Tuesday, 26 March 2024

Stocks, A Pause Before The Final Push? Oil Rising.

Baltic Dry Index. 2123 -73            Brent Crude  86.80

Spot Gold 2174                   US 2 Year Yield 4.54 -0.05

The State is a gang of thieves writ large - the most immoral, grasping and unscrupulous individuals in any society.

Murray Rothbard.

In the stock casinos, more nervousness in what should be an end of quarter week to dress up stocks and indexes.

After all, the central banksters are about to blow up stock prices this summer with a massive round of interest rate cuts, right. What could possibly go wrong?

Well, with President Biden Joe Biden and Fed Chairman Powell and the Fed chorus all saying the US economy is booming, suppose any US interest rate cuts get deferred into 2025? They wouldn’t do that would they?

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, noted that equities have gotten expensive, with the S&P now trading at a 33% premium to its average price-to-earnings ratio over the last 20 years.

 

Asia markets mixed after Wall Street rally pauses; South Korea’s Kospi hits over 2-year high

UPDATED TUE, MAR 26 2024 1:38 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Tuesday as the U.S. market took a breather following a rally sparked by optimism over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance at its latest meeting.

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, noted that equities have gotten expensive, with the S&P now trading at a 33% premium to its average price-to-earnings ratio over the last 20 years.

“We’re coming off of a post-FOMC high,” he told CNBC, referring to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting last week. “The market is getting more and more vulnerable to a market decline or a pullback in prices.”

Investors in Asia digested economic data, with Japan’s service producer price index for February coming in at 2.1%.

Singapore’s manufacturing output increased 14.2% in February from January. January saw a 6.7% decline in manufacturing. The country’s Straits Times index rose 0.9%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 0.12% lower, while the broader Topix was flat.

South Korea’s Kospi added 0.79%, hitting its highest level since February 2022. The smaller-cap Kosdaq edged 0.05% lower.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.41% to end at 7,780.20, after coming close to its all-time high on Monday.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 0.17%, powered by energy and industrial stocks, while the mainland Chinese CSI 300 rose 0.02%.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes lost ground, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.41% and the S&P 500 dipping 0.31%, while the Nasdaq Composite was 0.27% lower.

Asia markets live updates: Singapore manufacturing data, Japan service PPI (cnbc.com)

 

European stocks head for mixed open as Wall Street rally takes a breather

UPDATED TUE, MAR 26 2024 1:30 AM EDT

European markets are heading for a lackluster open Tuesday as investors continue to ponder last week’s central bank policy decisions in Europe and the U.S.

Regional markets had a tentative start to the new trading week Monday and the lack of momentum looks set to continue Tuesday.

Today, investors in Europe, the Middle East and Africa will be keeping an eye out as Nigeria’s central bank publishes its latest monetary policy decision, and as earnings come from Smiths Group, Ocado Retail, Bellway and A.G. Barr.

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Tuesday as the U.S. market took a breather after a rally sparked by optimism over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance at its latest meeting. U.S. stock futures traded near the flatline Monday night, after the major averages took a breather from their rally.

European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)

 

Stock futures are little changed as market rally takes a breather: Live updates

UPDATED MON, MAR 25 2024 7:37 PM EDT

U.S. stock futures traded near the flatline Monday night, after the major averages took a breather from their rally.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures inched up just 11 points, or 0.03%. Futures tied to both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 added about 0.1% each.

The three major averages ended Monday lower. The 30-stock Dow dipped 0.4%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell around 0.3% each. The pullbacks come on the back of last week’s strong gains, during which the indexes reached new all-time closing high levels.

Month to date, the major U.S. stock benchmarks are on pace for their fifth straight winning month. The broad market index is up more than 2% in March. The Nasdaq Composite is toting a 1.8% advance for the period, while the Dow is up 0.8%.

Despite some concerns that the market rally has crossed into overbought territory, investors still can’t be underweight on equities as of now, according to 3Fourteen Research cofounder Warren Pies.

