Saturday, 2 March 2024

Special Update 2/3/2024 AI Madness Mania. 1 Trillion Every 100 Days.

Baltic Dry Index. 2203 +90            Brent Crude 83.55

Spot Gold 2082                  U S 2 Year Yield 4.54 -0.10

"In reading The History of Nations, we find that, like individuals, they have their whims and their peculiarities, their seasons of excitement and recklessness, when they care not what they do. We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first."

Charles MackayExtraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

In the stock casinos, more AI mania, even as a new US banking crisis looms, more countries drop into recession  and the USA attempts to become the North American Argentina.


European markets close higher as euro zone inflation falls less than expected; Daimler Truck up 18%

UPDATED FRI, MAR 1 2024 11:54 AM EST

LONDON — European markets closed higher on Friday to start the new trading month after a winning February, as investors assessed fresh inflation data out of the euro zone.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 ended the session up 0.6%. Tech stocks led gains, adding 1.6%, while insurance fell 0.7%.

February’s flash euro zone inflation reading showed the headline consumer price index fell to 2.6% from January’s 2.8%. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a headline reading of 2.5%.

The European Central Bank will be monitoring Friday’s reading closely as it charts its course of future interest rate cuts, with economic growth remaining stagnant across much of the bloc. The market expects the ECB to begin cutting in June, alongside the Fed.

Earnings were the key driver of individual share price action in Europe, with GrifolsDaimler Truck and ITV all posting double-digit gains on the back of strong results.

In Asia-Pacific, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed at a fresh record high on Friday, just short of the 40,000 level, while Chinese markets rose on the back of fresh manufacturing data from the mainland.

Stateside, U.S. stocks were higher after Wall Street wrapped a fourth consecutive winning month, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite reaching its first closing record since November 2021.

Europe markets open to close: U.S., euro zone inflation data in focus (cnbc.com)

 

Nasdaq surges more than 1% to take out 2021 record, S&P 500 closes above 5100 for the first time: Live updates

UPDATED FRI, MAR 1 2024 4:24 PM EST

The Nasdaq Composite rose to an all-time high Friday, surpassing its 2021 record, as investors bet that megacap technology stocks were the best way to play slowing inflation and a coming artificial intelligence boom.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 1.14% to 16,274.94, notching a new high of 16,302.24 during the session. A day earlier, the index closed at its first record since November 2021. The S&P 500 added 0.80% to 5,137.08 for its first close above the 5,100 threshold. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 90.99 points, or 0.23%, to 39,087.38.

Chipmaking giant Nvidia, which has led the tech rally by surging more than 260% over the last 12 months, was up another 4% Friday. Meta also jumped more than 2% for the day.

On a weekly basis, the Nasdaq added 1.74%, while the S&P 500, which also popped to a record close on Thursday, advanced 0.95%. Both indexes notched their seventh positive week over the last eight. The 30-stock Dow is the laggard, down 0.11%.

The Nasdaq was the last of the major U.S. stock benchmarks to reach a record close this year, when it achieved the milestone Thursday. Enthusiasm over AI has lifted mega-cap tech stocks – and the broader market – through 2023 and into this year. Slowing inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s ensuing pivot toward rate cuts forecasted for later in 2024, have also contributed to the Nasdaq’s recovery from a difficult 2022.

We’re seeing this big run up in tech because there’s a massive emphasis on what it might be — there’s so much emphasis on AI and this big sort-of redux of the late 90s,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group.

“People [now] just completely disregard the rest of the market. And that’s generally does not turn out well,” Cox added.

Stocks gained even as troubled regional bank New York Community Bancorp declined 25.9% after the lender announced a leadership change and disclosed issues with its internal controls. The bank is already down more than 65% in 2024, with some investors concerned it is a sign of a wider real estate shakeout ahead.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Finally, get gold and anything with intrinsic value. The end of the Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money approaches.


The U.S. national debt is rising by $1 trillion about every 100 days

The debt load of the U.S. is growing at a quicker clip in recent months, increasing about $1 trillion nearly every 100 days.

The nation’s debt permanently crossed over to $34 trillion on Jan. 4, after briefly crossing the mark on Dec. 29, according to data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury. It reached $33 trillion on Sept. 15, 2023, and $32 trillion on June 15, 2023, hitting this accelerated pace. Before that, the $1 trillion move higher from $31 trillion took about eight months.

U.S. debt, which is the amount of money the federal government borrows to cover operating expenses, now stands at nearly $34.4 billion, as of Wednesday. Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett believes the 100-day pattern will remain intact with the move from $34 trillion to $35 trillion.

“Little wonder ‘debt debasement’ trades closing in on all-time highs, i.e. gold $2077/oz, bitcoin $67734,” he wrote in a note Thursday.

Spot gold is currently hovering around $2,084 an ounce, while bitcoin was recently around $61,443. The cryptocurrency in February closed out its best month since 2020, briefly trading above $64,000 on Wednesday before pulling back. Inflows into crypto funds are on course for a “blowout year,” with an annualized inflow of $44.7 billion so far this year, Hartnett noted.

