Baltic
Dry Index. 2242 +55 Brent Crude 82.92
Spot Gold 5169 Spot Silver 84.85
US 2 Year Yield 3.51 +0.04
US Federal Debt. 38.838 trillion
US GDP 31.205 trillion.
“It’s very tempting to spend more than you earn, it’s very understandable, but it’s not a good idea.”
Warren Buffett
As the unnecessary Israeli-Trump, global wealth destruction, war on Iran drags on with no discernible end in sight, the pace of global wealth destruction is rapidly picking up pace.
Coming next, a collapse in consumer confidence, a great slowdown in the velocity of money, oil and natural gas led inflation, rising global unemployment? The implosion of private credit?
And for what? Turning Tehran into another Gaza? Why?
Look away from the rising crude oil price and rising US interest rates now.
South Korea’s Kospi plunges 12% amid broader
declines in Asia markets as Iran conflict rages
Published Tue, Mar 3 2026 6:59 PM EST
South Korea’s Kospi plunged over 12%
Wednesday, before paring some losses, and extending a steep sell-off from the
previous session amid an escalating war in the Middle East.
The Korea Exchange temporarily halted
trading for the Kospi index on Wednesday. A circuit breaker was
activated on the Kosdaq as well, which fell about 13%.
The Kospi index was last down about 8%,
with heavyweights SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics fell more than 6% and over
9%, respectively.
The South Korean market had been on a tear
last year, soaring more than 75%, and extending gains into the new year as
well, with the Kospi hitting fresh highs on the back of semiconductor
heavyweights that have seen their shares surge on strong memory chip demand.
“The decline in the KOSPI can broadly be
attributable to the single-name concentration that we see in the Korean
markets,” said Lorraine Tan, Asia director of equity research at Morningstar.
According to Morningstar data, memory
leaders Samsung and SK Hynix constitute almost 50% of the index.
“We believe that the drop in share prices
is partly driven by profit taking after a strong runup amidst a risk-off
environment but also implies growing concern that the AI datacenter adoption
pace might slow due to its significantly higher energy costs than regular data
centers,” Tan said.
Additionally, South Korea’s stock market
is particularly sensitive to swings in oil prices, meaning geopolitical shocks
in the Middle East tend to trigger short-term volatility, said Daniel Yoo,
global market strategist at Yuanta Securities.
As a major oil importer, Korea’s
manufacturing-heavy economy is vulnerable to rising energy costs, which can
pressure industrial and export-oriented sectors when crude prices spike.
Yoo said the recent drop in the Kospi
should be viewed as a correction after a strong rally rather than a fundamental
shift in the market’s outlook, adding that stability was likely to return once
oil prices settle.
South Korea’s net oil imports are 2.7% of
its gross domestic product, with Nomura
flagging it among the most vulnerable to current account pressures.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 3.88%, while
the Topix declined 3.96%.
Investors in the region will also be
watching an annual parliamentary meeting by China’s policymakers that kicks off
later in the day.
The gathering, dubbed the “Two Sessions,” consists of a consultative congress
that will start later in the day, and a National People’s Congress due to open
Thursday. Chinese Premier Li Qiang is set to announce a series of economic
targets at the NPC, which had largely been decided
at a December meeting.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell over
2%. Hong Kong Hang Seng index lost
over 2.74%, while the mainland CSI 300 was down 1.61%.
China’s factory activity faltered in
February as manufacturers paused production and cargo shipments to celebrate an
extended holiday, an official survey showed on Wednesday.
The official manufacturing purchasing
managers index fell to 49 in February, according to the National Bureau of
Statistics, missing economists’ forecast for 49.1.
Oil prices extended
gains with U.S. crude futures up 0.5% at $74.93, while Brent rose
0.95% to $82.17 per barrel amid a widening conflict, with Iran attempting
to close the Strait of Hormuz.
A senior commander from Iran’s
Revolutionary Guard said on Monday that the critical artery had been shut and warned that any
vessel attempting to transit the waterway would be targeted, according to
Iranian media.
U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday
afternoon that the U.S. Navy will
escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, if necessary.
“No matter what, the United States will
ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD,” he said in a Truth Social post. “The United States’ ECONOMIC and
MILITARY MIGHT is the GREATEST ON EARTH — More actions to come.”
Prices of precious metals rose. Spot gold advanced 1.64% to $5,170
per ounce, while spot silver jumped
almost 3% to $84.49 per ounce.
