Baltic
Dry Index. 2024 -14 Brent Crude 100.98
Spot Gold 5003 Spot Silver 79.58
US 2 Year Yield 3.68 unch.
US Federal Debt. 39.003 trillion
US GDP 31.246 trillion.
Military men are just dumb, stupid animals to be used as pawns in foreign policy.
Henry A. Kissinger
6:00 AM Update
Did President Trump get played for Israel’s patsy, blindsided into America’s “Suez 1956,” Emperor has no clothes moment.
We in the west can only hope that isn’t so, but across the Middle East, Asia, and most of the rest of the world, Trump’s reckless war with no end plan in sight, looks very different.
Even in NATO Europe, no one is willing to join in Trump’s folly.
Unfortunately, the longer the Great Global Economic Disruption goes on, the likelihood of a Great Global Economic Crash rises.
A crash in a fiat currency world, with the USA officially at 39 trillion in unrepayable debt. (Who knows what the USA fiat dollar debt figure really is.)
The Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money is now under real threat.
One year ago, silver, the poor man’s gold was priced at about 34 USD/oz. Today it’s priced at about 80 USD. Next year? It probably depends on how Trump’s folly ends.
Below, a global economy flirting with Great Depression 2.0. Coming next, “every man for himself?”
European Leaders Are Saying ‘No’ to Trump and the
War in Iran
NATO allies are declining to get involved
in the US-Israel war, and a US counterterrorism resigns over the conflict.
March 17, 2026 at 9:53 PM GMT
Europe is learning how to say “no” to
Donald Trump over the US-Israel war with Iran.
Nearly three weeks into the expanding
conflict, leaders from Germany, Greece and Norway have stopped equivocating and
started outright telling the US president they
won’t help in his campaign with Israel against the Islamic Republic.
“The simple answer is no,” Greek Prime
Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said at a Bloomberg event in Athens on Tuesday.
It’s a notable change since the start of the war, when European leaders evaded
questions about international law and heaped scorn on the Iranian government.
Canada also made clear on Tuesday that it
has no
intention of joining offensive military actions against Iran. Foreign
Minister Anita Anand said Canada’s priority is to find a path toward
de-escalation and to protect civilian lives, but did not rule out the
possibility of contributing to efforts aimed at freeing up traffic in the
Strait of Hormuz, should allies ultimately agree on a response.
Trump, 79, lashed
out against longtime US allies who’ve rejected his appeals for help,
specifically denouncing NATO for making what the Republican called a “foolish
mistake.” European and alliance officials have noted the US and Israel began
the war, and that even if they chose to help, additional military assets might
not have any effect.
“I wonder what is Trump expecting from a
handful of European frigates which the mighty
US Navy cannot achieve there on its own,” German Defense
Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters in Berlin.
Trump’s open frustration illustrates the
costs of his go-it-alone approach as the conflict wears on. Oil has continued
to hover
around $100 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains all but
impassable. —Jordan
Parker Erb
Hormuz Reopening Looks Unlikely Without a
Ceasefire
Trump is desperate to reopen the Strait of
Hormuz to ease a growing global energy crisis sparked by the US-Israeli attack
on Iran. He won’t achieve that easily without a ceasefire.
Joe Kent, a top
counterterrorism official and a hard-right Republican, resigned
over the war with Iran, claiming that Israel had misled Trump into
believing the government in Tehran posed an imminent threat to America.
Kent, the director of the National
Counterterrorism Center, said he could not support “sending the next generation
off to fight and die in a war that serves no benefit to the American people.”
His resignation highlights the deepening divisions among Trump’s followers over
the Iran war.
European
Leaders Say ‘No’ to Trump: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
U.S. counterterrorism director Joe Kent resigns
over war: ‘Iran posed no imminent threat’
Published Tue, Mar 17 2026 10:14 AM EDT
National
Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent on Tuesday announced he will
resign in response to the Trump administration’s war against Iran.
“I cannot in good conscience support the
ongoing war,” Kent said in a letter addressed to President Donald Trump, that was posted on Kent’s personal X
account.
Kent, a promoter of far-right conspiracy
theories whom
the Senate narrowly confirmed for the director role last July, accused the
president of being deceived by Israel into supporting the war.
