Baltic Dry Index. 2001 +12 Brent Crude 104.00
Spot Gold 4499 Spot Silver 71.05
US 2 Year Yield 3.84 -0.06
US Federal Debt. 39.036 trillion
US GDP 31.269 trillion.
There's no honorable way to kill, no gentle way to destroy. There is nothing good in war. Except its ending.
Abraham Lincoln
While President Trump insists Iran is negotiating on his 15 point peace plan, Iran says “no deal, no talks” and makes demands for peace on its own terms.
Brent crude moved back up over $100 again, the price of diesel soared to a record high in California, and the stock casinos trade nervously amidst rising uncertainty.
The only certainty, the longer this unnecessary war goes on, the more likely the global economy will stagger into stagflation.
Iran Rejects US Peace Plan, Issues
Demands of Its Own
Iran wants guarantees that the US
and Israel won’t resume attacks, alongside reparations for war damages and
recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz
March 25, 2026 at 9:21 PM GMT
Iran said it rejected
a US ceasefire proposal and maintained attacks
on Israel and Gulf Arab states, delivering a blow to Washington’s
efforts to end a war the Trump administration started alongside Israel almost a
month ago.
America’s 15-point peace plan
stipulates that the Islamic Republic dismantle
its main nuclear facilities and use a reduced missile arsenal in
self-defense only, according to several people familiar with the matter. Iran
would get certain concessions in return, including sanctions relief.
But Tehran has its
own conditions for a ceasefire. Iran wants guarantees that the US and
Israel won’t resume their attacks, alongside reparations for war damages and
recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, it said.
The White House insisted that peace
talks with Iran are ongoing, even as Tehran publicly rejected US overtures.
Vice President JD Vance may
travel to Pakistan for Iran talks this weekend, CNN reported.
Trump has said he hopes to reach an agreement by the end of the week. —Jordan
Parker Erb
Iran
Rejects US Peace Plan, Issues Demands of Its Own - Bloomberg
Oil prices rise 2% as Iran rejects
direct U.S. talks despite proposal review
Published Wed, Mar 25 2026 9:12 PM
EDT
Oil prices rose Thursday after Iran
signaled it had no intention of holding direct talks with the United States,
even as a U.S. proposal to end the war is under review by senior officials in
Tehran, according to remarks from the Islamic Republic’s foreign minister.
International benchmark Brent crude futures added
1.95% to $104.21 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed
2.05% to $92.17 per barrel.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas
Araghchi told state media on Wednesday that exchanges between the two countries
through mediators do not mean “negotiations with the U.S.,” Reuters reported.
Iranian state media reported that
Tehran would reject a U.S. ceasefire offer and had instead laid out its own
conditions for ending the conflict.′
The latest comments came as
Washington and Tehran continued to offer differing accounts of the status of
talks.
Trump said Tuesday the U.S. and Iran
are “in negotiations right now” and suggested Tehran is eager to make a deal,
even as the Islamic Republic has denied any direct talks. Speaking in the Oval
Office, Trump said he had backed off from earlier threats to strike Iranian
energy infrastructure “based on the fact we’re negotiating.”
Analysts at investment bank TD
Securities said the latest oil shock is unlikely to trigger an aggressive
policy response from the Federal Reserve.
While markets have begun pricing in
the risk of rate hikes amid elevated inflation expectations, TD said the Fed is
more likely to remain in a “wait and see” mode, with its leadership still
leaning toward rate cuts later in 2026.
“The Fed will look through the
energy shock” so long as longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored and
second-round effects stay contained, the bank added.
Oil
price: WTI, Brent after Iran rejects direct U.S. talks
Asia markets trade mixed as Iran
rules out direct U.S. talks despite reviewing proposal
Published Wed, Mar 25 2026 7:40 PM
EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on
Thursday after Iran signaled it
had no intention of holding direct talks with the United States, even as
Tehran reviews an American proposal to end the war, according to the Islamic
Republic’s foreign minister.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas
Araghchi said that an exchange of messages between the two countries through
mediators “does not mean negotiations with the U.S.,” Reuters reported.
Earlier Wednesday, Iranian state
media reported that the country would reject a U.S. ceasefire offer and had
outlined its own conditions for ending the war.
Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates
strategist at Macquarie Group, said that a ceasefire is not imminent.
