Baltic Dry Index. 2138 -Thur. Brent Crude 92.69
Spot
Gold 5172 Spot Silver 84.31
U
S 2 Year Yield 3.56 -0.01
US
Federal Debt. 38.850 trillion
US
GDP 31.213 trillion
Money is not an invention of the state. It is not the product of
a legislative act. Even the sanction of political authority is not necessary
for its existence. Certain commodities came to be money quite naturally, as the
result of economic relationships that were independent of the power of the
state.
Carl Menger
6.00
AM. Update.
U.S.
payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February; unemployment rate rises to
4.4%
Published
Fri, Mar 6 2026 8:31 AM EST Updated Fri, Mar 6 2026 11:12 AM EST
The
U.S. economy lost jobs in February, a month marred by severe winter weather and
a strike at a major health-care provider, the Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported Friday.
Nonfarm
payrolls fell by 92,000 for the month, compared with the estimate for 50,000
and below the downwardly revised January total of 126,000. February marked the
third time in the past five months that payrolls declined, following a sharp
revision showing a drop of 17,000 in December.
At
the same time, the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4% as jobs declined
across key areas. A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged
workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons moved lower,
to 7.9% or 0.2 percentage point below the January level.
----While
the jobs picture was weak, wages rose more than expected. Average hourly
earnings increased 0.4% for the month and 3.8% from a year ago, both 0.1
percentage point above forecast.
“I
think it just tells us that the hopes that the labor market was steadying,
maybe that was too much,” Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of
San Francisco, told CNBC. “We also have inflation printing above target and oil
prices rising. How long they last, we don’t know, but both of our goals are
risks now and we have to keep our eyes on both.”
Information
services, a sector hit by artificial intelligence-related cuts, also lost jobs,
down 11,000 as part of a 12-month trend in which the sector has lost an average
of 5,000 per month. Manufacturing saw a loss of 12,000, despite tariffs aimed
at reshoring jobs from overseas.
Federal
government employment also fell, off 10,000 for the month. President Donald
Trump’s efforts to pare federal payrolls has seen a slide of 330,000 jobs, or
11% of the total workforce, since October 2024, a few months before Trump took
office, according to the BLS.
Transportation
and warehousing saw a reduction of 11,000. Social assistance was one of the few
sectors posting a gain, up 9,000. The weather-sensitive construction industry
lost 11,000 after surging by 48,000 in January.
Long-term
unemployment also surged higher, with the average duration of unemployment at
25.7 weeks, the longest since December 2021.
More
What
oil price shocks mean for U.S. construction after the start of operation epic
fury
Michael
Guckes March 6, 2026
Around
the world, different types of oil are pumped from the ground. As a result,
there are several oil markets, and their prices reflect varying geographic
exposure to different world events.
Brent
vs. WTI: Key Differences in Oil Benchmarks
Two
of the biggest oil markets trade in Brent Crude Oil and West Texas Intermediate
or “WTI”. Both are classified as light, sweet crude oils suitable for refining
into gasoline and diesel, yet they differ in source, quality, and location.
Brent
crude is extracted from the North Sea, making it the benchmark for
international, waterborne oil exports, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is
produced in U.S. landlocked fields and serves as the primary US benchmark.
For
these reasons, Brent’s price is often considered the global reference price.
However, Brent’s greater global exposure to world events makes it more
price-sensitive to the impacts of global conflict relative to WTI.
Operation
Epic Fury and Its Ripple Effects on Fuel Prices
Operation
Epic Fury, a large-scale U.S.-led military campaign launched in February 2026
against Iran, has generated significant concern around the stability of the
Middle East’s oil supplies.
The
potential destruction of production and or key supply chain infrastructure,
including pipelines, hubs, and tanker ports, has driven the prices for both
Brent and WTI crude significantly higher since last week.
The
latest trading data point to both WTI and US national average diesel
prices rising to multi-year highs.
Diesel
Fuel Prices
Diesel
fuel prices are released by the Energy Information Administration each Tuesday. The
last weekly reading was released on March 2nd, 2026, and reported diesel fuel’s
price at $3.89 per gallon. AAA’s daily report for March 5th cited diesel at
$4.17 per gallon.
Historically,
large swings in diesel prices have been correlated with similar, though
smaller, moves in construction goods prices. Looking more broadly, rising
fuel prices will directly affect transportation costs, which will spill over to
all goods that require transportation.
