Thursday, 12 March 2026

War Week Two. UNCTAD Sums It All Up. $100 Oil.

Baltic Dry Index. 1926 -+07    Brent Crude 100.36

Spot Gold  5174                           Spot Silver 86.53

US 2 Year Yield 3.64 +0.07

US Federal Debt. 38.872 trillion

US GDP 31.228 trillion.

Oh Canada! Is the Canadian dollar called a loonie because so many Canadian politicians are lunatics?

The Canadian dollar is called a "loonie" because the $1 coin features a loon, a common bird in Canada, on its reverse side. This nickname originated when the coin was introduced in 1987 to replace the paper dollar, and it quickly became popular among Canadians. The loon symbolizes Canadian wilderness, making it an iconic representation of the country. (AI)

What a relief.

Friday the thirteenth tomorrow, followed by the Ides of March (and the Oscar mutual admiration society) on Sunday. How lucky can an old commodities trader get in the midst of an unnecessary war to bring back global inflation to save the debasing US fiat dollar?

The International Energy Agency finally announced the release of 400 million barrels of crude oil reserves. But the oil market wasn’t impressed.

The war has already impacted roughly 250 million barrels of Persian Gulf oil supply rising about 18 million barrels daily and the IEA crude oil release, though probably starting next week, will likely take three to six months to reach 400 million barrels released.

UNCTAD gives us a realistic picture of the state of reality today.

Asia-Pacific markets fall as Iran war continues to fuel oil volatility

Published Wed, Mar 11 2026 7:38 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets fell Thursday as investors grappled with volatile oil prices and escalating tensions in the Middle East, even after the U.S. and its allies announced an unprecedented emergency release of crude reserves to calm energy markets.

The International Energy Agency is looking to release 400 million barrels of oil following the supply disruption owed to the Iran war, the largest such action in the organization’s history. The IEA did not set out a timeline for when the stocks would hit the market.

The U.S. will release 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help lower energy costs, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Wednesday evening stateside.

The announcement comes after President Donald Trump said earlier in the day that he would tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to keep a lid on energy prices.

The West Texas Intermediate jumped 8.8% to $95 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent was trading around 8.88% higher at $100, even after the International Energy Agency announced its largest emergency release of crude reserves in history.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 1.61%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid 1.54%, while the Topix lost 1.61%. South Korea’s Kospi declined 1.3%.

Hong Kong Hang Seng index fell 1.12%, while the CSI 300 was down 0.6%.

Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as investors continued to eye developments in the U.S.-Iran war and oil prices.

The 30-stock index shed 289.24 points, or 0.61%, to close at 47,417.27. The S&P 500 inched down 0.08% to settle at 6,775.80, while the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.08% to end the session at 22,716.13.

West Texas Intermediate futures climbed more than 4% to settle at $87.25 per barrel on Wednesday. Brent crude gained about 4.8% to end the session at $91.98 per barrel.

Asia-Pacific markets: Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, Kospi

Brent crude hits $100 a barrel as reserve release plans fail to ease Iran war-led supply worries

Published Wed, Mar 11 2026 9:07 PM EDT

Oil prices surged more than 8% with Brent crude hitting $100 per barrel Thursday, as traders remain unconvinced that release of government stockpiles could offset the massive supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East.

The West Texas Intermediate jumped 8.8% to $95 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent was trading around 8.88% higher at $100, even after the International Energy Agency announced its largest emergency release of crude reserves in history.

The IEA said Wednesday that its 32 member countries would release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves, marking the biggest coordinated drawdown since the agency was created in the aftermath of the 1973 oil embargo.

The United States announced that it would release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright saying shipments could begin next week and take roughly 120 days to complete.

The IEA decision also signals how acute the oil shortage risk is, suggests the IEA does not believe the war is unlikely to end soon.

The oil market has shrugged off those announcements as prices continue to rise, highlighting traders’ skepticism that the measures could bridge the supply gap, if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted.