“Rather, an intensification of
military action by the U.S. as it tries to nudge Iran toward making important
concessions is likely over the next two weeks, before major combat operations
succeed, perhaps in mid-April,” said Wizman.
“The War may now enter its third
phase of ‘talk and fight,’ rather than talk only, or fight only,” he wrote in a
note.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was little
changed.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.28%,
while the Topix rose 0.43%. South Korea’s Kospi slid 1.55% and the small-cap
Kosdaq added 0.18%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slid 0.52%,
while the CSI 300 opened flat.
Oil prices were stable during Asia
trading hours. West Texas
Intermediate crude futures were up 0.72% at $91 per barrel.
Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained
305.43 points, or 0.66%, and closed at 46,429.49. The S&P 500 rose 0.54% to
6,591.90, and the Nasdaq
Composite advanced 0.77% to end at 21,929.83.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng Index
Next, more trouble in private
credit. How long before the pc crash?
Moody’s cuts rating on private
credit fund run by KKR and Future Standard to junk as bad loans grow
Published Tue, Mar 24 2026 7:20 AM
EDT Updated Tue, Mar 24 2026 10:55 AM EDT
Moody’s Ratings on
Monday downgraded a private credit fund run by KKR and Future
Standard to junk amid rising bad loans
and a string of weak earnings.
The ratings firm lowered the debt
ratings of FS KKR Capital Corp by one notch to
Ba1 from Baa3 — pushing it into “junk” territory — saying that the fund’s
underlying asset quality had worsened more than its peers.
Non-accrual loans, meaning loans
that borrowers have stopped making payments on, rose to 5.5% of total
investments at the end of 2025, one of the highest rates among rated business
development companies, according to the report.
“The downgrade reflects FSK’s
continued asset quality challenges, which have resulted in weaker profitability
and greater net asset value erosion over time relative to business development
company (BDC) peers,” Moody’s said, referring to the fund by its ticker.
Shares of FSK dropped 4% in Tuesday
morning trading. They’ve plunged by more than 30% this year.
The move by Moody’s is the latest
sign of distress in the private credit world. Retail investors have been
rushing to withdraw funds, running into gates amid
concerns about upcoming credit losses, especially related to software loans.
Asset managers from Blackstone to Blue
Owl have had to contend with
elevated redemption requests for their private credit funds, a potential
turning point for a category that has seen explosive growth in the past decade.
FSK, which lends to private,
middle-market U.S. companies, became the second-largest publicly traded BDC
when it was formed through a merger of two predecessor funds in 2018.
Funds such as FSK issue debt to
help juice returns,
so the Moody’s downgrade could increase its borrowing costs and, therefore,
lower future returns.
More
Moody's cuts rating on private credit fund run by KKR and
Future Standard to junk
In other news, the needless war gets
ever more costly.
It’s not just oil and gas. The
Strait of Hormuz blockage is rattling another vital commodity
Published Wed, Mar 25 2026 4:23 AM
EDT
Farmers in the northern hemisphere
are heading into the crucial spring months, during which major fieldwork must
begin. Their peers in the south, meanwhile, are busy harvesting crops before
the winter sets in.
However, their work now takes place
as the Iran war creates serious supply constraints for essential fertilizer
products — fueling massive price spikes and warnings of looming food
insecurity.
Around one-third of the global
seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the
UN.
The waterway, a critical shipping
route that runs along Iran’s southern border, has been severely disrupted since
the start of the war, with traffic effectively coming to a halt and several ships being hit by projectiles in
or near the waterway.
Since the U.S. and Israel launched
strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, the price of fertilizer — much of which is produced
in the Middle East — has skyrocketed.
Fertilizer futures contracts are
less liquid than other commodities, making prices more opaque. But analysts
working in the sector told CNBC that they had seen the cost of FOB granular
urea in Egypt — a bellwether of nitrogen fertilizers — jump to around $700 per
metric ton, up from $400 to $490 before the war began.
In a Monday note, Oxford Economics’
Alpine Macro said urea and ammonia prices had surged by around 50% and 20%,
respectively, since the war began. Other fertilizers, like potash and sulfur,
have also risen in price.
The Middle East is a particularly
large exporter of urea and nitrogen products, according to Chris Lawson, VP of
market intelligence and prices at CRU.