Heavy,
bulk goods in particular will be more impacted by higher fuel costs. Civil projects that involve significant amounts of
heavy, high-volume materials, such as aggregate or concrete, will be
disproportionately affected.
What oil price shocks mean for U.S. construction after the start of operation epic fury
3.00 AM.
Sadly, today’s articles speak loudly of the folly of starting an
unnecessary and discretionary war on Iran.
Dinosaur Graeme’s thoughts, prepare for the GREAT
GLOBAL CRASH of 2026 and hope for it not to happen and dinosaur Graeme to be
wrong.
Oil
surges 35% this week for biggest gain in futures trading history dating back to
1983
Published
Fri, Mar 6 2026 5:13 AM EST Updated Fri, Mar 6 2026 3:23 PM EST
U.S.
crude oil on Friday posted its biggest weekly gain in futures trading history,
as the escalating war in the Middle East has triggered a major disruption to
global fuel supplies.
West Texas Intermediate futures
surged 12.21%, or $9.89, to close at $90.90 per barrel. Global benchmark Brent rallied 8.52%, or
$7.28, to settle at $92.69 per barrel.
U.S.
crude soared 35.63% for the biggest weekly gain in the history of the futures
contract dating back to 1983. Brent jumped about 28% for its biggest weekly
gain since April 2020.
President
Donald Trump on Friday demanded unconditional
surrender from Iran, raising fears of a prolonged war that could wreak
havoc on the global oil and gas market. The war has already brought traffic in
the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for energy supplies, to a near
standstill.
Qatar’s
energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, told The Financial Times on Friday that crude prices could
reach $150 per barrel in the coming weeks if oil tankers were unable to pass
through the Strait.
This
could “bring down the economies of the world,” Kaabi said.
“Everybody
that has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days
that this continues,” Kaabi told the FT. “All exporters in the Gulf region will
have to call force majeure. If they don’t, they are at some point going to pay
the liability for that legally, and that’s their choice.”
The
Trump administration on Friday announced a $20 billion insurance
program for oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, though the measure did
little to calm the crude market.
Iraq
has shut down 1.5 million barrels per day of production, two Iraqi officials
told Reuters Tuesday. Kuwait has also started cutting production after running
out of storage space, people familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal on Friday.
“The
market is shifting from pricing pure geopolitical risk to grappling with
tangible operational disruption,” Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities
research at JPMorgan, told clients in a Friday note.
Production
cuts could approach 6 million bpd by the end of next week if the Strait is not
open to traffic, Kaneva said. JPMorgan expects the United Arab Emirates to show
supply constraints next week.
The
average price for a gallon of regular gasoline jumped nearly
27 cents in the last week through Thursday to $3.25, according to
data from U.S. travel organization AAA
The
war between Iran and the U.S. entered its seventh day on Friday. In a press
conference on Thursday, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the U.S. had
“only just begun to fight.”
“Iran
is hoping that we cannot sustain this, which is a really bad miscalculation,”
he told reporters.
Oil
surges 35% this week for biggest gain in futures trading history
Dow
falls 450 points, posts worst week in nearly a year as oil tops $90, jobs data
disappoints: Live updates
Updated
Fri, Mar 6 2026 5:39 PM EST
Stocks
fell Friday, adding to their weekly declines, as oil prices spiked and traders
reacted to an unexpected
drop in new U.S. jobs data.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
453.19 points, or 0.95%, to end at 47,501.55. It was down close to 950 points,
or almost 2%, at its low of the day. The S&P 500 fell 1.33% and settled at
6,740.02. Nasdaq Composite dropped
1.59% and closed at 22,387.68. The two had shed 1.7% and 1.9%, respectively, at
their nadirs.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil
broke above
$90 per barrel and ended the week with a 35% gain — its biggest since
oil futures trading began in 1983 — as investors weighed the impact of the
U.S.-Iran war on global energy supply. Oil surged Friday after President Donald Trump said in a Truth
Social post that there won’t be a deal to end the U.S.-Iran war without an
“unconditional surrender” from the Middle Eastern country.
Qatar’s
energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, told the Financial Times that Gulf energy producers may need to
call force majeure in the coming days, shutting down production in a move that
could send oil to $150 a barrel. The conflict in the Middle East could “bring
down the economies of the world,” he warned.