“There are a lot of people who are underweight or under-exposed to this market, and they’re going to scramble to get exposed,” Pies told CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime” on Monday. “I think the combination of a soft landing, a Fed that has your back and under-invested strategists and institutions means that this rally can keep going.” 

More economic data releases are slated for Tuesday. March’s consumer confidence data will be released in the morning. Durable goods orders and the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey will also provide insight on the health of the manufacturing sector.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

 

Hedge funds flock to Europe, ditch US stocks

By Carolina Mandl 

NEW YORK, March 25 (Reuters) - Global hedge funds have been adding European stocks to their portfolios this year while trimming their exposure to North America amid an ongoing debate over how expensive U.S. equities are, Morgan Stanley's proprietary data showed.

Europe's STOXX 600 (.STOXX)b is up 6.5% this year, still lagging the S&P 500 (.SPX)b, which rose 9.6%. Last year, the S&P rallied 24%, posting the double of the STOXX performance.

The S&P 500 trades at 21 times forward earnings estimates, while European equities are trading at 14 times, BofA Securities showed.

Hedge funds "have bought EU equities in nearly 70% of the trading sessions since the Euro STOXX 600 began its rally in mid-January," Morgan Stanley said. Following the acquisitions, hedge funds portfolio exposure to Europe has grown from below 17% at the end of 2023 to roughly 19%.

Morgan Stanley said investors are mostly adding long positions to Europe, betting shares will rise. Their favorite sectors in the continent are information technology services, industrial conglomerates, semi-conductors, electrical equipment and life science tools and services.

As one of the biggest global prime brokerages providing services to hedge funds, Morgan Stanley tracks its clients' money flow to show trends.

Many market participants believe that U.S. stocks are trading at hefty valuation premiums over global equities.

Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley's equity strategist, said further multiple expansions in U.S. equities depends on better earnings outlooks for this and next year. "We think this rally has been mostly about looser financial conditions and falling cost of capital as a result of the Fed's 4Q dovish shift," he wrote.

More

Hedge funds flock to Europe, ditch US stocks | Reuters

 

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

The US economy is booming says, the US central bank. So why the need to cut US interest rates at all, risking another burst of consumer price inflation?

Here’s why the Fed doesn’t see a US recession in coming years

March 24, 2024

America’s central bank doesn’t see any signs of a recession on the horizon. Not this year nor the year after.

The Federal Reserve’s policymaking committee of 19 officials released a new set of economic projections last week, showing that they now expect economic growth in 2024, 2025 and 2026 to be even stronger than they previously thought.

That optimism seems to be the consensus among analysts, including Goldman Sachs’ chief economist: The ruthless economic pains of a recession, such as mass layoffs and tepid consumer spending, probably won’t happen anytime soon.

“The economy is strong, the labor market is strong and inflation has come way down,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday.

Corporate earnings have been robust, the stock market continues to break record after record and America might be in the thick of a productivity boom that could boost growth without stoking inflation.

And even though interest rates are at their highest levels in two decades, the economy continues to display remarkable resilience. Economists say that strength could persist through the coming years.

Fed officials continue to expect three rate cuts this year but the days of ultra-low interest rates are long gone. Interest rates will eventually settle down at levels well above the near-zero rates seen before the Fed began to hike in 2022.

But economists say that won’t present any problem for the sturdy US economy.

“A lot of my peers are calling it higher-for-longer, but it’s really stronger-for-longer,” Mike Skordeles, head of US economics at Truist Advisory Services, told CNN.

US gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, registered at a strong 3.2% annualized rate in the fourth quarter. That was after a gangbusters 4.9% rate in the prior three-month period. The Atlanta Fed is currently projecting that the economy expanded at a 2.1% rate in the first three months of 2024.

Fed officials estimate that growth in 2024 overall will hit 2.1%, then 2% in each of the following two years.

More

Here’s why the Fed doesn’t see a US recession in coming years (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

COVID-19 Had a Much Greater Impact on Life Expectancy Than Previously Thought

By  

A recent study published in The Lancet never-before-seen unprecedented details on the exceptionally high death rates due to the COVID-19 pandemic both within nations and internationally. Regions including Mexico City, Peru, and Bolivia experienced some of the most significant reductions in life expectancy from 2019 to 2021. This research, offering new estimates from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study, delivers the most thorough examination yet of the pandemic’s impact on human health. It reveals that the worldwide average life expectancy decreased by 1.6 years between 2019 and 2021, a sharp reversal from past increases.