Overnight in the U.S., socks [stocks?] had another
wild session as concerns around a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict rattled markets.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
403.51 points, or 0.83%, and ended at 48,501.27. The S&P 500 slipped 0.94% to close at
6,816.63, while the Nasdaq
Composite shed 1.02% to settle at 22,516.69. At their lows of the day,
the S&P 500 lost 2.5%, and the Nasdaq was down about 2.7%. The 30-stock Dow
was down more than 1,200 points, or around 2.6%, at its nadir.
Asia
markets: Hang Seng Index, Kospi, Nikkei 225
Stock futures fall as traders monitor latest
developments in U.S.-Iran war: Live updates
Updated Wed, Mar 4 2026 12:09 AM EST
Stock futures fell Tuesday night after a
volatile session for U.S. equities.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined
0.33%. S&P 500 futures lost
0.34%, while Nasdaq 100
futures dropped 0.45%.
Major stock averages closed the previous
session in the red, albeit far off of their lows of the day. The S&P 500 slipped about 0.34%, while
the Dow lost roughly
403 points, or 0.8%. At one point, the Dow Industrials fell more than 1,200
points. The Nasdaq Composite closed
down 1%.
Each of the S&P 500′s 11 sectors
closed lower. Materials was the worst-performing sector, dropping 2.7%,
followed by industrials, down nearly 2%. Investors throughout the session
weighed concerns about how rising oil prices could potentially affect the U.S.
economy and future monetary policy decisions.
President Donald Trump said
on Tuesday that the U.S. would provide risk insurance to all maritime trade through
the Persian Gulf, in an effort to get tankers moving through the Strait of
Hormuz. Tanker traffic through the Strait — the world’s most vital transit
route for crude oil — came to a halt after the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
commander threatened to set fire to ships attempting the route.
Brent crude oil futures settled
up 4.71%, while West Texas
Intermediate crude futures advanced 4.68%. Both ended Tuesday’s
trading off their session highs.
“Amid all the noise we might be seeing
some opportunities start to emerge in markets for longer term
investors, in our view, especially if we start to see energy prices stabilize
and potentially moderate in days and weeks ahead,” said James McCann, senior
economist at Edward Jones, in a note.
Heading into Wednesday, traders will be
watching the ADP private payrolls report. The Dow Jones consensus calls for
48,000 jobs added in February, up from 22,000 in
January.
On the earnings front, traders will look
for quarterly results from Abercrombie
& Fitch, Broadcom and Okta
Stock
market today: Live updates
Oil supertanker rates hit all-time high as
insurers drop war risk protection in the Middle East
Published Tue, Mar 3 2026 5:20 AM EST
Oil supertanker costs in the Middle East
climbed to their highest level on record as conflict between
the U.S. and Iran disrupts
shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
Major marine war risk providers have
started to scrap cover for vessels operating in the Persian Gulf as the fallout
from a sudden security shock hobbles key
shipping routes in
the region.
The benchmark freight rate for Very Large
Crude Carriers (VLCCs) — used to ship 2 million barrels of oil from the Middle
East to China — hit an all-time high of $423,736 per day on Monday, data from
LSEG showed. That marked an increase of more than 94% from Friday’s close.
Alongside a significant jump in oil and gas prices, the
stratospheric rise in the cost of hauling crude oil follows the U.S. and Israeli
attacks on Iran over
the weekend. The expanding conflict has resulted in the effective halt of
shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most
important oil choke points, located in the gulf between Oman and Iran.
An Iranian Revolutionary Guards senior
official said Monday that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed and warned any
vessel attempting to pass through the waterway would be attacked, state media
reported. The claim has since been disputed by the U.S. military’s Central
Command, CENTCOM, Fox News reported.
“Charterers in the VLCC segment stepped
back from the market and avoided securing vessels as multiple incidents have
led to increased threat levels around the strait of Hormuz, despite the
waterway not being officially closed,” Sheel Bhattacharjee, head of freight
pricing in Europe at Argus Media, told CNBC by email.
Oil producers in the Middle East have not
yet announced a halt to any production or loading yet, and ports in the UAE,
Oman and Kuwait remain operational, Bhattacharjee said, citing market sources.
“But most shipowners were avoiding
transits through the strait of Hormuz after insurers cancelled the war risk
coverage for vessels in certain areas of the region,” Bhattacharjee said.
It is estimated that roughly one-third of
seaborne crude oil trade moves through the strategically important waterway,
alongside 19% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows and 14% of global
refined products trade, according to Argus Media.
‘A double whammy’
Leading maritime insurers have canceled
war risk cover for vessels operating in the Middle East over recent days,
amid reports of attacks
on multiple ships traversing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Alongside the New York-based American Club, marine insurers
including Norway’s Gard
and Skuld,
Britain’s NorthStandard and
the London
P&I Club said
they were scrapping war risk cover for ships in the region.