Moody’s Investors Service lowered its ratings outlook on the U.S. government to negative from stable in November due to the rising risks of the country’s fiscal strength.

“In the context of higher interest rates, without effective fiscal policy measures to reduce government spending or increase revenues,” the agency said. “Moody’s expects that the US’ fiscal deficits will remain very large, significantly weakening debt affordability.”

The U.S. national debt is rising by $1 trillion about every 100 days (cnbc.com)

Biden signs stopgap spending bill to avert government shutdown, White House says

March 1, 2024 8:35 PM GMT

March 1 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden has signed into law a short-term stopgap spending bill to avert a partial government shutdown, the White House said on Friday.

The bill was approved by the Democratic-majority U.S. Senate on Thursday after the Republican-controlled House of Representatives backed it with less than 36 hours before funding would have begun to run out.

Biden signs stopgap spending bill to avert government shutdown, White House says | Reuters

Fitch downgrades NY Community Bancorp to BB+, outlook negative

March 1, 2024 11:55 PM GMT

March 1 (Reuters) - Fitch Ratings has downgraded New York Community Bancorp (NYCB.N) opens new tab and its bank subsidiary Flagstar Bank to 'BB+'/'B' from 'BBB-'/'F3'.

Fitch earlier in February had already downgraded long-term issuer default ratings (IDRs) for New York Community Bancorp to 'BBB-' from 'BBB'.

Fitch said its decision came from reassessing NYCB's risk profile, following NYCB's announcement of a material weakness in the company's internal controls related to an internal loan review. The agency added its rating outlook on the bank is negative.

Several other firms have downgraded the embattled lender, including Morningstar DBRS that downgraded the bank's credit rating due to "outsized" exposure to commercial real estate (CRE). Moody's has already cut their ratings.

Fitch said it positively viewed Thursday's appointment of Alessandro Dinello as CEO, given his tenure as CEO of Flagstar Bancorp.

Fitch downgrades NY Community Bancorp to BB+, outlook negative | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.   

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

Consumers fended off a recession — but keep spending like there's no tomorrow

February 29, 2024

  • Defiant consumer spending has helped the US economy dodge a recession.
  • Yet consumers are saving less, raiding their piggy banks, and racking up record credit-card debt.
  • Experts say their spending will inevitably falter, tanking the economy.

American consumers have staved off a recession by relentlessly spending despite soaring inflation, surging interest rates, multi-industry turmoil, and wider economic jitters.

Yet several experts have warned they can't resist those pressures forever. Here's a closer look at the economy's saviors and why they may be nearing the point of capitulation.

Consumer spending is the lifeblood of the economy, accounting for about 70% of US GDP.

Households have been squeezed hard in recent years, with headline inflation spiking as high as 9.1% as the cost of food, fuel, housing, and other essentials soared.

The Federal Reserve reacted by hiking its benchmark interest rate from almost zero to more than 5% between early 2022 and mid-2023. That raised many people's monthly payments on their car loans, credit cards, mortgages, and other debts.

Leading investors, economists, and business leaders have been predicting for years now that consumers will eventually be forced to stop spending — but that hasn't happened yet.

For example, in the first half of 2022, Michael Burry of "The Big Short" fame warned on Twitter that cash-strapped Americans were saving less, borrowing more, and blowing through the extra cash they stashed away from stimulus checks and their cheaper lifestyles during the pandemic.

The Scion Asset Management chief noted that the personal saving rate had slumped to 2008 lows, personal savings had shrunk to 2013 levels, and the amount of revolving credit-card debt had rebounded to its pre-pandemic peak.

Burry predicted that dwindling savings and ballooning debts would choke consumer spending, eroding corporate earnings and sparking a wider recession.

Similarly, Elon Musk flagged consumers' challenges on a Tesla earnings call in October.

"A large number of people are living paycheck to paycheck and with a lot of debt," he said, adding that credit-card payments had jumped to "extremely punishing" levels.

Carl Weinberg, the chief economist at High Frequency Economics, said in December that consumers were "waking up" to the fact that the interest payments on their credit cards were "over the top, out of control, off the hook." He said that was "going to lead to a retrenchment in consumer spending as we get into the new year."

---- Consumers may have prevented a recession last year, but as Burry warned, their spending came at a cost.

The personal saving rate — or the percentage of people's disposable income they put away monthly — slowed to 3.7% in December, close to its lowest level since the financial crisis.

The volume of personal savings also shrunk to around 2017 levels, while the amounts owed on credit cards and other consumer loans have steadily climbed to record levels.

David Rosenberg, the president of Rosenberg Research who was a chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch, called out excessive debt reliance this month.

"Not even a 500 basis point interest rate shock could manage to derail a consumer still addicted to debt," he wrote. "A recession averted as Main Street took a feather out of Wall Street's cap — leverage!"

