Baltic
Dry Index. 2056 -01 Brent Crude 112.78
Spot Gold 4360 Spot Silver 65.90
US 2 Year Yield 3.88 +0.09
US Federal Debt. 39.023 trillion
US GDP 31.260 trillion.
It is easy to be conspicuously 'compassionate' if others are being forced to pay the cost.
Murray Rothbard
Little need for my input today, the articles and the experts quoted speak loudly for themselves.
Unless Caesar Trump halts his insane war today, very bad things will begin happening in the global economy from this week.
But Caesar is doubling down on extending his war, possibly putting US Marines onto Iran’s Strait of Hormuz islands later this week!
How far off an international economic
collapse is, is anyone’s guess, but bad is about to get far worse. An industrial
commodities collapse looms.
South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s
Nikkei tumble more than 5% as Trump-Iran threats escalate
Published Sun, Mar 22 2026 8:05 PM
EDT
Asia-Pacific markets sold off
sharply on Monday, with major indexes in Japan and South Korea falling more
than 5%, as investors fled risk assets amid escalating conflict in the
Middle East that has entered its fourth week.
President Donald Trump said on
Saturday that he would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran failed to
fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz — a vital artery for global energy flows
— within 48 hours
Iran pushed back, threatening to
target energy infrastructure and desalination facilities in the Gulf if the
U.S. carries out its ultimatum.
Iran’s Parliament speaker Mohammad
Bagher Ghalibaf said
Saturday that attacks on the country’s power plants would
“immediately” be met with retaliatory strikes on energy and oil infrastructure
across the region.
“Critical infrastructure and energy
and oil infrastructure throughout the region will be considered legitimate
targets and irreversibly destroyed, and oil prices will rise for a long time,”
Ghalibaf said on X.
On Sunday, Ghalibaf extended
the threat to holders of U.S. Treasurys, warning financial entities
that purchase American government bonds and “finance the U.S. military budget”
would be considered legitimate targets, alongside military bases.
Crude prices whipsawed in volatile
trading on Monday. Brent
crude reversed earlier losses to gain 0.65% to $112.68 per barrel as
of 10:57 p.m. EST. The U.S. West
Texas Intermediate was up 0.8% at $99 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs has sharply raised its
oil price forecasts, expecting Brent to average $110 in March-April, up from
$98 previously, and WTI to average $98 in March and $105 in April.
“We now assume that Hormuz flows
remain at only 5% of normal levels for a longer 6-week period before a gradual
1-month recovery,” the Wall Street bank said, noting that prices are
likely to trend higher over that period until investors gain confidence that a
prolonged disruption can be ruled out.
The spread between Brent and WTI
exceeded $14 a barrel, the steepest price difference between the benchmarks for
U.S. and international crude oil in years.
That widening gap may indicate a
“peak intensity of this oil crisis,” Chris Verrone, chief market strategist at
Strategas Research, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” Monday.
Elevated Brent crude prices will likely prompt traders to price in a
longer-lasting conflict, he added.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined nearly
5%, widening losses from the earlier session, while the broad-based Topix
dropped 4.4%.
South Korea’s blue-chip
Kospi plunged more than 6%, and the small-cap Kosdaq fell nearly 5%.
The Korean exchange briefly suspended trading after the Kospi 200 futures
index fell by over 5%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined
2.4%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng
Index and the mainland CSI 300 dropped nearly 2% on the open.
Overnight in the U.S., stock futures
were little changed. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average was flat and the S&P 500 shed 0.1% while
the Nasdaq Composite futures
pulled back by 0.2%.
The three major indices ended last
week lower, with the S&P 500 declining by more than 1.5% and falling below
its 200-day moving average for the first time since May. The Dow, which saw its
first four-week losing streak since 2023, and the Nasdaq each fell around 2%
for the week.
