Baltic Dry Index. 1926 +46 Brent Crude 100.12
Spot Gold 5102 Spot Silver 84.32
US 2 Year Yield 3.75 +0.11
US Federal Debt. 38.876 trillion
US GDP 31.231 trillion.
The Dow Jones consensus calls for the headline PCE to have gained 0.3% on a month-to-month basis and 2.9% from 12 months earlier. The estimate for core PCE, which excludes energy and food prices, is anticipated to have gained 0.4% for the month and 3.1% from a year earlier.
It looks like we’re in for a long war. Time to fill up the car, cut back on driving, and hope the Saudis can get their east-west crude pipeline up from about 5 mbpd to closer to its capacity of close to 7 mbpd.
But even if they can, it’s only an extra 2 mbpd v the shut-in missing about 20 mbpd in the Persian Gulf.
Things in the global economy are about to get ugly fast from here. Look away from those soaring US Treasury long yields now.
Asia-Pacific markets tumble as investors brace for
a prolonged war in Middle East
Published Thu, Mar 12 2026 7:54 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets opened lower Friday
as oil prices soared on renewed fears that a prolonged conflict in the Middle
East could further crimp energy supplies, stoking fears of a global economic
downturn.
Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei
said in a late Thursday speech that the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for
global oil trade, should remain shut and that Tehran could open other fronts in
the war if the conflict persists.
Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary
Guard Corps Navy, Alireza Tangsiri, also doubled down on the threat in a social media post, warning of “the harshest blows to the
aggressor enemy.”
Bettors on prediction market Kalshi raised their wagers that the
U.S. economy may enter a recession this year, with the likelihood climbing to
32% — highest level this year.
International benchmark Brent crude jumped 9.22% to
close at $100.46 per barrel on Thursday. It was the first time Brent closed
above $100 since August 2022. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose
9.72% to settle at $95.73.
Oil prices are likely to remain elevated
in the near term as investors price in the risk of a prolonged Middle East
conflict, Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital, told
CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on
Friday.
But he expects prices to ease towards the
end of the year as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are likely to resume.
“By December, that [oil] supply will be better, will be higher so if you can
make it in December, you will be able to buy oil much cheaper.”
Goldman Sachs analysts forecast Brent to
average $98 per barrel in March and April — up 40% from the 2025 average —
before falling to $71 by the fourth quarter. In the event that oil flows
through the strait are disrupted for one month, Brent will likely average
higher at $110 in March before gradually falling to $76 by year-end, according
to Goldman.
U.S. President Donald Trump has sought to
downplay the rise in oil prices, saying that the U.S., as the
world’s largest oil producer, stands to benefit from higher oil prices, while stressing that his
priority would be blocking Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said
Thursday night that the U.S. would temporarily
allow the purchase of sanctioned Russian crude that is already at sea
to stabilize energy markets, while framing the price spike as a “temporary
disruption.”
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 tumbled 0.3%
in early Asia trade.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 2% while
the broad-based Topix fell 1.4%. Honda Motor plunged over
6%, the biggest drag on Nikkei, after the automaker forecast its first annual loss in almost 70 years.
South Korea’s blue chip Kospi slumped
almost 3% and the small-cap Kosdaq shed nearly 2%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index tumbled 0.2%
while mainland China’s CSI 300 index inched 0.3% higher.
Overnight in the U.S., major stock indexes
notched closing lows for 2026, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling
nearly 740 points to settle below 47,000 for the first time this year.
The S&P 500 shed 1.5% to end
the session at 6,672.62, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.8%
to close at 22,311.98.
Futures tied to the 30-stock Dow inched
down 0.03%. S&P 500
futures advanced 0.21%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added
0.12%.
Investors await key U.S. inflation data.
Economists polled by Reuters forecast the personal consumption expenditures
price index, due to be released on Friday, to have risen 2.9% year on year in
January, and the core index is expected to have accelerated to 3.1%.
Asia-Pacific
markets today: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng, CSI300
Dow tumbles more than 700 points as oil jumps,
closing at new 2026 low under 47,000: Live updates
Updated Thu, Mar 12 2026 5:55 PM EDT
Stocks were under pressure on Thursday as
oil prices added to their surge on supply disruption worries while the Iran war
continued.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 739.42
points, or 1.56%, closing at 46,677.85. The S&P 500 lost 1.52%
and settled at 6,672.62, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 1.78%
to end at 22,311.98. All three indexes posted closing lows for 2026, and the
30-stock Dow ended the session below the 47,000 threshold for the first time
this year.