Adrian Beciri, CEO of DUCAT Maritime, a
Cyprus-based logistics firm specializing in dry bulk, said the knock-on effects
of the sprawling Middle East conflict were being felt across the globe.
More
Iran: Oil
supertanker rates soar as insurers drop war risk protection
In other news, the oil pipelines out of the Gulf. A very little relief.
Around 20 per cent of the world’s oil
supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. On average, more than 20 million
barrels of crude oil, condensate and fuel moved through the strait every day
last year, news agency Reuters reported.
Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, sends almost all of its gas through this route.
Iraq- Turkey. (300,000 bpd.)
Kirkuk–Ceyhan Oil Pipeline
Kirkuk–Ceyhan Oil Pipeline - Wikipedia
Saudi Arabia east-west pipeline. (5 mbpd.)
East–West Crude Oil Pipeline
East–West
Crude Oil Pipeline - Wikipedia
UAE-Oman. (1.5 mbpd.)
Habshan–Fujairah oil pipeline
Habshan–Fujairah oil pipeline - Wikipedia
Of the three, only the Saudi east west pipeline really offers some relief.
“We must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt.”
Thomas Jefferson
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
“I could end the deficit in 5 minutes. You just pass a law that
says that anytime there is a deficit of more than 3% of GDP all sitting members
of congress are ineligible for re-election.”
Warren Buffett
Interest on the $38.8 trillion national debt has tripled since 2020, and
it already costs taxpayers more than defense and Medicaid
March 2, 2026, 4:45 PM ET
The United States is now
paying nearly $970 billion a year just to service the interest on its $38.8
trillion national debt—a figure that has nearly tripled since 2020 and already
exceeds what the federal government spends on national defense or Medicaid,
according to a February analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB).
For many Americans, the
number barely registers. But budget experts warn it represents one of the most
consequential—and least discussed—fiscal emergencies in the country’s history.
The rapid climb didn’t
happen overnight. Interest costs have surged owing to a one-two punch: The
federal debt load has ballooned by trillions, while interest rates climbed
sharply from near-zero post-pandemic lows. As a share of the economy, interest
costs have doubled from 1.6% of GDP in 2021 to a record 3.2% in 2025. Today,
the government already spends more on debt interest than on Medicaid or the
entire national defense budget, programs Americans viscerally feel and
politically fight over. Yet the interest line item draws comparatively little
outrage.
The $2 trillion threshold
The numbers ahead are
even more staggering. According to the Congressional Budget Office’s latest
baseline, net interest costs are projected to more than double again, from $970
billion in fiscal year 2025 to $2.1 trillion by 2036.
Between now and 2036,
debt held by the public is expected to grow by 86%, adding roughly $26
trillion, while the average interest rate on that debt will tick up another
half a percentage point. Together, they will drive interest costs up by 121%.
By 2036, interest
payments will consume one-quarter of all federal revenue, up from roughly
one-fifth today and just one-tenth back in 2021. Put another way: For every
four dollars the U.S. collects in taxes, one will go entirely toward paying
creditors—not roads, not veterans, not schools.
When Medicare gets passed
Right now, interest
spending sits roughly neck and neck with Medicare, one of the most popular and
politically untouchable programs in the federal budget. The CBO projects that
by 2029, net interest costs will officially surpass Medicare, making it the second-largest
government program, trailing only Social Security. That milestone is less than
four years away.
The trajectory doesn’t
stop there. By 2047, CBO projects interest costs will exceed even Social
Security spending, ascending to become the single largest line
item in the entire federal budget—larger than retirement income, larger
than health care for seniors, larger than the military.
A crowding-out crisis
The consequences extend
beyond accounting. As interest costs swell, they crowd out virtually every
other national priority. The CRFB projects that rising interest costs will
account for 28% of all nominal spending growth over the next decade
and 120% of all spending growth as a share of GDP, meaning other programs will
effectively shrink in relative terms just to make room.
The national debt
currently stands at approximately $38.77 trillion as of February, growing at
roughly $6.43 billion per day. At that pace, the U.S. is projected to hit $39
trillion by approximately April.
CRFB and other fiscal
watchdogs argue that a credible deficit reduction plan remains the only viable
off-ramp—one that would put debt on a sustainable path, ease pressure on
interest rates, and prevent the interest bill from ultimately devouring the
budget entirely. So far, Washington has not produced one.
For this story, Fortune journalists used generative AI as a
research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before
publishing.
