Friday, 8 March 2024

Stocks Boom On Fed Rate Cuts “Soon”. More AI Mania.

Baltic Dry Index. 2176 +75            Brent Crude  83.45

Spot Gold 2158                    US 2 Year Yield 4.50 -0.05

 The markets are moved by animal spirits, and not by reason.

John Maynard Keynes.

In the global stock casinos, the Fed Chairman Powell rate cutting boom.

What’s not to like. After all it’s a US Presidential election year, so in addition to the Biden Joe Biden boosting interest rate cuts, the Dems and Reps will be promising for free cash to bribe the voters.

Besides, President Biden Joe Biden just said that the US economy “is the envy of the world”. More on that below.

Get long Nvidia we’re all going to become billionaires, right?


Asia markets rise as Fed’s Powell signals rate cuts are on the horizon

UPDATED FRI, MAR 8 2024 12:01 AM EST

Asia-Pacific markets rose after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted that interest rate cuts may not be too distant if inflation signals support.

Speaking to the Senate Banking Committee, Powell didn’t offer an exact timeline for rate cuts, but noted they would go down soon.

“We’re waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably at 2%. When we do get that confidence, and we’re not far from it, it’ll be appropriate to begin to dial back the level of restriction,” Powell said in response to a question about rates and inflation. 

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was on pace for a third straight day of gains, up 0.8% to hit a record high.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 traded 0.67% higher, while the Topix slid 0.30% as January household spending fell more than expected, dropping 6.3% year on year compared with the 4.3% expected by economists polled by Reuters.

The metric gives a clue to whether inflation is outpacing wage gains, which is being closely watched by the Bank of Japan.

South Korea’s Kospi climbed 1.3%, while the small cap Kosdaq was up 0.49%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 1.15%, while China’s CSI 300 rose 0.14%.

More

Asia markets live updates: Powell testimony; SOTU, Japan household spending (cnbc.com)

 

S&P 500 jumps 1% for fresh closing record, Nasdaq pops 1.5% to touch all-time high: Live updates

UPDATED THU, MAR 7 2024 5:51 PM EST

Stocks rose Thursday, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite back to record highs, as hope over easing inflation and gains in tech aided Wall Street’s midweek bounce.

The broad S&P 500 advanced 1.03% to 5,157.36, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.51% to 16,273.38. Both notched all-time highs during the session, while the S&P 500 also clinched a closing record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 130.30 points, or 0.34%, to close at 38,791.35.

Information technology and communication services stocks led the S&P 500 to that record. Intel was the best performer in the Dow with a gain of more than 3%.

Investor optimism was boosted after the European Central Bank lowered forecasts for annual inflation and growth on Thursday, though the bank also held key interest rates steady. That can be taken as a positive signal on the international inflation front.

The ECB’s announcement comes after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Congress on Wednesday that he expects interest rates to come down this year. While Powell said that the Fed was not immediately ready to begin cutting, he told the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday that the central bank isn’t far from having the confidence it needs on inflation to start.

“The market was expecting it — and they’re finally hearing it from Fed officials,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, of Powell’s commentary around interest levels. “It just adds to the confidence that rate cuts are coming.”

The S&P 500 was now up 0.4% this week despite the rough start for stocks. The Nasdaq was near flat on the week, while the Dow was still down around 0.8%.

The Nasdaq was helped by a gain of about 4.5% in Nvidia, the artificial intelligence darling whose shares have climbed more than 12% this week. But Apple ended the day slightly lower for its seventh straight losing session.

Investors are awaiting Friday’s U.S. jobs report for insights into the state of the labor market, which has shown resilience despite higher interest rates.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)


Morning Bid: Cracks show in dollar's reign

Reuters 

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee

The dollar's 1% fall for the week thus far is set to be its steepest in nearly three months, and tonight's U.S. jobs data is the next test for the greenback.

It would take a very, very strong number to change the outlook for U.S. rates, given how Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has already opened the door to cutting rates even if unemployment stays low, as long as inflation continues to slow.

Forecasts are for nonfarm payrolls to have increased by 200,000 in February, down from January's blowout 353,000 gain.

"We believe fewer end-of-year layoffs produced (the) temporary spike, and with the seasonal layoff period now behind us, we assume a return towards a more normal pace of job gains," analysts at Goldman Sachs said.

So for now, the first of the Fed's rate cut seems to be within sight - unless next week's U.S. inflation report proves otherwise.

The dollar has thus far been the clearest reflection of the easing expectations, with its recent move lower and buoyant risk sentiment hoisting the Aussie back above the $0.6600 level.

Record peaks for gold and bitcoin this week also show the dollar's vulnerability.

The euro , too, is at a two-month high and eyeing its best week against the dollar in months, even as the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday laid the ground for a rate cut in June and lowered its inflation forecast.

