Baltic Dry Index. 2251 +169 Brent Crude 82.08
Spot Gold 2179 U S 2 Year Yield 4.48 -0.02
Higher taxes never reduce the deficit. Governments spend whatever they take in and then whatever they can get away with.
Milton Friedman.
In the stock casinos, a major wobble. Did the US jobs report just make it harder for the US central bank to start cutting interest rates, or was it Nvidia’s plunge that unnerved the perma bulls?
What if Nvidia’s tumble signals the bull market top?
An
interesting week now lies ahead.
U.S. job growth totaled 275,000 in February but
unemployment rate rose to 3.9%
Job creation topped expectations in February, but
the unemployment rate moved higher and employment growth from the previous two
months wasn’t nearly as hot as initially reported.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by
275,000 for the month while the jobless rate moved higher to 3.9%, the Labor
Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for payroll growth of
198,000.
February was a step higher in
growth from January, which saw a steep downward revision to 229,000, from the
initially reported 353,000. Job growth in December also was revised down to
290,000 from 333,000, bringing the two-month total to 167,000 fewer jobs than
initially reported.
The jobless level increased as the household
survey, used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a decline of
184,000 in those employed. The increase came even though the labor force
participation rate held steady at 62.5%, though the “prime age” rate increased
to 83.5%, up two-tenths of a percentage point. The survey of establishments
shows the total number of jobs.
Average hourly earnings, watched
closely as an inflation indicator, showed a slightly less than expected
increase for the month and a deceleration from a year ago. Wages rose just 0.1%
on the month, one-tenth of a percentage point below the estimate, and were up
4.3% from a year ago, down from the 4.5% gain in January and slightly below the
4.4% estimate.
Hours worked rebounded from a slip
in January, with the average work week up to 34.3 hours, an increase of 0.1
percentage point.
The jobs numbers likely keep the Federal Reserve on track to cut
interest rates later this year, though the timing and extent remain uncertain.
More
Jobs
report February 2024: U.S. job growth totaled 275,000 (cnbc.com)
Nasdaq drops 1% Friday as Nvidia tumbles, Dow
closes out worst week since October: Live updates
UPDATED FRI, MAR 8 2024 4:20 PM EST
Stocks retreated on Friday, closing out a
turbulent week as Nvidia’s
incredible run took a breather.
The S&P 500 lost
0.65% to 5,123.69, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped
1.16% to 16,085.11. Both swung into negative territory after rising to new
all-time highs earlier in the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average relinquished
68.66 points, or 0.18%, to end at 38,722.69.
All three major indexes finished
the choppy week lower. The broad S&P 500 pulled back by 0.26% this week,
while the blue-chip Dow and tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.93% and 1.17%,
respectively. That decline marked the worst week for the 30-stock Dow since October.
Stocks were hurt Friday as an
earlier rally in Nvidia lost steam. The artificial intelligence darling
finished down more than 5% in its worst session since late May.
Despite that breather, Nvidia
shares still finished up more than 6% on the week. It’s part of a monster rally
that has added more than $1 trillion to the stock’s market cap in just the new
year alone.
“It doesn’t mean that the
longer-term upside potential is over,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment
strategist at CFRA Research, of Nvidia’s Friday move. “It just says that maybe
we’ve gotten ahead of ourselves: We’ve gotten to an overbought situation, and
it’s time to take some profits.”
Though Nvidia dragged on tech, Apple rose
1% in Friday trading. With that gain, the mega-cap stock snapped its longest
losing streak since early 2022 at seven days. But shares were
still down nearly 5% on the week, making it the worst performer in the 30-stock
Dow.
Investors parse labor data
The February
jobs data released Friday morning offered some conflicting
signals as to when it will be safe for the Federal Reserve to start cutting
interest rates.
On one hand, the
number of jobs added last month was much more than expected, coming in at
275,000 compared with an estimate of 198,000 from economists polled by Dow
Jones. This data can imply the economy is still running pretty hot.
But the
unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked higher to 3.9% and wage growth was
lighter than feared, offering morsels of hope that inflation has cooled enough
to appease the Fed. Data on January jobs growth was also revised lower.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In other news, food price inflation is back,
not that it ever really went away. In better news, there might be bargains to
be had in Aussie red wine.
Global Food Roundup: African
Drought and Europe’s Farming Troubles
March
8, 2024 at 12:00 PM GMT
From drought plaguing African
crops to Brazilian farmers going bankrupt and Europe wargaming a food crisis,
here are this week’s key food stories:
African Weather Woes
A swath of southern Africa —
including Zambia, Botswana and Zimbabwe — suffered the driest February in at
least four decades that wiped out crops, precipitated power shortages and
threatened to send already high food prices surging further..