Asia
markets live updates today: March 23
Global LNG supply bracing for a jolt
as supply from West Asia may come to an end in 10 days: Report
23 March 2026
A global energy crunch is fast
approaching, with countries bracing for a sharp drop in liquefied natural gas
(LNG) supplies as shipments from the Gulf near a halt within the next 10 days,
according to a report by the Financial Times.
The report said only a handful of
final cargoes are still en route after exports from Qatar, which accounts
for roughly a fifth of global LNG supply, were disrupted following Iran’s
blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and missile strikes on the Ras Laffan
processing hub.
Many shipments that had already
departed before the conflict are still reaching buyers, delaying the full
impact. But once these deliveries are exhausted, import-dependent economies are
expected to face immediate shortages and sharply higher prices, the Financial
Times reported.
Supply shock already hitting markets
The disruption has already pushed
LNG prices significantly higher. According to the Financial Times, Asian
benchmark prices have doubled since the conflict began, reaching around $23 per
million British thermal units (MMBtu).
Higher shipping costs, driven by
longer routes and elevated charter rates, are compounding the pressure on
buyers, the report added.
Pakistan among the worst affected
Pakistan is emerging as one of the
most vulnerable economies, the Financial Times reported. Nearly 99% of its LNG
imports came from Qatar last year, and its last shipments arrived in the early
days of the conflict.
Its two LNG terminals have scaled
down operations and are expected to stop gas dispatch entirely by the end of
the month.
“After that we’ll run dry,” Iqbal
Ahmed, chair and chief executive of Pakistan GasPort, told the FT. “We do not
know when the next cargo will come in.”
Efforts to secure alternative
supplies have so far failed, with offers from Europe, the US, Oman and other
regions proving too expensive, according to the report.
Asia braces for shortages
Other Asian economies are also under
strain. Bangladesh has introduced gas-rationing measures, including shutting
universities, while Taiwan has moved to secure replacement cargoes to avoid
immediate disruption.
Even so, risks remain. Kevin Li from
the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center warned of “severe energy shortages”
if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, according to the Financial Times.
Japan and China are expected to turn
to spot markets and alternative fuels such as coal, though buyers are
proceeding cautiously.
“Our plan is to buy in the spot
market from JKM to cover supplies,” one Japanese LNG trader told the Financial
Times.
Long-term damage to the supply
Even if shipping through the Strait
of Hormuz resumes, supply constraints are likely to persist due to damage to
Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility.
Qatar’s energy minister Saad
Al-Kaabi said around 17% of the country’s LNG capacity could remain offline for
three to five years.
“This means that we will be
compelled to declare force majeure for up to five years on some long-term LNG
contracts,” Al-Kaabi said, as quoted by the Financial Times.
A widening global energy risk
With nearly 90% of Gulf LNG exports
typically heading to Asia, the disruption is exposing vulnerabilities across
global energy supply chains, as per the report.
Global
LNG supply bracing for a jolt as supply from West Asia may come to an end in 10
days: Report
Iran US war live updates: Blasts
cause fire near Tehran; IEA chief says 40 energy assets 'severely damaged'
23 March 2026
Columns of fire and smoke reportedly
rose over the city of Karaj, west of Tehran in Iran, following an air strike,
Al Jazeera reported.
More than an hour after reports of
explosions in Tehran, a thick plume of black smoke could still be seen
billowing from a single point in the eastern part of the Iranian capital, AFP
reported.
US President Donald Trump wrote on
his Truth Social website early Monday: “PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, TO PUT IT
MILDLY!!!”
The top commander of the US
military’s Central Command said the campaign against Iran is “ahead or on
plan," as the Israeli military began what it called "a wide-scale
wave of strikes targeting Iranian terror regime infrastructure” early Monday.
US Navy Admiral Brad Cooper gave his
first one-on-one interview of the war to the Farsi-language satellite network
Iran International, which aired it early Monday. Iranian media reported new
airstrikes targeting Tehran without identifying the sites being hit.
Indonesia is eyeing up to 80
trillion rupiah ($4.7 billion) in savings to cushion its economy from the
fallout of the war in the Middle East, according to the government.