“I’m
very cautious,” said Wharton professor emeritus Jeremy Siegel on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” “If we don’t get
some breakthrough over the weekend, I think we’ll see $100 oil next week.”
The
bands between the high end and the low end of oil prices “have widened out
significantly,” according to Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at Argent
Capital Management. Even if you haircut al-Kaabi’s $150-a-barrel projection by
20%, prices are still at levels that are “scary as hell,” he added.
“If
I’m a trader ... I’m not real pumped about owning a bunch of economically
sensitive stocks through a weekend at war with Iran, with President Trump’s
volatility and unpredictability,” Ellerbroek said. “I think the longer this
goes on, the more it will seep into stock market behavior.”
Shares
of Royal Caribbean, which
tumbled more than 10% this week amid increasing fuel costs, fell again on
Friday, dropping 1%. Caterpillar shares,
which also suffered this week, were down more than 3% at the end of the
session.
Equities
were also bogged down by the latest jobs data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported that nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February, a sharp contrast
from the downwardly revised January gain of 126,000 and far below the growth of
50,000 that economists polled by Dow Jones expected for the month. The
unemployment rate also rose to 4.4% from 4.3%.
“The
headline number was very disappointing and will feed worries that the labor
market — despite the strong January jobs report — is softening,” said Tim
Holland, chief investment officer at Orion. “With energy prices moving higher
of late, we wouldn’t be surprised to hear some talk on Wall Street of
stagflation — that toxic ’70s mix of slowing growth and rising inflation.”
This
week, the S&P 500 shed 2%, while the 30-stock Dow fell 3%. The tech-heavy
Nasdaq lost 1.2%.
Stock
market news for March 6, 2026
Europe faces a ‘massive’ gas price shock from
Iran war — and these three sectors will be hit hardest
Published Fri, Mar 6 2026 7:26 AM EST
As commodity prices spiked higher on Friday
morning, a strategist warned that Europe was even more at risk of an energy
shock than the U.S.
Speaking with CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition”,
Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Panmure Liberum, noted that Europe now
sources most of its natural gas from Qatar, one of the world’s biggest
producers of LNG.
As the war in the Middle East entered its
seventh day, the Strait of Hormuz — a critical supply route which handles about
one-fifth of global oil and gas — is now effectively closed to all shipping due
to the continued threat of Iranian strikes.
That’s bad news for Europe’s most
energy-intensive industries, namely autos, chemicals and industrials, Klement
said.
“We are now facing the very risky situation
where our natural gas storage is close to empty because of a cold winter, and
being at the end of the winter time, and supplies from Qatar are being
reduced,” he said.
“That gives us a massive risk of a natural
gas spike in Europe, which would obviously be very bad for energy-intensive
industries like the chemicals business, the industrials and the automotive
sector.”
The Stoxx Europe 600 Automobiles & Parts
Index slipped 0.7% on Friday, and has now fallen more 8% this week following
the outbreak of the war in the Middle East last weekend.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Chemicals benchmark is
6.3% lower on the week, having shed 0.9% on Friday. Industrials, meanwhile,
have lost 4.7% since the conflict began.
Energy prices have soared as the escalating conflict between the
U.S., Israel and its allies and Iran has disrupted global
supply chains.
Dutch
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) futures,
Europe’s benchmark gas contract, were trading at 52.33 euros per megawatt-hour
on Friday. That’s lower than the 63.75 euros seen earlier in the week, though
LNG remains on course for its biggest weekly rise since February 2022 following
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. TTF stood at 31.96 euros per MWh on Feb. 27, the
day before the conflict began.
Meanwhile, Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, resumed its rally Friday
morning, advancing 4.5% to reach $89.25 — a new 52-week high. In the U.S.,
prices of West Texas
Intermediate were last seen 6.2% in early
dealmaking, reaching $84.53.
QatarEnergy earlier halted production of LNG
after Iranian drones hit the state-owned producer’s Ras Laffan and Mesaieed
Industrial City facilities, a move which knocked out about 19% of near-term
global LNG supply.
“Europe, unfortunately, is even more
vulnerable to this energy shock than the U.S.,” Klement said. “It’s less
because of oil, but because we get most of our natural gas these days from
Qatar.”
