Baltic
Dry Index. 2031 +17 Brent Crude 115.61
Spot Gold 4529 Spot Silver 70.24
US 2 Year Yield 3.88 -0.08
US Federal Debt. 39.052 trillion
US GDP 31.281 trillion.
“You can kill ten of my men for every one I kill of yours.”
Ho Chi Minh
In the insane Israeli-USA Trump Gulf War, escalation this week or climbdown?
In the global stock casinos, the “Trump Slump” is picking up pace. A month-end and quarter-end bear market now seems likely.
In the global bond markets, a roughly 30 trillion market at that, rising rates. How long before a financial crisis explodes?
In the roughly 3 trillion private-credit casinos, a 3 trillion crash is now likely.
One by one the wheels are starting to come off the global economy.
Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem
prevented from entering Church of Holy Sepulchre by Israel Police
Israel's Foreign Ministry and the
Prime Minister's Office announced that the police would be working on a
security plan to enable the church leaders to worship at the holy site in
upcoming days.
MARCH 29, 2026
16:00Updated: MARCH 29, 2026 18:04
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa,
the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, was prevented from entering the Church of the
Holy Sepulchre by the Israel Police, the Patriarchate announced on Sunday.
Pizzaballa, accompanied by the
official Guardian of the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, Father Francesco Ielpo, had been proceeding to the church
to celebrate Palm Sunday Mass when police stopped the pair and forced them to
turn back.
Traditional Palm Sunday celebrations
and annual procession into Jerusalem had been canceled due to ongoing security
concerns and restrictions imposed by Israel’s Home Front Command. However, the
Patriarchate stated that Pizzaballa and Ielpo had been making their way
"privately and without any characteristics of a procession or ceremonial
act" when the police had stopped them.
The Patriarchate also stated that it
was the first time in centuries that the heads of the Church were prevented
from celebrating the Palm Sunday Mass
in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre.
"This incident is a grave
precedent, and disregards the sensibilities of billions of people around the
world who, during this week, look to Jerusalem," the Patriarchate said.
"The Heads of the Churches have
acted with full responsibility and, since the outset of the war, have complied
with all imposed restrictions: public gatherings were cancelled, attendance was
prohibited, and arrangements were made to broadcast the celebrations to
hundreds of millions of faithful worldwide, who, during these days of Easter,
turn their eyes to Jerusalem and to the Church of the Holy Sepulchre."
The Patriarchate also labeled the
prevention of Pizzaballa's entry into the Church as a "manifestly
unreasonable and grossly disproportionate measure."
"This hasty and fundamentally
flawed decision, tainted by improper considerations, represents an extreme
departure from basic principles of reasonableness, freedom of worship, and
respect for the Status Quo," the Patriarchate concluded, expressing its
sorrow to Christians across the world who were expecting the Patriarch's prayer
within the Church.
More
Cardinal Pizzaballa blocked from Church of Holy Sepulchre on
Palm Sunday | The Jerusalem Post
A Rare Sunday Update. Depravity.
Unfit For Office.
In
markets news.
Global week ahead: Why emergency G7
meetings are not working
Published Sun, Mar 29 2026 1:00 AM
EDT
Another Monday, another emergency
meeting.
This time it’s between G7 finance
ministers, energy ministers and central bank governors, once again hosted by
France, but as a virtual session. It marks the fourth time since the start of
the war in Iran that the G7 has convened at a ministerial level.
The meeting fatigue is palpable.
The first virtual session of finance
ministers and central bank governors on March 9 resulted in a communiqué that
promised to “closely monitor the situation and developments in energy markets
and... to exchange information and co-ordinate.” The criticism over the
inaction was swift.
The following day, energy ministers also met virtually to take joint action on energy stockpiles alongside
the IEA to try and ease the crunch. In the short term is was effective, but was
also met with skepticism over the long-term impact.
Since that date, energy markets have swung wildly, including some of the biggest one-day moves for oil since
the war in Ukraine broke out in 2022, and volatility has spiked.