“Iran posed no imminent threat to our
nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel
and its powerful American lobby,” Kent wrote in his letter.
The White House and the National
Counterterrorism Center did not immediately respond to CNBC’s requests for
comment.
The director of the NCTC leads U.S.
counterterrorism and counternarcotics efforts and advises the president
directly. An hour after Kent announced his resignation, he was still listed as
the center’s director on its official government website.
The NCTC is housed within the Office of
the Director of National Intelligence, led by Tulsi Gabbard, a once-vocal
opponent of war with Iran who has kept quiet on the Trump administration’s
latest military actions.
The ODNI did not immediately respond to a
request for comment.
U.S. counterterrorism director Joe Kent resigns over Iran war
See: London Irvine Report: A Rare Sunday Update. Depravity. Unfit For Office.
How countries are cutting deals with Iran to move
oil through Hormuz
17 March 2026
After two weeks of turmoil and violence in
the Strait
of Hormuz,
an international cargo ship has transited safely through
the Iranian waterway with its tracker turned on in what experts described
as a major breakthrough.
The Pakistan-flagged Karachi
ship, also known as the Lorax, became the first non-Iranian vessel to pass
through the Strait with its Automatic Identification System (AIS) signal turned
off on Sunday afternoon.
Hundreds of ships are trapped in the Gulf
after Iran claimed
complete control over the Strait, days after the US and Israel declared war and
assassinated supreme leader Ali Khamenei. At least 16 ships have been attacked
in the Gulf since the war started on 28 February, according to the UK Maritime
Trade Organisation (UKMTO).
The Strait of Hormuz in particular is
considered to be one of the world’s most valuable shipping routes, with 20
million barrels of oil passing through it each day.
But experts have suggested that Tehran may
be loosening its iron grip on the Strait for countries who are willing to
negotiate, with certain vessels seemingly granted safe passage through
diplomacy.
Matthew Wright, a freight analyst from
global trade firm Kpler, told The Independent: “This is Iran’s
widening strategy.
“The amount of control Iran has over the
waterway is significant. And they've been able to move their own cargoes pretty
comfortably over the last two weeks. Now they are selectively managing oil
flows through that checkpoint. At the moment, it appears to be friendly Asian
partners.
“But what's significant is we don't expect
this to be a trend that they can expand more broadly without undermining the
pressure that they're able to keep on oil prices.”
Iran is reported to have asked India to
release three tankers seized in February following negotiations over the safe
passage of India-bound vessels out of the Strait, according to Reuters.
Indian authorities seized the Iran-linked
ships near Indian waters, alleging they had concealed or altered their
identities and were involved in illegal ship-to-ship transfers at sea.
Meanwhile, Iraq's oil minister said
Baghdad is in contact with Iran to allow some oil tankers to pass through
the Strait of Hormuz, the state news agency reported on Tuesday.
What do we know about the Karachi oil
tanker?
The Lorax, a Pakistan-flagged ship
carrying a crude blend called DAS from Abu Dhabi, had its AIS on to transit the
Strait, according to Mr Wright.
“We don't have confirmation, but it does
suggest that this vessel was probably asked to keep its AIS on and was probably
guided by Iran through the Strait,” he said. “We can only speculate as to why
that necessarily happened, but it could be so that they can ensure the vessel's
safety.”
The Lorax took an unusual route out of the
Strait. Typically tankers are forced to tackle a hairpin bend, but the ship
went north around the small island of Larak on the Iranian side before exiting.
Mr Wright added that this could have been
directed as the safest route out of the Strait.
“There's been a lot of discussion about
some of the waters being mined,” he added. “Nobody has, as far as I'm aware,
got definitive proof that the strait has been mined. But this transit is an
interesting one.”
What other ships have successfully crossed
out of the Strait?
At least 20 non-Iranian oil ships have
exited the Strait since the war began, according to Kpler. The vast majority of
these ships have had their AIS switched off, which is used for collision
avoidance and vessel monitoring in the maritime industry.
According to Mr Wright, a lot of
sanctioned vessels will switch off their AIS if they aren’t in a war zone to
“go dark” while handing sanctioned cargo to hide their identity or the origin
of what they’re carrying.