Southeast Asia's largest economy is
also mulling fuel-saving measures, including one day of remote work per week
for government and certain public-sector workers, as US-Israeli strikes on Iran
and Tehran's retaliatory response in the Gulf have sent global oil prices
soaring.
UAE airlines are running a limited
flight schedule to key destinations as weather disruptions and regional
conditions continue to affect operations. Passengers are advised to check
flight status before travelling, follow official airline updates, and only go
to airports with confirmed bookings.
Adverse weather is expected to
impact flights over the coming days. Airlines, including flydubai and Air
Arabia, recommend allowing extra time for journeys, keeping contact details up
to date, and using online booking tools to rebook or request refunds to ensure
a safe and smooth travel experience.
Iran's media has confirmed one dead
in an attack on a radio broadcaster in the coastal region, AFP reported.
Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia has
accused US President Donald Trump of “sending our sons and daughters to war”
because he is still unable to accept that he lost the 2020 election.
----The Iranian Red Crescent
Society (IRCS) said that its emergency personnel are at the site of a
residential area that was destroyed in an air attack in northwestern Urmia,
near Iran's borders with Turkey and Iraq.
IRCS said relief workers were
providing aid to “injured compatriots”. It was not immediately clear how many
people were wounded.
The Fars news agency is now
reporting that at least one child was killed in the strike on the residential
building in the city of Khorramabad, located west of Tehran.
According to Fars, several people
were wounded.
The Indian rupee fell to a record
low on Monday as an escalating Middle East conflict stoked concerns about
sustained disruption to energy supplies, threatening the outlook for Asia's
third-largest economy.
The rupee fell to 93.84 against the
US dollar, eclipsing its previous low of 93.7350 hit on Friday.
Asian currencies were down between
0.1% to 0.8% as hopes for an off-ramp to hostilities dimmed over the weekend,
with Washington and Tehran trading threats as the war entered its fourth week.
Australia and Singapore will ramp up
coordination to ensure uninterrupted trade in key energy supplies, including
diesel and liquefied natural gas, and bolster supply chain resilience, the
leaders of both countries said in a joint statement on Monday.
"We are committed to working
together to strengthen energy supply chain resilience, including by deepening
regional cooperation, accelerating renewable energy transition, addressing
unjustified import and export restrictions, and maintaining open trade
flows," the statement said.
Major Asian stock markets fell
sharply on Monday after the US and Iran threatened to intensify hostilities as
the war entered its fourth week.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was down by 4.8%
in early trading, while the Kospi in South Korea was more than 5.5% lower.
----IEA chief Fatih Birol has
revealed that at least 40 energy assets have been everely' damaged in the
Mideast war so far.
More
Middle East crisis live: IEA chief
says Iran war energy crunch worse than 1970s oil crises and Ukraine war
combined
Fatih Birol says world is losing 11m
barrels of oil per day, more than the 1973 and 1979 energy shocks combined;
IRGC threatens to completely close strait of Hormuz if Trump acts on
infrastructure threats
Mon 23 Mar 2026 04.52 GMT
IEA will release more stockpiled oil
if needed, chief says
The International Energy Agency is
consulting with governments in Asia and Europe on the release of more
stockpiled oil “if necessary” due to the Iran war, its executive
director has said.
“If it is necessary, of course, we
will do it,” Fatih Birol said on Monday. “We look at the
conditions, we will analyse, assess the markets and discuss with our member
countries.”
IEA member nations agreed on 11
March to release
a record 400m barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles to combat the
spike in global crude prices. The drawdown represented 20% of overall stocks.
There would not be a specific crude
price level to trigger another release, Birol said in an address to Australia’s
national press club in the capital of Canberra, Reuters reports.
He said:
A stock release will help to comfort
the markets, but this is not the solution. It will only help to reduce the pain
in the economy.
Birol is beginning a world tour in
Canberra because the Asia Pacific is at the forefront of the oil crisis, he
says, given its reliance on oil and other crucial products such as fertiliser
and helium transiting the strait of Hormuz.