Crude prices continued to climb after
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who was appointed on March 9, said
that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed as a “tool to pressure
the enemy.” West Texas Intermediate futures rose 9.72%
to settle at $95.73 per barrel. Brent crude futures settled up
9.22% to $100.46 per barrel — its first close above $100 since August 2022.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC
Thursday that the U.S. Navy is “not
ready” to escort oil tankers through the Strait, though he said
it will likely be able to do so by the end of the month. Traffic there
has practically
reached a standstill as
the conflict in the Middle East escalates.
Overnight, three additional foreign vessels
were hit in the Persian Gulf, according to authorities. That comes
after three separate ships, including one in the Strait, had been struck
Wednesday.
U.S. forces on Tuesday sunk 16
mine-laying Iranian ships near the Strait. Insurance company Chubb was announced as the lead
underwriter for a U.S. government-led program to provide insurance to ships
attempting to traverse the key passageway.
“Iran’s strategy of sowing economic chaos
in the Gulf is working as tankers come under attack and Hormuz stays shuttered,
pushing Brent up toward $100,” said Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge in a
note. “The U.S. and Israel have military dominance and Iran’s missile/nuclear
programs may be degraded, but Tehran’s hardline [government] is firmly
entrenched, and its plan now seems to be leveraging oil to push Trump further
down an off-ramp.”
To help ease energy costs, Wright said
late Wednesday that the U.S. will release 172
million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It will
take about 120 days to deliver the fuel.
The International Energy Agency also on
Wednesday agreed to a
coordinated release of 400 million barrels of oil in an effort
to combat the supply disruption caused by the war. Oil prices remained higher
in the previous session, however, amid worries that the conflict could be
drawn out.
President Donald Trump earlier this
week said that the war will end “very soon,” which had
caused a reprieve in surging oil prices after they topped $100 a barrel.
“If energy costs and gasoline prices
remain at current levels or rise for a period due to developments in the Middle
East, it may weigh on consumer sentiment and push affordability issues to the
forefront as we get closer to the midterm elections,” said Anthony Saglimbene,
chief market strategist at Ameriprise.
“That said, overall consumer balance
sheets remain in solid condition, income and employment conditions are
currently sound, and inflation continues to ease in important pockets, namely
shelter,” he continued. “Over time, if inflation continues to ease (outside of
temporary energy impacts) and markets and the economy hold on firm footing,
Americans’ attitudes about their ability to afford everyday life could
improve.”
Despite the ongoing conflict, the S&P
500′s pullback has been relatively tame with the benchmark just more than 4%
off its record reached in January.
Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were
negative Thursday, with banks and tech stocks in the red. Morgan Stanley led
financials lower after capping private
credit fund withdrawals. Energy stocks, including Chevron and Exxon Mobil, were among the
few stocks in the green.
Stock market news
for March 12, 2026
CNBC Daily Open: A prolonged Iran war is on the
horizon
Published Thu, Mar 12 2026 9:32 PM EDT
What you need to know today
The Iran war is showing no signs of
easing, with Tehran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei saying Thursday
that the Strait of Hormuz closure should continue as a “tool to pressure the
enemy,” in his first public statement since being appointed. The U.S. Treasury
Secretary Scott Bessent, meanwhile, told Sky
News that the U.S. Navy will begin escorting ships through the critical
waterway as soon as “militarily possible.”
Khamenei’s comments sent oil prices soaring,
with Brent crude closing above $100 a barrel for the first time since August
2022. Energy worries sent European and U.S. stocks lower,
with the 30-stock Dow ending the
session below the 47,000 threshold for the first time this year. Asia markets
opened lower Friday.
Attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf have
also intensified. Three more foreign vessels were struck Wednesday, according to
the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, causing a small fire onboard,
though all crew were reported to be safe. That comes after two foreign oil
tankers were left ablaze in Iraqi waters after having been struck near the port
of Umm Qasr, close to the city of Basra, Iraq.
Both sides also have hinted that the war
could go on for longer. Iran has warned the world to “get ready for oil to be
$200 a barrel,” Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran’s military command,
said Wednesday, according to Reuters.
