Baltic
Dry Index. 2031 +17 Brent Crude 112.57
Spot
Gold 4494 Spot Silver 69.80
U
S 2 Year Yield 3.88 -0.08
US
Federal Debt. 39.044 trillion
US
GDP 31.275 trillion
USA Federal Debt hit 37 Trillion June 20, 2025. Hit 38 Trillion
October 30, 2025. Hit 39 Trillion March 17, 2026!!! In 2022 US debt first hit
29 Trillion. 50 Trillion or close in 2030?
8:00
AM Update
UBS Suspends Withdrawals from $469 Million
Real Estate Fund for Three Years
Phemex News 2026/03/27 06:54
UBS Real Estate GmbH has suspended all
redemptions from its $469 million Euroinvest fund for up to 36 months due to a
liquidity shortfall. The German subsidiary announced the freeze on March 26,
2026, following a surge in withdrawal requests that depleted available funds.
This move blocks all redemption requests submitted after March 25 and halts new
share issuance. The Euroinvest fund, which invests in commercial real estate
across major European cities, has faced liquidity challenges similar to those that
affected crypto lenders like Celsius Network in 2022. The fund's performance
turned negative in 2024, losing approximately 9% over the past year as rising
interest rates impacted property valuations. UBS's decision reflects broader
liquidity pressures in traditional finance, with other firms like Ares
Management and BlackRock also limiting withdrawals from private credit funds.
UBS Freezes $469M Real Estate Fund Withdrawals for 3 Years | Phemex News
For
stocks and bonds, the Iran war is not going well.
For
oil and gas producers outside of the Persian Gulf, the Iran war is generating
boom times.
For
fertiliser and helium producers outside of the Persian Gulf, boom times too.
But
for consumers everywhere, stagflation looms, if not already underway.
For
the Israel-USA War Party next week, a difficult choice. Hang together and
double down, or will President Trump separate and head for an “exit ramp.”
But
does an “exit ramp” even exist?
Another
week of a largely closed Strait of Hormuz shipping, probably takes US and
European stock markets from correction into bear market territory.
In
a bear market, any guess as to how well private-credit performs?
US
Stocks Crater Under Iran, Oil Pressure
Equities
slumped again, with the Nasdaq 100 falling into a correction with a drop of
more than 10% from its last record
March
27, 2026 at 9:12 PM GMT
Markets cratered on Friday, with the
S&P 500 losing 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 entering a correction with a loss of
more than 10% from its last record. As the conflict in the Middle East
continues unabated and the White House sends mixed signals about the status of
the war, investors have grown increasingly concerned that higher oil prices
will lead to faster inflation and cripple the global economy.
Brent
crude oil jumped to $112 a barrel as Iran continued to turn away tankers from
the Strait of Hormuz. Higher fuel prices are stoking inflation worries —
economists raised US inflation estimates to 3% this year — and undercutting the
case for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates anytime soon. That has
helped push up Treasury yields this week.
Among
S&P 500 sectors, consumer discretionary stocks were among the biggest
losers, with the group falling more than 3%, while the communications,
technology and financial sectors were down more than 2%. The broader index
itself was off nearly 9% from its late January record, nearing correction
territory. Meanwhile, US consumer sentiment tumbled to a three-month low on
Friday. Here’s today’s markets wrap. — Margaret Sutherlin
US
Stocks Crater Under Iran, Oil Pressure - Bloomberg
Tech
stocks suffer worst week in nearly a year, driven down by war worries, Meta
legal woes
Published
Fri, Mar 27 2026 4:24 PM EDT Updated Fri, Mar 27 2026 6:06 PM EDT
A
bad week for stocks was particularly rough for tech investors, as the Nasdaq
suffered its worst weekly drop since April 2025. Meta and Micron saw double-digit drops,
but the pain was felt across the board as concerns about the Iran war drove up
energy prices.
The
Nasdaq dropped 3.23% for the week. The last time the tech-heavy index witnessed
such a sell-off was in April after President Donald Trump’s threats
of sweeping tariffs led to a near
panic in the market.