Last week, foreign ministers met in
the beautiful setting of the Vaux de Cernay Abbey, where they voiced their
concerns over the longevity of the war in Iran, but gave few direct actions.
The European Union’s foreign policy
chief, Kaja Kallas said: “We need an exit, not an escalation in this war. And
that means there has to be a diplomatic solution so that this region will come
out of it stronger and actually more peaceful. Therefore it can only be a
diplomatic solution, sit down and negotiate to have a way out.”
Germany’s Foreign Minister Johann
Wadepul complained, “it is not a lack of weapons, but a lack of communication”
that is complicating coordinated efforts on Iran. He told Deutschlandfunk that there are preparations for the U.S. and Iran to
meet directly in Pakistan “very soon.”
Iran war is a ‘catastrophe,’ G7 ministers warn — but there’s
little they can do to stop it
The upcoming G7 leaders’ summit in
June is also not without controversy. The French government has invited the
leaders of India, South Korea, Brazil and Kenya to join the summit in Evian on
June 15-17. This has caused upset with South Africa, which has been a regular
guest representing the African continent at the G7 level.
French officials have said the lack
of invitation is not due to pressure from the U.S., but South Africa believes the Trump
administration had threatened to boycott the meeting if Cyril Ramaphosa attended. China is also
not expected to attend the summit.
So why are these meetings between
the G7 yielding so few actionable outcomes?
The easy answer is to blame
President Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ approach for damaging multilateral
relations between the U.S. and its allies. This policy has allowed
protectionism to rear its angry head, while his direct criticisms of other
nations and their leaders have put many heads of state on the defensive.
But it doesn’t tell the full
picture. Questions around the influence of the G7 grew louder in 2022, after
the invasions of Ukraine by Russian forces. Moscow was expelled from the group,
and the G8 became the G7. And the war in Ukraine rages on. Disputes within
NATO, and pressure over funding from the Trump administration, have intensified
tensions that were already growing.
Political and economic pressure is
growing to find more meaningful steps to de-escalate and end both the wars in
Iran and Ukraine - but it seems increasingly unlikely that the G7 can be the
diplomatic vehicle to deliver that.
Economic data this week:
Monday: German inflation data
Tuesday: EU inflation data, UK GDP
data
Wednesday: EU Unemployment data
Thursday: N/A
Friday: U.S. non-farm payrolls data
Global week ahead: Why emergency G7 meetings are not working
South
Korea’s Kospi leads declines in Asia as Middle East war enters fifth week
Published
Sun, Mar 29 2026 7:31 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets fell sharply on Monday as the Middle East war entered its fifth week,
with the conflict escalating despite efforts aimed at finding a diplomatic
solution.
The
benchmark Kospi plunged
over 5%, while the small-cap Kosdaq was 3.97% lower.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell
3.97%, while the Topix lost 3.9%. Bank of Japan policymakers discussed the need
for further rate hikes at their March meeting, as rising oil prices linked to
the Middle East conflict add to inflation pressures. One member signaled that
tightening may need to be accelerated, according to a summary of opinions released Monday.
There
is a risk the BOJ might unintentionally fall behind the curve, one policymaker
noted, as second-round effects and a rise in underlying inflation stemming from
overseas developments are more likely to emerge.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was
1.46% lower.
Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng
index lost 1.52%, while the CSI 300 was down 0.77%.
Yemen’s
Houthi movement said
Saturday it had fired missiles at Israel, marking its first direct
involvement in the U.S.- and Israeli-led war against Iran.
In
a post on X, Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree said the group launched a barrage
of ballistic missiles at what it described as sensitive Israeli military sites,
in support of Iran and allied Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.
The
strike signals a further escalation in a conflict that began with U.S. and
Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets on Feb. 28.
Oil
prices were higher in early Asia trading hours. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were
up 2.58% at $102.19 per barrel.
Australia
will halve the fuel excise on petrol and diesel for three months to ease rising
costs driven by the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said at a press conference in
Canberra.