Amid fears of a long-drawn war, the U.S.
temporarily authorized purchases of Russian oil stranded at sea to stabilize
energy markets. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in
a post on X Thursday that this “narrowly tailored, short-term measure” will not
provide “significant financial benefit to the Russian government.”
With all signs pointing to a prolonged war
that will continue to disrupt supply of commodities, markets and policymakers
appear to be bracing for more impact.
CNBC
Daily Open: A prolonged Iran war is on the horizon
Trump Removes Sanctions on Russia to Help Oil Flow
Amid Iran Conflict
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it
was “unfortunate” that the move could benefit Russia, but maintained that it
was only for the short term.
March 12, 2026
The United States on Thursday temporarily
lifted sanctions on Russian oil that is currently at sea, allowing it to be
shipped to buyers around the world as the Trump administration scrambles to
contain energy prices that have been soaring because of the war in Iran.
The exemptions, which were issued by the
Treasury Department, will be in place until April 11. Treasury Secretary Scott
Bessent estimated that freeing Russian oil could add hundreds of millions of
barrels of crude to global markets, curbing prices that have been hovering near
$100 per barrel as a result of the Iran conflict.
The decision was a significant turning
point in America’s effort to punish Russia for its war in Ukraine.
Russia has faced punishing sanctions from
the United States and the rest of the Group of 7 advanced economies since
Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Those sanctions have included a price
cap on Russian oil and a crackdown on Russia’s “shadow fleet” of
unmarked vessels that oil exporters have used to evade sanctions.
As President Trump’s war with Iran has
unfolded, his administration has looked for ways to mitigate the economic pain.
His administration temporarily freed Russian oil last week that was sitting at
sea and was set to be delivered to India. It is also in the process of offering
a $20 billion maritime insurance backstop through the U.S. International
Development Finance Corporation, an agency that generally lends to and invests
in overseas companies and projects.
More
Trump
Removes Sanctions on Russia to Help Oil Flow Amid Iran Conflict - The New York
Times
The two oil pipelines helping Saudi Arabia and UAE
bypass the Strait of Hormuz
Published Thu, Mar 12 2026 8:52 AM EDT Updated
Thu, Mar 12 2026 9:57 AM EDT
The effective
closure of the Strait of Hormuz has abruptly thrust two alternative
oil pipelines into the global spotlight, one in Saudi Arabia and another in the
United Arab Emirates.
The first is Saudi Arabia’s East-West
pipeline network, or Petroline, a roughly 750-mile system that transports crude
across Saudi Arabia, connecting Abqaiq on the oil-rich kingdom’s eastern Gulf
coast to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.
The East-West pipeline is estimated to
have a total design capacity of 7 million barrels per day, following recent
expansions, and Saudi oil giant Aramco said earlier
this week that it expects the network to reach full capacity over the coming
days.
The second smaller pipeline is the UAE’s
Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), or the Habshan–Fujairah oil pipeline.
Spanning around 248 miles from onshore oil facilities at Habshan to Fujairah,
the pipeline is estimated to handle 1.5 million barrels per day, with
a reported total capacity of close to 1.8 million barrels per day.
Crucially, both alternate pieces of Gulf
infrastructure bypass the Strait of Hormuz, a vital
oil choke point which has been blocked since the U.S. and Israel
launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28.
---- Taken together, energy analysts
said the East-West pipeline and ADCOP could help to partially offset the nearly
20 million barrels per day that typically transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The risk of infrastructure damage amid the sprawling Middle East crisis,
however, remains an ongoing challenge.
“Saudi Arabia and the UAE are already
increasing utilisation of pipelines that bypass the strait,” Naveen Das, senior
oil analyst at global trade intelligence company Kpler, told CNBC by email.
“In the UAE, we estimate the 1.5 mbd ADCOP
pipeline is operating at 71% utilization, leaving around 440,000 [barrels per
day] of spare capacity. ADNOC can temporarily raise throughput to 1.8 mbd if
required,” Das said.
---- “The UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil
Pipeline (ADCOP) allows crude exports to bypass the Strait via Fujairah, but
refined products from the Ruwais complex still largely depend on tanker routes
that transit Hormuz,” Srivastava said Thursday.
“As a result, UAE refineries may still
need to adjust product exports or manage inventory build-ups if maritime flows
remain restricted,” she added.
