Baltic
Dry Index. 2187 +47 Brent Crude 80.22
Spot Gold 5358 Spot Silver 89.30
US 2 Year Yield 3.47 +0.09
US Federal Debt. 38.834 trillion
US GDP 31.202 trillion.
We shall not grow wiser before we learn that much that we have done was very foolish.
Friedrich August von Hayek
Day four of the Gulf war and with almost no oil or gas getting exported from the Gulf, southern Iraq, Kuwait, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE will soon/are already running out of storage capacity for new production.
Northern Iraq has a pipeline to Turkey. (Kirkuk-Ceyhan,) Saudi Arabia a pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The UAE to the Gulf of Oman, (Habshen-Fajairah,) but these in no way make up for shutting down major exports of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf.
Qatar, lacking much gas storage capacity, has already stopped gas production. Gulf oil production stoppages next.
The markets, prepped only for a short oil disruption, an oil and gas “1973” shock nears.
Though the NY Fed and its army of market riggers were active Monday in supporting stocks and suppressing precious metals, they were unable to suppress oil and gas prices. I suspect the NY Fed will quickly find both impossible to sustain.
The Gulf disruption and likely coming Red Sea disruption is now causing chaos in too many supply chains.
Trump Won’t Rule Out US Ground Troops in Iran as
War Spreads
March 2, 2026 at 11:22 PM GMT
Donald Trump said Monday his war with Iran
could last weeks—and he didn’t rule out the
use of American ground troops. The jarring prospect of further
escalation cuts against majority
domestic opposition to the war, Trump’s repeated statements against
foreign entanglements and US intelligence contradicting
his justifications for initiating hostilities in the first place.
The
president and his aides have continued to give shifting explanations
for not only starting the war—which has reportedly killed more
than 500 Iranians—but what must happen for it to end. Iranian
retaliation for US and Israeli attacks have included strikes
on US allies and bases across the region, claiming more than a dozen
lives in Gulf states and Israel. At
least six US soldiers have been killed while a US embassy was hit and
a friendly fire incident shockingly
downed three American fighter jets.
Israel responded to a missile volley from
Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah by attacking Lebanon, killing
52 people, authorities there said. Both the New York Times and Washington
Post have reported that Trump’s decision to start the war was spurred
in part by
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Post similarly
asserted Saudi
Arabia had urged Trump to attack.
Trump spoke today about how long the war
might last during a ceremony in which he awarded the highest US military
decoration, the Congressional Medal of Honor, to three men—two of them
posthumously. Trump joked last month at a Georgia rally that he should award
the Medal of Honor to himself. Trump never served in the military, having
received several Vietnam
War deferments.
In a video posted yesterday on his social
media site, he addressed how many more US casualties might result from the Iran
conflict. “There will likely be more before it ends,” Trump said. “That’s the
way it is.” —David
E. Rovella
Trump
Floats US Ground Troops in Iran: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
This is the dilemma Trump is facing as war with
Iran escalates
Mon, 2 March 2026 at 10:53 pm GMT
Take the win or double down.
That's Donald Trump's dilemma as the war
escalates with Iran.
He says there could be weeks more to go,
so is he serious and can the US last that long?
Ahead of the war, in highly unusual leaks
Pentagon commanders warned the force being assembled in the region would have
enough firepower for a week or two at most.
The clock may be running faster for
America's allies in the region. Well-sourced reports claim Gulf states are
already begging the US president to end this soon,
not least because their stocks of air defence missiles are dwindling worryingly
quickly.
This war is asymmetrical. As unbalanced as
using Ferraris against e-bikes it's been said. A multi-million-dollar
state-of-the-art Patriot missile for instance will bring down a drone worth
only thousands, but doing so indefinitely is not sustainable.
Iran's strategy to lash out in multiple
directions has surprised many. It should not have. They have long warned they
would take the gloves off if they faced an attempt to change their regime.
It could cost them. Gulf states and Saudi
Arabia will now be considering joining the fight against Iran with their own
forces.