Google
parent Alphabet fell
nearly 9% and Microsoft sank
almost 7% this week, while Nvidia and Amazon slipped about 3%
each. Tesla slid
almost 2%. Among tech’s megacap companies, Apple held up the best,
notching a slight gain for the week.
Meta
had the worst week in the group, dropping more than 11% after two
stinging court defeats added to the social media company’s challenges.
Both trials — one in Santa
Fe, New Mexico, and the other in Los
Angeles — pointed to the struggles Meta has faced to adequately police
Facebook and Instagram, which remain the primary cash engines as the company
chases Google, OpenAI and Anthropic in artificial intelligence.
Meanwhile,
investors rotated out of memory maker Micron, which has been one of the
market’s standout performers in the past year due to a shortage caused by
soaring demand for AI processors.
Micron
shares plunged more than 15% for the week, though they’re still up almost 300%
over the past 12 months. The sell-off started last last week, after Micron’s
blowout second-quarter earnings
report. Revenue almost tripled to $23.86 billion in the latest
quarter, and the company issued strong guidance, projecting gross margins of
about 80% for the next quarter.
“Memory
today is very tight supply and supply cannot be brought up that easily, and you
are seeing that in our results,” Micron CEO Sanjay
Mehrotra told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street”
after the report.
But
with global markets feeling the pain of rising fuel costs and uncertainty about
when the conflict in the Middle East may settle, Micron’s results did nothing
to soothe Wall Street’s nerves.
Oil
prices on Friday closed at their highest in more than three years
after incidents in the Strait of Hormuz exacerbated investors’ energy supply
concerns. In a Truth Social post, President Trump suggested he’s seeking an end
to the war in Iran, as rising costs weigh on sentiment and create a growing
problem for Republicans in Congress heading into the midterm elections.
With
investors bailing on tech this week, attention turns to Elon Musk, the world’s richest
person, and what comes next for his trillion-dollar companies. SpaceX, which
was valued at $1.25 trillion last month after merging with
Musk’s xAI, is expected to file for an IPO very soon in what could be the
largest offering on record. And Tesla, Musk’s electric vehicle company, is
slated to report quarterly deliveries next week.
Tech
stocks hammered on Iran war worries, Meta legal woes
Economist
Nouriel Roubini: Trump is likely to escalate the Iran war — risking ’1970s
stagflation’
Published
Fri, Mar 27 2026 10:32 AM EDT Updated Fri, Mar 27 2026 10:41 AM EDT
U.S.
President Donald Trump is likely to escalate the war with Iran, risking
“1970s stagflation” if it does not go as planned, renowned economist and
investor Nouriel Roubini told CNBC.
Speaking
to CNBC’s Carolin Roth at the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, Italy on Friday,
Roubini — best known for predicting the 2008 Global Financial Crisis — rejected
the view that Trump was “looking desperately for an off-ramp” to end the war.
Markets have appeared optimistic in recent days about a potential resolution to
the conflict.
“People
make the argument that … his polls are down, he wants this war to be over
because there’ll be damage for the economy, growth, inflation and the mid-term
elections,” he said, referring to congressional elections in November. “But if
you think about it, the damage has already been done. If there is a ceasefire
on conditions that are Iranian style, he’s going to look like a loser — his
credibility’s weaker, he’s going to lose the election for sure.”
“My
argument is that, counterintuitively, he’s going to decide to escalate,”
Roubini said of Trump. “He’s going to escalate by taking over Kharg
Island, continuing to bomb, with Israel, the leadership of Iran and the
military structures.”
He
outlined a scenario where “everything goes well, maybe the war lasts a little
bit longer because of this escalation, but then you could have regime
collapse.”
This
could mean Oil prices might be higher in the short term, but a regime change —
which Trump has called for in Iran — could deliver “a situation that is better
for the world in terms of geopolitical stability,” Roubini said.
But
he warned of another scenario where, after Trump escalates, “the Iranians are
able to continue to block Hormuz or attack the oil facilities of the Gulf, then
you end up in 1970s stagflation.”