“Prices right now are still in panic mode. There is a lot of emotion, fear, uncertainty built into the price that we see,” said Pavel Molchanov, senior investment strategist at Raymond James.

The record IEA strategic stock release will add some much needed volumes to the market, albeit only closing up to a quarter of the 20 million barrels per day supply gap posed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, said Saul Kavonic, energy analyst at MST Marquee.

“But the IEA decision also signals how acute the oil shortage risk is, suggesting the IEA does not believe the war is [likely] to end soon, and stock draws now will need to be replaced later, portending higher prices even after the war ends,” he told CNBC.

Roughly a fifth of global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz that links the Persian Gulf to global markets. 

Timing and logistics remain unclear

One key reason markets remain uneasy is uncertainty about how quickly the barrels will reach the market, said industry veterans.

While the IEA’s announcement marked an unprecedented intervention, the agency did not provide details on how fast individual countries will release their reserves or how the oil will be distributed.

“That’s one of the key question marks, which is how long will it take for the 400 million barrels to be physically delivered onto the market,” said Molchanov.

“Four hundred million is a big number … but this is the largest oil supply disruption since at least the 1970s so we need a lot of oil, and we need it quickly,” he said.

Strategic stockpiles are held separately by each IEA member country, meaning technical and logistical constraints could slow the flow of barrels.

Molchanov estimated it could take 60 to 90 days before the oil meaningfully reaches the market, longer than traders hoping for immediate relief.

Oil prices jump: IEA record reserve release, markets doubt relief

A global food price shock looms as Middle East war rages on. Here’s who will be hit hardest

Published Wed, Mar 11 2026 11:45 PM EDT

The Middle East conflict has disrupted trade through the Strait of Hormuz and its impact could ripple far beyond the energy markets, risking a spike in global food prices.

The strait is not only a key artery for oil and gas shipments but also for fertilizers critical to global agriculture. Analysts told CNBC disruptions could feed through to higher farming costs, reduced crop yields and ultimately more expensive food.

“Higher energy and input costs risk reigniting global food inflation just as retail food prices had returned to more historical levels in many countries,” according to the International Food Policy Research Institute, or IFPRI.

Raj Patel, a research professor at the University of Texas, also warned that fertilizer disruptions linked to the conflict could amplify global food pressures through several channels simultaneously.

“The short answer is: significant, and faster than people think,” Patel said. “The Strait of Hormuz is a fertilizer chokepoint. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Iran together supply a substantial share of the world’s traded urea and phosphates, and virtually all of it transits Hormuz.”

Countries dependent on food imports directly as well as those reliant on fertilizers could face rising costs within weeks, particularly during key planting periods, said industry watchers.

Gulf countries face: immediate risk

The first region likely to feel the impact includes countries closest to the conflict.

“Regionally, consumers in the GCC are most exposed to short-term food price spikes due to their heavy reliance on maritime imports transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” said Bin Hui Ong, commodities analyst at BMI.

Persian Gulf economies such as Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia rely heavily on food imports shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. If shipping remains constrained, supplies would need to be rerouted through alternative corridors or transported overland at far higher cost, analysts said.

“When it comes to short term shortages, all countries around the Persian gulf west of Hormuz will struggle to get food imports in,” Mera said. “These countries will need to find alternative routes.”

He noted that wealthier states such as Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have the financial resources to import food by air or overland routes if necessary, but poorer neighbors may struggle more.

“Iraq may suffer. Iran itself will also face scarcity,” Mera added.

More

Middle East war: global food price shock looms. Who will be hit?

Strait of Hormuz disruptions: Implications for global trade and development

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, carrying around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers. 

10 March 2026

The ongoing military escalation in the region has disrupted shipping flows through this narrow passage. The resulting ripple effects go far beyond the region, affecting energy markets, maritime transport and global supply chains.