But for now, the strategy is already
working putting pressure on the US from vital regional allies to end this war
but also forcing their attackers to deplete their stocks of astronomically
expensive weaponry.
There are unknowns. How quickly can the US
reinforce its fighting capability and crucially what is happening on the
ground. Is Israel softening up
parts of the country from the air to enable regional uprisings armed by agents
in the field?
That could take the war in a very
different direction - the fragmentation of Iran and internal civil war.
There is no sign of that yet. In the
absence of such strategies the regime will most likely survive a few weeks of
aerial onslaught however ferocious.
This war is asymmetric in another way too,
that of desired outcomes. To win Israel and America must bring about regime
change because that is their objective. To declare victory the regime therefore
needs only survive, for as long as it takes.
More US pilots will be shot down, or
troops killed on the ground, the impact on the global economy will be too
great, regional allies and stability will be too punishing. Domestic support
for another foreign war will continue haemorrhaging.
For whatever reason this war will have its
limits and if the Iranian regime still stands when it reaches that point, what
happens then?
This is the
dilemma Trump is facing as war with Iran escalates - Yahoo News UK
Tons of goods are stuck around the Middle East
amid shipping and air chaos
Mar 2, 2026, 4:51 PM GMT
Global supply chains are on edge after the
US and Israel launched military strikes on Iran on Saturday, triggering
widespread disruption across one of the world's most critical trade corridors.
The fallout is hitting more than oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
Container ships loaded with consumer
goods, auto parts, electronics, and food are being rerouted or delayed, while
air cargo networks are fracturing under sudden airspace closures.
"Ocean container services in the
Persian Gulf have continued unaffected by the recent build-up of military
forces in the region, but the escalation in conflict through military strikes
means ships will now avoid the area, but for as short a time as possible,"
said Peter Sand, the chief analyst at freight-rate analytics platform Xeneta.
More, subscription required.
US-Israel
Strikes on Iran Disrupt Global Shipping, Air Cargo - Business Insider
Ex Goldman chief: I smell another financial crisis
March 2, 2026
Goldman Sachs’ top boss throughout the
2008 financial crisis has sounded the alarm that the global economy was drawing closer to another crash.
Billionaire investment banker Lloyd
Blankfein, who served at the helm of Goldman from 2006 until 2018, said: “I
don’t feel the storm, but the horses are starting to whinny in the corral.”
Speaking in an interview with Citadel’s
co-chief investment officer Pablo Salame, he said: “I wonder where there’s
hidden secret leverage”.
“Now everyone says: ‘The world’s not
leveraged’ – that’s exactly what everybody said in the mortgage crisis until
you suddenly discover that there was a lot of mortgage risk in Iceland,” he
added. “It sort of smells like that kind of moment again.”
The comments echo the sentiment of recent
remarks made by JP Morgan chief Jamie Dimon, who last week warned of parallels to the financial crisis.
Dimon said: “Unfortunately we did see this
in ‘05, ‘06, ‘07, almost the same thing.
“The rising tide lifts all boats, everyone
was making a lot of money… my own view is people are getting a little
comfortable that this is real.”
Private credit boom spooks bankers
Blankfein’s warning taps into
long-standing over excessive amounts of leverage being used in the financial
system, the practice of using borrowed capital for an investment with the
expectation that profits will vastly outweigh the interest owed.
They also take a direct jab at the private
credit market, a sector he has viewed with scepticism for years.
The banking veteran cautioned that the
‘shadow banking’ ecosystem is driving the global economy toward another crisis
by operating outside the strict regulations that govern traditional banks.
He specifically criticised private credit lenders for their recent moves to encourage
retail access – opening complex investments to everyday savers – at a time when
market conditions are becoming increasingly unstable.
In Britain, the private credit market is
estimated to have grown by 56 per cent since 2015 to $185bn (£138bn) making it
the second largest after the US, according to a recent report by the House of
Lords.
