Baltic
Dry Index. 2037-19 Brent Crude 103.93
Spot Gold 4341 Spot Silver 67.15
US 2 Year Yield 3.83 -0.05
US Federal Debt. 39.027 trillion
US GDP 31.263 trillion.
Higher taxes never reduce the deficit. Governments spend whatever they take in and then whatever they can get away with.
Milton Friedman
7:30 AM Update.
Saudis and UAE Weigh Joining Iran
War
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have taken some steps toward joining the Iran War, the Wall Street Journal reported — potentially signaling an escalation of the fighting. Saudi Arabia agreed to give the military US access to King Fahd Air Base, the WSJ said, an apparent reversal after saying its bases couldn’t be used to attack its longtime rival. US stock futures fell on the report and oil climbed. Check out our Markets Today live blog for all the latest news and analysis relevant to UK assets.
ECB Must Be Vigilant in Face of Stagflation Risks, Vujcic Says
The European Central Bank must be “very agile and vigilant” to keep prices in check as the Iran war brings stagflation risks closer, Governing Council member Boris Vujcic said.
3.30 AM Update.
A Monday for the history books. For whatever reason, President Trump TACOed again, halting for five days, his war on Iran.
Israel, apparently unconsulted, continued its war on Iran and its proxies on Monday.
In the markets, instant relief, followed by rising uncertainty that any meaningful talks are underway or about to get underway in Pakistan.
In Strait of Hormuz news, two tankers exited with LPG for India and an Iraqi oil tanker exited for an undisclosed destination.
Asia-Pacific markets pare gains as
oil rebounds on Iran war-linked uncertainty
Published Mon, Mar 23 2026 8:05 PM
EDT
Asia-Pacific markets pared gains
Tuesday as oil prices rebounded, underscoring lingering uncertainty over the
Middle East conflict.
Brent crude futures for May
rose over 3.5% to $103.7 per barrel while the West Texas Intermediate futures jumped
4% to $91.72 per barrel. The uptick follows a sharp sell-off on Monday,
when Brent crude fell
nearly 11% to around $99 per barrel after topping
$112 on Friday.
“Despite the exuberance on Wall
Street ... oil is well off its lows after Tehran denied conducting any weekend
negotiations with Washington,” said José Torres, senior economist at
Interactive Brokers, who added that the risk of an extended war remains at the
top of the mind for the market.
South Korea’s Kospi had surged over
3% before paring gains to 1.5%, while the small-cap Kosdaq was last up 1.7%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.1%, while
the Topix added 1.87% after Japan’s headline inflation rate eased for a fourth
straight month in February as the economy cooled on stabilizing food prices and
fuel subsidies.
The consumer price index fell to
1.3% last month, according to data released by Japan’s Statistics Bureau
Tuesday, marking the lowest since March 2022 and below the central bank’s 2%
target, down from 1.5% in January.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose by
0.32%.
Hong Kong Hang Seng index advanced
1.62%, while the CSI 300 rose 0.52%.
The gains came after U.S. President
Donald Trump said Monday he had instructed
the U.S. military to delay planned strikes on Iran’s power plants and
energy facilities for five days, after discussions with Iranian officials.
However, Iranian state media, citing
an unnamed senior security official in a Telegram post, disputed Trump’s
account, denying that any talks had taken place between Washington and Tehran.
“I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO
DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL
RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST,” Trump said Monday in a Truth
Social post.
Overnight in the U.S., stocks
rallied. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average jumped 631 points, or 1.38%, to close at 46,208.47.
The S&P 500 rose
1.15% and ended at 6,581.00, while the Nasdaq Composite gained
1.38% and settled at 21,946.76.
Before Trump’s comments, posted
on Truth Social early Monday, futures pointed to more
losses for equity markets under siege from skyrocketing oil prices and
uncertainty about the duration of the Iran conflict. But after Trump’s
comments, Dow futures briefly surged more than 1,000 points.
Spot gold fell about 1.5% to
$4,340.18, while spot silver prices
fell nearly 3%.
Asia
markets: Oil, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, Kospi
Oil rises with Brent crossing $100 a
barrel again as Middle East tensions keep traders on edge
Published Mon, Mar 23 2026 9:51 PM
EDT
Oil prices gained in Asia trading
Tuesday after clocking steep declines overnight, as traders assess developments
related to the Middle East conflict.