“What we've seen for non-Iranian cargoes
leaving the region,” he explained. “They will go dark and then they will
reappear on the other side and the thinking is it's much harder to track and
maybe fire on a vessel that's not broadcasting its AIS.”
Many of the vessels making the transit are
run by more “risk tolerant” companies, such as the Greek company Dynacom.
The SMYRNI oil tanker, owned by Dynacom,
is willing to take the risk of transiting Hormuz, according to Mr Wright.
“Because the rates are very very high,” he
explained. “They’ve done at least one, if not two more, since this started.”
Last week, Turkey said that a dry cargo
ship had passed through the Strait with permission.
More
How countries are
cutting deals with Iran to move oil through Hormuz
Iran may be where the US-led world order ends
American hegemony is unraveling in real
time as Iran strikes Gulf states and US security guarantees prove hollow
March 14, 2026
In his monumental work “The
History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire”, historian Edward Gibbon
argued that empires rarely collapse suddenly. Their decline is usually gradual,
shaped by long-term structural changes.
Yet, history occasionally records moments
when a single strategic miscalculation accelerates the process. The question
worth asking is whether the United States may have approached such a moment.
The joint US–Israeli strike against Iran
in February 2026 has triggered intense debate among scholars and policy
observers. Military conflicts in West Asia are not unusual, but this particular
episode may carry consequences far beyond the immediate battlefield. Some
analysts have drawn parallels with the 1956 Suez Crisis,
when Britain and France attempted to seize the Suez Canal after Egypt
nationalized it.
Although the operation initially succeeded
militarily, it collapsed politically after the US forced its European allies to
withdraw. The crisis revealed that Britain could no longer act as an
independent global power and symbolized the end of its imperial dominance.
Today, Iran strike could represent a
comparable geopolitical inflection point. For more than seven decades, the US
has anchored the global order, not only through military power but also through
institutions, rules, and economic arrangements that have structured the
post–Second World War international system. Many countries, including emerging
powers, expanded economically within this framework.
China’s rise as a manufacturing powerhouse
and Russia’s growing integration into global markets both occurred largely
within an economic system shaped by American leadership. The legitimacy of US
leadership, therefore, rested not only on strength but on the perception that
the system it created produced stability and shared economic benefits. Nowhere
was this arrangement more strategically important than in West Asia.
---- To manage this strategic
environment, the US developed a security and energy framework that became
central to its global influence. Beginning in the 1970s, Washington offered
security guarantees to Gulf monarchies such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United
Arab Emirates.
In return, these states agreed to price
and trade oil primarily in US dollars. This arrangement, commonly known as
the petrodollar
system, reinforced the central role of the US dollar in global finance
while ensuring reliable energy supplies.
The relationship functioned as a strategic
bargain. Gulf states received security protection in a region marked by
geopolitical rivalry, while the United States secured both energy stability and
financial influence.
Over time, this arrangement helped sustain
economic development across the Gulf and strengthened Washington’s position as
the primary external power shaping regional security.
---- Why the regional order may be
fracturing
Recent developments, however, suggest that
the foundations of this system are weakening. The February 2026 strike on Iran
has raised serious questions about both the credibility and sustainability of
US leadership in the region.
One major concern relates to diplomatic
trust. Reports
indicate that negotiations between the US and Iran were ongoing in
Oman when the first strike occurred. Launching a military attack during
diplomatic engagement risks undermining confidence in negotiation processes. In
international diplomacy, credibility remains a crucial resource, even among
strategic rivals.
The legitimacy of the operation has also
been widely debated. The strike reportedly lacked formal authorization from the
US Congress and did not receive approval from the United Nations Security
Council. Actions that bypass established international mechanisms inevitably
raise questions about the rules governing the use of force and the consistency
of the international order.
More importantly, the regional
consequences have highlighted growing vulnerabilities. Iran’s retaliatory
actions have targeted infrastructure and strategic locations associated with
Gulf states. For these governments, the episode raises a fundamental question:
if the US cannot shield them from regional escalation, can it still serve as a
reliable security guarantor?
More
Iran
may be where the US-led world order ends - Asia Times
In other news , is an AI bubble burst coming? Private credit?