The
tax reduction is expected to lower prices at the pump by 26.3 Australian cents
per litre (18 cents), he added.
In
the U.S., futures tied to the Dow
Jones Industrial Average dropped 253 points, or 0.6%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.5%
each.
Last
Friday, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average tumbled and fell into correction territory. The
30-stock Dow fell 793.47 points, or 1.73%, to close at 45,166.64. The S&P 500 lost 1.67% and
ended the session at a seven-month low of 6,368.85. The Nasdaq Composite dropped
2.15% and settled at 20,948.36.
The
broad market index notched its fifth straight weekly decline, dropping 2.1% in
the period. The tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 3.2% week to date, while the blue-chip
Dow retreated 0.9% for the week.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng Index, oil
Oil
soars with Brent heading for record monthly surge as Trump reportedly eyes Iran
energy control
Published
Sun, Mar 29 2026 8:01 PM EDT
Oil
rose Monday as Yemen’s Houthis fired missiles at Israel and U.S. President
Donald Trump reportedly wants to seize Iran’s oil, deepening concerns over
escalating risks to Middle East energy flows.
May
futures for the Brent crude rose
over 3.2% to $116.12 per barrel during early Asia hours, with the international
benchmark heading for a record monthly jump, data from LSEG showed.
The
U.S. West Texas Intermediate
futures gained 3.4% to $102.96 per barrel.
In
an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday, Trump said his preferred
option in Iran would be to “take the oil,” likening it to earlier U.S. actions
in Venezuela where Washington effectively gained control over the country’s oil
sector after the capture of its leader Nicolás Maduro.
His
remarks come as fighting between U.S.-Israel forces and Iran has entered its
fifth week, with attacks spreading across the region, heightening risks to
energy infrastructure and driving a sharp rally in crude prices.
More
Oil
price: WTI, Brent as Yemen’s Houthis enter Israel-Iran war
In Israel-USA optional war news.
There Are Now Over 50,000 American
Troops in the Mideast
The arrival of 2,500 Marines and
another 2,500 sailors is keeping the number of American troops in the region at
roughly 10,000 more than usual.
March 29, 2026
The arrival of 2,500 Marines and
another 2,500 sailors is keeping the number of American troops in the Mideast
region at over 50,000 — roughly 10,000 more than usual — as President Trump
decides on his next step in his month-old war in Iran.
While it is still unclear just what
the Marines, from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, will be charged with,
U.S. officials say the president is weighing whether to try a larger attack,
like venturing to seize an island or other ground as part of Mr. Trump’s effort
to open the Strait of Hormuz.
The narrow waterway, through which
around 20 percent of the world’s oil usually traverses, has been largely closed
because of attacks by Iranian forces who are retaliating against the U.S. and
Israeli war on their country.
Usually there are around 40,000
American troops scattered around at bases and on ships at any time around the
region, including in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Qatar, the
United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. But as Mr. Trump has escalated the war in
Iran, that number has reached more than 50,000, according to a U.S. military
official.
The number of troops no longer
includes the 4,500 aboard the aircraft carrier U.S.S. Gerald Ford, however.
That ship has been hobbled by constant mishaps, including a fire that broke out
in the laundry. The Ford withdrew from the region on March 23 and sailed to
Crete. On Friday it arrived in Croatia. It remains unclear where it is headed
next.
More
The
U.S. Now Has Over 50,000 Troops in the Middle East - The New York Times
Trump reportedly wants to ‘take the
oil in Iran’ as Tehran targets water, power facilities in Kuwait
Published Sun, Mar 29 2026 8:56 PM
EDT
U.S. President Donald Trump said he
could “take the oil in Iran” and seize Iran’s export hub of Kharg Island, as
hostilities in the Middle East continue for a fifth week.
Trump told the Financial Times on Sunday that his
“preference would be to take the oil,” comparing it to the U.S. military
operation in Venezuela earlier this year where the U.S. effectively gained
control of the Latin American country’s oil industry, following the capture of
its leader Nicolas Maduro.
