Baltic Dry Index. 1919 -147 Brent Crude 87.13
Spot Gold 5210 Spot Silver 88.41
US 2 Year Yield 3.57 +0.01
US Federal Debt. 38.868 trillion
US GDP 31.225 trillion.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
Friedrich August von Hayek
Day twelve of the war to bring back global inflation. Time to assess early winners and losers.
The early big winners, oil and LNG producers outside of the Persian Gulf.
Iran, obviously, is an early big loser, but if the article below is accurate, maybe not as big a loser as we think.
But so is everyone who is an oil consumer in the global economy. Given the Persian Gulf’s importance in LNG production, aluminium and fertiliser production, other losers are consumers of LNG, aluminium and fertiliser.
Soaring jet fuel prices, diesel and petrol
prices make losers of airline companies, shipping companies, trucking companies
and eventually retailors as higher costs get passed along and consumers get
forced into cutting back on purchases.
Asia-Pacific markets trade higher as investors
weigh developments in the Middle East
Published Tue, Mar 10 2026 7:40 PM EDT
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.35%
in early trade.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.36%,
while the Topix added 1.22%. South Korea’s Kospi advanced 3.2%, while the
small-cap Kosdaq rose 1.39%.
Hong Kong Hang Seng index rose 0.43%,
while the CSI 300 added 0.19%.
Oil prices, which spiked to nearly $120 a
barrel Monday at the height of fear around the Iran conflict, dropped from
their height as traders believed a group
of countries would tap emergency crude reserves to mitigate disruption
caused by the conflict.
U.S. crude oil was last up 3.24% at $86.15
per barrel.
“The most immediate impact of an oil shock
is that it acts like a tax on the economy. When energy prices surge, households
spend more on fuel and utilities and less on everything else, which quietly
slows consumer demand across the broader economy,” said David Johnson, CEO of
financial services firm Vervent.
Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese
electric vehicle maker Nio surged more than 15% after the company reported a sharp improvement in fourth-quarter
results, helped by surging deliveries, better product mix and cost cuts.
Fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries jumped
71.7% from a year earlier to 124,807 units, while revenue rose 75.9% to
34,650.2 million yuan ($4,954.9 million) and vehicle margin improved to 18.1%
from 13.1% a year ago.
Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 fell slightly in
choppy trading as oil prices pulled back and traders kept an eye on the Iran
war.
The broad market index dropped 0.21% to
end at 6,781.48. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average dipped 34.29 points, or 0.07%, and closed at
47,706.51. The Nasdaq
Composite inched up 0.01% to settle at 22,697.10.
Earlier in the session, the Dow had
dropped as much as 296.57 points, or 0.6%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
were down 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively, at their lows.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng Index
Iran sends millions of oil barrels to China
through Strait of Hormuz even as war chokes the waterway
Published Tue, Mar 10 2026 11:49 PM EDT
Iran has continued to send large amounts
of crude oil via the Strait of Hormuz to China even as the war between
U.S.-Israel and Iran has jeopardized broader supplies through the critical
waterway.
Iran has sent at least 11.7 million
barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz since the war began on Feb.
28, all of which were headed to China, Samir Madani, co-founder of
TankerTrackers, told CNBC on Tuesday.
The firm monitors vessel movements with
satellite imagery, allowing it to capture vessels that would otherwise go
undetected if their tracking systems are switched off. Many vessels have “gone dark” after Tehran threatened to attack any
vessel attempting to pass through the waterway.
Shipping intelligence data provider Kpler
estimates around 12 million barrels of crude oil to have passed through the
strait since the war started. “Given that China has been the primary buyer of
Iranian crude in recent years, a significant share of these barrels could
ultimately head there,” said Nhway Khin Soe, crude analyst at Kpler, adding
that confirming the final destination for these vessels had become increasingly
challenging.
China’s National Energy Administration did
not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comments.