After meeting Australian prime
minister Anthony Albanese, Birol is to travel to Japan this week
before a Group of Seven meeting.
More
Even the best-case scenario for
energy markets is disastrous
Whatever happens, high prices will
outlive the Iran war
Mar 22nd 2026
The third Gulf war is now in
its fourth week. Every day that Iranian strikes on ships keep the Strait of
Hormuz shut, around a fifth of the world’s output of oil and liquefied natural
gas (lng) remains stranded. Every day, therefore, traders update how much
supply is lost for the year. As their estimates rise, so do energy prices.
Brent crude, at $112 a barrel, is 54% dearer than before hostilities began. Gas
prices in Europe are up by 85%.
More, subscription required.
Even the best-case scenario for energy markets is disastrous
In other news.
Diesel prices in Germany surge to
near record high
March 21, 2026
The price of diesel in Germany has
risen by more than 12 cents in the space of two days amid the war in the Middle
East, according to data from the ADAC motoring association.
On Friday, the nationwide daily
average price for a litre of diesel stood at €2.291 ($2.655), according to ADAC
data.
That is just 3 cents less than the
all-time high recorded four years ago, after the outbreak of the war in
Ukraine.
The price of E10 premium petrol also
continued to rise, with a litre costing €2.086 on Friday, up 4.2 cents compared
to on Wednesday.
On Friday, a litre of diesel was
54.5 cents more expensive than on the day before the US and Israel launched the
war against Iran, and a litre of petrol was 30.8 cents more expensive.
The increase has been driven by
higher crude oil prices linked to the war, though there has also been criticism
of oil companies for raising prices disproportionately relative to oil costs.
The first prices on Saturday pointed
to a slight further rise in diesel and relatively stable prices for E10.
However, recent volatility makes short-term forecasts highly uncertain.
Diesel prices in Germany surge to near record high
Work from home, drive slower and
don’t use gas cookers: IEA advice on weathering the global energy crisis
Published Fri, Mar 20 2026 8:00 AM
EDT
Supply measures alone won’t be
enough to mitigate “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global
oil market” amid an escalating conflict in the Middle East, the International
Energy Agency warned on Friday.
Instead of waiting for disrupted
production to recover, lowering demand could ease pressure on consumers and
help bring prices down more quickly.
Minimizing road and air transport,
working from home where possible, and switching to electric cooking could
significantly help cushion the shock for consumers, the agency said.
Heightened geopolitical risk has
rattled traders, sending not only crude prices higher but also sharply
increasing costs for refined products such as diesel and jet fuel, which
directly impact transportation, logistics and consumer prices.
Oil prices have surged more
than 40% since the start of the U.S.-Iran war on Feb. 28, reaching their highest levels since 2022 as supply has
been severely disrupted, mostly due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The strait is a narrow maritime
corridor off Iran’s coast that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman
and normally carries about a fifth of global oil consumption.
Countries have already begun tapping
strategic petroleum reserves, with hundreds of millions of barrels slated for
release.
The IEA last week agreed to
release 400 million barrels of oil to address the supply disruption triggered by the Iran war —
the largest such action in the organization’s history — without providing a
timeline for when the stocks would enter the market.
Lowering oil demand
While policymakers continue to
manage supply disruptions, coordinated efforts to reduce consumption could
provide the fastest relief.
“Addressing demand is a critical and
immediate tool to reduce pressure [on] consumers by improving affordability and
supporting energy security,” the IAE said Friday, as it laid out a range of measures that can be taken by households and businesses to
lower demand.
Among the most impactful steps are
encouraging remote work where possible, increasing carpooling and public
transit use, and cutting back on non-essential air travel.
Measures focus primarily on road
transport, which accounts for around 45% of global oil demand.
Working from home where possible
reduces fuel demand for commuting, while lowering speed limits, shifting from
private cars to public transport, and alternating private vehicle access in
cities, could further reduce congestion and fuel consumption, the agency
said.
