Two Days To Make Or Break Stocks. Wrecked In Seconds.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1989 -134            Brent Crude  85.42

Spot Gold 2179                   US 2 Year Yield 4.56 +0.02

No one would remember the Good Samaritan if he'd only had good intentions; he had money as well.

Margaret Thatcher.

The big news yesterday was the spectacular collapse in seconds of the port of Baltimore’s key bridge. More on that below.

In the stock casinos, only two trading days left to dress up stocks and indexes for the month-end and end of quarter all important money manager bonuses.

Are stocks now showing signs of a top?

Japan’s yen falls to 34-year low with Asia stocks mixed as investors assess China, Australia economic data

UPDATED TUE, MAR 26 2024 11:29 PM EDT

The Japanese yen fell to its weakest level in 34 years against the greenback, trading at 151.97, while Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Wednesday as investors assessed economic data from China and Australia.

China’s combined industrial profit for January and February climbed 10.2%  year on year, data showed. Industrial profits fell 2.3% for the whole of 2023.

China’s CSI 300 was 0.3% lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped 1.5%.

Data from Australia showed consumer price inflation in February rose 3.4% year over year.

This is the first inflation reading after the country’s central bank said that “it was not yet possible to rule in or out further increases in interest rates.”

“Inflation had moderated but was still high,” the bank said.

The S&P/ASX 200 was 0.34% higher, extending gains from Tuesday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rebounded to climb 0.95%, while the broad-based Topix was up 0.87%.

South Korea’s Kospi retreated 0.17% after leading gains in Asia and reaching a two-year high on Tuesday, while the small-cap Kosdaq fell 0.84%.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes continued to slide, with the S&P 500 marking a third straight day of losses and falling 0.28%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped marginally, while the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite saw a larger loss of 0.42%.

Still, the major averages are on pace for their fifth straight winning month despite the recent pullbacks, with the S&P up more than 2% in March.

Asia markets live updates: China industrial profit, yen lowest (cnbc.com)

European markets lose momentum, head toward flat open

UPDATED WED, MAR 27 2024 1:21 AM EDT

European stocks are heading for a flat open Wednesday as market momentum wanes. Regional markets closed higher Tuesday but are set to start today’s session around the flatline.

Investors will be keeping an eye out for Spanish inflation data and French consumer confidence figures for March on Wednesday, as well as a trading update from clothes retailer H&M.

Elsewhere overnight, U.S. stock futures were up modestly Tuesday night following a losing session on Wall Street that pulled the indexes further from record levels. Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Wednesday as investors assessed economic data from China and Australia.

European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)

Stock futures inch higher after S&P 500 notches three-day losing streak: Live updates

UPDATED TUE, MAR 26 2024 7:59 PM EDT

Stock futures are up modestly Tuesday night following a losing session on Wall Street that pulled the indexes further from record levels.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 87 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures each also rose 0.2%.

Those moves following a negative day for the three major indexes. The Dow slipped nearly 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4% as technology stocks struggled. With a slide of 0.3%, the S&P 500 saw its third down trading day in a row.

That action comes after the three major indexes all closed at record levels last week. But despite the recent pullback, the three averages are still on pace to end the trading month and quarter, which both conclude with Thursday’s closing bell, in the green.

“Valuations could take us back to, sort of, reality,” said Robert Schein, chief investment officer at Blanke Schein Wealth Management. But, “long term, this rally has legs and there’s a lot of momentum because of liquidity.”

As of Tuesday’s close, the S&P 500 has added 2.1% in the month and 9.1% in the quarter. The Nasdaq has climbed 1.4% in March and 8.7% over the three-month period, while the Dow has added 0.7% and 4.2% in the respective periods.

Traders will monitor commentary from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller Wednesday evening. There’s no closely followed economic data expected on Wednesday.

Later in the week, investors will watch for data on jobless claims, gross domestic product and consumer sentiment on Thursday. While the market is closed on Good Friday, attention will be on releases tied to personal income, consumer spending and the personal consumption expenditures expected in the morning.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Japan makes strongest intervention warning as yen hits 34-year low

By Tetsushi Kajimoto  March 27, 2024 6:03 AM GMT

TOKYO, March 27 (Reuters) - Japan's finance minister issued his strongest warning to date on Wednesday about yen weakness as it fell to a 34-year low against the dollar, saying authorities could take "decisive steps", language previously used before intervention.

Shunichi Suzuki previously used the phrase "decisive steps" in autumn 2022 when Japan last intervened in the market to stem weakness in its currency.

Suzuki made the remarks on Wednesday shortly after the dollar spiked on strong U.S. data, nudging the Japanese yen to a 34-year low and into the zone that triggered official market intervention a year-and-a-half ago.