The Trump administration has weighed
sending ground forces to the Kharg Island, according to Reuters, with one of its sources warning that such an
operation would be “very risky.” Tehran has the ability to reach the island
with missiles and drones.
In the FT interview, Trump said that
“my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran but some stupid people back in
the U.S. say: ‘why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people.”
“Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe
we don’t. We have a lot of options,” Trump said. “It would also mean we had to
be there [in Kharg Island] for a while.”
The White House and the U.S. State
Department didn’t immediately respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.
Trump’s remarks come as the conflict
between U.S.-Israel and Iran entered its fifth week, with attacks expanding
across the region, raising risks to energy and infrastructure, and
sending crude oil prices
surging.
May futures for the Brent crude rose over 3.2%
to $116.12 per barrel during early Asia hours, with the international benchmark
heading for a record monthly jump. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained
3.4% to $102.96 per barrel.
The Washington Post reported Saturday night that the
Pentagon was preparing for weeks of potential ground conflict in Iran as around
3,500 troops arrived
in the region on Friday. Thousands of soldiers from the 82nd Airborne
Division have also been ordered
to support the war effort.
Trump said last week that Iranian
negotiators were “begging” the U.S. to make a deal to end the war,
though Iran has denied any direct interaction with the U.S. Trump in his
interview to the FT said that indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran via
Pakistani “emissaries” were progressing well.
----A potential U.S. ground
operation will likely trigger Iranian military to escalate attacks on power
infrastructure and desalinization plants across the Gulf region, said Seth
Krummrich, vice president of Global Guardian, and a former U.S. chief of staff,
special operations, CENTCOM.
“We’re probably closer to the
beginning or to the middle of this story than we are to the end,” Krummrich
said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box
Asia” on Monday.
Signaling further escalation,
critical infrastructure in the region has come under fire. In a social
media post on Monday morning, Kuwait said a service building at a
power generation and water desalination plant were damaged in an attack Sunday
evening, killing one worker.
----Gulf desalination plants supply
most drinking water in the region, making them critical infrastructure and a
sensitive target in any escalation.
More
Trump
warns US could 'take the oil in Iran' as Mideast war escalates
Brits told to prepare for four day
working week as Iran war continues to bite
28 March 2026
Brits could be set for a four day
working week while motorists could be limited to certain days on the road
if the Iran war continues to impact fuel prices, it has been claimed.
Nick Butler, former BP head
of strategy and a policy advisor to ex-PM Gordon Brown,
said limiting drivers to alternate days based on their vehicle's registration
number would be one measure the Government could be forced to consider.
Another would be for employers to
allow an extra day off for staff every week to reduce commuter traffic. It
comes as fuel supplies continue to be hit following the war in Iran, with petrol stations across the country
running out of fuel while the price of oil
continues to rise. He told the BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "If supplies
are cut by 20%, then someone is using 20% less."
He added: "The government has
to protect the key sectors of the economy - food supply, health service,
schools and so on - and then it has to work out how it's going to manage the
market for the rest of us.
"I don't think they can just
leave it to a free-for-all, which would be chaotic and very regressive and
unfair to those of limited ability to pay. I don't think it's going to be
ration books.
"A lot of countries around the
world are now beginning to look at how to gently reduce consumption - driving
alternate days for different registration numbers, having an extra day's
holiday a week - that's what some countries in the Far East are doing."
Iran continues to strangle global
oil supplies in response to military action led by the United States and
Israel.
The regime in Tehran is understood
to be setting itself up as the gatekeeper for the Strait of Hormuz, the world's
most important artery for oil shipments in a move that could cement its de
facto chokehold over the crucial waterway and formalise its ability to keep its
own oil flowing to China.
Iranian communications to the United
Nations maritime authority and the experience of ships transiting the strait
suggest the creation of something akin to a "toll booth".
Ships must enter Iranian waters and
be vetted by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. At least two vessels
have paid for passage.