Rosenberg pointed out in a February 15 note that monthly retail sales dropped 2.4% in the 12 months to January, signaling a spending slowdown. He said that "brings us just a little closer to the consumer recession that nobody believes is going to happen."

More

Consumers fended off a recession — but keep spending like there's no tomorrow (msn.com)


Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Medicines regulator failed to flag Covid vaccine side effects and must be investigated, say MPs

All-party group believe MHRA were aware of heart and clotting issues in February 2021 but did not highlight the problems for several months

27 February 2024 • 6:24pm

The medical regulator failed to sound the alarm over Covid vaccine side effects and should be investigated, MPs have said.

More, subscription required.

Medicines regulator failed to flag Covid vaccine side effects and must be investigated, say MPs (telegraph.co.uk)

UK Medicines Regulator a "Serious Risk" to Patient Safety

Dr Sheena Meredith Disclosures 

The All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on pandemic response and recovery has raised "serious patient safety concerns" about the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), along with other aspects of a system that, "far from protecting patients, continues to put them at serious risk".

In a letter to Health Secretary Steve Brine, APPG co-chairs Esther McVey and Graham Stringer, with 26 cosignatories, highlighted the Independent Medicines and Medical Devices Safety (IMMDS) investigation of Primodos, sodium valproate, and pelvic mesh scandals, which found the response of the healthcare system was not sufficiently robust, speedy, or appropriate, causing some patients to suffer life-changing or fatal, avoidable harm.

MHRA at "the Tip of a Sizeable Iceberg of Failure"

Subsequent evidence "leads us to believe that serious patient safety concerns persist beyond even the findings of the IMMDS review", the APPG signatories wrote. "The MHRA is at the heart of these far wider endemic failings," and "those cited in this letter merely represent the tip of a sizeable iceberg of failure."

Medscape News UK has reported increasing concern worldwide about the degree to which medicines regulators are captured by the drug industry. A 2022 BMJ investigation found serious conflicts of interest potentially influencing health policy and approval decisions. Regulatory agency members and expert advisers had financial interests in products being licensed, including several experts on COVID-19 vaccine advisory committees with financial ties to vaccine manufacturers that regulators did not always disclose. 

More

UK Medicines Regulator a "Serious Risk" to Patient Safety (medscape.co.uk)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Car tyres next?

Elevating Cycling Performance: The Impact of Graphene-Enhanced Tires

February 29, 2024

In 2022, Haydale and Italian manufacturers Vittoria announced a joint venture to supply functionalized graphene for use in their graphene-enhanced bicycle tires after successfully co-developing improved rubber compounds.

As the leading manufacturer of performance bicycle tires, Vittoria has been at the forefront of integrating graphene into bicycle tire rubber since 2015.

This partnership with Haydale has yielded remarkable results, resulting in the creation of bicycle tires that surpass existing ones in terms of strength, weight reduction, durability, improved grip, and minimized rolling resistance.

The graphene-enhanced tires have set a new standard for performance and durability and have helped improve the overall riding experience for cyclists.

This partnership has also benefited both companies by combining Haydale’s functionalized graphene knowledge with Vittoria’s tire design and production knowledge. It is a great example of how collaboration between companies with complementary expertise can lead to innovation and success.

Elevating Cycling Performance: The Impact of Graphene-Enhanced Tires (msn.com)

Breakthrough allows for dramatically better batteries with one change, researchers say

February 29, 2024

A new battery breakthrough could allow for dramatically faster charging and better performance at low temperatures, according to the engineers who made it.

A new material made up of small molecules could be included in batteries to allow them to perform dramatically better: charging up much more quickly and working even at extreme temperatures, all the way down to -80 degrees Celsius.

----In the new research, however, scientists suggest using organic solvents to upgrade the electrolyte in the battery. Changing that solvent to a material known as fluoroacetonitrile, made up of small molecules, appears to dramatically improve how they operate.

----The new research “opens up avenues of research for developing the next generation of lithium-ion batteries”, according to an article written by researchers away from the breakthrough. What’s more, the breakthrough could allow for new kinds of energy-storage systems unlike our current lithium-based technology, relying instead on sodium, potassium and other kinds of ions.

The work is described in a new paper, ‘Ligand-channel-enabled ultrafast Li-ion conduction’, published in Nature.

Breakthrough allows for dramatically better batteries with one change, researchers say (msn.com)

 

This weekend’s music diversion. Haydn’s keyboard concerto, largo second movement. Approx. 7 minutes.

Keyboard Concerto in F Major, Hob. XVIII:3: II. Largo

Keyboard Concerto in F Major, Hob. XVIII:3: II. Largo (youtube.com)

This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 10 minutes.

The King Is Getting Checkmated Here

The King Is Getting Checkmated Here (youtube.com)

Finally, cement. What is it and how is it made. Approx. 8 minutes.

How CEMENT is Made | in FACTORIES

How CEMENT is Made | in FACTORIES (youtube.com)

"Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one."

Charles MackayExtraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds 

No comments:

Post a Comment