Another shadow bank hit by sell-off as AI fears spread
3 March 2026
The world’s biggest “shadow bank” fund has been hit
by a record sell-off amid fears about the impact of AI on companies backed by private loans.
Blackstone’s private credit fund, known as Bcred,
saw investors pull $3.8bn (£2.9bn) in the last quarter – equivalent to 7.9pc of
its total shares.
The fund typically limits withdrawals to 5pc per
quarter, meaning that Blackstone – a “shadow bank” that acts like a lender but
is unregulated – has been forced to change its rules to meet the requests.
Bcred is the world’s largest private credit fund with $82bn of assets under
management.
The move highlights investors’ heightened fears
about the impact of AI on the tech companies the fund has lent to.
Software companies have been heavily backed by
private credit funds in recent years, but the rise of Anthropic’s Claude and ChatGPT has raised
questions about their future.
That poses questions for private credit lenders,
who must ensure the companies they lend to are viable enough to repay the
loans.
Shareholders in a fund focused on technology
managed by Blue Owl, another major player in private credit, redeemed shares
worth about 15pc of its net assets in its most recent quarter.
Another fund managed by Blue Owl opted to halt
quarterly redemptions and started selling assets to return capital to
investors.
Blackstone said it would meet requests by
increasing its redemption limit to 7pc of the fund’s total shares. To make up
the rest, the private equity firm, alongside employees, will offset the
remaining 0.9pc.
Lloyd Blankfein, who led Goldman Sachs through the
2008 financial crash, said this week that he saw parallels between the boom in
private credit and the global financial crisis.
“I wonder where there’s hidden secret leverage,” he
said.
More
Another
shadow bank hit by sell-off as AI fears spread
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Scientists
just turned light into a remote control for crystals
Scientists at
NYU have developed a method to control crystal formation using light.
Date: March 2, 2026
Source: New York University
Summary:
NYU researchers have found a way to use
light to control how microscopic particles assemble into crystals, effectively
turning illumination into a tool for shaping matter. By adding light-sensitive
molecules to a liquid filled with tiny particles, they can adjust how strongly
the particles attract or repel one another simply by changing the light’s
intensity or pattern. This allows them to trigger crystals to form, dissolve,
or even be reshaped in real time.
Scientists at NYU have developed a way
to use light to guide how microscopic particles arrange themselves into
crystals. The work, reported in the Cell Press journal Chem,
describes a straightforward and reversible technique for building crystals that
could support the creation of a new class of responsive, adaptable materials.
Crystals appear everywhere in nature and
technology, from snowflakes and diamonds to the silicon inside electronic
devices. At their core, crystals consist of particles organized in precise,
repeating patterns. To better understand how these structures emerge,
researchers often study colloidal particles, which are tiny spheres suspended
in liquid that naturally assemble into ordered arrangements known as colloidal
crystals. These particles also serve as key components in advanced materials
used in optical and photonic applications such as sensors and lasers.
Although crystals are common and highly
useful, controlling exactly how and when they form has remained a major
obstacle.
"The challenge in the field has
been control: crystals usually form where and when they want, and once
conditions are set, you have limited ability to adjust the process in real
time," said study author Stefano Sacanna, professor of chemistry at NYU.
Using Photoacids to Control Particle Interactions
In their Chem study, the team identified
a surprisingly simple method for directing crystal formation: shining light on
the system.
The researchers introduced light
sensitive molecules known as photoacids into a liquid containing colloidal
particles. When exposed to light, these photoacids briefly become more acidic.
That change affects how they interact with the surfaces of the particles,
altering the particles' electric charge. By modifying the charge, the
scientists can control whether the particles pull together and stick or push
apart and separate.
"Essentially, we used light as a
remote control to program how matter organizes itself at the microscale,"
said Sacanna.
----
Toward Light Programmable Materials
This advance points toward materials
whose internal structure, and therefore their properties, can be tuned using
light. For example, photonic materials could have their color or optical
response written, erased, and rewritten on demand. Light programmable colloidal
crystals may eventually enable reconfigurable optical coatings, adaptive
sensors, and next generation display and data storage technologies, where
patterns and functions are defined dynamically by illumination rather than
fixed during manufacturing.
"Our approach brings us closer to
dynamic, programmable colloidal materials that can be reconfigured on
demand," said study author Glen Hocky, associate professor of chemistry
and a faculty member at the Simons Center for Computational Physical Chemistry
at NYU. "This system also allows us to test a number of predictions on how
self-assembly should behave when interactions between particles or molecules
are changing across space or time."
Scientists just turned light into a remote control for crystals |
ScienceDaily
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
“Creditors have better memories than debtors.”
Benjamin Franklin
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