The Iran oil crisis has cost UK
drivers more than £300million in more expensive fuel, according to new
analysis.
Motoring research charity the RAC
Foundation said rises in pump prices since the conflict in the Middle East
began on February 28 have led to motorists paying an additional £307million for
petrol and diesel.
Oil prices have soared to as much as
$120 a barrel in response to Iran's stranglehold on tankers passing through the
Strait of Hormuz.
This has led to the average price of
a litre of petrol at UK forecourts rising from 132.9p on February 27 to 146.4p
on Monday.
Diesel prices have surged from
142.4p to 169.8p over the same period.
Brits told to prepare for four day working week as Iran war
continues to bite
German
‘petrol tourists’ flood into Poland
March
28, 2026
Faced
with sky-high petrol prices in the wake of the Iran war,
increasing numbers of Germans are embarking on “fuel tourism” trips across the
border.
The
trend is delighting petrol station operators – but infuriating local
authorities.
At
a Shell station in the Polish village of Łeknica, a stone’s throw from Germany,
staff said they had never seen anything like the recent surge in demand.
“Maybe
a thousand German cars are arriving at our station every day,” said a cashier
who gave her name as Julia.
Most
motorists are filling up with diesel, which is about 28 cents per litre cheaper
on the eastern side of the border.
They
are not just making quick stops. Many arrive with jerry cans, filling up as
much as they are legally allowed to before heading home.
While
cross-border refuelling has long been a feature of life in parts of Europe, the
scale of the current surge is new. “We’re happy,” the cashier said. “They are
our main source of business.”
However,
Polish authorities are less enthusiastic and have said the influx is leading to
fuel shortages for residents, with some stations forced to close after running
dry.
Mayors
in several border towns have accused German motorists of “squirrelling away”
fuel, exacerbating supply problems in areas not equipped to handle such demand.
Some
stations are voluntarily implementing volume restrictions, limiting the amount
of fuel sold per car to maintain supply for residents. Others have banned
Germans from filling up anything other than their vehicles.
But
with Warsaw promising tax relief on fuel before the Easter break, the flow of
traffic across the River Oder could intensify in the coming days.
Germany
entered the crisis with some of the highest fuel prices in Europe, largely
because of a taxation system designed to discourage the use of carbon-intensive
fuels. That has created stark price differentials with neighbouring countries.
ADAC,
the German motoring association, has long tracked such differences, publishing
regularly updated comparisons to help drivers decide whether a cross-border
trip is worthwhile.
German
newspapers have also begun publishing detailed maps showing where cross-border
trips are financially worthwhile, underlining how widespread the phenomenon has
become.
----With
the government reluctant to introduce sweeping relief, motorists are
increasingly looking west as well as east.
Diesel
is currently about 16 cents per litre cheaper in France than in Germany, while
petrol is approximately 10 cents cheaper.
Small
petrol stations on the western side of the Rhine have found themselves suddenly
deluged with customers as Germans take advantage of the price gap.
Even
Switzerland, typically one of Europe’s more expensive countries, is attracting
German drivers to its border regions.
Fuel
tourism is not confined to Germany. Across Europe, governments are grappling
with similar distortions as drivers chase lower prices.
Slovenia
has introduced fuel rationing after a surge of motorists from neighbouring
Austria began flooding its petrol stations. Under the new rules, private
motorists are limited to 50 litres per day, while businesses and farmers are
allowed up to 200 litres.
Slovakia
has gone a step further, allowing service stations to cap diesel sales and
charge higher prices for vehicles with foreign number plates.
Elsewhere,
governments are attempting to ease the burden on domestic consumers. In Italy,
where petrol prices have reached around €1.83 per litre, ministers have cut
excise duties from 67 cents to 47 cents per litre. Spain has announced a €5bn
fuel relief package.
German
‘petrol tourists’ flood into Poland
In other news.