The yen traded at 151.97 per dollar in the Asia session, down about 0.2% and weaker than 151.94 where Japanese authorities stepped in during October 2022 to buy the currency.

It hit the weakest level since the middle of 1990, around the time Japan's asset bubble burst, which was followed by decades of economic stagnation.

"Markets are I suppose, gingerly testing to see where's the line for Tokyo," said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at OCBC in Singapore. "I think that the risk of intervention is quite high, because this is a new cycle high. And given the warnings so far, I think that if Tokyo (does) not act, it's just going to encourage people to push (dollar/yen) a lot higher in the next few days."

More

 

Japan makes strongest intervention warning as yen hits 34-year low | Reuters

In shipping supply news, America’s 9^th most active port is closed to shipping for at best a few days, at worst a few weeks.  How many more key bridges globally are exposed to similar risk of collapse in seconds?

With trouble at the Suez and Panama canals, the global supply chain is now under increasing stress.

Baltimore Bridge Disaster to Test Shock-Worn Supply Chains

The US economy has withstood a series of supply chain shocks over the past five years, none more sudden and visibly dramatic than the container ship that slammed early Tuesday into Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge, sending large spans of the nearly 50-year-old steel structure tumbling into the river below.

First and foremost, the disaster might have human consequences, with rescuers as of Tuesday afternoon still searching the water for anyone missing.

Next will come months of soul-searching for answers to the bigger questions for politicians, industry executives and engineers. How did the bridge give way so easily? Who’s going to pay for the damage and how long will the fix take? Where was the backup steering system, the tugs to assist in exactly this kind of a late-night emergency, or the protective safety barriers around the support columns? Are the big ships of today too big to maneuver safely in old American seaports?

In the meantime, here’s what we know about the immediate economic fallout:

Baltimore isn’t a huge port for containers — about 3% of the total on the East and Gulf Coasts — but it handles the nation’s largest volume of automobiles, as well as a lot less-consumer-facing items like coal, gypsum and lumber. With total trade last year amounting to about $80 billion, every day Baltimore is closed is another $217 million that’s not crossing its docks.

Car companies like Ford and GM aren’t wasting time finding other routes for parts and vehicles. But the options may involve costlier transportation and longer shipping times: The nation’s No. 2 port for car carriers is in Brunswick, Georgia — about 700 miles south.

Farmers gearing up for planting season may also feel the impact. According to Dean Croke, principal industry analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics, Baltimore’s proximity to the Midwest’s major farm and construction equipment manufacturers “has helped it become the leading U.S. port for importing combines, tractors, hay balers, excavators, and backhoes.”

More

How Baltimore Key Bridge Collapse Will Impact the Supply Chain - Bloomberg

Factbox-Baltimore port: from coal to cars and cruise lines

March 26, 2024

LONDON (Reuters) - A major bridge collapsed in the U.S. port of Baltimore in the early hours of Tuesday after being struck by a container ship, plunging cars into the river below.

Traffic was suspended at the port until further notice, Maryland transportation authorities said.

PORT FEATURES

It is the deepest harbor in Maryland's Chesapeake Bay, closer to the Midwest than other East Coast ports, with five public and 12 private terminals, according to Maryland government website.

It is one of the smallest container ports on the Northeastern seaboard, handling 265,000 containers in the fourth quarter of last year, according to container shipping expert Lars Jensen.

The Port of New York and New Jersey handled around 2 million containers in that same period, and Norfolk Port in Virginia handled 850,000, so the flow of containers to Baltimore can likely be redistributed to bigger ports, Jensen said.

CURRENT STATUS OF CARGO SHIPS INSIDE PORT

More than 40 ships remained inside Baltimore port, including small cargo ships, tug boats and pleasure craft, data from ship tracking and maritime analytics provider MarineTraffic shows.

At least 30 other ships had signalled their destination was Baltimore, the data showed.

IMPORTS

It is the busiest U.S. port for car shipments, handling more than 750,000 vehicles in 2023, according to data from the Maryland Port Administration.

The port handles imports and exports for major automakers including Nissan, Toyota, General Motors, Volvo Car, Jaguar Land Rover and Volkswagen, including luxury models for Audi, Lamborghini and Bentley.

It is also the largest U.S. port by volume for handling farm and construction machinery, as well as agricultural products.

Imports of agricultural products totalled 3 million tonnes last year, including 1.2 million of sugar and salt, as well as gypsum, fertilisers and forest products, according to Ishan Bhanu, lead agricultural commodities analyst at Kpler.

Other top imports were paper/paperboard and plywood/veneer/particle board, the Maryland authority website shows.

EXPORTS

In 2023, the port was the second busiest for coal exports. Its eight dry bulk terminals exported 22 million tonnes of coal last year and small amounts of other metals and minerals, according to Kpler's Bhanu.