The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway
that has been critical to the transportation of about one-fifth
of the world’s oil and gas, has seen shipping traffic slow to a trickle
since the war started last month, with tankers largely avoiding the besieged
waterway.
Ten vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz came under
Tehran’s attack less than two weeks into the war, killing at least seven
seafarers onboard, according to the International Maritime Organization.
Oil tankers transiting through the
Strait “must
be very careful,” a spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign
Affairs said in an interview with CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Monday.
Three of the six tankers captured on
satellite imagery that have departed Iran since Feb. 28 were Iranian-flagged,
said Madani.
As oil prices have soared on supply
disruption fears, U.S. President Donald Trump told Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade
that ships stranded near the passageway need to “show some guts” and push through the channel.
“There’s nothing to be afraid of, they have no Navy, we sunk all their ships,”
Trump said.
Alternative exports outlet?
Kharg island terminal, located about 15
miles off the coast of mainland Iran, has long been the country’s primary oil
export facility, handling around
90% of its crude exports before tankers travel through the Strait of
Hormuz.
Now, Iran has also resumed loading tankers
at the Jask oil and gas terminal along the Gulf of Oman, south of the Strait of
Hormuz, which could add additional capacity to crude shipments.
An Iranian vessel was loading 2 million
barrels of crude oil — only the fifth such loading there in the past five
years, according to TankerTrackers.
The renewed activity at Jask signals that
Tehran is exploring alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, though the extent to
which it can serve as a viable route for shipments remains uncertain, said Soe.
The Jask oil facility — Iran’s only crude
export outlet on the Sea of Oman that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz entirely —
has rarely been used as it appears far less efficient.
Loading a single Very Large Crude Carrier,
a class of supertanker built for long-haul oil transport, can take up to 10
days, Madani said. “It has good domestic propaganda value, but not much in
terms of a logistical advantage.” For comparison, a VLCC takes about one or two
days to load in the Kharg Island.
More
Iran
sends millions of oil barrels to China through Strait of Hormuz even as war
chokes the waterway
Soaring fuel prices expected to cast long shadow
across US economy
Industries from farming to airlines face
long-term higher costs and will raise customer prices in response
11 March 2026
The US energy department has warned petrol
and diesel prices are unlikely to recede to prewar levels until mid-2027 at the
earliest, ratcheting up costs for industries from trucking and farming to
airlines and retailers.
Official figures released on Tuesday show
US petrol prices rose 19 per cent over the past two weeks to $3.50 a gallon as
the Middle East conflict throttled energy supplies, while
diesel jumped 28 per cent to $4.86 a gallon.
Petrol is not forecast to drop back below
its $2.94 per gallon pre-conflict level before the end of 2027, according to
the Energy Information Administration, the energy department’s statistics arm.
Diesel — the lifeblood of American industry — will not fall below the $3.81 per
gallon it sat at two weeks ago until the middle of next year.
The shift threatens to push up costs for
industry, which in turn will ratchet up prices for consumers with far-reaching
inflationary impacts.
It will also pile pressure on Donald
Trump, who campaigned for the presidency in 2024 on a platform to slash petrol
and energy costs. Prices at the pump are now higher than at any time during his
two terms in office.
“We’ve got a lot of costs moving their way
through the system,” said Tom Kloza, an independent oil analyst. “We’re looking
at some really scary inflation ratings — pervasive inflation throughout
the country.”
The rise in the price of refined fuel
products in the US comes as Iran’s threats to strike ships traversing the
Strait of Hormuz have all but halted maritime traffic in an artery through
which roughly a fifth of global oil supply flows.
That has prompted crude prices to surge,
with West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, rising from $61 a barrel before
the conflict started to a peak of almost $120 in intraday trading on Monday
before falling back. The US benchmark fell 11.9 per cent to $83.45 on Tuesday.
But the impact on fuel prices is set to
endure, with sweeping implications for American business and consumers.
The trucking industry, among the most
exposed to diesel price fluctuations, said companies would pass much of the
increase on to consumers.
