Baltic Dry Index. 1136 +08 Brent Crude 86.15
Spot Gold 1938 US 2 Year Yield 4.78 -0.12
Why did I take up stealing? To
live better, to own things I couldn't afford, to acquire this good taste that
you now enjoy and which I should be very reluctant to give up.
John Bull and Uncle Scam, with apologies to Cary Grant. To Catch A Thief.
In the stock casinos, more nervous pause. What will China’s and the USA’s inflation figures bring to the casinos this week?
Bullish for bond yields or bullish for stocks?
What happens to stocks if US inflation starts to rise again in H2 23?
Asia markets
largely fall as investors look ahead to China inflation data
UPDATED SUN, AUG 6 2023 10:10 PM
EDT
Asia-Pacific markets largely fell as investors
look ahead to China’s inflation figures and trade balance later this week.
China will release its trade
balance for Tuesday and inflation data on Wednesday, which will give clues to
the country’s recovery trajectory.
On Monday, Thailand releases its
inflation data for July and Indonesia reports its second quarter growth data.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 inched
down 0.11%, but the Topix was up 0.19%. Japan’s central bank will release its
summary of opinions for its July 28 meeting, where it adjusted its stance on
its yield curve control policy.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slid
0.26%, while South Korea’s Kospi was
up marginally. The Kosdaq, however, slumped 1.56%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell
marginally, while mainland Chinese markets were also all in negative territory.
The Shanghai Composite lost 0.73%, while the Shenzhen Component was 0.53% down.
On Friday in the U.S., the S&P 500 and
Nasdaq Composite slumped for
a fourth straight session, and notched their worst weeks since March, as
traders seemed to book profits following the latest corporate earnings releases
and U.S. jobs data.
The S&P 500 shed
0.53%, the Nasdaq Composite dipped
0.36%, and the Dow
Jones Industrial Average lost or 0.43%.
Asia markets to fall
as investors look ahead to China inflation data (cnbc.com)
Stock futures inch higher as Wall Street comes
off a losing week: Live updates
UPDATED SUN, AUG 6 2023 6:55 PM
EDT
Stock futures rose modestly Sunday night as
investors readied for a week with more corporate earnings and key inflation
readings.
Futures
tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added
35 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500
futures and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced
around 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.
The moves follow
a losing
week on Wall Street. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 slid
about 2.9% and 2.3%, respectively, marking their worst weeks since March. The Dow finished
the week about 1.1% lower.
Investors will
watch on Monday for corporate earnings from companies such as Lucid, Palantir, Beyond Meat and Paramount.
It’s the latest leg of what has broadly been considered a better-than-expected
season. Of the 84% of companies in the S&P 500 that have posted their
quarterly results, about four-fifths have exceeded Wall Street forecasts,
according to FactSet.
Later in the
week, investors will shift focus to the release of July consumer and producer
price index data. Both are closely watched given their connection to the path
of inflation and the health of the economy.
The indexes have
been watched with particular interest amid the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking
campaign as investors try to predict how the central bank will move policy
going forward. The readings follow last week’s employment data, which showed
there was less
job growth than economists expected in July.
“For the Fed,
this report has to be a relief, but likely doesn’t tilt the scales one way or
the other,” said PIMCO managing director Tiffany Wilding following the jobs
report on Friday. This week’s data “may be more convincing, and push the Fed to
be patient and watch how the economy evolves for another meeting.”
Inflation data
coming later this week could help Wall Street regain its footing.
The latest read on
the consumer price index — an inflation gauge that measures what consumers pay
for a many goods — is due out Thursday. The July producer price index — which
gauges what wholesalers pay for raw goods — is slated for Friday.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Asia shares on guard
for US, China inflation risks
By Wayne Cole August 7, 20233:37 AM GMT+1
SYDNEY, Aug 7
(Reuters) - Asian share markets were in a cautious mood on Monday after a mixed
U.S. jobs report sparked a rally in beaten-down bonds, but new hurdles lay
ahead in the shape of U.S. and Chinese inflation figures due later this week.
MSCI's broadest
index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> was a fraction
firmer in thin trade, after losing 2.3% last week.
Japan's
Nikkei (.N225) slipped 0.2%, but found support at its
July low. A summary of the last Bank of Japan meeting showed members felt
making yield policy more flexible would help extend the life of its super-easy
stimulus.
---- EUROSTOXX 50 futures dipped 0.3% and FTSE
futures 0.5%. Going the other way, S&P 500 futures added 0.4% and Nasdaq
futures 0.5%.
With
roughly 90% of S&P 500 earnings reported, results are 4% better than
consensus estimates with more than 79% of companies beating the Street. Results
due this week include Walt Disney (DIS.N) and
News Corp (NWSA.O).
Data on U.S.
consumer prices are forecast to show headline inflation picking up slightly to
an annual 3.3%, but the more important core rate is seen slowing to 4.7%.