While most of the world focuses on the global easing cycle, over in Japan, it seems the time is ripe for a rate hike.

Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials have begun ramping up their hawkish rhetoric and shown increasing confidence that the Japanese economy was moving towards the BOJ's 2% inflation target, just ahead of the central bank's March 18-19 policy meeting.

Wage talks from large Japanese companies also look set to yield hefty pay hikes, paving the way for the BOJ to exit negative interest rates, which some say could happen this month.

---- Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:

- Germany industrial output (January)

- Germany industrial production (January)

- Euro zone revised Q4 GDP

- U.S. nonfarm payrolls (February)

Morning Bid: Cracks show in dollar's reign | Reuters

Far be it for me to rain on the Biden Joe Biden economic bragging rights parade, but no Mr. President, the US economy is not “the envy of the world”.

Very few in the world wish to turn their economies into another version of Argentina, yet that is what the US economy is now setting out to achieve.

US federal debt is 34.3 trillion, as of early January, and now rising by another trillion of new debt every 100 days.  US GDP is roughly 27.3 trillion.

In less than 5 years at a rate of 1 trillion of new debt every 100 days, US federal debt will be over 52 trillion dollars, while the US GDP, assuming no recession for 5 years, will likely be 33-35 trillion.

Argentina or Bust, is not an economic policy the rest of the world wants to copy.

The boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the Treasury.

John Maynard Keynes.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Fed's Powell still expects rate cuts, but inflation progress "not assured"

March 6, 2024

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, avoiding disputes over fiscal policy, energy, housing, Ukraine and other tangled issues, told U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday he and his colleagues would “keep our heads down” in a charged presidential election year, with interest rate cuts still likely in coming months but only if warranted by further evidence of falling inflation.

Rate cuts "really will depend on the path of the economy. Our focus is on maximum employment and price stability, and the incoming data as they affect the outlook, and those are the things we'll be looking at," Powell told the House Financial Services Committee. "We are just going to keep our heads down and do our jobs and try to deliver what the public is expecting from us."

"That's the economy that we're trying to achieve. We're on a good path so far to be able to get there," Powell said.

But the coming decision of when and how far to reduce the benchmark interest rate is both complex in an economy that is showing signs of continued disinflation but also unexpected strength, and consequential in the upcoming rematch between incumbent President Joe Biden, a Democrat, and Republican former President Donald Trump.

More

Fed's Powell still expects rate cuts, but inflation progress "not assured" (msn.com)

Government machinery has been described as a marvelous labor saving device which enables ten men to do the work of one.

John Maynard Keynes.

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

New £450m vaccine hub announced in Budget

March 6, 2024

A £450m vaccine manufacturing hub is set to be built in the north west of England, the chancellor has announced.

Jeremy Hunt said in his Budget speech that AstraZeneca planned to invest the £450m in Speke in Liverpool as part of a total investment of £650m in the UK.

The Treasury said the investment was dependent on "mutual agreement with the UK government and third parties".

AstraZeneca it demonstrated their "ongoing confidence in UK life sciences".

As part of the £650m total investment the pharmaceutical company said it would also expand its footprint on the Cambridge Biomedical Campus.

Mr Hunt said: "AstraZeneca's investment plans are a vote of confidence in the attractiveness of UK as a life sciences superpower and strengthen our resilience for future health emergencies."

The investment in Liverpool was said by the government to be for the research, development, and manufacture of vaccines, "building on the site's current role in supplying the world leading childhood vaccination programme".

The new facility would be designed and built to be operationally net zero with power supplied from renewable energy sources.

AstraZeneca's chief executive officer, Sir Pascal Soriot, said the planned investment would "enhance the UK's pandemic preparedness and demonstrates our ongoing confidence in UK life sciences".

He added: "We will continue to support the UK in driving innovation and patient access, building on the strong foundations which have been put in place."

Dr Isabel Oliver, chief scientific officer at the UK Health Security Agency, said: "This investment will bolster the development of the UK's vaccine capabilities and life sciences sector - critical components of the country's resilience to future health threats."

In a statement to announce the plans, the Treasury said the investment needed the agreement of the UK Government and "third parties" and depended on "successful completion of regulatory processes".

New £450m vaccine hub announced in Budget (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among  other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

The report cited is not available to readers located in the EEC. Approx. 5 minutes.

Electrifying the US truck fleet is PHYSICALLY IMPOSSIBLE | MGUY Australia

Electrifying the US truck fleet is PHYSICALLY IMPOSSIBLE | MGUY Australia (youtube.com)

Another weekend and yet another war weekend. Whatever happened to the peace makers of planet Earth? Have a good weekend everyone.

Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalistic System was to debauch the currency. . . Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million can diagnose.

 

John Maynard Keynes.

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