Other top export commodities by weight in 2022 were liquefied natural gas (LNG), wastepaper, ferrous scrap, and automobiles/light trucks, according to Maryland government data.

Cove Point, which is upstream from the bridge, is the nearest LNG terminal. ICIS ship tracking data show Cove Point typically exports about 500,000 tonnes per month.

CRUISE SHIPS

It is also a cruise terminal, with operators Norwegian, Carnival and Royal Caribbean, all using the port for Caribbean, Canadian, and other Atlantic destinations.

In 2023, cruises carrying more than 444,000 passengers departed from the port, the Maryland government website says.

LONDON METAL EXCHANGE WAREHOUSES

In Baltimore warehouses registered with the London Metal Exchange, there are 756 metric tons of nickel, 150 tons of tin and 50 tons of copper, LME data shows.

Factbox-Baltimore port: from coal to cars and cruise lines (yahoo.com)

Finally, will commodities boom if/as the central banks cut interest rates?

Goldman Says Commodities to Gain as Central Banks Cut Rates

Copper, aluminum and oil products forecast to see best returns

Bank’s view echoes upbeat outlooks at Macquarie, Carlyle Group

By Yongchang Chin

March 25, 2024 at 2:35 AM GMT Updated on  March 25, 2024 at 8:31 AM GMT

Commodities will advance this year as central banks in the US and Europe move to reduce interest rates, helping to support industrial and consumer demand, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Raw materials may return 15% over 2024 as borrowing costs come down, manufacturing recovers, and geopolitical risks persist, analysts including Samantha Dart and Daan Struyven said in a March 24 note. Copper, aluminum, gold and oil products may climb, according to the bank, which also stressed the need for investors to be selective as gains wouldn’t be universal.

Goldman Says Commodities to Benefit as Fed, More Central Banks Cut Rates - Bloomberg

Cocoa Is More Expensive Than Copper as It Tops $10,000

New York futures have climbed about 60% in March alone

Supply shortages grip the market, boosting chocolate costs

March 25, 2024 at 10:22 AM GMT

Updated on March 25, 2024 at 6:06 PM GMT

Subscription required.

Cocoa Tops $9,000 Mark for First Time on Global Supply Crunch - Bloomberg

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

EU industry on brink of 'collapse' as China economic plans set to cause chaos

March 26, 2024

China's economic moves are causing trouble for EU industries, experts have warned. Beijing's efforts to rely less on the West for trade by boosting its own manufacturing and technology are making things tough for European businesses.

Before the EU even talked about reducing ties with China, Beijing was already trying to rely less on Western markets.

But this has led to fewer imports from China, like solar panels and electric cars, which has made prices drop worldwide. European leaders and businesses are accusing China of "dumping" goods, meaning selling them below cost.

Alicia García-Herrero, a senior fellow at a think tank in Brussels, says China's focus on securing its own supply chains means fewer European products are sold there.

This is hitting countries like Germany hard, which rely a lot on selling goods abroad.

Plus, because Chinese people aren't buying as much, prices are dropping globally, making it harder for European products to compete.

Philip Lausberg, an analyst, calls China's strategy "neo-mercantilist", saying it's bad for Europe because China wants to produce everything itself, hurting European exports.

Recent numbers show EU industries are struggling, with industrial output falling by 5.7 percent in January and nearly one million manufacturing jobs lost in the past four years.

The EU Chamber of Commerce in China says the situation is like a slow train crash in EU-China relations. They're calling for talks between the EU and China to fix the problem.

Meanwhile, at a forum in China, the IMF chief urged China to focus more on its own people buying things, but some doubt China will listen.

As tensions rise between China and the West, including Europe, experts say it's part of a bigger picture of countries becoming more protective of their own interests.

EU industry on brink of 'collapse' as China economic plans set to cause chaos (msn.com)

Grocery price inflation drops to new two-year low

March 26, 2024

Grocery price inflation has dropped to a new two-year low but almost a quarter of British households say they are still struggling financially, according to latest figures.

Supermarket prices were 4.5% higher than a year ago in March, the lowest inflation rate since February 2022 and a significant drop from last month’s 5.3%, according to analysts Kantar.

Despite the continued slowdown, 23% of British households identify themselves as struggling financially – the same proportion as in November last year, according to a survey by Kantar Worldpanel of more than 10,700 people at the end of January.

Despite this continued slowdown, many British households are still feeling the squeeze.

Among those feeling the most pressured, 78% are actively buying cheaper groceries while 68% are using promotions to help manage budgets, with £605 million more spent on deals this month than in March last year.

Sales of branded goods pushed ahead of own label products in March. However, premium own-label lines grew by a “whopping” 16.1% this month – the quickest rate seen by Kantar in almost three years.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, said: “Grocery inflation has come down significantly since hitting an eye-watering peak of 17% in March 2023.