Measures to shift liquefied
petroleum gas (LPG) use away from transport and towards essential applications
like cooking can also help keep prices lower, as can adopting alternative clean
cooking solutions that reduce reliance on LPG.
More
How to weather the global energy crisis: IEA
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
West
Asia conflict may trigger global inflation shock if disruptions spread; India
relatively insulated: SBI Research
The
report cautioned that escalating geopolitical tensions could create ripple
effects across energy markets, trade and financial systems globally
Updated
- March 21, 2026 at 03:18 PM.
A
widening conflict in the West Asia could trigger a fresh wave of global
inflation if it spreads across supply chains, asset classes and jurisdictions,
though India may remain relatively insulated compared with many economies,
according to a report by SBI Research.
The
report cautioned that escalating geopolitical tensions could create ripple
effects across energy markets, trade and financial systems globally.
"Should the raging conflict in West Asia proliferate asymmetrically across
jurisdictions, asset classes and supply chains, the cumulative shock could
trigger a new wave of inflation globally: India still a notable
exception," the report said.
The
report added that while the immediate economic impact may be limited,
disruptions to trade routes, supply chains and business sentiment could have
broader implications for the global economy. "The immediate inflationary
impact of widening conflict in the West Asia is likely to be limited. But
potential trade and supply chain disruptions, weakening business sentiment and
elevated uncertainty could have major consequences for the global
economy," it said.
For
India, the report noted that the key channels of impact could be remittances
from Gulf countries and crude oil imports.
"The
impact on India's economy may be a short-term impact on remittances and crude
oil imports," the report said.India receives a significant share of its
overseas remittances from the Gulf region, making oil price dynamics an
important factor.
"India's
personal remittances increased 15 per cent to $138 billion in FY25... GCC
countries account for around 38 per cent of the total remittances that India
receives," the report noted. Energy security is another critical aspect,
as India remains heavily dependent on imported crude.
"India
imports nearly 90 per cent of its crude oil requirements," the report
said, adding that a significant portion of global oil trade passes through the
Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transit route. At the same time, the report
highlighted that India has taken steps to diversify its crude sourcing in
recent years.
"India...
has strategically shifted to import oil from more than 40 countries, more from
Russia since 2022," it said, which helps reduce supply risks.
The
report also warned that higher oil prices could have broader macroeconomic
consequences if the conflict prolongs. It is estimated that "for every
~$10 per barrel increase in crude oil prices may widen the CAD by 36 basis
points and lead to a 35-40 basis point rise in inflation."
Overall,
the report suggested that while global markets could face renewed inflationary
pressures if geopolitical tensions escalate further, India's diversified energy
sourcing and policy responses may help cushion the impact compared with many
other economies.
Recession is guaranteed if crude oil hits this price... and Wall Street
warns it is alarmingly close
Published: 05:08, 21 March
2026 | Updated: 05:09, 21 March 2026
America’s economy is holding up well despite surging oil prices - for now
- but alarm bells are ringing on Wall Street.
Iran has closed off a key oil export route,
disrupting global crude supplies and making everything from gasoline to airline
tickets much, much more expensive.
A survey published this week found that
many experts see the war’s impact on the economy as limited as long as oil
prices don’t stay too high for too long.
The Wall Street Journal polled economists to see
how high oil prices would have to rise - and how long they'd have to stay
elevated - to push the US economy towards recession.
They said that oil would have to stay around $138 a
barrel for about three months to push the US economy towards a recession.
So far, the Iran war has lasted almost three weeks and
US oil prices have been hovering around $95 - compared to an average price of
$65 in February.
‘I think that if oil were to hold above $100 for
the next three months, we’d likely see very challenging economic conditions in
the US,’ Tim Rezvan, managing director oil & gas equity research at KeyBanc
Capital Markets, told the Daily Mail.
Rezvan emphasized that even if the war were to end
in a week, the lasting economic damage from higher oil prices could pose
long-term challenges for the US economy
The Wall Street Journal asked 50 economists for
their estimates on recession and oil prices on March 16-18.