---- “The longer this conflict goes
on, the more these storages fill up and there’s nothing to do but production
cuts,” Sasha Foss, energy market analyst at Marex, told CNBC’s “Europe Early Europe” on
Wednesday.
He estimated that Iraqi oil production had
fallen by as much as 70% due to the Iran war and warned that further production
shut-ins could send oil prices even higher.
“When we see the likes of Saudi Arabia and
UAE trimming, that’s when it is really going to hit global oil markets hard,”
Foss said.
Two
pipelines helping Saudi Arabia, UAE bypass the Strait of Hormuz
Bahrain Airport rocked by huge explosion amid Iran
attacks on Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Qatar
12 March 2026
Smoke was seen billowing above Bahrain
International Airport on Thursday as Iran continues to attack its neighbours in
the Middle East.
It remained unclear whether the tanks
reportedly hit were part of the airport's kerosene facilities or a different
site, local reports added. Reuters agency confirmed "plumes of smoke
rising from the vicinity of Bahrain International Airport". Other local
reports said air defense systems were active over the airport near the capital
Manama and the city of Muharraq, describing "an impact and large fire near
Bahrain International Airport, with claims that a fuel depot was struck".
The country's Interior Ministry (MOI) said
on X that authorities were taking necessary measures following the attack. It
then confirmed the "fuel tank attack" and said: "MOI assures
citizens and residents living in the areas surrounding the site of the fuel
tank attack in Muharraq that they can resume their normal lives and open their
windows." It also said the relevant authorities, and Civil Defence have
"successfully contained the fire resulting from the Iranian aggression, and
cooling operations are currently underway".
In Bahrain, an Iranian missile also struck
the 405,000-barrel-per-day Sitra refinery operated by Bapco Energies on 5
March. The
country was also targeted last week, when a fire broke out at the BAPCO oil
facility in Bahrain after an attack from Iran, the country's Ministry of
Interior said. At the time, "limited damage" was reported, but no
casualties.
There are also reports indicating an
attack on Dubai International Airport, where a large tower next to the Address
Hotel was reportedly struck by a drone.
Recently, Iran started a series of attacks
in retaliation for U.S.-Israeli strikes on the country, with a focus on U.S.
allies in the Gulf hosting American military bases like Bahrain.
On Tuesday, Abu
Dhabi's authorities responded
to a fire at the Ruwais Industrial Complex after a drone attack. Officials said
the blaze broke out at one of the facilities within the industrial site
following the strike.
In Kuwait, debris injured workers at the
346,000-barrel-per-day Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery. Meanwhile, Saudi oil giant
Saudi Aramco shut its 550,000-barrel-per-day Ras Tanura refinery on 2 March
after debris from intercepted drones fell on the facility, which was targeted
again on 4 March.
Bahrain Airport
rocked by huge explosion amid Iran attacks on Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Qatar
Asia rolls out four-day weeks and work-from-home
as emergency measures to solve a fuel crisis caused by Iran war
March 11, 2026, 10:02 PM ET
Closed schools. Work-from-home demands.
Price caps.
Asia’s governments are scrambling to manage a fuel shortage caused by high oil
prices and a closed Strait of Hormuz. Asia is particularly dependent on oil
exports from the Middle East; Japan and South Korea respectively source 90% and
70% of their oil from the region.
The energy crunch is forcing governments to adopt more extreme measures to save
fuel.
On March 10, Thailand ordered civil
servants to take the stairs rather than
the elevator, and to work-from-home for the duration of the crisis. It
increased the air-conditioning temperature to 27 degrees Celsius, and will tell
government employees to wear short-sleeved shirts over suits. (Thailand has
about 95 days of energy reserves left, according to Reuters).
Vietnam also called on businesses to let
people work-from-home to “reduce
the need for travel and transportation.” The Philippines is pushing for a four-day work
week,
and has ordered officials to limit travel “to essential functions only.”
South Asia is getting hit hard too.
Bangladesh brought forward the Eid-al-fitr holiday, allowing universities
to close early in a bid to
save fuel. Pakistan also instituted a four-day week for
government offices and closed schools. India suspended shipments of liquefied
petroleum gas to commercial operators to prioritize supplies for households,
leading to worries from
hotels and restaurants that they may be forced to close without fuel
supplies.
Asian countries are also intervening more
directly into fuel markets.