The 7 countries Iran allows to pass
through the Strait of Hormuz — and those left stranded
28 March 2026
The rising tensions between Iran and
the US have seriously disrupted global energy markets by blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway
ordinarily handles approximately a fifth of the world's energy trade, and its
disruption has prompted emergency responses from energy-dependent nations,
including four-day workweeks and air conditioning restrictions.
As the war enters its second month,
the reality remains stark. Daily transit volumes collapsed from a pre-war
average of over 100 vessels to merely three or four ships. Amid this
restriction, Iranian authorities granted passage to a small cohort of partner
nations, leaving thousands of commercial vessels stranded.
How Seven Friendly Nations Secured
Passage Through the Blockade
The Iranian government recently
confirmed it permits safe transit for vessels belonging to seven specific
countries. India emerged as a primary beneficiary, providing critical relief
for a nation facing a liquefied petroleum gas shortage. Officials designated
India as a friendly nation, granting its shipments an exemption.
This clearance yielded immediate
results. On 28 March, the carriers BW Tyr and BW Elm began transiting the
strait. Over the past month, five other vessels arrived in India after crossing
the restricted zone, including the Pine Gas, Jag Vasant, Shivalik, Nanda Devi,
and the crude oil carrier Jag Laadki.
The Consulate General of Iran in
Mumbai confirmed the permitted nations on 26 March. 'Iran FM Abbas Araghchi: We
permitted passage through the Strait of Hormuz for friendly nations including
China, Russia, India, Iraq, and Pakistan,' it posted. Thailand and Malaysia
subsequently announced that Tehran had assured their ships would receive
clearance as well, bringing the total number of permitted nations to seven.
Why US and Allied Vessels Face an
Absolute Ban
While select partners enjoy
protected transit, vessels associated with the United States, Israel, and their
allies face strict prohibition. Authorities have rigidly enforced this ban,
halting ships linked to hostile nations and creating a significant logistical
backlog.
The government outlined its
parameters in a 24 March letter to the International Maritime Organization.
'Non-hostile vessels, including those belonging to or associated with other
States, may — provided that they neither participate in nor support acts of
aggression against Iran and fully comply with the declared safety and security
regulations — benefit from safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz in
coordination with the competent Iranian authorities,' it stated.
The maritime disruption continues to
escalate. IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez noted that approximately
2,000 ships currently sit idle on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz, awaiting
transit.
The Controversial Toll System
Proposed by the Iranian Parliament
Beyond restricting access, lawmakers
are developing legislation to extract financial compensation. The Islamic
Consultative Assembly is reviewing a drafted legal framework to mandate toll collections. 'According to this plan, Iran must collect fees to ensure
the security of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz,' an official
explained. 'The Strait of Hormuz is also a corridor. We ensure its security,
and it is natural for ships and tankers to pay us duties,' he added.
Despite pending legislation, Lloyd's
List reported on 25 March that authorities had already begun charging select
ships to transit safely, with those informal tolls having sparked international
backlash. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly challenged the initiative:
'One of the immediate challenges we're going to face is an Iran that may decide
that they want to set up a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz. Not only is
this illegal, it's unacceptable, it's dangerous for the world.'
The 7 countries Iran allows to pass through the Strait of
Hormuz — and those left stranded
Emirates Global Aluminium Al
Taweelah site damaged in Iranian missile, drone attacks
28 March 2026
Dubai: Emirates Global Aluminium
said on Saturday its Al Taweelah site sustained significant damage during
Iranian missile and drone attacks at Khalifa Economic Zone Abu Dhabi, with
assessments ongoing.
The company said in a statement that
a number of employees were injured, but added that none of the injuries were
life-threatening.
Chief Executive Officer Abdulnasser
Bin Kalban said: “The safety and security of our people is our top priority at
EGA at all times. We are deeply saddened and are assessing the damage to our
facilities.”
EGA said its Al Taweelah smelter
produced 1.6 million tonnes of cast metal in 2025. The company added it had
"substantial metal stock on the water when the conflict began, and stock
on the ground in some overseas locations."