Europe faces gas
price shock from Iran war — hitting these sectors
Maersk, a bellwether for global trade,
suspends two key shipping services due to Iran war
Published Fri, Mar 6 2026 4:24 AM EST
Danish shipping giant Maersk on Friday
temporarily suspended two services linking the Middle East to Asia and Europe
as the Iran war continues to disrupt global supply
chains.
The company, widely regarded as a barometer
of global trade, said the decision to halt the FM1 service, connecting
the Far East to the Middle East, and the ME11 Service, linking the Middle East
to Europe, was a precautionary measure to ensure the safety of its personnel
and vessels.
It comes as the U.S. and Israeli-led war on
Iran enters its seventh day, with the expanding conflict resulting in the effective halt of
shipping traffic through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
The waterway is a key, narrow
maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the
Gulf of Oman. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas typically passes through it.
Container shipping giants, however, have
suspended operations through the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S. and Israel
launched attacks on Iran on Feb. 28 and rerouted vessels around the southern
tip of Africa.
The crisis has left 147 container ships
sheltering in the Persian Gulf, according to freight analytics firm Xeneta,
prompting delays, port congestion, and freight rate
increases that are rippling across global
markets.
Alongside the changes to the FM1 service and
the ME11 service, Maersk said its shuttle services in the Persian Gulf region
were suspended until further notice.
The ME1 service connecting the Middle East to
northern Europe will temporarily drop the call in Jebel Ali, a major port city
in the United Arab Emirates, Maersk said, and continue to call India and Oman.
Shares of Maersk were last seen 0.6% lower.
Shipping giant
Maersk halts two key shipping services due to Iran war
Here’s how the U.S.-Iran war is already
hitting consumers’ pocketbooks
Published Fri, Mar 6 2026 7:37 AM EST
While the U.S. war with Iran is playing out thousands of miles away, American
consumers are already feeling financial ripple effects.
The U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran over the
weekend gave way to a week with topsy-turvy markets, spiking mortgage rates and
higher prices at the pump. These changes can drag on already-lackluster
consumer sentiment while further elevating affordability as a leading political
issue.
“Wars are never good for consumer sentiment,”
said Mark Brennan, an associate professor at New York University’s Stern School
of Business. “They might be good for munitions, manufacturers and lobbyists and
all these clowns, but not good for the average consumer.”
An average gallon of gas in the U.S. hit
$3.25 on Thursday, according to AAA. The one-week jump of 27 cents is similar to what was
seen during the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the
organization said.
Gas’ 8.5% increase over three days is the
largest since Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans in 2008, according to
an analysis from Bespoke Investment Group.
With Friday’s jump in
oil prices, gas prices are set to climb even further.
Gasoline futures trading in New York were up another 2% on Friday.
To be sure, consumers had been feeling some
relief on oil prices before this week’s shock. The average price of a gallon
fell to its lowest level since
2021 late last year, according to AAA.
Mortgage rates climbing
The 30-year mortgage rate jumped above 6.1%
this week, according to Mortgage News
Daily. The popular fixed-rate loan had previously
traded below 6%, which was around multiyear lows.
Mortgage rates broadly track the 10-year Treasury yield, which climbed back above 4% this week in the wake of the attack on Iran.
Higher oil prices are raising concerns in the bond market about inflation
revving back up, driving yields higher.
Stocks whipsawed this week, which can add to
uncertainty felt by consumers who either actively trade stocks or have exposure
to the market by way of retirement plans.
----If U.S. crude prices climb above $100 per barrel, a global
recession could ensue,
according to Dan Niles. But such a scenario isn’t likely to play out, the
founder of Niles Investment Management said in an interview on CNBC’s “Power Lunch,” as he anticipates the conflict will
only last about a month.
These ripple effects can intensify the woes Americans have been feeling since runaway inflation seen during the pandemic weakened their financial
footing. Consumer sentiment has tumbled near record lows in recent months, according to the University of
Michigan’s closely followed Surveys of Consumers.
Even before the war rattled markets,
growing economic
inequality and the high cost of
living had already made affordability a
political buzzword this year as Americans head
The U.S.-Iran war is already hitting consumers' pocketbooks. Here's how
BlackRock
Slashes Another Private Loan Value From 100 To Zero
March
5, 2026
BlackRock
Inc. slashed
the value of a private loan to zero just three months after assessing it at 100
cents on the dollar, marking the second sudden wipeout to recently hit its
private-credit division.