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung on
Monday said the country would introduce a price cap on petroleum products, and
warned that the current crisis presented a “significant burden on the country’s
economy.” Around 1.7 million barrels of Korea-bound oil has been held back per
day due to the ongoing conflict, presidential policy advisor Kim Yong-beom
noted during
a March 9 press briefing.
Ryosei Akazawa, Japan’s industry minister,
didn’t rule out dipping into Japan’s national oil
reserves on
Wednesday, adding the country “will take all possible measures to ensure stable
supplies of energy”.
On Monday, Indonesia’s
finance minister said
the Southeast Asian country would set aside 381.3 trillion rupiah ($22.6
billion) for energy subsidies and pay state energy firms like Pertamina to keep fuel
and electricity prices affordable for its residents.
Thailand plans to freeze cooking gas
prices until May,
and encourage consumers to use alternative energy sources, like biodiesel and
benzene. Vietnam is also considering scrapping its tariffs on fuel
imports.
More
Asia rolls out
4-day weeks, work-from-home to solve fuel crisis caused by Iran war | Fortune
In other news, guess what. Just don’t tell
President Trump.
Pentagon finds US was behind deadly strike which
killed more than 170 Iranian schoolchildren
Published March 12,
2026 7:21am Updated March 12, 2026 8:00am
A preliminary investigation from the
Pentagon found that the US was behind the strike on an Iranian school that
killed 175 children.
The discovery comes days after President
Donald Trump suggested Iran was behind the strike, which saw an American
Tomahawk missile strike Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school.
The White House has not yet
addressed the investigation’s findings, telling reporters in a press
conference: ‘As The New York Times
acknowledges in its own reporting, the investigation is still ongoing.’
Investigative group Bellingcat found a
video which appeared to contradict Trump’s previous claim that Iran was behind
the strike.
Experts cited satellite image analysis and
said the school was likely struck amid a quick succession of bombs
dropped on the compound.
The video shared by Bellingcat is a
three-second clip of a video taken the day the school was struck and
circulated on Sunday by Iran’s semiofficial Mehr news agency.
The video shows a munition falling on a
building, sending a dark plume into the air that mingles with smoke that likely
came from earlier strikes on the compound.
Trevor Ball, a Bellingcat researcher,
geolocated the video to a site near the school, something also done by the
AP.
Ball identified the munition as a Tomahawk
cruise missile, which only the US is known to possess in this war. It is the
first evidence of a munition used in the strike.
US Central Command has acknowledged using
Tomahawk missiles in this war and even released a photo of the USS Spruance,
part of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier group located within range of
the school, firing a Tomahawk missile on February 28.
When asked by a reporter on Saturday
whether the US was responsible for the blast, which killed mostly children,
Trump responded, without providing evidence: ‘No, in my opinion, based on what
I’ve seen, that was done by Iran.’
Janina Dill, an expert on international
law at Oxford University,
wrote that even if the strike was a misidentification – and the attacker
believed that the school had been a part of the neighbouring IRGC
base – it would still be ‘a very serious violation of international law’.
----Witnesses
from the Red Crescent, which responds to emergency situations, said children
were killed in a ‘double tap’ strike – where, after an initial strike, a second
is fired to kill survivors and medics.
‘When the first bomb hit the school, one
of the teachers and the principal moved a group of students to the prayer hall
to protect them,’ a medic told Middle East Eye.
‘The principal called the parents and told
them to come and pick up their children. But the second bomb hit that area as
well. Only a small number of those who had taken shelter survived.’
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.
John Maynard Keynes
U.S.
economic outlook cut by Goldman over the Iran war — and the fear goes beyond
oil
Every
10% rise in oil increases inflation by two-tenths, Goldman calculates
Last
Updated: March 12, 2026 at 9:44 a.m. ET
First Published: March
12, 2026 at 6:46 a.m. ET
Things
aren’t looking so great on the economic front 12 days into the U.S.-Israeli
attack on Iran. Not only did oil prices again touch triple-digit levels, there
are worries about supplies of everything from fertilizer to helium, important
not just for party balloons, but semiconductor production.
Goldman
Sachs economists Manuel Abecasis and David Mericle in a new research note
looked at the economic implications of the Iran war on the U.S. economy.
And,
to be clear, the main risk really is oil. “The main transmission channel from
the war with Iran to the U.S. economy is the price of oil,” they said.