Emirates Global Aluminium Al Taweelah site damaged in
Iranian missile, drone attacks
“We are mired in stalemate.”
President Lyndon B. Johnson
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
Worries about global economic pain deepen as the war in Iran drags on
29 March 2026
U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran have driven up
prices, darkened the outlook for the world economy, sent global stock markets
reeling and forced developing countries to ration fuel and subsidize energy
costs to protect their poorest.
Ongoing strikes and
counterstrikes on Persian Gulf refineries,
pipelines, gas fields and tanker terminals threaten to the prolong the global
economic pain for months, even years.
“A week ago or certainly
two weeks ago, I would have said: If the war stopped that day, the long-term
implications would be pretty small,’’ said Christopher Knittel, an energy
economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “But what we’re seeing
is infrastructure actually being destroyed, which means the ramifications of
this war are going to be long-lived.’’
Iran has hit Qatar’s Ras
Laffan natural gas terminal, which produces 20% of the world’s liquefied
natural gas. The March 18 strike wiped out 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity
and repairs will take up to five years, state-owned QatarEnergy said.
The war caused an oil
shock from the get-go. Iran responded to U.S. and Israeli attacks Feb. 28 by
effectively closing off the Strait of Hormuz, a transit point for a fifth of
the world’s oil, by threatening tankers trying to pass through.
Gulf oil exporters like
Kuwait and Iraq cut production because there was nowhere for their oil to go
without access to the strait. The loss of 20 million barrels of oil a day
delivered what the International Energy Agency calls the “largest supply disruption
in the history of the global oil market.’’
The price for a barrel of
Brent crude oil climbed 3.4% on Friday to settle at $105.32. That was up from
roughly $70 just before the war began. Benchmark U.S. crude rose 5.5% to settle
at $99.64 per barrel.
“Historically, oil price
shocks like this have led to global recessions,’’ Knittel said.
The war also has dredged
up a bad economic memory from the oil shocks of the 1970s: stagflation.
“You’re raising the risk
of higher inflation and lower growth,’’ said the Harvard Kennedy School's
Carmen Reinhart, a former World Bank chief economist.
Gita Gopinath, former
chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, recently wrote that global
economic growth, expected before the war to register 3.3% this year, would be
0.3 to 0.4 percentage points lower if oil prices averaged $85 a barrel in 2026.
Fertilizer shortages and
price hikes hurt farmers
The Persian Gulf accounts
for a big share of exports of two key fertilizers, a third of urea and a
quarter of ammonia. Producers in the region enjoy an advantage: easy access to
low-cost natural gas, the primary feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers.
Up to 40% of world
exports of nitrogen fertilizer pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Now that the passage is
blocked, urea prices are up 50% since the war and ammonia 20%. Big agricultural
producer Brazil is especially vulnerable because it gets 85% of its fertilizer from
imports, Alpine Macro commodity strategist Kelly Xu wrote in a commentary.
Egypt, a big fertilizer producer itself, needs natural gas to make the stuff
and production falters when it can’t get enough.
Eventually, higher
fertilizer prices are likely to make food more expensive and less abundant as
farmers skimp on it and get lower yields. The squeeze on food supplies will
land hardest on families in poorer countries.
The war also has
disrupted world supplies of helium, a byproduct of natural gas and a key input
in chipmaking, rockets and medical imaging. Qatar makes helium at the Ros
Laffan facility and supplies a third of the world’s helium.
Rationing gas and
limiting the air conditioning
“No country will be
immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction,”
International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol said on March 23.
Poorer countries will be
hit hardest and face the biggest energy shortages “because they will be outbid
when competing for the remaining oil and natural gas,’’ said Lutz Kilian,
director of the Center for Energy and the Economy at the Federal Reserve Bank
of Dallas.
Asia is especially
exposed: More than 80% of the oil and LNG that passes through the Strait of
Hormuz is headed there.