The
roughly $25 million loan to Infinite Commerce Holdings, a so-called Amazon
aggregator that buys up online sellers of products from spa treatments to light
bulbs, is now worthless, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. reported in
fourth-quarter filings released last week. The fund
had marked the junior debt at 100 cents on the dollar in the third quarter.
A
representative for BlackRock declined to comment. A spokesperson for Infinite
Commerce wasn’t immediately available.
While
a small loan in a troubled niche, its abrupt markdown highlights what critics
describe as a key
fault line in
private credit: the lag between valuations on illiquid loans and the
deteriorating performance of the companies behind them. Zips Car Wash was
valued near
par by its private credit backers in the months before it sought bankruptcy
protection. And in November, BlackRock TCP slashed
the full value of loans it extended to Renovo Home Partners, a
struggling home improvement company.
The
write-off comes just months after Infinite Commerce merged
with another
aggregator and BlackRock debtor, Razor Group, in August, creating the new debt
structure valued at par. Previously, BlackRock had valued loans to Razor at a
deeply distressed level.
Like
other private credit lenders, BlackRock is contending with a sharp reversal for
Amazon aggregators which boomed during the Covid-19 pandemic as online shopping
proliferated. More recently, the industry has become known for debt
restructurings.
Another
lender to Infinite Commerce, Victory Park, fully wrote off its position as of
Dec. 31, according to filings, blaming poor performance on
depressed demand and higher inventory costs from tariffs. A Victory Park
representative didn’t respond to a request for comment.
BlackRock
TCP also partially wrote down its position in SellerX, according to the
fourth-quarter filing. The fund cut its dividend
to 17 cents a share from 25 cents last week, causing shares to tumble.
BlackRock
TCP said in its filing that 91% of valuation cuts across the portfolio stemmed
from deals it underwrote in 2021 or earlier that have become challenged by
“sustained higher interest rates.”
The
moves add to mounting
concerns over
defaults and underwriting standards in the $1.8 trillion private credit market.
The industry’s huge bet on software companies threatened by AI has led to
unprecedented redemption demands by jittery investors. Blackstone Inc.
announced on Monday it would allow investors to redeem
a record 7.9% of
shares from its flagship private credit fund.
Still,
top private credit lenders continue to post strong relative returns.
Underscoring
the debate about the
market’s future, Apollo Global
Management Inc. Chief
Executive Officer Marc Rowan warned that a shakeout is coming for
private credit firms. That same day Ares Management Corp.’s Chief Executive
Officer Mike Arougheti said a forecast last week from UBS Group AG
analysts that private credit default rates could reach 15% was “absolutely
wrong.”
BlackRock Slashes
Another Private Loan Value From 100 To Zero
In
other news, did Trump just bailout/takeover Lloyds of London shipping War Risk
danger? Does he even have the legal
authority to do it?
Trump’s escort announcement met with scepticism as
traffic trickles through Strait of Hormuz
- Industry
awaits further details of Trump’s plan to guarantee energy flows through
the Strait of Hormuz
- Two
shipowners with tankers in the Middle East Gulf tell Lloyd’s List that
escorts would not tempt them to send vessels through the strait
- Ship
escorts likely to begin only ‘initial phase’ until hostilities pass and
Iran’s capabilities to attack vessels is degraded further, analyst says
- Four vessels tracked sailing through the strait on March 3, two with AIS off
04 Mar 2026
Analysis
President Trump’s announced plan to escort
ships through the Strait of Hormuz and provide war risk insurance has been met
with scepticism by the shipping industry, which is awaiting further details.
Meanwhile a limited number of vessels, mainly Greek-owned, are continuing to
pass through the strait
DATA ANALYSISSource: Win McNamee /
Getty ImagesUS President Donald Trump on Tuesday said the US will escort
ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
THE prospect of US naval escorts and
state-backed war risk insurance has been greeted across the shipping and
insurance sectors with scepticism and confusion as traders await further
details of US President Donald Trump’s plan to guarantee the free flow of
energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
In the absence of any detail, insurers
remain unconvinced that Trump’s plan for the US Development Finance Corporation
to provide guarantees “at a very reasonable price... for the Financial Security
of ALL Maritime Trade, especially energy, traveling through the Gulf” offered
any immediate change to the market.