Goldman’s oil team just
raised their forecasts for the second time in little over a week, now expecting
the Brent contract to average $98 for March and April – up 40% from the
2025 average.
Their
rule of thumb is that a sustained 10% increase in oil boosts the inflation rate
by 0.2 percentage points, and the core inflation rate by 0.04 points.
Similarly, a sustained 10% rise in oil lowers GDP growth by a tenth, though
that could be tempered depending on how domestic producers respond.
The
impact of tighter financial conditions also weighs on the economy. For every 1
percentage point tightening in their financial conditions index, GDP growth is
hurt by 1 point over the following year. So far, Goldman’s financial conditions
index has tightened by 0.2 percentage points.
But
the economy can be impacted by more than just swings in financial markets. The
Goldman team cite Federal Reserve research that higher geopolitical risk weighs
on both hiring and capital expenditure. When the shocks to geopolitical risk
and oil prices occur simultaneously -– like right now – the impact is twice as
large. Higher geopolitical risk and oil prices also weigh on consumer
confidence, although only briefly, the research finds.
More
U.S. economic
outlook cut by Goldman over the Iran war — and the fear goes beyond oil -
MarketWatch
Morgan
Stanley restricts redemptions at private credit fund after withdrawals surge
March
11, 2026
March
11 (Reuters) - Wall Street banking giant Morgan Stanley has limited redemptions
at one of its private credit funds after investors sought to withdraw almost
11% of shares outstanding, a regulatory filing showed on Wednesday.
A
flurry of bad news following several credit issues in recent months has drawn
fresh scrutiny to the roughly $2 trillion private credit market, as investors
question the health of loan portfolios and the resilience of borrowers in a
higher interest rate environment.
Morgan
Stanley Private Credit said in a letter to investors that the North Haven
Private Income Fund (PIF) returned roughly $169 million or about 45.8% of
investors' tender request for the quarter.
The
Wall Street powerhouse signaled that the private credit industry faces several
challenges, including uncertainty around an M&A recovery, speculation about
credit deterioration and a contraction in asset yields.
Morgan
Stanley said the PIF was invested in 312 borrowers across 44 industries as of
January 31, and that credit fundamentals at the fund remain broadly stable.
"As
marketed and consistent with the disclosure in our private placement
memorandum, we will be fulfilling tender requests for 5% of units outstanding,
as of December 31," the bank's investment management arm said in the
letter.
Morgan
Stanley added that limiting withdrawals will help avoid asset sales during
"periods of market dislocation" and maximize risk-adjusted returns
for investors over time.
"Dispersion
between stronger and weaker credit is increasing," it said.
PRIVATE
CREDIT FEARS GROW
Fears
that AI could erode the earnings power of software companies and weaken their
ability to repay loans are rippling through private credit, a key lender to the
technology sector, prompting investors to reassess exposure, redemption risks
and fundraising prospects, analysts have said.
Concerns
have been compounded by renewed troubles at Blue Owl over asset sales,
triggering a sharp selloff in shares of alternative asset managers with a
footprint in the private credit market.
Meanwhile,
JPMorgan Chase has reduced the value of some loans to private credit funds
after reviewing the impact of market turmoil around software companies, two
people familiar with the situation told Reuters on Wednesday.
Analysts
still point to JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's warning in October of "more
cockroaches" lurking in the credit market as a potential source of
investor anxiety, even though the issues so far do not appear to be systemic.
Earlier
this month, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, disclosed that it has
limited withdrawals from a flagship debt fund after a surge in redemption
requests.
Alternative
asset manager Blackstone on March 2 also disclosed that its private credit
fund, known as BCRED, faced a surge in withdrawals in the first quarter.
Morgan Stanley
restricts redemptions at private credit fund after withdrawals surge
Is
The Private Credit Party Over?
Mar.
12, 2026 7:15 AM ET
Are
there cockroaches still crawling around? Private credit fears are on the rise
again as major funds reveal redemption pressures and banks move to cut their
risk tied to the sector. It's also creating a big dilemma for the industry,
whose loan holdings and values are quite opaque and cannot offer immediate
liquidity due to long-term investor capital. Private credit
crisis is a result of 'really bad underwriting'
Backdrop: The modern private credit industry opened for business
after the global financial crisis, as all types of caps and limits were slapped
on banks. Private credit firms emerged, and initially funded loans to
businesses that weren't able to access financing, but these higher interest
rates ended up being highly attractive to many investors. As funds piled in
from institutions, private equity firms like Blackstone (BX) and Apollo (APO) set up their own
credit shops. Lending expanded to larger companies to fund everything from data
centers to AI startups, and the products were eventually marketed to the retail
crowd.