Analysts at
Goldman Sachs see a downside risk to the numbers in part due to falling car
prices, an outcome that might help keep the bond rally alive and kicking.
In China, the
market is looking for further signs of deflation with annual consumer prices
seen down around 0.5%, and producer prices falling 4%.
Any
upside surprises would be a test for Treasuries which steepened markedly early
last week ahead of a flood of new borrowing. In the event, a mixed payrolls
report helped reverse much of the losses, particularly at the short
tend.
Futures imply
only a 12% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, and 24% for a
rise by year-end.
Michael Gapen,
an economist at BofA, cautioned the market was still expecting too much policy
easing next year given the recent run of resilient economic data.
"We now
expect a soft landing for the U.S. economy, not the mild recession we had
previously forecasted," wrote Gapen.
"While the
market implies between 120-160bps of Fed cuts in 2024 we look for only
75bps," he added.
More
Asia
shares on guard for US, China inflation risks | Reuters
In the real world, get ready for wage rise inflation. In a tight labour market, if not now, when?
A wider war?
As automakers' profits accelerate, UAW says it will seek
46% wage increase
AUG. 4, 2023 / 3:53 PM
Aug. 4 (UPI) -- UAW President Sean Fain indicated Thursday in a Facebook Live
video that autoworkers will be seeking substantial wage increases over the life
of a new labor contract with Big Three automakers.
According
to a page of the union's written demands obtained by the Detroit News, the UAW
is seeking a 46%
raise increase over four
years during its negotiations beginning this week with U.S. automakers.
Fain
said during the live-streamed event that the Big Three's second-quarter profits
this year were $3.2 billion at GM, $12.1 billion at Stellantis and $1.9 billion
at Ford.
He
said the companies combined have made $21 billion in profits in the first half
of 2023.
Fain said
CEOs at the Big Three Detroit auto companies have had pay raises that averaged
40% over the past four
years.
"Record
profits mean record contracts," Fain said in a Facebook
livestream. "As I go to the
table this week I will be giving the Big Three the most audacious and ambitious
set of proposals that they've seen in decades."
Fain said
the main UAW demands are:
- Elimination of tiers on wages and benefits
- Substantial wage increases
- Restore COLA (cost of living allowance)
- Defined pension for all workers
- Re-establish retiree medical benefits
More
As automakers' profits accelerate, UAW says it will
seek 46% wage increase - UPI.com
Ukraine Black Sea Drone Attacks Signal Rapidly Expanding
War
·
Freight rates set to ‘balloon,’
intelligence firm Kpler says
·
Russia exports most of its grain, 15-20%
of oil, via Black Sea
·
August 6, 2023 at 7:26 PM GMT+1
·
Updated on August 7, 2023 at 3:21
AM GMT+1
Subscription
required.
Ukraine
Black Sea Drone Attacks Signal Rapidly Expanding War - Bloomberg
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Former
Treasury Secretary Warns Inflation Could Resurge
8/5/2023 Updated 8/5/2023
Former
Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned that inflation could surge again as
wages continue to rise.
While
he believes that a soft landing for the American economy appears more likely
than it did earlier, his latest concern is that inflation will accelerate
again.
Mr.
Summers spoke to Bloomberg Television’s "Wall Street Week," right
before the Labor Department's July jobs report at the Aspen Economic Strategy
Group in Colorado.
The
data showed an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate and a
larger-than-expected gain in average hourly earnings.
There
was also a smaller increase in payrolls than predicted.
The
former Clinton White House official noted that wage trends were out of sync
with a 2 percent underlying inflation path.
“I
don’t think we can yet be confident that we’re not going to see a real
acceleration of inflation at some point down the road,” Mr. Summers told
Bloomberg. “That’s the thing that I’m focused on.
“If
you look at wage inflation, it was faster for the month than for the quarter,
faster for the quarter than for the year."
Although
hourly earnings last month were 4.4 percent higher than the same month a year
ago, after taking into account an annualized rate and comparing them with
June's figures, the figure is closer to 5 percent, he said.
After
reviewing wage and productivity trends, Mr. Summers told Bloomberg that the
data is “pointing to an underlying inflation rate in the 3.5 [percent] range —
and it may not be decelerating."
More
Former Treasury Secretary Warns Inflation Could
Resurge | The Epoch Times
Bank
of England risks overdoing it on interest rate rises, admits chief economist
August 5, 2023
The Bank of England risks raising
interest rates too far in its attempt to get inflation back under control, its
chief economist has admitted.
Huw Pill, chief economist at the
Bank, conceded “it is possible that we do too much” to rein in price rises as
analysts warned that over-tightening would push the country into an
“unnecessary recession”.
Speaking to businesses the
day after the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised interest rates by a quarter
point to 5.25pc, Mr Pill admitted
that rapid rate rises risked choking off economic growth.
This could push inflation
well below the Bank’s 2pc target as activity slows.
Bank officials also warned
that Britain risked being pushed into an economic crisis by renters who are
more vulnerable to running out of cash in the face of mounting bills.