“I
think at this point he’s going to escalate. From his point of view, it’s worth
taking that risk, given the option value of winning the war,” he said.
More
Nouriel
Roubini warns Trump likely to escalate Iran war
After
markets rattle, Trump once again punts on following through with threat on Iran
power plants
AAMER
MADHANI Fri, March 27, 2026 at 12:08 AM GMT
WASHINGTON
(AP) — Facing
a convulsing stock market, President Donald Trump on Thursday moved to buy
himself more time and hold off, once again, on carrying out a threat
to obliterate Iran’s
energy plants over the Islamic Republic's effective closure of the Strait
of Hormuz.
Trump
said he was delaying taking potential action because talks aimed at
ending the conflict are going
“very well," despite the fact that Iran continues to publicly
insist it
is not negotiating with the White House on a 15-point
proposal —
delivered by Pakistani intermediaries — to end the war. He said Iran had asked
for the grace period.
“They
asked for seven (days)," Trump said in an appearance on Fox News Channel's
“The Five” shortly after he announced on social media he would give Iran until
April 6 to reopen the strait. “And I said, ‘I’m going to give you 10.’"
Trump
publicized his decision shortly after Wall Street closed Thursday, another
rocky day with U.S.
stocks recording their biggest loss since the war with Iran started. The
S&P 500 dropped 1.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 469 points,
or 1%, and the Nasdaq composite sank 2.4% to fall more than 10% below its
all-time high set early this year.
Trump first
threatened to bombard Iranian energy facilities on Saturday
— and almost immediately began vacillating.
In
his initial threat, he gave Tehran 48 hours to open up the strait, a chokepoint
for global oil markets. But he backed
off on Monday,
saying he would give Iran
an additional five days, after Asian markets gyrated. Then, he punted
again after Thursday's shaky markets.
Trump's
decision follows a pattern
This
was not the first time Trump has appeared to have been jostled into adjusting
policy in the face of market volatility.
Last
April, after implementing new tariffs that triggered the worst two-day sell-off
for the S&P 500 in five years, Trump announced
a 90-day halt on
the most severe tariffs for all countries except China.
But
on Thursday, Trump bristled at the notion that his team is struggling to find
an endgame to the conflict. Speaking to reporters as he met with his Cabinet,
he insisted that Iran had already been “decisively defeated.”
“We
have very substantial talks going on with respect to Iran — with the right
people,” Trump said.
Iran
had effectively dared Trump to follow through on the threat, warning it would
retaliate against the region’s vital infrastructure, including desalination
facilities for drinking water, if the U.S. or Israel hit its power
plants. Iran also has tightened its grip on the strait, as it seeks to create
something akin to a “toll
booth” for
tankers to pass through the narrow waterway.
The
uncertain market reaction to Trump's red line on the strait has left the White
House struggling to shape the war's narrative, with global investors fretting
over whether — and how — the president can bring
about an end to the war and reopen the critical waterway, through which
about 20% of the world’s oil passes each day.
More
After markets
rattle, Trump once again punts on following through with threat on Iran power
plants
‘I
have no idea what they are trying to do’: Allies say Trump sends mixed signals
on Iran
Thu,
March 26, 2026 at 11:11 PM GMT·
President
Donald Trump says he’d prefer a deal to end the war with Iran, but U.S. allies
say they’re watching his actions and aren’t convinced.
Even
as his top envoy tasked with negotiating with Iran, Steve Witkoff, said
Thursday the administration is prioritizing diplomacy, Trump has directed
thousands of
additional troops to the Middle East, ramping up expectations that the U.S. is
on the cusp of a major escalation in the fighting. Trump
himself said
he would “keep blowing them away” while Iran decides whether to make a deal.
The mixed
signals are
sparking whiplash among America’s partners in Europe, Asia and the Middle East,
according to eight diplomats from these regions, all granted anonymity to speak
about sensitive diplomacy.