Eye on the shadows: As long as defaults are low, private credit can
be a lucrative investment, with double-digit returns on lending. The problem is
that there is not much
insight into
how the entire market is leveraged and how much risk is being taken on to
underwrite new loans and capital. If things also go south in a sector that is
highly funded by private credit, like an AI disruption to software companies,
it can also have knock-on effects on the entire system. Apollo aims to
mark private credit daily, eventually
Red flags first appeared in the fall after auto
parts maker First Brands and subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings went
bankrupt. Things escalated last month, as redemption
requests spiraled at
direct lender Blue Owl (OWL), while BlackRock
(BLK) later curbed withdrawals from one of
its largest private credit funds. Now, JPMorgan (JPM) is
reportedly marking down loan
portfolios of
private credit groups, and Morgan Stanley (MS) and Cliffwater
have restricted
redemptions at
their multibillion-dollar private credit funds. Cliffwater gets
redemption requests totaling 14%
Moment of reckoning? "Liquidity never matters until it
matters" is the famous investing maxim, and so far, there has only been
redemption pressure, not a full-blown private credit crisis. While banks have
largely moved away from direct riskier lending, they do finance private credit
firms indirectly in the form of business loans. As of now, it looks like
broader panic has been contained, though there can be significant losses in the
sector, as there are in any credit cycle.
Is The Private
Credit Party Over? | Seeking Alpha
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Perovskite solar cell breakthrough hits among top reported
efficiencies
March 10, 2026
A flexible perovskite-silicon tandem
solar cell has reached a certified 29.88% power conversion efficiency, placing
it among the highest recorded results for this class of device and bringing the
technology within striking distance of the 30% threshold. The result, reported
in a peer-reviewed paper in Nature Communications, was achieved on a device
with an aperture area of 1.04 square centimeters and a steady-state efficiency
of 29.2%. For an industry that has spent years trying to push thin, bendable solar
cells past the mid-20s in efficiency, the gap between lab promise and practical
performance just narrowed considerably.
How the 29.88% Figure Was Reached
The team behind the result built a
monolithic tandem cell that stacks a perovskite absorber on top of a silicon
base, a design that lets each layer capture a different portion of the solar
spectrum. Perovskite materials are prized for their ability to absorb specific
wavelengths very effectively, and the U.S. Department of Energy describes
these semiconducting compounds as a versatile family that can be tuned for
high photovoltaic performance. Pairing a carefully engineered perovskite layer
with crystalline silicon allows the combined device to convert more incoming
energy than either material could alone, because the top cell harvests
higher-energy photons while the bottom cell captures lower-energy light that
passes through.
What distinguishes this device from
earlier high-efficiency tandems is its flexibility. Rigid tandem cells have
posted strong numbers before, but bending a multi-layer stack without cracking
the perovskite or degrading the interface between layers has been a persistent
engineering problem. The researchers addressed this through two specific
technical strategies: achieving phase homogeneity within the perovskite layer
and engineering stress release at the interface between the perovskite and
silicon. In the Nature Communications report, accessible through the journal’s
main article page,
the authors describe how a uniform crystal structure reduces mechanical weak
points while tailored interlayers help dissipate strain.
Phase homogeneity means the perovskite
film maintains a consistent crystal phase across its area, rather than forming
mixed domains that respond differently to stress. Inhomogeneous regions can act
as crack initiation sites when the device is bent. By contrast, a single
dominant phase distributes strain more evenly. At the same time, stress release
at the interface prevents the mismatch in stiffness between perovskite and
silicon from concentrating force in one narrow region. The team used
compositional engineering and interface design to spread mechanical loads,
allowing the stack to flex without severe delamination or fracture.
More
Perovskite solar cell breakthrough hits among top reported efficiencies
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and yet another war weekend and for what? In tomorrow’s update, Iran’s
latest missile surprise and the story of Diego Garcia, the island not some poor
Latin American. Have a great weekend everyone and don’t forget to fill up the
car.
The study of economics does not seem to require any specialised
gifts of an unusually high order.
John Maynard Keynes
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