Despite several requests for information,
London insurers remain unclear how the proposal might work in practice and
whether it could help bring down prices, but as one senior figure described it
“it is not currently being factored into the market”.
Meanwhile, Trump’s announcement on Tuesday
evening that “if necessary, the US Navy will begin escorting tankers through
the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible” is yet to be followed up with any
detail. Initial conversations between shipping industry officials and
operational naval personnel suggest that escorts would not be immediately
available, despite Trump’s social media pledge.
Two shipowners with tankers currently
stuck inside the MEG told Lloyd’s List that escorts would not tempt them
through while combat operations were still taking place.
While naval escorts could help reduce the
threat for the ships being protected, providing protection for all tankers
operating in areas threatened by Iran is widely regarded by industry and
insurance sources as unrealistic given that this would require a very high
number of warships and other military assets.
Trump
announced his escort plans in a social media post on Tuesday, less than 24
hours after industry officials were told by the US Navy that there was “no
chance” of such escorts materialising.
More
How Quickly Can Qatar Restart the World’s Largest
LNG Export Hub?
By Alex Kimani - Mar 05,
2026, 7:00 PM CST
- QatarEnergy
has declared force majeure on LNG exports after shipping through the
Strait of Hormuz halted.
- Restarting
LNG production could take weeks or months, as plants must shut down when
storage fills and require a slow, sequential restart process to avoid
damaging cryogenic equipment.
- Global gas markets face a significant supply shock, with European and Asian prices surging nearly 50%, while U.S. LNG exports have little spare capacity to replace the lost Qatari supply
QatarEnergy declared force majeure on
liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports on Wednesday, following disruptions at
its Ras
Laffan industrial city facilities caused by the Middle East
conflict. This legal declaration effectively releases the state-owned
company from contractual delivery obligations due to extraordinary
circumstances beyond its control. The shutdown was triggered by a near-complete
halt of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with
Iran. Qatar accounts for 20% of global LNG
exports,
primarily serving Asian markets including China, Japan, India and South Korea
as well as Europe.
Unfortunately for gas customers, it could
take months before the giant LNG plant returns to normal production.
---- The situation is exacerbated by the slow process of
re-opening giant LNG plants once shut down.
Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City serves
as the primary hub for the country's massive LNG operations, and is home to the
world's LNG export complex. The city’s LNG plant features 14 LNG trains with a
production capacity of approximately 77 million metric
tonnes per year (mtpa).
The city’s port has six LNG berths, designed to accommodate the world's largest
LNG carriers, including QMax and QFlex vessels. The plant’s storage tanks have
a capacity of ~1,880,000 cubic meters, with additional storage tanks and berths
currently being built to handle up to 126 million tonnes per year by 2027. The
plant’s current storage takes only 4
days to
fill up at full production rates, forcing production to rapidly come to a halt
whenever export vessels cannot leave. Once the restart process begins, it will
take another two weeks for the facility to reach full operational capacity.
Restarting is intentionally slow to avoid
"thermal shock" to critical, sub-zero cryogenic equipment. LNG
production involves extremely low temperatures (-160 °C or -260 F). Rapidly
introducing feed gas into cold, idle equipment can cause severe stress,
damaging or rupturing vital, expensive components. Additionally, trains cannot
restart simultaneously; they must be brought back online sequentially to ensure
stability.
And, all this means that global gas
markets will be in a significant deficit for several weeks, at the very least.
The halt in Qatari LNG production due to security concerns in the Strait of
Hormuz has intensified competition between Atlantic and Pacific basins, sending
European (TTF) and Asian gas prices up by nearly 50%.
"Nothing can replace Qatari LNG.
If the shutdown is prolonged, it portends a larger gas market shock than in
2022 when Russian turned off pipeline gas to Europe. Gas prices could retest
their record highs set in 2022," Saul Kavonic, head of energy research
at MST Marquee, told Reuters.
Unfortunately, the United States, the
world’s largest LNG producer, has little immediate spare export capacity to
offset major supply disruptions, with only ~ 5% of additional volume available.