Their
economies are suffering from what Trump has called an “excursion” — in some
cases they are hurting more than the U.S. economy. And they’re frustrated that
Trump and his aides aren’t clueing them in on their plans for ending the
crisis.
“I
have no idea what they are trying to do,” an Asian diplomat said, referring to
U.S.objectives toward Iran and the confusing messaging from the White House
about the possible next stage in the conflict.
The
confusion comes as the U.S. deploys thousands of U.S. Marines and troops from
the 82nd Airborne Division to the region. Seven of the diplomats said neither
the White House nor the State Department have offered clarity about U.S.
military intentions.
The
officials POLITICO interviewed included representatives of countries that the
administration has asked for help in its campaign against Tehran.
While
Trump has spoken frequently about his plans for Iran, some allies are beginning
to tune him out.
“Moving
all those assets to the Gulf just to call them back — if a deal is actually
struck — is a pretty expensive move,” a second Asian diplomat said. “I’m
looking at what the U.S. is actually doing rather than what POTUS is saying on
Truth Social.”
While
many U.S. allies were frustrated by the U.S. decision to strike Iran —
particularly without consulting with partners — some had started to see
potential for a diplomatic off-ramp when Trump announced Monday that the U.S.
was in talks with the Iranians and paused attacks on Iranian power plants and
energy infrastructure.
The
growing frustration since then suggests that Trump is losing that goodwill,
which he needs from countries that he is calling on to help secure the Strait
of Hormuz and bear with skyrocketing energy prices and the wider economic
fallout.
On
Thursday, Trump extended the pause on strikes on Iranian power plants, saying
on social media that he was doing it “as per Iranian Government request” amid
ongoing negotiations he said “are going very well.”
But
Iranian officials have little trust in the United States, especially
considering that they were engaged in talks with Washington both times that
Trump launched attacks on the country, said Ali Vaez, a senior analyst with the
International Crisis Group who is in touch with officials from the Iranian,
U.S. and other affected governments. Tehran is worried that Trump is using
diplomacy as a cover for more strikes.
If
Trump "was serious about deescalation, he’d delay the deployments,"
Vaez said.
More
‘I have no idea
what they are trying to do’: Allies say Trump sends mixed signals on Iran
In
other news, private-credit. Apollo joins the roach pack. What a difference a
week makes. Who’s next?
But
wait, Wall Street’s bankster’s are riding to private-credit’s investors rescue,
with (probably) pennies on the dollar. Wall Street strikes again.
Apollo
Global (APO) caps redemptions at 5% for Apollo Debt Solutions
March
26, 2026
Apollo
Global Management, Inc. (NYSE:APO) is one of the 7
Most Undervalued Blue Chip Stocks to Invest In.
On
March 23, 2026, Apollo Global Management, Inc. (NYSE:APO) capped redemptions
from its $25B Apollo Debt Solutions business development company at 5% of
shares outstanding after clients requested withdrawals of about 11%, according
to a shareholder letter cited by Bloomberg.
More
Apollo Global
(APO) caps redemptions at 5% for Apollo Debt Solutions
Top
Apollo executive sounds off on 'arrogance' in private markets
March
16, 2026
Executives
at the biggest private-credit lenders have sought to play down an exodus
of investor money from
their funds, making carefully worded television appearances to calm jitters
about the sector. Apollo Global Management’s John Zito, co-president of
the firm’s asset-management arm that is one of private-credit’s largest
players, spoke more bluntly in a previously unreported discussion UBS arranged
for some of its clients late last month.
----Zito
also detailed why he believes his own firm’s private-credit business is on
solid footing, joining a chorus of similar comments from his peers. UBS
declined to comment.
Top Apollo
executive sounds off on 'arrogance' in private markets
Private
credit’s cracks open door for Wall Street banks’ comeback: ‘The tug of war is
just starting’
Published
Fri, Mar 27 20261 2:38 AM EDT
Wall
Street banks may finally be getting a long-awaited opening to claw back market
share from private credit lenders.