---- Higher energy, fertilizer and transport costs – including freight rates, bunker fuel prices and insurance premiums – may increase food costs and intensify cost-of-living pressures, particularly for the most vulnerable.

Similar repercussions were observed during recent global shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and at the beginning of the war in Ukraine, which showed how disruptions in energy, transport and agricultural inputs can propagate across interconnected markets.

The current shock comes at a time when many developing economies struggle to service their debt, tightening fiscal space and limited capacity to absorb new price shocks.

While the overall global economic impacts will depend on the duration and scale of the disruption, the situation highlights the importance of continued monitoring, particularly implications for vulnerable economies.

Key implications and considerations

  • Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz underscore the vulnerability of critical maritime chokepoints to geopolitical tensions and their potential to transmit shocks across supply chains and commodity markets.
  • Reducing risks to global trade and development, including environmental risks, requires de-escalation and safeguarding maritime transport, ports and seafarers, and other civilian infrastructure, while maintaining secure trade corridors in line with international law and freedom of navigation
  • Economic impacts, both globally and for the region, will depend on the duration, intensity and geographic scope of the tensions. Continued monitoring is essential to assess evolving risks and their potential impacts.
  • Socio-economic implications for developing economies: Many developing countries already face high debt service burdens, limited fiscal space and constrained access to finance. In this context, rising energy, transport and food costs could strain public finances and increase pressure on household budgets, potentially heightening economic and social pressures and complicating progress toward sustainable development, particularly in economies heavily dependent on imported energy, fertilizers and staple foods.

More, loads of charts.

Strait of Hormuz disruptions: Implications for global trade and development | UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)

In other news, truth is the first casualty of war, (again.)

‘Why Are You the Only Person Saying This?’ Reporter Asks Trump About Dubious Claim That Iran Bombed Own School

Mon, March 9, 2026 at 11:18 PM GMT

President Donald Trump was asked by a reporter on Monday why he is the only person who insists that an Iranian missile hit an elementary school in the southern part of the country.

The U.S. and Israel began bombing Iran last weekend in a campaign that Trump said could last at least a month. Among the first structures hit was a girls’ elementary school in Minab. On Thursday, Reuters reported that U.S. investigators believe it was likely that a U.S.-fired missile hit the school. At least 175 people were killed, most of them young girls. A New York Times report, meanwhile, concluded that a Tomahawk missile hit the school and that the projectile was likely launched by the U.S.

Neither Iran nor Israel is believed to possess Tomahawk missiles.

During a press conference on Monday, CNN’s Manu Raju asked the president if the U.S. would “accept any responsibility.”

“Well, I haven’t seen it,” Trump replied. “And I will say that the Tomahawk, which is one of the most powerful weapons around, is used by, you know, is sold and used by other countries. You know that. And whether it’s Iran who also has some Tomahawks. They wish they had more, but whether it’s Iran or somebody else, the fact that a Tomahawk, a Tomahawk is very generic. It’s sold to other countries but that’s being investigated right now.”

Moments later, another reporter followed up:

REPORTER: Mr. President you just suggested that Iran somehow got its hands on a tomahawk and bombed its own elementary school on the first day of the war. But you’re the only person in your government saying this. Even your defense secretary wouldn’t say that when he was asked, standing over your shoulder on your plane on Saturday. Why are you the only person saying this?

TRUMP: Because I just don’t know enough about it. I think it’s something that I was told is under investigation. But Tomahawks are used by others, as you know. Numerous other nations have Tomahawks. They buy them from us, but I will certainly, whatever the report shows, I’m willing to live with that report.

‘Why Are You the Only Person Saying This?’ Reporter Asks Trump About Dubious Claim That Iran Bombed Own School

Trump tells lies, says BBC’s Jeremy Bowen

11 March 2026

The BBC’s international editor has called Donald Trump a liar in a lengthy on-air monologue.

In an 11-minute essay on Radio 4’s flagship Today programme, Jeremy Bowen was given free rein to warn that the US president is “making it up as he goes along” in his war on Iran.