“Higher diesel costs . . . remain one of
the trucking industry’s largest expenses,” said Bob Costello, chief economist
at the American Trucking Associations. “Luckily, most carriers have fuel
surcharges so they recoup much, although generally not all, of those expenses
from their customers.”
Brian Wanner, owner of trucking group
Peters Brothers, said there was “no way” his business could survive without the
surcharge.
“Margins are slim in this industry and
trucking has been struggling for the past three years, so if you’re not
protected it’s not good,” said Wanner, whose business uses more than 1mn
gallons of fuel a year.
For farmers, the rise in fuel costs comes
just as the industry prepares to plant corn and soyabeans — important inputs to
the food, livestock and biofuels industries.
“Farmers [are] facing increased volatility
in fertiliser and fuel prices as well as some reports of companies freezing
fertiliser sales,” said Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau
Federation.
In the US, diesel accounts for a
relatively small part of a farmer’s budget, said Gary Schnitkey, professor of
farm management at the University of Illinois, but it will feed through to
other costs given its use to run farm equipment and haul crops.
“So transportation costs and the costs of
other products will go up. It will cause another round of inflation in
input prices,” Schnitkey said.
More
Soaring fuel prices
expected to cast long shadow across US economy
As the Iran war upends energy flows, Russia is
emerging as the real winner
Published Tue, Mar 10 2026 5:17 AM EDT
Russia is shaping up to be a major
beneficiary of the war between U.S.-Israel and Iran, as higher oil prices and
temporary sanctions relief boost the value and volume of its crude exports,
analysts told CNBC.
The Middle East conflict has rattled
global energy markets, sending oil prices sharply higher amid fears of supply
disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy
corridors.
“Russia stands to gain revenue from higher
oil prices, especially as the U.S. has relaxed restrictions on selling Russian
crude to India,” said Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee.
Oil prices surged over $100 per barrel on
Monday as traders priced in the risk that conflict in the Gulf could disrupt
shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carries roughly a
fifth of the world’s oil supply.
Even as oil fell about 7% on Tuesday after
U.S. President Donald Trump signaled that the conflict with Iran could end
soon,
prices are still around 27% higher compared to before the war started.
For Russia, which remains one of the
world’s largest oil exporters despite Western sanctions following its invasion
of Ukraine, the price rally directly translates into stronger state revenues.
Henning Gloystein, managing director for
energy and resources at Eurasia Group, said Russia has “already hugely
benefited” from the crisis after Washington granted India a temporary waiver
allowing it to continue purchasing Russian crude.
“Cargoes have been sold around $90 per
barrel, so this is a large increase in price and sales volume for Russia,” he
said, compared to around $50 from before the Iran war.
More
Russia is emerging
as the real winner as Iran war upends energy flows
There’s another big reason why shipping companies
and insurers aren’t willing to risk the Strait of Hormuz
Published Mon, Mar 9 2026 6:08 PM EDT Updated
Mon, Mar 9 2026 6:33 PM EDT
Global insurers, brokers and shipping
companies are concerned about an environmental catastrophe if an oil tanker
sinks in the Persian Gulf.
It’s a massive risk in a region that
stretches from Kuwait to Qatar — an area of glittering high-rise buildings,
posh beachfront resorts and booming commercial centers. Its incredible wealth
and shift toward tourism is a dramatic change from the late 1980s, when a
tanker war between Iraq and Iran threatened the oil trade in the Persian Gulf.
What the region doesn’t have is the kind
of sophisticated oil clean-up industry and technology that is readily available
in the United States, according to a risk advisor who asked not to be named.
That expensive pollution risk has not yet
been addressed by the global insurance market, which doesn’t have the data to
calculate business disruption claims should a massive oil spill contaminate
destination beaches.
Pollution is offered under marine
insurance, which also includes coverage for ships’ hulls, machinery and cargo.