Separate analysis by Threadneedle
Street warned many renters were facing “material financial
pressures” as landlords pass on higher mortgage costs. It said many renters had little or no savings, with
many holding “sizable amounts of unsecured debt” including on credit cards that
they could struggle to pay in the face of rising shopping bills and rents.
An analysis
published by the Bank on Friday said: “Renters could pose financial stability
risks if they cut spending sharply or default on their financial obligations.
“Higher
debt and lower savings would make renters more likely to face hard financial
choices in the future – like defaulting or cutting spending – which could
trigger or worsen a wider economic downturn.”
Economists fear that raising rates too far will wipe out growth
and push up unemployment more than is needed to get inflation back down to the
Bank of England’s 2pc target.
Julian
Jessop, at the Institute of Economic Affairs, said: “It is already clear there
is plenty of disinflation in the pipeline, so they have increased the risks of
tipping the economy into an unnecessary recession.
“By
the time you realise you have done too much, it is too late because the damage
has already been done.”
Inflation has fallen from a peak of 11.1pc last October to 7.9pc
in June. The Bank expects price rises to slow to just below 5pc by the
end of the year and to return to its 2pc target in 2025.
More
Bank of England risks overdoing it on interest rate rises, admits chief economist (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Covid-19 – latest: Eris variant sparks fears of new rise in cases as UK sees spike in infections
August 6, 2023
A new Covid
variant has emerged in the UK as cases have once again started to rise.
The Eris
variant, technically called EG.5.1, now makes up one in seven new COVID cases,
according to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).
Descended from
the Omicron variant, the UKHSA has been monitoring Eris’ prevalence due to
increasing cases internationally.
It was classified as a
variant in the UK on 31 July. According to World Health Organisation data, the
EG.5 strain was first documented in mid-February this year.
The surge in
Covid cases comes as estimated numbers jumped by almost 200,000 last month,
from 606,656 predicted cases on 4 July to 785,980 on 27 July, according to The
Zoe Health Study.
Eris is now
the second most prevalent variant in the UK, after Arcturus which makes up almost
half of all infection cases at 39.4 per cent, according to UKHSA.
Officials say
they are "closely" monitoring the situation as COVID case rates
continue to rise.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, something different. Tomorrow’s
nightmare.
How
long will YOUR solar panels last? Millions will soon face the cost of replacing
their eco-roof tiles... and most will be scrapped because there's only ONE
place to recycle them in UK
August 5, 2023
Tonnes of solar
panels could end up on the scrap heap unless the government acts now, experts
have warned.
There are around
25million solar panels in the UK and as 2.5billion globally.
Governments across
the world, the UK included, have been pushing for green alternatives to fossil
fuels in order to hit emission targets in a bid to tackle climate change.
But as the first
generation of solar panels are expected to die off in the coming years, experts
have warned that many could end up in landfill rather than recycled because of
a drastic lack of infrastructure.
Currently, there
is only one recycling plant in the whole of the UK that specialises in
recycling solar panels but this is a small operation in Scunthorpe.
However, the
company is currently only stockpiling the panels and when they have 'enough
stock' then they will 'invest in the equipment to recycle them', a spokesman
told Mail Online, adding that it was 'early days in the industry'.
The only place in
the entire world that will recycle solar panels on an industrial scale is the
first Return of Silicon Plant (ROSI) in France, which was due to open last
month.
At the moment, the number of
dead solar panels is only a small scale.
But the first
generation of solar panels is forecast to die within the next five or ten years
and according to Professor Chris Sansom at the University of Derby, by 2050 we
could have 300 million tonnes of scrap panels globally.
For comparison,
the world currently produces a similar amount of plastic waste each year.
Currently, almost
all PV panel waste goes into landfill and only very small numbers are recycled
by labour-intensive and expensive means as they must be taken apart by hand,
the professor added.
More
“The enemy was repelled. But victory was not won. The war
dragged on for a year and there was no decision. Gold grew scarce, and again
the Government was in despair.
“I easily relieved them. ‘Write,’ I said, ‘promises on paper to
be repaid in gold.’ They did as I advised—paying me (at my request) a trifle of
half a million for the advice. I handled the affair—on a merely nominal profit.
I punctually met for another year every note that was paid in. But too many
were presented, for the war seemed unending and entered a third year.
“Then did I conceive yet another stupendous thing. ‘Bid them,’
said I to the Sultan, ‘take the notes as money. Cease to repay. Write, not “I
will on delivery of this paper pay a piece of gold,” but, “this is a
piece of gold.”’
“He did as I told him. The next day the Vizier came to me with
the story of an insolent fellow to whom fifty such notes had been offered as
payment for a camel for the war and who had sent back, not a camel, but another
piece of paper on which was written ‘This is a camel.’
“‘Cut off his head!’ said I.
“It was done, and the warning sufficed. The paper was taken and
the war proceeded.
Hilaire Belloc. The Mercy of Allah.
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