He said: “Perhaps analysts and commentators have let their distaste for Donald Trump cloud their judgment. Maybe it doesn’t matter that he insults allies whose soldiers fought and died alongside Americans in other Middle Eastern wars, or that sometimes he tells lies.”

He referred to the US president’s claim that Iran could have been responsible for a deadly missile strike on a girls’ school in the south of the country.

“He claimed that Iran could have fired a Tomahawk missile in the attack on a school that Iran says killed more than 165 people, including many schoolgirls. Iran doesn’t have Tomahawk missiles,” Bowen said.

He went on: “Donald Trump might learn that starting wars is much easier than ending one. It is hard to know when to stop if you don’t know exactly where you’re going.

“It is even harder to do that when the US, the world’s most powerful country, seems to have gone to war without a coherent political strategy under a president who, the evidence suggests, is making it up as he goes along.”

Mr Trump is currently suing the BBC for $5bn (£4bn) in damages, claiming that the broadcaster defamed him in a Panorama documentary, which edited one of his speeches to give the impression that he directly urged supporters to storm the US Capitol in January 2021.

The edit, revealed by The Telegraph, led the US president’s press secretary to describe the BBC as “100 per cent fake news”. Karoline Leavitt dismissed the corporation as “a leftist propaganda machine”.

More

Trump tells lies, says BBC’s Jeremy Bowen

Finally, that first British cockroach scandal is growing, who’d have thought it?

Lenders warn collapsed UK 'shadow bank' has £1.3bn hole

11 March 2026

A British “shadow bank” that collapsed amid fraud allegations had a £1.3bn hole in funds owed to lenders, its creditors have claimed.

On Tuesday, creditors claimed in a court filing that Market Financial Solutions (MFS), which borrowed billions to lend out to customers, had a much larger shortfall than originally expected.

MFS was placed into administration last month amid what a judge called “very serious” allegations of fraud. The company is accused of double pledging assets to back loans.

At least £930m was thought to be missing from its balance sheet, but in its court filing on Tuesday, creditors warned of a £1.3bn shortfall – much higher than previously estimated.

In its claim, the creditors have also argued that eight companies, which were said to be MFS borrowers, were actually owned by individuals connected to MFS co-founder, Paresh Raja.

The creditors’ urgent court claim, made by two MFS entities now controlled by the creditor group, stated that the entities had lent approximately £44m to a group of companies.

However, these eight companies were instead owned by “Raja-linked individuals”, according to the claim. The claim noted that two of the companies were linked to Magus Chartered Accountants, which also worked for MFS.

t added that these facts and others “give rise to the strong inference that the companies’ directors are essentially nominees of someone else”.

MFS boasted a loan book of £2.5bn, and its customers spanned the breadth of the UK.

Clients included property investors, overseas family offices and prominent businessmen and celebrities in the UK.

MFS described itself as a specialist provider of buy-to-let mortgage lending and bridging finance.

It was part of a fast-growing crop of so-called bridging lenders in the UK. These firms provide short-term, property-backed loans to borrowers who may not qualify for traditional bank financing and often charge higher interest rates.

The Telegraph revealed on Monday that Magus, which provided accountancy services to MFS, also acted as the owner and director of a network of companies to which MFS had issued loans.

Established in 2002, Magus’s website says that, as well as providing traditional accounting and tax services, it also offers advice on improving and developing businesses.

As a so-called shadow bank, MFS did not take deposits. Instead, it funded its loans by borrowing from itself. A cast of high-profile banks, including Santander, Wells Fargo, Jefferies and Barclays, backed MFS.

Its demise not only shocked the city but also prompted the Bank of England to investigate the circumstances of the collapse.

Mishcon de Reya, legal counsel to Paresh Raja, said: “These are not sham companies. They are part of a larger group that is beneficially held for MFS and its associated lenders. The directors are in the process of placing these companies into administration and are fully cooperating with the officeholders.”