After
a decade in which private credit lenders grew rapidly and took over a large
share of financing for leveraged buyouts, signs of strain in that sector, along
with easing bank rules, may now be shifting the balance.
“This
is an opportune time for banks to regain market share from private credit
funds,” Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi told CNBC in an email.
“Interest
rates have declined and banking regulation has eased. Private credit lenders
are also struggling with the fallout from their previously aggressive lending,”
he highlighted.
Private
credit’s rapid ascent was fueled in part by banks’ retreat. Following the
Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes and the 2023 banking crisis, lenders
tightened underwriting and pulled back from riskier deals. Borrowers,
particularly private equity firms, increasingly turned to direct lenders
offering faster execution and looser terms.
At
its peak, the shift was dramatic. According to PitchBook data, banks’ share of
buyout financings above $1 billion fell to just 39% in 2023, down from about
80% in the five years prior. That share has since recovered to just over 50% in
2025.
And
the tide may be turning further.
Private
credit is facing mounting challenges. Years of aggressive lending are starting
to backfire, as higher interest rates make it harder for heavily indebted
borrowers to repay loans and increase default risks. Investor demand for
liquidity is also rising, with some clients seeking to pull money after years
of locking up capital.
Moody’s
Zandi expects the sector to “experience more credit problems in the coming
months,” citing fallout from geopolitical tensions, higher borrowing costs and
structural pressures in industries such as software. Consumer and healthcare
borrowers may also come under strain.
More
Private credit's
cracks spark a new tug of war with Wall Street banks
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
War hits global economy with US inflation seen by
OECD at 4.2%
March 26, 2026
(Bloomberg) -- The
conflict in the Middle East is reviving the specter of inflation and hobbling
the global economy just as it was showing signs of strengthening at the start
of the year, the OECD said.
In its updated outlook on
Thursday, the Paris-based organization sharply increased its inflation
forecasts for major economies and now sees the average rate for the Group of 20
this year jumping to 4% — with an even higher pace in the US — rather than the
2.8% it predicted in December.
Downward adjustments to
growth were less dramatic in the short term, but largely because the drag from
the Iran war was offset by better-than-expected momentum at the start of the
year.
The OECD is the first of
the major international economic institutions to formally update forecasts.
Other indicators such as business surveys have already begun to point to
a synchronized global shock of weaker activity and rising prices.
The organization also
warned there is a “significant downside risk” to its projections from further
disturbance of exports from the Middle East that would fuel inflation, reduce
growth and potentially trigger repricing on financial markets.
“The breadth and duration
of the conflict are very uncertain, but a prolonged period of higher energy
prices will add markedly to business costs and raise consumer price inflation,
with adverse consequences for growth,” the OECD said.
Disruption from the Iran
war arrived just as the global economy was picking up tailwinds from investment
in artificial intelligence, an easing of US tariff rates and supportive
monetary and fiscal policies.
Without the conflict, the
OECD said it could have revised up its global growth forecast by 0.3 point for
2026. Instead, it left that prediction unchanged at 2.9% and trimmed its figure
for 2027 by 0.1 point to 3%.
The sudden change of the
economic backdrop is also forcing policymakers to change tack. Last week, the
Federal Reserve signaled that any cuts in US borrowing costs remain a long way
off. European Central Bank officials are considering a possible hike as soon as
April, while Norwegian officials on Thursday revealed that they had even discussed a move as soon as this week.
For the US, the OECD
expects inflation to jump to 4.2% this year, from 2.6% last year. Its price
outlook for this year is 1.2 percentage point higher than in December.
The organization now
expects policy rates to remain unchanged throughout 2026 in both the US and the
UK, while it foresees that the ECB will hike once in the second quarter to
ensure inflation expectations remain under control.
“Central banks need to
remain vigilant and ensure that inflation expectations stay well anchored,” the
OECD said. “Monetary policy adjustments may be needed if price pressures
broaden or if growth prospects weaken substantially.”
The 38-member
organization also urged governments still carrying large debts racked up
through spending during previous crises to refrain from broad-based subsidies
and transfers.