Brent crude futures for May
rose over 3% to $102.96 per barrel while the West Texas Intermediate futures for
May jumped 3.6% to $91.27 per barrel.
The uptick follows a sharp sell-off
on Monday, with Brent crude falling
about 11% to around $99 per barrel on Monday after topping
$112 on Friday.
----Trump’s statement sent oil
lower, while equities jumped. Still, the recovery on Tuesday suggests lingering
skepticism over Trump’s claims — that were also refuted by Iran.
“Despite the exuberance on Wall
Street, ladies and gentlemen, oil is well off its lows after Tehran denied
conducting any weekend negotiations with Washington,” said José Torres, senior
economist at Interactive Brokers, who added that the risk of an extended war
remains at the top of the mind for the market.
Torres noted that repeated attacks
on critical energy infrastructure in the Middle East are fueling continued
concerns over potential disruptions to production and transportation.
“Additionally, in consideration of
the vast number of attacks that have affected critical energy in the Middle
East … there’s nervousness that there could be capacity and transportation
disruptions that keep costs higher than at the beginning of the year even if
there’s a deal,” he wrote in a note published on Tuesday.
The Strait of Hormuz was handling
about 20% of global seaborne oil supplies until the war broke out, before Iran
virtually stopped flows via the critical waterway.
Iranian state media said Sunday that
Tehran would permit safe transit through the strait, except for ships
associated with its “enemies.”
Oil
markets: WTI, Brent, Middle East tensions keep markets on edge
Trump Delays Iran Power-Plant
Strikes for Five Days
The US president postponed
threatened strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, pending what he said
were discussions with Iran to end the war. Iran denied talks had happened.
March 23, 2026 at 8:57 PM GMT
US President Donald Trump postponed
threatened strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and power
plants for five days, pending the outcome of what he said were talks with Iran
to end the war. The delay came after Trump’s original threat on Saturday
to “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants, beginning with the biggest one, if
it didn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial ship traffic within
48 hours.
Both sides are keen to “make a
deal,” Trump told reporters on Monday — but Iran denied
that negotiations are taking place. The semi-official Fars news agency
reported there hasn’t been “direct or indirect communication” with the US
leader. Government officials have yet to comment.
Still, the Trump post
triggered a
wild reversal in markets. While Brent crude oil pared its decline
after Iran denied the discussions, it
still dropped 11% to settle at $99.94 a barrel. The S&P 500 added
1.2%. Treasury yields and the dollar retreated, with traders backing off some
of their more hawkish Federal Reserve bets and pricing in a few basis points
worth of easing this year. — Jordan
Parker Erb
Two Indian-flagged vessels carrying
more than 92,600 tons of liquefied petroleum gas were making their way through
the Strait of Hormuz, ship-tracking data show, following a
route taken by other ships approved by Iran that hews closely to the
country’s coastline. The two vessels had earlier signaled Indian ownership with
their transponders instead of a destination — a precautionary measure followed
by other ships making the crossing. India has been facing acute shortages of
LPG and the nation has been in talks with Tehran to secure cargoes of the fuel,
used primarily as cooking gas.
Meanwhile, an oil supertanker
hauling 2 million barrels of Iraq’s crude got
through the Strait of Hormuz, the first vessel observed moving Baghdad’s
oil through the vital waterway since it
all but closed to commercial shipping. The Omega Trader,
managed by Japan’s Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd, signaled over the past few days that
it reached Mumbai, tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. Its prior
signal before reaching the Indian port city had been from inside the Persian
Gulf more than 10 days ago.
Trump
Delays Iran Power-Plant Strikes for Five Days - Bloomberg
Volume in stock and oil futures
surged minutes before Trump’s market-turning post
Published Mon, Mar 23 202 612:19 PM
EDT
S&P 500 futures and oil futures
flashed an unusual burst of activity early Monday minutes before a
market-moving social media post from President Donald Trump.
At around 6:50 a.m. in New York,
S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated
jump in volume, breaking from an otherwise subdued premarket backdrop. With
thin liquidity typical of early trading hours, the sudden burst stood out as
one of the largest volume moments of the session up to that point.