More
Ex
Goldman chief: I smell another financial crisis
South Korea’s Kospi leads losses in Asia stocks as
Iran conflict sours sentiment; oil prices rise
Published Mon, Mar 2 2026 6:45 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets fell on Tuesday, as
the conflict in Iran continues to rage on for a fourth day, denting risk
sentiment.
Oil prices extended
gains after Iran reportedly said it had closed the Strait of Hormuz,
with U.S. crude futures up 1.4% to $72.23, while Brent was up 1.87% to trade at
$79.2 per barrel as of 9.49 p.m. ET Monday.
More than 14 million barrels per day
transited via the Strait on average last year, accounting for nearly a third of
the world’s overall seaborne crude exports, according to Kpler data.
South Korea’s Kospi fell 5.37%, dragged by
6%-plus losses in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, but defense
players saw massive gains, with some stocks up over 20%.
Kospi-200 futures fell more than 5%,
triggering a temporary trading curb known as a sidecar that suspended transaction in the futures
contract for five minutes.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down
1.24%, after being one of the few markets on Monday to record a marginal gain.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 extended losses
from the prior session to drop 2.49%, weighed down by energy and consumer
cyclicals, while the Topix dipped 2.47%.
Hong Kong Hang Seng index was down
0.29%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 fell 0.24%.
Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500
inched up 0.04% after rebounding late in the session. The Nasdaq Composite was higher
by 0.36%, coming back from a 1.6% loss.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell
73.14 points, or 0.15%, settling at 48,904.78. At its lows, the Dow was down
nearly 600 points.
Asia
markets slip as Iran conflict continues
Gas price surge threatens to send household bills
soaring
2 March 2026
Gas prices surged 50pc on Monday after
Iran stepped up attacks
across the Middle East in a move that risks unleashing a fresh wave of
price rises and higher bills.
Analysts warned that household energy
bills could jump to £2,500 if the conflict causes prolonged disruption to
global oil and gas supplies, while drivers face the prospect of paying an extra
£10 for a full tank of fuel.
It came as a senior Bank of England
official admitted that policymakers could not protect the country from energy
price shocks triggered by strikes on Iran.
Alan Taylor, who helps to set interest
rates, said the Bank’s measures to influence inflation were too slow-acting to
prevent surging oil and gas prices feeding through into higher bills for
households and businesses.
European wholesale gas prices jumped by
52pc on Monday – the steepest jump since March 2022 – after state-run energy
giant QatarEnergy ceased production following strikes on a processing base.
Oil
prices also continued to surge after Iran struck Ras Tanura in
Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil export terminal, in response to ongoing
attacks by the US and Israel that killed Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader.
Prices rose 8pc to approach $79 a barrel,
the highest level since January last year.
More
Gas price surge threatens to send household bills soaring
In other news, shipping and the Strait of
Hormuz.
Maritime insurers cancel war risk cover in Gulf as
Iran conflict disrupts shipping
2 March 2026
Leading maritime insurers have cancelled
war risk cover for vessels operating in the Gulf as the escalating Iran
conflict disrupted shipping and sent some freight costs surging.
At least 150 vessels including oil and
liquefied natural gas tankers have dropped anchor in the strait of Hormuz and
surrounding waters, and at least three tankers were damaged and one seafarer
killed over the weekend.
The vital shipping route, through which
about 20%
of the world’s oil supplies and 20% of seaborne gas tankers pass, is
effectively closed after the US and Israel began intense airstrikes on Iran on
Saturday.
Several leading mutual marine insurers,
including Norway’s Gard and Skuld, the UK’s NorthStandard and the London
P&I Club, and the New York-based American Club, said they were cancelling
war risk cover for ships operating in the region.
This is likely to further dissuade
shipowners from traversing the Gulf. The insurers said war risk cover – which
typically covers shipowners for costs and damages resulting from war, terrorism
and piracy – would be cancelled in Iranian waters, as well as the Gulf and
adjacent waters, with effect from 5 March.