---- Financial woes have not stopped consumers spending £88 million more on Easter treats in the first three months of this year than last year, with volume sales of hot cross buns up by 15%, although the event falls 10 days earlier this year than last year.

Take-home grocery sales in general overall rose by 4.6% over the four weeks to March 17.

More

Grocery price inflation drops to new two-year low (msn.com)

KPMG: Bank of England ‘will cut interest rate four times this year’
Accounting giant claims Governor Andrew Bailey and the Bank of England must cut interest rates quickly or the economy will suffer.

David Callaghan  26th March 2024

The Bank of England (BoE) will cut its base interest rate four times this year, a major financial firm has predicted.

 

KPMG warns that without several rate cuts soon the UK economy will struggle to grow, a fact that it predicts will drive the BoE to take action multiple times.

ALMOST UNANIMOUS

The Bank held the base interest rate at 5.25% in its latest decision, with an almost unanimous vote.

 

Members of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Andrew Bailey (main picture) voted 8-1 in favour of keeping the current rate despite a falling inflation figure.

Inflation fell to its lowest level in more than two years at 3.4%, increasing the pressure on the Bank to cut the base rate.

NOT YET

Bailey said it is “not yet” the time to cut interest rates, despite “further encouraging signs” that inflation is coming down.

 

The Bank has to be sure that inflation will reach the Government’s 2% target and “stay there”, he said.

WEAKNESS

But KPMG says: “Delaying interest rate cuts could compound the ongoing weakness in the economy.”

 

Meanwhile, financial markets believe the Bank will lower the base rate three times this year, starting in June, The Times reports.

 

Last week was the first time that no members of the committee voted to increase interest rates since September 2021.

NEARLY A MILLION

In February, the MPC voted by a majority of 6–3 to maintain the rate at 5.25%. Two members preferred to increase the rate by 0.25%, to 5.5%. One member voted to reduce the rate by 0.25%, to 5%.

 

Nearly a million mortgage holders are expected to come off fixed mortgage rates this year.

KPMG: Bank of England 'will cut interest rate four times this year' (thenegotiator.co.uk)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

No update today. Normal service resume tomorrow, hopefully.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

NVIDIA to create AI ‘agents’ that outperform human nurses

By Paul McClure  March 25, 2024

NVIDIA has partnered with Hippocratic AI to develop AI-powered ‘healthcare agents’ that have already been shown to outperform other large language models and human nurses in specific tasks. Will these agents help ease the global healthcare worker shortage, or will they lead to more problems?

Workforce shortages are simply an imbalance between need and supply. In healthcare, this equates to not being able to provide the right number of people with the right skills in the right places to provide the right services to the right people.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated a projected shortfall of 10 million health workers by 2030, mostly in low- and middle-income countries. However, the pinch produced by shortages is already being felt in rural and remote settings in high-income countries like the US and Australia. Ostensibly addressing the global healthcare staffing crisis, NVIDIA recently announced their partnership with Hippocratic AI to develop generative AI-powered ‘healthcare agents’.

“With generative AI, we have the opportunity to address some of the most pressing needs of the healthcare industry,” said Munjal Shah, cofounder and CEO of Hippocratic AI. “We can help mitigate widespread staffing shortages and increase access to high-quality care – all while improving outcomes for patients. NIVIDIA’s technology stack is critical to achieving the conversational speed and fluidity necessary for patients to naturally build an emotional connection with Hippocratic’s Generative AI Healthcare Agents.”

The agents build on Polaris, Hippocratic’s safety-focused large language model (LLM), the first designed for real-time patient-AI healthcare conversations. Polaris’ one-trillion parameter ‘constellation system’ combines a primary LLM agent that drives patient-friendly conversation and several specialist support agents focused on healthcare tasks performed by nurses, social workers, and nutritionists to increase safety and reduce AI hallucinations. They’re connected to NVIDIA Avatar Cloud Engine (ACE) microservers and use NVIDIA Inference Microservice, or NIM, for low-latency inferencing and speech recognition, and were unveiled at the recent NVIDIA GTC.

---- Hippocratic has already tested Polaris’ capabilities, recruiting US-licensed nurses and physicians to perform end-to-end conversational evaluations of the system by posing as patients. The company says that, compared to OpenAI’s ChatGPT-4 and LLaMA-2 70B and flesh-and-blood nurses, Polaris outperformed them all in terms of safety benchmarks. The results are available on the open-access repository arXiv.

More

NVIDIA to create AI ‘agents’ that outperform human nurses (newatlas.com)

Finally, our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Socialists have always spent much of their time seeking new titles for their beliefs, because the old versions so quickly become outdated and discredited. 

Margaret Thatcher.