A similar pattern was observed in
oil markets. West Texas Intermediate May futures also saw a noticeable pickup
in trading activity at roughly the same time, with a distinct volume spike
interrupting otherwise quiet conditions.
Roughly 15 minutes later, at 7:05
a.m., Trump said on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran had held talks and that
he was halting planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy
infrastructure. That announcement prompted an instant rally in risk assets,
with S&P 500 futures soaring more than 2.5% before the opening bell. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped
nearly 6% following the announcement.
The timing of the earlier volume
spikes across both equities and crude caught the attention of traders,
particularly given the absence of an obvious catalyst at the moment they
occurred.
Early-morning futures markets are
typically less liquid, which can make short bursts of buying and selling more
noticeable than during regular trading hours. Still, the trades raised some
eyebrows because whoever purchased a large amount of stock futures and sold or
shorted crude futures at that moment made a lot of money just minutes later.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission and the CME Group declined to comment.
Volume
in stock, oil futures surged minutes before Trump's market-turning post
De-escalation arrives just in time
as ‘pressure index’ forces Trump’s hand
March 23. 2026
Deutsche Bank has produced a
proprietary index calculating various political and economic inputs that might
induce President Donald Trump to seek de-escalation with Iran. This pressure
would appear to have resulted in a climbdown Monday, with the White House
alleging constructive talks with Iran, even as Iran denied them.
Deutsche Bank’s simple index
incorporates — with equal weightings — U.S. Treasury bond yields, one-month
shifts in Trump’s popularity ratings, one-year inflation expectations and the
performance of the S&P 500.
The index shows four spikes in the
last 12 months including "liberation day" and its aftermath in April,
the controversy surrounding the potential ousting of Fed Chair Jerome Powell
last summer, the dispute centered on Greenland in January and the present
crisis in the Middle East.
Of these four events, the spike in
the pressure index for the latest is the sharpest and may indicate why Trump
felt he had no option to de-escalate.
De-escalation
arrives just in time as ‘pressure index’ forces Trump’s hand - MarketWatch
'Trump Backed Down': Iran Media
Denies Direct Talks After US Holds Off Energy Strikes
"Trump, fearing Iran's
response, backed down from his 48-hour ultimatum," Islamic Republic of
Iran Broadcasting said in a post on X
Mar 23, 2026 17:53 pm IST
Shortly after US President Donald
Trump announced that he is deferring "any and all" strikes on Iranian
power plants and energy infrastructure on productive resolution talks, Iranian
media reports denied any 'direct' or 'intermediary' communication with
him.
"Trump, fearing Iran's
response, backed down from his 48-hour ultimatum," Islamic Republic of
Iran Broadcasting said in a post on X.
Ebrahim Rezaei, Spokesperson of the
National Security and Foreign Policy Commission reiterated the claims and said,
"Trump and America have backed down again. The field is still charging
forward. Another defeat for the devil," in a post on X.
Iran's Fars news agency also denied
claims of dialogue stating that Trump retreated due to Iranian threats.
Tasnim news media from Tehran
alleged Trump of making these announcements just to trim crude oil prices, once
again iterating that no talks for resolutions were held.
The news agency added that Iran will
"continue to defend itself".
More
'Trump
Backed Down': Iran Media Denies Direct Talks After US Holds Off Energy Strikes
10-year Treasury yield falls after
Trump halts strikes against Iran
Published Mon, Mar 23 2026 6:44 AM
EDT Updated Mon, Mar 23 2026 4:02 PM EDT
The 10-year Treasury note yield
fell on Monday after President Donald
Trump said further military strikes against Iran had been postponed
after “productive” negotiations between the warring sides.
The benchmark yield was down more
than 4 basis points at 4.348%. Earlier in the session, the benchmark security
hit its highest level since July as traders had feared the Federal Reserve
wouldn’t be lowering interest rates this year and actually could hike as their
next move. It then fell sharply, but then turned back to flat before moving
lower once again as traders processed the news.
The yield on the
policy-sensitive 2-year note dropped
more than 4 basis points to 3.848%. The 30-year bond yield was off 4
basis points at 4.92%.