More
Maritime insurers
cancel war risk cover in Gulf as Iran conflict disrupts shipping
Explained: What is the Strait of Hormuz and why it
is vital for oil trade
Tensions in West Asia have put the Strait
of Hormuz in focus; here's what this narrow sea route is, why it is crucial for
global oil and gas supplies and how any disruption can affect prices worldwide
The United States and Israel carried out
their biggest
attacks on Iran in
decades on Saturday, in an operation that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei.
In response, Iran launched drones and missiles at Israel and targeted US
military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar.
As the conflict widened, global attention
quickly turned to one narrow stretch of water -- the Strait of Hormuz -- where
oil and gas shipments have largely paused. Here’s everything to know about the
strait is and why it matters so much to the world.
What is the Strait of Hormuz?
The Strait
of Hormuz is
a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. It connects the Persian Gulf in the
north to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea in the south, opening into the
wider ocean.
At its narrowest point, the strait is
about 33 km wide. However, the shipping lanes used by tankers are only about 3
km wide in each direction. Despite lying within the territorial waters of Iran
and Oman, it is considered an international waterway open to global
shipping.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE), home to
Dubai, also lies close to this route.
Why has shipping slowed down now?
Oil and gas shipments through the strait
have largely paused as tensions rose following the US-Israel strikes on Iran.
Iran has stepped up threats against vessels moving through the
chokepoint.
Ship-tracking data showed that on Sunday,
a small number of vessels were moving out of the waterway, though none appeared
to be entering, Bloomberg reported. A small oil tanker, reportedly sanctioned
by the US for helping Iran export fuel, was targeted off Oman’s northern coast.
It was not clear who carried out the attack.
Why has the strait always been important?
Historically, the Strait of Hormuz has
been a major trade route. In ancient times, goods such as ceramics, ivory,
silk, and textiles moved from China through this region.
In the modern era, it has become one of
the world’s most important energy corridors. Supertankers carrying oil and
liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar,
Bahrain and the UAE pass through this narrow route.
Most of this energy supply goes to Asian
markets. China, for instance, remains Iran’s only major oil customer.
While Saudi Arabia and the UAE have
pipelines that can bypass the strait, the US Energy Information Administration
has said “most volumes that transit the strait have no alternative means of
exiting the region".
Why does it matter to the global economy?
Around 20 per cent of the world’s oil
supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. On average, more than 20 million
barrels of crude oil, condensate and fuel moved through the strait every day
last year, news agency Reuters reported.
Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG
exporters, sends almost all of its gas through this route.
Data by Reuters showed
that in 2025, the Strait of Hormuz was the world's second-busiest oil shipping
chokepoint, handling about 2.5 million metric tonnes of oil daily. Only the
Strait of Malacca handled more, at around 3.3 million metric tonnes per day.
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
World on brink of economic meltdown - but Britain faces one threat no
other country does
2 March 2026
US and Israeli strikes on
Iran have rattled global markets. Oil has surged almost 10% towards $80 a
barrel as traders fear Tehran and its Houthi allies could target oil
tankers. Petrol prices and inflation could rocket as a
result. Flights at key hubs in Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi have
been suspended, inflicting still more
damage. Ten countries across the Middle East have already been rocked by blasts. If the war spreads and escalates, the economic
fallout could be devastating.
Asian markets have already fallen as investors
panic, and the FTSE 100 is
plunging too. It's only been saved by a sharp jump in the shares of oil giants
BP and Shell, and weapons maker BAE Systems. Which says everything. This could
be merely be the opening salvo, and Britain's economy will not escape the fallout.
Worryingly, we're being menaced by an even more deadly economic weapon of mass
destruction. And this one is homegrown.
It comes from our own
chancellor. Today we've had still more evidence of the damage Rachel Reeves has
inflicted on the UK economy. While missiles fly abroad, her assault on jobs,
investment and growth continues unchecked at home. The scars are visible on
every high street. She's done more harm to British economic interests than any
Iranian drone ever will. And she's only just getting started.