“With the Strait of Hormuz
essentially cut off, there’s a big chunk of global trade that isn’t able to
move right now,” Lawson said. “We estimate around 30% of exportable suppliers
are not really available to the market right now, that is Saudi Arabia, Qatar
and Bahrain, but that also includes Iran.”
Iran, Lawson said, is an important
producer of nitrogen-based fertilizers and one of the largest exporters
globally.
“There’s a lot of traded supply that
is at risk — 30% of global urea trade comes out of Iran and the
Hormuz-constrained countries,” he told CNBC.
“It’s a long supply chain — if
farmers aren’t able to get the urea that they need, crop yields will inevitably
go lower. Nitrogen is the main nutrient that a crop needs to grow, [and] there
will be inventories that can be drawn down, so you’re not really going to see
an impact on crop yields and a loss of crop production until later in the
year.”
‘You can’t skip a season of
nitrogen’
Dawid Heyl, a co-portfolio manager
for the Global Natural Resources strategy at Ninety One, told CNBC that
nitrogen fertilizers like urea were at the forefront of the Middle East crisis
because — unlike other fertilizer groups like potash and phosphates — nitrogen
is “the one element that you need to get to the plant every single year.”
“You can skip a season of potash,
you can skip a season of phosphates, but you can’t skip a season of nitrogen,”
Heyl said.
With farmers in the northern
hemisphere due to begin fertilizing their fields, the supply constraint has
intersected with cyclical demand. Urea, one of the world’s most used
fertilizers, is used in the growth of various crops, including maize, wheat,
rapeseed and some fruits and vegetables.
More
Fertilizer prices surge amid Iran war, sparking food
security warnings
U.S. California diesel prices hit
record high
Source: Xinhua| 2026-03-25
13:34:15
LOS ANGELES, March 24 (Xinhua) --
Diesel prices in the U.S. state of California have risen to a record high,
according to the latest data from the American Automobile Association (AAA).
The average price of diesel in
California reached 7.018 U.S. dollars per gallon on Tuesday, the highest level
recorded in AAA's database. By comparison, the current U.S. national average
price for diesel is about 5.345 dollars per gallon.
U.S. media reports attributed the
rising diesel prices to reduced oil-refining capacity and disruptions in global
energy shipments amid the war in Iran. California has lost two refineries since
October 2025, eliminating roughly 20 percent of its refining capacity.
The increase in diesel prices is
driving up transportation costs, with potential ripple effects on food,
building materials and retail goods shipped by diesel-powered trucks, reports
said.
U.S. California diesel prices hit record high-Xinhua
Tungsten prices surge as Iran war
drains stocks
By Staff
Writer
March 23, 2026
TUNGSTEN prices have hit their highest level in at least 90
years as the US and Israel burn through munitions supplies in their air
campaign against Iran, deepening a supply crisis already set in motion by
Chinese export restrictions.
The Rotterdam price for ammonium
paratungstate, an intermediate product used to make tungsten metal, has surged
from under $400 per ton a year ago to more than $2,200, said Reuters citing data from the Shanghai Metals Market. Tungsten is consequently one of the best-performing
commodities of recent months, the newswire said.
China, which accounts for around 80% of global mined tungsten production, tightened its export controls in February 2025 in response to US tariffs. Exports have since fallen by nearly 40%, William Parry-Jones, founder of Wolfram Advisory told Reuters. Chinese domestic output also fell 10% year-on-year to 61,000 tons in 2025 due to lower government quotas and environmental curbs on smaller producers.
Unlike tungsten carbide drill bits, which can be recycled, tungsten used in
munitions is destroyed on detonation. The defence sector consumed around 10% of
global tungsten supply last year, a share analysts expect to rise sharply as
Western nations race to rebuild stockpiles depleted by conflicts in Ukraine and
the Gulf, said Reuters.
Military demand is likely to crowd
out civilian users, including manufacturers of semiconductors, printed circuit
boards and solar panels, analysts warn.
Western supply is growing, with
non-Chinese production rising 20% to 19,000 tons last year, led by Kazakhstan’s
Boguty mine, though new projects remain years from meaningful output, the
newswire said.
Tungsten prices surge as Iran war drains stocks - Miningmx
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
Recession
odds climb on Wall Street as economy shows cracks beneath the surface
Published
Wed, Mar 25 2026 6:07 AM EDT
Federal
Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week
pushed back when asked whether stagflation posed a threat to the U.S. economy.