At the other end of the continent,
Morocco — often cited among the most vulnerable to climate change in the
Mediterranean basin — is facing yet another drought after suffering from a lack
of rain during autumn. That means it will need to boost wheat imports to make up for a smaller crop,
local farm-lobby group Comader warns.
Farmers’ Fury
Protests continued in Europe from
growers angry about falling incomes, rising costs and what they say is unfair
competition.
This week, Polish farmers clashed
with police in Warsaw and manure was dumped outside Czech government
headquarters. A majority of EU countries are urging the bloc to speed up its review of agricultural policies and
develop a concrete plan for measures to ease the farmer unrest.
Farmers in agriculture powerhouse
Brazil are filing for bankruptcy protection at a “concerning” pace as high
interest rates and falling prices squeeze profits, according to credit data
provider Serasa Experian. Meanwhile, farmers in the US are turning to solar power as a buffer against
volatile crop prices, and President Joe Biden’s clean-energy tax incentives are
set to boost the trend.
More
Global
Food Roundup: Africa Drought and Farmer Protests - Bloomberg
Australian farmers rip out millions of vines amid wine glut
By Peter Hobson
March
9, 2024 5:06 AM GMT
GRIFFITH, Australia, March 9 (Reuters) - Millions
of vines are being destroyed in Australia and tens of millions more must be
pulled up to rein in overproduction that has crushed grape prices and threatens
the livelihoods of growers and wine makers.
Falling consumption of wine worldwide has hit
Australia particularly hard as demand shrinks fastest for the cheaper reds that
are its biggest product, and in China, the market it has relied on for growth
until recent years.
The world's fifth largest exporter of wine had more
than two billion litres, or about two years' worth of production, in storage in
mid-2023, the most recent figures show, and some is spoiling as owners rush to
dispose of it at any price.
"There's only so long we can go on growing a
crop and losing money on it," said fourth-generation grower James
Cremasco, as he watched clanking yellow excavators strip out rows of vines his
grandfather planted near the southeastern town of Griffith.
About two-thirds of
Australia's wine grapes are grown in irrigated inland areas such as Griffith,
its landscape shaped by vine-growing techniques brought by Italian migrants
arriving around the 1950s.
As major wine makers such as Treasury Wines (TWE.AX) and Carlyle Group's (CG.O) Accolade Wines refocus on
more expensive bottles that are selling better, the areas around Griffith are
struggling, with unpicked grapes shrivelling on vines.
"It feels like an era is ending," said
Andrew Calabria, a third-generation vineyard owner and wine maker at Calabria
Wines.
"It's hard for growers to look out the back
window and see a pile of dirt instead of vines that have been there as long as
they've known."
Nearby, the remains of 1.1 million vines that once
comprised one of Australia's largest vineyards were piled in heaps of gnarled
and twisted wood as far as the eye could see.
More
Australian farmers rip out millions of vines amid wine glut | Reuters
Finally, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
Germans stuck in 'winter recession'
as forecasters predict growth will be weaker than feared
March
7, 2024
Germany is stuck in a ‘winter recession’ and growth in 2024 will be
weaker than feared, say two of its leading forecasters.
The Ifo institute now expects output to rise by just 0.2 per cent
having previously pencilled in 0.7 per cent, while the IfW Kiel institute
slashed its forecast from 0.9 per cent to 0.1 per cent.
‘The economy is paralysed,’ said Ifo head of forecasts Timo
Wollmershaeuser.
He added: ‘If you look at surveys of companies and households, you
realise that the mood is poor and uncertainty is high.
Consumer restraint, high interest rates and price increases, the
government’s austerity measures and the weak global economy are currently
dampening the economy in Germany and leading to another winter recession.’
The German economy shrank by 0.3 per cent in the final three months of
2023 and it is expected to contract again in the first quarter, according to
Wollmershaeuser.
Two consecutive quarters of falling output are defined as a technical
recession.
ECB cites good progress on inflation,
needs more data
March
7, 2024
FRANKFURT (Reuters) -The European Central Bank kept borrowing
costs at record highs on Thursday and stressed that, while inflation was easing
faster than it anticipated only a few months ago, it was still not ready to
lower rates.
Having underestimated a sudden surge in prices two
years ago, the central bank for the 20 countries sharing the euro has been
reluctant to declare victory over what turned out to be the most brutal bout of
inflation in decades.
Leaving its main interest rate unchanged at 4.0% as
expected, the ECB tweaked its messaging slightly to reflect a continued fall in
inflation over the past 1-1/2 years and new, lower economic projections.
"We are making good progress towards our
inflation target and we are more confident as a result - but we are not
sufficiently confident," ECB President Christine Lagarde told a press
conference.