“Measures to cushion the
impact of higher energy prices should be timely, well-targeted on households
most in need and viable firms, preserve incentives to lower energy use and have
clear expiry mechanisms,” the OECD said.
War hits global economy with US inflation seen
by OECD at 4.2%
Technology
Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
The
Tech Download: How Russia could profit from Iran war helium supply chain
disruption in the chip sector
Published
Fri, Mar 27 2026 8:04 AM EDT
Helium
has emerged as a key focus for the tech sector as industry watchers cast their
minds to the implications of a prolonged Iran war.
A
byproduct of natural gas production, helium is
crucial to semiconductor manufacturing and the world’s second largest
supplier has seen its export capacity hamstrung by Iranian strikes.
Qatar,
which owns part of the world’s largest gas field, provided over 30% of the
market in 2025, according to S&P Global. That’s a big gap to fill.
“The
shutdown of Qatar helium production due to the US-Iran military conflict has
removed roughly a third of global helium supply and shifted the market from
oversupplied to undersupplied,” Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note from
March 12.
Prices
have surged since, and while many market watchers are optimistic about
chipmakers retaining access to the material, a drawn-out conflict will mean
helium buyers are forced to scramble to maintain supply chains.
Helium
producers in North America — which holds the largest share of the market — are
set to benefit from the disruption to Qatar’s supply, but Russia — the third
largest helium supplier — could also gain.
Russia’s
helium play
Helium
is used in chipmaking to transfer heat due to its cooling properties in a
number of processes.
Before
the Iran war, Russia had already increased helium production
because it has ample reserves and “a war to fund,” according to a Bernstein
note from March 13 referencing the war in Ukraine. That led to non-sanctioned
markets being flooded with the element and lower prices, the analysts added.
While
sanctions and trade limitations in Europe and the U.S. hamper access to those
markets for Russian helium producers, other major chipmaking countries like
China — which produced 33% of mature-node chips in 2023, according to the
Semiconductor Industry Association — have been increasingly turning to Moscow.
Russia-to-China
helium exports rose 60%
year-on-year in 2025,
according to research organization the Center on Global Energy Policy
(CGEP).
Prolonged
disruption to Qatar helium exports could see a big gap emerge in the Chinese
market, with the Middle Eastern country supplying 54% of the country’s helium
last year, per CGEP.
While
Russian helium is unlikely to become a preferred solution for Western
chipmakers due to trade limitations, it could “clear into markets like China,
tightening supply elsewhere,” Ralf Gubler, research director for industrial
gases and fertilisers at S&P Global Energy, told me.
“If
Qatari disruptions persist, Russia is well placed to further expand its role in
China’s helium supply mix,” CGEP research scholar Erica Downs wrote in a blog
post.
Russian
helium has not been qualified for supply to wafer fabs, but its supply could go
to other applications, freeing up qualified supply for the chip sector, Phil
Kornbluth, president of Kornbluth Helium Consulting, told me.
More
Russia poised to
benefit from the helium supply crunch amid Iran war
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Exponent
Calculator
Enter
values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.
This
weekend’s music diversion. Another long forgotten under-appreciated composer. Approx.
9 minutes.
Maurice
Andre - Concerto for Trumpet in D major by Gottfried H. Stölzel
Maurice Andre -
Concerto for Trumpet in D major by Gottfried H. Stölzel
Next,
more fun with numbers. Mud explained, way too complex for me. Approx.16 minutes.
The Origin of COMPLEX NUMBERS - History of
COMPLEX ANALYSIS
The Origin of
COMPLEX NUMBERS - History of COMPLEX ANALYSIS
Finally, anchors
away, welcome
to His Majesty’s little Royal Navy. Approx. 13 minutes.
The Shocking State of Britain's Navy 2026
The Shocking State of Britain's Navy 2026
The national debt is totally unlike a family budget for about a
gazillion reasons, not the least of which being that families cannot raise
money by fiat or deflate the size of their debt unilaterally and that family
members die instead of existing infinitely.
Matt Taibbi
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