In the Philippines,
government offices are now open just four days a week and bureaucrats must
limit the use of air conditioning to nothing cooler than 75°F (24°C). In
Thailand, public workers have been told to take the stairs instead of
elevators.
India is the world’s
second-biggest importer of liquefied petroleum gas, which is used in cooking.
The Indian government is giving households priority over businesses as it
allocates its limited supply and absorbing most of the price increases to keep
costs low for poor families.
But LPG shortages have
forced some eateries to shorten hours, close temporarily or drop dishes like
curries and deep-fried snacks requiring a lot of energy.
South Korea, dependent on
energy imports, is restricting the use of cars by public employees and has
reinstated fuel price caps that had been dropped in the 1990s.
Crisis hits a vulnerable
U.S. economy
The United States, the
world’s largest economy, is somewhat insulated.
America is an oil
exporter, so its energy companies stand to benefit from higher prices. And LNG
prices are lower in the U.S. than elsewhere because its export liquefaction
facilities already are running at 100% capacity. The U.S. can’t export any more
LNG than it already is, so gas stays home, keeping domestic supplies abundant
and prices stable.
Still, higher gasoline
prices are weighing on American consumers already frustrated by the high cost
of living. According to AAA, the average price of a gallon of gasoline has
risen to nearly $4 a gallon from $2.98 a month ago.
“Nothing weighs more
heavily on consumers’ collective psyche than having to pay more at the pump,”
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, and his colleagues wrote in a
commentary.
The U.S. economy already
was showing signs of weakness, expanding an annual pace of just 0.7% from
October through December, down from a rollicking 4.4% from July through
September. Employers unexpectedly cut 92,000 jobs in February and added just
9,700 a month in 2025, the weakest hiring outside a recession since 2002.
Gregory Daco, chief
economist at EY-Parthenon, has raised the odds of a U.S. recession over the
next year to 40%. The risk when times are "normal'' is just 15%.
More
Worries about global economic pain deepen as the war in Iran drags on
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
More than 100,000 electric VWs recalled over battery fire concerns
28 March 2026
The Volkswagen Group has launched a
global recall of more than 100,000 electric cars over an identified issue
within the battery modules that could potentially trigger fires.
The recall notice affect nearly 75,000
vehicles from Volkswagen's 'ID' EV range as well as nearly 20,000 Cupra Borns
that rolled off the production line between February 2022 and August 2024.
However, of all the cars impacted, just
over 2,000 are UK registered - and only one very specific model.
According to notices issued earlier
this month, a fault within the modules in the high-voltage battery could cause
reduced range and even fires breaking out.
A free-of-charge software update will
be run on the vehicles brought back to dealers. There too will be an
inspection of the high voltage battery and, if needed, individual modules of
the battery will be replaced, the notices said.
A Volkswagen Group spokesperson said:
'We have identified that in vehicles from the ID. series produced during a
limited period, one of the modules in the high-voltage battery may not fully
meet our technical specifications.'
Speaking to Auto Express, VW
representative added: 'As a result, there may be a reduction in electric
driving range or the illumination of a yellow warning indicator in the
vehicle.
'In very rare cases, there is also a
possibility of thermal overload within a battery module, which in extreme
situations could lead to a fire.'
While the issue affects various
Volkswagen ID cars and the Cupra Born worldwide, VW UK said the recall is going
out to just owners of the Volkswagen ID.3 Pro S models produced in the 18-month
window previous stated.
It said this should 'only' implicate
2,261 drivers in Britain.
VW's massive global callback of EVs
comes just a month after Volvo initiated its own recall of 40,000 EVs, also over battery fire concerns.
Volvo Cars UK confirmed to Daily Mail
and This is Money that 10,440 examples of the £33,000 EX30 SUV on Britain's
roads are involved in the recall - specifically the Single Motor Extended Range
and Twin Motor Performance versions.
Like the VW recall, battery units may
need to be replaced if found to be faulty.
More
More than 100,000 electric VWs recalled over battery fire concerns
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world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
“It was a war we couldn’t win.”
Richard Nixon
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