Tomorrow, Reeves delivers
her Spring Statement. She'll no doubt drone on about how she's "fixed the
foundations" of the economy, and blame Middle East turmoil and global
uncertainty for the UK's woes. But she's left the economy defenceless.
More evidence of the
damage lands daily. Today, the Institute of Directors warned that business
confidence has slumped as firms buckle under Labour's tax hikes and red tape. A
survey of more than 500 bosses found deepening gloom over sales, jobs and exports.
The Confederation of
British Industry also warned private sector activity is shrinking. It blamed
soaring energy costs and new taxes, and Angela Rayner's workers' rights laws that
are deterring companies from hiring.
Incredibly, business
leaders are more worried about what Labour is doing to the UK economy than war
in the Middle East or Donald Trump's tariffs. As operation Epic Fury pushes us closer to World
War III, British bosses see
their own chancellor as the greatest threat they face. Which is incredible.
The chancellor's
unforgivable £26billion rise in employers' National Insurance has doomed an
entire generation, by making young people too costly to employ. Pubs, shops, restaurants and hotels are taking
direct hits. Just look at our high streets. Boarded-up windows and empty
precincts resemble a town after an air raid. As I wrote a few weeks ago, Rachel
Reeves may as well have bombed them from the sky.
At the same time, energy
secretary Ed Miliband's insane net zero drive is eroding
Britain's industrial base. As Iran
threatens global oil supplies, we're reminded how vital fossil fuels remain.
Yet Miliband is blocking new North Sea oil and gas exploration, a self-harming
move no other country would contemplate.
Trump says he's ready to open talks with
bomb-blitzed Iran in pursuit of
regime change. If peace breaks out, global markets may steady. That won't
rescue Britain. Until there's a change of regime in Westminster, our bombed-out
economy won't recover.
A general election will
offer that chance in 2029. Until then, the carnage will continue, inflicted by
a reckless government that's turned its fiscal artillery on us.
World on brink of economic meltdown - but Britain faces one threat no
other country does
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Samsung SDI to unveil high-power batteries for AI at InterBattery
2026
Published : March 2, 2026 - 14:05:01
Samsung SDI said Monday it would present
high-power battery products and technologies targeting the artificial
intelligence era at InterBattery 2026, South Korea’s largest battery industry
exhibition.
Samsung SDI said Monday it would present
high-power battery products and technologies targeting the artificial
intelligence era at InterBattery 2026, South Korea’s largest battery industry
exhibition.
The battery-maker will display its
latest technology under the theme “AI thinks, Battery enables,” at the
exhibition set to open March 11-13 at Coex in southern Seoul.
The central focus of Samsung SDI’s
exhibition will be ultrahigh-power battery solutions for data centers, a key
part of the infrastructure needed for artificial intelligence.
The company plans to display its
uninterruptible power supply, the U8A1, which uses a prismatic form factor with
lithium manganese oxide to deliver both high output and safety.
The company will also debut a new
battery backup unit, or BBU, solution, for the first time at the exhibition,
featuring its latest design technology and high-power, high-capacity
cylindrical cells. The BBU connects directly to servers to respond instantly to
demand surges and secure additional time for data storage during outages.
Samsung SDI will also showcase the full
lineup of its Samsung Battery Box, an integrated battery solution for energy
storage systems.
“The AI industry, which relies on high‑performance
servers operating around the clock, requires high levels of power, making
stable and environmentally sustainable energy management essential," a
company official said.
"ESS will become a key power
infrastructure, providing immediate support during emergencies such as power
outages.”
In addition, the company will present
its all-solid-state battery technology and related applications. The company
plans to mass produce solid-state batteries in the second half of next year and
plans to deploy them in humanoid robots and industrial robots.
Samsung SDI to unveil high-power batteries for AI at InterBattery 2026 -
The Korea Herald
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
The history of government management of money has, except for a
few short happy periods, been one of incessant fraud and deception.
Friedrich August von Hayek
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