Baltic
Dry Index. 2370 +55
Brent Crude 84.03
Spot
Gold 2170 US 2 Year Yield 4.61 +0.03
The advocates of public control cannot do without inflation. They need it in order to finance their policy of reckless spending and of lavishly subsidizing and bribing the voters.
Ludwig von Mises.
In the stock casinos, is the bubble ending? Is the easy money now getting made in the bitcoin bubble? Is cash now exiting the AI tech bubble for bitcoin?
After all, as new cash chases after the bitcoin mania, its price must soar, but what happens to bitcoin when new money stops arriving to drive up the bitcoin price?
Not to worry the punters will just rotate back into more AI bubble again wont they, provided they can find buyers for bitcoin at the top.
To this old dinosaur stock and commodity follower since 1968, I sense deep misgiving in the stocks and bitcoin bubbles, who or what to trust?
What if what’s shaping up to be America’s
nastiest presidential campaign of all time, poisons stocks, bitcoin and the dollar? To defend the dollar the Fed might have to
raise interest rates if the rest of the world starts to lose faith in the fiat
dollar under a President Trump or President Biden Joe Biden.
What happens to stocks and bitcoin mania then?
Most manias end badly with a return much closer to real intrinsic value. But bitcoin has no intrinsic value, just a highly volatile dream value.
Asia markets mixed as Wall Street rally falters;
India inflation data on deck
UPDATED THU, MAR 14 2024 1:37 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Thursday
after Wall Street’s tech-fueled rally dissipated, with investors focused on
Japan’s spring wage negotiations and India’s wholesale inflation data.
Japan’s wage negotiations wrapped
up on Wednesday, with the first overall estimate due out on Friday. Reports from local
outlets have indicated that large firms offered “major” wage
hikes.
Strong wage increases could clear
the way for the Bank of Japan to start unwinding its ultra easy monetary
policy, with the central bank due to meet next Monday and Tuesday.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 reversed
losses to rise 0.14% as markets price in the possibility of the BOJ tightening
policy. The broad-based Topix saw a larger gain of 0.3%
South Korea’s Kospi climbed
0.81%, while the Kosdaq index slipped 0.43%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost
0.92% after climbing earlier in the day, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was
flat.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 ended
the day 0.2% lower, despite a rally by miners on the back of gold’s continued
strength.
Overnight in the U.S., major indexes ended mixed
with tech giants Nvidia falling
1.1%, Meta slipping
0.8% and Apple dropping
1.2%, after February
U.S. inflation data came in nearly in line with expectations.
“I think it was a relief to see
the [headline] CPI number yesterday, but people are still cautious about the
underlying data,” said Ayako Yoshioka, senior portfolio manager at Wealth
Enhancement Group. “In the short-term, the macro narrative around the Federal
Reserve is going to be the front and center issue.”
The S&P500 closed
0.19% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite lost
0.54%. In contrast, The Dow Jones
Industrial Average added
0.1%.
Asia
markets: India WPI inflation, Japan shunto (cnbc.com)
European
markets set for lower open ahead of another key U.S. inflation reading
UPDATED THU, MAR 14 2024 1:30 AM EDT
European
markets were headed for a lower open Thursday with investors keeping an eye out
for another key U.S. inflation reading for February.
The producer price index, which
measures wholesale inflation, is set for release before the U.S. trading
session kicks off. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate headline PPI to
have climbed by 0.3% in February, or 0.2% after excluding food and energy
prices.
The PPI report is the last major
piece of economic data to be released prior to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next
policy meeting on March 19-20.
U.S.
stock futures inched higher on Wednesday night while Asia-Pacific
markets were largely range-bound on Thursday, with investors
focused on Japan’s spring wage negotiations and India’s wholesale inflation
data.
European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Finally, China. More trouble in the rapidly
failing property sector. This failed trust sounds like a Ponzi scheme to me.
Elderly retirees face big losses after Chinese trust
goes bust, reflecting turbulent economy
March
13, 2024
Some investors in a troubled
trust fund in China are facing financial ruin under a government plan to return
a fraction of their money, casualties of a slump in the property industry and a
broader economic slowdown.
Sichuan Trust, headquartered
in the southwest city of Chengdu, announced it
was insolvent in 2020, stricken by sketchy accounting and failed investments in
shopping malls and other projects. A deadline earlier this month to accept a
20%-60% “haircut” or loss on their investments has left some investors in deep
financial trouble, according to public announcements and AP interviews with five people affected.
China’s economy, the world’s second largest,
depends heavily on real estate development to drive growth and create jobs.
Property prices and sales have languished after a crackdown on what leaders
viewed as dangerous levels of borrowing, causing dozens of developers to
default on their debts.
At the National
People's Congress session in Beijing last week,
officials pledged to do more to protect investors. Premier Li Qiang said China
would work to control risks and resolve the property crisis.
For the people who put their
life savings into Sichuan Trust and similar entities, it's likely too late.