Magus Chartered Accountants was contacted for comment.

Lenders warn collapsed UK 'shadow bank' has £1.3bn hole

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Consumer prices rose 2.4% annually in February, as expected

Published Wed, Mar 11 2026 8:31 AM EDT

Prices consumers pay for a broad range of goods and services rose in line with expectations for February, offering a final look at inflation pressures before an oil shock tied to the Iran war rattled the outlook.

The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.3% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.4%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Wednesday. Both numbers matched the Dow Jones consensus forecast.

Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core CPI posted a 0.2% monthly reading and 2.5% annual rate, compared to forecasts for 0.2% and 2.5%, also in line with the estimates.

The annual rates were unchanged from January, indicating that inflation was holding above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target but not getting worse.

While the report showed inflation broadly stable, prices rose modestly for shelter and services while several goods categories, including used vehicles and auto insurance, saw declines.

Shelter, which is the single-biggest component of CPI, posted a 0.2% increase, putting the annual rate at 3%. Within the category, rent rose just 0.1%, the smallest monthly increase since January 2021.

Apparel prices, which are sensitive to tariff pressures, saw a 1.3% monthly gain. New vehicle prices were steady and up just 0.5% from a year ago while energy rose 0.6% and also saw a 0.5% annual increase.

Food prices accelerated 0.4% for the month and were up 3.1% from a year ago. Egg prices fell 3.8%, putting the annual drop at 42.1%.

Markets reacted little to the report, with stock market futures mixed and Treasury yields higher.

The data predates the recent surge in oil prices tied to escalating tensions involving Iran, meaning any impact from higher energy costs will likely show up in the months ahead.

The U.S.-Israel attack on Iran dramatically changed the outlook, at least in the near term.

Following the attack, crude oil climbed sharply amid fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Higher oil prices could complicate the inflation outlook in coming months, as increases in gasoline and other energy products often filter through to transportation, shipping and a wide range of consumer goods. Sustained gains in crude prices can quickly show up in headline inflation readings even if underlying price pressures remain stable.

However, economists generally view such moves as temporary and likely to abate once the Iran situation cools. Crude prices are well off their highs after briefly popping above $100 a barrel Monday, but were up about 4% in Wednesday trading.

From the Federal Reserve’s perspective, the February CPI report likely keeps the central bank on hold as it watches how a series of interest rate cuts last year, plus the current geopolitical tensions, impacts the economic outlook. Traders expect the next rate cut to come in September, and were assigning about a 43% chance of a second move before the end of the year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

CPI inflation report February 2026:

Trump’s economy was already exploding the national debt before his $1 billion-a-day war in Iran. Analysts warn about what comes next

Tue, March 10, 2026 at 7:45 PM GMT 

The United States was already on an unsustainable fiscal trajectory, adding to the national debt at breakneck speed, before it launched a joint attack on Iran with Israel.

Even before the first munitions struck Tehran, the federal debt had surged past the $38 trillion mark, even jumping $1 trillion in just over two months between August and October 2025, the fastest rate of accumulation outside the pandemic in history.

Now, President Donald Trump has committed the U.S. to a war with Iran that is draining nearly $1 billion a day from the government’s coffers. With the U.S. borrowing at an accelerating rate, economists and defense analysts are aggressively gaming out the macroeconomic scenarios of a conflict with no clear endgame.

The $1 Billion-a-Day War

Operation Epic Fury is racking up a staggering military bill. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a DC think tank, the military campaign is costing approximately $891.4 million every single day. The first 100 hours of the conflict alone consumed $3.7 billion, CIS added in a report on the costs of the fighting, as reported by CNN.

The daily price tag is driven by massive air and naval deployments, with air operations costing $30 million daily and naval operations add another $15 million. Keeping an aircraft carrier strike group active costs $6 million per day, and deploying stealth bombers, non-stealth fighters, and tanker aircraft costs millions more. Kent Smetters, faculty director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model, projected that a two-month war could cost taxpayers up to $95 billion, depending on troop deployments and munition replenishment.