U.S. LNG export plants are currently running near full capacity, with most
production locked in long-term contracts. However, several major LNG export plants are under
construction in the U.S. Gulf Coast region, targeting significant capacity
increases by 2030. Key active projects include the massive Plaquemines LNG
(Louisiana), Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 (Texas), Golden Pass LNG
(Texas), Rio Grande LNG (Texas), Port Arthur LNG (Texas), and the newly
initiated Louisiana LNG project. Together, these LNG plants will add over 65
million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of nominal LNG capacity, or roughly 60% of the
country’s current capacity.
How Quickly Can
Qatar Restart the World’s Largest LNG Export Hub? | OilPrice.com
Iran war pushes Middle East oil tanker rates to
all-time high
March 4, 2026
The freight rate for a supertanker
carrying crude oil on the key Middle East-to-China route hit a record high of
more than $420,000 per day on Monday as the war in the Middle East disrupts the
world’s busiest and most important shipping lane, the Strait of
Hormuz.
The daily rate for hiring a very large
crude carrier (VLCC), which is capable of shipping about 2 million barrels of
crude, hit an all-time high of $423,736 on Monday, according to Baltic
Exchange’s so-called TD3C
MEG-China index.
The tanker rates for all other trade
routes and tanker types are also soaring as the Strait
of Hormuz is
effectively closed with companies and shippers diverting vessels or idling in
waters near the vital oil and gas shipping lane. Oil and LNG tanker traffic is
now halted through the narrow lane between Iran and Oman, where a fifth of
global oil and LNG flows pass.
More
Iran war pushes
Middle East oil tanker rates to all-time high
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Risks
to Western aluminium supply rise as US-Israeli war with Iran escalates
Taken
together, that makes GCC producers a core component of Western supply of a
metal used across a wide spectrum of industries from automotive and
construction to packaging.
Reuters/London Thu, March 5, 2026
It
is not just oil and gas that flow through the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf's key
shipping choke point now threatened by the United States-Israeli war with Iran.
The region is also a significant producer of aluminum, accounting for over 8
percent of global output last year, according to the International Aluminium
Institute (IAI). Over 5 million metric tonnes of metal are shipped through the
Hormuz Strait each year by smelters in Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the
United Arab Emirates. Huge amounts of bauxite and alumina travel the other way
to feed the smelters. None of these plants has yet been directly targeted in
the escalating hostilities. But Qatar Aluminium, jointly owned by Norway's
Norsk Hydro and QatarEnergy, already faces possible closure because power
supplies have been hit by the halt to the country's liquefied natural gas
production. The longer the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, the greater the threat
to Western manufacturers.
The Middle East has emerged as a major aluminum production hub over the last
two decades, leveraging the region's huge gas reserves to power the
energy-intensive smelting process.
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) output grew from 2.7 million tonnes in 2010 to
6.2 million tonnes in 2025, making it the second-largest regional
supplier outside of China. But that is actually the largest regional supplier,
as the IAI's production figures for Europe, the largest regional non-Chinese
production hub on paper, include some 4 million tonnes of annual Russian metal.
However, Russian aluminum cannot be imported to the US due to Ukraine sanctions
and the European Union is phasing out imports this year for the same reason.
Taken together, that makes GCC producers a core component of Western supply of
a metal used across a wide spectrum of industries from automotive and
construction to packaging. The potential impact on Western buyers runs down
multiple channels. Gulf smelters do not just export primary aluminum. They are
also major producers of bespoke alloys and feed local clusters of
semi-manufactured product plants. Bahrain, which hosts a 1.5 million-tonne
capacity smelter, exported over 1 million tonnes of alloy, 500,000 tonnes
of products and 160,000 tonnes of virgin metal last year, according to the
World Bureau of Metal Statistics, which uses official customs data. Exports flowed
to 70 different countries, including significant quantities to Europe and the
US.
The diversity of product and destination means that any protracted halt to
either regional production or export flows would hit multiple countries and
multiple parts of the processing chain. The aluminum market is as vulnerable as
it has been for many years to such supply disruption.
more
Risks to Western
aluminium supply rise as US-Israeli war with Iran escalates - Academia - The
Jakarta Post
Trump’s War on Iran Could Screw Over US Farmers
The Middle East supplies a huge amount of the
world’s fertilizer. Conflict in the region has sent prices soaring ahead of the
critical spring planting season.