Around 300 of more than 8,000 investors refused to accept a government plan and
are looking for legal help, a relative of one investor said. A few who
attempted to come to Beijing during the congress to air their grievances were
blocked by police, the relative said.
The ruling Communist
Party faces a dilemma: Debt is a
problem, but falling home prices lead people to scrimp on spending. That
squeezes companies' sales, so they lay off workers and cut back on investment.
The result: slowing growth and less wealth to go around.
Inevitably, someone will end
up losing out as China’s debt crisis unwinds, said Tsinghua University finance
professor Michael Pettis.
---- Trusts are a cross between a bank and an investment
fund. Some advertised their offerings as reliable, high interest
government-backed accounts. They're actually private entities that fund
projects like factories and shopping malls. Weak disclosure requirements
allowed them to use money from new investors to pay what they owed earlier
ones, a set-up somewhat like a Ponzi scheme.
“Financial supervision was relatively
loose in the past, so the design of these products, including systems for
protecting investors’ rights and interests, had serious issues,” said Zhu
Zhenxin, chief analyst at Rushi Finance Institute in Beijing. “If underlying
assets of financial products won't generate enough returns to pay such high
interest rates, default is inevitable.”
The troubles at Sichuan Trust first surfaced
when the government began restricting new sales of trust products in 2020.
Without revenue from new investors, it couldn't pay its outstanding debts.
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
UK
economy takes first steps out of recession as growth returns in January
WEDNESDAY 13 MARCH 2024 7:01
AM
The UK took its first steps out of
recession after the economy returned to growth in January, raising hopes that
last year’s contraction is already over.
The UK economy grew 0.2 per cent in
January, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), in
line with economists’ expectations. This followed a 0.1 per cent fall in
December.
The expansion was driven by a strong performance
from the UK’s all-important services sector, which expanded 0.2 per cent
helping to offset a 0.2 per cent fall in production.
Within services, retailers posted a strong month after a poor festive period. Human, health and social activity also saw an expansion of 0.6 per cent in January.
Construction meanwhile
jumped 1.1 per cent in January as the outlook for housebuilders improved
on the back of hopes that interest rates
will soon start falling.
“The economy picked up in January with strong growth in retail and wholesaling. Construction also performed well with housebuilders having a good month, having been subdued for much of the last year,” Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS said.
“These were partially
offset by falls in TV and film production, lawyers and the often-erratic
pharmaceutical industry,” she continued.
Yael Selfin, chief
economist at KPMG, said that the recovery was “relatively broad-based”. Citing
forward looking indicators, such as recent business
surveys, Selfin said there would be “a further
strengthening of momentum in February”.
The
figures will raise hopes that the UK is already moving out of the shallow recession it fell into in the second half of last year. A
technical recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
More
UK takes first steps out of recession as growth
returns in January (cityam.com)
Property
titans seek clues in Cannes for market turnaround
By Iain Withers March 13, 2024 6:10 AM GMT
CANNES, France, March 13 (Reuters) - The global
real estate industry is scrabbling around for reasons to be optimistic in the
grip of its biggest crash in more than a decade, with developers and investors
talking up the prospect of a recovery - just not quite yet.
Held this week in Cannes on the French Riviera, the
MIPIM property conference unfolds against a backdrop of falling commercial real
estate (CRE) prices and developers wondering what to do with offices emptied
out by the pandemic.
As an expected 20,000
investors, developers and agents began arriving, delegates gathered around
miniature models of planned developments and met clients on
company-commandeered yachts. Many were busy discussing the market fallout,
others trying to strike deals.
Several of the largest real estate investors - including U.S.
giants LaSalle, Greystar, Hines and Federated Hermes (FHI.N), opens new tab, France's AEW and Germany's
Patrizia (PATGn.DE), opens new tab - told Reuters they
saw tentative signs of deal activity rebounding.
But some also struck a note
of caution.
"There's a lot of hot air being pushed through the
Croisette," Philip La Pierre, head of Europe at LaSalle Investment
Management, said at the conference, referring to Cannes' beachside thoroughfare
thronged with estate agents. "So you've got to navigate that quite
carefully."
A punishing rise in borrowing costs and empty offices have
combined to sour many property
investments, although sectors such as data centres and logistics have held
up much better.
European commercial capital
values fell 13.9% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2023, the biggest drop
since the global financial crisis in 2009, according to MSCI Real Assets data
shows.
LaSalle's La Pierre reckons 30% of European office space is
"probably obsolete."
Prices in American cities are down sharply too as vacancy rates in
the likes of San Francisco and Los Angeles near 30%.
Rather than realise losses, investors are sitting on the
sidelines.
Commercial property deal
volumes in Europe collapsed by half in 2023 to 166 billion euros ($181
billion), and it was the worst year for office sales on record, said MSCI,
which has been collating the data since 2007.
Despite this, some investors believe a turnaround is near if
central banks begin cutting interest rates, easing companies' debt burdens.