A preexisting debt crisis

These massive military expenditures are piling onto a highly fragile fiscal foundation. Michael A. Peterson of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation warned last October that the nation’s debt was growing at twice the rate seen since 2000. The U.S. government is now spending nearly $1 trillion annually just on interest payments, costing taxpayers more than spending on defense and Medicaid.

This fiscal strain is being compounded by an ongoing partial government shutdown, which adds billions in short-term costs and stalls essential economic activity. Credit ratings agencies have already stripped the U.S. of its top-tier rating due to political gridlock and fiscal slippage. And now a genuine oil shock is upon the global economy, with oil experiencing its most volatile trading day in history, touching $120 briefly on Monday before plummeting back to earth on mixed comments from the White House and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

Scenario 1: The short-term shock

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, 30% of the world’s oil consumption and 20% of global liquefied natural gas supplies are currently facing logistical disruptions. In an optimistic scenario where the conflict is resolved in weeks without permanent damage to energy infrastructure, oil prices are expected to temporarily hover around $100 per barrel.

Morgan Stanley chief economy Michael Gapen projected on Monday that this would act as a transitory shock, pushing headline inflation up by roughly 35 basis points for a few months while leaving underlying core inflation mostly unaffected. However, because inflation has remained persistently above target, the Federal Reserve would likely be forced to delay expected interest rate cuts until later in the year.

A more severe scenario paints a much grimmer picture for the global economy.

More

Trump’s economy was already exploding the national debt before his $1 billion-a-day war in Iran. Analysts warn about what comes next

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Latest development in graphene-based coating

10 Mar 2026 by Craig Jallal

A new version of a graphene hull coating enters service, extending earlier propeller and hull applications, and sharpening the industry debate around cleanable, biocide-free surfaces

A graphene-based hard foul-release hull coating has entered service, extending a development path that began with propeller applications and then moved to full-hull use on chemical tankers.

In its latest update, GIT Coatings announced it had launched XGIT-FORCE, describing it as a “next-generation graphene-base hard foul-release coating” and positioning it as a move away from “traditional biocide-based antifouling protection” towards “hull performance management”.

The company said the first applications are underway across a global fleet and that further work would follow over the coming months on more than 10 vessels” including LPG tankers, dry bulk vessels, roro vessels, container ships and cruise ships.

GIT Coatings chief executive Mo AlGermozi said, “XGIT-FORCE represents the natural evolution of our graphene-based solutions and a definitive step toward a new era of proactive hull performance management.”

He added, “By listening closely to our customers and integrating years of real-world learning, we have refined a technology that is mature, reliable, and biocide-free.”

The company said the coating works because of its inhouse technology, which it calls dynamic phase engineered technology.

In simple terms, it said it has tuned both the coating’s chemistry (what the surface is made of and how it behaves in seawater) and its physical properties (how hard, smooth and wear-resistant it is), using graphene as a reinforcing material.

The aim, it said, is to create a surface that does not readily allow the first thin layer of marine growth to take hold, and that makes any fouling that does develop easier to wash off.

The company claims XGIT-FORCE delivers “one of the smoothest surface profiles in the industry” and provides “a guaranteed 6% out-of-dock power gain compared to premium biocidal antifouling coatings”, alongside mechanical robustness intended to tolerate “ice friction, fender impacts, and frequent cleanings”.

A central element of the proposition is a cleaning-led operation: XGIT-FORCE is cleanable by design and aligns with the industry shift toward proactive hull cleaning as the most effective method for maintaining long-term vessel efficiency.

To support that operating model, the company said it had established an advisory services department to provide an end-to-end hull performance management solution, including support on vessel-specific grooming plans, fouling risk alerts and managing the process of cleaning approvals.

More

Riviera - News Content Hub - Latest development in graphene-based coating

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand.

Milton Friedman

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