"We will know a lot more in June," she
said, adding that there was broad agreement on that point among ECB
policymakers.
In quarterly economic projections released earlier,
the ECB cut its forecast for inflation this year from 2.7% to 2.3%. That could
mean inflation hits the ECB's 2% target before the end of this year, rather
than in 2025 as it has expected.
But ECB policymakers noted in their statement that
while most measures of underlying inflation were easing, domestic price
pressures remain high, largely due to strong wage growth.
Having managed to talk traders out of betting on a
rate cut in early spring, the ECB avoided making promises on Thursday.
Sources have been telling Reuters for months that
the central bank is unlikely to reduce borrowing costs before its June 6
meeting as crucial data about wages will only become available in May.
This gives the ECB another meeting - on April 11 -
to explicitly open the door to what ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane has said is
likely be the first in a series of rate cuts.
Investors have pencilled three or four cuts to the
4% rate the ECB pays on bank deposits this year, taking it to 3.25% or 3.0%.
More
ECB cites good progress on inflation, needs more data
(msn.com)
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
COVID-19
Vaccine: Covishield outperforms Covaxin in first-of-its-kind comparative study.
Key things to know
The study, titled 'Immunogenicity of
SARS-CoV-2 vaccines BBV152 (COVAXIN) and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (COVISHIELD) in
seronegative and seropositive individuals in India: a multicentre,
non-randomized observational study', compared the immune responses in users for
Covishield v Covaxin
Researchers
from the National Centre for Biological Sciences (NCBS) have in a study
published in The Lancet Regional Health Southeast Asia on March 6, shared key
insights into the effectiveness of Covishield and Covaxin — the two most used COVID-19 vaccines in India, the Hindustan Times reported.
The study
involved collaboration between 11 institutes, including at least six from Pune.
These six included the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Pune
(IISER), the National Chemical Laboratory (NCL), the National Centre for Cell
Science (NCCS), and the Pune Knowledge Cluster.
Covishield was AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine produced and branded locally by the Adar
Poonawalla-led Serum Institute of India (SII) in Pune, while Covaxin was
developed and produced by the Hyderabad-based Bharat Biotech.
Here Are the Key Findings of
the Study:
More
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Nissan and Altilium join forces for
£30m EV battery recycling project
March 5, 2024
Motor manufacturer Nissan has joined forces with clean tech company
Altilium on a new £30m EV battery recycling project.
Altilium – which has a site in Devon and is planning one on Teesside –
is working on the Nissan-led project which will see the firms work together to
boost the sustainability of EV batteries manufactured in the UK. The program is
part of the multimillion-pound collaborative scheme announced by the Advanced
Propulsion Centre (APC), which has been awarded grant funding of £15m.
The
scheme aims to create a “closed loop” the loop on the UK EV battery supply
chain, focusing on ways to recycling, reuse and resell batteries. The work by
the two companies aims to lower the carbon footprint of new batteries, while
also bringing down the UK’s reliance on imported raw materials.
The
program will also strengthen the technical expertise and R&D capability of
the Nissan Technical Centre Europe (NTCE) in Cranfield, Bedfordshire. The
consortium also includes Newcastle-based Connected Energy, which provides
second-life battery energy storage solutions, and battery producer AESC, a
long-standing partner of Nissan which recently received a £200m Government
loan, to support the creation of a second gigafactory next to the motor
manufacturer’s North East plant.
The companies will work together to recover battery metals from spent
Nissan leaf batteries and production scrap, and then upcycle these materials to
produce high nickel chemistry cathode active materials (CAM) for testing in the
next generation of EV batteries.
The collaboration comes three months after Nissan confirmed investment
of £2bn into expansion at its Sunderland plant, including the production of two
new electric vehicles.
More
Nissan and Altilium join forces for £30m EV battery
recycling project (msn.com)
This weekend’s music diversion. The oboe King again. Check out the final “have another drink” movement. Approx. 11 minutes.
Albinoni
- Concerto for 2 oboes in F major, Op. 9, No. 3 (I. Allegro, II. Adagio, III.
Allegro)
This weekend’s chess
update. Approx. 12 minutes.
This
is A ReAL Fight! || Vincent vs Nodirbek || Prague Chess Festival (2024)
This is A ReAL Fight! || Vincent vs Nodirbek || Prague
Chess Festival (2024) (youtube.com)
Finally, China’s
property bust as seen by the Wall Street Journal. My thanks to reader Chas for
sending it along. Approx. 5 minutes.
Inside
a Chinese Ghost Town of Abandoned Mansions | WSJ
Inside
a Chinese Ghost Town of Abandoned Mansions | WSJ (youtube.com)
We
have a system that increasingly taxes work and subsidizes nonwork.
Milton Friedman.
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