Expensive coverage
Hull, machinery and cargo coverage has
remained available to shipping companies, even after missiles began flying. But
it was expensive — 4-6 times more than the previous week, according to Marsh and Howden Group, two leading
global insurance brokers.
Still, sources tell CNBC that President
Trump’s commitment to insure tankers and get commerce moving helped reassure
the market that the U.S. government would provide appropriate supports.
But the Development Finance Corporation’s
rolling $20 billion reinsurance facility, for now, is only intended as a
backstop for hull, machinery and cargo — with no mention of essential pollution
coverage.
The DFC told CNBC Monday more details
would soon be available about the program.
But in the meantime, the pollution risk
and potential shutdown in business is considered the kind of unknowable or
uninsurable risk that the U.S. faced from terrorism in the aftermath of 9-11.
The government then stepped in to create TRIA (Terrorism Risk Insurance Act) in
2002 to help insurance carriers manage catastrophic terrorism risk.
Sources say that without that kind of
backstop for environmental risk a kind of quagmire will continue to clog
commerce in the Persian Gulf.
One big reason
ships and insurers are unwilling to risk Strait of Hormuz
In other news.
The U.S.-Iran war is the biggest oil supply
disruption in history
Published Mon, Mar 9 2026 9:43 AM EDT Updated
Mon, Mar 9 2026 11:35 AM EDT
The U.S. war against Iran has triggered
the largest oil supply disruption in history, more than double the previous
record set during the Middle East crisis of the 1950s, according to an analysis
by consulting firm Rapidan Energy.
About 20% of the world’s oil supply has
been disrupted for nine days now as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz
remains at a standstill. Crude prices have surged above $100 per barrel in
response.
The biggest disruption before the current
war was during the Suez Crisis of 1956 when Britain, France and Israel invaded
Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, the energy consulting firm told clients in a Sunday
note. In that crisis, about 10% of the world’s oil supply at the time was
disrupted.
The disruption triggered by the closure of
the Strait is nearly three times the size of the shock caused by the Arab oil
embargo of 1973, Rapidan analysts told clients. The Arab embargo disrupted
about 7% of global supplies.
The big difference between the supply
shock of the Iran war and past crises is the world has no spare oil capacity to
address the problem, the analysts said. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates hold the overwhelming majority of swing capacity but they have been
cut off from the global oil market by the Hormuz closure, the analysts said.
“The conflict has not only taken offline a
historically high share of global supply – it has simultaneously disrupted the
primary holders of spare capacity,” the Rapidan analysts said. “The result is a
market with no meaningful cushion. There is no swing producer positioned to
step in.”
This means that the global oil market will
need to balance by destroying demand through sharply rising oil prices, the
analysts said. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is “finite and insufficient
to fully offset” the supply bottled into the Persian Gulf due to the closure of
Hormuz, they said.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve currently
has 415 million barrels, about 58% of its total authorized capacity of 714
million barrels, according to the Department of
Energy.
A White House official told CNBC on Friday
that the Trump administration believes “the oil markets remain well supplied
and if we need to take additional action, we will do so.”
Member states of the International Energy
Agency will come under pressure to release their strategic stocks because this
is “the only remaining supply response option,” the Rapidan analysts said.
The U.S.-Iran war
is the biggest oil supply disruption in history
Trump promised to fill America’s oil reserves
‘right to the top.’ A year later, oil has exceeded $100 and they’re still less
than 60% full
Mon, March 9, 2026 at 5:00 PM GMT
In January 2025, the newly elected
President Donald Trump declared a “national energy emergency” during his inaugural
address.
His proposed remedy included a pledge to refill the country’s emergency
petroleum reserves.
“We will bring prices down, fill our
strategic reserves up again right to the top, and export American energy all
over the world,” Trump said.
The president didn’t set a deadline for
himself to do so—but in retrospect, an expedient one might have been useful. A
little over a year after his declaration, the U.S. is heavily involved in a
conflict in the Middle East that has left a hole in globally traded petroleum
supply and caused U.S. gas prices to jump. And the Strategic Petroleum Reserve,
a supply buffer designed to mitigate price shocks by stockpiling emergency
stores of crude oil, remains nowhere near full.