His successor may face a tougher challenge, as Wall Street forecasters raise
their expectations of recession, brought on in part by the Iran war and
potential for higher prices.
In
recent days, economists have pulled up their risk assessments of a U.S.
contraction amid heightened uncertainty over geopolitical risk and a labor
market that for the past year has shown strains over the past year.
Moody’s
Analytics’ model has raised its recession outlook for the next 12 months to
48.6%. Goldman Sachs boosted its estimate to 30%. Wilmington Trust has the odds
at 45%, while EY Parthenon has it at 40%, with the caveat that “those odds
could rapidly rise in the event of a more prolonged or severe Middle East
conflict.”
In
normal times, the risk for a recession in any given 12-months span is around
20%. So while the current predictions are hardly certainties, they signify
elevated risk.
The
situation poses a tough challenge for policymakers who are being asked to
balance threats to the
labor market against sticky inflation.
“I’m
concerned recession risks are uncomfortably high and on the rise,” said Mark
Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “Recession is a real threat here.”
War
drives the fears
Talk
of an economic contraction has accelerated as the war with Iran has dragged
on.
An oil shock has preceded
virtually every recession the U.S. has seen since the Great Depression, save
for the Covid pandemic. Prices at the pump have risen by $1.02 a gallon over
the past month, an increase of 35%, according to AAA.
While
economists still debate the pass-through impact from higher energy, the trend
has held.
“The
negative consequences of higher oil prices happen first and fast,” Zandi said.
“If oil prices stay kind of where they are through Memorial Day, certainly
through the end of the second quarter, that’ll push us into recession.”
Like
his fellow forecasters, Zandi said his “baseline” expectation is that the
warring sides find a diplomatic off-ramp, oil flows again through the Strait of
Hormuz and the economy can avoid a worst-case scenario.
More
Recession odds
climb on Wall Street as economy shows cracks beneath the surface
There
will be a global recession if oil reaches $150 a barrel, warns Blackrock boss
Updated: 08:04,
25 March 2026
If
oil reaches $150 a barrel, it could trigger a global recession, the boss of the
world's largest asset manager has warned.
Blackrock
chief executive Larry Fink said that if the Iran war keeps energy prices
persistently high, it will have ‘profound implications’ for the world economy.
The
conflict has caused wild swings in markets, as investors grapple with the
ramifications for global supply chains.
The
closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed Brent crude prices to their highest
levels in nearly four years - at one point reaching nearly $120 a barrel.
Economists
have warned that recession and stagflation - the combination of
higher inflation and
unemployment, and stagnating growth - risks are rising because of the
war.
Fink
said it was too early to determine the outcome of the war, but told the BBC there were two
possible scenarios.
If
the conflict ends soon, then oil prices could return to their pre-conflict
level at around $70.
----If
the war is drawn out, Fink says there could be ‘years of above $100, closer to
$150 oil, which has profound implications in the economy’ and an outcome of ‘a
probably stark and steep recession’.
Last
week, Deutsche Bank said: 'Investors are increasingly pricing in a more
protracted conflict that causes extensive economic damage'.
The
longer there is disruption to shipping routes and energy infrastructure across
the region, the less likely the damage is temporary.
The
outlook hasn't been helped by comments made by the International
Energy Agency (IEA), which has called the conflict the 'largest supply
disruption in the history of the global oil market'.
On
Monday, Fatih Birol, the IEA's executive director, said that hat the severe
damage to at least 40 energy sites meant that even an end to the conflict would
not immediately restore oil supply.
Rising
oil and gas prices will soon start to filter through to household energy bills
because the UK relies on imports.
Fink
said ‘Rising energy prices is a very regressive tax. It affects the poor more
than the wealthy.’
Energy
experts have called on the Government to allow the domestic production of
oil and gas or risk further price shocks.
Fink
said countries should not rely on one source of energy, and that if oil prices
rise to $150 ‘you would have so many countries moving so rapidly towards solar
and maybe even wind’.
He
added: ‘Use what you have unquestionably, but also aggressively move towards
alternative sources too.’
