Japanese defences prior to their main assault on 20 August, the
Soviets launched three aggressive probing assaults, one on 3 August and the
others on 7/8 August. All three were disastrously thrown back, with around
1,000 combined dead and several tanks knocked out on the Soviet side compared
to just 85 Japanese casualties.[49]
----Zhukov decided it was
time to break the stalemate.[43] At 05:45 on
20 August 1939, Soviet artillery and 557 aircraft[43] attacked
Japanese positions, the first fighter-bomber offensive in Soviet Air Force history.[53] Approximately
50,000 Soviet and Mongolian soldiers of the 57th
Special Corps attacked the
east bank of the Khalkhin Gol. Three infantry divisions and a tank brigade
crossed the river, supported by massed artillery and by the Soviet Air Force.
Once the Japanese were pinned down by the attack of Soviet center units, Soviet
armored units swept around the flanks and attacked the Japanese in the rear,
achieving a classic double envelopment. When the Soviet wings linked up at Nomonhan village on
25 August, they trapped the Japanese 23rd Infantry Division.[32][54][55] On
26 August, a Japanese counterattack to relieve the 23rd Division failed. On 27
August the 23rd Division attempted to break out of the encirclement but failed.
When the surrounded forces refused to surrender, they were again hit with
artillery and air attacks. By 31 August, Japanese forces on the Mongolian side
of the border were destroyed, leaving remnants of the 23rd Division on the
Manchurian side. The Soviets had achieved their objective.[56]
The Soviet Union and Japan
agreed to a cease-fire on 15 September; it took effect the following day at
1:10 pm.[32][57][58]
More
Battles of
Khalkhin Gol - Wikipedia
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