Their answers ranged from four weeks to 55 weeks -
or an average estimate of 14 weeks - that oil prices would have to stay
elevated to bump the US towards recession.
When asked how high oil prices would need to go to
lift the probability of a US recession, responses ranged from $90 a barrel
to $200 - with an average estimate of $138.
According to oil market expert Dan Doyle, founder
of Reliance Well Services and Arena Resources, domestic US oil production will
not save us.
‘The longer the war goes on, the greater the
recessionary risk,” Doyle told the Daily Mail’
Economist Robert Fry said oil would need to be at
$125 for eight weeks for the economy to be headed for recession.
‘My forecast is contingent on the assumption that
the Strait of Hormuz will be fully open to tanker traffic by
mid-April,’ Fry told the Wall Street Journal. ‘If it isn’t, oil prices
will go much higher, and I will put a recession in my forecast.’
The economists see the probability of a US
recession in the next 12 months at 32 percent - that’s up modestly from the 27
percent probability in the January survey.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Scientists develop bio-based graphene foams that can be used to
build aerospace objects
March 21, 2026
The search for materials that combine
high performance with environmental responsibility has led researchers toward
nature-inspired solutions. Among the most promising outcomes of this approach
is the development of bio-based graphene foams.
These are lightweight, porous structures
engineered using renewable resources and advanced nanotechnology
In the EU project Bio.3DGREEN, 14
partners under the coordination of Laser Zentrum Hannover e.V. (LZH) have
developed graphene foams from renewable raw materials.
Sustainable lightweight materials for automotive, aerospace
applications
They aim to create a sustainable
alternative to conventional damping and lightweight materials for
automotive, aerospace and marine applications.
These materials reflect the efficiency
of natural systems while offering exceptional mechanical and functional
properties for industrial use.
Many biological systems—such as spongy
bone or plant tissues—exhibit remarkable strength despite being highly porous.
Scientists have drawn inspiration from these structures to design
graphene-based foams with similar characteristics. By organizing graphene into
a three-dimensional network, researchers have created materials that can endure
repeated compression and still regain their original shape.
Bio-based graphene foams
What makes this innovation particularly
significant is the shift toward bio-derived precursors. Instead of relying on
fossil-based chemicals, renewable sources are used to produce these foams,
reducing environmental impact and supporting sustainable manufacturing
practices.
One of the defining advantages of
bio-based graphene foams is their ability to combine low density with high
mechanical resilience. These materials can absorb mechanical shocks
efficiently, making them suitable for applications where energy dissipation is
critical. Unlike conventional foams that may degrade over time, graphene-based
foams maintain their structural integrity even after repeated stress
cycles, according to reports.
This balance between flexibility and
strength positions them as strong candidates for replacing traditional
materials in demanding environments.
Since this material is being used in
additive manufacturing for the first time, developing the printing process is
challenging: the paste made from coated metal particles and plant oil requires
a specially developed feeding system. Additionally, the team will determine the
optimal laser wavelength for precise material processing, reported Nanowerk.
With the Bio.3DGREEN project, the
partners aim to demonstrate that additive manufacturing with
graphene foams can be a high-performance and sustainable alternative for the
production of shock-absorbing, sound-reducing, and/or lightweight structures.
As research progresses, bio-based
graphene foams are expected to gain increasing attention in sectors that demand
both performance and sustainability. Advances in fabrication techniques and
growing environmental awareness will likely accelerate their transition from
laboratory innovation to commercial application.
Bio-based graphene foams represent a new
generation of materials that successfully merge strength, flexibility, and
sustainability. By drawing inspiration from nature and utilizing renewable
resources, they offer a forward-looking solution to many industrial challenges.
With continued development, these materials could play a key role in shaping a
more sustainable and efficient future.
Scientists develop bio-based graphene foams that can be used to build
aerospace objects
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Gold and Silver have always had value, never gone to zero. Can
you say the same for stocks and bonds?
Mark Skousen
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