Mar 4, 2026 2:08 PM
Global oil and gas prices have skyrocketed following
the US attack on Iran last weekend. But
another key global supply chain is also at risk, one that may directly impact
American farmers who have already been squeezed for months by tariff wars. The
conflict in the Middle East is choking global supplies of fertilizer
right before the crucial spring planting season.
Potash and phosphates are both mined from different
kinds of natural deposits; nitrogen fertilizers, by contrast, are produced with
natural gas. QatarLNG, a subsidiary of Qatar Energy, a state-run oil and gas
company, said on Monday that it would halt production following drone strikes
on some of its facilities. This effectively took nearly a fifth of the world’s
natural gas supply offline, causing gas prices in Europe to spike.
That shutdown puts supplies of urea, a popular type
of nitrogen fertilizer, particularly at risk. On Tuesday, Qatar Energy said
that it would also stop production of downstream products, including urea. Qatar was the second-largest exporter of urea in 2024.
(Iran was the third-largest; it’s also a key exporter of ammonia, another type
of nitrogen fertilizer.) Prices on urea sold in the US out of New Orleans, a
key commodity port, were up nearly 15 percent on Monday compared to prices last
week, according to data provided by Linville to WIRED. The blockage of the
Strait of Hormuz is also preventing other countries in the region from
exporting nitrogen products.
“When we look at ammonia, we're looking at almost
30 percent of global production being either involved or at risk in this
conflict,” says Veronica Nigh, a senior economist at the Fertilizer Institute,
a US-based industry advocacy organization. “It gets worse when we think about
urea. Urea is almost 50 percent.”
Other types of fertilizer are also at risk. Saudi
Arabia, Nigh says, supplies about 40 percent of all US phosphate imports;
taking them out of the equation for more than a few days could create “a really
challenging situation” for the US. Other countries in the region, including
Jordan, Egypt, and Israel, also play a big role in these markets.
“We are already hearing reports that some of those
Persian Gulf manufacturers are shutting down production, because they're
saying, ‘I have a finite amount of storage for my supply,’” Linville says.
“‘Once I reach the top of it, I can't do anything else. So I'm going to shut
down my production in order to make sure I don't go over above that.’"
Conflict in the strait has intensified in the early
part of this week, as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have reportedly
threatened any ship passing through the strait. Traffic has slowed to a crawl.
The Trump administration announced initiatives on Tuesday meant to protect oil
tankers traveling through the strait, including providing a naval escort. Even
if those initiatives succeed—which the shipping industry has expressed doubt about—much of the initial energy will probably go toward shepherding oil and
gas assets out of the region.
“Fertilizer is not going to be the most valuable
thing that's gonna transit the strait,” says Nigh.
More, subscription required.
Trump’s War on Iran Could Screw Over US Farmers | WIRED
Technology
Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Due to length this
weekend I’ll keep this section brief. Another week, another battery fire. Just
wait until most EV are 10 years old.
Firefighters rush to battery fire in Shrewsbury
garage
Fire crews responded to a fire in a garage
at a property in Shrewsbury this evening.
5 March 2026
Shropshire Fire Service
sent two appliances to an address on Whitty Close in Shrewsbury to tackle
the blaze, which is believed to have been started by a battery.
An update on the service's incident page detailed how
crews responded to a 'fire involving one small rechargeable Lithium Polymer
battery within a garage' at 4.23pm on Thursday, March 5.
Firefighters rush
to battery fire in Shrewsbury garage | Shropshire Star
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Exponent
Calculator
Enter
values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.
This
weekend’s music diversion. Another long forgotten great. Approx.12 minutes.
Antonín
Reichenauer Concerto for Oboe Bassoon Strings in B flat major
Antonín
Reichenauer Concerto for Oboe Bassoon Strings in B flat major
Next,
more fun with numbers. Approx.11 minutes.
163
and Ramanujan Constant - Numberphile
163 and Ramanujan
Constant - Numberphile
Finally, has our Black Hole been replaced by
dark matter? Does it matter anyway? Approx.
7 minutes.
Surprise! Milky Way Might Not Have a Black
Hole After All
Surprise! Milky
Way Might Not Have a Black Hole After All
Inflation makes the extension of socialism possible by providing
the financial chaos in which it flourishes. The fact is that socialism and
inflation are cause and effect, they feed on each other!
Henry Hazlitt
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