"In general, there's a renewed sense of confidence and
enthusiasm for the year ahead," James Seppala, head of real estate in
Europe for the world's largest commercial property owner, Blackstone (BX.N), opens new tab, said ahead of the event.
---- "The
worst of the market is now unsellable," said Jose Pellicer, head of
investment strategy at investor M&G Real Estate.
Europe has been less afflicted by visible signs of property
distress than the U.S. and China, but sharp sell-offs have occurred for exposed
lenders in Germany, opens new tab and Sweden.
Austrian property tycoon Rene Benko's Signa Group - the co-owner
of New York's Chrysler Building - collapsed in
November, rocking confidence further.
"There is a big real estate crisis ongoing which is
global," said Antoine Flamarion, co-founder of investors Tikehau
Capital (TKOO.PA), opens new tab. "It might take some
time to play out."
More
Property titans seek clues in Cannes for market
turnaround | Reuters
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Today, more pseudo-science, it seems to me.
Covid pandemic unleashed a ‘pervasive danger’,
suggests harrowing new study – and it’s not the virus
March 12, 2024
The Covid-19 pandemic and its response
may have sent a wave of chronic stress and inflammation rippling through
society that impaired our collective decision-making, a new study suggests.
The theory comes on the four-year
anniversary of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaring the global
Covid-19 outbreak to be a pandemic.
The pandemic saw the global mortality
rate jump but hidden in these statistics are the indirect effects of the virus,
many of which we are still living with today.
One of which is our physiological
response to stressful events such as Covid. Stressors can cause chronic
inflammation in our bodies. Chronic inflammation is linked to serious
conditions such as cardiovascular disease and cancer – and may also affect our
thinking and behaviour.
And, according to a new hypothesis
published in Frontiers in Science, the negative impacts of
stress are not confined to individuals.
“We propose that stress,
inflammation, and consequently impaired cognition in individuals can scale up
to communities and populations,” explained lead author Prof Yoram Vodovotz of
the University of Pittsburgh, USA.
“This could affect the
decision-making and behaviour of entire societies, impair our cognitive ability
to address complex issues like climate change, social unrest, and infectious
disease – and ultimately lead to a self-sustaining cycle of societal dysfunction
and environmental degradation,” he added.
The findings have implications for
the purveyors of potentially stressful information, such as public health
bodies and the 24-hour news cycle.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, a River Mersey tidal barrage.
Well maybe, but I’m sceptical that the economics will work out.
World's
largest tidal barrage energy project proposed in the UK
Paul Ridden March 12, 2024
A plan to
build a barrier across the Mersey is starting to take shape. If it goes ahead,
the ambitious project would becomes the largest tidal range facility in the
world, while also offering pedestrians and cyclists safe passage across the
river.
Plans
appear to have been floating around for a while now. Authorities in Liverpool
note that first mentions date back as far as 1924, followed by reports and
viability studies in the 1980s. Politician John McDonnell recently recalled that
he attended his first meeting on a Mersey barrage proposal back in 2015, but
things seem to be moving forward at last.
"For as long as I can
remember, there has been talk of building a tidal barrage on the Mersey,"
said Liverpool City Region's mayor, Steve Rotheram, in 2022 as he inked a collaboration deal with
South Korean state water company K-Water. "Thanks to devolution – we’re
working to make it a reality. There are still huge technical and financial
challenges to overcome but Mersey Tidal Power has the potential to provide
enough clean, green, predictable energy to power up to one million homes for
over a century."
K-Water has been operating
the Sihwa Lake Tidal Power Station since 2011, which was installed on a
12.5-km-long (7.76-mile) sea wall originally constructed to mitigate flooding
and for irrigation of surrounding farmland. The facility features 10 submerged
turbines rated at 25.4 MW each that generate power twice a day at high tide
(outflow is sluiced away through gates). This one-way system has an annual
production capacity of 552.7 GWh of electricity.
Interestingly,
a barrage proposal across the Mersey between Dingle on the Liverpool side and
New Ferry on the Wirral bank was abandoned
in 2011 due to medium-term profitability
concerns. Rotheram brought the scheme back to life as part of his Mayoral
election campaign in 2017, and development cash was injected into the
project in
early 2020.
In addition to
being the first pedestrian and cycling route to join the two regions over the
river, the structure will also house 28 turbines driven by the flow of water in
and out of the Mersey – generating electricity "using the energy available
from the difference in height of the tides, which can be up to 10 meters (33
ft) in Liverpool." Total capacity is expected to be 700 MW, which would
make this the largest tidal range scheme in the world.
The design will
include sluice gates to allow water through when needed, which could help
mitigate increased risks of flooding caused by climate change, as well as
marine navigation locks to help keep the busy river traffic flowing.
More
World's largest tidal barrage energy project proposed
in the UK (newatlas.com)
Finally, our
latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
The causes of all panics, crashes and depressions can be summed up in only four words: the misuse of credit.
Ludwig von Mises.
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