There will be a
global recession if oil reaches $150 a barrel, warns Blackrock boss | This is
Money
Consumer
confidence collapses as Middle East war escalates
25
March 2026
Consumer
confidence has “collapsed” as the war in the Middle East raises
fears of soaring inflation over the coming months, figures show.
The
British Retail Consortium (BRC) survey by Opinium,
taken between March 10 and March 13, shows consumer expectations of the economy
over the next three months fell to its lowest level on record, plunging to
minus 53 from minus 30 in February.
Expectations
for personal finances also fell to a record low of minus 17, down from minus
six in February.
Meanwhile,
spending predictions rose seven points to 13 as shoppers expected to see rising
energy costs reflected across the economy.
BRC
chief executive Helen Dickinson said: “Consumer confidence collapsed as the
Middle East conflict raised the prospect of higher inflation in the months
ahead.
“As
stock markets tumbled, confidence in both the economy and personal finances
dropped to their lowest levels on record.
“The
drop in confidence was most pronounced among the Boomer generation, who are
most reliant on investment and pension funds.
Ms
Dickinson added: “The current conflict has created a great deal of uncertainty
in the economy. Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months. Just as the
economy was beginning to turn a corner on inflation, the rise in global energy
prices is particularly unwelcome for businesses and families.
More
Consumer
confidence collapses as Middle East war escalates
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Fire experts
‘kept awake’ over growing hazard of lithium-ion batteries
Fire
service warns ubiquity of batteries in everyday products is outpacing public
understanding and safety regulations
Fri 20 Mar 2026 11.11 GMT Last modified
on Fri 20 Mar 2026 13.05 GMT
Lithium-ion batteries represent a new
technological hazard that one fire science expert has said keeps him awake at
night, as fire service chiefs warn the ubiquity of the batteries in everyday
products is outpacing public understanding and safety regulations.
The blaze that devastated a historic building in
Glasgow and resulted in the closure of Central Station,
Scotland’s largest rail interchange, is believed to have started in a shop
selling vapes, which are powered by lithium-ion batteries. Glasgow’s Central
Station has since reopened.
The latest data reveals a sharp increase
in battery-related fires across Scotland, while firefighters in London attend an e-bike or
e-scooter fire every other day.
Paul Christensen, a professor of pure
and applied electrochemistry at the University of Newcastle, underlined that,
while the probability of a fire from a lithium-ion battery is very low, the
hazard is “very, very high, as we’ve seen with this fire in Glasgow”.
Guillermo Rein, a professor of fire
science at Imperial College London, said: “It’s a new technology that comes with an
unintended new hazard, that keeps me awake at night.
“A lithium battery fire – in terms of
the way it develops, the way we detect it and how we suppress it – is
completely different from the sorts of fires we have protected our homes,
businesses and public buildings against. It breaches most of the layers of
protection that we know. And they [the batteries] are omnipresent.”
Lithium-ion batteries are used in mobile
phones, tablets, laptops, electric toothbrushes, tools, toys and vapes, and are
also used to power e-bikes, e-scooters and electric vehicles.
If used incorrectly or damaged, they
bring a specific hazard, called thermal runaway: a dangerous chain reaction
where the temperature inside the battery rises uncontrollably, producing a
toxic gas that vents at high pressure creating a flame like a blow torch, and
exploding.
Existing data suggests a significant escalation in
these fires in recent years. London fire brigade reports that firefighters
attended 206 e-bike and e-scooter fires in 2025, compared with 12 in 2019. In
total there were 521 related fires, compared with 80 in 2019. Of five
fatalities in the past three years, none of the dead owned the e-bike involved.
LFB says these fires have had a “devastating effect” on families and
communities.
There is no specific data collection for
lithium battery-related fires in England and Wales, now under review. But,
according to the latest FoI data from the Scottish fire and rescue service,
there were 69 lithium battery-related fires in Scotland in 2025, compared with
20 in 2019, including 10 house fires last year, two in hospitals and three in
prisons. Data going back to 2009 confirms there have been no related fatalities
in Scotland.
The incorrect disposal of these
batteries – which should not be thrown in an ordinary bin but can be recycled
in bins at many supermarkets – has resulted in serious fires in bin lorries and
at recycling plants across the UK, the cost of which is now estimated annually
at more than £1bn, as well as causing injuries to staff.
More
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be
attended by a bodyguard of lies.
Winston Churchill
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