Bill Gurley on AI bubble: A bunch of people got
rich quick and a reset is coming
Published Mon, Mar 16 2026 1:35 PM EDT Updated
Mon, Mar 16 2026 6:41 PM EDT
Benchmark general partner Bill Gurley on Monday
said the artificial
intelligence wave
is real and a lot of people got rich quick, but he expects a “reset” to come.
“When people get rich quick, a whole bunch
of people come in and want to get rich too, and that’s why we end up with bubbles,” Gurley told
CNBC’s “Money Movers.”
Gurley referenced the work of Carlota Perez, an economic
scholar who wrote “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The
Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages,” and noted that “bubbles only exist when
the actual wave is real.”
The venture capitalist said that when the
reset happens, investors should have a price in mind for beat-down
software-as-a-service stocks, “and start gobbling them up.”
AI has threatened to disrupt segments
across the economy, but software stocks have been particularly hard-hit
recently. Salesforce and ServiceNow have each
lost about 25% so far in 2026. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV), which generally
tracks the sector, is down about 20% this year.
Tech companies are spending at record
rates, due to massive investments in AI infrastructure and soaring memory
costs.
AI spending for Amazon, Meta, Google and Microsoft is projected
to be about $700 billion this
year.
Benchmark was an early investor in Uber, and Gurley played a key role in
the exit of then-CEO Travis Kalanick in 2017.
Gurley said Uber’s annual burn rate of $2
billion during his involvement was “high anxiety” as he pointed to the much
higher numbers from today’s big model companies.
“God bless them,” Gurley said of AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI that
are burning through cash. “It’s a scary way to run a company.”
Gurley on AI bubble: People got rich quick and a reset is coming
Top Apollo executive sounds off on 'arrogance' in private markets
March 16, 2026
Executives at the biggest private-credit
lenders have sought to play down an exodus
of investor money from
their funds, making carefully worded television appearances to calm jitters
about the sector. Apollo Global Management’s John Zito, co-president of
the firm’s asset-management arm that is one of private-credit’s largest
players, spoke more bluntly in a previously unreported discussion UBS arranged
for some of its clients late last month.
Zito called out “arrogance” in private
markets, predicted a private-credit loan made to a generic small or midsize
“Joe Software Company” might recover 20 to 40 cents on the dollar and said
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is needling President Trump with his
inflation commentary, according to audio recordings of the comments reviewed by
The Wall Street Journal.
Zito also detailed why he believes his own
firm’s private-credit business is on solid footing, joining a chorus of similar
comments from his peers. UBS declined to comment.
On private credit’s recent stumbles
He blamed the media for creating a frenzy
around private credit:
Zito talked about the selloff
in shares of
large software companies, which was largely sparked by fears about artificial
intelligence. He cautioned that smaller software companies bought by private
equity, many with private-credit loans, could face even more challenging
conditions. Those dismissing concerns by pointing to strong results from public
companies are missing the point, he said.
He pointed to Thoma Bravo’s 2021 $6.4
billion take-private of the software firm Medallia in particular. Several
lenders to Medallia including Apollo have already written down its debt.
Thoma Bravo declined to comment.
Asked what kind of recovery rates he
anticipates on a private-credit loan to a generic small or midsize “Joe
Software Company,” Zito said:
Zito noted that he expects private-credit
loans originated in the next 12-18 months to be “much better vintage” as it
relates to “quality of company, amount of leverage, documentation, spread.”
He also weighed in on redemptions and
whether private-credit managers should enforce limits, typically 5% of funds’
shares each quarter, or allow more investors to cash out when they are flooded
with requests. It is a topic he and others on Wall Street have recently been
asked about as funds take different approaches.
More
Top Apollo executive sounds off on 'arrogance' in private markets
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
US cruises sail into higher costs as oil prices rally; Carnival could be
hardest hit
By
By Aishwarya Jain and
Neil J Kanatt
March 16 (Reuters) -
Cruise operators face choppy waters as rising oil prices lift fuel costs, with
analysts warning Carnival Corp could take the
biggest hit to its 2026 profit as it is the only major U.S. cruise line that
does not hedge fuel.
Oil prices have risen
more than 35% since the beginning of the conflict in Iran, as attacks on oil
and transport facilities across the Middle East and disruptions to energy
flows through the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about global supply.