The reserve currently holds 416 million
barrels of crude oil, out of a maximum capacity of 714 million barrels—around
58%, according to the Department of Energy’s latest inventory report from Feb.
18. Since Trump began his second term, the reserve’s volume has only risen by
around 5%.
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
The
Iran war has put the brakes on the next Bank of England rate cut
Published
Mon, Mar 9 2026 11:02 AM EDT
Before
the war in Iran erupted, the Bank of England was widely predicted to be on
course to cut interest rates at its meeting next week.
But
the U.S. and Israel’s attack on major oil producer Iran, and the turmoil
engulfing the wider Middle East as the war escalates, have put the brakes on a
March rate cut, economists have predicted.
“BoE cuts
are possible in the first half of 2026, but March is off the table and April
requires a clear calming of geopolitical tensions,” Allan Monks, chief U.K.
economist at JPMorgan, said in emailed analysis.
“For
now we delay the next cut to April, but the risks are already shifting towards
a lengthier pause and larger growth impact,” he added.
Economists
were confident that the central bank’s policymaking committee, the MPC, would
lean toward a rate cut to stimulate the British economy amid lackluster growth,
a weakening jobs market, and a downward trend in the
inflation rate.
The
war has damaged oil and gas infrastructure and led to the effective closure of
the Strait of Hormuz maritime corridor, jeopardizing global supplies and
driving up energy prices.
The
meeting on March 19 is likely to be overshadowed by heightened uncertainty
around the trajectory of energy prices and their impact on the inflation and
growth outlook, Anna Titareva, European economist at UBS Investment Bank, said
on Monday, predicting policymakers would prefer “to wait for more clarity and
stay on hold” in March.
“With
the geopolitical situation remaining highly uncertain, we think that by the
time of the March meeting, the MPC will not be able to determine the nature of
the shock with sufficient certainty,” she said.
While
the BOE could look through “short-lived shocks,” larger and more persistent
shocks could require a monetary policy response, she said.
UBS forecast that the next rate cuts were now due in April and July, rather
than March and June. “That said, we see significant risks to our baseline
depending on the developments in the Middle East and implications for energy
prices,” Titareva said.
Energy
price shock
The
U.K. is highly sensitive to fluctuations in energy prices, given it imports
around 40% of its oil supplies and up to 60% of its natural gas, 2025
data shows,
despite having some dwindling oil and gas production of its own in the North
Sea.
This
makes energy price rises for consumers likely.
The
U.K.’s inflation had been high but had been falling amid expectations that
energy prices would fall in spring. The last inflation reading in January
showed the rate of price rises had cooled to 3% in January, down from 3.4% the
previous month.
That
had spurred hopes that the BOE’s forecast for inflation to fall toward the
bank’s 2% target was on track, and that a rate cut, from the current level of
3.75%, was warranted and just around the corner.
What
comes next largely depends on how long the war on Iran lasts and the degree to
which energy supplies are disrupted, economists say.
“The
current spike in energy prices leaves the BOE with a real dilemma,”
JPMorgan’s Monks noted.
“Still
restrictive rates and an ongoing deterioration in the jobs market creates
pressure for it to ease further.
“But
the Bank now faces another wave of inflation barring a significant and rapid
de-escalation in the Middle East,” he said, noting that the BOE had been
“scarred by the stickiness of U.K. inflation versus other economies, and one
vulnerability is the UK’s high dependence on natural gas.”
More
The Iran war puts
the brakes on next Bank of England rate cut
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Yet
another battery fire. Approx.. 4 minutes.
Vape Shop Fire Destroys Glasgow’s Historic Train Station
Vape Shop Fire Destroys Glasgow’s Historic Train Station - YouTube
Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
The chief evil is unlimited government, and nobody is qualified
to wield unlimited power.
Friedrich August von Hayek
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