One basis point is equal to 0.01%,
and yields and prices move in opposite directions.
----“In order for equities to
stabilize, beyond oil price considerations, bond yields need to stabilize too,”
said JPMorgan equity strategist Mislav Matejka in a Monday note.
The economic data docket is mostly
bare this week. The S&P Global Flash U.S. PMI report is due Tuesday
morning, which measures the economic health of American manufacturing and
services sectors.
February’s PMI report indicated a
slowdown of business growth for services firms and employment expansion, and
economists expect further softening. A reading above 50 tends to indicate
growth, and forecasts predict the latest report to come in at 50.5, down from
51.9 in February.
The University of Michigan will
release its consumer sentiment index for March on Friday.
Traders have been worried over the
hostilities in the Middle East. Trump had said Saturday that he would
“obliterate” Iran’s power plants if
Tehran failed to fully reopen the Strait within 48 hours.
Iran responded by escalating threats
to target energy infrastructure and desalination facilities in the Gulf.
Iranian Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also said
Saturday that entities
that purchase American government bonds and “finance the U.S. military
budget” would be considered legitimate targets, alongside military bases.
10-year
Treasury yield falls after Trump halts strikes against Iran
In other news.
As the U.S. invests in rare earths, a mine that was broke and
underwater 10 years ago is now a game-changer
By Jon Wertheim, Aliza Chasan,
Graham Messick, Alex Ortiz
March 22, 2026 / 7:45 PM EDT / CBS
News
About a decade after he bought a
shuttered rare earths mine
that was, literally, partially underwater, MP Materials CEO James Litinsky has
transformed his business into a pivotal player in America's national
security.
Since taking over the rare earth
industry from the United States in the 1990s, China has dominated the entire
supply chain. That includes the mining, processing and especially the making of
super-powered magnets using these elemental metals, which are essential
components inside smartphones, robotics, fighter jets and drones. When
President Trump enacted his tariff plans in April 2025, China responded by
restricting sales of some rare earth elements and magnets to the U.S. – and
requiring companies to file detailed disclosures for how they would be used.
"As it stands today, we need
permission from the Chinese government to make things. We need permission from
the Chinese government to make military things," Litinsky said. "The
practical reality is, that is not an acceptable condition."
What are rare earths and where are they in the U.S.
Despite the name, rare earths aren't
rare; what's actually rare are sites with high enough concentrations of rare
earths, and accessible enough locations, to make extraction worthwhile. In all,
there are 17 rare earth elements, each one an elemental metal on the periodic
table.
These are not well-known metals like
iron, copper and aluminum. There's europium, which enhanced the color red in
early television sets, and neodymium, which strengthens and miniaturizes
magnets. These so-called "rare earth permanent magnets" are used in
everything from high-speed rail and electric vehicles to the tiny motors that
make iPhones buzz, according to Julie Klinger, a professor of environmental
studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and a rare earths expert.
"The thing that distinguishes rare
earth elements are their fantastic magnetic, conductive and optical
properties," Klinger said. "So they're used often the way you might
use spices in cooking, because if you add just a little bit of a certain rare
earth element, say, to a magnet, that enables that magnet to be both very small
and very powerful."
Geologists found rare earths at Mountain
Pass, California, in 1949. By the 60s, individual rare earths were being mined,
separated and utilized. Mountain Pass was considered the world's main rare
earth mine for decades.
But the process eventually moved
offshore because China could do it cheaper.
"It's a dirty business. It's a
risky business," Klinger said. "It's a difficult business to really
break even."
Mountain Pass fell victim to
globalization, and also to U.S. environmental regulators in the 1990s after low
levels of radioactive water and residue leaked into the Mojave Desert. The mine
languished for a decade until a new company, Molycorp, tried, unsuccessfully,
to compete with China and revive the business. Molycorp filed for bankruptcy in
2015.
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
Now it depends on the outcome
of the next five days.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Yes, yet another battery fire. Approx.
5 minutes.
Power
Bank Car Fire in Seconds: Why Battery Fires Spread Fast
Power Bank Car Fire in Seconds: Why Battery Fires Spread Fast
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
The combination of economic and political power in the same
hands is a sure recipe for tyranny.
Milton Friedman
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