Brent futures crossed
$100 per barrel on Friday, compared with $72.48 before the conflict began. Iran
has warned that oil prices could surge as high as $200 a barrel.
Cruise lines, which rely on
heavy fuel oil and marine gas oil among other fuel types, turn to hedging to
lock in prices via financial contracts and protect against sudden swings.
However, Carnival
Corp in the U.S. is an exception.
A 10% change in fuel cost
per metric ton would reduce Carnival’s 2026 net income by $145 million,
compared with $57 million for rival Royal Caribbean, according to the latest
company filings.
Norwegian Cruise Line said
it has not updated its fuel hedges from its earnings from early March and the
10% change would cut full-year profit per share by 7 cents. This is equivalent
to a roughly $90 million fall in net income, according to calculations by
Morningstar Research.
"During 2022’s oil
spike, Carnival’s fuel costs rose more rapidly than its peers," CFRA
analyst Alex Fasciano said.
In 2022, when oil prices
rose after the Ukraine conflict broke out, Carnival’s fuel costs were 17.7% of its
total revenue, compared with 12.1% for Royal Caribbean and 14.2% for Norwegian.
"Carnival also owns
a larger fleet, meaning the level of consumption is also higher than their
counterparts," Fasciano said.
"Our best hedge
against fuel costs is to use less, so we focus on using less fuel in the
first place," Carnival said in an e-mailed statement to Reuters.
"We’ve cut our fuel
use by 18% since 2011 despite increasing capacity by roughly 38% during that
time," the company said, adding that it does not see a long-term net
benefit in hedging.
More
US cruises sail into higher costs as oil prices rally; Carnival could be
hardest hit By Reuters
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
NESO procures
40GW in T-4 auction, energy storage wins 6.4% of capacity
The
T-4 auction for delivery in 2029/30 concluded last week (10 March) and procured
40,108.608MW of obligations, above its target of 39,400MW.
Mar 16, 2026
The National Energy System Operator
(NESO) has released the results of its T-4 capacity market (CM) auction, with
battery storage winning 3% of the obligations and gas and interconnectors
winning the bulk.
The T-4 auction for delivery in 2029/30
concluded last week (10 March) and procured 40,108.608MW of obligations, above
its target of 39,400MW.
The clearing price was £27.10/kw/year,
more than a 50% decrease on last year’s £60/kw/year.
Gas projects won 58.5% of the capacity
awarded and interconnectors won 19.5%.
Battery energy storage system (BESS)
projects won 1,224MW of obligations, 3.05% of the total capacity, while pumped
hydro storage won 1,352MW, 3.337% of the total (the two combined total around
6.4%).
Other notable winning technologies were
run-of-river hydropower at 3.06%, demand side response (DSR) at 6.4% and
nuclear at 2.3%.
Solar won 13MW, 0.03% of the total. As a
non-dispatchable technology it is not well-suited for the CM, which pays assets
for being available at specific points in the future when NESO forecasts a risk
of not enough supply to meet demand.
It follows the T-1 CM results, which were released a few days
earlier, which procures for only one year ahead
and is smaller in size.
Notable owner-operators that won
contracts for their battery storage projects included Grenergy, Gresham House,
Amp Clean Energy, Eku Energy, European Energy, Harmony Energy, and many more.
The CM is generally used to cover a small part of a battery project's revenue
stack.
Technologies also have different
de-rating factors, a percentage figure which limits how much of your nameplate
megawatt (MW) capacity you can bid in. This is generally highest for gas and
nuclear, lower for storage, and very low for solar.
See NESO’s full T-4 provisional results report here, which has a full list of winning projects with
technology type and ownership.
NESO procures 40GW in T-4 auction, energy storage wins 6.4%
Finally,
yet another e-battery fire. Approx. 4 minutes. Welcome to our dangerous new
electric mobility world.
Scooter Battery Fire Floods College Dorm: A Growing Campus Problem
Scooter Battery
Fire Floods College Dorm: A Growing Campus Problem - YouTube
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Who controls the food supply controls the people; who controls
the energy can control whole continents; who controls money can control the
world.
Henry A. Kissinger
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