Among GBD’s other key findings, child mortality continued to drop amid the COVID-19 pandemic, with half a million fewer deaths among children under 5 in 2021 compared to 2019. Mortality rates among children under 5 decreased by 7% from 2019 to 2021.

“For adults worldwide, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a more profound impact than any event seen in half a century, including conflicts and natural disasters,” says co-first author Dr. Austin E. Schumacher, Acting Assistant Professor of Health Metrics Sciences at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. “Life expectancy declined in 84% of countries and territories during this pandemic, demonstrating the devastating potential impacts of novel pathogens.”

Researchers from IHME identified high mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in places that were previously less recognized and/or reported. For example, the study reveals that after accounting for the age of the population, countries such as Jordan and Nicaragua had high excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic that was not apparent in previous all-age excess mortality estimates. In analyzing subnational locations not previously investigated, the South African provinces of KwaZulu-Natal and Limpopo had among the highest age-adjusted excess mortality rates and largest life expectancy declines during the pandemic in the world. Conversely, the places with some of the lowest age-adjusted excess mortality from the pandemic during this period included Barbados, New Zealand, and Antigua and Barbuda.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, mortality among older people worldwide rose in ways unseen in the previous 70 years. While the pandemic was devastating, killing approximately 16 million people around the globe in 2020 and 2021 combined, it did not completely erase historic progress – life expectancy at birth rose by nearly 23 years between 1950 and 2021.

GBD 2021 analyzes past and current demographic trends at global, regional, national, and subnational levels. The study provides globally comparable measures of excess mortality and is one of the first studies to fully evaluate demographic trends in the context of the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. In estimating excess deaths due to the pandemic, the authors accounted for deaths from the virus that causes COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, as well as deaths associated with indirect effects of the pandemic, such as delays in seeking health care.

More

COVID-19 Had a Much Greater Impact on Life Expectancy Than Previously Thought (scitechdaily.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Chinese EV battery maker in talks to invest £1bn in new UK gigafactory

Plant on outskirts of Coventry could create up to 6,000 jobs and will be part of planned Centre for Electrification

Sun 24 Mar 2024 16.58 GMT

A Chinese manufacturer of electric vehicle batteries is in talks to invest more than £1bn to build a giant new factory on the outskirts of Coventry.

 

EVE Energy, which says it employs 28,000 staff worldwide, is understood to be in talks to construct a 5.7m sq ft gigafactory, which will form one of the main parts of the planned UK Centre for Electrification, an investment zone in the West Midlands.

 

Sources with knowledge of the talks confirmed EVE’s interest in the project, which could create up to 6,000 jobs in partnership with local councils and Coventry airport, where the plant will be located.

 

The Chinese company is thought to be considering committing an initial £1.2bn to the project, according to the Sunday Times, which first reported the discussions. Subsequent phases of the works are expected to expand the site, which would make it almost twice the size of Nissan’s electric battery factory in Sunderland.

Last year, Tata Group, the owner of Jaguar Land Rover, also made a £4bn pledge to build an electric car battery gigafactory in Britain. The plant, to be sited in Somerset, will bring 4,000 new jobs to the area.

 

The West Midlands is home to a number of carmaking facilities – including ones run by Jaguar Land Rover, Aston Martin Lagonda and BMW – as well as the UK’s largest battery research centre, the UK Battery Industrialisation Centre.

 

The Coventry gigafactory plan could attract total private funding of up to £2bn, but any investment is likely to be contingent on hundreds of millions of pounds of UK subsidies.

More

Chinese EV battery maker in talks to invest £1bn in new UK gigafactory | Automotive industry | The Guardian

Finally, our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The natural tendency of government, once in charge of money, is to inflate and to destroy the value of the currency.

Murray Rothbard.

 

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